INDIA-PAKISTAN: A PRE-POLL CHARADE

 

 

B.RAMAN

It was reported in our media after a press briefing by Gen.Bikram Singh, our Chief of the Army Staff (COAS),on January 14,2013, that intruding Pakistani troops had carried out two beheadings of Indian soldiers even in 2011. For reasons unclear, neither the Government of India nor the opposition nor the media  chose to publicise this incident. It was kept a well-guarded secret. There was no public outrage and this incident did not impact on the on-going dialogue between the two countries.

2.On January 8,2013, some Pakistani troops intruded into Indian territory in the Jammu area, killed two Indian soldiers and beheaded one of them. The details of the barbaric act were given wide publicity, discussed in no-rhetoric-barred TV debates and gave rise to public outrage and tough talk by the COAS. The opposition spearheaded by the BJP sought to exploit the public outrage for partisan political purposes.

3. Why this difference in our reactions to the 2011 and 2013 beheadings? The answer is simple. In 2011, the election year 2014 was far away. In 2013, it is just a few months away. There may be votes to be gained by fanning further and exploiting the public outrage. The BJP was the first to jump into the fray for indulging in the game of politicization of the barbaric act in order to reiterate its demand, which has broad public support, for a strong response to Pakistan, even if it meant freezing of the bilateral dialogue. A  number of senior retired civilian and military officers joined the war dance promoted by our TV channels. Anyone who kept out of this war dance was ridiculed as a softie.

4.It is against this background that one should analyse the seeming metamorphosis of  our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh on January 15. On the occasion of a function to observe the annual Army Day, one saw a transformation of Dr.Manmohan Singh from a man of eternal goodwill to Pakistan to one of tough talk and action.

5.In his chat with a group of journalists at the function, he was reported to have stated that those Pakistanis responsible for the barbaric act will have to be brought to book and that  “it cannot be business as usual with Pakistan.” Simultaneously, the Government chose to send three messages of a new activism on Pakistan to the Pakistani Government. These were the decision to defer the implementation of the introduction of visa on arrival for senior citizens from Pakistan, premature termination of a visit of Pakistani hockey players and cancellation of the participation of some Pakistani women cricketeers in an Indian tournament.

6.These measures, which are inconsequential, have been projected as signs of a new toughness in the Government’s attitude to Pakistan. The Government has also sought to open a dialogue with the BJP towards a national consensus on our response to the barbaric act of Pakistan

7. The new Government activism and toughness seem to be more opportunistic and tactical than genuine and strategic. Any euphoria that the Government has at last woken up to the ground reality of a hostile Pakistan will be unwarranted . It is essentially a pre-poll charade to deny the BJP any pre-poll gains due to the public outrage. The charade will continue till the public outrage continues. Thereafter, we will again be back to business as usual.

8. A “Jaise The” (As You Were) can be prevented only by the public and the opposition continuing to keep up the pressure on the Government without letting themselves be disarmed by the seeming new toughness.

9.While the strategic dialogue with Pakistan should continue, the Government should demonstrate its earnestness by announcing some policy initiatives in consultation with the opposition. One such policy initiative will be an announcement to revive and revamp the covert action division of the intelligence community without specifically linking the action to Pakistan. (16-1-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies, Twitter: @SORBONNE75  )

NEGLECT OF WELFARE & HONOUR OF EX-SERVICEMEN

B.RAMAN

 

The barbaric Pakistani attack on Indian soldiers in the Jammu area on January 8,2013, and the brutal killing and mutilation of two soldiers with one of them beheaded called for a three-pronged response:

·     An exercise to express the solidarity of the nation with the families of the martyred soldiers and  to initiate action to maintain their honour and dignity. This should have been the responsibility of the Prime Minister’s Office which should have taken a series of gestures like the PM visiting the families of the martyred soldiers, asking one of his senior officers to represent him at their cremation, a televised address to the armed forces to assure them of the solidarity of the nation and working for an all-party consensus on the subject to prevent partisan exploitation of the issue. One has an impression that  these important aspects were totally neglected by the PM and his entourage.

·     A second exercise to determine how the Pakistanis were able to carry out this barbaric attack well inside Indian territory without resistance from the Indian troops posted in the area and to tighten up the prevention  of trans-LOC violations. This was the total tactical responsibility of the Army. In his media briefing on January 14, Gen.Bikram Singh the Chief of the Army Staff, firmly and lucidly explained the action taken by the Army in this regard. He clearly explained that trans-LOC aggressions will be dealt with aggressively and offensively with appropriate retaliation not ruled out as an option. The Army, which has been entrusted by the Government with the responsibility for protecting the LOC, is empowered to take whatever measures are necessary and the COAS made it clear that it will do so.

·     The third exercise was to ensure that the Pakistan Army’s tactical barbarity across the LOC did not seriously disrupt the strategic dialogue between the political leaderships of the two countries. This has been competently handled by the Foreign Office.

2. In my view, the serious deficiency  has been with regard to the first exercise due to lack of appropriate leadership initiatives from the Ministry of Defence and the PMO. In cases like this, taking initiatives for reassuring the forces of national solidarity and for building up a national consensus is the responsibility of the head of the Government. In the US, whenever  the Armed Forces suffer a serious set-back, it is the President who steps forward and exercises leadership in dealing with the situation instead of leaving it to his Defence Secretary. So too in other Western countries.

3.Dr.Manmohan Singh, who prefers to operate from the background instead of from the forefront, chose to let the Defence Minister handle the first exercise. He failed to handle it himself. As a result, there was no leadership either from the Defece Minister or the PM. This created an unfortunate impression of neglect and indifference in the minds of the relatives of the martyred soldiers and possibly in the minds of other soldiers too.

4. The inept handling of the first exercise has again drawn attention to the insensitivity, indifference and casualness with which successive Governments have been handling matters relating to the welfare and honour of our ex-servicemen, whether retired or martyred. This needs urgent corrective steps. The over-all responsibility in this matter should be transferred to the PMO and the PM should set up a standing Task Force to deal with the welfare and honour of our ex-servicemen, retired or martyred. ( 15-1-13)

 

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

KEEPING PRESSURE ON PAKISTAN

India must expose Pakistan Army’s dubious role - The Economic Times http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/guest-writer/india-must-expose-pakistan-armys-dubious-role/articleshow/18012078.cms …

FRANCE STRENGTHENS HOMELAND SECURITY AGAINST AFRICAN AL QAEDA

B.RAMAN

 

( To be read in continuation of my article of July 11,2012, titled “Spectre of A  Neo Al Qaeda Haunts Africa” at  http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?281615 )

 

French President Francois Hollande has ordered the strengthening of homeland security in France following threats of retaliation by Ansar Dine, an African affiliate of Al Qaeda, which has established control over Northern Mali.

2. It issued the threat of retaliation against French citizens anywhere after French troops and Air Force units went into action on January 11,2013, in Mali, to help the troops of interim Mali President Dioncounda Traore retake the strategically important town of Konna which had been reportedly captured by the Islamists.

3. Reports from Mali indicate that this town has since been freed by the Mali troops with French air support. One French helicopter pilot was reported to have been killed in the air action.

4.The short-term objectives of the French intervention seem to be to prevent the jihadi terrorists from expanding the area under their control, to strengthen the morale and capability of the Malian troops and to protect the local French residents numbering about 6000, mostly in the capital Bamako. The long-term objective is to roll back the jihadi terrorists and free the area presently under their control.

5.While the French action in Mali has gone on without any major mishap except the death of the pilot, a simultaneous but unconnected  commando raid undertaken by French commandos in Somalia to free a French hostage held in captivity since 2009 by al-Shabab, the Somali affiliate of Al Qaeda, seems to have failed with both the commandos and possibly the hostage too being killed. However, Al Shabab has not confirmed the death of the hostage.

6.The failure of the raid in Somalia seems to have been due to inadequate intelligence and poor planning.

7. The French will be operating in Mali side by side with a pan-African force whose intervention has been authorized by the UN. The French intervention had been expected for some time since the French were increasingly concerned over the implications of the activities of the jihadi terrorists for the protection of their strategic and economic interests in Africa and for their homeland security.

8. The French face two kinds of threats. The first threat is more in the nature of a Taliban-style insurgency in Mali. The second is more in the style of Al Qaeda style terrorism in the French Homeland. They, therefore, have to use both their counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency capabilities.

9.The jihadi terrorists’ threat of a retaliation against French nationals has to be taken seriously since the large number of persons of African origin in France will provide the terrorists a reservoir for recruitment of jihadi volunteers. They do have the capability for retaliation, but the question is how soon can they retaliate.

10.The French will be worried about the safety of eight  hostages still in the custody of the Islamists in different countries. After the failure of the rescue operation in Somalia, the chances of success in other countries will be doubtful.

11. Osama bin Laden’s main targets were the US, Afghanistan, Pakistan as a sanctuary, Yemen, Saudi Arabia  and Somalia. He did not give priority to French targets and interests, His successor Ayman al-Zawahiri has been talking for many months of the need for an African front and was showing interest in the French Homeland as a target.

12. Even though France has drawn down its presence in Afghanistan, Zawahiri would still be interested in France as a target to strengthen the North African front of the international jihad. ( 13-1-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

SHIA ANGER AGAINST GEN.KAYANI

B.RAMAN

 

The genocide of the Shias continues unabated in different parts of Pakistan--- particularly in Balochistan, Gilgit, the Kurram Agency and Karachi. The security forces and the intelligence agencies have been unable to prevent frequent massacres of the Shias in these areas and to crush the activities of the Sunni extremist Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), which has been openly admitting responsibility for these massacres.

2.The Police controlled by the Ministry of the Interior headed by Mr.Rehman Malik, is supposed to be responsible for controlling the activities of the LEJ, but it has not been able to. Different security agencies---the Army, the para-military forces, the police, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and the Interior Ministry---have dissociated themselves from responsibility for inaction against the LEJ and for the failure to  protect the Shias.

3.The Army has not accepted the demand of the Hazara Shias of Balochistan, who are the worst affected, that it should take over the responsibility for their protection. As a result, the Hazara Shia anger, which was initially directed against the security forces/agencies as a whole, is increasingly getting focused on the Army as an institution and Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), as its chief.

4.The extent of this anger against Gen.Kayani has become evident after the massacre of over 100 Hazara Shias of Quetta on January 10 during two explosions targeting a local snooker hall located in a Hazara Shia area. It has been reported that the relatives of the Shias killed have refused to have their bodies buried till the Army takes over the responsibility for their protection and assures their safety.

5.The “Dawn” of Karachi ( January 12) has quoted Maulana Amin Shaheedi, a  Shia leader, as telling a press conference: “I ask the army chief: What have you done with these extra three years you got (in office). What did you give us except more deaths?” The burials had been scheduled to take place after Friday prayers but the Shia leaders said the bodies would remain in place until the Shias receive promises of protection.“They will not be buried until the army comes into Quetta,” he said.

6.The “Dawn” has quoted Ali Dayan Hasan of the Human Rights Watch as saying:“Last year was the bloodiest year for Shias in living memory. More than 400 were killed and if yesterday’s attack is any indication, it is just going to get worse.”

 7.The Army’s focus has been on crushing the Baloch freedom struggle. It is not prepared to divert its resources in Balochistan for protecting the Hazara Shias. Moreover, the fact that the Hazaras originally migrated to Pakistan from Afghanistan has created a certain lack of interest in the Army in protecting them. Initially, they migrated to Afghanistan from Iran. They have Persian features and speak a Persian dialect.

8.The Hazara Shias have also been suffering due to the fact that while there is sectarian solidarity among the Shias of Pakistan, there is very little ethnic solidarity between the Shias of Afghan origin and native Pakistani Shias.

9.In the past, Shia anger against individual officers of the Army had led to the assassination of Lt.Gen Fazle Haq, a close associate of Gen.Zia-ul-Haq in 1991. He used to be the Martial Law Administrator of the then North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). He also co-ordinated the training of the Afghan Mujahideen. The Shias allegedly killed him because of his suspected involvement in the assassination of a respected Shia cleric.

10. The death of Zia in a plane crash in August 1988 was itself suspected to have been due to Shia anger over a massacre of the Shias in Gilgit in the beginning of that year.

11. The Army also ought to be worried about the impact of the anger of the Hazara Shias against Gen.Kayani on the Shias serving in the Armed Forces but the Pakistani security agencies seem to believe that the anger of the Hazara Shias against Kayani may not infect the native Pakistani Shias. This belief may be belied if the massacres of the Hazara Shias continue. Ultimately, sectarian solidarity may prevail over ethnic differences. ( 12-1-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies.Twitter : @SORBONNE75)

 

 

INDIA-PAKISTAN DIALOGUE

India-Pakistan dialogue must continue http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/indiapakistan-dialogue-must-continue/article4291266.ece … via @the_hindu

TRANS-LOC INCIDENTS IN J & K : AN ASSESSMENT

B.RAMAN

 

There have been two very serious  incidents across the Line of Control (LOC) in Jammu and Kashmir.

·      PAKISTANI STATEMENT: One Pakistani soldier was killed on January 6,2013, in an alleged Indian raid on a Pakistani Army post. On January 7, the Pakistani Foreign Office in Islamabad protested over the incident to the Indian Deputy High Commissioner. According to the Indian version of this incident, on January 6,Pakistani troops fired mortar shells at Indian Army posts in the Uri sector to help insurgents infiltrate into India. The Indian Army had retaliated.

·      INDIAN STATEMENT: Two Indian soldiers were killed and two others injured on the morning of January 8, when Pakistani army troops entered Indian territory near Mendhar, about 220 KMs north of Jammu, and attacked an Indian post. The body of one of the Indian soldiers was found decapitated and the severed head was missing. The Pakistani Army has denied the allegations and described them as Indian propaganda to divert attention from the incident of Jan.6.

2.There was a similar incident of decapitation when Gen.Pervez Musharraf was the Chief of the Army Staf (COAS) under then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 1999.Ilyas Kashmiri,a former member of the Special Services Group (SSG) of the Pakistan Army, and his men entered Indian territory, killed an Indian soldier, decapitated him and carried his head as a trophy to Pakistan. He allegedly presented the head to Musharraf who congratulated him and his men and rewarded them. The incident was reported in sections of the Pakistan-Occupied  Kashmir media.

3.Musharraf’s action in receiving Ilyas Kashmiri and rewarding him indicated the Pakistan Army’s complicity in the incident. The Indian Army reportedly  believes strongly that there was Pakistan Army’s complicity in the latest incident too.

4.The two incidents indicate the continuing fragile and sensitive nature of the trans-LOC ground realities. The incidents appear to have been handled till now at the Army-Army level through the existing hotline between the Directors-General of Military Operations of the two countries.

5.The serious nature of the latest incidents underline the need for a political hotline between the Prime Minister of India and the President of Pakistan to supplement the existing hotline between the DGMOs to ensure prompt political handling of such trans-LOC incidents amenable to escalation detrimental to peace in the area. ( 9-1-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  . Twitter: @SORBONNE75  )