B.RAMAN
There has been an unwarranted satisfaction and even glee among sections of our analysts over recent indications of difficulties in the relations between the US and Pakistani Armed Forces and between the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
2.The articulation of US dissatisfaction and concern over Pakistan's half-hearted action against terrorists operating from North Waziristan, over its continued support to the Jallaudin Haqqani faction of the Afghan Taliban, which was previously operating from North Waziristan, but now operates from Kurram, over the collusion of Pakistani military and intelligence officers with the Afghan Taliban and over the difficulties created by it in allowing Raymong Davis, a member of the technical and administrative staff of the US Consulate-General in Lahore, allegedly involved in the murder of two Pakistanis, to go back to the US have created perceptions of serious difficulties in the US relations with Pakistan.
3. Speculative stories and negative public comments about Pakistan emanating from US officials and sources during the recent visits of Lt.Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the Director-General of the ISI, and Salman Bashir, the Pakistani Foreign Secretary, to the US and Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman, US Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Pakistan have strengthened these perceptions.
4. Periodic emergence of difficulties in the relations between the two countries has been there ever since the Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan in 1988. One saw such spells of difficulties after then President George Bush Sr invoked the Pressler Amendment against Pakistan post-1988 and imposed economic sanctions because of Pakistan's clandestine acquisition of a military nuclear capability, when then President Bill Clinton placed Pakistan on a list of suspected State-sponsors of international terrorism for six months in 1993 and forced Nawaz Sharif, the then Prime Minister, to sack Lt-Gen.Javed Nasir, the then DG of the ISI, and some of his senior colleagues for allegedly not co-operating in the re-purchase of the unused Stinger missiles from the Afghan Mujahideen, when Clinton imposed additional economic sanctions after Gen.Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999 and publicly snubbed him during a visit to Pakistan next year, and when then President George Bush forced Musharraf to remove Lt.Gen. Mahmood Ahmed, then DG of the ISI, from his post and transfer Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the then Chief of the General Staff, from the GHQ to Lahore because of their suspected links with the Afghan Taliban before the US started its military operations against the Taliban in October,2001, and when Bush repeatedly turned down a Pakistani request for signing a civil nuclear co-operation agreement with it similar to the agreement signed with India.
5. The US did not allow such difficulties to affect a certain strategic permanence in its relations with Pakistan arising from its strategic location, the long years of military-military and intelligence-intelligence relations between the countries which have served to some extent the national interests of the two countries and the important role which Pakistan could play in maintaining stability in Afghanistan. This permanence has been further strengthened by the US realisation that co-operation from Pakistan is essential for maintaining homeland security.
6. The enhanced Drone (pilotless plane) strikes against terrorist hide-outs in the two Waziristans since Barack Obama came to office in January 2009, have highlighted two ground realities. Firstly, the US has the capability to achieve significant success in its counter-terrorism operations on its own even without the co-operation of the Pakistani Army and the ISI. Secondly, despite this, it cannot achieve complete success without the effective co-operation of Pakistan.
7. The US has always followed a policy of carrot and stick for making Pakistan co-operate. While it does not hesitate to use the stick when it considers it necessary in its interests, it takes care to ensure that the use of the stick does not seriously damage the strategic permanence in its relations with Pakistan. The US will maintain this strategic permanence whatever be the temporary tactical difficulties in the relationship. ( 24-4-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, April 23, 2011
POLICE FOIL A NEW BOMB PLOT IN JAKARTA
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 709
B.RAMAN
The Indonesian Police seem to have foiled a bomb plot, which was to target Christians on Good Friday ( April 22,2011), following the arrest of 19 suspects---many of them university students--- during an investigation into some recent incidents in which unidentified elements had sent improvised explosive devices (IEDs) concealed in books to some persons in different parts of the country, including police officers.
2. While the arrests were made initially in connection with the investigation of the book bombs, the interrogation of those arrested led to the detection of a plot by some of the very same elements to cause an explosion in a Catholic church at Tangerang on the outskirts of Jakarta during Good Friday prayers through a timed IED to be activated through a mobile phone. Confirmation of the details of the plot as ascertained during the interrogation of some of the arrested suspects came when the police recovered about 150 kilos of explosives at a spot near the church.
3. The Agence France Press (AFP) has quoted Anton Bachrul Alam, a spokesperson of the National Police, as saying: "This is a new cell. The mastermind had planned to activate the bombs on Friday at 9:00am (0200 GMT) using timers." The police are reportedly investigating whether any of those arrested might have had a link with an incident last week in which a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a mosque located within the compound of the police lines in the city of Cirebon in West Java, injuring 30 people with no reported fatalities.
4. According to some reports, those involved in the plot to cause an explosion inside the church, had also planned to target an army weapons warehouse at Serpong in the same area. Anti-terrorism officials have been quoted by news agencies as saying that they have so far no evidence of any link between these men and known terrorism or Islamist groups. Investigators seem to be treating a 2006 explosion in an A & W restaurant in East Jakarta, a subsequent bicycle bomb explosion at Bekasi, , the book bombings and the Good Friday plot as stand-alone terrorist incidents or conspiracies with no established or suspected links with other terrorist incidents with established links to Jemma Islamiyah and other similar organizations. The Cirebon bomb suicide bomber has had links with JI elements. At the same time, the police seem to believe that the persons detained for interrogation were not self-motivated, but motivated by unidentified clerics through the Internet.
5. However, Ansyaad Mbai, head of Indonesia’s National Counter-Terrorism Agency, has said that “all the suspects in those cases are somehow related to mainstream figures or groups.” He gave the examples of the Indonesian Islamic State (NII) movement, the JI, Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid and other radical groups. “There are two types of radical groups, the terrorist and non-terrorist.They seem to be separate cases, but at one level such as in Aceh, they’re united and all the groups meet there. They are inspired by the mainstream groups.”
6. The Indonesian Police would do well to investigate whether the suspects recently arrested could have been from a new breed of volunteers inspired and indoctrinated by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In this connection, reference is invited to my article of July 7,2010, titled “ Singapore & Al Qaeda” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3910.html
7. Pepi Fernando, 30, the alleged mastermind, financier and bomb maker behind the Good Friday bomb plot and book bombs,is reported to be married to a member of the staff of the National Narcotics Agency (BNN). He is a graduate of the Syarif Hidayatullah Islamic University (UIN) with a major in Islamic Religious Education. He and two others were arrested in Aceh. He was originally from Sukabumi in West Java. He was reportedly running a small business establishment selling watches and books. He is reported to have told the police that he learnt about bomb-making from Internet sites. He is also reported to have admitted that he assembled the bomb that exploded without causing any casualties outside the Research Center for Science and Technology (Puspiptek) in Serpong in March last and a bomb that was found subsequently at Cibubur.
8.The 19 suspects were arrested at seven different places---One in Rawamangun [East Jakarta], three in Aceh, five in Bogor, three in Kramat Jati [East Jakarta], five in Pondok Kopi [East Jakarta], one in Bekasi and one in Tanggerang. It has been reported that of the five arrested in Bogor, four were related to each other.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The Indonesian Police seem to have foiled a bomb plot, which was to target Christians on Good Friday ( April 22,2011), following the arrest of 19 suspects---many of them university students--- during an investigation into some recent incidents in which unidentified elements had sent improvised explosive devices (IEDs) concealed in books to some persons in different parts of the country, including police officers.
2. While the arrests were made initially in connection with the investigation of the book bombs, the interrogation of those arrested led to the detection of a plot by some of the very same elements to cause an explosion in a Catholic church at Tangerang on the outskirts of Jakarta during Good Friday prayers through a timed IED to be activated through a mobile phone. Confirmation of the details of the plot as ascertained during the interrogation of some of the arrested suspects came when the police recovered about 150 kilos of explosives at a spot near the church.
3. The Agence France Press (AFP) has quoted Anton Bachrul Alam, a spokesperson of the National Police, as saying: "This is a new cell. The mastermind had planned to activate the bombs on Friday at 9:00am (0200 GMT) using timers." The police are reportedly investigating whether any of those arrested might have had a link with an incident last week in which a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a mosque located within the compound of the police lines in the city of Cirebon in West Java, injuring 30 people with no reported fatalities.
4. According to some reports, those involved in the plot to cause an explosion inside the church, had also planned to target an army weapons warehouse at Serpong in the same area. Anti-terrorism officials have been quoted by news agencies as saying that they have so far no evidence of any link between these men and known terrorism or Islamist groups. Investigators seem to be treating a 2006 explosion in an A & W restaurant in East Jakarta, a subsequent bicycle bomb explosion at Bekasi, , the book bombings and the Good Friday plot as stand-alone terrorist incidents or conspiracies with no established or suspected links with other terrorist incidents with established links to Jemma Islamiyah and other similar organizations. The Cirebon bomb suicide bomber has had links with JI elements. At the same time, the police seem to believe that the persons detained for interrogation were not self-motivated, but motivated by unidentified clerics through the Internet.
5. However, Ansyaad Mbai, head of Indonesia’s National Counter-Terrorism Agency, has said that “all the suspects in those cases are somehow related to mainstream figures or groups.” He gave the examples of the Indonesian Islamic State (NII) movement, the JI, Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid and other radical groups. “There are two types of radical groups, the terrorist and non-terrorist.They seem to be separate cases, but at one level such as in Aceh, they’re united and all the groups meet there. They are inspired by the mainstream groups.”
6. The Indonesian Police would do well to investigate whether the suspects recently arrested could have been from a new breed of volunteers inspired and indoctrinated by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In this connection, reference is invited to my article of July 7,2010, titled “ Singapore & Al Qaeda” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3910.html
7. Pepi Fernando, 30, the alleged mastermind, financier and bomb maker behind the Good Friday bomb plot and book bombs,is reported to be married to a member of the staff of the National Narcotics Agency (BNN). He is a graduate of the Syarif Hidayatullah Islamic University (UIN) with a major in Islamic Religious Education. He and two others were arrested in Aceh. He was originally from Sukabumi in West Java. He was reportedly running a small business establishment selling watches and books. He is reported to have told the police that he learnt about bomb-making from Internet sites. He is also reported to have admitted that he assembled the bomb that exploded without causing any casualties outside the Research Center for Science and Technology (Puspiptek) in Serpong in March last and a bomb that was found subsequently at Cibubur.
8.The 19 suspects were arrested at seven different places---One in Rawamangun [East Jakarta], three in Aceh, five in Bogor, three in Kramat Jati [East Jakarta], five in Pondok Kopi [East Jakarta], one in Bekasi and one in Tanggerang. It has been reported that of the five arrested in Bogor, four were related to each other.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
THE PHILOSOPHY
( A free translation of Greek singer Georges Moustaki's French chanson inspired by the life of gypsies.Very popular in the Latin Quarter of Paris in the 1970s. How many times she and I had attended his concert and sung with him! How passionately we lived in an utopia of our own creation! The utopia came down crashing in November 1978 when she left me to marry someone who did not believe in this philosophy. I am 74. She must be 60. I often wonder--- Where is she? Does she still remember me sometimes? Does she hum this chanson sometimes as I do when I think of her?Does she remember the long walks we used to take together on the banks of the Seine river past midnight every Saturday? Does she remember our days together in the Sorbonne?---B.Raman)
It's a nice band of merry revelers
Who go to bed at dawn and rise late
Thinking only of love or playing guitar
They have in life only this philosophy
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
They do nothing more than to celebrate each moment
They welcome the full moon, celebrate spring
For work they do not have much time
They have in life only this philosophy
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
And I recognize myself in them often enough
Like them I waste my life to the winds
And I tell myself they are my brothers or my children
They have in life only this philosophy.
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
If they are with you, look at their good life
How they're mad, how they're drunk
Their only folly, is wanting to be free
They have in life only this philosophy.
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
Even as they grow old they are what they are
Lovers of the strange ways of Utopia.
Lovers, poets, makers of songs
They have in life only this philosophy.
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
It's a nice band of merry revelers
Who go to bed at dawn and rise late
Thinking only of love or playing guitar
They have in life only this philosophy
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
They do nothing more than to celebrate each moment
They welcome the full moon, celebrate spring
For work they do not have much time
They have in life only this philosophy
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
And I recognize myself in them often enough
Like them I waste my life to the winds
And I tell myself they are my brothers or my children
They have in life only this philosophy.
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
If they are with you, look at their good life
How they're mad, how they're drunk
Their only folly, is wanting to be free
They have in life only this philosophy.
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
Even as they grow old they are what they are
Lovers of the strange ways of Utopia.
Lovers, poets, makers of songs
They have in life only this philosophy.
We have a lifetime to have fun
We are going to rest after death.
Let us spend our lifetime in fun
We will rest after death.
I WILL SURVIVE
I will survive
as long as i know how to love
I know I will stay alive
I've got all my life to live
I've got all my love to give
and I'll survive
I will survive
It took all the strength I had
not to fall apart
kept trying hard to mend
the pieces of my broken heart
and I spent oh so many nights
just feeling sorry for myself
I used to cry
Now I hold my head up high
and you see me
somebody new
I'm not that chained up little person
still in love with you
and so you felt like dropping in
and just expect me to be free
now I'm saving all my loving
for someone who's loving me
---- Lines from Gloria Gaynor's "I will Survive" (October 1978).I was then living in Paris. Love to hear it sung by my favourite Filippino singer of Bangkok when I am through my third S & S.Last heard her sing it for me on September 26,2009. Since then have not been back to BKK. B.Raman
as long as i know how to love
I know I will stay alive
I've got all my life to live
I've got all my love to give
and I'll survive
I will survive
It took all the strength I had
not to fall apart
kept trying hard to mend
the pieces of my broken heart
and I spent oh so many nights
just feeling sorry for myself
I used to cry
Now I hold my head up high
and you see me
somebody new
I'm not that chained up little person
still in love with you
and so you felt like dropping in
and just expect me to be free
now I'm saving all my loving
for someone who's loving me
---- Lines from Gloria Gaynor's "I will Survive" (October 1978).I was then living in Paris. Love to hear it sung by my favourite Filippino singer of Bangkok when I am through my third S & S.Last heard her sing it for me on September 26,2009. Since then have not been back to BKK. B.Raman
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