B.RAMAN
The elected MsP belonging to Aung San Suu Kyi’s
NationaL League for Democracy (NLD) took their seats as newly elected members
of the lower House of the Myanmar Parliament when its session began at
Naypyidaw on July 4,2012. Suu Kyi, who was also to take the oath the same day,
could not do so due to reported exhaustion after her 18-day, five-nation tour
of Europe which ended on June 29. She is expected to get going later
this week.
2. One saw a self-confident, but cautious Suu Kyi
during her triumphant tour of Europe
during which she accepted the Nobel Prize for Peace at a function at Oslo and
was honoured wherever she went. She was given the honours due to a head of
State. The Western Governments and people made no secret of their admiration
for her.
3. At the same time, one could discern a feeling of
anxiety ---particularly in London and Paris---- that the lionisation of Suu Kyi
by the Western world could create difficulties for her in her relations with
the Government and the Army in Myanmar. Suspicion of Western motives in backing
her is believed to be high in the Myanmar Army.
4.That was why during her visit to the UK and
France, the local Governments announced their intention to invite Myanmar
President Thein Sein to pay an official visit to their countries. Suu Kyi too
lauded their plans to do so and stressed the importance of their interacting
not only with her and her party but also with the Government over which the
Army still has a strong influence.
5. Some of the key themes of her speeches were the
need to strengthen national reconciliation in Myanmar, her faith in the
policies and good intentions of Thein Sein , her cautious optimism that the
policy of reforms initiated by Thein Sein will continue though she was hesitant
to say that the reforms are irreversible. For nearly 50 years, the Army has
been the strongest and most assertive segment of the society and administration
in Myanmar. Keeping this in view, it would be premature and unwise to talk of
the irreversibility of reforms.
6. She gave the impression of being confident,
though, that Thein Sein is firmly in the saddle and will be able to keep ahead
with his policy of reforms. Significantly, shortly after her return, there was
speculation in Myanmar that four of the hardliners in the Cabinet, known as
supporters of hardliner Than Shwe, the predecessor of Thein Sein, were being
eased out. The resignation of one of these four, Vice-President Tin Aung Myint Oo, has already been announced
on July 4.
7.Suu Kyi’s admiration for the Western world and
her hopes and expectations that the Western investors would play a more
important role in the economic development of Myanmar were repeatedly echoed in
her speeches and comments during her tour of Europe. She stressed the
importance of human rights and democracy friendly foreign investments.
8. She did not clarify, though, whether she
considered the foreign investments from China, the largest foreign investor in
Myanmar till now, to be human rights and democracy friendly and, if not,
whether she would welcome Chinese investments in future.
9. It was significant that during her stay in
London she received on June 19 at her place of stay His Holiness the Dalai Lama
who wanted to wish her on her 67th birthday. His Holiness was on a
separate visit to London to promote Buddhist teachings and he availed of her
stay to call on her and greet her. The fact that she readily agreed to receive
him without worrying about any adverse reactions from her Government and from
Beijing indicated her readiness to take an independent stand without worrying
about adverse reactions from Beijing.
10. China will have reasons to be concerned over
her interactions with His Holiness and over her repeated emphasis on human
rights and democracy friendly foreign investment, but it has not openly
articulated its concerns.
11. Beijing, which is a major investor in the oil
and gas sector in Myanmar, particularly
in the Rakhine State, would not have failed to note with concern the expression
of interest, particularly in Paris, in the possible flow of Western investment
in the oil and gas sector. If this materialises, this could be to the detriment
of both China and India, which have been assisting the Myanmar Government in
this field.
12. In response to questions from Western
journalists regarding the scope for increased investment flows as a result of
the opening-up of Myanmar, U Soe Thane , the Myanmar Industry Minister, who
attended the Nobel Peace Prize function at Oslo, said: “ A rush is OK, but not
a gold rush.”
13. It is obvious that Western business houses,
particularly in the oil and gas sector, are expecting a gold rush as a result
of their consistent backing for the democracy movement of Suu Kyi.
14. Will their expectations materialise? Will China
and the pro-Beijing officers in the Myanmar Army watch quietly as the Western
business houses try hard to be the main beneficiaries of the rise of Suu Kyi in
Myanmar’s future politics? These are issues that need to be closely monitored .
( 5-7-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China
Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
