B.RAMAN
The remark of Miss Mamata Banerjee that the game is
not yet over has given rise to a fresh bout of speculation regarding the
possible political scenarios in the wake of her losing the Presidential poll
cards as a result of her badly and impulsively playing them.
2.In my view, for Mamata, the Presidential game is
over. She will not be able to retrieve her cards. If she was trying to hint
that she still has some cards up her sleeve, she was just whistling in the dark
in a moment of understandable petulance. Nothing more.
3.Once Dr. Abdul Kalam decides not to be a losing
candidate and spoil his brilliant record in India’s contemporary history,
nothing can stop Shri Pranab Mukherjee from winning. The only question now is
whether Shri P.A.Sangma will withdraw thereby enabling Pranabda to win
unopposed or will he remain in the field as a mark of protest over the non-nomination of a tribal
candidate for India’s high office. Even if Sangma remains, Pranabda’s win is
certain.
4. My own feeling is that the political managers of
Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, who have proved adept in managing and overcoming what seemed
a major embarrassment, will now focus on placating Sangma either by offering to
support Sangma himself or a tribal candidate of mutual choice such as James
Lyngdoh, former Chief Election Commissioner, as the Vice-President in order to
satisfy his tribal pride.
5. The speculation and assessments that with the
storm over the Presidential elections blowing over, it will now be
smooth-sailing for the Congress and the UPA till 2014 are over-optimistic.
Mamata’s Presidential game is practically over. Her pinpricks game will
continue. Even before the controversy over the Presidential polls she had repeatedly
demonstrated her pinpricks value. That value remains intact and could increase
in the coming weeks as a result of political developments in Andhra Pradesh. One
understands from sources in Delhi that
the political managers of the Congress are worried over the dangers of Shri Jagan Mohan Reddy being able to induce
large-scale defections of Congress MLAs and MPs following the electoral triumph
of his supporters in the bye-elections the results of which were announced on
June 15.
6. If that scenario materialises, the political
roller coaster will continue. The Union Cabinet headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh is
now facing pinpricks from West Bengal. It may start facing pinpricks from AP
too.
7.There are various speculations as to what Mamata
can do next. One view is that being an emotional person, she may be thawed by
Pranabda’s references to her as “almost like my sister” and she will be a
mellowed person now so far as the Presidential polls are concerned. She has
herself sought to give the impression that she is far from mellowed.
8.Permanent defiance is a defining characteristic
of Mamata. The Communists learnt it to their cost in WB. She will be looking for
ways of fresh defiance of New Delhi even if she has lost her Presidential cards.
9.Dr.Manmohan Singh is not going to regain his
credibility as a result of the feel good atmosphere in the Congress following
the favourable developments relating to the Presidential polls. The political
crisis that seemed to be looming on this issue has been skilfully overcome by
the political managers of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi.
9. The national crisis due to public perceptions of
large-scale corruption, collapse of governance and the economic downslide
continues. ( 16-6-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China
Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
