INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 768
Al Qaeda in North Waziristan, Al Qaeda in the Arab
Peninsula (AQAP), the NeoTaliban of Afghanistan and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) have been closely following the presidential election campaign in the US.
While they have kept up their rhetoric against President Barack Obama, they are
not yet clear in their mind whether it would be in their interest to work for the defeat of Mr.Obama by
stepping up acts of terrorism in the Af-Pak region and in the Iraq-Syria-Libya
region.
2. There is a high level of anger against Mr.Obama
in all these organisations. This is due to his intensification of the Drone
strikes against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the Waziristan area after coming into
office, the killing of Osama bin Laden in a special operation at Abbottabad on
May 1 / 2,2011, the killing of Abu Yahya al-Libi, the religious mentor of Al
Qaeda, who was a Libyan religious cleric, in a Drone strike in Waziristan on June
4 last, the death of Anwar al-Awlaki, the Amir of AQAP, who was a US citizen of
Yemeni origin, in a Drone strike in Yemen in September last year, and the US
refusal to take action against the producer of the anti-Islam film that has
triggered a wave of demonstrations, some of them violent, by Muslims in
different countries.
3. The strong dislike of Al Qaeda for Mr.Obama was
evident from two recent messages of Al Qaeda. A video message of Ayman
al-Zawahiri, the Amir of Al Qaeda, released on September 10,2012, described
Mr.Obama as a liar who was elected to
"trick" Muslims around the world, but who nevertheless is "being
defeated in Afghanistan".
4. A statement circulated by the AQAP
after the attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi in Libya on September 11,2012,
that led to the death of the US Ambassador to Libya and three other US
nationals said: “The killing of Sheikh Abu Yahya only increased the enthusiasm
and determination of the sons of (Libyan independence hero) Omar al-Mukhtar to
take revenge upon those who attack our Prophet. The uprising of our people in
Libya, Egypt and Yemen against America and its embassies is a sign to notify
the United States that its war is not directed against groups and
organisations... but against the Islamic nation that has rebelled against
injustice." It called for more violent demonstrations against US embassies
in the Middle East and Africa, and urged Muslims in the West to attack American
interests in their countries of residence. "May the expulsion of embassies
and consulates lead to the liberation of Arab lands from the American hegemony
and the arrogance," the statement
said. The AQAP is led by Nasser al-Wahishi.
5. There has been an increase in anti-Obama and
anti-US rhetoric from the Neo-Taliban of Afghanistan and the TTP too. They have
called for protests against the US film and have stepped up anti-US
demonstrations and acts of violence in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. At the
same time, they are confused whether it would be in their interest for Mr.Obama
to be defeated in his bid for re-election. Though they may intensely dislike
him, they are not sure of what would be
the policy of Mr. Mitt Romney in matters like intensified Drone strikes,
thinning out of the US military presence in Afghanistan and not opposing a role
for the moderate elements of the Neo-Taliban in any future political dispensation
in Kabul.
6. For them, Mr.Romney is an unknown and
unpredictable element in their objective of securing the withdrawal of the US
troops from Afghanistan. The US has already completed the withdrawal of the
additional troops inducted into Afghanistan under the surge ordered by Mr.Obama
after he came to office. They have reasons to hope that if Mr.Obama is
re-elected he may continue the further thinning out of the US troops which
could prove to be advantageous to the Talibans and Al Qaeda.
7. In the case of the AQAP too, which controls Al
Qaeda operations in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Syria, Mr.Obama’s policy of
regime change with US-sponsored external interventions has proved beneficial
and helped them to strengthen their foothold in these areas. Their only worry
is whether Mr.Obama, if re-elected, would step up attacks on AQAP as he had
stepped up attacks against AQ in the Af-Pak region after coming to office in
2009.
8.While calling for an intensification of anti-US activities,
these organisations have been avoiding any disproportionate acts of reprisal
against US nationals and interests that might turn US public opinion against
Mr.Obama. It is likely as of now that while maintaining the anti-Obama rhetoric
and the present levels of demonstrations and violence, they would avoid actions
that could aggravate anti-Obama voter anger in the US. ( 26-9-12)
(The writer
is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,
and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate
of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter @SORBONNE75)
