The intelligence agencies would have examined in depth the likely security implications of the execution of Afzal Guru this morning for his involvement in the attack on the Indian Parliament in December,2001, and taken necessary precautions not only in Jammu and Kashmir, but also in the rest of India.
2.They would have studied in detail the kind of security problems our agencies faced after the execution of Maqbool Bhatt of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front in the Tihar Jail in 1984 for his involvement in terrorism.
3. The circumstances in 1984 were not as complicated as they are today. We had to contend with only dangers of retaliation by the Kashmiri terrorist organisations.
4.In 1984, we were not faced with dangers of possible retaliation by Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Jaish-e-Mohammad, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. They were busy fighting the Soviet troops in Afghanistan and the attention of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence was also in Afghanistan.
5.They were not in a position to mount instant retaliation. Their retaliation was delayed till 1989 after the Soviet troops had withdrawn from Afghanistan.
6.Today, all these groups, particularly the LET and the JEM which played a principal role in the attack on the Parliament, are well primed against India and are in a position to mount quick retaliatory attacks not only in J&K but also in the rest of India with the help of their accomplices such as the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and the Indian Mujahideen.
7.Our security focus has to be pan-India. (9-2-13)
( The writer is former Additional Secretary , Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )