B.RAMAN
Diminishing
malice is becoming the defining characteristic of Indo-Pakistan
relations as our Foreign Minister, Shri S.M.Krishna, flies to Islamabad on the morning of Septembr 7,2012, for
another joint review with Ms Hina Rabbani Khar, his Pakistani counterpart, of
the state of the continuing talks between officials of the two countries on bilateral issues that have been the stumbling
block of better relations.
2. The bilateral issues remain as they were defying
a substantive movement forward in the efforts to find a solution. This is so
whether in respect of Jammu and Kashmir or the Siachen and Sir Creek issues or
Pakistani inaction against the terrorists of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), who
masterminded the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai and are now supposed to be
facing trial before an anti-terrorism court in Rawalpindi.
3.What has been changing is not the contours and the
complexities of the bilateral issues, but the lingo and the rhetoric. The lingo
is increasingly marked less by malice and more by friendship. The rhetoric is
less mutually accusatory.
4. The periodic exchanges of allegations continue.
India continues to level allegations of Pakistani insincerity in prosecuting
the masterminds of the 26/11 terrorist strikes and of Islamabad not acting
against the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory.
Pakistan continues to level allegations of foreign involvement in its internal
security problems in Balochistan, without naming India
5. Despite this, there is a discernible attempt by
the two countries not to level fresh allegations that could add new poison to
the bilateral relations. One saw this in the aftermath of the recent violent
incidents in Mumbai and Lucknow and the departure of a large number of people
from India’s North-East living in South India and Pune for their home in the
North-East due to nervousness caused by threats of retaliation against them for
the recent anti-Muslim violence in Assam.
6.India continues to suspect that the psy-jihad
propaganda backed by consciously exaggerated stories and morphed images, which
led to the violence and the nervous exodus, originated from Pakistan, but the
usual urge to blame the State of Pakistan for such anti-Indian impulses has
been kept under control. There has been an admission that the initial
allegations made against the State of Pakistan by officials of India’s Ministry
of Home Affairs have not been corroborated by subsequent evidence. It was
because of this that our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Sigh did not raise this issue,
as he was originally expected to, in his talks with President Asif Ali Zardari
of Pakistan in the margins of the recent NAM summit in Tehran.
7. There have been fresh suspicions of possible
Pakistani State involvement in the activities of 18 Indian Muslim suspects
taken into custody since August 29 in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra
on charges of planning to assassinate some Hindu personalities in Bengaluru and
Hyderabad. But, these suspicions are being articulated in a muted form and not
from the roof-top so that they do not come in the way of the improving bilateral
vibrations.
8. The vibrations are becoming better and
better----whether between the political leaders or civilian officials of the
two countries. One could see a growing conviction among the political leaders
and civilian officials of Pakistan that their anti-India reflexes have started
becoming counter-productive. There is as yet no evidence to show that this
conviction is shared by the Pakistan Army, which continues to dominate
decision-making in matters relating to India.
9. There is continuing suspicion in Pakistan’s
Army and Inter-services Intelligence about the intentions of India towards
Pakistan. The diminution of anti-Indian malice is yet to be felt in the Armed
Forces and the military intelligence agencies. Unless they realise the
importance and benefits of relations marked less by malice and more by
friendship, the increasing hopes of a better tomorrow in Indo-Pakistan
relations may still be belied.
10. But even in the Army and the ISI there has been
no attempt to create complications in the efforts to find solutions to
bilateral issues. The Army and the ISI have kept the terrorist weapon intact,
but have not used it in Indian territory after 26/11.They have been creating
for themselves fresh capabilities for violence and instability in Jammu and
Kashmir as evidenced by the recent discovery of their attempts to construct
tunnels for infiltration of terrorists into J&K, but they have refrained
from creating fresh pockets of violence in the State.
11. The improvement in the ambiance marked by the
greater focus on opportunities for bilateral trade and easier visa procedures
shows a welcome shift away by the political and civilian leadership in both the countries from the past policy of not
letting new areas of convergence emerge till the areas of divergence have been satisfactorily tackled.
12. The divergence on traditional issues remains,
but there is a search for new areas of convergence. The talks of Shri Krishna
in Islamabad should keep the focus on this search for new areas of convergence.
13. The Pakistanis continue to be keen for an early
visit by Dr.Manmohan Singh to their country. Since the visit of Shri Atal
Bihari Vajpayee to Islamabad in January 2004 to attend the SAARC summit, no
Indian Prime Minister has gone there. The hopes that were there that he might
now consider going despite the lack of progress on substantive issues and
Pakistani inaction against terrorism have somewhat dimmed because of the
uncertain political situation in India. One had the impression of seeing in
Tehran an extra-cautious Dr.Manmohan Singh. His usually warm vibrations towards
Pakistan were kept under check.
14. If political developments in India make an
early poll inevitable, the handling of relations with Pakistan could acquire a
different dimension and different priority.
15. Despite this, one could hope for a continuance of
the trend towards less malice in the bilateral relations as a result of the visit of our Foreign
Minister. ( 7-9-12)
(The writer
is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,
and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate
of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter @SORBONNE75)
