INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO 764
B.RAMAN
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2.Coinciding with the anniversary of the 9/11
terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in the US homeland, it has carried an article
dated September 10,2012, by one Jeff
Emanuel titled “India, Abbottabad, and Osama bin Laden: Did New Delhi Assist
the U.S. on Operation Neptune Spear?’
3. The article is a commentary on the book titled “No
Easy Day” written by Mark Owen ( assumed name), one of the Navy Seals who
formed a member of the team that successfully raided the hide-out of Osama bin
Laden at Abbottabad in Pakistan on the night of May 1/2,2011, and killed OBL.
The book is his account of the operation code-named Neptune Spear carried out
by a team of the Navy Seals under the supervision of the Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA), then headed by Mr.Leon Panetta, the present Defence Secretary.
4. After the successful raid, Owen was decorated
along with other members of the team, but seems to have taken premature
retirement. The reasons for his premature retirement are not known. It is not
clear whether it was due to any grievances he might have had in connection with
the recognition of his role in the raid.
5.Mr.Panetta has been quoted by the US media as
having demanded action against Owen for having disclosed sensitive operational
secrets in his book. This would indicate a large measure of truth in his
account, if not the entire truth.
6.The article by Jeff Emanuel has caused considerable interest in India because of its
inference, after studying the flight path of the helicopters that carried the
Navy Seals as indicated by Owen, that one of the helicopters crossed Indian air
space over Jammu and Kashmir on its way to and back from Abbottabad.
7. To quote the relevant observations of Emanuel:
“The fourteenth page of images in No Easy Day
contains a map showing the routes taken by the two flights of helicopters: the
Black Hawks taking the assaulters to Abbottabad, and the MH-47 Chinooks
carrying a quick reaction force (QRF) and forward area refueling point (FARP)
team. While the latter flew due east to a staging area northwest of Abbottabad,
the former flight is shown on Owen’s map as crossing over Pakistan’s eastern
border with India before looping around and approaching Abbottabad from the
southeast, rather than approaching directly from the west (or west-northwest).
“This apparent use of Indian airspace on the
infiltration route raises some obvious questions, including:
1.What
foreknowledge (if any) did the Indian government have about the mission into
Pakistan?
2.If
clearance to use Indian airspace was requested (and granted), what was the
Indian government told, either about the real objective of Operation Neptune
Spear or as a cover story?
“What other assistance did India provide, either in
terms of aerial diversion or supplying the U.S. with guidance on the best route
back into Pakistan? (It seems clear that the latter would involve providing the
U.S. some insight into India’s intelligence and route planning for a possible
strike on Pakistan should hostilities resume between the two states.)
“It’s important to note at this point that this
discussion is based on a single low-detail graphic from an account that was neither vetted nor
confirmed by the U.S. government. At no
point in the text of No Easy Day is the route to Abbottabad discussed
(as opposed to the return trip, which is dealt with in some detail); in fact,
Owen writes, most of the team slept on the way in.
“Owen’s map appears to define Pakistan’s eastern
border as the western boundary of Kashmir, the disputed territory that is
bisected into Pakistani- and Indian-administered territories by the Line of
Control, established in 1972, and it is difficult to tell whether the image was
intended to show that the helicopters’ route crossed the LOC. However, the
route appears to take the Americans in the vicinity of Uri, in Indian
territory.
“It goes without saying that crossing over the LOC
would have been an exceedingly dangerous undertaking, and one which, while
crossing eastward, would almost certainly have required providing prior notice
to the Indian government. Likewise, passing back across the LOC into Pakistan
would have been a dangerous undertaking, as that is the direction in which
Pakistan’s air defenses are largely oriented. This goes back to point 3 above:
if the assaulters’ route to Abbottabad included crossing over the Indian border
and back again, it seems likely that weaknesses in Pakistan’s eastward-oriented
air defences known to India were communicated to the U.S. and exploited on this
mission.”
8. I have the following comments on the analysis of
Emanuel:
(a). In covert operations of this kind, the
principle of restrictive security is strictly followed. The crew of the helicopters
would not know what the Navy Seals would be doing after they are dropped on the
ground. The Navy Seals would not know what flight path the crew would be
following. How did Owen come to know the details of the flight path and the
exact points at which the helicopter would be crossing the Line of Control
(LOC) twice while going to Abbottabad ?
( b ).In planning operations of this nature
involving air and missile action, the US is always worried that if the
Pakistanis detect the action they may misinterpret that the action had been
originated by India and this could lead to a war between the two nuclear
powers. They never undertake any secret action from the Indian side. When the
US launched the Cruise missile attacks on OBL’s camps in Afghanistan in October
1998, Anthony Zinni, the then head of the Central Command, flew to the Chaklala
Air Force base in Pakistan and informed Gen.Jehangir Karamat, the then Pakistan’s
Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), of the impending action. He later said that he
did not want the Pakistanis to think that the missiles were of India and launch
a counter-attack on India.
( C).After the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US
Homeland, the A.B.Vajpayee Government then in power had offered to the US the secret
use of Indian Air Force bases for retaliatory strikes against Al Qaeda and the
Taliban. The Bush Administration declined the offer due to fears of
unpredictable reaction by Pakistan resulting in a nuclear war between India and
Pakistan.
( d ). The anxiety not to undertake any operation from the Indian side
that might trigger off panic reactions by Pakistan against India continues to
be an important element in US covert action planning in this region.
( e ).Any operation of this nature involving an
approach from the Indian air space contained in it, whether the Government of
India was kept informed or not, the seeds of the danger that Pakistan might
detect the approach of the helicopter from the Indian air space and react
unpredictably against India.
( f). After the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai,
there was a discussion in India by well-informed persons about India’s option
of mounting a copter strike on the training camps of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET)
in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. The US pressured India not to undertake such an operation
due to its fears of unpredictable reactions of Pakistan. It was reported at
that time that the Indian Special Forces were confident that they would be able
to undertake copter-borne strikes in POK without being detected by Pakistani
radars. Were the details of the flight path which the Indian Special Forces
intended using if they had been permitted by the political leadership to
undertake the strikes shared with the CIA for its operation on Abbottabad?
9. Owen’s account will neither be proved correct
nor disproved till the US one day declassifies the details of the operation.
Till then, it will be difficult to find definitive answers to the points raised
by me.
10.The account of Owen would make sense only if the
US had kept both India and Pakistan informed beforehand, taken India’s consent
for the copter to cross into Indian air space and Pakistan’s consent for the
copter to take a flight path across Indian air space.
11. In this connection, please see my following
comments in my article dated May 3,2011, on the operation at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers45/paper4463.html
“Till now the indications are that it was an
exclusive US operation. Since it involved the ingress of the US specal forces
into Pakistani territory by air in helicopters, it was likely that Gen. Ashfaq
Pervez Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), was informed before
the helicopters with the special forces took off from Afghanistan for the raid
even though US officials have reportedly been asserting that Pakistan was
informed only after the helicopters had taken off at the end of the operation.
When the Bill Clinton Administration launched the Cruise missile strikes on the
training camps of Al Qaeda in the Jalalabad area of Afghanistan in 1998 they
followed a similar procedure. Gen Anthony Zinni, the then Commanding Officer of
the US Central Command, flew to Islamabad from a US naval ship and informed
Gen.Jehangir Karamat, the then COAS, about the impending raid. The US did so to
make sure that Pakistan did not interpret that the missile had been launched by
India and order a missile strike against India. A similar precaution was likely
to have been taken this time too. Moreover, Abbotabad, an important military
garrison town, has high air defence cover. It was important to prevent a messy air defence action by Pakistan
against the US helicopters if its radars had
detected their approach. The entire operation lasted a little over two
hours. During this period, one of the helicopters crashed. It was blown up and
destroyed by the special forces. A newsletter disseminated by a retired US
naval officer says: "Source says actual crash sight was on Kakul Road,
Abbottabod, Pakistan just down from the Pakistan Military Academy exercise
grounds. See image for road, which was reportedly blocked off by local security
after the incident. Folks in the city mentioned on Twitter at the time that the
action was very, very close to the PMA." This would indicate that during
the entire operation on the ground, which lasted over 90 minutes if one
excludes the time taken by the choppers for their to and fro journey, the
Pakistani security forces did not intervene and try to find out what was going
on. The local police blocked the stretch of the road where the helicopter had
crashed to prevent onlookers rushing there till the Americans had destroyed the
chopper. All this clearly shows that the Pakistanis must have had advance
knowledge of the operation and had instructions from above not to intervene.”(
11-9-12)
(The writer
is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,
and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate
of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter @SORBONNE75)
