B.RAMAN
I would like to make the following points regarding
the Cabinet reshuffle carried out by the Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh on
October 28,2012.
2.The widespread expectations by many, including
me, that the reshuffle would have the stamp of Shri Rahul Gandhi have been
belied. The reshuffle has the hotch-potch stamp of Dr.Manmohan Singh and
Mrs.Sonia Gandhi. It is a play-it-safe reshuffle to carry on the governance
without any major political problems till the 2014 elections to the Lok Sabha.
3. Not only Dr.Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, but even
Shri Rahul Gandhi and his young aides have chosen to play it safe lest Shri
Rahul Gandhi fall flat on his face as he did after the elections to the UP State Assembly earlier this year. Once bitten
twice shy. That has been the attitude of Rahul. He is still politically diffident and
does not want to project himself in the forefront till the political situation
turns in his favour. Public perception is still not in his favour.
4.The most surprising element in the reshuffle is
the elevation of Shri Salman Khurshid as the Minister for External Affairs.
Shri Khurshid is a gifted individual and Minister who had done well in whatever
responsibility was entrusted to him in the past, but he had recently got
involved in an embarrassing controversy due to allegations of misuse of funds
sanctioned for the welfare of physically disadvantaged people by a Trust with
which he and his wife are associated. He and his wife handled the allegations in a press conference in a
shockingly petulant and insensitive manner.
5. His behaviour definitely created considerable
embarrassment for the Government and a negative percepton of him even among
those well disposed to him. One would have, therefore, felt that Dr.Singh and
Mrs.Gandhi would have played it safe by not giving him a prominent portfolio.
Their action in giving him the prized portfolio of External Affairs can be
explained only from the point of view of a convergence of the interest of both
Dr.Singh and Mrs.Gandhi in having him in that portfolio.
6.Since he became the Prime Minister in 2004,
Dr.Singh has been playing an activist role in foreign policy matters whether it
be in respect of closer strategic partnership with the US or a thaw in the
relations with Pakistan despite the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai or
co-operative relationship with China despite the continuing border dispute.
7. He chose Shri S.M.Krishna as the EAM because of
the confidence that Shri Krishna would let him play that activist role without
any friction and that the two would be on the same wavelength on important
foreign policy issues. Shri Krishna totally went along with Dr.Singh in all
these matters. Dr.Singh has similar confidence in Shri Khurshid.
8. In the case of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, it is not so much her confidence in
his foreign policy expertise as her gratitude to him for standing by her in
public as the Law Minister in the controversy relating to the allegations of
wrong-doing made against Shri Robert Vadra, her son-in-law, by India Against Corruption (IAC) led by
Shri Arvind Kejriwal that has played a role for her backing to his elevation. It
must be remembered that on the day the IOC publicly made the allegations
against Shri Vadra there was total panic in the Congress Party and in the
entourage of Mrs.Gandhi.
9. Shri Khurshid stood in the forefront of the
Ministers who openly defended Shri Vadra. It would not be wrong to say that his
fierce defence of Shri Vadra and his open proclamation of his loyalty to
Mrs.Gandhi added to the venom of the IOC against him. Mrs. Gandhi has thus
reasons to be grateful to Shri Khurshid
for diverting the fire away from her and Shri Vadra. These two factors have
definitely played an important role in his elevation in total disregard of the
public perception against him.
10. Will this Cabinet, which is expected to fight
the coming elections to the Loh Sabha, be able to avert a defeat in the
elections? I will not be surprised if it does. The BJP has been thinking that
the allegations of corruption against the Congress alone will bring it down.
The history of our elections since 1950 show that allegations of corruption,
however serious, are not crucial in determining the outcome. Despite the Bofors
controversy, the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi did not do that badly in the 1989
polls even though it failed to secure a majority. The Congress was back in power
within two years. All the allegations of corruption and Emergency excesses made
against Mrs.Indira Gandhi could not prevent her return to power with a huge
majority in 1980.
11. Relentless demonization of political opponents
has played a crucial role only in the elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly .Otherwise,
the impact of a demonization campaign is generally marginal as we have been
seeing repeatedly in Gujarat and in the elections to the Lok Sabha. If the BJP
wants to profit from the existing mood against the Congress, it has to project
before the people an alternative policy framework. Instead of doing so, it
seems to be thinking that it can rout the Congress by harping on the issue of
corruption and by demonising the Sonia Gandhi family. It may not work. (
28-10-12)
(The writer
is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,
and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate
of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter @SORBONNE75)
