Sunday, October 28, 2012





I would like to make the following points regarding the Cabinet reshuffle carried out by the Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh on October 28,2012.

2.The widespread expectations by many, including me, that the reshuffle would have the stamp of Shri Rahul Gandhi have been belied. The reshuffle has the hotch-potch stamp of Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi. It is a play-it-safe reshuffle to carry on the governance without any major political problems till the 2014 elections to the Lok Sabha.

3. Not only Dr.Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, but even Shri Rahul Gandhi and his young aides have chosen to play it safe lest Shri Rahul Gandhi fall flat on his face as he did after the elections to the  UP State Assembly earlier this year. Once bitten twice shy. That has been the attitude of  Rahul. He is still politically diffident and does not want to project himself in the forefront till the political situation turns in his favour. Public perception is still not  in his favour.

4.The most surprising element in the reshuffle is the elevation of Shri Salman Khurshid as the Minister for External Affairs. Shri Khurshid is a gifted individual and Minister who had done well in whatever responsibility was entrusted to him in the past, but he had recently got involved in an embarrassing controversy due to allegations of misuse of funds sanctioned for the welfare of physically disadvantaged people by a Trust with which he and his wife are associated. He and his wife handled  the allegations in a press conference in a shockingly petulant and insensitive manner.

5. His behaviour definitely created considerable embarrassment for the Government and a negative percepton of him even among those well disposed to him. One would have, therefore, felt that Dr.Singh and Mrs.Gandhi would have played it safe by not giving him a prominent portfolio. Their action in giving him the prized portfolio of External Affairs can be explained only from the point of view of a convergence of the interest of both Dr.Singh and Mrs.Gandhi in having him in that portfolio.

6.Since he became the Prime Minister in 2004, Dr.Singh has been playing an activist role in foreign policy matters whether it be in respect of closer strategic partnership with the US or a thaw in the relations with Pakistan despite the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai or co-operative relationship with China despite the continuing border dispute.

7. He chose Shri S.M.Krishna as the EAM because of the confidence that Shri Krishna would let him play that activist role without any friction and that the two would be on the same wavelength on important foreign policy issues. Shri Krishna totally went along with Dr.Singh in all these matters. Dr.Singh has similar confidence in Shri Khurshid.

8. In the case of Mrs.Sonia  Gandhi, it is not so much her confidence in his foreign policy expertise as her gratitude to him for standing by her in public as the Law Minister in the controversy relating to the allegations of wrong-doing made against Shri Robert Vadra, her son-in-law,   by India Against Corruption (IAC) led by Shri Arvind Kejriwal that has played a role for her backing to his elevation. It must be remembered that on the day the IOC publicly made the allegations against Shri Vadra there was total panic in the Congress Party and in the entourage of Mrs.Gandhi.

9. Shri Khurshid stood in the forefront of the Ministers who openly defended Shri Vadra. It would not be wrong to say that his fierce defence of Shri Vadra and his open proclamation of his loyalty to Mrs.Gandhi added to the venom of the IOC against him. Mrs. Gandhi has thus reasons to be grateful to Shri  Khurshid for diverting the fire away from her and Shri Vadra. These two factors have definitely played an important role in his elevation in total disregard of the public perception against him.

10. Will this Cabinet, which is expected to fight the coming elections to the Loh Sabha, be able to avert a defeat in the elections? I will not be surprised if it does. The BJP has been thinking that the allegations of corruption against the Congress alone will bring it down. The history of our elections since 1950 show that allegations of corruption, however serious, are not crucial in determining the outcome. Despite the Bofors controversy, the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi did not do that badly in the 1989 polls even though it failed to secure a majority. The Congress was back in power within two years. All the allegations of corruption and Emergency excesses made against Mrs.Indira Gandhi could not prevent her return to power with a huge majority in 1980.

11. Relentless demonization of political opponents has played a crucial role only in the elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly .Otherwise, the impact of a demonization campaign is generally marginal as we have been seeing repeatedly in Gujarat and in the elections to the Lok Sabha. If the BJP wants to profit from the existing mood against the Congress, it has to project before the people an alternative policy framework. Instead of doing so, it seems to be thinking that it can rout the Congress by harping on the issue of corruption and by demonising the Sonia Gandhi family. It may not work. ( 28-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:  Twitter @SORBONNE75)


Cato Elder said...

You have got to be the most biased pro Congress "analysts" India has ever seen.
You speak as though Rahul Gandhi has some sort of birthright to lead Indians.
Pfft pathetic, no wonder we're in such a terrible state. Congress has been the vanguard of casteist, anti-Indian and anti-communal harmony since 1947.

Unknown said...

How can you suddenly take a U turn and say that the public perception is not in favor of Rahul Gandhi. You have relentlessly campaigned that the perception of only a few waylaid "NRIs" is against UPA and Rahul Gandhi. Rahul Gandhi cannot take charge for the simple reason that he is intellectually ill-equipped to answer to the media or the public without a speech prepared before hand.

The cult of the so called "Nehru-Gandhi" family lead by the likes of Mr Raman is the exact opposite of democracy. Everybody is accountable and answerable EXCEPT Rahul, Sonia and family. They were destined to rule this country of mortals forever. They can resort to intimidation, media censorship, control of electronic media through political power, blatant theft of taxpayer money, infringement of right to expression but no media channel can dare question them. No law abiding citizen can dare to expose Sonia and her white Italian "family". Nobody can touch Vadra because the law minister and police will protect him.

The shuffle (or whatever this is) is a complete farce and a symbol of appeasement of regional and communal elements. It seeks to capitalize on the ever widening communal and regional gulf. It has nothing to do with the day to day affairs of the country or development.

Everybody is accountable except the family. In the name of development the family will throw taxpayer money in the name of NREGA.

Mr Raman, you are so out of touch of ground realities and the real public perception.

Wiki said...

This cabinet reshuffle has been a tight slap on the face of the common man. Its like the UPA Govt. is daring the common man simply out of spite and malice - "How dare you protest against corruption! Just to teach you all a lesson, we will elevate allegedly corrupt politicians even higher!

What They don't Want You to Know said...

The continued sidelining of RG shows that the Italian and the sheep recognise that he is worse than even we can see.