B.RAMAN
For over a year now, a strategic debate has been
going on in Delhi on future threat scenarios relating to State and non-State
actors.
2. Our preoccupation till now has been with the
continuing threats from the State of Pakistan and from the jihadi terrorist
organisations nursed by it. It has also been with China’s continuing collusion
with Pakistan and the dangers of a two-front war arising therefrom.
3. The debate has been between a group of classical
thinkers and a new generation of thinkers who perceive themselves to be
forward-looking and visionary.
4. The classical thinkers do not underestimate the
implications of increasing Chinese military and cyber activism. They are
worried over the sustained pace of modernisation of the Chinese armed forces
and Bejing’s economic clout which enables it to pursue its agenda of power
projection.
5.They are equally worried over the increasing
Chinese military capabilities in the outer and cyber space . They are,
therefore, all for paying additional attention to measures required for
strengthening our capabilities vis-à-vis China----by way of infrastructure
development, modernisation of our Armed Forces, intelligence agencies and cyber
capabilities and revamping our diplomatic skills required to deal with a rising
China.
6. To some measure, there is a convergence of thinking between the
classical thinkers and the forward-looking. The forward-looking thinkers are
even more worried about China than about Pakistan and want India to take not
only the conventional measures outlined above, but even go far ahead by way of
building up strategic convergences and co-ordinated thinking with other powers such as the US, Japan. South Korea and
Australia.
7. The new generation of strategic thinkers looks
upon our present focus on Pakistan to be over-done and advocate mid-course
corrections in order to be able to divert more resources for coping with China.
8. Both the classical and new generation thinkers
are agreed that “how to cope with the
rising China---politically, economically and militarily” should be the central
question in our strategic debates. However, whereas the new generation of
thinkers tends to take a more relaxed attitude towards Pakistan without letting
an obsession with Pakistan distort our strategic thinking, the classical
thinkers keep cautioning that in our anxiety over the implications of a rising
China, we should not forget our painful historical experiences because of the
compulsive hostility of the Pakistani State and non-State actors towards India.
9. According to the classical thinkers, there has
been no historical enmity between India and China. China’s interests are
limited to asserting what it claims to
be its sovereignty over certain border areas as
in Arunachal Pradesh. It also wants to ensure that no threats could arise to
its control over Tibet from the Tibetan diaspora in India. Beyond that, they
feel, it has no objective of wanting to keep India weak and divided by adding
to its internal security problems.
10. On the other hand, Pakistan’s hostility to
India is historical and multi-dimensional relating to Jammu & Kashmir and
its objective of keeping India weak and divided by constantly adding to its
internal security problems.
11. Whoever may be the ruler of Pakistan and
whatever may be the overtures and concessions made by India, the “go for India’s
jugular” instinct of Pakistan should remain the constant worrisome factor in
India’s strategic thinking and planning. So, the classical thinkers feel. That
is what an operational and intellectual giant of the R&AW whom I worship
told me during a chat.
12. By all means, we should be able to cope with
China better so that we don’t become a second rate power of Asia, but in our
anxiety on this count, we should not let our capability to protect our jugular
from Pakistan be weakened.
13. It is a timely and healthy debate. It is hoped
it will lead to a healthy mix of our strategic priorities. (6-6-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China
Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
