Friday, June 15, 2012



The remark of Miss Mamata Banerjee that the game is not yet over has given rise to a fresh bout of speculation regarding the possible political scenarios in the wake of her losing the Presidential poll cards as a result of her badly and impulsively playing them.

2.In my view, for Mamata, the Presidential game is over. She will not be able to retrieve her cards. If she was trying to hint that she still has some cards up her sleeve, she was just whistling in the dark in a moment of understandable petulance. Nothing more.

3.Once Dr. Abdul Kalam decides not to be a losing candidate and spoil his brilliant record in India’s contemporary history, nothing can stop Shri Pranab Mukherjee from winning. The only question now is whether Shri P.A.Sangma will withdraw thereby enabling Pranabda to win unopposed or will he remain in the field as a mark of  protest over the non-nomination of a tribal candidate for India’s high office. Even if Sangma remains, Pranabda’s win is certain.

4. My own feeling is that the political managers of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, who have proved adept in managing and overcoming what seemed a major embarrassment, will now focus on placating Sangma either by offering to support Sangma himself or a tribal candidate of mutual choice such as James Lyngdoh, former Chief Election Commissioner, as the Vice-President in order to satisfy his tribal pride.

5. The speculation and assessments that with the storm over the Presidential elections blowing over, it will now be smooth-sailing for the Congress and the UPA till 2014 are over-optimistic. Mamata’s Presidential game is practically over. Her pinpricks game will continue. Even before the controversy over the Presidential polls she had repeatedly demonstrated her pinpricks value. That value remains intact and could increase in the coming weeks as a result of political developments in Andhra Pradesh. One understands from  sources in Delhi that the political managers of the Congress are worried over the dangers of  Shri Jagan Mohan Reddy being able to induce large-scale defections of Congress MLAs and MPs following the electoral triumph of his supporters in the bye-elections the results of which were announced on June 15.

6. If that scenario materialises, the political roller coaster will continue. The Union Cabinet headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh is now facing pinpricks from West Bengal. It may start facing pinpricks from AP too.

7.There are various speculations as to what Mamata can do next. One view is that being an emotional person, she may be thawed by Pranabda’s references to her as “almost like my sister” and she will be a mellowed person now so far as the Presidential polls are concerned. She has herself sought to give the impression that she is far from mellowed.

8.Permanent defiance is a defining characteristic of Mamata. The Communists learnt it to their cost in WB. She will be looking for ways of fresh defiance of New Delhi even if she has lost her Presidential cards.

9.Dr.Manmohan Singh is not going to regain his credibility as a result of the feel good atmosphere in the Congress following the favourable developments relating to the Presidential polls. The political crisis that seemed to be looming on this issue has been skilfully overcome by the political managers of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi.

9. The national crisis due to public perceptions of large-scale corruption, collapse of governance and the economic downslide continues. ( 16-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )


Krishna Kacker said...

UPA may be having sufficient votes to ensure PranabMukerji get elected as President, but would perhaps like to have the support of NDA to make it look like a near Unanimous election.Since NDA has not taken any position on another candidate,it would perhaps also like to make it look like a near unanimous election of the next President.If so,UPA may find it prudent to bring in a NDA nominee as the next Vice President, rather than placate Sangma who may be representing the tribal cause but does not have the numbers required.Unless of course Sangma or his nominee can get the support of NDA also.

Tintin said...

why suddenly Sangma has gain so much importance i am not able to understand. he has not been such a visible figure in political scenario for last few years. No tom, dick or harry can get up one fine morning and want to become a President of Republic of India merely on the credentials of being a Tribal leader. and what basis had NDA even thought of supporting him. Surprising to me such developments...

ambi said...

picture abhi baaki hain mere dost!!!

but as well said nothing succeeds in congress like failure. after messing up with economy pranab is richly rewarded. replace bhi kar diya pata bhi nahin chala. ha ha ha! person who lost the only election he fought was directly appointed as a pm. woman who was a cook in indira gandhis kitchen was appointed as a president. kya khichadi tab pratibha tai ne paka ke khilai pata nahin. no wonder congress has allergy for the honest & meritorious people like apj abdul kalam or general v k singh. Bunch of incompetents!

and thats the worst part. as congress cannot change itself with the changing time, it wants whole country to change itself in its matrix. no place for meritocracy. the more incompetent u r in discharging ur duties, higher u go. message is clear to all. god bless us.

by the way i ld like to thank bahan mayawati for winning coming election. as usual mulayam has commited a blunder of his life.

Esoteric said...

Mamata is an emotional person is hardly what we call strategic analysis.

Why have you not questioned Mulayam's U-turn?Why havent you exposed the 'Deal' given to him or whether its just jail time he is avoiding?Why are you soft on corruption?At what point will you say 'no compromises' for the sake of staying in power?Do you support the Govt usurping emergency powers if thw Govt looks like falling?Are you hiding a Nazi interior?

Since,I dont expect you to change .I will comment only on merit.

Why havent you questioned tactics used against Jagan?If Jagan is guilty,should not Congressi who were in power during the time be also questioned?

Why are you against Kalam?

Manan said...

While I rubbish claims of people calling you congress agent I am starting to feel you getting pro-congress day by day... The article seem to have feel of awe for politcal managers of congress though our economy is in mess n there is lack of leadership in decision making.

There is no refernce of backstabbing by mulayam n no mention of misuse of CBI against Jagan n other anti-congress leaders...

As I have mentioned before in my comments as impeccable your analysis is in foregin domain you seriously lack credibility or understanding of domestic politics