B.RAMAN
( To be read in
continuation of my article of July 11,2012, titled “Spectre of A Neo Al Qaeda Haunts Africa” at http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?281615
)
2. It issued the threat of retaliation against French citizens
anywhere after French troops and Air Force units went into action on January
11,2013, in Mali, to help the troops of interim Mali President Dioncounda
Traore retake the strategically important town of Konna which had been
reportedly captured by the Islamists.
3. Reports from Mali indicate that this town has since been
freed by the Mali troops with French air support. One French helicopter pilot
was reported to have been killed in the air action.
4.The short-term objectives of the French intervention seem to
be to prevent the jihadi terrorists from expanding the area under their control,
to strengthen the morale and capability of the Malian troops and to protect the
local French residents numbering about 6000, mostly in the capital Bamako. The
long-term objective is to roll back the jihadi terrorists and free the area
presently under their control.
5.While the French action in Mali has gone on without any major
mishap except the death of the pilot, a simultaneous but unconnected commando raid undertaken by French commandos
in Somalia to free a French hostage held in captivity since 2009 by al-Shabab,
the Somali affiliate of Al Qaeda, seems to have failed with both the commandos
and possibly the hostage too being killed. However, Al Shabab has not confirmed
the death of the hostage.
6.The failure of the raid in Somalia seems to have been due to
inadequate intelligence and poor planning.
7. The French will be operating in Mali side by side with a
pan-African force whose intervention has been authorized by the UN. The French
intervention had been expected for some time since the French were increasingly
concerned over the implications of the activities of the jihadi terrorists for
the protection of their strategic and economic interests in Africa and for
their homeland security.
8. The French face two kinds of threats. The first threat is
more in the nature of a Taliban-style insurgency in Mali. The second is more in
the style of Al Qaeda style terrorism in the French Homeland. They, therefore,
have to use both their counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency capabilities.
9.The jihadi terrorists’ threat of a retaliation against French
nationals has to be taken seriously since the large number of persons of
African origin in France will provide the terrorists a reservoir for
recruitment of jihadi volunteers. They do have the capability for retaliation,
but the question is how soon can they retaliate.
10.The French will be worried about the safety of eight hostages still in the custody of the Islamists
in different countries. After the failure of the rescue operation in Somalia,
the chances of success in other countries will be doubtful.
11. Osama bin Laden’s main targets were the US, Afghanistan,
Pakistan as a sanctuary, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
and Somalia. He did not give priority to French targets and interests,
His successor Ayman al-Zawahiri has been talking for many months of the need
for an African front and was showing interest in the French Homeland as a
target.
12. Even though France has drawn down its presence in
Afghanistan, Zawahiri would still be interested in France as a target to
strengthen the North African front of the international jihad. ( 13-1-13)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For
Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.
Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
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