B.RAMAN
In an address to a Friday congregation at the Tehran University on June 19,2009, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, again changed his position on the legality of the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the President of Iran at the elections held on June 12,2009.
2. After having endorsed the re-election in the initial days of the protest against it, he then gave the impression of taking a neutral stance by suggesting that as laid down in the Constitution, the matter should be left to the Guardian Council to decide as per the procedures laid down by the law.
3. As this did not have any impact on the anti-Ahmadinejad demonstrations all over the country, he has reiterated his original endorsement of the validity of the re-election without waiting for the report of the Guardian Council, which is enquiring into over 600 complaints received against the election and is to examine the defeated candidates on June 20, 2009. He has thus sought to pre-empt any adverse ruling by the Guardian Council. Khamenei also expressed his support to the foreign policy and the pro-poor economic policies followed by Ahmadinejad.
4.He has rejected indirectly, but definitively the demands of the protesters for the annulment of the election results and for a fresh poll and expressed his strong support for the continuance of Ahmadinejad as the President. He has warned against the continuance of the street protests, which, according to him, could be manipulated by outsiders and could lead to violence.
5. His speech was an indication of his belief that any seeming neutral stand of his could aggravate the situation and that the time had come to remove any impression of softness which might encourage more demonstrations. It was also a green signal to the Basij militia and the security agencies to start dealing with the protests more firmly even at the risk of some adverse external reactions. His message was clear: Thus far and no further.
6. The clear-cut stand taken by the Ayatollah in support of Ahmadinejad and in endorsement of the validity of his re-election creates a dilemma for Mir Hossein Mousavi, the defeated reformist candidate, and his supporters who have been demonstrating in their thousands.Till now, they have been projecting their protests as directed against Ahmadinejad and against what they allege to be his rigged victory. They have taken care not to give the impression of their protests being also against the Ayatollah and the Islamic system.
7. The continuance of the protest movement after ignoring the intervention of the Ayatollah could bring them into an undesired confrontation with him and the Islamic system. The Islamic revolutionaries, who came out into the streets in their thousands in 1978-79,were protesting against the arbitrary rule of the Shah of Iran, who was viewed by them as a stooge of the US. By continuing with their demonstrations in spite of the appeal for restraint from the Ayatollah, the present protesters would be unwittingly projecting themselves as opponents of someone (Ahmadinejad), who is widely viewed as standing in the way of a re-imposition of the US hegemony in the region and over Iran.
8. How to keep the protests focussed against the rigged elections without making it appear as directed against the post-1979 Islamic rule in Iran?That is the dilemma facing Mousavi and the protesters. Mousavi was himself a product of the Islamic revolution and had held office as Prime Minister in the initial difficult years of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. He was in the forefront of the war effort which frustrated the efforts of Saddam Hussein's Army to have the Islamic Government overthrown, with the tacit backing of the US . How can he now be seen as weakening the foundation of the Islamic system, which could play into the hands of the Americans?
9. The answers to these questions will decide the future course of the protest movement. The immediate reaction of the protesters after the address of the Ayatollah was not to relent in their protest movement and to keep it going till they have achieved their objective of a fresh election.
10.For the present, Mousavi and his supporters are going ahead with their plans for two demonstrations on Saturday and Sunday despite the refusal of permission by the Government, which is planning to suppress them. They have also appealed to the international community to demonstrate in their support on Sunday. If the Government with the help of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia succeeds in suppressing the demonstrations without many casualties----the situation could take an unpredictable turn---more violence or a collapse of the movement.
11. The Revolutionary Guards and the Basij seem to be confident that once they get the green signal for action from the Ayatollah, they should be able to put down the protest movement. Some more Tweets which have come out of Iran after the Ayatollah's speech are given below. An examination of these Tweets would indicate that the protesters are concerned that the Ayatollah's public intervention in support of Ahmadinejad has made the situation very complex calling for a careful handling of it.
Mousavi - confirmed - show support for Sea of Green from balcony starting 9pm to midnight tonight -
Mousavi - Confirmed - calls for ALL the nation to stand on balconys TONIGHT and show support with 'Allah Akbar'.
Ebrahim Yazdi has been released by Gov due to poor health.
Shahab Talebani has been arrested today.
Unconfirmed reports - Revolutionary Guard has been mobilised to secure Tehran.
The situation in Iran is now CRITICAL - the nation is heartbroken - suppression is imminent.
The Gov has refused to issue a permit for Sea of Green march at 4pm on Saturday in Tehran.
Confirmed - Mousavi calls on people of the world to march on SUNDAY in support of Sea of Green.
Confirmed - Saturday Sea of Green rally - Enghelab Sq - 4pm - Mousavi, Karoubi and Khatami will attend -
Now is dawn - we must go - location not safe - thank u for supporting Sea of Green.
NEVER log on to any proxy posted on twitter - u will be traced .
Advice - travel in groups - always tell someone where u are going - dont go out unless needed .
Political situ in Iran is v/complex - for every decision there are reasons - some we cannot mention here. (20-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary(retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Friday, June 19, 2009
INDO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS: THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
B.RAMAN
Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh met President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan at Yekaterinburg in Russia on June 16,2009. The two were in Yekaterinburg as the heads of their respective delegations to attend the summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) of which India and Pakistan are observers and not full-fledged members. It was but natural that the two met bilaterally in the margins of the summit just as they met individually the heads of other delegations. If they had not met, there could have been a negative interpretation, which would not have been desirable.
2. The ground work for the meeting had been laid by the Foreign Offices of the two countries even before the two leaders went to Russia. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in particular had taken care not to give rise to undue expectations of any immediate resumption of the composite dialogue between the two countries on various bilateral issues. The dialogue has been in a state of suspension since the terrorist strike in Mumbai by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) from November 26 to 28,2008.
3. While the terrorist strike led to a discontinuance of the composite dialogue at the instance of an angered India, it did not lead to a disruption of the diplomatic interactions between the two countries. These interactions continued, but their main focus was on India’s expectations of action by Pakistan against anti-India terrorists operating from Pakistani territory in general and against the LET and its political wing called the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) in particular.
4. The Indian expectations fell into three categories:
Firstly, mutual legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of the Pakistan-based LET conspirators involved in the Mumbai terrorist strike.
Secondly, action against the main leaders of the JUD and the LET, whether they were directly involved in the terrorist strike or not. India was particularly keen that effective legal action should be taken against Prof.Hafeez Mohammad Sayeed, the Amir of the JUD
Thirdly, action against the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory----particularly against that of the LET_-- in order to ensure that there would be no more terrorism in Indian territory emanating from Pakistan. An assurance in this regard had been given by Zardari’s predecessor Pervez Musharraf during his summit with Atal Behari Vajpayee, the then Prime Minister, at Islamabad in January 2004, but this assurance has remained unimplemented as seen in the terrorist attacks in some suburban trains of Mumbai in July,2006, and the Mumbai attack of November last.
5. Of these expectations, the only forward movement ---though halting and only partially satisfactory--- has been in respect of the mutual legal assistance. Pakistan has arrested five LET conspirators who, according to Indian investigators, were involved in planning the terrorist strike and having it carried out. They have not yet been prosecuted. While the trial in India in connection with the strike has already started, the Pakistani investigators are yet to complete their part of the investigation and start the prosecution of those under detention. They have been blaming their Indian counterparts for the delay. Only if and when the case is prosecuted and it ends in conviction can India be satisfied that there has been a genuine change for the better in Pakistan’s stand on the question of mutual legal assistance.
6. It has to be admitted that even the limited legal assistance that India had received now it had not received in respect of other past cases. In the past, Pakistan refrained from granting mutual legal assistance by questioning the credibility of the Indian evidence. It has not been able to do this now because a lot of independent evidence has come from the USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which has been making its own investigation of the murder of some American nationals by the LET at Mumbai.
7. There was a seeming forward movement in respect of action against Prof.Sayeed. He was placed under house arrest immediately after the Mumbai attack. However, the case for his continued detention was not prepared and pursued in a vigorous manner---- as if the heart of the Pakistani investigators was not in his continued detention. The result: he has been ordered to be released by the Lahore High Court before which he had challenged the legality of his detention. No appeal has so far been filed against this order.
8. There has been no forward movement at all in respect of the third Indian expectation---namely, action against the anti-Indian terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory. Of all the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist organizations operating from Pakistani territory, the LET is the closest to the Pakistan Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which look upon it as a strategic asset in their operations against India. In the past, they had always avoided taking action against the LET under some pretext or the other and there has been no change in this policy.
9. Even though the US and the European nations are increasingly concerned over the links of the LET with Al Qaeda, its capability for acts of terrorism, which is second only to that of Al Qaeda and the presence of its sleeper cells among the Pakistani-origin diaspora in many countries, they still look upon it as a looming and not an imminent threat to their nationals and interests. For them, the imminent threat is from Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Their present efforts are focused on making Pakistan act against the imminent threats while exercising only proforma pressure---- to reassure India of their solidarity--- on Pakistan to act against the LET. As a result, Pakistan’s inaction against the LET tends to be overlooked by the West so long as it is acting against the Taliban and helping the US in its actions against Al Qaeda.
10. Thus, India finds itself in an unenviable position. It is not in a position to make the US and the rest of the Western world act against Pakistan for its inaction against the LET. At the same time, it is not in a position to act by itself because it has denied to itself a deniable retaliatory capability ever since the fatal decision taken by Inder Gujral, the then Prime Minister, in 1997 to wind up any retaliatory capability as a mark of unilateral gesture to Pakistan---despite remonstrations by senior officers of our security bureaucracy that Pakistan has never been known to appreciate and reciprocate such unilateral gestures.
11. The Pakistani leaders----political or military--- know the constraints on India and are taking full advantage of them to persist with their present policy of seeming to act against the LET without actually acting against it.
12. There is a need for a comprehensive thinking on the options available to India. Any plans for the future have to provide for the following:
Effective physical security in our territory to prevent any more attacks of the Mumbai kind by the LET and its associates. Every major terrorist strike indicates a serious gap in physical security.
Effective intelligence capability to disrupt plans for a terrorist strike by identifying and neutralizing in time LET sleeper cells in our territory.
Revival of a retaliatory self-defence capability.
13. One of the major problems faced by us in dealing with the LET’s acts of terrorism in different parts of the country has been due to the failure of our political leadership and the MEA to make it clear to the world through facts and figures ---- and not through rhetoric--- that the LET’s acts have a much larger agenda and have no longer much to do with the Kashmir issue. Unfortunately, Pakistan has once again almost succeeded in making the US and the UK look at the LET activities through the Kashmir prism.
14. The Mumbai terrorist strike---the attacks on Israelis and other Jewish people, the targeted killings of nationals of countries having troops in Afghanistan, attacks on Western businessmen etc--- clearly illustrated the global agenda of the LET, but our political leadership and diplomacy failed to clearly draw attention to the much larger agenda. As a result, we are once again seeing references to the so-called linkages between the Kashmir issue and the LET’s acts of terrorism. Pakistan has profited from our inaction or inept action.
15. The meeting between Manmohan Singh and Zardari did not lead to a decision to resume the composite dialogue. It merely led to an agreement for a meeting between the Foreign Secretaries of the two countries to discuss the action taken by Pakistan after the Mumbai attack. Any decision on the resumption of the composite dialogue would depend on the outcome of this meeting.
16. Manmohan Singh is not a man of confrontation. He took the decision to freeze the composite dialogue mainly because of the fears of a likely adverse impact on the voting in the recently-held elections to the Parliament if he did not take a seemingly hard line against Pakistan. Now that the Congress (I)-led coalition has come back to power----with the Congress (I) improving its own individual position in the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Parliament--- he is unlikely to feel the need for maintaining the present hardline position on the composite dialogue.
17. In the meanwhile, there has been a window of respite in acts of Pakistan-origin jihadi terrorism in the Indian territory. There has been no act of terrorism by the so-called Indian Mujahideen since September last. There has been no major act of terrorism by the LET in the Indian territory outside J&K since November last.
18. If this respite continues, it is quite likely that Manmohan Singh will agree to a resumption of the composite dialogue in some form or the other even if the forthcoming meeting of the two Foreign Secretaries does not give satisfaction to the Indian investigators.
19. The US is equally interested in a resumption of the dialogue even if Pakistan does not act against the anti-Indian terrorist infrastructure in its territory. At the same time, in due regard to Indian sensitivities, it will continue to exercise pressure on Pakistan to improve the quality of its mutual legal assistance to India and to ensure that the present respite continues. This is an issue, which is likely to figure prominently in the discussions of Mrs.Hilary Clinton, US Secretary of State, with the Indian leaders in New Delhi during her forthcoming visit in July.
20. There have once again been warm references to India in the pronouncements of US leaders. We noticed it for the first time in the address delivered by Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, at the recent meeting of Defence Ministers at Singapore organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies of London, and in the interactions of his officials with Indian journalists who had gone to Singapore to cover the meeting. One of the officials was reported to have referred to Indo-US relations as a three-stage rocket. According to him, the first stage was fired when Bill Clinton was the President and the second stage under George Bush. He spoke tantalizingly of the coming firing of the third stage under the Obama Administration. They sought to project the Indo-US relations as enjoying broad bi-partisan support and hence unlikely to be affected by the change of incumbency in the White House. Mrs. Clinton has now given some idea of the third stage the Obama Administration has in mind in her address earlier this week to a gathering of businessmen in Washington DC.
21. The earlier coming closer together of the US and China as seen during the visit of Mrs.Clinton to Beijing in February last was partly warranted by the economic difficulties inherited by the Obama Administration from its predecessor. There are already some indications of the beginning of a possible recovery. If the recovery is maintained and strengthened, the USA’s opportunistic dependence on China for sorting out its economic ills would weaken and this could be to the benefit of India.
22. At this time, when winds of some change for the better seem to be blowing towards India from Washington DC, Manmohan Singh would find it difficult to reject suggestions from the US for a political gesture to the Government in Islamabad by way of a resumption of the composite dialogue.
23. The question is no longer whether it will be resumed, but when and how it will be projected to save the faces of both India and Pakistan. The relevant question should no longer be whether we should agree to a resumption of the composite dialogue, but how to keep up the pressure on Pakistan on the issue of anti-Indian terrorism even if the dialogue is resumed. This needs some thought by our policy-makers.
24. Indo-Pakistan relations do not have an over-all strategy. We keep zigging and zagging and riding a rollercoaster depending on the anger, pressures and compulsions of the moment. The time has come to work out a strategy, which is transparent to our people, to the people of Pakistan and to the rest of the world. (19-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh met President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan at Yekaterinburg in Russia on June 16,2009. The two were in Yekaterinburg as the heads of their respective delegations to attend the summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) of which India and Pakistan are observers and not full-fledged members. It was but natural that the two met bilaterally in the margins of the summit just as they met individually the heads of other delegations. If they had not met, there could have been a negative interpretation, which would not have been desirable.
2. The ground work for the meeting had been laid by the Foreign Offices of the two countries even before the two leaders went to Russia. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in particular had taken care not to give rise to undue expectations of any immediate resumption of the composite dialogue between the two countries on various bilateral issues. The dialogue has been in a state of suspension since the terrorist strike in Mumbai by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) from November 26 to 28,2008.
3. While the terrorist strike led to a discontinuance of the composite dialogue at the instance of an angered India, it did not lead to a disruption of the diplomatic interactions between the two countries. These interactions continued, but their main focus was on India’s expectations of action by Pakistan against anti-India terrorists operating from Pakistani territory in general and against the LET and its political wing called the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) in particular.
4. The Indian expectations fell into three categories:
Firstly, mutual legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of the Pakistan-based LET conspirators involved in the Mumbai terrorist strike.
Secondly, action against the main leaders of the JUD and the LET, whether they were directly involved in the terrorist strike or not. India was particularly keen that effective legal action should be taken against Prof.Hafeez Mohammad Sayeed, the Amir of the JUD
Thirdly, action against the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory----particularly against that of the LET_-- in order to ensure that there would be no more terrorism in Indian territory emanating from Pakistan. An assurance in this regard had been given by Zardari’s predecessor Pervez Musharraf during his summit with Atal Behari Vajpayee, the then Prime Minister, at Islamabad in January 2004, but this assurance has remained unimplemented as seen in the terrorist attacks in some suburban trains of Mumbai in July,2006, and the Mumbai attack of November last.
5. Of these expectations, the only forward movement ---though halting and only partially satisfactory--- has been in respect of the mutual legal assistance. Pakistan has arrested five LET conspirators who, according to Indian investigators, were involved in planning the terrorist strike and having it carried out. They have not yet been prosecuted. While the trial in India in connection with the strike has already started, the Pakistani investigators are yet to complete their part of the investigation and start the prosecution of those under detention. They have been blaming their Indian counterparts for the delay. Only if and when the case is prosecuted and it ends in conviction can India be satisfied that there has been a genuine change for the better in Pakistan’s stand on the question of mutual legal assistance.
6. It has to be admitted that even the limited legal assistance that India had received now it had not received in respect of other past cases. In the past, Pakistan refrained from granting mutual legal assistance by questioning the credibility of the Indian evidence. It has not been able to do this now because a lot of independent evidence has come from the USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which has been making its own investigation of the murder of some American nationals by the LET at Mumbai.
7. There was a seeming forward movement in respect of action against Prof.Sayeed. He was placed under house arrest immediately after the Mumbai attack. However, the case for his continued detention was not prepared and pursued in a vigorous manner---- as if the heart of the Pakistani investigators was not in his continued detention. The result: he has been ordered to be released by the Lahore High Court before which he had challenged the legality of his detention. No appeal has so far been filed against this order.
8. There has been no forward movement at all in respect of the third Indian expectation---namely, action against the anti-Indian terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory. Of all the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist organizations operating from Pakistani territory, the LET is the closest to the Pakistan Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which look upon it as a strategic asset in their operations against India. In the past, they had always avoided taking action against the LET under some pretext or the other and there has been no change in this policy.
9. Even though the US and the European nations are increasingly concerned over the links of the LET with Al Qaeda, its capability for acts of terrorism, which is second only to that of Al Qaeda and the presence of its sleeper cells among the Pakistani-origin diaspora in many countries, they still look upon it as a looming and not an imminent threat to their nationals and interests. For them, the imminent threat is from Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Their present efforts are focused on making Pakistan act against the imminent threats while exercising only proforma pressure---- to reassure India of their solidarity--- on Pakistan to act against the LET. As a result, Pakistan’s inaction against the LET tends to be overlooked by the West so long as it is acting against the Taliban and helping the US in its actions against Al Qaeda.
10. Thus, India finds itself in an unenviable position. It is not in a position to make the US and the rest of the Western world act against Pakistan for its inaction against the LET. At the same time, it is not in a position to act by itself because it has denied to itself a deniable retaliatory capability ever since the fatal decision taken by Inder Gujral, the then Prime Minister, in 1997 to wind up any retaliatory capability as a mark of unilateral gesture to Pakistan---despite remonstrations by senior officers of our security bureaucracy that Pakistan has never been known to appreciate and reciprocate such unilateral gestures.
11. The Pakistani leaders----political or military--- know the constraints on India and are taking full advantage of them to persist with their present policy of seeming to act against the LET without actually acting against it.
12. There is a need for a comprehensive thinking on the options available to India. Any plans for the future have to provide for the following:
Effective physical security in our territory to prevent any more attacks of the Mumbai kind by the LET and its associates. Every major terrorist strike indicates a serious gap in physical security.
Effective intelligence capability to disrupt plans for a terrorist strike by identifying and neutralizing in time LET sleeper cells in our territory.
Revival of a retaliatory self-defence capability.
13. One of the major problems faced by us in dealing with the LET’s acts of terrorism in different parts of the country has been due to the failure of our political leadership and the MEA to make it clear to the world through facts and figures ---- and not through rhetoric--- that the LET’s acts have a much larger agenda and have no longer much to do with the Kashmir issue. Unfortunately, Pakistan has once again almost succeeded in making the US and the UK look at the LET activities through the Kashmir prism.
14. The Mumbai terrorist strike---the attacks on Israelis and other Jewish people, the targeted killings of nationals of countries having troops in Afghanistan, attacks on Western businessmen etc--- clearly illustrated the global agenda of the LET, but our political leadership and diplomacy failed to clearly draw attention to the much larger agenda. As a result, we are once again seeing references to the so-called linkages between the Kashmir issue and the LET’s acts of terrorism. Pakistan has profited from our inaction or inept action.
15. The meeting between Manmohan Singh and Zardari did not lead to a decision to resume the composite dialogue. It merely led to an agreement for a meeting between the Foreign Secretaries of the two countries to discuss the action taken by Pakistan after the Mumbai attack. Any decision on the resumption of the composite dialogue would depend on the outcome of this meeting.
16. Manmohan Singh is not a man of confrontation. He took the decision to freeze the composite dialogue mainly because of the fears of a likely adverse impact on the voting in the recently-held elections to the Parliament if he did not take a seemingly hard line against Pakistan. Now that the Congress (I)-led coalition has come back to power----with the Congress (I) improving its own individual position in the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Parliament--- he is unlikely to feel the need for maintaining the present hardline position on the composite dialogue.
17. In the meanwhile, there has been a window of respite in acts of Pakistan-origin jihadi terrorism in the Indian territory. There has been no act of terrorism by the so-called Indian Mujahideen since September last. There has been no major act of terrorism by the LET in the Indian territory outside J&K since November last.
18. If this respite continues, it is quite likely that Manmohan Singh will agree to a resumption of the composite dialogue in some form or the other even if the forthcoming meeting of the two Foreign Secretaries does not give satisfaction to the Indian investigators.
19. The US is equally interested in a resumption of the dialogue even if Pakistan does not act against the anti-Indian terrorist infrastructure in its territory. At the same time, in due regard to Indian sensitivities, it will continue to exercise pressure on Pakistan to improve the quality of its mutual legal assistance to India and to ensure that the present respite continues. This is an issue, which is likely to figure prominently in the discussions of Mrs.Hilary Clinton, US Secretary of State, with the Indian leaders in New Delhi during her forthcoming visit in July.
20. There have once again been warm references to India in the pronouncements of US leaders. We noticed it for the first time in the address delivered by Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, at the recent meeting of Defence Ministers at Singapore organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies of London, and in the interactions of his officials with Indian journalists who had gone to Singapore to cover the meeting. One of the officials was reported to have referred to Indo-US relations as a three-stage rocket. According to him, the first stage was fired when Bill Clinton was the President and the second stage under George Bush. He spoke tantalizingly of the coming firing of the third stage under the Obama Administration. They sought to project the Indo-US relations as enjoying broad bi-partisan support and hence unlikely to be affected by the change of incumbency in the White House. Mrs. Clinton has now given some idea of the third stage the Obama Administration has in mind in her address earlier this week to a gathering of businessmen in Washington DC.
21. The earlier coming closer together of the US and China as seen during the visit of Mrs.Clinton to Beijing in February last was partly warranted by the economic difficulties inherited by the Obama Administration from its predecessor. There are already some indications of the beginning of a possible recovery. If the recovery is maintained and strengthened, the USA’s opportunistic dependence on China for sorting out its economic ills would weaken and this could be to the benefit of India.
22. At this time, when winds of some change for the better seem to be blowing towards India from Washington DC, Manmohan Singh would find it difficult to reject suggestions from the US for a political gesture to the Government in Islamabad by way of a resumption of the composite dialogue.
23. The question is no longer whether it will be resumed, but when and how it will be projected to save the faces of both India and Pakistan. The relevant question should no longer be whether we should agree to a resumption of the composite dialogue, but how to keep up the pressure on Pakistan on the issue of anti-Indian terrorism even if the dialogue is resumed. This needs some thought by our policy-makers.
24. Indo-Pakistan relations do not have an over-all strategy. We keep zigging and zagging and riding a rollercoaster depending on the anger, pressures and compulsions of the moment. The time has come to work out a strategy, which is transparent to our people, to the people of Pakistan and to the rest of the world. (19-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
CALLS FOR SEA OF GREEN IN IRAN ON THURSDAY & FRIDAY
B.RAMAN
"If Iran sleeps tonight, it will sleep for ever."
"Obama is a single choice US President. His only choice is not to make any choice."
"Putin and Hu do not know what is going on in Iran. They were among the first to congratulate Ahmadinejad."
------------------ From Iranian twitters.
Iranian protesters against the alleged rigging of the Presidential elections held on June 12,2009, in which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was announced to have been re-elected with a big majority are repeatedly calling upon the reformists and other opponents of theGovernment to join a huge procession to be held on June 18,2009, at Tehran in memory of eight Iranian protesters killed by the security forces when they allegedly opened fire on a procession protesting against the election results on June 15. They have appealed to theparticipants to wear a green armband. According to their information, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is planning to address a Friday congregation in Tehran on June 19,2009. They have appealed to all those planning to attend the congregation to wear a green armband. They have called for Iran to be turned into a sea of green on June 18 and 19.
2. Twitters continue to flow in from Iran beating the efforts of the Iranian security agencies to stop them. Some more twitters received up to 10 AM Indian Standard Time on June 18 are given below. Their time of origin is not known.
"Plz ignore @FreeMediaNews - the person is spreading disinfo!"
"Help FIGHT propaganda re rebels confined to Tehran, VAST rally centre of Isfahan TODAY , pass it on."
"Many many arrests in tehran 2day. hundreds. - now is dark baseej start to make trouble. "
"Help hide Iranian protesters: change your Twitter location to Tehran, time to +3:30 GMT. Please RT."
"CNN has set up a special Iran desk to monitor social networking sites, esp now that we're barred from reporting on streets of Tehran."
"RT from Iran : Yesterdays shooting outside Basiji HQ Tehran http://is.gd/13PXT
"HELP COVER THE IRANIAN BLOGGERS: CHANGE YOUR TWITTER SETTINGS SO THAT YOUR LOCATION IS TEHRAN AND YOUR TIME ZONE..http://tinyurl.com/ls8zo7
"CNN & BBC, We have NUMEROUS eye witness accounts that the Basij militia are ransacking the city of Tehran, where are you?"
"Our lives are in real danger now - we are the eyes - they need to stop us."
"Iran supreme leader under pressure ( Al Jazeera English ).
"Do NOT follow any instructions on twitter except from the trusted sources."
"Plain Clothed Basij entered people's houses broke stuff to blame freedom lovers."
"IF IRAN SLEEPS TONIGHT, IT WILL SLEEP FOR EVER"
"Tear Down This Cyberwall!" Tweets vs. Bullets"
"Men in civilian clothes attacked Day hospital in Tehran."
"Reliable Source: Families of those murdered by Basij militia are under pressure and being prevented from contacting media."
"Please disseminate this fax number as widely as possible: 001 773 321 0202. We will post any faxes we receive at iranfax.org."
"Please view these (some are graphic, warning) http://is.gd/14YjJ " "
FAX Univ. of Chicago at 001 773 321 0202. They will post any faxes we receive at iranfax.org.
"Twitter is the only open news source working in Iran right now.Twiitter maintenance shut down was postponed due to huge out cry from twitter users.Main Stream Media (State Media) has been forced and dragged kicking and screaming by twitter users to cover events in Iran .Twitter is being monitored by Iranian Secret police be careful about giving twitter addresses on RT(retweets) or any pro democracy information too specific with your tweets"
"Listen to Grandmaster Shajarian's Persian song "Iran, the Land of Hope" ."
"DON'T join Google Group "mowje-sabz". Smells like a honey-pot run by AN supporters. Spread."
" A place to gather info about the militia how's killing our brothers & sisters! http://lebasshakhsi.blogspot.
" Iran ban families of killed.Protesters R under gov. control & not allowed 2 talk2 any media."
"200 rights activists said to be arrested ."
"Mousavi is telling what 2do. "
"Ayyatollah Amjad: "I believe in Mousavi honesty".
"Fear has gone in a land that has tasted freedom."----Robert Fisk.
"Some are going to gather in front of UN office in Tehran 2morrow 2p before g/t Toop-khoone 4p ."
" Montazeri warns it is against Islam to follow orders to hurt demonstrators."
"Religion is a main part of ppl's life in Iran, but i hope clerics don't interfere in politics this much! "
"CNN Atlanta h/ just ann/ Khatami h/joined Mousavi in req/ for all jailed protesters to be released immed." ( 18-6-2009)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
"If Iran sleeps tonight, it will sleep for ever."
"Obama is a single choice US President. His only choice is not to make any choice."
"Putin and Hu do not know what is going on in Iran. They were among the first to congratulate Ahmadinejad."
------------------ From Iranian twitters.
Iranian protesters against the alleged rigging of the Presidential elections held on June 12,2009, in which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was announced to have been re-elected with a big majority are repeatedly calling upon the reformists and other opponents of theGovernment to join a huge procession to be held on June 18,2009, at Tehran in memory of eight Iranian protesters killed by the security forces when they allegedly opened fire on a procession protesting against the election results on June 15. They have appealed to theparticipants to wear a green armband. According to their information, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is planning to address a Friday congregation in Tehran on June 19,2009. They have appealed to all those planning to attend the congregation to wear a green armband. They have called for Iran to be turned into a sea of green on June 18 and 19.
2. Twitters continue to flow in from Iran beating the efforts of the Iranian security agencies to stop them. Some more twitters received up to 10 AM Indian Standard Time on June 18 are given below. Their time of origin is not known.
"Plz ignore @FreeMediaNews - the person is spreading disinfo!"
"Help FIGHT propaganda re rebels confined to Tehran, VAST rally centre of Isfahan TODAY , pass it on."
"Many many arrests in tehran 2day. hundreds. - now is dark baseej start to make trouble. "
"Help hide Iranian protesters: change your Twitter location to Tehran, time to +3:30 GMT. Please RT."
"CNN has set up a special Iran desk to monitor social networking sites, esp now that we're barred from reporting on streets of Tehran."
"RT from Iran : Yesterdays shooting outside Basiji HQ Tehran http://is.gd/13PXT
"HELP COVER THE IRANIAN BLOGGERS: CHANGE YOUR TWITTER SETTINGS SO THAT YOUR LOCATION IS TEHRAN AND YOUR TIME ZONE..http://tinyurl.com/ls8zo7
"CNN & BBC, We have NUMEROUS eye witness accounts that the Basij militia are ransacking the city of Tehran, where are you?"
"Our lives are in real danger now - we are the eyes - they need to stop us."
"Iran supreme leader under pressure ( Al Jazeera English ).
"Do NOT follow any instructions on twitter except from the trusted sources."
"Plain Clothed Basij entered people's houses broke stuff to blame freedom lovers."
"IF IRAN SLEEPS TONIGHT, IT WILL SLEEP FOR EVER"
"Tear Down This Cyberwall!" Tweets vs. Bullets"
"Men in civilian clothes attacked Day hospital in Tehran."
"Reliable Source: Families of those murdered by Basij militia are under pressure and being prevented from contacting media."
"Please disseminate this fax number as widely as possible: 001 773 321 0202. We will post any faxes we receive at iranfax.org."
"Please view these (some are graphic, warning) http://is.gd/14YjJ " "
FAX Univ. of Chicago at 001 773 321 0202. They will post any faxes we receive at iranfax.org.
"Twitter is the only open news source working in Iran right now.Twiitter maintenance shut down was postponed due to huge out cry from twitter users.Main Stream Media (State Media) has been forced and dragged kicking and screaming by twitter users to cover events in Iran .Twitter is being monitored by Iranian Secret police be careful about giving twitter addresses on RT(retweets) or any pro democracy information too specific with your tweets"
"Listen to Grandmaster Shajarian's Persian song "Iran, the Land of Hope" ."
"DON'T join Google Group "mowje-sabz". Smells like a honey-pot run by AN supporters. Spread."
" A place to gather info about the militia how's killing our brothers & sisters! http://lebasshakhsi.blogspot.
" Iran ban families of killed.Protesters R under gov. control & not allowed 2 talk2 any media."
"200 rights activists said to be arrested ."
"Mousavi is telling what 2do. "
"Ayyatollah Amjad: "I believe in Mousavi honesty".
"Fear has gone in a land that has tasted freedom."----Robert Fisk.
"Some are going to gather in front of UN office in Tehran 2morrow 2p before g/t Toop-khoone 4p ."
" Montazeri warns it is against Islam to follow orders to hurt demonstrators."
"Religion is a main part of ppl's life in Iran, but i hope clerics don't interfere in politics this much! "
"CNN Atlanta h/ just ann/ Khatami h/joined Mousavi in req/ for all jailed protesters to be released immed." ( 18-6-2009)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
MORE TWITTERS FROM IRAN
B.RAMAN
Some more twitters have managed to come out of Iran (10 PM Indian Standard Time. Time of origin not clear). These are given below:
Mousavi has asked police ministry to prevent Basijis beating ppl .
Yesterday Basji army attacked Day Hospital (In Vali-asr st, neer Vanak sq.).
Today police telling protestors: we won't beat u, but escape from arab militia. .
Pro-gov get angry of clerics for being silent!
Plz dedicate next episode of Club Life to our brave hearts in Iran!
Sources confirm 2days gathering is at Enghelab sq.
Friends! I have received a lot of proxy servers. Please don't send me proxies now so I can manage and distr. these.
The CANADIAN embassy in Tehran h/b close since Sun morning until further notice!
NO CONF. yet
Karaj open university student reporting they were forced to shout "death to mousavi" those who didn't were beaten.
SUGGESTION: RT: Use cell phones briefly, pull battery & move to diff area. Short comm, pull battery, then move
Obama refuses to 'meddle' in Iran.
Don't know freedom virus, but the link i shared is good. abt the proxies, plz email to
Turn the new version of Opera into an unstoppable grid of proxies for Iran
RT @FreedomVirus Skype software has encrypted messaging & voice commun. and can't be blocked or listened in on.
Asking question about ARMY coming to Tehran or no, plz read half of http://en.wikipedia.org/wik
Excellent article by Omid Memarian on Iran & US policy: http://bit.ly/Ss3TK
People in Mashahd have gathered in the shrine of eigth Imam in protest ( 17-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Some more twitters have managed to come out of Iran (10 PM Indian Standard Time. Time of origin not clear). These are given below:
Mousavi has asked police ministry to prevent Basijis beating ppl .
Yesterday Basji army attacked Day Hospital (In Vali-asr st, neer Vanak sq.).
Today police telling protestors: we won't beat u, but escape from arab militia. .
Pro-gov get angry of clerics for being silent!
Plz dedicate next episode of Club Life to our brave hearts in Iran!
Sources confirm 2days gathering is at Enghelab sq.
Friends! I have received a lot of proxy servers. Please don't send me proxies now so I can manage and distr. these.
The CANADIAN embassy in Tehran h/b close since Sun morning until further notice!
NO CONF. yet
Karaj open university student reporting they were forced to shout "death to mousavi" those who didn't were beaten.
SUGGESTION: RT: Use cell phones briefly, pull battery & move to diff area. Short comm, pull battery, then move
Obama refuses to 'meddle' in Iran.
Don't know freedom virus, but the link i shared is good. abt the proxies, plz email to
Turn the new version of Opera into an unstoppable grid of proxies for Iran
RT @FreedomVirus Skype software has encrypted messaging & voice commun. and can't be blocked or listened in on.
Asking question about ARMY coming to Tehran or no, plz read half of http://en.wikipedia.org/wik
Excellent article by Omid Memarian on Iran & US policy: http://bit.ly/Ss3TK
People in Mashahd have gathered in the shrine of eigth Imam in protest ( 17-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
TWITTERS FROM IRAN SILENCED?
B.RAMAN
The twitters from Iran have been decreasing in number since 4 PM Indian Standard Time on June 17,2009. Some Twitters sites have been covered with pornographic pictures.
2. The Iranian authorities stepped up their efforts to silence the Twitters after a Twitter appealing to the members of the Iranian soccer team playing in South Korea to wear green wrist bands as a sign of protest was sent across.
3. Some other Twitters monitored before 4 PM disseminated the following messages:
confirmed by MOUSAVI - Thursday march - in memory of those killed - location tbc - sea of green.
Tehran march TODAY 5pm - 7Tir Sq - Meydan 7 Tir - silent - sea of green.
BEWARE.
Khamenei has said he will preside over Friday Prayers in Tehran this week - sea of green.
Mousavi supporters to march on Friday to Friday Prayers - Namaz Joame - Tehran - sea of green.
IRIB has been saying that demos r work of anti-gov thugs. IRIB want to turn ppl against Mousavi - hack them pls.
It is now dawn in Tehran - streets are quiet - we must move from here - this was good internet connection but not ours .
Last night thousands stayed in streets between Parkway and Vanak sq until after 2 am.
Unconfirmed - several Generals have been arested.
In Azadi sq the killing was by Baseej ONLY - military did not react -
Baseej militia and Etellaat following orders - they cannot contain country without Army.
Unconfirmed - military has refused orders to shoot protesters.
Kamenei is under pressure and fighting for survival - without ANejad his authority is finished.
Large demo today outside Tehran tv-radio headquarters - Karroubi attended .
Support for Mousavi in Tabriz is v-high - many protests .
Conflicting reports from Rasht of many dead and all night street fighting.
Situation in Ahwaz critical - many many dead in past 48 hrs - hundreds arrested and beaten .
Reliable hospital sources say that at least 8 killed in Azadi sq Monday.
Sheereen Ebadi - Nobel laureat - says Iran election is void.
Militia in streets of Tehran all night trying to scare ppl .
Sannaie & Bayat supporting Moussavi.
Several HR activists inc Ebadi have spoken out against election.
Reliable source - Montazeri has withdrawn support from Khamenei.
From Tuesday our march was big success!! militia are now frightened of us - they know world is watching.
Several arrests today after tracking thru twiter proxys.
Any proxy addss shown on twitter is possible trap - freedom twitters in Iran DO NOT follow - YOUR LOCATION IS VISIBLE.
Any proxy addss twittered is blocked almost immediately.
Sorry for delay - no ISP could be accessed for long time - are now in a different location for very short time with access.
DO NOT RT any other tweeters posts unless u are 100% sure they are GENUINE .
RT all my posts as much as possble to help confuse censors.
Our lives are in real danger now - we are the eyes - they need to stop us.
Pls everyone change your location on tweeter to IRAN inc timezone GMT+3.30 hrs.
For all followers outside Iran pls follow my next tweet - v\important .
You will know them by looking at their past tweets.
I cannot name the reliable sources because we are now the main attention of censors.
Ignore all instructions from new twitters or twitters with no history of accurate posts.
Do NOT follow any instructions on twitter except from the trusted sources -
IMPORTANT to all tweeters in iran - follow my next message carefuully.
Tonight twitter is full of gov usernames. all users IGNORE all posts except from reliable sources .
Reports of street fighting in azadi sq and surrounding st's -pepper gas and fires.
1000's on balconys - Tehran is alive with sound of freedom - marg bar dictator.
Many many arrests in Tehran 2day. hundreds. - now is dark. baseej start to make trouble.
Also DoS IRIB - all hacks IRIB.
DoS vezarat ershad - DoS - pls.
Sorry for not responding to soooo many follower. v\bad internet connection - thank u everybody 4 following.
Confirmed - tomorrow Haft Teer Sq at 4pm pro mousavi\freedom - carry flowers for baseej - no confrontation .
Our scout at Evin reports many many prisoners being brought and high security outside.
If u have functional portal\proxy which has not been twitted - pls do NOT tweet it - will tell u what to do with this later.
Unconfmd major incident at Azadi - shooting - fires - ppl running.
Tonight we will have full info about Ahwaz - contact has arrived in Tehran - v\weak internet today plus diff computr k\board.
Hackers pls target vezarat ershad website - we know they jaming from that proxy.
Unconfmd - Montazeri speaks out rejecting election result.
Call from Niavaran saying plainclothes going door2door now looking for satellite dsh.
ANejad supporters not civilian, but plain clothes, many from out of Teharn.
I estimate more than quarter million for mousavi.
Demo today v\peaceful but it is going to change tonight - too many baseej tody .
Some students have left but need to get off street before night.
We have info that Tehran uni will be attacked tonight - have contact inside - says uni blocked.
Have returned from valli asr to update and request help.
Everybody try to film as much as poss today on mobiles - v\imptnt - these are eyes of world. (17-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The twitters from Iran have been decreasing in number since 4 PM Indian Standard Time on June 17,2009. Some Twitters sites have been covered with pornographic pictures.
2. The Iranian authorities stepped up their efforts to silence the Twitters after a Twitter appealing to the members of the Iranian soccer team playing in South Korea to wear green wrist bands as a sign of protest was sent across.
3. Some other Twitters monitored before 4 PM disseminated the following messages:
confirmed by MOUSAVI - Thursday march - in memory of those killed - location tbc - sea of green.
Tehran march TODAY 5pm - 7Tir Sq - Meydan 7 Tir - silent - sea of green.
BEWARE.
Khamenei has said he will preside over Friday Prayers in Tehran this week - sea of green.
Mousavi supporters to march on Friday to Friday Prayers - Namaz Joame - Tehran - sea of green.
IRIB has been saying that demos r work of anti-gov thugs. IRIB want to turn ppl against Mousavi - hack them pls.
It is now dawn in Tehran - streets are quiet - we must move from here - this was good internet connection but not ours .
Last night thousands stayed in streets between Parkway and Vanak sq until after 2 am.
Unconfirmed - several Generals have been arested.
In Azadi sq the killing was by Baseej ONLY - military did not react -
Baseej militia and Etellaat following orders - they cannot contain country without Army.
Unconfirmed - military has refused orders to shoot protesters.
Kamenei is under pressure and fighting for survival - without ANejad his authority is finished.
Large demo today outside Tehran tv-radio headquarters - Karroubi attended .
Support for Mousavi in Tabriz is v-high - many protests .
Conflicting reports from Rasht of many dead and all night street fighting.
Situation in Ahwaz critical - many many dead in past 48 hrs - hundreds arrested and beaten .
Reliable hospital sources say that at least 8 killed in Azadi sq Monday.
Sheereen Ebadi - Nobel laureat - says Iran election is void.
Militia in streets of Tehran all night trying to scare ppl .
Sannaie & Bayat supporting Moussavi.
Several HR activists inc Ebadi have spoken out against election.
Reliable source - Montazeri has withdrawn support from Khamenei.
From Tuesday our march was big success!! militia are now frightened of us - they know world is watching.
Several arrests today after tracking thru twiter proxys.
Any proxy addss shown on twitter is possible trap - freedom twitters in Iran DO NOT follow - YOUR LOCATION IS VISIBLE.
Any proxy addss twittered is blocked almost immediately.
Sorry for delay - no ISP could be accessed for long time - are now in a different location for very short time with access.
DO NOT RT any other tweeters posts unless u are 100% sure they are GENUINE .
RT all my posts as much as possble to help confuse censors.
Our lives are in real danger now - we are the eyes - they need to stop us.
Pls everyone change your location on tweeter to IRAN inc timezone GMT+3.30 hrs.
For all followers outside Iran pls follow my next tweet - v\important .
You will know them by looking at their past tweets.
I cannot name the reliable sources because we are now the main attention of censors.
Ignore all instructions from new twitters or twitters with no history of accurate posts.
Do NOT follow any instructions on twitter except from the trusted sources -
IMPORTANT to all tweeters in iran - follow my next message carefuully.
Tonight twitter is full of gov usernames. all users IGNORE all posts except from reliable sources .
Reports of street fighting in azadi sq and surrounding st's -pepper gas and fires.
1000's on balconys - Tehran is alive with sound of freedom - marg bar dictator.
Many many arrests in Tehran 2day. hundreds. - now is dark. baseej start to make trouble.
Also DoS IRIB - all hacks IRIB.
DoS vezarat ershad - DoS - pls.
Sorry for not responding to soooo many follower. v\bad internet connection - thank u everybody 4 following.
Confirmed - tomorrow Haft Teer Sq at 4pm pro mousavi\freedom - carry flowers for baseej - no confrontation .
Our scout at Evin reports many many prisoners being brought and high security outside.
If u have functional portal\proxy which has not been twitted - pls do NOT tweet it - will tell u what to do with this later.
Unconfmd major incident at Azadi - shooting - fires - ppl running.
Tonight we will have full info about Ahwaz - contact has arrived in Tehran - v\weak internet today plus diff computr k\board.
Hackers pls target vezarat ershad website - we know they jaming from that proxy.
Unconfmd - Montazeri speaks out rejecting election result.
Call from Niavaran saying plainclothes going door2door now looking for satellite dsh.
ANejad supporters not civilian, but plain clothes, many from out of Teharn.
I estimate more than quarter million for mousavi.
Demo today v\peaceful but it is going to change tonight - too many baseej tody .
Some students have left but need to get off street before night.
We have info that Tehran uni will be attacked tonight - have contact inside - says uni blocked.
Have returned from valli asr to update and request help.
Everybody try to film as much as poss today on mobiles - v\imptnt - these are eyes of world. (17-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
IRAN: KEEP QUIET & WATCH
B.RAMAN
"US was against Iran gov 30 years & now that they are killing PPL, they r supporting the Iranian gov!what a shame! "
So says a message from Iran.
Another says:" They call homes and a tape says you were in the protests,don't repeat otherwise you will be arrested. Tell people don't afraid."
A third message says: "Moussavi asks people to confront military with flowers not guns - we want peace. "
Yet another asks: "Will this be the Berlin Wall coming down or just another Tianenmen Sq.? I wonder to myself."
Messages in plenty keep coming out of Iran----despite the action taken by the security agencies of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to block access to the outside world through the Internet and telephone to its poitical dissidents, who have mounted a determined campaign against what they describe as the fraudulent re-election of Ahmadinejad.
The Iranian authorities have sought to impose an iron curtain across the country to prevent news of the widespread demonstrations against the allegedly rigged elections from reaching the outside world. They have not been able to.
The dissidents have till now succeeded in keeping touch with each other and with the outside world. The messages sent across are very brief and in telegraphic language.
They give an idea of the anger which has been sweeping across the country. But they do not enable one to quantify the extent and spread of the anger. The demonstrations held in Tehran and outside by the reformists have been impressive. Their tactics recall those adopted by the anti-Shah demonstrators of 1978-79.
The word of mouth calls for demonstrating, which one saw in 1978-79, have been supplemented by mobilisation through the Internet.
There is a difference. The demonstrations of 1978-79 were guided and orchestrated from outside by a group of political and student exiles based in the West. The demonstrations of today are spontaneous.
There is so far no evidence to show any orchestration of the demonstrations by the exiles abroad. Nor is there any evidence to show orchestration by Mir Hossein Mousavi and other defeated candidates, though they have been joining them.
The demonstrators are anxious not to give an opportunity to Ahmadinejad's security agencies to discredit them by projecting them as acting at the behest of foreign agencies and elements.
While keeping the outside world informed, they are taking care not to give the impression of seeking outside support. They want to keep up the spontaneous nature of the demonstrations and to maintain their momentum in order to exercise pressure on the Government for the annulment of the election results and for a fresh election.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has evidently been on the defensive. After having initially given the impression of endorsing the legitimacy of the election results, he has now been trying to project a seemingly neutral position. He has asked the supporters of the reformist groups to let the Guardians Council decide on their objections.
The Council has suggested a selective recount in constituencies including some in the home province of Mousavi to check whether there were any mistakes or irregularities. The dissidents are not prepared to accept this. They are sticking to their demand for a fresh poll.
Whether they succeed or not would depend on whether they are able to maintain the momentum, peaceful nature and spontaneity of their demonstrations.
The Government of Ahmadinejad would like nothing better than an outbreak of violence or indications of instigation from outside.
The administration of President Barack Obama has been well-advised to avoid any comments, which could be projected as instigation. Congressional leaders in the US and other Western leaders should emulate this example.
Keep quiet and watch should be their policy for the present. (17-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
"US was against Iran gov 30 years & now that they are killing PPL, they r supporting the Iranian gov!what a shame! "
So says a message from Iran.
Another says:" They call homes and a tape says you were in the protests,don't repeat otherwise you will be arrested. Tell people don't afraid."
A third message says: "Moussavi asks people to confront military with flowers not guns - we want peace. "
Yet another asks: "Will this be the Berlin Wall coming down or just another Tianenmen Sq.? I wonder to myself."
Messages in plenty keep coming out of Iran----despite the action taken by the security agencies of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to block access to the outside world through the Internet and telephone to its poitical dissidents, who have mounted a determined campaign against what they describe as the fraudulent re-election of Ahmadinejad.
The Iranian authorities have sought to impose an iron curtain across the country to prevent news of the widespread demonstrations against the allegedly rigged elections from reaching the outside world. They have not been able to.
The dissidents have till now succeeded in keeping touch with each other and with the outside world. The messages sent across are very brief and in telegraphic language.
They give an idea of the anger which has been sweeping across the country. But they do not enable one to quantify the extent and spread of the anger. The demonstrations held in Tehran and outside by the reformists have been impressive. Their tactics recall those adopted by the anti-Shah demonstrators of 1978-79.
The word of mouth calls for demonstrating, which one saw in 1978-79, have been supplemented by mobilisation through the Internet.
There is a difference. The demonstrations of 1978-79 were guided and orchestrated from outside by a group of political and student exiles based in the West. The demonstrations of today are spontaneous.
There is so far no evidence to show any orchestration of the demonstrations by the exiles abroad. Nor is there any evidence to show orchestration by Mir Hossein Mousavi and other defeated candidates, though they have been joining them.
The demonstrators are anxious not to give an opportunity to Ahmadinejad's security agencies to discredit them by projecting them as acting at the behest of foreign agencies and elements.
While keeping the outside world informed, they are taking care not to give the impression of seeking outside support. They want to keep up the spontaneous nature of the demonstrations and to maintain their momentum in order to exercise pressure on the Government for the annulment of the election results and for a fresh election.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has evidently been on the defensive. After having initially given the impression of endorsing the legitimacy of the election results, he has now been trying to project a seemingly neutral position. He has asked the supporters of the reformist groups to let the Guardians Council decide on their objections.
The Council has suggested a selective recount in constituencies including some in the home province of Mousavi to check whether there were any mistakes or irregularities. The dissidents are not prepared to accept this. They are sticking to their demand for a fresh poll.
Whether they succeed or not would depend on whether they are able to maintain the momentum, peaceful nature and spontaneity of their demonstrations.
The Government of Ahmadinejad would like nothing better than an outbreak of violence or indications of instigation from outside.
The administration of President Barack Obama has been well-advised to avoid any comments, which could be projected as instigation. Congressional leaders in the US and other Western leaders should emulate this example.
Keep quiet and watch should be their policy for the present. (17-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, June 14, 2009
AHMADINEJAD OR OBAMA---WHO WILL HAVE THE LAST LAUGH?
B.RAMAN
The surprise re-election of incumbent Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the first round itself of the Iranian Presidential elections on June 12,2009, has been questioned by his opponents in the reformist camp, who had backed his leading opponent Mir Hossein Mousavi. According to the results announced by the Interior Ministry, Ahmadinejad secured 62.6 per cent of the votes polled and Mousavi only 33.8 per cent.
2.Reliable reports from Iran during the election campaign did not speak of any pro-Ahmadinejad wave. On the contrary, there were reports of unusual support for Mousavi, the reformist candidate, who had promised a change from the confrontationist policies of the incumbent President.
3. The unusually large turn-out of 85 per cent of the eligible voters strengthened the impression of an anti-Ahmadinejad wave and gave rise to expectations of a possible Mousavi victory in the first round itself. The announcement by the Interior Ministry that Ahmadinejad has been voted back with a huge majority has stunned his opponents, who suspect widespread rigging by the official machinery to ensure the continuance in power of Ahmadinejad.
4. There have been reports of sporadic violent incidents by the angry members of the reformist groups who have questioned the validity of the results. Over 100 leading members and cadres of the reformist groups are reported to have been arrested.
5. Opponents of Ahmadinejad can challenge his election before the Guardian Council before Sunday, but the Council, which has traditionally been against the reformists, is unlikely to set the election aside. The endorsement of the election results by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, makes it unlikely that the challenges of the opposition will be accepted.
6. With the backing of Ayatollah Khamenei , Ahmadinejad should have no difficulty in putting down any street violence if it persists. The reformists too may like to avoid a confrontational situation over the disputed election.
7. From the initial pronouncements of Ahmadinejad, who has hailed his re-election as an epic moment, it is apparent that he is not embarrassed by the opposition allegations of rigging and is confident of the legitimacy of his re-election ultimately prevailing.
8. The country most concerned by the re-election of Ahmadinejad would be Israel. There is unlikely to be any change in his hardline, virulent stand against Israel and the Jewish people and he will continue with his policy of seeking to undermine the Jewish State. He will press ahead with Iran’s nuclear programme by expanding its capacity for uranium enrichment by installing more centrifuges under the pretext of producing low-grade enriched uranium for the production of electricity.
9. At a time, when Israel is confused and disheartened by the less than enthusiastic support for its security concerns from the Barack Obama Administration, the re-election of Ahmadinejad would add to its fears regarding the security of the country and its citizens living in the midst of a hostile Islamic world.
10. What gave confidence and optimism to Israel in the past was the steadfast support from a succession of American Presidents. Right from the birth of the State of Israel, successive US Presidents had not hesitated to strongly endorse and support the security concerns of Israel. For the first time, the US has a President, who has been showing a worrisome insensitivity to the concerns of Israel and the Jewish people and has been trying to project a picture of neutrality in the confrontation between the Jewish people and the Arabs and Iranians, in the belief, which could prove to be mistaken, that he could thereby win the hearts and minds of the Arabs and other Muslims.
11. At a time when large sections of the people of Israel feel increasingly that their basic interests have been betrayed by Obama, the re-election of Ahmadinejad, who had in the past vowed to work against the existence of Israel, would add to Israeli fears of an existential threat to the Jewish State and strengthen its determination to act against Iran before it acquires a military nuclear capability.
12.Presuming that the large number of votes that Ahmadinejad reportedly obtained were genuine and not rigged, the rallying of so many voters behind him could be attributed only partially to their support for his pro-poor economic policies. Another major reason ought to have been their endorsement of his hardline policy towards Israel and the US and his determination to press ahead with Iran’s nuclear programme. It is a strong nationalistic vote meant to support the foreign and nuclear policies hitherto followed by Ahmadinejad.
13. The US would have hoped for the victory of the reformists. These hopes have been belied and the US would have to make do with Ahmadinejad. Iran is not North Korea. North Korea has only the nuclear and missile cards against the US. Iran has many--- its oil, the support enjoyed by it in the Islamic world, its perceived indispensability for peace and stability in Iraq and a similar role that it could play in Afghanistan. With so many cards in its hands, Obama will find Iran a tough nut to crack.
14. The US has had the Israeli card against Iran. Teheran was always nervous about the possibility of the US encouraging Israel to put Iran in its place if the worst comes to the worst. Obama has thrown away that card much to the relief of Iran.
15. If Iran spurns Obama’s overtures to it and follows on its nuclear and anti-Israel path, Obama has not kept for himself a fall-back option. In his anxiety to project a “good guy” image of himself right across the Islamic world, including Iran, Obama has unwittingly encouraged hardline elements such as Ahmadinejad, who have no genuine love for the US and who will lose no opportunity to make the interests of the Islamic world prevail over those of the international community.
16. The US may have to pay a heavy price for Obama’s policy U-turns in the Arab world and towards Iran.
17. Who will have the last laugh---- Obama or the likes of Ahmadinejad, Kim-Jong-il, Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Afghan Taliban, or Osama bin Laden? One wishes it will be Obama, but one apprehends it may not be him (14-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The surprise re-election of incumbent Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the first round itself of the Iranian Presidential elections on June 12,2009, has been questioned by his opponents in the reformist camp, who had backed his leading opponent Mir Hossein Mousavi. According to the results announced by the Interior Ministry, Ahmadinejad secured 62.6 per cent of the votes polled and Mousavi only 33.8 per cent.
2.Reliable reports from Iran during the election campaign did not speak of any pro-Ahmadinejad wave. On the contrary, there were reports of unusual support for Mousavi, the reformist candidate, who had promised a change from the confrontationist policies of the incumbent President.
3. The unusually large turn-out of 85 per cent of the eligible voters strengthened the impression of an anti-Ahmadinejad wave and gave rise to expectations of a possible Mousavi victory in the first round itself. The announcement by the Interior Ministry that Ahmadinejad has been voted back with a huge majority has stunned his opponents, who suspect widespread rigging by the official machinery to ensure the continuance in power of Ahmadinejad.
4. There have been reports of sporadic violent incidents by the angry members of the reformist groups who have questioned the validity of the results. Over 100 leading members and cadres of the reformist groups are reported to have been arrested.
5. Opponents of Ahmadinejad can challenge his election before the Guardian Council before Sunday, but the Council, which has traditionally been against the reformists, is unlikely to set the election aside. The endorsement of the election results by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, makes it unlikely that the challenges of the opposition will be accepted.
6. With the backing of Ayatollah Khamenei , Ahmadinejad should have no difficulty in putting down any street violence if it persists. The reformists too may like to avoid a confrontational situation over the disputed election.
7. From the initial pronouncements of Ahmadinejad, who has hailed his re-election as an epic moment, it is apparent that he is not embarrassed by the opposition allegations of rigging and is confident of the legitimacy of his re-election ultimately prevailing.
8. The country most concerned by the re-election of Ahmadinejad would be Israel. There is unlikely to be any change in his hardline, virulent stand against Israel and the Jewish people and he will continue with his policy of seeking to undermine the Jewish State. He will press ahead with Iran’s nuclear programme by expanding its capacity for uranium enrichment by installing more centrifuges under the pretext of producing low-grade enriched uranium for the production of electricity.
9. At a time, when Israel is confused and disheartened by the less than enthusiastic support for its security concerns from the Barack Obama Administration, the re-election of Ahmadinejad would add to its fears regarding the security of the country and its citizens living in the midst of a hostile Islamic world.
10. What gave confidence and optimism to Israel in the past was the steadfast support from a succession of American Presidents. Right from the birth of the State of Israel, successive US Presidents had not hesitated to strongly endorse and support the security concerns of Israel. For the first time, the US has a President, who has been showing a worrisome insensitivity to the concerns of Israel and the Jewish people and has been trying to project a picture of neutrality in the confrontation between the Jewish people and the Arabs and Iranians, in the belief, which could prove to be mistaken, that he could thereby win the hearts and minds of the Arabs and other Muslims.
11. At a time when large sections of the people of Israel feel increasingly that their basic interests have been betrayed by Obama, the re-election of Ahmadinejad, who had in the past vowed to work against the existence of Israel, would add to Israeli fears of an existential threat to the Jewish State and strengthen its determination to act against Iran before it acquires a military nuclear capability.
12.Presuming that the large number of votes that Ahmadinejad reportedly obtained were genuine and not rigged, the rallying of so many voters behind him could be attributed only partially to their support for his pro-poor economic policies. Another major reason ought to have been their endorsement of his hardline policy towards Israel and the US and his determination to press ahead with Iran’s nuclear programme. It is a strong nationalistic vote meant to support the foreign and nuclear policies hitherto followed by Ahmadinejad.
13. The US would have hoped for the victory of the reformists. These hopes have been belied and the US would have to make do with Ahmadinejad. Iran is not North Korea. North Korea has only the nuclear and missile cards against the US. Iran has many--- its oil, the support enjoyed by it in the Islamic world, its perceived indispensability for peace and stability in Iraq and a similar role that it could play in Afghanistan. With so many cards in its hands, Obama will find Iran a tough nut to crack.
14. The US has had the Israeli card against Iran. Teheran was always nervous about the possibility of the US encouraging Israel to put Iran in its place if the worst comes to the worst. Obama has thrown away that card much to the relief of Iran.
15. If Iran spurns Obama’s overtures to it and follows on its nuclear and anti-Israel path, Obama has not kept for himself a fall-back option. In his anxiety to project a “good guy” image of himself right across the Islamic world, including Iran, Obama has unwittingly encouraged hardline elements such as Ahmadinejad, who have no genuine love for the US and who will lose no opportunity to make the interests of the Islamic world prevail over those of the international community.
16. The US may have to pay a heavy price for Obama’s policy U-turns in the Arab world and towards Iran.
17. Who will have the last laugh---- Obama or the likes of Ahmadinejad, Kim-Jong-il, Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Afghan Taliban, or Osama bin Laden? One wishes it will be Obama, but one apprehends it may not be him (14-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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