THE JUGULAR REALITY: INDIA’S STRATEGIC DEBATE

B.RAMAN

For over a year now, a strategic debate has been going on in Delhi on future threat scenarios relating to State and non-State actors.

2. Our preoccupation till now has been with the continuing threats from the State of Pakistan and from the jihadi terrorist organisations nursed by it. It has also been with China’s continuing collusion with Pakistan and the dangers of a two-front war arising therefrom.

3. The debate has been between a group of classical thinkers and a new generation of thinkers who perceive themselves to be forward-looking and visionary.

4. The classical thinkers do not underestimate the implications of increasing Chinese military and cyber activism. They are worried over the sustained pace of modernisation of the Chinese armed forces and Bejing’s economic clout which enables it to pursue its agenda of power projection.

5.They are equally worried over the increasing Chinese military capabilities in the outer and cyber space . They are, therefore, all for paying additional attention to measures required for strengthening our capabilities vis-à-vis China----by way of infrastructure development, modernisation of our Armed Forces, intelligence agencies and cyber capabilities and revamping our diplomatic skills required to deal with a rising China.

6. To some measure, there is  a convergence of thinking between the classical thinkers and the forward-looking. The forward-looking thinkers are even more worried about China than about Pakistan and want India to take not only the conventional measures outlined above, but even go far ahead by way of building up strategic convergences and co-ordinated thinking with other powers  such as the US, Japan. South Korea and Australia.

7. The new generation of strategic thinkers looks upon our present focus on Pakistan to be over-done and advocate mid-course corrections in order to be able to divert more resources for coping with China.

8. Both the classical and new generation thinkers are agreed  that “how to cope with the rising China---politically, economically and militarily” should be the central question in our strategic debates. However, whereas the new generation of thinkers tends to take a more relaxed attitude towards Pakistan without letting an obsession with Pakistan distort our strategic thinking, the classical thinkers keep cautioning that in our anxiety over the implications of a rising China, we should not forget our painful historical experiences because of the compulsive hostility of the Pakistani State and non-State actors towards India.

9. According to the classical thinkers, there has been no historical enmity between India and China. China’s interests are limited to asserting  what it claims to be   its sovereignty over certain border areas as in Arunachal Pradesh. It also wants to ensure that no threats could arise to its control over Tibet from the Tibetan diaspora in India. Beyond that, they feel, it has no objective of wanting to keep India weak and divided by adding to its internal security problems.

10. On the other hand, Pakistan’s hostility to India is historical and multi-dimensional relating to Jammu & Kashmir and its objective of keeping India weak and divided by constantly adding to its internal security problems.

11. Whoever may be the ruler of Pakistan and whatever may be the overtures and concessions made by India, the “go for India’s jugular” instinct of Pakistan should remain the constant worrisome factor in India’s strategic thinking and planning. So, the classical thinkers feel. That is what an operational and intellectual giant of the R&AW whom I worship told me during a chat.

12. By all means, we should be able to cope with China better so that we don’t become a second rate power of Asia, but in our anxiety on this count, we should not let our capability to protect our jugular from Pakistan be weakened.

13. It is a timely and healthy debate. It is hoped it will lead to a healthy mix of our strategic priorities. (6-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

TIBETANS FRUSTRATED BY OBAMA’S AMBIVALENCE ON TIBET

 

B.RAMAN

Tibetans, both in the occupied Tibetan areas of China and in the diaspora, are increasingly frustrated by what they perceive as the ambivalent attitude of President Barack Obama on the continued unrest in the Tibetan areas of China and the violations of the human rights of the Tibetans by Beijing.

2.The Obama Administration, like its predecessor administrations, treats His Holiness the Dalai Lama with due courtesies during his periodic visits to Washington DC. These courtesies include unofficial meetings between the President and His Holiness.

3. The Obama Administration has also been periodically voicing its unhappiness and concern over the continued violations of the human rights of the Tibetans by Beijing and urging it to resume  the now-stalled  talks with the representatives of His Holiness.

4. But the Tibetans expected  a greater activism by the US in view of the increasingly grim situation prevailing in the Tibetan areas since March 2011 following the protests of the monks of the Kirti monastery in Sichuan against the continued Han colonisation of the Tibetan areas. The monks have also been demanding the return of His Holiness to Lhasa to take over the religious leadership of his people.

5. This grim situation has been marked by nearly 40 self-immolation attempts by both Tibetan men and women, detention without trial of defiant monks of the Kirti monastery in a military camp of Sichuan and forcibly subjecting many monks and others to what the Chinese call re-education. During these re-education classes, they are forced to denounce His Holiness and swear loyalty to the Chinese Government and Communist Party.

6. This grim situation, which initially started in Sichuan, subsequently spread to Qinghai and Gansi and is recently showing signs of spreading to Lhasa in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) bordering on India and Nepal. Lhasa saw two self-immolation attempts on May 27 by monks who had come from outside the TAG.

7. Sources say that following the incidents in Lhasa, nearly about 3000 members of the Chinese security forces have undertaken house-to-house enquiries to locate and arrest Tibetans who had come to Lhasa  from outside the TAG and send them back to their provinces. About 600 local monks and others have reportedly been rounded up and shifted to a military camp of Lhasa for so-called re-education.

8. The details of the grim situation are well known to international human rights organisations, including the Human Rights Watch of the US. They have been highlighting these violations and demanding for over a year that international human rights observers should be allowed to visit the detention camp set up by Beijing in Sichuan, but the Chinese authorities have ignored these demands with contempt.

9. They have also been ignoring with contempt the periodic exhortations from Washington DC to resume talks with the representatives of His Holiness. The Chinese have repeatedly made it clear that any talks with the representatives of His Holiness will be on the personal future of His Holiness and not on the future of the Tibetan areas under Chinese occupation. They do not recognise the right of His Holiness to negotiate on behalf of the Tibetan people.

10. In the face of this political deadlock and deteriorating human rights situation, Tibetan hopes that during her recent visit to Beijing  Mrs. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, would take up vigorously the grim human rights situation in the Tibetan areas were belied.

11. It is this disappointment and frustration that are reflected in the decision on May 31,2012, of two senior advisers of His Holiness ---- Lodi Gyari and Kelsang Gyaltsen--- to resign from leadership positions in the team constituted by His Holiness to hold talks with the authorities of the Chinese Communist Party from time to time.

12.In an announcement, they  "expressed their utter frustration over the lack of positive response from the Chinese side.” While they have attributed their resignations, which have been accepted by the Tibetan Government-in-exile, to their frustration over the negative Chinese attitude, it is reliably understood that the hesitation of the Obama Administration to vigorously take up with Beijing the grim human rights situation has also contributed to their frustration, but they have not mentioned so in public.

13.His Holiness, who is no longer involved in the day-to-day running of the Government-in-exile, has not so far commented on the resignations, but it is unlikely that the two would have taken the decision without informally consulting His Holiness beforehand. Beijing is unlikely to be moved by their resignations. It is to be seen what impact it has on the Obama Administration.

14.A statement issued by the Government-in-exile after accepting their resignations  urged Beijing to accept the Dalai Lama's "middle-way" approach, which seeks genuine autonomy for Tibetans within China and within the framework of the Chinese constitution. It said: "This is a win-win proposition, which contributes to PRC’s unity, stability, harmony and its peaceful rise in the world."

15.The Tibetan task force on the negotiations with Beijing will be expanded and will meet again in December to discuss the Chinese leadership transition with the hope of continuing a dialogue with the new Chinese leaders to peacefully resolve the issue of Tibet, the statement said.

16. The Tibetans see no likelihood of any forward movement in addressing the grievances of the Tibetans in view of the forthcoming leadership transition in Beijing and the US Presidential elections. The Government-in-exile has, therefore, decided to wait till the end of the year. What impact this will have on the grim ground situation in the Tibetan areas  remains to be seen.(5-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

A WAKE-UP CALL FOR THE NATION

B.RAMAN

In a personal  Blog post titled “BJP: A Hub of Hope”, Shri L.K.Advani, former Deputy Prime Minister and senior leader of the BJP, has stated as follows: “I had said at the Core Group meeting that if people are today angry with the U.P.A. Government, they are also disappointed with us. The situation, I said, calls for introspection.” (http://blog.lkadvani.in/blog-in-english/bjp-a-hub-of-hope )

2. Even as the analysts were discussing the significance of his Blog post, an article in the latest issue of “Panchajanya”, the journal of the RSS, has also expressed openly disquiet over certain recent developments in the BJP focussed on the efforts of some elements supporting the candidature of Shri Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister to force their will  on the RSS and the BJP.

3. The article states that the  BJP has several chief ministers and central leaders who are capable of being its prime ministerial candidate and hence the decision on this matter should be made after the general elections. (http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-why-only-modi-bjp-has-many-pm-candidates-rss/20120602.htm )

4. While Shri Advani’s Blog post talks in general about the public perception of the state of affairs in the party without naming anyone, the “Panchajanya” article makes no secret of the fact that it has been triggered by the pressure tactics adopted by the supporters of NaMo to force the party to accept NaMo as the prime ministerial candidate even before the next elections.

5. While it would be unreasonable to expect the BJP and the RSS to be more specific in their concerns, these have come to the fore in the context of the recent stepped- up efforts of the supporters of NaMo---many of them NRIs based in the US--- to see that NaMo is accepted by the BJP and the RSS as the prime ministerial candidate.

6. Since the beginning of last year, I have been drawing attention to the Nazi Storm Trooper-like methods adopted by many followers of NaMo to impose their will on their party and then the nation. Anyone aware of the methods used by the Nazi Storm Troopers to force the German people to accept Hitler as their leader would be struck by the similarity of the rhetoric and PSYWAR methods used by these pro-NaMo elements whom I have been referring to as the NaMo Brigade.

7. They  do not call themselves the NaMo Brigade, but they make no secret of the fact that they support NaMo as the next Prime Minister of India. Their worrisome methods, reminiscent of the methods used by the Storm Troopers, consist largely of abuse, vituperation, disinformation, character assassination and psychological pressure. Whereas the Nazi Storm Troopers did not have the benefit of the computer and the Internet, the NaMo Brigade, which has established a dominance over the means of propaganda through the Net in the absence of any opposition to their methods from secular and liberal elements, has been using the social media networks in their PSYWAR.

8. Nobody can object to their campaign in favour of NaMo as the Prime Minister despite his perceived misdeeds of the past. But one has reasons to be concerned over the ways adopted by these elements in an attempt to enforce their will on the nation. If they succeed due to lack of adequate  public knowledge of the sinister implications of their strategy and the inadequate attempts to counter their methods, the nation may have to pay a heavy price.

9. India needs a strong, efficient and effective ruler, but not a Hitler. That ruler has to be chosen by the people through their free will and not imposed on them through stage-managed and orchestrated pressure.

10. It is time to sound a wake-up call about the dangerous implications of the pressure tactics and Storm Trooper methods being  used to force the BJP, the RSS and the Nation to accept NaMo who is being sought to be projected by these elements as God’s own choice to rule India at this critical juncture.

11. While it is up to the political parties to draw up their respective strategy to ensure that such methods do not find a place in our political landscape, it is important for others too to educate public opinion on the activities of these elements and the great harm that they can cause to our democracy.

12. The new strategy to be worked out should focus not on the past misdeeds of NaMo, but on the  future misdeeds that are likely to be committed by these elements if their methods succeed. ( 3-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

LIVING & SLEEPING WITH MY CANCER

B.RAMAN

I will be 76 on August 14. On October 24, it will be three years since the metastasised  cancer in my urinary tract was detected and the hormonal therapy ( total androgen blocade) started.

2. The therapy is based on the discovery that any cancer of prostate origin shrinks if it is denied the male sex hormone that acts as a fertiliser for the tumour. I had to undergo an injection once in three months and take a hormonal tablet called Calutide 50 every day. The course of injections was stopped after two years in November last. According to my doctor, if the injections are continued for more than two years, the bones tend to get brittle.

3. This was the least aggressive of the therapies available and I chose it. The other options, that were more aggressive and often more effective, were surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy. They cause considerable side-effects and hence I decided not to have them.

4. By the time my cancer, which started in the prostate, was detected, it had spread to the urinary bladder, nearby bones and some lymphnodes.  Surprisingly, my PSA (Total and Free) levels, which give the first indication of the presence of the cancer in the prostate, were normal. The scans showed the cancer in the bladder, but not in the prostate. It was detected only during a diagnostic procedure. The spread of the cancer to some bones and lymphnodes was detected during a scan with radioactive isotopes.

5. It was graded as high grade cancer of prostate origin, but the cancer had no effect on my energy, weight and appetite and I had no pain anywhere in the body. The first external symptom that led to the detection was the presence of heavy blood in the urine.

6. The only two discomforts caused so far by the cancer and therapy are constipation and a slight pain in my right feet since last November. The doctors had cautioned me that the spread of the cancer to some bones could cause heavy back pain and radiating pain in the upper parts of the legs. This has not happened so far.

7. The therapy caused the cancer in the prostate to shrink totally and in the bladder partially. Since I never took a bone scan, I do not know anything about the cancer in the bones or lymphnodes. The doctor has also not insisted on a bone scan. Since I have had no pain, I have presumed that it has not spread.

8. Before the cancer was detected, I used to be a daily drinker of Scotch and Soda---taking two large pegs every day and three on Saturdays. After the detection, on the doctor’s advice, I reduced it to three or four days a month, but during my recent visits to Delhi I was drinking almost daily with friends.

9. In July last year, the Government of India sought my assistance in an advisory capacity to enable the Task Force on National Security headed by Shri Naresh Chandra, former Cabinet Secretary, complete its work. My elder brother was strongly against my accepting it since he feared that it might render me weak, but I accepted it. I used to travel to Delhi three times a month spending about 12 to 15 days every month there. In May, I spent 18 days---- 11 of them continuously.

10. During my stay in Delhi, I used to work from 10 AM to midnight---- with an one-hour break for lunch and two hours for dinner. I withstood the strain remarkably well as if I was a 40-year-old healthy person. I was amazed by my energy level despite the two discomforts mentioned above which continued.

11. Normally, human reactions to the detection of cancer vary from individual to individual. Many withdraw into a shell and avoid sharing with friends and others except close relatives the news of their cancer. Some share with relatives, but not with friends. Some share with everybody. I am told the majority of the cancer patients tend to become depressed when the disease is detected.

12.In my case, I have remained cheerful from the beginning. I share freely all details of my cancer and the treatment with whoever is interested on my own without their having to ask me questions. An American friend of mine once jocularly remarked: "Raman is the first cancer patient known to me who brags in public about his cancer as if he has achieved something great by getting cancer.”

13.My cheerfulness and my readiness to share have kept my morale sustained. Sometimes, some of  my Twitter buddies are surprised by the loud-tweeting I do about my cancer and think I must be depressed, but I am never depressed.

14. But I am bothered often by the thought  not of pain starting, but of my developing a dependence on others if the cancer spreads further. I have always been a self-reliant person. Never in my life have I been dependent on others in personal matters. The feeling (not fear) that I might one day become dependent on others bothers me.

15. My calm disposition and my habit of always looking at the brighter side of life have helped me in my fight against the cancer. I felt proud of myself when my Doctors remarked last year that I have driven the cancer out of my body through sheer will power and not through the therapy.

16. All human beings like to be praised. Cancer patients are no exception. The morale of cancer patients goes up when they are told  that they are looking normal and do not look like cancer patients. During my frequent visits to Delhi, my morale used to go up every time I was complimented on my normal  energy level. I was myself amazed by it and I used to feel very happy when others noticed it and remarked on it.

17. Please don’t tell a lie to a cancer patient. By doing so, you are not helping him or her. But if you find a cancer patient looking good and doing well, don’t hesitate to tell him as sincerely as you can.

18. Cancer patients have their good moments and bad moments. I too though I try not to show my mood changes. If you find us occasionally irritable or nasty, try to understand us. Those are passing phases.

19. There are two things I miss greatly—my daily S & S and my foreign travels. Inside India, I have been travelling as frequently and as vigorously as I used to do before the cancer was detected in October 2009. I used to travel abroad for discussions and seminars seven or eight times a year. I have stopped all my foreign travels since September 2009. My doc has been encouraging me to resume my foreign travels. But I am hesitant due to a fear that if internal bleeding or pain starts during my stay abroad, my hosts might be put to difficulty.

20. As I often say, I have learnt to peacefully co-exist with my cancer. There is a lovely song of Georges Moustaki, the French singer of Greek origin, titled “Ma Solitude”. He sings: “ I never feel alone because my Solitude always keep me company and sleeps with me in bed.”

21. I never feel depressed  because my cancer and I have learnt to live and sleep with each other. My cancer is my live-in companion. ( 2-6-12)