B.RAMAN
My attention has been drawn to a disturbing documentary titled “Sri Lanka’s Killing Fields” produced by Mr.Jon Snow of the Channel4 TV channel of the UK.
2.The documentary highlights the results of a forensic investigation into the bloody culmination phase of the counter-insurgency operations of the Sri Lankan Security Forces against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in April-May,2009. It alleges that the culmination phase, which physically wiped out the leadership of the LTTE for which no right-thinking person opposed to terrorism need shed tears, was also marked by executions, shelling of civilians and other atrocities carried out by the Security Forces. The documentary is available at http://bit.ly/mDpkez .
3. In the culmination phase, the Sri Lankan Security Forces did face a cruel dilemma because the ruthless leadership of the LTTE headed by Prabakaran was making a last-ditch effort to save itself from capture or killing by taking shelter in the midst of civilian refugees. It was not an opportunistic tactic in the face of the mounting pressure from the Security Forces. It was a consciously-planned tactic of Prabakaran to force the international community to intervene by creating a situation in which hundreds of civilians were used as cannon fodder in a futile attempt to save the LTTE leadership from extinction.
4.After the operation ended with the elimination of the LTTE leadership and the collapse of the LTTE as a terrorist organisation, there was a spate of allegations from well-reputed international human rights organisations, humanitarian workers, representatives of Western Governments and UN officials ---many of whom often levelled the allegations independently of each other and not in a concerted campaign--- that the Sri Lankan Security Forces could not escape their share of the blame for the large-scale violations of the human rights of the Sri Lankan Tamil civilians living in the operational area under the control of the LTTE.
5.Two kinds of violations were alleged. Firstly, that the leaders of the LTTE, including Prabakaran, wanted to surrender but were not given an opportunity to do so, but instead were physically eliminated. Secondly, that the Security Forces consciously used disproportionate force with light, medium and heavy weapons knowing fully well that such use could kill many civilians. Protecting the civilians caught was not on the agenda of either the LTTE or the Security Forces.
6. These allegations have been accompanied by demands for an independent international enquiry under the auspices of the UN to determine the truth and for action against the officers of the Security Forces and others found responsible for the violations --- in a manner satisfactory to the international community. It has been alleged that some of the atrocities amounted to crimes against humanity and war crimes.
7. The Sri Lankan Government headed by President Mahinda Rajapaksa has strongly and consistently denied these allegations. While it admits the possibility that there might have been some violations to determine which it has been holding its own enquiry, it has indignantly refuted the allegations that the violations were of such a serious nature as to call for international intervention and action.
8. Unfortunately, human rights violations are rarely avoided in counter-insurgency situations however much the Security Forces try to do so. Terrorist and insurgent organisations train themselves well in creating situations where human rights violations do occur in order to seek the intervention of the international community.
9. What distinguishes a civilised and responsible Government sensitive to the rights of its civilians from a Government which is totally insensitive to the human rights dimensions of counter-insurgency operations is that the former takes cognisance of the allegations instead of summarily rejecting them, enquires into them and takes the follow-up action warranted by the results of the enquiry.
10. That is what the Sri Lankan Government has promised to do. Should it be trusted to do justice to the Sri Lankan Tamils or should it be distrusted and pressured to let the enquiry and follow-up action be handled by an international mechanism set up under the auspices of the UN?
11. While there were obviously serious violations, evidence available till now do not bear out the stand of those who accuse the Rajapaksa Government of violations amounting to crimes against humanity or war crimes.
12. In our anxiety and sympathy for the legitimate rights of the Sri Lankan Tamils, we should not exaggerate or over-state our arguments in support of or against an international enquiry. The Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora which has been active in demanding an international enquiry has stepped up its pressure on Governments and non-Governmental personalities, including reputed journalists of India and other countries, to take cognisance of the forensic evidence collected by the documentary and support the demand for an international enquiry.
13. The Government of India should pay serious attention to the alleged evidence produced by the documentary and have it examined by our legal and humanitarian experts in order to see whether the documentary needs to be taken up officially and at the bilateral level with the Government of Sri Lanka and, if so, in what manner and for what objective.
14. The objective should be to ensure that justice is done to the relatives of the victims and that the honour of the victims is respected even if it be posthumously. It should not be to use the documentary as a stick to beat the SL Government with.
15. The Rajapaksa Government will facilitate a more meaningful Indian role in calming the feelings of indignation and concern of the Sri Lankan Tamils if it handles the documentary with the seriousness it deserves. Inaction is not an option for the Government of India. But action should be within acceptable limits of our bilateral relations with Sri Lanka and should not be overdone.(20-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, June 16, 2011
AL-ZAWAHIRI: ADVOCATE OF GLOBAL JIHADI INTIFADA
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 728
B. Raman
Six weeks after the death of Osama bin Laden on May 2,2011, Al Qaeda’s General Command has announced the appointment of Ayman al-Zawahiri, of Egypt, who was OBL’s No.2, as the new head of Al Qaeda. A statement announcing his appointment was posted on a website associated with Al Qaeda. It was attributed to the General Command. It said: "Sheikh Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, may God guide him, assumed responsibility as the group's Amir [leader]". It vowed that under Zawahiri, Al Qaeda would pursue jihad against the US and Israel "until all invading armies leave the land of Islam".
2. Earlier, on May 18,2011, quoting Pakistani security sources, Al Jazeera had reported that Al Qaeda had appointed Saif al-Adel, formerly of the Egyptian Army, as its interim leader and Mohammed Mustafa al-Yemeni as its operations chief .Al Jazeera had said: "According to the sources, the decision (on the appointments) was made at a meeting on May 10 on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border."
3.According to Al Jazeera, Adnan al-Khairi al-Masri was named as Al Qaeda's general command head, Mohammed Nasser al-Wahshi as its Africa chief, Mohammed Adam Khan, an Afghan, as in charge in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Fahd al-Iraqi as in charge of the Afghan-Pakistani border region.
4. Since the earlier report had emanated from Pakistani sources there was some doubt about its reliability. The latest statement regarding the appointment of Zawahiri as the head was posted in one of the web sites used by Al Qaeda for such announcements and hence appears to be more authentic.
5. Saif al-Adel was said to have been a critic of OBL’s arbitrary ways of taking important operational decisions and had reportedly questioned the wisdom of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland since those strikes, according to him, enabled the US to mobilise the international community against Al Qaeda.
6. The latest statement of Al Qaeda regarding the appointment of Zawahiri is silent on the earlier appointments as announced by Al Jazeera on the basis of information provided by Pakistani sources.
7.Zawahiri has been advocating since February 12,2007, a global jihadi Intifada, which would cover all lands in the world, which rightfully belong to Islam.
8.However, he specifies certain areas, which he thinks should receive special attention first. Of these, he gives the topmost priority to Afghanistan and Iraq. He says the future of Islam and of the global Intifada itself will be decided in those countries. If they can defeat the Americans there, the jihadis' victory in the rest of the lands will be assured. After mentioning these two countries, he mentions certain other areas specifically. He believes that the victory of the jihadis in these areas would also be crucial for the ultimate victory of Islam. These areas are Palestine, including Gaza, the Lebanon, Somalia, Algeria and Chechnya in Russia. He describes Somalia as the Southern garrison of Islam and Algeria as its Western garrison.
9. His past statements had included Jammu and Kashmir as among historic Muslim lands under occupation by non-Muslims and hence to be “liberated”. He had drawn the attention of the Pakistani people to the danger of Gen.Pervez Musharraf colluding with the Hindus if he was not removed from power. However, he had not spoken of the Muslims living in other parts of India outside J&K.
10.By Jihadi Intifada, he means a kind of struggle in which the role of motivated individual Muslims will become more important than that of organisations so that the weakening or collapse of an organisation does not result in a collapse of the Intifada. He wants the Intifada to acquire a momentum of its own as a result of the sacrifices of individual Muslims.
11.He said in his message of January 22, 2007: "Every Muslim today is directly responsible for defending Islam, Islam’s homeland and the Islamic Ummah and he is responsible for the efforts to liberate the Muslim captives foremost of whom is Sheikh Omar Abdl al-Rahman from the prisons of the crusaders and their helpers and we reaffirm to the families of the Guantanamo captives who are demonstrating these days in Cuba, that we –with God’s permission-- have not and will not forget our captives and that their liberation is a debt on our necks and that the Americans must expect to pay the price for everything they have done to them."
12. In his past statements, he downplayed the importance of a central command and control in keeping the Intifada going. The motivation of individual Muslims was more important than any centralised command and control.
13.He also projects the Intifada as a mix of military and non-military struggles. He says in his message of December 20, 2006: "We must bear arms. And if we are unable to bear them, then we must support those who carry them. This support comes in many forms and guises, so we must exploit all Da’wah, student and union activities to back the Jihadi resistance....... The Muslim Ummah must exploit all methods of popular protest, like demonstrations, sit-ins, strikes, refusing to pay taxes, preventing cooperation with the security forces, refusing to provide the Crusaders with fuel, hitting traders who supply the Crusader forces, boycotting Crusader and Jewish products, and other ways of popular protest."
14. The importance of the role of individual Muslims has been re-emphasised in a video circulated by the propaganda wing of Al Qaeda on June 8,2011.This video is a collation of messages issued by Zawahiri, Adam Gadahn, the American convert to Islam, who heads the propaganda wing, Atiya Abdel Rahman (Libyan operations chief of Al Qaeda, who was allegedly a key aide to bin Laden when he was hiding in Abbottabad)and Abu Laith Al-Libi.
15. In his message, Adam Gadahn , who spoke in English, said: “Muslims living in the US are perfectly placed to play an important and decisive part in the jihad against the Zionists and Crusaders.” He told them how easy it was to buy automatic assault weapons at gun shows without any identification.
16. Hinting at a policy of targeted individual assassinations of important Governmental and non-Governmental leaders, he said: “It’s important that we weaken our cowardly enemies’ will to fight by targeting influential public figures in Crusader and Zionist government, industry and media.”
17.Zawahiri’s past statements highlighted his disenchantment with the PLO, Al Fatah and the Hamas. He asked the Palestinians to take over the responsibility for the Intifada in their own hands. He said in his message of February 12, 2007: "The Muslims in the area should work for the establishment of an Islamic state in Palestine, instead of supporting an individual faction or political party. I'm not asking them to join HAMAS, Islamic Jihad or al-Qaida, but rather, I'm asking them to return to Islam, in order to fight for the establishment of an Islamic state over all of Palestine, and not for the establishment of a secularist state which will please America on crumbs of Palestine."
18.He wanted the Palestinians as well as the Muslims of the Lebanon to categorically reject all UN Resolutions and international agreements relating to these lands of Islam. He told the Lebanese people: "I ask my brothers in Islam and Jihad in Lebanon not to give in to Resolution 1701, nor accept the pushing back of the Lebanese border 30 kilometers, nor accept the presence of the international Crusader forces in the south as a barrier between them and Occupied Palestine, even if that resolution is agreed to by all official political forces licensed by the Lebanese government, on the basis of international balances and foreign connections."
19.In a message of December 20, 2006, Zawahiri said: "Brothers in Islam and Jihad in Somalia: know that you are on the southern garrison of Islam, so don’t allow Islam to be attacked from your flank, and know that we are with you, and that the entire Muslim Ummah is with you. So don’t lose heart, or fall into despair, for you must dominate if you are true in faith. And know that you are fending off the same Crusade which is fighting your brothers in Islam in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon. So be resolute, be patient and be optimistic, for by Allah beside whom there is no other god, even if your enemies possess thousands of tons of iron and explosives, in their chests lie the hearts of mice. So be severe against them like Muhammad was. "
20.He also said: "I also send my greetings and those of my brothers to our steadfast brothers in Algeria in the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, the guards of Islam’s western garrison. I ask Allah to accept their sacrifices, perseverance and resoluteness, to send down on them His victory which He promised His believing worshippers, and to conquer with them His enemies, the Crusaders and secularist sons of France. And I give them the good news that the winds of victory are blowing, that the Ummah has risen up, and that the era of humiliation has come to a close. So stand firm."
21.His increased interest in Algeria could be attributed to his desire partly to bring about the rule of the Sharia in Algeria and partly to use Algeria as a rear base for spreading the Intifada to France, Spain and Portugal. Al Qaeda and its International Islamic Front have been using the Afghanistan-Pakistan region as a rear base for their Jihadi Intifada against the US and the UK. It has not been possible to use it as a rear base against France, Spain and Portugal. They are hoping that an active Jihadi Intifada in Algeria will help in overcoming this deficiency.
22. In a reference to Chechnya, Zawahiri said in his message of December 20, 2006: "And I send my greetings and those of my brothers to the Chechen people, in Jihad against the Russian Crusade for 400 years. O sons of Imam Shamil, know that you are not alone in confronting the Crusade against Islam. You are at the throats of the Russians and their helpers, and we are at the throats of the Americans and Jews and their followers. So stand firm."
23. Under the ideological guidance of Zawahiri, Al Qaeda had also been calling upon the Muslims of the world to follow the command of Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Taliban. It was part of his efforts to remove the impression that Wahabi Arabs were in the forefront of the Jihadi Intifada. He has been trying to emphasis that all Muslims are in the Intifada irrespective of their ethnic origin or nationality. He said in a message of 2007: "Nationalists split the Muslim Ummah into Arabs, Persians, Kurds, Turks, Afghans and others, then split the Arabs into Egyptians, Moroccans, Syrians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Saudis, Yemenis and others and thus provided the best possible service to the crusade invading the Islamic world and instead of the Ummah uniting to confront the colonialist campaign, as it previously united to face the crusade and Mongol invasions, the Ummah fell apart and fought itself." There was an attempt by Zawahiri to give Mulla Omar an iconic status as a non-Arab commander of the Jihadi Intifada. (16-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B. Raman
Six weeks after the death of Osama bin Laden on May 2,2011, Al Qaeda’s General Command has announced the appointment of Ayman al-Zawahiri, of Egypt, who was OBL’s No.2, as the new head of Al Qaeda. A statement announcing his appointment was posted on a website associated with Al Qaeda. It was attributed to the General Command. It said: "Sheikh Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, may God guide him, assumed responsibility as the group's Amir [leader]". It vowed that under Zawahiri, Al Qaeda would pursue jihad against the US and Israel "until all invading armies leave the land of Islam".
2. Earlier, on May 18,2011, quoting Pakistani security sources, Al Jazeera had reported that Al Qaeda had appointed Saif al-Adel, formerly of the Egyptian Army, as its interim leader and Mohammed Mustafa al-Yemeni as its operations chief .Al Jazeera had said: "According to the sources, the decision (on the appointments) was made at a meeting on May 10 on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border."
3.According to Al Jazeera, Adnan al-Khairi al-Masri was named as Al Qaeda's general command head, Mohammed Nasser al-Wahshi as its Africa chief, Mohammed Adam Khan, an Afghan, as in charge in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Fahd al-Iraqi as in charge of the Afghan-Pakistani border region.
4. Since the earlier report had emanated from Pakistani sources there was some doubt about its reliability. The latest statement regarding the appointment of Zawahiri as the head was posted in one of the web sites used by Al Qaeda for such announcements and hence appears to be more authentic.
5. Saif al-Adel was said to have been a critic of OBL’s arbitrary ways of taking important operational decisions and had reportedly questioned the wisdom of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland since those strikes, according to him, enabled the US to mobilise the international community against Al Qaeda.
6. The latest statement of Al Qaeda regarding the appointment of Zawahiri is silent on the earlier appointments as announced by Al Jazeera on the basis of information provided by Pakistani sources.
7.Zawahiri has been advocating since February 12,2007, a global jihadi Intifada, which would cover all lands in the world, which rightfully belong to Islam.
8.However, he specifies certain areas, which he thinks should receive special attention first. Of these, he gives the topmost priority to Afghanistan and Iraq. He says the future of Islam and of the global Intifada itself will be decided in those countries. If they can defeat the Americans there, the jihadis' victory in the rest of the lands will be assured. After mentioning these two countries, he mentions certain other areas specifically. He believes that the victory of the jihadis in these areas would also be crucial for the ultimate victory of Islam. These areas are Palestine, including Gaza, the Lebanon, Somalia, Algeria and Chechnya in Russia. He describes Somalia as the Southern garrison of Islam and Algeria as its Western garrison.
9. His past statements had included Jammu and Kashmir as among historic Muslim lands under occupation by non-Muslims and hence to be “liberated”. He had drawn the attention of the Pakistani people to the danger of Gen.Pervez Musharraf colluding with the Hindus if he was not removed from power. However, he had not spoken of the Muslims living in other parts of India outside J&K.
10.By Jihadi Intifada, he means a kind of struggle in which the role of motivated individual Muslims will become more important than that of organisations so that the weakening or collapse of an organisation does not result in a collapse of the Intifada. He wants the Intifada to acquire a momentum of its own as a result of the sacrifices of individual Muslims.
11.He said in his message of January 22, 2007: "Every Muslim today is directly responsible for defending Islam, Islam’s homeland and the Islamic Ummah and he is responsible for the efforts to liberate the Muslim captives foremost of whom is Sheikh Omar Abdl al-Rahman from the prisons of the crusaders and their helpers and we reaffirm to the families of the Guantanamo captives who are demonstrating these days in Cuba, that we –with God’s permission-- have not and will not forget our captives and that their liberation is a debt on our necks and that the Americans must expect to pay the price for everything they have done to them."
12. In his past statements, he downplayed the importance of a central command and control in keeping the Intifada going. The motivation of individual Muslims was more important than any centralised command and control.
13.He also projects the Intifada as a mix of military and non-military struggles. He says in his message of December 20, 2006: "We must bear arms. And if we are unable to bear them, then we must support those who carry them. This support comes in many forms and guises, so we must exploit all Da’wah, student and union activities to back the Jihadi resistance....... The Muslim Ummah must exploit all methods of popular protest, like demonstrations, sit-ins, strikes, refusing to pay taxes, preventing cooperation with the security forces, refusing to provide the Crusaders with fuel, hitting traders who supply the Crusader forces, boycotting Crusader and Jewish products, and other ways of popular protest."
14. The importance of the role of individual Muslims has been re-emphasised in a video circulated by the propaganda wing of Al Qaeda on June 8,2011.This video is a collation of messages issued by Zawahiri, Adam Gadahn, the American convert to Islam, who heads the propaganda wing, Atiya Abdel Rahman (Libyan operations chief of Al Qaeda, who was allegedly a key aide to bin Laden when he was hiding in Abbottabad)and Abu Laith Al-Libi.
15. In his message, Adam Gadahn , who spoke in English, said: “Muslims living in the US are perfectly placed to play an important and decisive part in the jihad against the Zionists and Crusaders.” He told them how easy it was to buy automatic assault weapons at gun shows without any identification.
16. Hinting at a policy of targeted individual assassinations of important Governmental and non-Governmental leaders, he said: “It’s important that we weaken our cowardly enemies’ will to fight by targeting influential public figures in Crusader and Zionist government, industry and media.”
17.Zawahiri’s past statements highlighted his disenchantment with the PLO, Al Fatah and the Hamas. He asked the Palestinians to take over the responsibility for the Intifada in their own hands. He said in his message of February 12, 2007: "The Muslims in the area should work for the establishment of an Islamic state in Palestine, instead of supporting an individual faction or political party. I'm not asking them to join HAMAS, Islamic Jihad or al-Qaida, but rather, I'm asking them to return to Islam, in order to fight for the establishment of an Islamic state over all of Palestine, and not for the establishment of a secularist state which will please America on crumbs of Palestine."
18.He wanted the Palestinians as well as the Muslims of the Lebanon to categorically reject all UN Resolutions and international agreements relating to these lands of Islam. He told the Lebanese people: "I ask my brothers in Islam and Jihad in Lebanon not to give in to Resolution 1701, nor accept the pushing back of the Lebanese border 30 kilometers, nor accept the presence of the international Crusader forces in the south as a barrier between them and Occupied Palestine, even if that resolution is agreed to by all official political forces licensed by the Lebanese government, on the basis of international balances and foreign connections."
19.In a message of December 20, 2006, Zawahiri said: "Brothers in Islam and Jihad in Somalia: know that you are on the southern garrison of Islam, so don’t allow Islam to be attacked from your flank, and know that we are with you, and that the entire Muslim Ummah is with you. So don’t lose heart, or fall into despair, for you must dominate if you are true in faith. And know that you are fending off the same Crusade which is fighting your brothers in Islam in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon. So be resolute, be patient and be optimistic, for by Allah beside whom there is no other god, even if your enemies possess thousands of tons of iron and explosives, in their chests lie the hearts of mice. So be severe against them like Muhammad was. "
20.He also said: "I also send my greetings and those of my brothers to our steadfast brothers in Algeria in the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, the guards of Islam’s western garrison. I ask Allah to accept their sacrifices, perseverance and resoluteness, to send down on them His victory which He promised His believing worshippers, and to conquer with them His enemies, the Crusaders and secularist sons of France. And I give them the good news that the winds of victory are blowing, that the Ummah has risen up, and that the era of humiliation has come to a close. So stand firm."
21.His increased interest in Algeria could be attributed to his desire partly to bring about the rule of the Sharia in Algeria and partly to use Algeria as a rear base for spreading the Intifada to France, Spain and Portugal. Al Qaeda and its International Islamic Front have been using the Afghanistan-Pakistan region as a rear base for their Jihadi Intifada against the US and the UK. It has not been possible to use it as a rear base against France, Spain and Portugal. They are hoping that an active Jihadi Intifada in Algeria will help in overcoming this deficiency.
22. In a reference to Chechnya, Zawahiri said in his message of December 20, 2006: "And I send my greetings and those of my brothers to the Chechen people, in Jihad against the Russian Crusade for 400 years. O sons of Imam Shamil, know that you are not alone in confronting the Crusade against Islam. You are at the throats of the Russians and their helpers, and we are at the throats of the Americans and Jews and their followers. So stand firm."
23. Under the ideological guidance of Zawahiri, Al Qaeda had also been calling upon the Muslims of the world to follow the command of Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Taliban. It was part of his efforts to remove the impression that Wahabi Arabs were in the forefront of the Jihadi Intifada. He has been trying to emphasis that all Muslims are in the Intifada irrespective of their ethnic origin or nationality. He said in a message of 2007: "Nationalists split the Muslim Ummah into Arabs, Persians, Kurds, Turks, Afghans and others, then split the Arabs into Egyptians, Moroccans, Syrians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Saudis, Yemenis and others and thus provided the best possible service to the crusade invading the Islamic world and instead of the Ummah uniting to confront the colonialist campaign, as it previously united to face the crusade and Mongol invasions, the Ummah fell apart and fought itself." There was an attempt by Zawahiri to give Mulla Omar an iconic status as a non-Arab commander of the Jihadi Intifada. (16-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
PAKISTAN: US MAY FRET & FUME BUT ITS OPTIONS CRUELLY LIMITED
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO 727
B.RAMAN
The “New York Times” (June 15,2011) has claimed that the Pakistani authorities have detained a Major and four other Pakistani nationals during the course of their in-house enquiry into the security lapses at Abbottabad on May 2 which enabled the US naval commandos to carry out a clandestine raid into the house of Osama bin Laden near the Army Training Centre and kill him without the Pakistani security forces being able to detect and counter the raid by the US naval commandos.
2. In the wake of the detection of the house of OBL, who had been living there undetected for over five years, two important issues needed to be enquired into:
(a).Whether there was any Governmental or non-Governmental complicity that enabled OBL to live in that house undetected and, if so, at what level and who were involved?
(b).What were the security lapses in the garrison town of Abbottabad that were taken advantage of by the US to successfully carry out the raid without being detected and countered by the Pakistan Army and Air Force?
3. The focus of the Pakistani enquiries so far has been on the second issue. No action has been taken on the first issue. It is during the course of the enquiry into the second issue that the Pakistanis are reported to have detained five of their nationals, including a Major, on a charge of assisting the US. The circumstances of their detention would show that they were probably assisting the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) without the knowledge of their superiors. The Major is reported to have supplied to the CIA lists of the number plates of the vehicles going into OBL’s Abbottabad house and coming out later. One does not have details of what assistance the other detained persons were giving to the CIA. There is no evidence to show that the detained persons were aware that the CIA required these details because it suspected that OBL was living in that house.
4. The supposition is still strong in the US governmental circles that OBL could not have lived undetected for over five years at his Abbottabad house without the benefit of local support , but no evidence in support of this supposition has been found by the Americans during the interrogation of the three wives of OBL who are in Pakistani custody or during the course of their examination of the documents and computer material seized by them at OBL’s house. The Pakistanis have not yet started serious enquiries into this matter.
5. The enquiries by the Pakistanis are in the direction of identifying and detaining those who might have helped the CIA wittingly or unwittingly as a warning to others not to extend any informal assistance to the CIA and other US agencies without official clearance. Leon Panetta, the outgoing Director of the CIA, was reported to have taken up the matter with the Pakistani leaders during his visit to Islamabad last week.
6. The main purpose of his visit was to soften the continuing feeling of hurt in the Pakistani GHQ over the unilateral Abbottabad raid by the US naval commandos and to reverse the downgrading of the co-operation with the US by the Pakistani agencies. This downgrading has lowered and affected the US intelligence presence in Pakistan and practically suspended the training of the Pakistani para-military units operating in the tribal belt against Al Qaeda and other terrorist affiliates by the US Special Forces. It has also strengthened the Pakistani reluctance to launch operations against the terrorists operating in North Waziristan.
7. There are only two areas where the co-operation has not been significantly affected---- the informal acceptance by the Pakistani leadership---political and military---of the Drone strikes in the two Waziristans and the Pakistani facilitation of the flow of logistic supplies to the NAO forces in Afghanistan from Karachi. Though Pakistani political and military leaders continue to criticise the Drone strikes as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty, they have not mounted pressure for stopping them.
8. A new issue has cropped up in the form of the Pakistani demand for the urgent supply of two Orion maritime surveillance aircraft to the Pakistani Navy in replacement of the two that were destroyed by a group of terrorists, supposedly from the 313 Brigade, who successfully raided the base of the Pakistani Naval Air Arm at PNS Mehran in Karachi last month. The Pakistani Navy plays a role in the multi-national task force deployed in the Gulf to prevent any clandestine assistance by sea to Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Pakistan is using this argument for urging urgent replacement of the destroyed Orion planes.
9. The logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan is an important card in the hands of Pakistan for being used against the US if its pressure on Pakistan reaches unacceptable levels. Pakistan had used this card last year and could use it again. Even though Russia and the Central Asian Republics (CACs) had agreed to some of the supplies going via their territory, 75 per cent of the supplies still go via Pakistan.
10. Supply by air from the Gulf would be expensive. In the meanwhile, Pakistan’s leverage vis-à-vis the US has increased as a result of steadfast Chinese support to its counter-terrorism policies and the improvement in Pakistan’s relations with Russia which could pave the way for Pakistan becoming a full member of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO).
11. Because of the vital dependence on Pakistan for the movement of logistic supplies, the US finds that while it may fret and fume at Pakistani duplicity, there is little that it can do unless its punitive action against Pakistan has the support of China and Russia. This is unlikely.
12. The only option that could be effective against Pakistan is to declare it as a State-sponsor of International Terrorism. This would have the immediate effect of suspending US economic and military assistance to Pakistan. At the same time, it could bring moral, if not diplomatic, pressure, on other countries, including China and Russia, to stop assisting Pakistan till it effectively co-operates with the international community in counter-terrorism.
13. This option could work only under two conditions. Firstly, the US is able to reduce its dependence on Pakistan for logistic supplies. Secondly, China and Russia co-operate with the US, at least partially if not fully. It is difficult to visualise the materialisation of these two scenarios.
14. Under these circumstances, the only option left for the US at present is to keep exercising more pressure on Pakistan bilaterally in the hope that the political and military leadership of Pakistan would see reason and start co-operating.
15. The US is paying a heavy price for its past sins of mollycoddling Pakistan despite its sponsorship of terrorism. It now realises the importance of stopping the mollycoddling, but it is not in a position to do so.
16. The US must undertake a crash programme for reducing its dependence on Pakistan for logistic supplies--- either by using other routes via the CARs or through air-lifts from the Gulf even if they turn out to be expensive. If it can do that, it will have more options in its basket to make Pakistan act. ( 15-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The “New York Times” (June 15,2011) has claimed that the Pakistani authorities have detained a Major and four other Pakistani nationals during the course of their in-house enquiry into the security lapses at Abbottabad on May 2 which enabled the US naval commandos to carry out a clandestine raid into the house of Osama bin Laden near the Army Training Centre and kill him without the Pakistani security forces being able to detect and counter the raid by the US naval commandos.
2. In the wake of the detection of the house of OBL, who had been living there undetected for over five years, two important issues needed to be enquired into:
(a).Whether there was any Governmental or non-Governmental complicity that enabled OBL to live in that house undetected and, if so, at what level and who were involved?
(b).What were the security lapses in the garrison town of Abbottabad that were taken advantage of by the US to successfully carry out the raid without being detected and countered by the Pakistan Army and Air Force?
3. The focus of the Pakistani enquiries so far has been on the second issue. No action has been taken on the first issue. It is during the course of the enquiry into the second issue that the Pakistanis are reported to have detained five of their nationals, including a Major, on a charge of assisting the US. The circumstances of their detention would show that they were probably assisting the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) without the knowledge of their superiors. The Major is reported to have supplied to the CIA lists of the number plates of the vehicles going into OBL’s Abbottabad house and coming out later. One does not have details of what assistance the other detained persons were giving to the CIA. There is no evidence to show that the detained persons were aware that the CIA required these details because it suspected that OBL was living in that house.
4. The supposition is still strong in the US governmental circles that OBL could not have lived undetected for over five years at his Abbottabad house without the benefit of local support , but no evidence in support of this supposition has been found by the Americans during the interrogation of the three wives of OBL who are in Pakistani custody or during the course of their examination of the documents and computer material seized by them at OBL’s house. The Pakistanis have not yet started serious enquiries into this matter.
5. The enquiries by the Pakistanis are in the direction of identifying and detaining those who might have helped the CIA wittingly or unwittingly as a warning to others not to extend any informal assistance to the CIA and other US agencies without official clearance. Leon Panetta, the outgoing Director of the CIA, was reported to have taken up the matter with the Pakistani leaders during his visit to Islamabad last week.
6. The main purpose of his visit was to soften the continuing feeling of hurt in the Pakistani GHQ over the unilateral Abbottabad raid by the US naval commandos and to reverse the downgrading of the co-operation with the US by the Pakistani agencies. This downgrading has lowered and affected the US intelligence presence in Pakistan and practically suspended the training of the Pakistani para-military units operating in the tribal belt against Al Qaeda and other terrorist affiliates by the US Special Forces. It has also strengthened the Pakistani reluctance to launch operations against the terrorists operating in North Waziristan.
7. There are only two areas where the co-operation has not been significantly affected---- the informal acceptance by the Pakistani leadership---political and military---of the Drone strikes in the two Waziristans and the Pakistani facilitation of the flow of logistic supplies to the NAO forces in Afghanistan from Karachi. Though Pakistani political and military leaders continue to criticise the Drone strikes as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty, they have not mounted pressure for stopping them.
8. A new issue has cropped up in the form of the Pakistani demand for the urgent supply of two Orion maritime surveillance aircraft to the Pakistani Navy in replacement of the two that were destroyed by a group of terrorists, supposedly from the 313 Brigade, who successfully raided the base of the Pakistani Naval Air Arm at PNS Mehran in Karachi last month. The Pakistani Navy plays a role in the multi-national task force deployed in the Gulf to prevent any clandestine assistance by sea to Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Pakistan is using this argument for urging urgent replacement of the destroyed Orion planes.
9. The logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan is an important card in the hands of Pakistan for being used against the US if its pressure on Pakistan reaches unacceptable levels. Pakistan had used this card last year and could use it again. Even though Russia and the Central Asian Republics (CACs) had agreed to some of the supplies going via their territory, 75 per cent of the supplies still go via Pakistan.
10. Supply by air from the Gulf would be expensive. In the meanwhile, Pakistan’s leverage vis-à-vis the US has increased as a result of steadfast Chinese support to its counter-terrorism policies and the improvement in Pakistan’s relations with Russia which could pave the way for Pakistan becoming a full member of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO).
11. Because of the vital dependence on Pakistan for the movement of logistic supplies, the US finds that while it may fret and fume at Pakistani duplicity, there is little that it can do unless its punitive action against Pakistan has the support of China and Russia. This is unlikely.
12. The only option that could be effective against Pakistan is to declare it as a State-sponsor of International Terrorism. This would have the immediate effect of suspending US economic and military assistance to Pakistan. At the same time, it could bring moral, if not diplomatic, pressure, on other countries, including China and Russia, to stop assisting Pakistan till it effectively co-operates with the international community in counter-terrorism.
13. This option could work only under two conditions. Firstly, the US is able to reduce its dependence on Pakistan for logistic supplies. Secondly, China and Russia co-operate with the US, at least partially if not fully. It is difficult to visualise the materialisation of these two scenarios.
14. Under these circumstances, the only option left for the US at present is to keep exercising more pressure on Pakistan bilaterally in the hope that the political and military leadership of Pakistan would see reason and start co-operating.
15. The US is paying a heavy price for its past sins of mollycoddling Pakistan despite its sponsorship of terrorism. It now realises the importance of stopping the mollycoddling, but it is not in a position to do so.
16. The US must undertake a crash programme for reducing its dependence on Pakistan for logistic supplies--- either by using other routes via the CARs or through air-lifts from the Gulf even if they turn out to be expensive. If it can do that, it will have more options in its basket to make Pakistan act. ( 15-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
CHINESE CONCERN OVER INTERNAL SITUATION
B.RAMAN
The authorities of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, who are responsible for internal intelligence, internal security and law and order, seem to be increasingly concerned over the tendencies of sections of the population to defy the measures taken by the authorities to enforce law and order.
2. Instances of such defiance have come since the beginning of this month from the Tibetan areas of the Sichuan Province and from Guangdong on the sea coast from where the Chinese economic miracle started in the early 1980s and then spread to other parts of China.
3. Buddhist monks in the Sichuan province continue to protest in public over the illegal detention of about 300 monks of the Kirti monastery in a military detention centre to subject them to what the Chinese call “legal education” following their demonstration of their solidarity with a 16-year-old monk who committed self-immolation in March to protest against the continued Chinese rule of the Tibetan areas. The protest has since spread to other Tibetan areas.
4. Tibetan monks and nuns in Kardze, also in the Sichuan province, have stepped up protests against Chinese rule despite being beaten up and detained in military camps by the authorities.
5.The Chinese authorities are going ahead with their plans for a major celebration in July in the Tibetan areas to mark the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and the 60th anniversary of the occupation of the Tibetan areas by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
6. In view of the continuing protest movement of the monks, the Chinese authorities apprehend that attempts could be made to disrupt the special events planned to be held in July to mark the two anniversaries. They have, therefore, stopped issuing visas to foreign nationals for visiting Tibet till the end of July. However, there will be no restrictions on the visit of Chinese nationals to Tibet for domestic tourism.
7. The unrest in the Guangdong province has been over what is alleged as the unfair treatment meted out to migrant Chinese workers from other parts of China, who have been allowed to work in the manufacturing industries of the province.
8. Through strict control of the Internet, the Chinese authorities have sought to prevent details of the protest movement of the monks from reaching the outside world. However, they have not been able to prevent the details of the unrest of the migrant workers of the Guangdong Province from spreading to other parts of China and the outside world.
9. Protesting migrant workers are managing to send out messages through Chinese blogging sites, but the use of the blogging sites to spread messages of the protest has not been as extensive as during the Jasmine Revolution earlier this year in Tunisia and Egypt.
10. One message thus sent out through a Chinese blogging site reads as follows: “As far as the police and army are concerned, they may crush the current rioting, but the fundamental problems will not have been addressed. As China’s income gap has grown, many people are forced to live in remote cities year-round to make ends meet as migrant workers. But they suffer discrimination and maltreatment from everyone around them: their bosses, landlords, and even local residents. They are treated as second or third class citizens. The ‘iron fist’ policy is not the way to deal with them. You can quell the riot in Xintang, but it will just happen somewhere else.”
11. Xintang has been the epi-centre of the protest movement of the migrant workers. Security troops of the Ministry of Public Security, backed by armored vehicles, fired tear gas shells at thousands of rioters on the streets of Xintang township in the Zengcheng prefecture on June 23.Scenes of the firing of tear-gas shells have appeared on many blogging sites. Xintang is about 40 kilometers east of the provincial capital of Guangzhou.The protest movement began spontaneously on June 10.
12.In an incident reminiscent of what happened in Tunisia, the protest movement was triggered off by a dispute between security guards and a migrant couple, including a pregnant woman, who had set up a stall at the entrance of a supermarket. When the security guards tried to confiscate their earnings on the ground that they were running the stall without prior permission, a tussle ensued and the security guards allegedly pushed the pregnant woman who fell on the ground. The security guards arrested the couple, but other migrant workers prevented them from taking the couple to the Police Station. The riots started and it has been continuing off and on since then despite the arrival of security reinforcements. The migrant workers are demanding the arrest and prosecution of the security guards who pushed the pregnant woman to the ground. (15-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The authorities of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, who are responsible for internal intelligence, internal security and law and order, seem to be increasingly concerned over the tendencies of sections of the population to defy the measures taken by the authorities to enforce law and order.
2. Instances of such defiance have come since the beginning of this month from the Tibetan areas of the Sichuan Province and from Guangdong on the sea coast from where the Chinese economic miracle started in the early 1980s and then spread to other parts of China.
3. Buddhist monks in the Sichuan province continue to protest in public over the illegal detention of about 300 monks of the Kirti monastery in a military detention centre to subject them to what the Chinese call “legal education” following their demonstration of their solidarity with a 16-year-old monk who committed self-immolation in March to protest against the continued Chinese rule of the Tibetan areas. The protest has since spread to other Tibetan areas.
4. Tibetan monks and nuns in Kardze, also in the Sichuan province, have stepped up protests against Chinese rule despite being beaten up and detained in military camps by the authorities.
5.The Chinese authorities are going ahead with their plans for a major celebration in July in the Tibetan areas to mark the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and the 60th anniversary of the occupation of the Tibetan areas by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
6. In view of the continuing protest movement of the monks, the Chinese authorities apprehend that attempts could be made to disrupt the special events planned to be held in July to mark the two anniversaries. They have, therefore, stopped issuing visas to foreign nationals for visiting Tibet till the end of July. However, there will be no restrictions on the visit of Chinese nationals to Tibet for domestic tourism.
7. The unrest in the Guangdong province has been over what is alleged as the unfair treatment meted out to migrant Chinese workers from other parts of China, who have been allowed to work in the manufacturing industries of the province.
8. Through strict control of the Internet, the Chinese authorities have sought to prevent details of the protest movement of the monks from reaching the outside world. However, they have not been able to prevent the details of the unrest of the migrant workers of the Guangdong Province from spreading to other parts of China and the outside world.
9. Protesting migrant workers are managing to send out messages through Chinese blogging sites, but the use of the blogging sites to spread messages of the protest has not been as extensive as during the Jasmine Revolution earlier this year in Tunisia and Egypt.
10. One message thus sent out through a Chinese blogging site reads as follows: “As far as the police and army are concerned, they may crush the current rioting, but the fundamental problems will not have been addressed. As China’s income gap has grown, many people are forced to live in remote cities year-round to make ends meet as migrant workers. But they suffer discrimination and maltreatment from everyone around them: their bosses, landlords, and even local residents. They are treated as second or third class citizens. The ‘iron fist’ policy is not the way to deal with them. You can quell the riot in Xintang, but it will just happen somewhere else.”
11. Xintang has been the epi-centre of the protest movement of the migrant workers. Security troops of the Ministry of Public Security, backed by armored vehicles, fired tear gas shells at thousands of rioters on the streets of Xintang township in the Zengcheng prefecture on June 23.Scenes of the firing of tear-gas shells have appeared on many blogging sites. Xintang is about 40 kilometers east of the provincial capital of Guangzhou.The protest movement began spontaneously on June 10.
12.In an incident reminiscent of what happened in Tunisia, the protest movement was triggered off by a dispute between security guards and a migrant couple, including a pregnant woman, who had set up a stall at the entrance of a supermarket. When the security guards tried to confiscate their earnings on the ground that they were running the stall without prior permission, a tussle ensued and the security guards allegedly pushed the pregnant woman who fell on the ground. The security guards arrested the couple, but other migrant workers prevented them from taking the couple to the Police Station. The riots started and it has been continuing off and on since then despite the arrival of security reinforcements. The migrant workers are demanding the arrest and prosecution of the security guards who pushed the pregnant woman to the ground. (15-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
A READER'S COMMENT FROM US WHICH MADE ME FEEL LIFE IS STILL WORTH LIVING
I have been reading your Blogs for the past three years and as an Indian I feel very happy for my country to have a person like you with such a great insight in to the startegic issues.I would say that many of your articles had helped us to analyse the strategic issue in a perspective that may not be possible for a ordinary citizen with very minimal worldly/startegic knowledge.Recently I happened to read few pages of your book Kaoboys of RAW and was very happy to know the achievements of you and the organization.Then I realized that we are not worthy enough to criticize you for any of your opinions or your preference.I have vocally cricized you in many forums for your support of certain journalist but realized that its your preference and every person is entitled to their friendship and opinion.I sincerely apologize for my actions earlier and others who still rant on your blogs without understanding your stature.They still havent realized that they are reading the opinion of a great man who was part of the wonderful turn of events in my nations history and whose analysis were opened only for handful people till some years ago.The general public always tend to succumb to their emotions and may not think before they speak.So i request you to consider the some of the the harsh comments of the general public as a collateral to discussions in public. As a fan,Indian I thank you for all your educative analysis and pray to god that he bestow you with a long life and a good health....Thanks so much.
Monday, June 13, 2011
IT IS TOO LATE
( A Song by Georges Moustaki, a French singer of Greek origin )
While I was asleep, while I was dreaming
The needles have turned, it's too late
My childhood is so far behind, it is already tomorrow
Time has passed away,it is already too late.
While I loved you, while I had you
The love is gone, it's too late
You were so pretty, I'm alone in my bed
Time has passed away, it is already too late
While I sing for my dear liberty
Others have already chained it,it's too late
Some fought, I never knew how to fight
Time has passed away, it is already too late.
Yet I still live, yet I want to love
I even want to sing on my guitar,it is too late
For what I was, what I became
Time has passed away, it is already too late
While I was singing, while I loved you
While I dreamed there was still time,
Time has passed away, it is already too late
http://www.wat.tv/video/il-est-trop-tard-georges-moustaki-3big5_2jwj1_.html
While I was asleep, while I was dreaming
The needles have turned, it's too late
My childhood is so far behind, it is already tomorrow
Time has passed away,it is already too late.
While I loved you, while I had you
The love is gone, it's too late
You were so pretty, I'm alone in my bed
Time has passed away, it is already too late
While I sing for my dear liberty
Others have already chained it,it's too late
Some fought, I never knew how to fight
Time has passed away, it is already too late.
Yet I still live, yet I want to love
I even want to sing on my guitar,it is too late
For what I was, what I became
Time has passed away, it is already too late
While I was singing, while I loved you
While I dreamed there was still time,
Time has passed away, it is already too late
http://www.wat.tv/video/il-est-trop-tard-georges-moustaki-3big5_2jwj1_.html
MURDER OF A CRIME JOURNALIST IN MUMBAI
B.RAMAN
I have been in receipt of some requests from my readers asking for my comments on the murder of Jyotendra Dey, senior investigative journalist of “Mid-Day”, the Mumbai daily, on June 11,2011. He was reported to have been shot dead near his residence in a Mumbai suburb.
2. Dey specialised in investigative reports on the criminal activities of various mafia groups operating in Mumbai. The case is still under investigation by the Mumbai Police and from the scanty details available through open source information, one could make only some tentative observations.
3. Since he was shot dead near his house, he evidently did not fall into a trap or ambush while doing field investigation. It was a case of planned, pre-meditated killing. Three motives are possible:
(a).He was killed in order to prevent his doing a fresh investigative report on a new piece of information received by him, but in an interview to a TV news channel, his Editor said that to his knowledge he was not doing any new investigation. According to the Editor, Dey would have kept him informed if he was doing a new story. If what the Editor says is correct, this possibility would not be high.
(b). He was killed to punish him for a story which he had already done. If so, he must have done this investigation in the recent and not distant past. A study of his reporting during the last six months should enable the police to prepare a short list of likely suspects who could then be questioned.
( c ). He was killed out of personal enmity either by a police officer about whom he was investigating or by someone else. A discussion by the police with his colleagues and relatives should enable them to prepare a similar short list of likely suspects.
4. The killing would appear to have been done by a hired killer who apparently killed him for mercenary reasons. If so, the mafia group or person who got him killed would have taken the precaution to maintain the deniability of its or his involvement.
5.Forensic evidence in the form of the bullets fired and the empties should be available. One does not know whether the police have been able to recover the weapon used. Search for finger-prints could provide an important initial piece of evidence.
6. The killer had taken the precaution of not killing Mr. Dey at his residence. That might have enabled the relatives to provide identifying particulars of the killer. Now the police would have only the details provided by the passers-by.
7. In the absence of sufficient forensic evidence and eye-witness accounts, the success of the investigation would depend on the careful preparation of the short-lists of suspects and their thorough interrogation.
8. To reduce the dangers of similar attacks on crime journalists in future, the police should periodically organise briefings on security for them as is done by the security division of the Ministry of External Affairs and the Intelligence Bureau for Indian diplomats posted abroad. This would strengthen their security-consciousness and enable them to take evasive measures. They should also be encouraged to report to the police any threats apprehended by them.
9. A short-list should be prepared of all the telephone calls received by Mr.Dey in his mobile telephone and the holders of numbers, who were not Mr.Dey’s relatives, friends or colleagues should be questioned. ( 13-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
I have been in receipt of some requests from my readers asking for my comments on the murder of Jyotendra Dey, senior investigative journalist of “Mid-Day”, the Mumbai daily, on June 11,2011. He was reported to have been shot dead near his residence in a Mumbai suburb.
2. Dey specialised in investigative reports on the criminal activities of various mafia groups operating in Mumbai. The case is still under investigation by the Mumbai Police and from the scanty details available through open source information, one could make only some tentative observations.
3. Since he was shot dead near his house, he evidently did not fall into a trap or ambush while doing field investigation. It was a case of planned, pre-meditated killing. Three motives are possible:
(a).He was killed in order to prevent his doing a fresh investigative report on a new piece of information received by him, but in an interview to a TV news channel, his Editor said that to his knowledge he was not doing any new investigation. According to the Editor, Dey would have kept him informed if he was doing a new story. If what the Editor says is correct, this possibility would not be high.
(b). He was killed to punish him for a story which he had already done. If so, he must have done this investigation in the recent and not distant past. A study of his reporting during the last six months should enable the police to prepare a short list of likely suspects who could then be questioned.
( c ). He was killed out of personal enmity either by a police officer about whom he was investigating or by someone else. A discussion by the police with his colleagues and relatives should enable them to prepare a similar short list of likely suspects.
4. The killing would appear to have been done by a hired killer who apparently killed him for mercenary reasons. If so, the mafia group or person who got him killed would have taken the precaution to maintain the deniability of its or his involvement.
5.Forensic evidence in the form of the bullets fired and the empties should be available. One does not know whether the police have been able to recover the weapon used. Search for finger-prints could provide an important initial piece of evidence.
6. The killer had taken the precaution of not killing Mr. Dey at his residence. That might have enabled the relatives to provide identifying particulars of the killer. Now the police would have only the details provided by the passers-by.
7. In the absence of sufficient forensic evidence and eye-witness accounts, the success of the investigation would depend on the careful preparation of the short-lists of suspects and their thorough interrogation.
8. To reduce the dangers of similar attacks on crime journalists in future, the police should periodically organise briefings on security for them as is done by the security division of the Ministry of External Affairs and the Intelligence Bureau for Indian diplomats posted abroad. This would strengthen their security-consciousness and enable them to take evasive measures. They should also be encouraged to report to the police any threats apprehended by them.
9. A short-list should be prepared of all the telephone calls received by Mr.Dey in his mobile telephone and the holders of numbers, who were not Mr.Dey’s relatives, friends or colleagues should be questioned. ( 13-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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