( I am reproducing below an article written by me in September 2003, which is available at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers8%5Cpaper791.html ---B.Raman
On the eve of the second anniversary of Al Qaeda's terrorist strikes in the USA on September 11, 2001, the US Government has declassified 32 documents relating to the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Twenty-six of these documents are of the US State Department and the remaining are of the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) of the Pentagon. This article analyses the contents of three DIA documents only.
2.The first document (15 pages), prepared in September,1999, is based on an analysis of all information received by the DIA till July 1,1999. It is titled "Defence Intelligence Assessment". The subject of the assessment is "Osama bin Laden/Al Qaeda Information Operations". Nearly 90 per cent of the document has been excised before its declassification. Hence, it does not contain anything of value. From a perusal of the unexcised portions, one could guess that the assessment must have been about Al Qaeda's information assets such as its modern communications capability, its use of the internet,. its capability for attacking the information networks of others etc and the defensive and offensive options available to the US. The defensive aspect relates to protecting the networks of the USA against Al Qaeda attacks and the offensive to neutralising or penetrating Al Qaeda's assets.
3. The second document, dated September 24, 2001, is titled "Veteran Afghan Traveller's Analysis of Al Qaeda and Taliban's Exploitable Weaknesses" and carries the following caution: "This is an information report. Not finally evaluated intelligence."
4. It would appear that this document is not the traveller's report, but an analysis prepared by an official of the DIA, either in the US Embassy in Islamabad or in the DIA headquarters in Washington DC, on the basis of the traveller's report. The language used in the portion declassified and released is that of a professional intelligence analyst and not that of an Afghan traveller.
5. The analysis carries the following summary: "Eventually, the Taliban and Al Qaeda will war with each other. The weakness of both is in the minds of the individuals that belong to the groups and in the power that is given to them by their names. Al Qaeda have not integrated with Afghans or the Taliban, leaving them susceptible to exploitation." By this, the analyst means exploitation by the US to play the Taliban/Afghans and Al Qaeda against each other. What wishful-thinking this has proved to be in retrospect!
6.The analysis carries the most damning account of Pakistan's role as the real host of bin Laden and his Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. It says: "Bin Laden's Al Qaeda network was able to expand under the safe santuary extended by Taliban following Pakistan directives. If there is any doubt on that issue, consider the location of bin Laden's camp targeted by US Cruise missiles, Zahawa. Positioned on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, it was built by Pakistani contractors, funded by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate and protected under the patronage of a local and influential Jadran tribal leader, Jalaluddin Haqqani. However, the real host in that facility was the Pakistani ISI. If this was later to become bin Laden's base, then serious questions are raised by the early relationship between bin Laden and Pakistan's ISI."
7. It describes Jalaluddin Haqqani as "the Jadran tribal leader most exploited by ISI during the Soviet-Afghan war to facilitate the introduction of Arab mercenaries " and the Taliban as "the handy cloak woven by Pakistan to shroud their progress?" Whose progress---Al Qaeda's or Pakistan's? Most probably, Pakistan's, but this is not clear.
8. The analysis describes the US objective as "the establishment of a more stable coalition Afghan Government free of the Taliban and Pakistani interference" and advocates a cost effective military engagement, with appropriate air support, than the mass deployment of ground forces. It says: "The enemy does not have mass, which makes them harder to engage."
9. The analysis' predictions of differences one day emerging between the Afghans and the Taliban on the one side and Al Qaeda on the other because of Al Qaeda's superiority complex and its perception of itself as an elite force destined to command have not proved correct so far.
10. The analysis projects the then coming war against terrorism in Afghanistan as likely to be fought on two fronts--- a war to destroy the material strength of Al Qaeda---its cadres, training camps, infrastructure etc--- and another for the minds of the people. In the context of the war for the minds of the people, it underlines the importance of right names and right images to influence the minds of the targeted people.
11. It points out the impact on the minds of the Muslims made by the characterisation of the US as "the Great Satan". The constant reference to the US as the "Great Satan" and not as the US serves the double purpose of highlighting the immense power of the US which could be countered only with determination and projecting that power in negative colours to create an aversion for that power. It stresses the importance of a similar characterisation of Al Qaeda by an appropriate name and not by its real name of Al Qaeda. Apparently, US policy-makers and psy-warriors have not been able to determine what that characterisation could be.
12. The third document, also dated September 24,2001, is titled: "Veteran Afghanistan traveller's analysis of Al Qaeda and Taliban, military, political and cultural landscape and its weaknesses. " It also carries the same caution as the second. It goes into great detail regarding the Pakistani game in Afghanistan in the following words:
13. "During the Soviet-Afghan war, the West preferred to maintain a policy of deniability and allowed Pakistan to handle the daily administration of the war, cash and arms distribution. It was a task Pakistan carried out with great enthusiasm and they helped themselves to generous portion of cash and arms. The Pakistan Government also had a hidden agenda.
14. "Unlike the West, they (Pakistan) were concerned with what would happen after the war to ensure influence over any Government that came to power in Afghanistan after a Soviet withdrawal. Pakistan decided to directly influence the outcome. Rather than allow the most gifted Afghan commanders and parties to flourish, who would be difficult to control later, Pakistan preferred to groom the incompetent ones for the role of future leaders of Afghanistan. Being incompetent, they would be wholly reliant on Pakistan for support. The principal beneficiary of this policy was Gulbuddin Heckmatyar. His credentials were that of an anti-Western Islamic fundamentalist.
15." In tandem with favouring the incompetent Heckmatyar over more enterprising and gifted commanders such as Ahmed Shah Massoud, the Tadjik commander from Northern Afghanistan, Pakistan also encouraged, facilitated and often escorted Arabs from the Middle East into Afghanistan...... Visitors from the Middle East had been in evidence since the very early part of the Soviet-Afghan war. However, they lacked numbers, confidence, experience or bonding ties sufficient to give them a separate identity from their hosts.
16." This was allowed to evolve over a period of time, which was effectively the incubation of Al Qaeda. For the first time, large numbers of Arabs were observed in Afghanistan during the Soviet withdrawal. One of the key features of the Paktia border province, in which they were first established, was that it had no Russians.....At that point, the Arab visitors were largely linked and reliant on Haqqani's mujahideen in Paktia.
17. "When Kabul finally fell, it was Ahmed Shah Massoud who captured it, not Heckmatyar. Pakistan could not accept this result and the fragile Afghan coalition Government began another civil war, with the Pakistani stooge Heckmatyar being backed to seize total power. He was never able to wrest Kabul from Massoud, despite massive logistical and material ( including manpower) support from Pakistan. Against this failure, it should be noted that Pakistan has lost every war it has ever fought.
18. "After years of futile effort, which effectively saw the Lebanonisation of Afghanistan, Pakistan finally abandoned Heckmatyar. However, not in favour of a more rational policy. Instead, they set about doing the same thing all over again. They created another force they hoped to have better control over than Heckmatyar's rabble. It was called Taliban,the Arabic name "Talib" being literally translated as "Asker" or "Seeker".
19." Taliban means "the Seekers", signifying a student of divinity. This inspired title helped cloak Pakistan's hidden agenda in a new Islamic coat. To lead the Taliban Pakistan chose Mullah Mohammad Omar, who was willing to do as he was told. According to Taliban propaganda, the Mullah was divinely inspired to rid Afghanistan of the troublesome war and warlords. Afghanistan was blighted with both, largely due to years of civil war sponsored by Pakistan and reliant on the stockpile of arms plundered from a covert Western arms pipeline. From the old Soviet-Afghan war days, the Mullah emerged with a fully functioning, fully-armed, conventionally-equipped, fully-trained military force prone to large-scale conventional actions. Omar's emergence is credited to Pakistan ISI's actions.
20."The repeated, pronounced pattern under ISI direction has been to ignore the poorly-trained guerilla nature of the Afghan Mujahideen and press them to conduct conventional-style engagement, the same style Taliban are credited with learning from the Koran. As a result of these actions, the fully-supported by Pakistan Taliban prevailed over the unsupported legitimate government of Afghanistan.
21." The Taliban is not synonymous with Afghanistan. It was created, imposed and recognised by Pakistan in pursuit of its own interests. Playing the Islamic fundamentalist card as a means of securing control over a compliant proxy regime in neighbouring Afghanistan has seriously backfired. Pakistan has also lost control of the Taliban, who are proving to be both unpredictable and ungrateful. Under the shade of the Taliban umbrella, the bin Laden brand of extremism has been able to grow unmolested inside Afghanistan.
22." The Al Qaeda agenda in Afghanistan differs significantly from that of the Taliban. They are not about creating an independent Islamic State. Long term, there can be no room for Taliban in their ambitions. Having been artificially introduced to the region and encouraged in their ambitions so far, they have grown in confidence and stature. Taliban acceptance and approval of fundamentalist non-Afghans as part of their fighting force were merely an extension of the Pakistani policy during the Soviet-Afghan war. It is very important to realise that members of 055 Brigade (Al Qaeda) might serve with Taliban forces, but they are not in any Western sense integrated. They remain rather like an international brigade, different in language, habit and in the interpretation of Islam. Additionally, their vision of the future of Afghanistan differs.
23."Pakistan's goals are simple, the continuance of the policy they have always demonstrated regarding Afghanistan. It is failing with the Taliban and it cannot succeed under any Afghan Giovernment controlled by Al Qaeda. The repercussions from Pakistan's attempt to manipulate the Islamic card are just surfacing.
24." In Islamabad, they have tried to ignore or bury the evidence for some time. It must be a deeply troubling period for General (Musharraf) in Pakistan, who is asked to help hunt down the culprits that he helped to establish and supported. Not to support the US invites trouble and to assist the US to their aims also presents problems to Pakistan. The quandary leaves the Pakistanis confused as to how they might be absolved without permanently shattering their regional aspirations or their Government." (Citation of document ends)
25. The second and third documents are both dated September 24, 2001. The language in the second document is apparently that of a professional intelligence analyst, but the language of the third is not. It appears to be that of a source and not of the DIA. It would seem that the third document is the report of the source and the second is the note of a DIA analyst or analysts who had forwarded it to their superiors giving their assessment and making their recommendations regarding the future course of action.
26. From these documents, it is clear that the DIA knew of the role of the ISI in the sponsorship of not only the Taliban, but also Al Qaeda. And yet, the Bush administration has for over two years chosen to close its eyes to the complicity of Pakistan and to project Musharraf to its own public opinion as well as to the international community as a frontline ally in the war against terrorism. Why? A question to which there has been no convincing answer.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
FIRE OF 2005 IN ABBOTTABAD DESTROYED LAND RECORDS
I am reproducing blow an E-Mail received by me from a reader:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/41218604@N00/2393224203/
Environmentalist (38 months ago | reply)
Thank you friends for your visits and for your valuable comments..
These photographs were taken from Sarban Mountain top ( Ht 5500 feet ) and for clarity reasons, it was taken right after the rainfall, as Abbottabad gets very polluted and hazed afterwards..
This photo is showing slums , which were built after Zia's Marshal-Law,..and robbery of national assets became totally out of control during last eight years ,..when Deputy Commissioners were removed ,..
Illegal dictators and monsters need support of pseudo politicians and fake religious people ,..so most of the natural drainage areas, green belts, free lying government lands were grabbed by such people as a black mailing tactic...
If slums were built on private land, even so , Pakistan Environmental Protection Act and Pakistan Antiquities Act , Forest laws, Municipal laws etc..were clearly violated..
Agents in the municipal and local government , either ignored the laws and looked the other way,..or they colluded and took due share in the form of bribes,..
Afghan refugees and migrants from mountains rented such illegal properties and as they had no attachment with the town hence they played havoc with the trees present in those areas,...which they are stealing even today,..and after ten years we will not see even a single tree in this area,.
Ruling elite stayed busy in the developments of their countless posh housing schemes and finally when people realized about this great game, then in 2005 AD, they burnt down the British era land record room in Abbottabad ,.. ( Murree record was burnt few months ago, and Karachi record and maps were burnt down few weeks ago )
Upto 15 feet long hand drawn maps , government confidential papers , survey records,...upto China border,..all kept in neat leather folders ,..disappeared forever with flames on the silent morning of June 6, 2005 ,..Fire engulfed graceful stone and timber structure of Hazara's Mohafiz Khana ,..which was built in 1876 AD..., as usual electric short circuit was blamed, but staff reported that electric main switches were off at the time of fire,..No government agency brought search dogs or investigators after such a big national loss..??
Please note when Army officer's house was robbed in Rawalpindi, then sniffing dogs of Army were called and within minutes culprits were nabbed ,..Ah Pakistan..
http://www.flickr.com/photos/41218604@N00/2393224203/
Environmentalist (38 months ago | reply)
Thank you friends for your visits and for your valuable comments..
These photographs were taken from Sarban Mountain top ( Ht 5500 feet ) and for clarity reasons, it was taken right after the rainfall, as Abbottabad gets very polluted and hazed afterwards..
This photo is showing slums , which were built after Zia's Marshal-Law,..and robbery of national assets became totally out of control during last eight years ,..when Deputy Commissioners were removed ,..
Illegal dictators and monsters need support of pseudo politicians and fake religious people ,..so most of the natural drainage areas, green belts, free lying government lands were grabbed by such people as a black mailing tactic...
If slums were built on private land, even so , Pakistan Environmental Protection Act and Pakistan Antiquities Act , Forest laws, Municipal laws etc..were clearly violated..
Agents in the municipal and local government , either ignored the laws and looked the other way,..or they colluded and took due share in the form of bribes,..
Afghan refugees and migrants from mountains rented such illegal properties and as they had no attachment with the town hence they played havoc with the trees present in those areas,...which they are stealing even today,..and after ten years we will not see even a single tree in this area,.
Ruling elite stayed busy in the developments of their countless posh housing schemes and finally when people realized about this great game, then in 2005 AD, they burnt down the British era land record room in Abbottabad ,.. ( Murree record was burnt few months ago, and Karachi record and maps were burnt down few weeks ago )
Upto 15 feet long hand drawn maps , government confidential papers , survey records,...upto China border,..all kept in neat leather folders ,..disappeared forever with flames on the silent morning of June 6, 2005 ,..Fire engulfed graceful stone and timber structure of Hazara's Mohafiz Khana ,..which was built in 1876 AD..., as usual electric short circuit was blamed, but staff reported that electric main switches were off at the time of fire,..No government agency brought search dogs or investigators after such a big national loss..??
Please note when Army officer's house was robbed in Rawalpindi, then sniffing dogs of Army were called and within minutes culprits were nabbed ,..Ah Pakistan..
THE TABLIGHI JAMAAT
B.RAMAN
( Written at the request of the Editor of the “Economic Times”, New Delhi )
Some WikiLeaks documents giving details of the interrogation of some Al Qaeda suspects detained by the US at the Guantanamo Bay detention centre in Cuba reportedly allege that these detenus had stayed in the premises of the Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) in Delhi while waiting to get Pakistani visas from the Pakistani mission in New Delhi for going to Pakistan for training.
These documents describe their association with the TJ in the Delhi area as an “ Al Qaeda cover story”---meaning that while they were from Al Qaeda, they described themselves as members of the TJ in order to conceal their association with Al Qaeda. There has also been an allegation linking the TJ with the explosions in some suburban trains of Mumbai in July,2006, in which nearly about 200 innocent civilians were killed. These allegations have been denied by a spokesman of the TJ in Delhi, who has reportedly questioned the authenticity of the documents.
The TJ is a very popular organization of voluntary Islamic preachers with a large following among the Muslims of the sub-continent. Its preachers travel to different countries having a Muslim population to hold classes in the Holy Koran. It says its aim is to make Muslims better Muslims. Its office-bearers and preachers lead a simple life and avoid any ostentation.
The branches of the TJ in Pakistan and Bangladesh have come to adverse notice from time to time for association with jihadi terrorist organizations such as the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), which are members of the International Islamic Front For Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish People formed by the late Osama bin Laden in 1998.
As an organization of preachers of Islam who lead an austere life, it enjoys some respect in many countries of the world having a Muslim population and this enables its preachers to easily obtain visas for travel to different countries.
The TJ of Pakistan came to adverse notice for the first time during Mr.Nawaz Sharif’s first tenure as the Prime Minister (1990-93). Lt. Gen.Javed Nasir, the then Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was allegedly associated with the TJ. He had to be sacked under US pressure in 1993 because of the suspicion that he had links with the Afghan Mujahideen.
After his sacking, he became an active member of the TJ and used to go on preaching missions to different countries with the TJ preachers. In the 1990s, sections of the Pakistani media such as the “News”, the “”Frontier Post” and the “Newsline” came out with a number of stories alleging that trained cadres of jihadi terrorist organizations such as the HUM were obtaining visas by posing as preachers of the TJ and traveling to other countries for recruiting young Muslims for being trained in Pakistan before being used in acts of terrorism.
The TJ developed a large following in Chechnya and Dagestan in Russia, in Somalia and some African countries. The intelligence agencies of these countries strongly suspected that terrorist organizations based in Pakistan were using the cover provided by the preaching activities of the TJ for creating sleeper cells in the Muslim communities of different countries.
They allegedly black-listed the TJ and banned the issue of visas to its preachers. The active association of Lt.Gen.Javed Nasir with the TJ added to their suspicions.
The TJ office-bearers in Pakistan and Bangladesh have strongly denied these allegations and suspicions as an attempt to discredit an organization of genuine preachers of Islam as an associate of jihadi terrorist organizations.
While the TJ of Pakistan as an organization has not come to notice for its association with any act of terrorism, many suspects belonging to jihadi terrorist organizations, who were arrested and interrogated in different countries, were alleged to have participated in the preaching missions of the TJ of Pakistan.
In view of this, there is a big question mark over the activities of the TJ of Pakistan and Bangladesh and they are reportedly under close watch in many countries. Following the suburban train explosions in Mumbai in July 2006, there were allegations that organizations such as the LET and the HUJI had started using the cover of the TJ for diverting the suspicion of the security agencies away from them. This has been strongly denied by those associated with the TJ of India which is not looked upon in other countries with the same suspicion as the TJ of Pakistan and Bangladesh.
It is possible that some of Al Qaeda suspects who came to New Delhi to obtain Pakistani visas might have used the premises of the TJ for their stay and projected themselves as preachers of the TJ in order to avoid any scrutiny of their links with Al Qaeda and its affiliates. (11-5-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi )
( Written at the request of the Editor of the “Economic Times”, New Delhi )
Some WikiLeaks documents giving details of the interrogation of some Al Qaeda suspects detained by the US at the Guantanamo Bay detention centre in Cuba reportedly allege that these detenus had stayed in the premises of the Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) in Delhi while waiting to get Pakistani visas from the Pakistani mission in New Delhi for going to Pakistan for training.
These documents describe their association with the TJ in the Delhi area as an “ Al Qaeda cover story”---meaning that while they were from Al Qaeda, they described themselves as members of the TJ in order to conceal their association with Al Qaeda. There has also been an allegation linking the TJ with the explosions in some suburban trains of Mumbai in July,2006, in which nearly about 200 innocent civilians were killed. These allegations have been denied by a spokesman of the TJ in Delhi, who has reportedly questioned the authenticity of the documents.
The TJ is a very popular organization of voluntary Islamic preachers with a large following among the Muslims of the sub-continent. Its preachers travel to different countries having a Muslim population to hold classes in the Holy Koran. It says its aim is to make Muslims better Muslims. Its office-bearers and preachers lead a simple life and avoid any ostentation.
The branches of the TJ in Pakistan and Bangladesh have come to adverse notice from time to time for association with jihadi terrorist organizations such as the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), which are members of the International Islamic Front For Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish People formed by the late Osama bin Laden in 1998.
As an organization of preachers of Islam who lead an austere life, it enjoys some respect in many countries of the world having a Muslim population and this enables its preachers to easily obtain visas for travel to different countries.
The TJ of Pakistan came to adverse notice for the first time during Mr.Nawaz Sharif’s first tenure as the Prime Minister (1990-93). Lt. Gen.Javed Nasir, the then Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was allegedly associated with the TJ. He had to be sacked under US pressure in 1993 because of the suspicion that he had links with the Afghan Mujahideen.
After his sacking, he became an active member of the TJ and used to go on preaching missions to different countries with the TJ preachers. In the 1990s, sections of the Pakistani media such as the “News”, the “”Frontier Post” and the “Newsline” came out with a number of stories alleging that trained cadres of jihadi terrorist organizations such as the HUM were obtaining visas by posing as preachers of the TJ and traveling to other countries for recruiting young Muslims for being trained in Pakistan before being used in acts of terrorism.
The TJ developed a large following in Chechnya and Dagestan in Russia, in Somalia and some African countries. The intelligence agencies of these countries strongly suspected that terrorist organizations based in Pakistan were using the cover provided by the preaching activities of the TJ for creating sleeper cells in the Muslim communities of different countries.
They allegedly black-listed the TJ and banned the issue of visas to its preachers. The active association of Lt.Gen.Javed Nasir with the TJ added to their suspicions.
The TJ office-bearers in Pakistan and Bangladesh have strongly denied these allegations and suspicions as an attempt to discredit an organization of genuine preachers of Islam as an associate of jihadi terrorist organizations.
While the TJ of Pakistan as an organization has not come to notice for its association with any act of terrorism, many suspects belonging to jihadi terrorist organizations, who were arrested and interrogated in different countries, were alleged to have participated in the preaching missions of the TJ of Pakistan.
In view of this, there is a big question mark over the activities of the TJ of Pakistan and Bangladesh and they are reportedly under close watch in many countries. Following the suburban train explosions in Mumbai in July 2006, there were allegations that organizations such as the LET and the HUJI had started using the cover of the TJ for diverting the suspicion of the security agencies away from them. This has been strongly denied by those associated with the TJ of India which is not looked upon in other countries with the same suspicion as the TJ of Pakistan and Bangladesh.
It is possible that some of Al Qaeda suspects who came to New Delhi to obtain Pakistani visas might have used the premises of the TJ for their stay and projected themselves as preachers of the TJ in order to avoid any scrutiny of their links with Al Qaeda and its affiliates. (11-5-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi )
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
NETIZEN SUPPORT FOR OBL IN CHINA
NETIZEN SUPPORT FOR OBL IN CHINA
B.RAMAN
The Chinese authorities seem to be concerned over the admiration for Osama bin Laden as an "anti-US warrior" that seems to prevail among some sections of its growing community of netizens These sections seem to believe that OBL's war against the US indirectly helped in countering the US threat to China by keeping the US forces preoccupied in dealing with OBL and Al Qaeda. Now that OBL is dead, the US may have more resources for being used against China. So they fear. An interesting analysis on this subject carried by the Chinese Communist Party controlled "Global Times" on May 10,2011, is annexed. (11-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Chinese view of bin laden's death
Source: Global Times
May 10,2011
By Shen Weihuang
When US President Barack Obama announced to the world that the most wanted terrorist in modern history has been killed, public opinion was naturally split along the geopolitical divide with most Westerners celebrating, while many in the Middle East mourned.
In China, however, the public's reaction, as measured by a number of unscientific online polls, was split amid concern that Bin Laden's demise might refocus dormant tensions between the US and China.
Almost 60 percent of the 500,000 people who took an online survey conducted by Hong Kong based Phoenix television, agreed with the statement that Bin Laden's death was a sad event because "he was an anti-US warrior."
Barely 18 percent clicked the statement to indicate they were happy that "the head of terrorism" had been killed, while almost 10 percent of respondents selected the option that indicated they didn't care.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government didn't waffle in its support for the killing of Bin Laden. After his death the Chinese Foreign Ministry welcomed the news, saying his death was an "important event" and that terrorists are a public enemy that China opposes terrorism in all its forms.
Another online survey posted on the Global Times' Chinese website asked participants whether they thought the US would get tougher on China now that Bin Laden is out of the picture. More than 75 percent of the 17,000 respondents clicked "yes."
Other online portals carried irreverent, even virulent discussions relating to Bin Laden's death.
A thread on mop.com, one of China's leading online bulletin boards, suggested Bin Laden's death should be revenged by "attacking the most vulnerable parts of the US."
One writer suggested that Bin Laden had been a helpful foil to a number of US presidents. "Thirty years ago, he helped President Reagan take down the Soviet Union, 10 years ago, he helped President Bush begin his military campaign in the Middle East, and now his sacrifice will surely help President Obama win re-election."
While many experts discount the veracity of online surveys to provide a true measure of public opinion, they also agree that the responses are worrisome.
"Many of the opinions expressed online are irrational and ill-informed. People need to calm down and reflect on what they are saying," said Shen Dingli, professor of international relations from Fudan University in Shanghai.
Shen has no doubt that the world is now a better, safer place without Bin Laden. "Osama bin Laden was a terrorist, and his death will not only save many people's lives, it will also bring comfort to the families of those who died. His death is good for humanity," he said.
Another scholar, Xu Zidong, from Hong Kong's Lingnan University, believes the decade-old hunt for the terrorist mastermind distracted the US from engaging China on a number of contentious issues.
"Before the 911 attack, the US saw China as its biggest threat. Relations between the two countries were very tense after George W. Bush took the office in January 2001," Xu said.
In February that year, the US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, upped the pressure on China by ordering a re-evaluation of Sino-US military communications strategy. A month later, Bush ordered all departments to re-evaluate their China strategy.
Two months later a US navy aircraft collided with a Chinese military fighter jet near Hainan Island, killing the Chinese pilot Wang Wei. The US aircraft made an emergency landing on Hainan and its crew of 24 were detained until the US delivered a written account of the incident to the Chinese government.
Three weeks after the military jet incident, Bush announced a $4.5-billion weapons sale to Taiwan, the largest since the president's father sold 150 F-16 fighter jets to the island almost decade earlier.
President Bush added fuel to the fire and caused an uproar in China when he told American reporters that the US would take all necessary means to protect Taiwan.
"The Taiwan question has always been the most contentious issue between the US and China and Bush's remarks were intolerable. To be honest, we believed the situation was going to continue to escalate," said Zhu Feng, professor of International Relations at Peking University.
In September of that year, New York's World Trade Center buildings were attacked and US attention become firmly fixed on to the Middle East.
"After 911, I had a sense of relief that the pressure between China and the US would ease off, but the discontent and anger among Chinese isn't easily forgotten," Xu said.
Over the past decade, China and the US have cooperated on a number of fronts to combat terrorism. Two weeks after 911 officials from both countries met in Washington to develop an anti-terrorism framework.
China also agreed to provide greater political and diplomatic support to the US in the United Nations after 911, noted an essay published by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. The authors also suggest China played a role in improving ties between the US and Pakistan.
As well, China helped hem in Al-Qeada militants by closing its border with Afghanistan and allowed an American aircraft carrier to refuel and re-supply in Hong Kong.
In response to China's moves, the US listed the "East Turkistan Islamic Movement" as a terrorist organization in 2002, and killed it's founder, Hasan Mahsum, during a joint military operation with Pakistan in 2003.
Relations were strained again in 2004 after the US released members of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement who were being held as prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and refused to hand them over to China.
Many political scientists believe that China and the US have too much at stake on too many other fronts to allow their country's hawks to force a serious deterioration of relations. The two countries' economies are all but dependent on bilateral trade, financing and investment. The countries have also cooperated on international legal issues such money laundering, human trafficking and piracy.
"The death of Bin Laden won't have much influence on current Sino-US relations. The war on terrorism is far from over and the US will be on high alert for a terrorist attack for the next five to 10 years," said Sun Zhe, director of the center for Sino-US relations at Tsinghua University.
"It's unlikely the US will continue to give China a hard time and the political situation is totally different than it was in 2001. The US seems to have realized that pressure tactics can only harm relations," he added.
And indeed relations continue to move apace as witnessed by the Third Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which ended in the Washington yesterday. At the meeting Vice Premier Wang Qishan perhaps offered a hopeful insight into future bilateral relations when he said "China and the US have far more shared interests than differences."
"So the voice from the Internet is just a flash in the pan, the greater trend can't be stopped, no one wants to see giants like China and the US in conflict," said professor Shen.
B.RAMAN
The Chinese authorities seem to be concerned over the admiration for Osama bin Laden as an "anti-US warrior" that seems to prevail among some sections of its growing community of netizens These sections seem to believe that OBL's war against the US indirectly helped in countering the US threat to China by keeping the US forces preoccupied in dealing with OBL and Al Qaeda. Now that OBL is dead, the US may have more resources for being used against China. So they fear. An interesting analysis on this subject carried by the Chinese Communist Party controlled "Global Times" on May 10,2011, is annexed. (11-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Chinese view of bin laden's death
Source: Global Times
May 10,2011
By Shen Weihuang
When US President Barack Obama announced to the world that the most wanted terrorist in modern history has been killed, public opinion was naturally split along the geopolitical divide with most Westerners celebrating, while many in the Middle East mourned.
In China, however, the public's reaction, as measured by a number of unscientific online polls, was split amid concern that Bin Laden's demise might refocus dormant tensions between the US and China.
Almost 60 percent of the 500,000 people who took an online survey conducted by Hong Kong based Phoenix television, agreed with the statement that Bin Laden's death was a sad event because "he was an anti-US warrior."
Barely 18 percent clicked the statement to indicate they were happy that "the head of terrorism" had been killed, while almost 10 percent of respondents selected the option that indicated they didn't care.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government didn't waffle in its support for the killing of Bin Laden. After his death the Chinese Foreign Ministry welcomed the news, saying his death was an "important event" and that terrorists are a public enemy that China opposes terrorism in all its forms.
Another online survey posted on the Global Times' Chinese website asked participants whether they thought the US would get tougher on China now that Bin Laden is out of the picture. More than 75 percent of the 17,000 respondents clicked "yes."
Other online portals carried irreverent, even virulent discussions relating to Bin Laden's death.
A thread on mop.com, one of China's leading online bulletin boards, suggested Bin Laden's death should be revenged by "attacking the most vulnerable parts of the US."
One writer suggested that Bin Laden had been a helpful foil to a number of US presidents. "Thirty years ago, he helped President Reagan take down the Soviet Union, 10 years ago, he helped President Bush begin his military campaign in the Middle East, and now his sacrifice will surely help President Obama win re-election."
While many experts discount the veracity of online surveys to provide a true measure of public opinion, they also agree that the responses are worrisome.
"Many of the opinions expressed online are irrational and ill-informed. People need to calm down and reflect on what they are saying," said Shen Dingli, professor of international relations from Fudan University in Shanghai.
Shen has no doubt that the world is now a better, safer place without Bin Laden. "Osama bin Laden was a terrorist, and his death will not only save many people's lives, it will also bring comfort to the families of those who died. His death is good for humanity," he said.
Another scholar, Xu Zidong, from Hong Kong's Lingnan University, believes the decade-old hunt for the terrorist mastermind distracted the US from engaging China on a number of contentious issues.
"Before the 911 attack, the US saw China as its biggest threat. Relations between the two countries were very tense after George W. Bush took the office in January 2001," Xu said.
In February that year, the US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, upped the pressure on China by ordering a re-evaluation of Sino-US military communications strategy. A month later, Bush ordered all departments to re-evaluate their China strategy.
Two months later a US navy aircraft collided with a Chinese military fighter jet near Hainan Island, killing the Chinese pilot Wang Wei. The US aircraft made an emergency landing on Hainan and its crew of 24 were detained until the US delivered a written account of the incident to the Chinese government.
Three weeks after the military jet incident, Bush announced a $4.5-billion weapons sale to Taiwan, the largest since the president's father sold 150 F-16 fighter jets to the island almost decade earlier.
President Bush added fuel to the fire and caused an uproar in China when he told American reporters that the US would take all necessary means to protect Taiwan.
"The Taiwan question has always been the most contentious issue between the US and China and Bush's remarks were intolerable. To be honest, we believed the situation was going to continue to escalate," said Zhu Feng, professor of International Relations at Peking University.
In September of that year, New York's World Trade Center buildings were attacked and US attention become firmly fixed on to the Middle East.
"After 911, I had a sense of relief that the pressure between China and the US would ease off, but the discontent and anger among Chinese isn't easily forgotten," Xu said.
Over the past decade, China and the US have cooperated on a number of fronts to combat terrorism. Two weeks after 911 officials from both countries met in Washington to develop an anti-terrorism framework.
China also agreed to provide greater political and diplomatic support to the US in the United Nations after 911, noted an essay published by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. The authors also suggest China played a role in improving ties between the US and Pakistan.
As well, China helped hem in Al-Qeada militants by closing its border with Afghanistan and allowed an American aircraft carrier to refuel and re-supply in Hong Kong.
In response to China's moves, the US listed the "East Turkistan Islamic Movement" as a terrorist organization in 2002, and killed it's founder, Hasan Mahsum, during a joint military operation with Pakistan in 2003.
Relations were strained again in 2004 after the US released members of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement who were being held as prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and refused to hand them over to China.
Many political scientists believe that China and the US have too much at stake on too many other fronts to allow their country's hawks to force a serious deterioration of relations. The two countries' economies are all but dependent on bilateral trade, financing and investment. The countries have also cooperated on international legal issues such money laundering, human trafficking and piracy.
"The death of Bin Laden won't have much influence on current Sino-US relations. The war on terrorism is far from over and the US will be on high alert for a terrorist attack for the next five to 10 years," said Sun Zhe, director of the center for Sino-US relations at Tsinghua University.
"It's unlikely the US will continue to give China a hard time and the political situation is totally different than it was in 2001. The US seems to have realized that pressure tactics can only harm relations," he added.
And indeed relations continue to move apace as witnessed by the Third Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which ended in the Washington yesterday. At the meeting Vice Premier Wang Qishan perhaps offered a hopeful insight into future bilateral relations when he said "China and the US have far more shared interests than differences."
"So the voice from the Internet is just a flash in the pan, the greater trend can't be stopped, no one wants to see giants like China and the US in conflict," said professor Shen.
CAN PAKISTAN UNILATERALLY RENOUNCE US ASSISTANCE?
B.RAMAN
Can Pakistan unilaterally renounce US assistance in protest against the violation of its sovereignty by the US naval commandos who raided Osama bin Laden's house at Abbottabad on the night of May 1,2011, and killed him and as a mark of its indignation over the crescendo of US allegations and suspicions regarding a possible complicity of the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in facilitating OBL's stay at Abbottabad for nearly five years?
2. According to reliable sources in Pakistan, this is one of the options being considered by the political and military leadership to ward off public criticism over the perceived inaction of the political and military leaders in the face of the repeated violations of Pakistan's sovereignty by US Drone (pilotless) aircraft in the tribal belt in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and at Abbottabad by the naval commandos.
3. The violation of the sovereignty at Abbottabad has been particularly galling to officers at the lower and middle levels of the Armed Forces. The reputation till now enjoyed by Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), in the eyes of these officers as a quiet strong man has been dented. Many of these officers no longer regard him as strong as they originally thought he was.
4.Concern over the damage suffered by the reputation of Kayani and other senior officers is behind Kayan's visits to many garrison towns after a Corps Commanders' conference in the GHQ in Rawalpindi last week to explain why the Abbottabad raid took the army by surprise.
5. According to these sources, many in the Corps Commanders conference voiced their disquiet over the failure of the civilian political leadership----particularly President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani--- to vigorously defend the Army and the ISI in the face of the attacks on their competence and professional integrity emanating from high levels of the US Administration, including Mr.Leon Panetta, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who co-ordinated the commando raid.
6. The aggressive anti-US remarks of Gilani in the National Assembly on May 9 were prompted by the seething anger in the Army over the perceived hesitation in the civilian leadership in coming to the defence of the Army and the ISi. The cordiality that till now prevailed in the relationship between Prime Minister Gilani and Kayani is showing signs of being dissipated.
7. These sources feel that the danger of another coup being staged by a resentful army is remote because the Army is no longer confident of enjoying the support of the increasingly independent and fearless judiciary in legitimising any coup post-facto. At the same time, the Army's disillusionment with the leadership qualities of Zardari is showing signs of increasing and pressures are likely to increase for his exit. The salvos against Zardari and Gilani fired by Shah Mehmood Quereshi, former Foreign Minister, for their incompetent handling of the Abbottabad raid have been inspired by his Army backers.
8. These sources add that it is in this context that suggestions are being made for some dramatic action by the political and military leadership to salvage the reputation of the country. One such suggestion is for a unilateral renunciation of US assistance. Whether this option will be accepted and implemented or not will depend on the kind of support China is prepared to extend should Pakistan unilaterally renounce US assistance. To ascertain this will be the principal objective of Gilani's four-day visit to China from May 17. The fact that Gilani has not immediately dashed off to Beijing, but will be going only after a week would indicate a desire to avoid over-reaction in the heat of the moment. ( 11-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Can Pakistan unilaterally renounce US assistance in protest against the violation of its sovereignty by the US naval commandos who raided Osama bin Laden's house at Abbottabad on the night of May 1,2011, and killed him and as a mark of its indignation over the crescendo of US allegations and suspicions regarding a possible complicity of the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in facilitating OBL's stay at Abbottabad for nearly five years?
2. According to reliable sources in Pakistan, this is one of the options being considered by the political and military leadership to ward off public criticism over the perceived inaction of the political and military leaders in the face of the repeated violations of Pakistan's sovereignty by US Drone (pilotless) aircraft in the tribal belt in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and at Abbottabad by the naval commandos.
3. The violation of the sovereignty at Abbottabad has been particularly galling to officers at the lower and middle levels of the Armed Forces. The reputation till now enjoyed by Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), in the eyes of these officers as a quiet strong man has been dented. Many of these officers no longer regard him as strong as they originally thought he was.
4.Concern over the damage suffered by the reputation of Kayani and other senior officers is behind Kayan's visits to many garrison towns after a Corps Commanders' conference in the GHQ in Rawalpindi last week to explain why the Abbottabad raid took the army by surprise.
5. According to these sources, many in the Corps Commanders conference voiced their disquiet over the failure of the civilian political leadership----particularly President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani--- to vigorously defend the Army and the ISI in the face of the attacks on their competence and professional integrity emanating from high levels of the US Administration, including Mr.Leon Panetta, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who co-ordinated the commando raid.
6. The aggressive anti-US remarks of Gilani in the National Assembly on May 9 were prompted by the seething anger in the Army over the perceived hesitation in the civilian leadership in coming to the defence of the Army and the ISi. The cordiality that till now prevailed in the relationship between Prime Minister Gilani and Kayani is showing signs of being dissipated.
7. These sources feel that the danger of another coup being staged by a resentful army is remote because the Army is no longer confident of enjoying the support of the increasingly independent and fearless judiciary in legitimising any coup post-facto. At the same time, the Army's disillusionment with the leadership qualities of Zardari is showing signs of increasing and pressures are likely to increase for his exit. The salvos against Zardari and Gilani fired by Shah Mehmood Quereshi, former Foreign Minister, for their incompetent handling of the Abbottabad raid have been inspired by his Army backers.
8. These sources add that it is in this context that suggestions are being made for some dramatic action by the political and military leadership to salvage the reputation of the country. One such suggestion is for a unilateral renunciation of US assistance. Whether this option will be accepted and implemented or not will depend on the kind of support China is prepared to extend should Pakistan unilaterally renounce US assistance. To ascertain this will be the principal objective of Gilani's four-day visit to China from May 17. The fact that Gilani has not immediately dashed off to Beijing, but will be going only after a week would indicate a desire to avoid over-reaction in the heat of the moment. ( 11-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, May 9, 2011
INDIAN MEDIA IN ISLAMABAD
B.RAMAN
Interested Indian observers should thank Sen.Rehman Malik, a fellow cop like me, who is Pakistan's Interior Minister, for facilitating the visit to Islamabad at this sensitive time in the history of Pakistan of two prominent and widely-respected journalists of the Indian electronic media---Barkha Dutt of NDTV and Suhasini Haider of CNN-IBN--- for reporting on the delicate situation there by asking the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi to issue them visas.
2. It has been reported that on the receipt of a Tweet from Barkha regarding the issue of a visa, he intervened immediately to ensure that Indian journalists based in New Delhi faced no difficulty in getting visas. Barkha and Suhasini were among the initial beneficiaries of his intervention.
3. This was a remarkable gesture by Senator Malik which has made me wonder how we in India would have conducted ourselves in a similar situation. If at the height of a national security situation in India, some reputed Pakistani journalists had tweeted Shri P.Chidambaram, our Home Minister, seeking his intervention for a visa, would he have intervened? If some well-known Pakistani TV journalists had wanted to come to New Delhi to telecast debates on issues relating to India's relations with Pakistan and the US, would we have allowed them in the same way Pakistan's Interior Ministry--- without any apparent constraining intervention from the Pakistani army and the Inter-Services Intelligence so far--- has allowed Barkha and Suhasini to report from Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad? Would we have allowed a Pakistani journalist like Hamid Mir or Ejaz Haider or Hanif Mohammad or any such personality to telecast a live talk show from New Delhi involving eminent opinion-makers in the brilliant way Barkha has been doing from Islamabad for the last three nights?
4. I have been closely following the despatches of Barkha and Suhasini and the live debates organised by Barkha from Islamabad for the last three nights. What has fascinated me is not only the rich contents of their despatches and debates, but also the freedom with which the two have apparently been allowed to report and discuss live from Islamabad.
5. Their despatches and debates are being watched not only by audiences in India, but also by audiences in Pakistan. The Pakistani authorities have till now not shown the least sign of nervousness that the reportage of Barkha and Suhasini could add to their difficulties in dealing with a very sensitive domestic situation.
6. This speaks very highly of the self-confidence of Senator Malik and his colleagues and their keenness not to do anything that might come in the way of reporting by the Indian journalists even if there be a potential risk of creating difficulties for the Pakistan Govt.
7. Thanks to the scintillating debates organised by Barkha----three so far--- and the crisp and well-analysed reporting of Suhasini, we in India have a better understanding of the storm signals from Pakistan --- in relation to domestic affairs as well as its relations with the US. Barkha and Suhasini need to be complimented in equal measure for maintaining a healthy balance and restraint in their reporting and for not letting themselves be influenced by "the Fix Pakistan" syndrome unfortunately seen in many other TV news channels.
8.Indo-Pakistan relations are generally characterised by petty-mindedness, suspicions and chicanerry on both sides. Senator Rehman Malik needs to be complimented for rising above such negative reflexes in facilitating the coverage of the situation in Pakistan by Barkha and Suhasini.
9. If we in India are fair and mentally generous, we ought to recognise the gesture of Senator Malik for what it is and reciprocate it in good measure from our side in the hope of paving the way for a turning point in the attitude of the two Governments towards each other's media. (10-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Strudies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Interested Indian observers should thank Sen.Rehman Malik, a fellow cop like me, who is Pakistan's Interior Minister, for facilitating the visit to Islamabad at this sensitive time in the history of Pakistan of two prominent and widely-respected journalists of the Indian electronic media---Barkha Dutt of NDTV and Suhasini Haider of CNN-IBN--- for reporting on the delicate situation there by asking the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi to issue them visas.
2. It has been reported that on the receipt of a Tweet from Barkha regarding the issue of a visa, he intervened immediately to ensure that Indian journalists based in New Delhi faced no difficulty in getting visas. Barkha and Suhasini were among the initial beneficiaries of his intervention.
3. This was a remarkable gesture by Senator Malik which has made me wonder how we in India would have conducted ourselves in a similar situation. If at the height of a national security situation in India, some reputed Pakistani journalists had tweeted Shri P.Chidambaram, our Home Minister, seeking his intervention for a visa, would he have intervened? If some well-known Pakistani TV journalists had wanted to come to New Delhi to telecast debates on issues relating to India's relations with Pakistan and the US, would we have allowed them in the same way Pakistan's Interior Ministry--- without any apparent constraining intervention from the Pakistani army and the Inter-Services Intelligence so far--- has allowed Barkha and Suhasini to report from Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad? Would we have allowed a Pakistani journalist like Hamid Mir or Ejaz Haider or Hanif Mohammad or any such personality to telecast a live talk show from New Delhi involving eminent opinion-makers in the brilliant way Barkha has been doing from Islamabad for the last three nights?
4. I have been closely following the despatches of Barkha and Suhasini and the live debates organised by Barkha from Islamabad for the last three nights. What has fascinated me is not only the rich contents of their despatches and debates, but also the freedom with which the two have apparently been allowed to report and discuss live from Islamabad.
5. Their despatches and debates are being watched not only by audiences in India, but also by audiences in Pakistan. The Pakistani authorities have till now not shown the least sign of nervousness that the reportage of Barkha and Suhasini could add to their difficulties in dealing with a very sensitive domestic situation.
6. This speaks very highly of the self-confidence of Senator Malik and his colleagues and their keenness not to do anything that might come in the way of reporting by the Indian journalists even if there be a potential risk of creating difficulties for the Pakistan Govt.
7. Thanks to the scintillating debates organised by Barkha----three so far--- and the crisp and well-analysed reporting of Suhasini, we in India have a better understanding of the storm signals from Pakistan --- in relation to domestic affairs as well as its relations with the US. Barkha and Suhasini need to be complimented in equal measure for maintaining a healthy balance and restraint in their reporting and for not letting themselves be influenced by "the Fix Pakistan" syndrome unfortunately seen in many other TV news channels.
8.Indo-Pakistan relations are generally characterised by petty-mindedness, suspicions and chicanerry on both sides. Senator Rehman Malik needs to be complimented for rising above such negative reflexes in facilitating the coverage of the situation in Pakistan by Barkha and Suhasini.
9. If we in India are fair and mentally generous, we ought to recognise the gesture of Senator Malik for what it is and reciprocate it in good measure from our side in the hope of paving the way for a turning point in the attitude of the two Governments towards each other's media. (10-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Strudies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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