B.RAMAN
In assessing Col.Muammar Gadaffi’s continuIng defiance of the international pressure to force him to quit, the following facts have to be kept in mind:
• Firstly, what one is facing in Libya is not a revolutionary situation as one had seen in Egypt with mass participation by the youth and other sections of the population, but a civil war like situation with members of rival tribes taking a leading part in the fighting on both sides.
• Secondly, despite reports to the contrary, the involvement of youth in the fight against Gadaffi is not as widespread as it was in Egypt against Hosni Mubarak. The fight against Mubarak was led by innovative and enterprising youth who had nothing to do with his regime in the past, but the fight against Gadaffi is being led by a small group of ex-politicians, ex-bureaucrats, tribal leaders, lawyers and others, who had collaborated with Gaddafi’s oppressive regime, but had fallen out with him only recently. They do not command the same respect with the general population as the young leaders of Egypt did.
• Thirdly, Mubarak had only two forces at his command for dealing with the protest--- the riot police which comes under the Ministry of the Interior and the Army. The riot police got discredited in the initial days of the protest and the Army was not willing to use force against the protestors. Gadaffi has built up a multiplicity of forces to maintain his rule. If one force is unwilling to carry out his orders, there are others who are willing to.
• Fourthly, ever since he succeeded Anwar Sadat in 1981, Mubarak had enjoyed a cosy relationship with the West in general and the US in particular. He also enjoyed good relations with Israel. The intelligence agencies of the US and other Western countries had considerably penetrated and softened the Egyptian Armed Forces and intelligence agencies. This enabled the US to play successfully an activist role in bringing about a peaceful change in Egypt once it realized that Mubarak had to go. Ever since he came to power in 1969, Gaddafi and his forces had looked upon the US and Israel as Libya’s principal enemies. They had prepared themselves for over 40 years to confront the US and Israel. The US had not been able to penetrate the Libyan security forces and intelligence agencies in the same way as it had done in Egypt. It still does not know through whom it should and it can operate in Libya. The recent defectors such as the Libyan diplomats posted abroad and some of the Ministers are unknown quantities in Libya. They will have only limited value as assets for the US.
• Fifthly, there are many strands involved in the protest movement in Libya----anti-Gadaffi elements, rival tribes and anti-foreigner elements such as those who attacked Chinese and South Korean workers and construction sites. Resentment over the better quality of life enjoyed by foreign workers has been an important factor in complicating the situation in Libya. One has not so far seen attacks on foreign workers in Tunisia or Egypt or other countries affected by the current unrest.
• Sixthly, there are only two ways of bringing about the end of the Gaddafi regime---- by inciting a revolt against him by the multiple forces raised by him. The West has not so far been able to do this. The other way is by training and arming the protesters who have liberated large pockets of Eastern Libya, with Benghazi as the epicenter, and helping them to march on to Tripoli to get rid of Gaddafi. Distances involved are large and even if the West provides them with an air cover by enforcing a no-fly zone, the marchers have to cross areas inhabited by tribals who have till now been loyal to Gadaffi. If the fighting is fierce and continues for a long time, there could be a danger of a balkanization of Libya.
2. Gaddafi may not be another Mubarak, who left with his tail tucked between his legs. He may turn out to be another Saddam Hussein----defiant till he dies. ( 1-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, February 28, 2011
REPEATED CALLS FOR JASMINE STROLLS IN CHINA
B.RAMAN
Repeated calls for “Jasmine Strolls” in Chinese cities, including Beijing, emanating from overseas Chinese web sites have added to the nervousness of the Chinese authorities.
2.A Jasmine Stroll is a stroll undertaken by those responding to the calls at pre-indicated places at pre-indicated timings to quietly demonstrate, without shouting slogans, their demand for the end of the rule of the Chinese Communist Party and for democracy and human rights. The purpose of the Strolls is not to indulge in any noticeable protest activity, but just to get out into the streets in large numbers and take a Stroll as a silent mark of their demands.
3. Two such calls have so far been issued---the second one being for Jasmine Strolls on February 27. Nervous Chinese authorities deployed the police and officials of the Ministry of Public Security in large numbers in different cities. While there were no unusual crowds in the streets in addition to the usual Sunday strollers, the authorities have been rounding up suspicious persons for interrogation.
4. It has been reported that among those who took a stroll at the pre-indicated time in a pre-indicated street in Beijing was the outgoing US Ambassador Mr.Jon Huntsman. Following this, the Chinese authorities have blocked his name from all search engines. A call has now been disseminated for another Jasmine Stroll on March 6.
5. The Chinese authorities have stepped up security precautions in the so-called Tibet Autonomous Region and in Chinese-Controlled Xinjiang. It has been reported that all mobile phones of Tibetans and Uighurs are being checked for any prohibited anti-Government songs. Mobile phones containing anti-Government tunes are being seized and the users detained for interrogation.
6. In Tibet and Xinjiang, shops selling books, newspapers and music CDs are being checked for any prohibited material or for cuttings or Xerox copies of reports regarding the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt.
7. The authorities’ security concerns have increased since many of the Chinese being evacuated from Libya in special air lifts following attacks on Chinese workers in Libya are Uighurs. They are apparently worried that these Uighurs, on their return to Xinjiang, might spread stories of the unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and other places and this could encourage the inhabitants of Xinjiang to come out in the streets.
8. The Chinese authorities have not yet informed their population of the details of the attacks on the Chinese workers in Libya. So far, there have been no attacks on Chinese workers in other countries affected by the present unrest. If there are similar incidents in other countries, the Government’s embarrassment could increase.
9. Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, continues to disseminate guidance to the people of China as to how to circumvent Internet controls. ( 28-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Repeated calls for “Jasmine Strolls” in Chinese cities, including Beijing, emanating from overseas Chinese web sites have added to the nervousness of the Chinese authorities.
2.A Jasmine Stroll is a stroll undertaken by those responding to the calls at pre-indicated places at pre-indicated timings to quietly demonstrate, without shouting slogans, their demand for the end of the rule of the Chinese Communist Party and for democracy and human rights. The purpose of the Strolls is not to indulge in any noticeable protest activity, but just to get out into the streets in large numbers and take a Stroll as a silent mark of their demands.
3. Two such calls have so far been issued---the second one being for Jasmine Strolls on February 27. Nervous Chinese authorities deployed the police and officials of the Ministry of Public Security in large numbers in different cities. While there were no unusual crowds in the streets in addition to the usual Sunday strollers, the authorities have been rounding up suspicious persons for interrogation.
4. It has been reported that among those who took a stroll at the pre-indicated time in a pre-indicated street in Beijing was the outgoing US Ambassador Mr.Jon Huntsman. Following this, the Chinese authorities have blocked his name from all search engines. A call has now been disseminated for another Jasmine Stroll on March 6.
5. The Chinese authorities have stepped up security precautions in the so-called Tibet Autonomous Region and in Chinese-Controlled Xinjiang. It has been reported that all mobile phones of Tibetans and Uighurs are being checked for any prohibited anti-Government songs. Mobile phones containing anti-Government tunes are being seized and the users detained for interrogation.
6. In Tibet and Xinjiang, shops selling books, newspapers and music CDs are being checked for any prohibited material or for cuttings or Xerox copies of reports regarding the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt.
7. The authorities’ security concerns have increased since many of the Chinese being evacuated from Libya in special air lifts following attacks on Chinese workers in Libya are Uighurs. They are apparently worried that these Uighurs, on their return to Xinjiang, might spread stories of the unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and other places and this could encourage the inhabitants of Xinjiang to come out in the streets.
8. The Chinese authorities have not yet informed their population of the details of the attacks on the Chinese workers in Libya. So far, there have been no attacks on Chinese workers in other countries affected by the present unrest. If there are similar incidents in other countries, the Government’s embarrassment could increase.
9. Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, continues to disseminate guidance to the people of China as to how to circumvent Internet controls. ( 28-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, February 27, 2011
ORISSA: CAPITULATION TO INSURGENTS
B.RAMAN
The Orissa Government’s handling of the situation arising from the kidnapping on February 16,2011, of Shri Ravella Vineel Krishna, the popular District Collector of Malkangiri District, and a junior engineer Pabitra Majhi by the Maoists active in the District has evoked mixed reactions.
2.While some on the left of the political spectrum have showed understanding of the decision of the Orissa Government to accept 14 demands of the Maoists to secure the release of the kidnapped officers, political parties on the right of the spectrum such as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its representatives and many retired officers of the security bureaucracy have strongly criticized the State Government for conceding the demands of the Maoists.
3. In an editorial titled “Lessons From the Kidnapping” published on February 26, “The Hindu” of Chennai, whose Editor N.Ram is known for his sympathies with the leftists, has praised the “astute handling” of the situation by the State Government. Even before the demands were conceded by the State Government, one saw examples of the hardline views during “The Buck Stops Here” programme of Barkha Dutt on NDTV on February 21. Shri A.K.Doval, former Director of the Intelligence Bureau, and Shri Kanchan Gupta, Associate Editor of the “Pioneer’, a daily close to the BJP, expressed themselves in favour of a “no concessions” approach. Shri Gupta, who is known to be an uncritical admirer of Israel’s no-holds-barred approach to terrorism and insurgency, was even prepared to face the risk of the death of the two officers if that was the outcome of a hardline approach.
4. There has to be an agreement on one point---it was extremely unwise on the part of the District Collector to have undertaken a village visit in an insurgency-affected area without a security escort. The District Collector probably thought that what he apparently looked upon as a brave gesture to the people of the area by touring without security would bring the people of the area closer to the administration. He did not seem to have realized that such gestures were ill-advised in insurgency-affected areas and could prove counter-productive. His action in dispensing with security while touring enabled the Maoists to kidnap him and the junior engineer accompanying him in order to secure their demands and thus placed the State in an unenviable position at the mercy of the insurgents. There are other ways of bringing the people closer to the administration without dispensing with necessary security measures. The hostage situation might not have arisen but for this ill-advised action of the Collector.
5. Once the kidnapping had taken place and the Maoists had taken advantage of the hostage-taking to exercise pressure on the State Government to concede their demands, the State Government was confronted with three difficult questions—Should it negotiate with the insurgents? If so, should it concede their demands? If it did not, what could be the public reaction to the possible death of two dedicated public servants?
6. The counter-terrorism doctrine of practically all countries of the democratic world, including the much-admired Israel, do not rule out negotiations. In fact, agreeing to negotiations is viewed as an essential first step in the strategy to deal with hostage-taking. That is why techniques of negotiations with terrorists or insurgents is included in the syllabus of counter-terrorism training courses in many countries. When Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister in the 1980s and the late R.N.Kao was her Senior Adviser, some officers of the IB and the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) were got trained in negotiation techniques either in the UK or the US.
7.Negotiations, which are an essential part of the drill to deal with hostage situations, have two aspects---operational and psychological. The operational aspect is about giving time to the intelligence and security agencies to collect ground information in order to prepare themselves for physical intervention to rescue the hostages should such intervention become necessary or feasible.
8. The psychological aspect relates to exercising pressure on the insurgents or terrorists either directly or through intermediaries to release the hostages. India had been facing hostage situations since 1971 when two members of the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKJLF) hijacked a plane of the Indian Airlines to Lahore. All Governments in power when these incidents took place had negotiated with the hostage-takers either directly or through intermediaries. It is, therefore, pointless to say that no negotiations should be held. Such a position would be unwisely rigid and come in the way of operational flexibility.
9. It is more difficult to answer the second question---should the demands of the hostage-takers be conceded? The basic principle of all counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency doctrines is that the demands should not be conceded, come what may. While this principle is generally adhered to in most countries even at the risk of the hostages being killed, history of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency has instances where the demands were conceded for some reason or the other even by countries such as Israel or the US even though they openly did not admit so. In India itself, there were two controversial instances of the demands being conceded---- to secure the release of the daughter of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, the then Home Minister in the V.P. Singh Government, in 1989, and the release of some terrorists by the Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee in December 1999 to secure the release of an Indian Airlines Plane hijacked to Kandahar and its passengers. While the release of some terrorists to secure the release of the Mufti’s daughter was inexcusable, the release of some terrorists to secure the release of a large number of IAC passengers was understandable. Once the Vajpayee Government, through its mishandling of the situation, allowed the hijacked plane to leave the Indian airspace and go to Kandahar, it had only two options---either let the passengers die or concede the demands of the terrorists. Public reaction would have been strong had it allowed such a large number of civilians to be killed.
10. In the history of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency, there have been instances where States had rejected the demands of the hostage-takers even at the risk of the hostages being killed when the number of hostages was small and their deaths would not have caused strong public reaction. Examples: The action of the V.P.Singh Government in refusing to concede the demands of the terrorists who kidnapped the Vice-Chancellor of the Kashmir University and one of his staff members in 1990 resulting in their death; the refusal of the Narasimha Rao Government in 1995 to concede the demands of the Al Faran terrorists who had kidnapped five foreign tourists, one of whom managed to escape and the others were allegedly killed by the terrorists; and the refusal of the US and Pakistan Governments to concede the demands of the terrorists who had kidnapped Daniel Pearl, the US journalist, in 2002, which resulted in his death. While the deaths of the tourists in 1995 and of Pearl in 2002 due to the strong line taken by the Governments did not result in strong public reaction, the deaths of the Vice-Chancellor and his staff member did create strong public reaction since it came soon after the surrender by the V.P.Singh Government to the demands of the terrorists to secure the release of the daughter of the then Home Minister. In other hostage situations, the hostages were got released through psychological pressure on the hostages during prolonged negotiations.
11. The major mistake committed by the Orissa Government in dealing with the kidnapping of the District Collector and the Junior Engineer is that it would appear to have concluded at the very beginning of the situation that it had no other option but to concede the demands of the hostage-takers. As a result, the principal aim of the negotiations became not giving the intelligence and security agencies time to prepare the ground for a possible rescue mission, but to reach a compromise with the hostage-takers on their demands. Once the Maoists realized that the State Government had no stomach for prolonged negotiations or intervention to rescue the hostages, they stuck to all their demands and forced the Government to capitulate. The Government seemed to have capitulated without any exercise to identify the various operational and psychological options available to it. Even if the Government was mentally prepared to concede some of the demands in order to save the lives of two dedicated public servants, it could have explored the option of conceding those demands of the Maoists relating to the welfare and grievances of the local people and rejecting those demands which could affect the counter-insurgency operations. It did not do so. It just capitulated without even seeming resistance to the demands of the Maoists. This is likely to affect adversely the effectiveness of future counter-insurgency operations in the State. (27-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Orissa Government’s handling of the situation arising from the kidnapping on February 16,2011, of Shri Ravella Vineel Krishna, the popular District Collector of Malkangiri District, and a junior engineer Pabitra Majhi by the Maoists active in the District has evoked mixed reactions.
2.While some on the left of the political spectrum have showed understanding of the decision of the Orissa Government to accept 14 demands of the Maoists to secure the release of the kidnapped officers, political parties on the right of the spectrum such as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its representatives and many retired officers of the security bureaucracy have strongly criticized the State Government for conceding the demands of the Maoists.
3. In an editorial titled “Lessons From the Kidnapping” published on February 26, “The Hindu” of Chennai, whose Editor N.Ram is known for his sympathies with the leftists, has praised the “astute handling” of the situation by the State Government. Even before the demands were conceded by the State Government, one saw examples of the hardline views during “The Buck Stops Here” programme of Barkha Dutt on NDTV on February 21. Shri A.K.Doval, former Director of the Intelligence Bureau, and Shri Kanchan Gupta, Associate Editor of the “Pioneer’, a daily close to the BJP, expressed themselves in favour of a “no concessions” approach. Shri Gupta, who is known to be an uncritical admirer of Israel’s no-holds-barred approach to terrorism and insurgency, was even prepared to face the risk of the death of the two officers if that was the outcome of a hardline approach.
4. There has to be an agreement on one point---it was extremely unwise on the part of the District Collector to have undertaken a village visit in an insurgency-affected area without a security escort. The District Collector probably thought that what he apparently looked upon as a brave gesture to the people of the area by touring without security would bring the people of the area closer to the administration. He did not seem to have realized that such gestures were ill-advised in insurgency-affected areas and could prove counter-productive. His action in dispensing with security while touring enabled the Maoists to kidnap him and the junior engineer accompanying him in order to secure their demands and thus placed the State in an unenviable position at the mercy of the insurgents. There are other ways of bringing the people closer to the administration without dispensing with necessary security measures. The hostage situation might not have arisen but for this ill-advised action of the Collector.
5. Once the kidnapping had taken place and the Maoists had taken advantage of the hostage-taking to exercise pressure on the State Government to concede their demands, the State Government was confronted with three difficult questions—Should it negotiate with the insurgents? If so, should it concede their demands? If it did not, what could be the public reaction to the possible death of two dedicated public servants?
6. The counter-terrorism doctrine of practically all countries of the democratic world, including the much-admired Israel, do not rule out negotiations. In fact, agreeing to negotiations is viewed as an essential first step in the strategy to deal with hostage-taking. That is why techniques of negotiations with terrorists or insurgents is included in the syllabus of counter-terrorism training courses in many countries. When Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister in the 1980s and the late R.N.Kao was her Senior Adviser, some officers of the IB and the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) were got trained in negotiation techniques either in the UK or the US.
7.Negotiations, which are an essential part of the drill to deal with hostage situations, have two aspects---operational and psychological. The operational aspect is about giving time to the intelligence and security agencies to collect ground information in order to prepare themselves for physical intervention to rescue the hostages should such intervention become necessary or feasible.
8. The psychological aspect relates to exercising pressure on the insurgents or terrorists either directly or through intermediaries to release the hostages. India had been facing hostage situations since 1971 when two members of the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKJLF) hijacked a plane of the Indian Airlines to Lahore. All Governments in power when these incidents took place had negotiated with the hostage-takers either directly or through intermediaries. It is, therefore, pointless to say that no negotiations should be held. Such a position would be unwisely rigid and come in the way of operational flexibility.
9. It is more difficult to answer the second question---should the demands of the hostage-takers be conceded? The basic principle of all counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency doctrines is that the demands should not be conceded, come what may. While this principle is generally adhered to in most countries even at the risk of the hostages being killed, history of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency has instances where the demands were conceded for some reason or the other even by countries such as Israel or the US even though they openly did not admit so. In India itself, there were two controversial instances of the demands being conceded---- to secure the release of the daughter of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, the then Home Minister in the V.P. Singh Government, in 1989, and the release of some terrorists by the Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee in December 1999 to secure the release of an Indian Airlines Plane hijacked to Kandahar and its passengers. While the release of some terrorists to secure the release of the Mufti’s daughter was inexcusable, the release of some terrorists to secure the release of a large number of IAC passengers was understandable. Once the Vajpayee Government, through its mishandling of the situation, allowed the hijacked plane to leave the Indian airspace and go to Kandahar, it had only two options---either let the passengers die or concede the demands of the terrorists. Public reaction would have been strong had it allowed such a large number of civilians to be killed.
10. In the history of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency, there have been instances where States had rejected the demands of the hostage-takers even at the risk of the hostages being killed when the number of hostages was small and their deaths would not have caused strong public reaction. Examples: The action of the V.P.Singh Government in refusing to concede the demands of the terrorists who kidnapped the Vice-Chancellor of the Kashmir University and one of his staff members in 1990 resulting in their death; the refusal of the Narasimha Rao Government in 1995 to concede the demands of the Al Faran terrorists who had kidnapped five foreign tourists, one of whom managed to escape and the others were allegedly killed by the terrorists; and the refusal of the US and Pakistan Governments to concede the demands of the terrorists who had kidnapped Daniel Pearl, the US journalist, in 2002, which resulted in his death. While the deaths of the tourists in 1995 and of Pearl in 2002 due to the strong line taken by the Governments did not result in strong public reaction, the deaths of the Vice-Chancellor and his staff member did create strong public reaction since it came soon after the surrender by the V.P.Singh Government to the demands of the terrorists to secure the release of the daughter of the then Home Minister. In other hostage situations, the hostages were got released through psychological pressure on the hostages during prolonged negotiations.
11. The major mistake committed by the Orissa Government in dealing with the kidnapping of the District Collector and the Junior Engineer is that it would appear to have concluded at the very beginning of the situation that it had no other option but to concede the demands of the hostage-takers. As a result, the principal aim of the negotiations became not giving the intelligence and security agencies time to prepare the ground for a possible rescue mission, but to reach a compromise with the hostage-takers on their demands. Once the Maoists realized that the State Government had no stomach for prolonged negotiations or intervention to rescue the hostages, they stuck to all their demands and forced the Government to capitulate. The Government seemed to have capitulated without any exercise to identify the various operational and psychological options available to it. Even if the Government was mentally prepared to concede some of the demands in order to save the lives of two dedicated public servants, it could have explored the option of conceding those demands of the Maoists relating to the welfare and grievances of the local people and rejecting those demands which could affect the counter-insurgency operations. It did not do so. It just capitulated without even seeming resistance to the demands of the Maoists. This is likely to affect adversely the effectiveness of future counter-insurgency operations in the State. (27-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, February 26, 2011
INDIA & THE INDIAN OCEAN
B.RAMAN
( Based on a talk delivered by me at a seminar on the Indian Ocean at Bangalore on February 26,2010. It was jointly organized by the Asia Centre, Bangalore, and the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi )
The main security threats to Indian interests in the Indian Ocean area arise from three factors---firstly, the gradual erosion of the Indian political influence in the area; secondly, the increase in the Chinese presence in the area; and thirdly, the uncontrolled activities of the Somali pirates.
2.Nowhere is the erosion of the Indian political influence more evident than in Sri Lanka where despite our assistance to the Government of Sri Lanka in its successful counter-insurgency operations against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) we have not been able to protect either the interests of the Sri Lankan Tamils or the lives and livelihood of Indian Tamil fishermen, who have been repeatedly at the mercy of the Sri Lankan Navy.
3. Our repeated pleas for finding an early political solution to the grievances of the Sri Lankan Tamils and for stopping attacks---some of them brutal and fatal--- on Indian Tamil fishermen have had no impact on the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Rajapaksa, while pretending to be sensitive to Indian interests, has been ignoring them without any fear of the likely consequences. He has no fear because he is confident that there will be no consequences. India’s core interests in the region to the south of India have been repeatedly ignored by Rajapaksa.
4. Our dilemma in Sri Lanka underlines the hard reality that having a strong Navy alone would not be sufficient to make our core interests prevail in the Indian Ocean region. There has to be a political courage and will to use our naval strength in support of our core interests. In the absence of such courage and will, the ships of our Navy will remain not a powerful arm of the Indian State ready to go into action if our core interests are threatened, but mere oceanic curios, exhibited in public and admired, but not feared.
5.The negative state of affairs that we are confronted with in Sri Lanka today could be repeated in the Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles in the years-if not months-- to come if the Indian political leadership is not more assertive in protecting Indian interests in these Island countries.
6. Fortunately, in the Maldives, the Indian interests still prevail despite an increase in political and economic contacts between China and the Maldives. The Government of Maldives continues to look up to India for strengthening its capacity for meeting threats to its security, which presently mostly arise from non-State actors such as Pakistan-based jihadi elements and the Somali pirates. It is still attentive to Indian interests in the area.
7. So is the case in Seychelles. Despite the Chinese offer of help to Seychelles for strengthening its anti-piracy capabilities, which its has accepted, the Government of Seychelles continues to be as receptive to Indian offers of assistance and co-operation as it was before.
8. However, one has reasons to be concerned over recent developments in Mauritius since the visit of President Hu Jintao of China to Port Louis in February,2009. During his visit, China announced a credit at low interest of US $ 260 million to Mauritius to modernize and expand its airport. He said that trade between the two countries had increased by 11.7 per cent during 2008 to reach US $ 323 million. He also announced an interest-free loan of US $ 5.9 million and a grant of 30 million yuan ( about US $ 5 million ). Mauritian Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam said that the two countries had discussed possible further assistance to improve transport in and out of the island's congested capital.
9.Hu pledged to speed up the construction of the China-funded $730 million Economic and Trade Zone north of the capital. The Tianli project, as it is called, will be the largest single foreign-funded project in Mauritius creating about 40,000 jobs. Between the recognition of China by Mauritius in 1972 and Hu’s visit in February 2009, the total value of the Chinese assistance to Mauritius amounted to US $ 117 million. The fresh assistance extended since then has crossed US $ one billion--- an almost ten-fold increase. Thirteen Chinese companies operate in Mauritius in the textiles, construction and IT sectors.
10.The 521-acre economic and trade zone is an important part of what China calls the “going out” policy and its Africa strategy. The objective is to use Mauritius as a platform for servicing its construction and business projects in Southern Africa. The corporate headquarters of Chinese companies operating in Southern Africa are expected to be located in the new commercial city which China will construct outside Port Louis under this project. The zone with a modern Chinese-styled city is being built by a consortium consisting of the Shanxi Tianli Enterprise Co., Ltd., the state-controlled Shanxi Coking Coal Group Co. Ltd and the Taiyuan Iron & Steel Group Co. Ltd. The idea seems to be to convert Mauritius into a Singapore of Southern Africa to serve China’s Africa strategy. Since Mauritius does not have enough skilled workers to meet the requirements of the Chinese-aided projects, it has allowed China to bring its own nationals to work in these projects. As a result, about 50 per cent of Mauritius’ foreign labour force could be Chinese. There could be more Chinese than Indians working in Mauritius.
11.The corporate city being built by the Chinese will compete with the Ebene Cyber City constructed with Indian assistance. Huawei, the Chinese IT company, reportedly operates from the Cyber City. It provides financial services to Chinese companies in Southern Africa.
12.In an article titled “China makes foray into Mauritius” published on January 25,2010, the “Financial Times” of London wrote: “China’s state-led approach to foreign investment is muscling India aside in its traditional “backyard” by investing $700m in a special economic zone in the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius to service Beijing’s expansion in Africa. Ramakrishna Sithanen, the vice-prime minister of Mauritius and minister of finance, said China was “extremely aggressively” pursuing its objectives in Africa via Mauritius with a wave of strategic investments on the island. He said China’s “different approach”, which forcefully combined business and government interests, was in contrast to India’s more fragmented style that had less backing from the state. So strong was his government’s relationship with Beijing that he said the island had been able to call on the personal intervention of Hu Jintao, China’s president, to sort out problems. China’s participation in Mauritius is a key part of the island’s diversification away from a sugar cane and tourism economy into logistics, information technology and financial services. There are plans to build a logistics and services hub in the economic zone, together with a university and an oceanographic research centre. Mr Sithanen said the Mauritian government had secured China’s consent that the economic zone would not be exclusively for Chinese companies but could be used by others seeking to invest in the region.”
13. Having seen the gradual erosion of the Indian political influence in Sri Lanka, we are now seeing a similar erosion in Mauritius It used to be under Indian cultural and economic influence. It continues to be under the Indian cultural influence, but the economic influence is more and more Chinese. As the Chinese economic influence grows, so will its political influence. In protecting one’s core interests, it is the economic and political influence that matters and not the cultural influence.
14. The gradual decline in our political and economic influence in the Indian Ocean region---whether we admit it or not--- has been accompanied by a steady increase in the Chinese onshore presence in the countries of this region--- mainly for helping these countries in developing their infrastructure--- an airport and an economic and trade city in Mauritius, a commercial port and an international airport in Hambantota in Sri Lanka, expansion and modernization of the Colombo port, road and rail repairs and construction in others parts of Sri Lanka, construction of a new port at Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, gas and oil pipelines connecting Kyaukpyu and Yunnan so that gas and oil produced locally and coming by tankers from West Asia and Africa could be moved to Yunnan without having to pass the Malacca Strait and construction of a rapid rail system connecting Rangoon (Yangon) with Yunnan. Talks are on with Bangladesh for Chinese assistance in the modernization of the Chittagong port and for connecting the rail systems of Bangladesh and Myanmar. China is the largest foreign investor in Mynmar today, with the total value of actual and promised investments already touching US $ three billion.
15. For expanding and strengthening its political and economic influence in the Indian Ocean region China has two precious assets which India is not in a position to match now and will not be in a position to match in the foreseeable future---- its vast cash reserves and its vastly superior infrastructure construction skills. There is a hunger for the development of the infrastructure in all these counties. When these countries think of expanding and modernizing their infrastructure, they think of China first and only then of India.
16. Even the best of Navies with a vast reach in the Indian Ocean region will be only of limited use in the absence of commensurate political and economic influence in the countries of the Ocean region. In building up its onshore presence and influence, China has taken a head-start over India. The Chinese Navy still cannot match and will not be in a position to match the off-shore presence of our Navy in the Indian Ocean area, but Beijing’s onshore presence and influence will pose increasing challenges to the Indian political leadership and diplomacy.
17.Periodic reports of a speculative nature regarding a Chinese interest in the acquisition of military base ---particularly naval---base--- facilities in the Indian Ocean region have not been corroborated. The present Chinese interest is in strengthening their economic presence in this area. When the economic presence goes up, political influence automatically goes up. Yes, the Chinese have been developing a robust military supply relationship of a strategic nature with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. One could see the beginnings of such a relationship with Bangladesh too. Do these relationships form part of a well thought-out strategy to acquire a permanent military presence in this area? There is no evidence at present in support of such a suspicion. The Chinese focus is on establishing a strong economic presence and through that a strong political influence. Their willingness to enter into military supply and capacity-building relationships with the countries of this region is a tactical move to strengthen their economic and political influence.
18 The Chinese have been taking care to prevent their growing on-shore influence in this area from being seen as a carefully calculated move to undermine the Indian influence. They project their moves as not inspired by a larger Indian Ocean strategy, but merely as responses to requests for assistance received from the countries of this region. Whether the Chinese are making calculated moves to undermine the Indian influence or not, the net effect will be an undermining of the Indian influence
19. The present Chinese focus is on the Pacific. Their efforts are concentrated towards building a strong Pacific presence for their Navy and Air Force so as to be able to counter the US presence and achieve parity with it. Building an equal Indian Ocean presence is not yet part of their short or medium term strategy. They are not in a position to achieve parity with the Indian Ocean presence of the US and India. I do not visualize a Chinese threat to the naval presence of the US and India in the short and medium terms.
20. Compared to their Pacific naval strategy, there is very little debate in China on the contours of an Indian Ocean strategy. They do not have the required material resources to be able to challenge the prominence presently enjoyed by the US and Indian Navies in the Indian Ocean region. Their interests are presently focused on protecting the security of their energy supplies and keeping Pakistan propped up as a credible threat to India.
21. The entry of Chinese naval ships on anti-piracy patrols into the Indian Ocean region and the Gulf of Aden has not created any adverse reactions in the region or in the West. The Chinese concerns over the growing threats from the Somali pirates to their ships and crew are accepted by the countries of the region and the West as natural. The regular anti-piracy patrols undertaken by ships of the Chinese Navy in this area ,without causing any regional concerns, have enabled the Chinese Navy to familiarize itself with operating conditions and difficulties in the waters of this region, build up Navy-Navy relationships and offer Chinese assistance in capacity-building.
22. Should their anti-piracy forays be used as the initial building block for a long-term Indian Ocean strategy? The Chinese are avoiding any open discussion on this question lest they give rise to unnecessary concerns in the region about Chinese naval assertiveness in the Indian Ocean region as a follow-up to their assertiveness in the Pacific. Occasional voices are heard from the community of retired Chinese naval officers on the need for a naval base in this region to meet the logistics and rest and recreation requirements of their anti-piracy patrols, but such voices have been discouraged by the Government and party leadership to prevent undue concerns. A long-term Chinese naval strategy for the Indian Ocean region is not yet in the making.
23. In working out an Indian strategy for the Indian Ocean region, the political, economic and naval aspects have to receive equal attention. So too the aspect of the Indian and US Navies co-operating with each other to maintain their present primacy in this region. Working out a national Indian Ocean Region strategy should go hand in hand with working out a joint Indo-US strategy to safeguard their interests in the Indian Ocean region. (26-2-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( Based on a talk delivered by me at a seminar on the Indian Ocean at Bangalore on February 26,2010. It was jointly organized by the Asia Centre, Bangalore, and the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi )
The main security threats to Indian interests in the Indian Ocean area arise from three factors---firstly, the gradual erosion of the Indian political influence in the area; secondly, the increase in the Chinese presence in the area; and thirdly, the uncontrolled activities of the Somali pirates.
2.Nowhere is the erosion of the Indian political influence more evident than in Sri Lanka where despite our assistance to the Government of Sri Lanka in its successful counter-insurgency operations against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) we have not been able to protect either the interests of the Sri Lankan Tamils or the lives and livelihood of Indian Tamil fishermen, who have been repeatedly at the mercy of the Sri Lankan Navy.
3. Our repeated pleas for finding an early political solution to the grievances of the Sri Lankan Tamils and for stopping attacks---some of them brutal and fatal--- on Indian Tamil fishermen have had no impact on the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Rajapaksa, while pretending to be sensitive to Indian interests, has been ignoring them without any fear of the likely consequences. He has no fear because he is confident that there will be no consequences. India’s core interests in the region to the south of India have been repeatedly ignored by Rajapaksa.
4. Our dilemma in Sri Lanka underlines the hard reality that having a strong Navy alone would not be sufficient to make our core interests prevail in the Indian Ocean region. There has to be a political courage and will to use our naval strength in support of our core interests. In the absence of such courage and will, the ships of our Navy will remain not a powerful arm of the Indian State ready to go into action if our core interests are threatened, but mere oceanic curios, exhibited in public and admired, but not feared.
5.The negative state of affairs that we are confronted with in Sri Lanka today could be repeated in the Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles in the years-if not months-- to come if the Indian political leadership is not more assertive in protecting Indian interests in these Island countries.
6. Fortunately, in the Maldives, the Indian interests still prevail despite an increase in political and economic contacts between China and the Maldives. The Government of Maldives continues to look up to India for strengthening its capacity for meeting threats to its security, which presently mostly arise from non-State actors such as Pakistan-based jihadi elements and the Somali pirates. It is still attentive to Indian interests in the area.
7. So is the case in Seychelles. Despite the Chinese offer of help to Seychelles for strengthening its anti-piracy capabilities, which its has accepted, the Government of Seychelles continues to be as receptive to Indian offers of assistance and co-operation as it was before.
8. However, one has reasons to be concerned over recent developments in Mauritius since the visit of President Hu Jintao of China to Port Louis in February,2009. During his visit, China announced a credit at low interest of US $ 260 million to Mauritius to modernize and expand its airport. He said that trade between the two countries had increased by 11.7 per cent during 2008 to reach US $ 323 million. He also announced an interest-free loan of US $ 5.9 million and a grant of 30 million yuan ( about US $ 5 million ). Mauritian Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam said that the two countries had discussed possible further assistance to improve transport in and out of the island's congested capital.
9.Hu pledged to speed up the construction of the China-funded $730 million Economic and Trade Zone north of the capital. The Tianli project, as it is called, will be the largest single foreign-funded project in Mauritius creating about 40,000 jobs. Between the recognition of China by Mauritius in 1972 and Hu’s visit in February 2009, the total value of the Chinese assistance to Mauritius amounted to US $ 117 million. The fresh assistance extended since then has crossed US $ one billion--- an almost ten-fold increase. Thirteen Chinese companies operate in Mauritius in the textiles, construction and IT sectors.
10.The 521-acre economic and trade zone is an important part of what China calls the “going out” policy and its Africa strategy. The objective is to use Mauritius as a platform for servicing its construction and business projects in Southern Africa. The corporate headquarters of Chinese companies operating in Southern Africa are expected to be located in the new commercial city which China will construct outside Port Louis under this project. The zone with a modern Chinese-styled city is being built by a consortium consisting of the Shanxi Tianli Enterprise Co., Ltd., the state-controlled Shanxi Coking Coal Group Co. Ltd and the Taiyuan Iron & Steel Group Co. Ltd. The idea seems to be to convert Mauritius into a Singapore of Southern Africa to serve China’s Africa strategy. Since Mauritius does not have enough skilled workers to meet the requirements of the Chinese-aided projects, it has allowed China to bring its own nationals to work in these projects. As a result, about 50 per cent of Mauritius’ foreign labour force could be Chinese. There could be more Chinese than Indians working in Mauritius.
11.The corporate city being built by the Chinese will compete with the Ebene Cyber City constructed with Indian assistance. Huawei, the Chinese IT company, reportedly operates from the Cyber City. It provides financial services to Chinese companies in Southern Africa.
12.In an article titled “China makes foray into Mauritius” published on January 25,2010, the “Financial Times” of London wrote: “China’s state-led approach to foreign investment is muscling India aside in its traditional “backyard” by investing $700m in a special economic zone in the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius to service Beijing’s expansion in Africa. Ramakrishna Sithanen, the vice-prime minister of Mauritius and minister of finance, said China was “extremely aggressively” pursuing its objectives in Africa via Mauritius with a wave of strategic investments on the island. He said China’s “different approach”, which forcefully combined business and government interests, was in contrast to India’s more fragmented style that had less backing from the state. So strong was his government’s relationship with Beijing that he said the island had been able to call on the personal intervention of Hu Jintao, China’s president, to sort out problems. China’s participation in Mauritius is a key part of the island’s diversification away from a sugar cane and tourism economy into logistics, information technology and financial services. There are plans to build a logistics and services hub in the economic zone, together with a university and an oceanographic research centre. Mr Sithanen said the Mauritian government had secured China’s consent that the economic zone would not be exclusively for Chinese companies but could be used by others seeking to invest in the region.”
13. Having seen the gradual erosion of the Indian political influence in Sri Lanka, we are now seeing a similar erosion in Mauritius It used to be under Indian cultural and economic influence. It continues to be under the Indian cultural influence, but the economic influence is more and more Chinese. As the Chinese economic influence grows, so will its political influence. In protecting one’s core interests, it is the economic and political influence that matters and not the cultural influence.
14. The gradual decline in our political and economic influence in the Indian Ocean region---whether we admit it or not--- has been accompanied by a steady increase in the Chinese onshore presence in the countries of this region--- mainly for helping these countries in developing their infrastructure--- an airport and an economic and trade city in Mauritius, a commercial port and an international airport in Hambantota in Sri Lanka, expansion and modernization of the Colombo port, road and rail repairs and construction in others parts of Sri Lanka, construction of a new port at Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, gas and oil pipelines connecting Kyaukpyu and Yunnan so that gas and oil produced locally and coming by tankers from West Asia and Africa could be moved to Yunnan without having to pass the Malacca Strait and construction of a rapid rail system connecting Rangoon (Yangon) with Yunnan. Talks are on with Bangladesh for Chinese assistance in the modernization of the Chittagong port and for connecting the rail systems of Bangladesh and Myanmar. China is the largest foreign investor in Mynmar today, with the total value of actual and promised investments already touching US $ three billion.
15. For expanding and strengthening its political and economic influence in the Indian Ocean region China has two precious assets which India is not in a position to match now and will not be in a position to match in the foreseeable future---- its vast cash reserves and its vastly superior infrastructure construction skills. There is a hunger for the development of the infrastructure in all these counties. When these countries think of expanding and modernizing their infrastructure, they think of China first and only then of India.
16. Even the best of Navies with a vast reach in the Indian Ocean region will be only of limited use in the absence of commensurate political and economic influence in the countries of the Ocean region. In building up its onshore presence and influence, China has taken a head-start over India. The Chinese Navy still cannot match and will not be in a position to match the off-shore presence of our Navy in the Indian Ocean area, but Beijing’s onshore presence and influence will pose increasing challenges to the Indian political leadership and diplomacy.
17.Periodic reports of a speculative nature regarding a Chinese interest in the acquisition of military base ---particularly naval---base--- facilities in the Indian Ocean region have not been corroborated. The present Chinese interest is in strengthening their economic presence in this area. When the economic presence goes up, political influence automatically goes up. Yes, the Chinese have been developing a robust military supply relationship of a strategic nature with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. One could see the beginnings of such a relationship with Bangladesh too. Do these relationships form part of a well thought-out strategy to acquire a permanent military presence in this area? There is no evidence at present in support of such a suspicion. The Chinese focus is on establishing a strong economic presence and through that a strong political influence. Their willingness to enter into military supply and capacity-building relationships with the countries of this region is a tactical move to strengthen their economic and political influence.
18 The Chinese have been taking care to prevent their growing on-shore influence in this area from being seen as a carefully calculated move to undermine the Indian influence. They project their moves as not inspired by a larger Indian Ocean strategy, but merely as responses to requests for assistance received from the countries of this region. Whether the Chinese are making calculated moves to undermine the Indian influence or not, the net effect will be an undermining of the Indian influence
19. The present Chinese focus is on the Pacific. Their efforts are concentrated towards building a strong Pacific presence for their Navy and Air Force so as to be able to counter the US presence and achieve parity with it. Building an equal Indian Ocean presence is not yet part of their short or medium term strategy. They are not in a position to achieve parity with the Indian Ocean presence of the US and India. I do not visualize a Chinese threat to the naval presence of the US and India in the short and medium terms.
20. Compared to their Pacific naval strategy, there is very little debate in China on the contours of an Indian Ocean strategy. They do not have the required material resources to be able to challenge the prominence presently enjoyed by the US and Indian Navies in the Indian Ocean region. Their interests are presently focused on protecting the security of their energy supplies and keeping Pakistan propped up as a credible threat to India.
21. The entry of Chinese naval ships on anti-piracy patrols into the Indian Ocean region and the Gulf of Aden has not created any adverse reactions in the region or in the West. The Chinese concerns over the growing threats from the Somali pirates to their ships and crew are accepted by the countries of the region and the West as natural. The regular anti-piracy patrols undertaken by ships of the Chinese Navy in this area ,without causing any regional concerns, have enabled the Chinese Navy to familiarize itself with operating conditions and difficulties in the waters of this region, build up Navy-Navy relationships and offer Chinese assistance in capacity-building.
22. Should their anti-piracy forays be used as the initial building block for a long-term Indian Ocean strategy? The Chinese are avoiding any open discussion on this question lest they give rise to unnecessary concerns in the region about Chinese naval assertiveness in the Indian Ocean region as a follow-up to their assertiveness in the Pacific. Occasional voices are heard from the community of retired Chinese naval officers on the need for a naval base in this region to meet the logistics and rest and recreation requirements of their anti-piracy patrols, but such voices have been discouraged by the Government and party leadership to prevent undue concerns. A long-term Chinese naval strategy for the Indian Ocean region is not yet in the making.
23. In working out an Indian strategy for the Indian Ocean region, the political, economic and naval aspects have to receive equal attention. So too the aspect of the Indian and US Navies co-operating with each other to maintain their present primacy in this region. Working out a national Indian Ocean Region strategy should go hand in hand with working out a joint Indo-US strategy to safeguard their interests in the Indian Ocean region. (26-2-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
CHINA: WILL IT CROSS THE RUBICON OF ITS HISTORY?
B.RAMAN
The seriousness with which China has been viewing the dangers of a new revolution in China inspired by the people's uprising in Egypt would be evident from the number of high-level meetings---some of them attended by President Hu Jintao himself--- that have been held in Beijing under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party and the Government to discuss how to preserve social harmony and stability. Repeated calls are being made for better social management.
2. Unfortunately, in their view as expressed at these meetings, better social management does not mean a greater political liberalisation, but more effective controls over freedom of expression. However, the need to give the people an opportunity to let out steam is grudgingly recognised, but the leadership is confused as to how to do this. Appeals are being made through media outlets such as the party-controlled "Global Times" for greater political maturity. By greater political maturity, one means a greater willingness on the part of the people to recognise that there cannot be social harmony and stability without internal discipline and that the party and the Government have a legitimate obligation to maintain discipline.
3. The role of the Internet in encouraging a new youth-led revolution different from the proletariat-led revolution of the USSR and the peasant-led revolution of China has made the Chinese leaders realise with concern the stealth power of the Internet. China has greater Internet penetration than any other country in the Asian-African region. It has a larger community of Netizens than even India. Chinese leaders and security agencies are well-versed in controlling old means of public expression such as the print media, the radio and the TV. They thought they could control with equal effectiveness the new stealth power of the Internet. They have started apprehending that they may not be able to do so and that a danger to their social stability could arise from the inexorablty growing community of Netizens.
4. Stopping the growth of this community is no longer feasible. Before someone else seeks to mobilise this community for promoting a new revolution, the Government should mobilise it to ensure the maintenance of stability and harmony. How to do this? That is the question being discussed at these meetings. It is being pointed out that there cannot be better social management without better Internet management. The security agencies are being advised to pay greater attention to this.
5. Mao Zedong believed that power grows out of the barrel of the gun. Deng Xiao-ping believed that power grows out of the money purse. The present Chinese leadership has realised that youth power grows out of the Internet. How to make the Internet an engine for gradual, controlled political change while maintaining stability instead of becoming an engine for a new Revolution?
6. How will the Chinese community of Netizens respond to the suble attempts being made by the Party and the Government to maintain and further strengthen Internet management ostensiblty for preserving the vast economic gains made by the country since 1978? The answer to this question will determine how far and for how long internal peace, stability and harmony as defined by the party can be maintained.
7. A new youth, Netizen led revolution may be in the offing in China. Will it suddenly burst out as did the revolution in Egypt or will it be creeping and inexorable? Let us wait and watch.
8. I am annexing an editorial of significance carried by the Party-controlled "Global Times" and an article of interest carried by the Government-controlled "China Daily" in this regard. ( 24-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
EDITORIAL CARRIED BY THE "GLOBAL TIMES" ON FEBRUARY 21,2011
China's rise requires maturity from citizens
The central government has attached great importance to modern public governance. But the improvement of its public governance also relies on the proactive participation of people from all walks of life. The maintenance of social stability calls for cooperation by the public, especially from elites.
With a population of 1.3 billion, China is a big power that is experiencing the convergence of various social problems.
No matter how rapidly its economy and society develop, it is inevitable that many grass-roots appeals will not be addressed in the short term. China's rise is going to be accompanied by complaints among the general public, and even some elites.
Due to the spread of mobile phones, the Internet and microblogs, it is fairly easy for someone to publish criticism and cause a flow of complaints. Similarly, it costs nothing to draw attention by doing something sensational. In comparison, it is one of the hardest projects in the world to mould a society into a stable platform that facilitates life for those pursuing happiness.
Many believe that China will emerge from its period of social transformation in a steady and peaceful manner. But in theory, it is not totally unfeasible that the nation could fall into social turmoil should its public governance fail.
It is the responsibility of every patriot to cooperate with the government's social management efforts and help craft sustainable social stability.
Int e l l e c tua l s should set an example in this regard. Some argue that their mission is to criticize. Such a perspective is one-sided, and even becomes an excuse for irresponsible elements.
In recent years, a few Chinese have always challenged public governance and national stability. This goes counter to the major goals of China in the 21st century.
Three decades of reform and opening-up has enabled China to become the world's second largest economy. The nation has set itself the goal of growing into a modern country governed by political democracy. It just needs several more decades to realize this ambition.
China's intellectuals, especially those with the power of discourse and various social resources, should contribute to social stability, rather than undermine them by encouraging trouble.
China's national rejuvenation has been a dream for generations of people with lofty ideals. The 21st century may witness the realization of the dream. All of Chinese society must maintain social cohesion by allowing the country to develop.
China is bound to progress as an imperfect nation. It has many problems. Nevertheless, none of them should become an excuse to challenge social governance.
REPORT OF FEBRUARY 24,2011, CARRIED BY THE "CHINA DAILY"
China ratchets up moves to aid harmony, stability
February 24, 2011
China will take stronger action to resolve social conflicts and ensure there is a harmonious and stable society, says a senior official in charge of public security affairs.
Chen Jiping, deputy director of the Central Committee for Comprehensive Management of Public Security, made the comment after repeated calls from the nation's leaders for enhanced social management and innovations to resolve such problems.
In the Monday issue of the Beijing-based magazine Outlook Weekly, Chen noted social conflicts were "prominent" and said so-called mass incidents were "frequent occurrences".
He attributed such problems to imbalanced and uncoordinated development that has led to differences between urban and rural areas and to a wide income gap.
"Because social management and services are lagging behind social development, we may frequently face social conflicts," he said.
Chen also listed specific security problems that "we cannot afford to ignore".
"Various conflicts frequently occur in certain regions," he said. "They mainly involve land seizures, corporate reforms, labor disputes, medical disputes and occasionally lead to mass incidents and extremism."
In July 2009, a senior executive was beaten to death when 3,000 steel workers who had been threatened with job cuts protested following the takeover of their company in Tonghua, Jilin province.
And in September 2010, three members of a family surnamed Zhong doused themselves in gasoline and set themselves ablaze to protest the forced demolition of their home in Yihuang county, Jiangxi province. One died and two were seriously injured. The local Party secretary, the governor, a vice-governor in charge of the demolition and other responsible officials were later investigated and removed from office.
Chen said the resolution of social conflicts and the safeguarding of social security "would not only be a key task for political and legal leaders this year but remain a very difficult and onerous task during the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)."
His comments were published days after President Hu Jintao said the country was "still at a stage where many social conflicts are likely to arise". He said: "There are still many problems with China's social management" despite its remarkable development.
At a high-profile seminar on Saturday, Hu urged provincial and ministerial-level officials to recognize the significance of improving and innovating social management as a prerequisite to pushing forward with the country's development and building a harmonious society.
Zhan Zhongle, a professor in administrative law at Peking University, told China Daily it was a "positive sign for the authorities to face social conflicts directly, rather than simply shunning them".
"Ignoring people's concerns will leave them no other option but to complain through letters and visits or resort to extreme actions," Zhan said. "Integrating the resources of the government and judicial bodies to mediate conflicts is more efficient in stabilizing the society."
According to Chen, social management has been set as a key index in the assessment of the performance of government and Party leaders.
Chen told the magazine that a risk assessment of threats to social stability should take place before any decisions are made on major projects and policies.
"We shall not allow inappropriate decision-making to cause social conflicts," he said.
Professional mediation organizations will be established or enhanced to play a bigger role in resolving conflicts in sectors such as demolitions, labor disputes, medical disputes and for food and drug safety.
And more efforts will be made to investigate cases exposed by whistleblowers, with special attention given to prominent problems affecting social stability, he said.
Chen also vowed to further crack down on gangs, violent crimes and property-related crimes.
By Wang Huazhong, China Daily
The seriousness with which China has been viewing the dangers of a new revolution in China inspired by the people's uprising in Egypt would be evident from the number of high-level meetings---some of them attended by President Hu Jintao himself--- that have been held in Beijing under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party and the Government to discuss how to preserve social harmony and stability. Repeated calls are being made for better social management.
2. Unfortunately, in their view as expressed at these meetings, better social management does not mean a greater political liberalisation, but more effective controls over freedom of expression. However, the need to give the people an opportunity to let out steam is grudgingly recognised, but the leadership is confused as to how to do this. Appeals are being made through media outlets such as the party-controlled "Global Times" for greater political maturity. By greater political maturity, one means a greater willingness on the part of the people to recognise that there cannot be social harmony and stability without internal discipline and that the party and the Government have a legitimate obligation to maintain discipline.
3. The role of the Internet in encouraging a new youth-led revolution different from the proletariat-led revolution of the USSR and the peasant-led revolution of China has made the Chinese leaders realise with concern the stealth power of the Internet. China has greater Internet penetration than any other country in the Asian-African region. It has a larger community of Netizens than even India. Chinese leaders and security agencies are well-versed in controlling old means of public expression such as the print media, the radio and the TV. They thought they could control with equal effectiveness the new stealth power of the Internet. They have started apprehending that they may not be able to do so and that a danger to their social stability could arise from the inexorablty growing community of Netizens.
4. Stopping the growth of this community is no longer feasible. Before someone else seeks to mobilise this community for promoting a new revolution, the Government should mobilise it to ensure the maintenance of stability and harmony. How to do this? That is the question being discussed at these meetings. It is being pointed out that there cannot be better social management without better Internet management. The security agencies are being advised to pay greater attention to this.
5. Mao Zedong believed that power grows out of the barrel of the gun. Deng Xiao-ping believed that power grows out of the money purse. The present Chinese leadership has realised that youth power grows out of the Internet. How to make the Internet an engine for gradual, controlled political change while maintaining stability instead of becoming an engine for a new Revolution?
6. How will the Chinese community of Netizens respond to the suble attempts being made by the Party and the Government to maintain and further strengthen Internet management ostensiblty for preserving the vast economic gains made by the country since 1978? The answer to this question will determine how far and for how long internal peace, stability and harmony as defined by the party can be maintained.
7. A new youth, Netizen led revolution may be in the offing in China. Will it suddenly burst out as did the revolution in Egypt or will it be creeping and inexorable? Let us wait and watch.
8. I am annexing an editorial of significance carried by the Party-controlled "Global Times" and an article of interest carried by the Government-controlled "China Daily" in this regard. ( 24-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
EDITORIAL CARRIED BY THE "GLOBAL TIMES" ON FEBRUARY 21,2011
China's rise requires maturity from citizens
The central government has attached great importance to modern public governance. But the improvement of its public governance also relies on the proactive participation of people from all walks of life. The maintenance of social stability calls for cooperation by the public, especially from elites.
With a population of 1.3 billion, China is a big power that is experiencing the convergence of various social problems.
No matter how rapidly its economy and society develop, it is inevitable that many grass-roots appeals will not be addressed in the short term. China's rise is going to be accompanied by complaints among the general public, and even some elites.
Due to the spread of mobile phones, the Internet and microblogs, it is fairly easy for someone to publish criticism and cause a flow of complaints. Similarly, it costs nothing to draw attention by doing something sensational. In comparison, it is one of the hardest projects in the world to mould a society into a stable platform that facilitates life for those pursuing happiness.
Many believe that China will emerge from its period of social transformation in a steady and peaceful manner. But in theory, it is not totally unfeasible that the nation could fall into social turmoil should its public governance fail.
It is the responsibility of every patriot to cooperate with the government's social management efforts and help craft sustainable social stability.
Int e l l e c tua l s should set an example in this regard. Some argue that their mission is to criticize. Such a perspective is one-sided, and even becomes an excuse for irresponsible elements.
In recent years, a few Chinese have always challenged public governance and national stability. This goes counter to the major goals of China in the 21st century.
Three decades of reform and opening-up has enabled China to become the world's second largest economy. The nation has set itself the goal of growing into a modern country governed by political democracy. It just needs several more decades to realize this ambition.
China's intellectuals, especially those with the power of discourse and various social resources, should contribute to social stability, rather than undermine them by encouraging trouble.
China's national rejuvenation has been a dream for generations of people with lofty ideals. The 21st century may witness the realization of the dream. All of Chinese society must maintain social cohesion by allowing the country to develop.
China is bound to progress as an imperfect nation. It has many problems. Nevertheless, none of them should become an excuse to challenge social governance.
REPORT OF FEBRUARY 24,2011, CARRIED BY THE "CHINA DAILY"
China ratchets up moves to aid harmony, stability
February 24, 2011
China will take stronger action to resolve social conflicts and ensure there is a harmonious and stable society, says a senior official in charge of public security affairs.
Chen Jiping, deputy director of the Central Committee for Comprehensive Management of Public Security, made the comment after repeated calls from the nation's leaders for enhanced social management and innovations to resolve such problems.
In the Monday issue of the Beijing-based magazine Outlook Weekly, Chen noted social conflicts were "prominent" and said so-called mass incidents were "frequent occurrences".
He attributed such problems to imbalanced and uncoordinated development that has led to differences between urban and rural areas and to a wide income gap.
"Because social management and services are lagging behind social development, we may frequently face social conflicts," he said.
Chen also listed specific security problems that "we cannot afford to ignore".
"Various conflicts frequently occur in certain regions," he said. "They mainly involve land seizures, corporate reforms, labor disputes, medical disputes and occasionally lead to mass incidents and extremism."
In July 2009, a senior executive was beaten to death when 3,000 steel workers who had been threatened with job cuts protested following the takeover of their company in Tonghua, Jilin province.
And in September 2010, three members of a family surnamed Zhong doused themselves in gasoline and set themselves ablaze to protest the forced demolition of their home in Yihuang county, Jiangxi province. One died and two were seriously injured. The local Party secretary, the governor, a vice-governor in charge of the demolition and other responsible officials were later investigated and removed from office.
Chen said the resolution of social conflicts and the safeguarding of social security "would not only be a key task for political and legal leaders this year but remain a very difficult and onerous task during the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)."
His comments were published days after President Hu Jintao said the country was "still at a stage where many social conflicts are likely to arise". He said: "There are still many problems with China's social management" despite its remarkable development.
At a high-profile seminar on Saturday, Hu urged provincial and ministerial-level officials to recognize the significance of improving and innovating social management as a prerequisite to pushing forward with the country's development and building a harmonious society.
Zhan Zhongle, a professor in administrative law at Peking University, told China Daily it was a "positive sign for the authorities to face social conflicts directly, rather than simply shunning them".
"Ignoring people's concerns will leave them no other option but to complain through letters and visits or resort to extreme actions," Zhan said. "Integrating the resources of the government and judicial bodies to mediate conflicts is more efficient in stabilizing the society."
According to Chen, social management has been set as a key index in the assessment of the performance of government and Party leaders.
Chen told the magazine that a risk assessment of threats to social stability should take place before any decisions are made on major projects and policies.
"We shall not allow inappropriate decision-making to cause social conflicts," he said.
Professional mediation organizations will be established or enhanced to play a bigger role in resolving conflicts in sectors such as demolitions, labor disputes, medical disputes and for food and drug safety.
And more efforts will be made to investigate cases exposed by whistleblowers, with special attention given to prominent problems affecting social stability, he said.
Chen also vowed to further crack down on gangs, violent crimes and property-related crimes.
By Wang Huazhong, China Daily
JUST MEMORIES
My dear Raman,
I have often wondered at the courage and fortitude you show in daily life since the discovery .Writing your morning piece with your first cuppa coffee as I once teased you .You are keeping up with life as if nothing has changed ,
Metaphorically what else can be described as not worrying about the end and having conquered the fear of death and death itself and fearlessly going on like a Karamyogi.
What a bench mark for others.
My salutations and respect to you .God bless you for as long a time as he can to keep you healthy and us daily well informed.
Warm personal regards Gajendra
Gajendra,
I was greatly touched.It is friends & well-wishers like you who have kept me going. And my interest in the subject and the love and loyalty of my readers---many if not most of them young.I will keep going for as long as I can.Take care, dear batch-mate. I still remember our working and drinking together in Paris in the days of the Emergency.Oh God, how much I used to drink those days! I could drink four large pegs of S & S, one or two glasses of wine and some Cognac and drive for 300 KMs anywhere in Europe without getting into an accident.Now I am allowed to drink only socially---not more than two large pegs on each social occasion.I miss my daily S & S.
Those were the days, my friend
I thought they never end.
I'll sing & dance
For ever every day,
I'll live the life I choose,
And always fight & never lose,
For I was young & sure to have my way.(Mary Hopkins,1968)
Those days are in the distant past.
With bags of affection. Raman
We have lived life we felt like living .You could some and more even when knees sank.No regrets .
We can have one more when you come here .
Cheers Gajendra
I have often wondered at the courage and fortitude you show in daily life since the discovery .Writing your morning piece with your first cuppa coffee as I once teased you .You are keeping up with life as if nothing has changed ,
Metaphorically what else can be described as not worrying about the end and having conquered the fear of death and death itself and fearlessly going on like a Karamyogi.
What a bench mark for others.
My salutations and respect to you .God bless you for as long a time as he can to keep you healthy and us daily well informed.
Warm personal regards Gajendra
Gajendra,
I was greatly touched.It is friends & well-wishers like you who have kept me going. And my interest in the subject and the love and loyalty of my readers---many if not most of them young.I will keep going for as long as I can.Take care, dear batch-mate. I still remember our working and drinking together in Paris in the days of the Emergency.Oh God, how much I used to drink those days! I could drink four large pegs of S & S, one or two glasses of wine and some Cognac and drive for 300 KMs anywhere in Europe without getting into an accident.Now I am allowed to drink only socially---not more than two large pegs on each social occasion.I miss my daily S & S.
Those were the days, my friend
I thought they never end.
I'll sing & dance
For ever every day,
I'll live the life I choose,
And always fight & never lose,
For I was young & sure to have my way.(Mary Hopkins,1968)
Those days are in the distant past.
With bags of affection. Raman
We have lived life we felt like living .You could some and more even when knees sank.No regrets .
We can have one more when you come here .
Cheers Gajendra
Monday, February 21, 2011
LIBYAN PROTESTERS ATTACK S.KOREAN & CHINESE COMPANIES
B.RAMAN
Resentment over the comfortable life-style of foreigners working in Libyan projects as compared to the poverty of Libyan workers seems to be playing a role in the current turmoil in Libya. This resentment has led to a number of attacks on South Korean and Chinese companies in Libya.
2. Even before the unrest began in Egypt, there were reports of attacks on South korean construction sites. On January 14 and 15, hundreds of Libyans raided four South Korean-run construction sites, destroying heavy equipment and setting vehicles and other facilities on fire. According to the South Korean Foreign Ministry, on February 21, about 500 Libyans stormed and looted a South Korean construction site west of Tripoli, injuring South Korean and Bangladeshi workers.It said about 15 Bangladeshis were hurt along with three South Koreans when the mob invaded the site about 30 kilometres west of Tripoli. Two of the Bangladeshis were seriously injured with stab wounds. After some time, the Libyans left the site, where 1600 Bangladeshis are reportedly working. It is not known whether the attacks on the Bangladeshis were motivated by economic reasons or by anger over reports of the Libyan Army using Pakistani and Bangladeshi mercenaries for crushing the uprising.
3. On February 17/18,about 200 Libyans in the eastern coastal town of Darnah invaded a South Korean-run construction site and set fire to a dormitory for Korean workers. According to the South Korean Foreign Ministry, the offices of some South Korean companies were looted on February 19. The Ministry said there are currently about 1,400 South Koreans in the country.
4. The February 22 issue of the "China Daily" has carried the following report of the Xinhua, the official news agency, datelined February 22, Tripoli:
"Several Chinese companies in Libya have been attacked and looted, but no casualties were reported yet, a Chinese worker here said Monday (February 21).
"A construction site run by Huafeng Construction Co., Ltd. from China's Zhejiang Province was looted by a group of armed gangsters Sunday afternoon in the eastern city of Agedabia, and nearly 1,000 Chinese workers there were forced out of the site and became homeless, said Yuan Canhua, a Chinese living in the suburb of Tripoli, capital city of Libya.
"The Chinese worker said one of the robbed construction workers phoned him after the looting.
"The construction workers then left the city on foot and were trying to walk towards Tripoli hundreds of kilometers away, hoping to catch a plane here to fly back to China, he said.
"Staff at the headquarters of the company in Zhejiang Province in south China said Monday the workers in Libya had been transferred to a safe place.
"Some Chinese workers here said nearly all Chinese companies in the country were "attacked or looted." But Chinese companies were not the sole target of the series of lootings in Libya. Several South Korean-run construction sites were also looted.
"Also on Monday, China's Ministry of Commerce urged Chinese businesses in Libya to pay increased attention to their security and suggested Chinese businessmen planning to visit Libya postpone their plans for the time being."
22-2-11
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Resentment over the comfortable life-style of foreigners working in Libyan projects as compared to the poverty of Libyan workers seems to be playing a role in the current turmoil in Libya. This resentment has led to a number of attacks on South Korean and Chinese companies in Libya.
2. Even before the unrest began in Egypt, there were reports of attacks on South korean construction sites. On January 14 and 15, hundreds of Libyans raided four South Korean-run construction sites, destroying heavy equipment and setting vehicles and other facilities on fire. According to the South Korean Foreign Ministry, on February 21, about 500 Libyans stormed and looted a South Korean construction site west of Tripoli, injuring South Korean and Bangladeshi workers.It said about 15 Bangladeshis were hurt along with three South Koreans when the mob invaded the site about 30 kilometres west of Tripoli. Two of the Bangladeshis were seriously injured with stab wounds. After some time, the Libyans left the site, where 1600 Bangladeshis are reportedly working. It is not known whether the attacks on the Bangladeshis were motivated by economic reasons or by anger over reports of the Libyan Army using Pakistani and Bangladeshi mercenaries for crushing the uprising.
3. On February 17/18,about 200 Libyans in the eastern coastal town of Darnah invaded a South Korean-run construction site and set fire to a dormitory for Korean workers. According to the South Korean Foreign Ministry, the offices of some South Korean companies were looted on February 19. The Ministry said there are currently about 1,400 South Koreans in the country.
4. The February 22 issue of the "China Daily" has carried the following report of the Xinhua, the official news agency, datelined February 22, Tripoli:
"Several Chinese companies in Libya have been attacked and looted, but no casualties were reported yet, a Chinese worker here said Monday (February 21).
"A construction site run by Huafeng Construction Co., Ltd. from China's Zhejiang Province was looted by a group of armed gangsters Sunday afternoon in the eastern city of Agedabia, and nearly 1,000 Chinese workers there were forced out of the site and became homeless, said Yuan Canhua, a Chinese living in the suburb of Tripoli, capital city of Libya.
"The Chinese worker said one of the robbed construction workers phoned him after the looting.
"The construction workers then left the city on foot and were trying to walk towards Tripoli hundreds of kilometers away, hoping to catch a plane here to fly back to China, he said.
"Staff at the headquarters of the company in Zhejiang Province in south China said Monday the workers in Libya had been transferred to a safe place.
"Some Chinese workers here said nearly all Chinese companies in the country were "attacked or looted." But Chinese companies were not the sole target of the series of lootings in Libya. Several South Korean-run construction sites were also looted.
"Also on Monday, China's Ministry of Commerce urged Chinese businesses in Libya to pay increased attention to their security and suggested Chinese businessmen planning to visit Libya postpone their plans for the time being."
22-2-11
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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