B.RAMAN
(From November 5,2008, President-elect Barrack Obama started receiving from the Director National Intelligence (DNI) a daily brief on thestate of the world the previous day called the President's Daily Brief (PDB). A background note on the PDB carried by the BBC online onNovember 6,2008, is annexed. The CIA would do well to incorporate the following in its PDB to Obama)
-------------------------------
There is amazement ---- and confusion--- in India over reports that one of the first acts of the President will be to appoint Bill Clinton as hisSpecial Envoy on the Kashmir issue to facilitate a settlement between India and Pakistan
2.Well-informed sources in India say that if the President-elect wants to severely damage the developing Indo-US relations he could nothave thought of a better idea than to meddle in Kashmir. So many Americans----Presidents, Presidents-elect and defeatedPresidential-aspirants---- thought they could help in finding a solution to the Kashmir issue and burnt their fingers and damaged Indo-USrelations.
3. This started from Adlai Stevenson, who after losing the election to Gen.Dwight Eisenhower, proceeded to Srinagar ostensibly for ahouseboat holiday on the Dal Lake and tried to meddle in the affairs of the State by suggesting to Sheikh Abdullah, the then Chief Minister ofJammu & Kashmir, that he should seek independence and promised that the US would support him. When the Indian Intelligence Bureauinformed Jawaharlal Nehru, the then Prime Minister, of Stevenson's secret discussions with Abdullah, he sacked Abdullah. Adlai Stevensonbecame persona non grata with the Indian political class and public.
4. When Clinton became the President in 1993 he could not resist the temptation to have a go at settling the Kashmir issue. He chose as hissecret emissary not a distinguished American, but an old college mate of his called Robin Raphael, who was posted as a junior diplomat inthe US Embassy in New Delhi. Her American colleagues in New Delhi used to allege that after Clinton took office, she used to go aroundprojecting herself as if she was a trusted adviser to Clinton, who took her into the State Department.
5. Our Indian sources say that she had two "achievements" to her discredit. She instigated the formation of the Hurriyat , a hotch-potch ofanti-New Delhi Kashmiri personalities, which added to the existing mess. She also encouraged the formation of the Taliban in 1994 with thehelp of her close personal friends Benazir Bhutto, the then Prime Minister, and Asif Ali Zardari, the present President of Pakistan. She evenmet Mullah Mohammad Omar, who subsequently designated himself as the Amir of the Taliban, secretly and sought his help for a project ofthe Unocal for a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via the Herat area of Afghanistan.
6. According to the sources, her misadventures in Kashmir further damaged Indo-US relations and her godmothering the Taliban inexorablyset in motion the train of events that led to Osama bin Laden shifting from Khartoum to Jalalabad in 1996 and launching from Afghanistanthe terrorist strikes outside the US Embassies in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam in August 1998, the attack on USS Cole off Aden inOctober,2000, and the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland.
7. Our Indian sources say that in the history of Indo-American relations since India became independent in 1947, there have been moreinstances of meddling by Democrats than by Republicans. They feel that Democrats seem to think that they understand sub-continentalaffairs better than anybody in the US and find it difficult to resist the urge to meddle. According to them, that is why Indian security agenciesfeel uncomfortable when the White House has a Democrat as incumbent. They say that if one draws a graph of terrorism in J&K, one wouldfind that it tends to go up when a Democrat is the President.
8.At a time when India and Pakistan are on the road to slowly mending their bilateral relations, Indians are amazed that the President-electoblivious of the past misadventures of the US in the sub-continent should be thinkig of one more. (6-11-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStrudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Eyes only: Obama's spy briefing
By Adam Brookes BBC News, Washington
The President's Daily Brief (PDB) occupies a fabled place in American politics.
It is an ultra-secret compilation of the latest intelligence presented to the President every morning.
And later on Thursday, Barack Obama will start to receive the PDB as president-elect.
Every evening, reports over the years tell us, the PDB is roughed out by intelligence officials.
Its contents tend towards the very topical:
The latest signals intercepts from the National Security Agency in Fort Meade, Maryland
The latest human intelligence relayed to the CIA's case officers by their agents, or to the operatives of the Defense Intelligence Agency
Satellite images garnered by the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency in Bethesda
Perhaps most importantly, the PDB sums up the conclusions about the state of the world as reached by analysts from across some 16 USintelligence agencies.
Dynamic process
The President could not possibly absorb the sum of the information gathered by the huge American intelligence apparatus.
FBI information indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for hijackings or other types of attacks
The PDB must synthesise and distil key conclusions from a mass of data.
So the PDB is a highly selective document. And it must be written very carefully.
Intelligence staff continue to work on it overnight, as fresh reporting comes in.
In the morning the final version is reviewed by the Director for National Intelligence (DNI), or one of his staff.
The current DNI, Mike McConnell, likes to take the PDB to the White House and present it to the President, sources say.
He takes with him staff members who are specialists and can answer questions the President might have.
"It's a dynamic process," says Thomas Blanton, Director of the National Security Archive at George Washington University.
"The President hears what the intelligence people want him to know, and the intelligence people learn what the president is interested in."
There are only a few PDBs - or portions of them - in the public domain. And those are mostly associated with highly controversial topics. George Bush (C) may have passed over PDB warnings of al-Qaeda threats
Here is an extract from a 1998 PDB given to President Clinton. It is often used to illustrate that the US clearly understood the al-Qaedathreat years before President George W Bush took office:
"SUBJECT: Bin Laden Preparing to Hijack US Aircraft and Other Attacks
"Reporting [-] suggests Bin Laden and his allies are preparing for attacks in the US, including an aircraft hijacking to obtain the release ofShaykh 'Umar 'Abd al-Rahman, Ramzi Yousef, and Muhammad Sadiq 'Awda.
"One source quoted a senior member of the Gama'at al-Islamiyya (IG) saying that, as of late October, the IG had completed planning for anoperation in the US on behalf of Bin Laden, but that the operation was on hold.
"A senior Bin Laden operative from Saudi Arabia was to visit IG counterparts in the US soon thereafter to discuss options-perhaps includingan aircraft hijacking."
There is a lot of detail here, and references to individual items of HUMINT (human intelligence), though President Clinton was renowned for his love of just that.
But note the caveats: reports do not "tell", they merely "suggest".
Perhaps the most infamous PDB also concerns al-Qaeda. It went to President Bush on 6 August, 2001 - just over a month before the 11September attacks on New York and Washington.
It contained the headline: "Bin Ladin determined to strike in the US".
It reads: "FBI information indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for hijackings or other typesof attacks."
Extraordinarily prescient? Or vague and unhelpful?
The Silberman-Robb report on US intelligence capabilities of 2005 found "deficiencies" in the PDB. Its authors were scathing. The dailyreports seemed to be "selling" intelligence - in order to keep its customers, or at least the First Customer, interested
They alleged that the format of the Brief and the way in which it was delivered helped inflate the sense of the threat posed by Iraq.
The "river of intelligence that flowed from the CIA to top policy makers over long periods of time" through the PDB was "misleading", said thereport.
"The PDBs… with their attention-grabbing headlines and drumbeat of repetition, left an impression of many corroborating reports where infact there were very few sources", it read.
"The daily reports seemed to be "selling" intelligence - in order to keep its customers, or at least the First Customer, interested."
Since then, there have been changes.
The PDB now looks less like a newsletter, sources say. It may include graphics and photographs.
Gone are those pithy headlines. And it is written in a way to reflect uncertainty or disagreement within the intelligence agencies.
So what might Barack Obama's first PDB have in it?
Well, it is not hard to imagine that there would be an evaluation of Russia's intentions regarding the positioning of its missiles, givenPresident Medvedev's recent belligerent statements.
The latest from the Afghan-Pakistan border, intercepts and photographs from drones which reveal what militants are where, and the plans US intelligence has to target them, perhaps.
And did US warplanes really kill 37 civilians at a wedding party, as the Afghan government alleges?
And plenty more - that we will never know.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
OBAMA:DANGERS OF INDO-PAK RE-HYPHENATION
B.RAMAN
The Presidential campaign is over. The transition drill has begun. Senator Barrack Obama will take over as the President only on January 20 next, but his immense work as the President-elect would have already begun from the moment he left the dais after making the victory speech to his followers and supporters.
2.The Americans call it the period of transition. It is during this period that the President-elect chooses his team of Cabinet members and senior officials, decides on his policy priorities and works out his goals during the first 100 days of his administration and thereafter. Those, who would constitute the hard core of his transition team, would start co-ordinating with the outgoing Bush administration.
3. Senior officials of the US Secret Service, which protects the President and the Vice-President, would have already called on him and set in place the arrangements for his security. Other officials of the Bush Administration would be calling on him and his close advisers to keep them briefed on the actions of the outgoing administration.
4. He will be the President of the US only from January 20, but he will be already entitled from November 5 to a regular briefing by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Director, National Intelligence (DNI) on important developments in the world. The outgoing administration would not take any major decision or initiative or action without keeping him in the picture.
5. Speculation as to who could be his Cabinet members and other senior advisers had already started days before the elections in anticipation of a certain victory by him. In an article on October 26,2008, the “Independent” of the UK put its bet on the following as his possible Cabinet members:
Secretary of State: John Kerry (Senator from Massachusetts), Richard Holbrooke (former UN Ambassador), Bill Richardson (Governor of New Mexico, former UN Ambassador)
Secretary of Defence: Robert Gates (current Pentagon chief), Retd. General Wesley Clark (2004 Democratic Presidential candidate), Chuck Hagel (outgoing Republican Senator from Nebraska)
Treasury Secretary: Laura Tyson (former economic adviser to President Clinton), Timothy Geithner (President, New York Fed), Paul Volcker (former Federal Reserve Chairman)
National Security Adviser: Susan Rice (Obama's top foreign policy adviser), Retd. General Anthony Zinni (former C-in-C, Central Command), Samantha Power (former Obama foreign policy adviser)
Others: Colin Powell, possible foreign policy special envoy/troubleshooter; Hillary Clinton, health care czarina.
6.There could be surprises because he will have a political debt to pay to those who supported him and they may want some of their nominees to be accommodated.
7.India will have no special reasons to be concerned over the possibility of any of the persons mentioned by “Independent” joining the Cabinet, except possibly Holbrooke, whose taking-over as the Secretary of State could lead to a re-hyphenation of Indo-Pakistan relations, bringing back the hyphen, which had been removed by President George Bush and his Secretary of State Condolleeza Rice.
8.Another person of concern to India would be Madeleine Albright, who was Secretary of State under Bill Clinton. Though “Independent” did not mention her, she was reportedly a member of the inner circle which was advising Obama on foreign policy matters during the campaign.
9.India will also put a question mark on Colin Powell, who was particularly not well disposed towards India during the first term of Bush when Powell was the Secretary of State. It was only after he was replaced by Rice as the Secretary of State that Indo-US relations really started moving forward with many initiatives to acknowledge the importance of India as a major power on par with China. Concerns over Pakistani sensitivities ceased to be an inhibiting factor in US policy-making with regard to India. Zinni is an unknown quantity in India. He has many friends in Pakistan’s Armed Forces.
10.It is still 10 weeks before Obama takes over as the President. One does not know how the economies of the US and the rest of the world would move during this period. Till now, the US and the rest of the world have been seeing only the impact of the melt-down on the moneyed class---- banks, stock markets, business companies, people who have the money to dabble in the stock markets and to keep deposits in banks. The world is yet to see the impact on the common man, who is worried only about his day-to-day living and not about stock markets, mutual funds and banks. The impact on the common man would become evident by the time Obama takes over as the President.
11. The common people in the US and the rest of the world will be watching how he deals with the impact on their lives. Understandably, apart from rhetorical statements, Obama was sparse in his policy pronouncements on the economic crisis. His evasion was understandable because he had to take care that any unwise remarks by him did not add to the prevailing nervousness in the market. The economy would occupy a major part of his attention during his first few weeks in office.
12. His pronouncements on India and Pakistan, which were music to the ears of people in India in the initial months of the campaign, became jarring during the closing days of the campaign. In the initial months of his campaign, he praised India and supported the initiatives taken by the Bush administration in relation to India. He was very critical of Pakistan’s inadequate co-operation with the US in the war against Al Qaeda. He also criticized the Bush Administration for giving to Pakistan weapons, which it could use only against India and not against Al Qaeda, under the pretext of strengthening its counter-terrorism capability. He hardly spoke of Indo-Pakistan issues.
13.But as the campaign reached its culmination, he started speaking of the Kashmir issue in a language, which reminded one of the language of the past from the officials of the Clinton Administration. Obama’s entourage and Gen. David H.Petraeus, former Commander of the Multi-National Force in Iraq, who took over as the Commander of the US Central Command on October 31 and is presently on a visit to Pakistan and Afghanistan, have one thing in common---- they listen a lot to the assessments and recommendations of Ahmed Rashid, the Pakistani analyst, who has written extensively on the Taliban and the war against terrorism. In fact, Petraeus has reportedly nominated Ahmed Rashid and Shuja Nawaz, the author of the recently published book on the Pakistan Army called “Crossed Swords”, as members of a brains trust to advise him on a new strategy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan.
14.Ahmed Rashid has been arguing for some months now that the Pakistan Army cannot be expected to co-operate wholeheartedly with the US Armed Forces in the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban unless there is a forward movement in settling the Kashmir issue and India is pressured to cut down its presence in Afghanistan. There were not many takers for his arguments in the Bush Administration. But they have already started influencing the thinking of many who are close to Obama.
15.Will he exercise pressure on India on the Kashmir issue and its role in Afghanistan after he takes over or will he let his pre-election remarks remain without follow up action? This is a question which should worry Indian policy-makers.
16.Obama’s policy towards China is also likely to be different from that of the Bush Administration. He will continue to strengthen the US’ strategic relations with India, the foundations for which were laid by Bush and Rice, but the sensitivities of China and Pakistan could once again become inhibiting factors in determining the pace and extent of the relationship. He is unlikely to subscribe to the wisdom of building up India as a counter to China. That was the unstated wisdom behind the policies of the Bush Administration towards India.
17.Obama was supportive of the Indo-US Civilian nuclear co-operation Agreement. Many of the non-governmental experts, who were critical of the agreement, have a greater audience for their views in the Democratic Party than in the Republican Party. They would try to see that the Hyde Act is observed in letter and spirit in the implementation of the agreement. If their views prevail, one could see a slow-down in Indo-US co-operation in nuclear matters.
18.Under Bush, Indo-US relations developed like never before because he was a great admirer of India and was convinced of the need to encourage the emergence of India as a major Asian power on par with China. Obama has so far not given any indication of a similar admiration and conviction.
19.Barring John F.Kennedy, other Democratic Presidents were not very positive towards India. They always thought of India tactically and not strategically. Many major initiatives towards India came from Republican Presidents, who held office after Richard Nixon, whose dislike of India---- and particularly Indira Gandhi--- was well-known. There was a new page in Indo-US relations under Bush. This was facilitated by the decline in the influence of some Washington-based think tanks and their academics on policy-making. With the return of a Democrat to the White House, these old academic warriors are already coming out of their eight-year-long hibernation and will try to influence the new President in his thinking and policies. Their views are no different from those of the like of Ahmed Rashid.
20.We should not hesitate to make it clear to the new administration that while we are as keen as before to strengthen our strategic relations with the US, this cannot be at the expense of our vital national interests in matters like Kashmir and Afghanistan. (5-11-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Presidential campaign is over. The transition drill has begun. Senator Barrack Obama will take over as the President only on January 20 next, but his immense work as the President-elect would have already begun from the moment he left the dais after making the victory speech to his followers and supporters.
2.The Americans call it the period of transition. It is during this period that the President-elect chooses his team of Cabinet members and senior officials, decides on his policy priorities and works out his goals during the first 100 days of his administration and thereafter. Those, who would constitute the hard core of his transition team, would start co-ordinating with the outgoing Bush administration.
3. Senior officials of the US Secret Service, which protects the President and the Vice-President, would have already called on him and set in place the arrangements for his security. Other officials of the Bush Administration would be calling on him and his close advisers to keep them briefed on the actions of the outgoing administration.
4. He will be the President of the US only from January 20, but he will be already entitled from November 5 to a regular briefing by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Director, National Intelligence (DNI) on important developments in the world. The outgoing administration would not take any major decision or initiative or action without keeping him in the picture.
5. Speculation as to who could be his Cabinet members and other senior advisers had already started days before the elections in anticipation of a certain victory by him. In an article on October 26,2008, the “Independent” of the UK put its bet on the following as his possible Cabinet members:
Secretary of State: John Kerry (Senator from Massachusetts), Richard Holbrooke (former UN Ambassador), Bill Richardson (Governor of New Mexico, former UN Ambassador)
Secretary of Defence: Robert Gates (current Pentagon chief), Retd. General Wesley Clark (2004 Democratic Presidential candidate), Chuck Hagel (outgoing Republican Senator from Nebraska)
Treasury Secretary: Laura Tyson (former economic adviser to President Clinton), Timothy Geithner (President, New York Fed), Paul Volcker (former Federal Reserve Chairman)
National Security Adviser: Susan Rice (Obama's top foreign policy adviser), Retd. General Anthony Zinni (former C-in-C, Central Command), Samantha Power (former Obama foreign policy adviser)
Others: Colin Powell, possible foreign policy special envoy/troubleshooter; Hillary Clinton, health care czarina.
6.There could be surprises because he will have a political debt to pay to those who supported him and they may want some of their nominees to be accommodated.
7.India will have no special reasons to be concerned over the possibility of any of the persons mentioned by “Independent” joining the Cabinet, except possibly Holbrooke, whose taking-over as the Secretary of State could lead to a re-hyphenation of Indo-Pakistan relations, bringing back the hyphen, which had been removed by President George Bush and his Secretary of State Condolleeza Rice.
8.Another person of concern to India would be Madeleine Albright, who was Secretary of State under Bill Clinton. Though “Independent” did not mention her, she was reportedly a member of the inner circle which was advising Obama on foreign policy matters during the campaign.
9.India will also put a question mark on Colin Powell, who was particularly not well disposed towards India during the first term of Bush when Powell was the Secretary of State. It was only after he was replaced by Rice as the Secretary of State that Indo-US relations really started moving forward with many initiatives to acknowledge the importance of India as a major power on par with China. Concerns over Pakistani sensitivities ceased to be an inhibiting factor in US policy-making with regard to India. Zinni is an unknown quantity in India. He has many friends in Pakistan’s Armed Forces.
10.It is still 10 weeks before Obama takes over as the President. One does not know how the economies of the US and the rest of the world would move during this period. Till now, the US and the rest of the world have been seeing only the impact of the melt-down on the moneyed class---- banks, stock markets, business companies, people who have the money to dabble in the stock markets and to keep deposits in banks. The world is yet to see the impact on the common man, who is worried only about his day-to-day living and not about stock markets, mutual funds and banks. The impact on the common man would become evident by the time Obama takes over as the President.
11. The common people in the US and the rest of the world will be watching how he deals with the impact on their lives. Understandably, apart from rhetorical statements, Obama was sparse in his policy pronouncements on the economic crisis. His evasion was understandable because he had to take care that any unwise remarks by him did not add to the prevailing nervousness in the market. The economy would occupy a major part of his attention during his first few weeks in office.
12. His pronouncements on India and Pakistan, which were music to the ears of people in India in the initial months of the campaign, became jarring during the closing days of the campaign. In the initial months of his campaign, he praised India and supported the initiatives taken by the Bush administration in relation to India. He was very critical of Pakistan’s inadequate co-operation with the US in the war against Al Qaeda. He also criticized the Bush Administration for giving to Pakistan weapons, which it could use only against India and not against Al Qaeda, under the pretext of strengthening its counter-terrorism capability. He hardly spoke of Indo-Pakistan issues.
13.But as the campaign reached its culmination, he started speaking of the Kashmir issue in a language, which reminded one of the language of the past from the officials of the Clinton Administration. Obama’s entourage and Gen. David H.Petraeus, former Commander of the Multi-National Force in Iraq, who took over as the Commander of the US Central Command on October 31 and is presently on a visit to Pakistan and Afghanistan, have one thing in common---- they listen a lot to the assessments and recommendations of Ahmed Rashid, the Pakistani analyst, who has written extensively on the Taliban and the war against terrorism. In fact, Petraeus has reportedly nominated Ahmed Rashid and Shuja Nawaz, the author of the recently published book on the Pakistan Army called “Crossed Swords”, as members of a brains trust to advise him on a new strategy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan.
14.Ahmed Rashid has been arguing for some months now that the Pakistan Army cannot be expected to co-operate wholeheartedly with the US Armed Forces in the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban unless there is a forward movement in settling the Kashmir issue and India is pressured to cut down its presence in Afghanistan. There were not many takers for his arguments in the Bush Administration. But they have already started influencing the thinking of many who are close to Obama.
15.Will he exercise pressure on India on the Kashmir issue and its role in Afghanistan after he takes over or will he let his pre-election remarks remain without follow up action? This is a question which should worry Indian policy-makers.
16.Obama’s policy towards China is also likely to be different from that of the Bush Administration. He will continue to strengthen the US’ strategic relations with India, the foundations for which were laid by Bush and Rice, but the sensitivities of China and Pakistan could once again become inhibiting factors in determining the pace and extent of the relationship. He is unlikely to subscribe to the wisdom of building up India as a counter to China. That was the unstated wisdom behind the policies of the Bush Administration towards India.
17.Obama was supportive of the Indo-US Civilian nuclear co-operation Agreement. Many of the non-governmental experts, who were critical of the agreement, have a greater audience for their views in the Democratic Party than in the Republican Party. They would try to see that the Hyde Act is observed in letter and spirit in the implementation of the agreement. If their views prevail, one could see a slow-down in Indo-US co-operation in nuclear matters.
18.Under Bush, Indo-US relations developed like never before because he was a great admirer of India and was convinced of the need to encourage the emergence of India as a major Asian power on par with China. Obama has so far not given any indication of a similar admiration and conviction.
19.Barring John F.Kennedy, other Democratic Presidents were not very positive towards India. They always thought of India tactically and not strategically. Many major initiatives towards India came from Republican Presidents, who held office after Richard Nixon, whose dislike of India---- and particularly Indira Gandhi--- was well-known. There was a new page in Indo-US relations under Bush. This was facilitated by the decline in the influence of some Washington-based think tanks and their academics on policy-making. With the return of a Democrat to the White House, these old academic warriors are already coming out of their eight-year-long hibernation and will try to influence the new President in his thinking and policies. Their views are no different from those of the like of Ahmed Rashid.
20.We should not hesitate to make it clear to the new administration that while we are as keen as before to strengthen our strategic relations with the US, this cannot be at the expense of our vital national interests in matters like Kashmir and Afghanistan. (5-11-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
CHINESE ECONOMY MONITOR--- NOTE NO.3
B.RAMAN
( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to theother countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel thenegative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been bringing out a periodic "ChineseEconomy Monitor" based on open information. This is the third in the series---B. Raman)
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY, THE NEED OF THE HOUR, SAYS WEN
Summing up the discussions at the Asia-Europe Meeting Summit held in Beijing, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told the media on October 24,2008, as follows: "We will discuss with world leaders on measures to cope with the financial crisis in a pragmatic and cooperative manner.Ithink what we should do to cope with the crisis can be summarized as confidence, cooperation and responsibility.We are very glad to seethat many countries have taken measures that have initially proved effective. But this is not enough given the current situation, and moreneeds to be done.The stability of financial market is key to stabilizing the whole economy. The first important message that the two-daysummit has conveyed is firm confidence, and I think confidence is the source of power to overcome difficulties."
---- Source Xinhua
2.Liu He, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economy Work, told the "China Daily" on October24,2008, as follows: "The worsening global economic situation makes it difficult for China to predict its growth for next year.How fastChina's economy will grow next year is uncertain. To a large extent, the rate will be decided by the external situation.This year, GDP isestimated to grow at 9.4 or 9.5 per cent, down from 10.6 per cent last year.However, the impact of the current financial turbulence on oureconomy is much less than in the rest of the world. China can use the downturn as an opportunity to restructure its economy, which hasrelied heavily on government investment, foreign trade and low-cost technology over the past years. When the economy is experiencing fastgrowth, companies are unwilling to upgrade their technologies.The slowdown gives such firms the opportunity to enhance their competitiveedge through better technologies."
----Source "China Daily"
ELECTRONIC EXPORTS CONTINUE TO GROW, BUT LESS RAPIDLY
3.China's trade in electronic and information products increased during the first eight months of 2008, but the growth rate of both exportsand imports decreased.Electronic and information products constitute the largest single item in terms of value in China's exportbasket.About two-thirds of the exports come from wholly foreign -owned manufacturing units in China----mainly from Japan, South Korea,Hong Kong and Taiwan--- 16 per cent from joint ventures and the remaining 18 per cent from wholly Chinese-owned companies. Theseproducts include mobile phones, fax machines, TV sets, computers, digital cameras and the like.During the first eight months of this year,the total value of the exports of these items was about US $ 338.62 billion , an increase of 22.53 per cent as compared to thecorresponding period of 2007. The growth rate during the same period in 2007 as compared to 2006 was 24.53 per cent. Thus, the exportgrowth rate decreased by two per centage points, but it is still high. China imported $ 246.81 billion worth of electronic and informationproducts from January to August, up 15.45 per cent as compared to the corresponding period of 2007. However, the growth rate was five per cent lower than last year. The imports include whole products imported for sale to the Chinese consumers as well as parts imported forassembly and re-export.Trade surplus of electronic and information products increased by 46.7 per cent to US $91.81 billion , accountingfor 60.4 percent of China's total trade surplus. China exported $4.12 billion worth of software in the first five months of 2008, up 45 percent over the corresponding period of 2007.Software exports surged from $720 million in 2001 to $10.24 billion in 2007. (My comments: Thetotal value of India's software exports is around US $ 40 billion per annum.)
-------Source: Xinhua
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES CONTINUE TO BULGE; YUAN ASSETS PREFERRED TO DOLLAR & EURO
4.The People's Bank of China, which is China's central bank, reported on October 13,2008, that the country's foreign exchange reservessurged to 1.9056 trillion U.S. dollars through September. The figure was up by 32.92 per cent as compared to the first nine months of 2007.Foreign exchange reserves grew by 47.7 per cent during the first nine months of 2007 as compared to the corresponding period of 2006.Thus, the growth rate has dropped by 14.8 per cent.China overtook Japan to become the world's largest holder of forex reserves inFebruary 2006. Till June,2008, the foreign exchange reserves were growing by 35.73 per cent. This came down to 32.92 per cent bySeptember-end,2008. During the first three quarters of 2008, China's trade surplus decreased by 2.6 per cent year-on-year to 180.9 billionU.S. dollars. There was a flow of 377.3 billion U.S. dollars to the forex reserves in the first three quarters. In September, the reserve build-upexpanded by 21.4 billion U.S. dollars, compared with rises of 36 billion U.S. dollars and 39 billion U.S. dollars in July and August, respectively.The monthly increase was averaged at 41.9 billion U.S. dollars in the first nine months, still higher than an average 38.5 billion U.S. dollarsrecorded last year. The average monthly increase for the third quarter alone was 32 billion U.S. dollars, and higher than marketexpectations. The country's trade surplus had been expanding by more than 27 billion U.S. dollars each month in the third quarter, whichalso overran market expectations. Tan Yaling, a China International Economic Relations Society economist, said the growth in forexreserves also indicated a growing interest in yuan assets as a haven for investment amid the global turmoil. "Under the current financialcrisis that originated in the United States and with the euro also softening, China's yuan-denominated assets appear relatively safer andcreated an influx of foreign investment, which also contributed to the growth in the third quarter." Zhang Bin, a Chinese Academy of SocialSciences researcher, said the U.S. financial crisis had a limited impact on the country's huge forex reserves, as the forex supervisor haddiversified the holdings so as to avert some risks. Through September, the M2 -- a broad measure of money supply, which covers cash incirculation plus all deposits -- grew by 15.29 per cent from a year ago to 45.29 trillion yuan (6.7 trillion U.S. dollars). The M2 growth was 0.71percentage points lower than the previous month. The figure had fallen for the fourth consecutive month as the government's tighteningmeasures started to take hold. Tightening policies, including several interest rate hikes, since the end of last year, adopted to fight soaringinflation and overheating risks, however, had recently been replaced by two rate cuts in less than a month. Such moves were taken to boostthe domestic economy amid worries over the deepening global financial crisis. Through September, the narrow measure of money supply,M1, was up 9.43 percent to 15.57 trillion yuan, again lower than the 11.48 percent rise in August.The central bank report also claimed thatthe country's financial system remained stable. Outstanding local currency loans expanded 14.48 percent to 29.65 trillion yuan. The growthwas 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous month. Outstanding loans in foreign currencies, however, rose 30.86 percent to 269.2billion U.S. dollars, compared with a gain of 37.84 percent in August. The report said local-currency deposits were up 18.79 percent to 45.49trillion yuan, while foreign-currency deposits grew 9.37 percent to 174.2 billion U.S. dollars. Local-currency transactions on the inter-bankmarket reached 9.49 trillion yuan last month. Average daily transactions were 451.9 billion yuan, up 17 percent year on year.
---- Source Xinhua
ASSESSMENT
5.My comments: While the toy industry is in a state of serious crisis due to a steep fall in demands from the US, the electronic and information products industries, which contribute nearly 60 per cent of China's trade surplus, continue to do well. There has been a declinein orders as compared to 2007, but not very high. However, if this decline expands in the coming months, that could add to the difficultiesfaced. The foreign exchange reserves continue to bulge despite a slight drop in trade surplus.The fall in the flow of reserves due to a slightdrop in trade surplus has been compensated by a flow of money from foreign investors, who prefer yuan-denominated assets to US dollar and Euro denominated ones.One does not know how much of China's foreign exchange reserves has been invested in the US Treasury bonds. If these bonds lose in value as a result of the melt-down in the US, that could aggravate the difficulties. The Chinese leaders and officials are projecting a picture of confidence that they will be able to keep their economy stable. Whether their confidence is justified or not would beevident only by January. Presently, the electronic and information products and textiles industries are doing well on the basis of the exportorders received before the melt-down started in the West. What inpact the melt-down has on post-September orders would be evident onlyby January. The present Chinese worry is over the spectre of unemployment as the export orders come down. How healthy is their banking system? An answer to this question is not yet available.
(The writer is Additional Secretary(retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to theother countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel thenegative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been bringing out a periodic "ChineseEconomy Monitor" based on open information. This is the third in the series---B. Raman)
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY, THE NEED OF THE HOUR, SAYS WEN
Summing up the discussions at the Asia-Europe Meeting Summit held in Beijing, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told the media on October 24,2008, as follows: "We will discuss with world leaders on measures to cope with the financial crisis in a pragmatic and cooperative manner.Ithink what we should do to cope with the crisis can be summarized as confidence, cooperation and responsibility.We are very glad to seethat many countries have taken measures that have initially proved effective. But this is not enough given the current situation, and moreneeds to be done.The stability of financial market is key to stabilizing the whole economy. The first important message that the two-daysummit has conveyed is firm confidence, and I think confidence is the source of power to overcome difficulties."
---- Source Xinhua
2.Liu He, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economy Work, told the "China Daily" on October24,2008, as follows: "The worsening global economic situation makes it difficult for China to predict its growth for next year.How fastChina's economy will grow next year is uncertain. To a large extent, the rate will be decided by the external situation.This year, GDP isestimated to grow at 9.4 or 9.5 per cent, down from 10.6 per cent last year.However, the impact of the current financial turbulence on oureconomy is much less than in the rest of the world. China can use the downturn as an opportunity to restructure its economy, which hasrelied heavily on government investment, foreign trade and low-cost technology over the past years. When the economy is experiencing fastgrowth, companies are unwilling to upgrade their technologies.The slowdown gives such firms the opportunity to enhance their competitiveedge through better technologies."
----Source "China Daily"
ELECTRONIC EXPORTS CONTINUE TO GROW, BUT LESS RAPIDLY
3.China's trade in electronic and information products increased during the first eight months of 2008, but the growth rate of both exportsand imports decreased.Electronic and information products constitute the largest single item in terms of value in China's exportbasket.About two-thirds of the exports come from wholly foreign -owned manufacturing units in China----mainly from Japan, South Korea,Hong Kong and Taiwan--- 16 per cent from joint ventures and the remaining 18 per cent from wholly Chinese-owned companies. Theseproducts include mobile phones, fax machines, TV sets, computers, digital cameras and the like.During the first eight months of this year,the total value of the exports of these items was about US $ 338.62 billion , an increase of 22.53 per cent as compared to thecorresponding period of 2007. The growth rate during the same period in 2007 as compared to 2006 was 24.53 per cent. Thus, the exportgrowth rate decreased by two per centage points, but it is still high. China imported $ 246.81 billion worth of electronic and informationproducts from January to August, up 15.45 per cent as compared to the corresponding period of 2007. However, the growth rate was five per cent lower than last year. The imports include whole products imported for sale to the Chinese consumers as well as parts imported forassembly and re-export.Trade surplus of electronic and information products increased by 46.7 per cent to US $91.81 billion , accountingfor 60.4 percent of China's total trade surplus. China exported $4.12 billion worth of software in the first five months of 2008, up 45 percent over the corresponding period of 2007.Software exports surged from $720 million in 2001 to $10.24 billion in 2007. (My comments: Thetotal value of India's software exports is around US $ 40 billion per annum.)
-------Source: Xinhua
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES CONTINUE TO BULGE; YUAN ASSETS PREFERRED TO DOLLAR & EURO
4.The People's Bank of China, which is China's central bank, reported on October 13,2008, that the country's foreign exchange reservessurged to 1.9056 trillion U.S. dollars through September. The figure was up by 32.92 per cent as compared to the first nine months of 2007.Foreign exchange reserves grew by 47.7 per cent during the first nine months of 2007 as compared to the corresponding period of 2006.Thus, the growth rate has dropped by 14.8 per cent.China overtook Japan to become the world's largest holder of forex reserves inFebruary 2006. Till June,2008, the foreign exchange reserves were growing by 35.73 per cent. This came down to 32.92 per cent bySeptember-end,2008. During the first three quarters of 2008, China's trade surplus decreased by 2.6 per cent year-on-year to 180.9 billionU.S. dollars. There was a flow of 377.3 billion U.S. dollars to the forex reserves in the first three quarters. In September, the reserve build-upexpanded by 21.4 billion U.S. dollars, compared with rises of 36 billion U.S. dollars and 39 billion U.S. dollars in July and August, respectively.The monthly increase was averaged at 41.9 billion U.S. dollars in the first nine months, still higher than an average 38.5 billion U.S. dollarsrecorded last year. The average monthly increase for the third quarter alone was 32 billion U.S. dollars, and higher than marketexpectations. The country's trade surplus had been expanding by more than 27 billion U.S. dollars each month in the third quarter, whichalso overran market expectations. Tan Yaling, a China International Economic Relations Society economist, said the growth in forexreserves also indicated a growing interest in yuan assets as a haven for investment amid the global turmoil. "Under the current financialcrisis that originated in the United States and with the euro also softening, China's yuan-denominated assets appear relatively safer andcreated an influx of foreign investment, which also contributed to the growth in the third quarter." Zhang Bin, a Chinese Academy of SocialSciences researcher, said the U.S. financial crisis had a limited impact on the country's huge forex reserves, as the forex supervisor haddiversified the holdings so as to avert some risks. Through September, the M2 -- a broad measure of money supply, which covers cash incirculation plus all deposits -- grew by 15.29 per cent from a year ago to 45.29 trillion yuan (6.7 trillion U.S. dollars). The M2 growth was 0.71percentage points lower than the previous month. The figure had fallen for the fourth consecutive month as the government's tighteningmeasures started to take hold. Tightening policies, including several interest rate hikes, since the end of last year, adopted to fight soaringinflation and overheating risks, however, had recently been replaced by two rate cuts in less than a month. Such moves were taken to boostthe domestic economy amid worries over the deepening global financial crisis. Through September, the narrow measure of money supply,M1, was up 9.43 percent to 15.57 trillion yuan, again lower than the 11.48 percent rise in August.The central bank report also claimed thatthe country's financial system remained stable. Outstanding local currency loans expanded 14.48 percent to 29.65 trillion yuan. The growthwas 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous month. Outstanding loans in foreign currencies, however, rose 30.86 percent to 269.2billion U.S. dollars, compared with a gain of 37.84 percent in August. The report said local-currency deposits were up 18.79 percent to 45.49trillion yuan, while foreign-currency deposits grew 9.37 percent to 174.2 billion U.S. dollars. Local-currency transactions on the inter-bankmarket reached 9.49 trillion yuan last month. Average daily transactions were 451.9 billion yuan, up 17 percent year on year.
---- Source Xinhua
ASSESSMENT
5.My comments: While the toy industry is in a state of serious crisis due to a steep fall in demands from the US, the electronic and information products industries, which contribute nearly 60 per cent of China's trade surplus, continue to do well. There has been a declinein orders as compared to 2007, but not very high. However, if this decline expands in the coming months, that could add to the difficultiesfaced. The foreign exchange reserves continue to bulge despite a slight drop in trade surplus.The fall in the flow of reserves due to a slightdrop in trade surplus has been compensated by a flow of money from foreign investors, who prefer yuan-denominated assets to US dollar and Euro denominated ones.One does not know how much of China's foreign exchange reserves has been invested in the US Treasury bonds. If these bonds lose in value as a result of the melt-down in the US, that could aggravate the difficulties. The Chinese leaders and officials are projecting a picture of confidence that they will be able to keep their economy stable. Whether their confidence is justified or not would beevident only by January. Presently, the electronic and information products and textiles industries are doing well on the basis of the exportorders received before the melt-down started in the West. What inpact the melt-down has on post-September orders would be evident onlyby January. The present Chinese worry is over the spectre of unemployment as the export orders come down. How healthy is their banking system? An answer to this question is not yet available.
(The writer is Additional Secretary(retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, November 3, 2008
TIBET: 'STATUS QUO PLUS' AS AN OPTION?
B.RAMAN
There is a note of increasing dejection in the post-Olympics statements and comments of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and his spokesmenregarding the future of Tibet. His hopes that in the wake of the protest demonstrations in Tibet in March,2008, the international communitywill step up pressure on Beijing to reach an accommodation with him have been belied. The restrained post-March 2008 reactions of theinternational community have shown that the economic links of the West with China have become so strong that the West is not prepared torisk this linkage by over-focussing on the Tibet issue to the annoyance of China. Apart from proforma expressions of reverence for HisHoliness and of support for the improvement of human rights in Tibet, the West is disinclined to do anything more. It has come to therealisation that it won't be desirable to exploit Tibet as a card against China.
2.This disinclination to exercise undue pressure on China on the Tibet issue is likely to increase further as the West's dependence onChinese co-operation for re-stabilising the global economy increases. Despite the spectre of large-scale unemployment due to decrease inexports to the West, the Chinese economy is still in a stable state. Its foreign exchange reserves ( touching US $ 2 trillion ) have not sufferedany major depletion so far despite the decrease in export orders from the West. China has major worries over the possibility of social unrestin the southern coastal provinces, which would be the worst affected by any recession in the West, but in spite of this, its leaders realisethat the global financial and economic crisis provides it with an opportunity to play a benign role in helping out the Western powers andthereby earning political and strategic dividends. At a time when the West is looking up to China to help it out in this hour of crisis, it is evenmore unlikely than in the past to exploit the Tibetan issue.
3. The coming to power of a Maoist-led Government in Nepal has already affected the political and operational manoeuvrability of theTibetan exiles in that country, who were playing an important role in keeping the anti-Beijing forces alive and active in Tibet. It is likely to befurther affected as the Maoists consolidate their position further.
4.It is this realisation which seems to be behind the note of increasing dejection in the comments and statements of His Holiness and hisspokesmen. He continues to be critical of China and accuses it of bad faith by being not serious in its talks with his representatives on thefuture of Tibet. He has been saying that he does not expect any forward movement in the latest round of talks for which his representativeshave gone to China.
5. He has realised that the time has come for a major re-think of the policies hitherto followed by his Government-in-exile based inDharamshala in India in consultation with the representatives of the Tibetan diaspora and with the international well-wishers of the Tibetanmovement. He has convened two meetings for this purpose.
6.Tenzin Taklha, a spokesman of His Holiness, was quoted as saying on October 27,2008, as follows: " The Dalai Lama is considering amajor policy shift towards China following a complete lack of progress in talks on Tibetan autonomy with Beijing.All options would be on thetable at a meeting scheduled next month of exiled Tibetan leaders involved in the campaign for greater autonomy for their Himalayanhomeland. The only non-negotiable aspect is that the movement will still be non-violent. Everyone is agreed on that.He (the Dalai Lama) has lost hope in trying to reach a solution with the present Chinese leadership which is simply not willing to address the issues.His Holinessfeels that other options have to be considered, and this will be done at the meeting in November.There is no immediate prospect of the Dalai Lama going into retirement. Despite the current sense of frustration, an eighth round of talks with Beijing was expected to go aheadas scheduled this week. Whatever happens we have to keep the door to dialogue open."
7.The Dalai Lama, who is currently on a week-long visit to Japan at the invitation of local Buddhist organisations, stated as follows at apress conference in Tokyo on November 3: "The drive for greater autonomy for Tibet has ended in failure. The Tibetans should be open toall options in negotiations with Beijing. My trust in the Chinese Government has become thinner, thinner, thinner. Suppression (in Tibet) isincreasing and I cannot pretend that everything is OK.I have to accept failure. Meantime among Tibetans in recent years, our approachfailed to bring positive change inside Tibet, so criticism has also increased. So there is no other alternative than to ask people."
8.He said he would be calling a meeting later this month among Tibetans to decide on their future strategy towards the ChineseGovernment. The first meeting to be held in Dharamshala, on November 17, will involve exiled Tibetan communities. This will be followed byanother in New Delhi that will convene international supporters including lawmakers and former foreign ministers. It is not clear whetherthis meeting will also be in November.
9.He added: "I don't know what will happen.Their minds should be open to explore all different options... and not fixated on oneissue.Hopefully their discussions will not be emotional, but intelligent and carefully thought out."
10. The Dalai Lama has refused to indicate whether he would give any advice to the forthcoming meeting. His movement originally called for Tibetan independence. When it realised that independence was no longer a feasible option, he modified their objective as a middlepath----meaning autonomy for Tibet on the lines of the status given to Hong Kong. The Chinese, who have already closely integrated Tibetwith the rest of China and changed its demographic composition by settling a large number of Han Chinese in the region, are not prepared todiscuss any change in the political and administrative status quo. From the stand taken by them at the seven rounds of talks with the DalaiLama's representatives till now, it is clear that , firstly, they are not prepared to allow any political role for His Holiness and, secondly, whilethey are prepared to give him a limited religious role over the Buddhists in Tibet, they are not prepared to recognise any successor to theDalai Lama in whose selection the Chinese Government and the Communist administration in Lhasa had not played aleading role.
11. With the Dalai Lama now openly admitting the failure of his middle path policy, only two options remain:
Either revert to the previous option of independence. This is what the younger elements in the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) will want. They have always been critical of the Dalai Lama's advocacy of a middle path.The independence option had not worked in the past and is unlikely to be feasible in future even if the TYC is prepared to take to violence for this purpose. Moreover, the international community is unlikely to support any violent upheaval in Tibet unless it starts viewing China as a major threat to international peace and security. Such a contingency is very remote.
Or come to terms with the status quo in Tibet with some concessions--- that is, a kind of 'status quo plus' policy. Such concessions could be in respect of the restoration of the full religious authority of the Dalai Lama and his successor with no political role and a Chinese commitment that the successor to His Holiness would be chosen in accordance with the Tibetan Buddhist traditions with no interference by the Chinese Communist Party and State. It is doubtful whether either the TYC or China would accept this option. The Chinese might be prepared to accept the restoration of the religious role of the present Dalai Lama subject to some restrictions, but they are determined that the successor of His Holiness would be chosen by the Communist Party and the Tibetan Government with the co-operation of theTibetan Buddhists, but with no role for the diaspora.
12.The forthcoming meeting will have to take a painful decision on the future of the Tibetan movement. It is difficult to foresee at present what that decision will be. However, it is unfortunately clear that the options of His Holiness and his followers are getting narrowed down.(3-11-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
There is a note of increasing dejection in the post-Olympics statements and comments of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and his spokesmenregarding the future of Tibet. His hopes that in the wake of the protest demonstrations in Tibet in March,2008, the international communitywill step up pressure on Beijing to reach an accommodation with him have been belied. The restrained post-March 2008 reactions of theinternational community have shown that the economic links of the West with China have become so strong that the West is not prepared torisk this linkage by over-focussing on the Tibet issue to the annoyance of China. Apart from proforma expressions of reverence for HisHoliness and of support for the improvement of human rights in Tibet, the West is disinclined to do anything more. It has come to therealisation that it won't be desirable to exploit Tibet as a card against China.
2.This disinclination to exercise undue pressure on China on the Tibet issue is likely to increase further as the West's dependence onChinese co-operation for re-stabilising the global economy increases. Despite the spectre of large-scale unemployment due to decrease inexports to the West, the Chinese economy is still in a stable state. Its foreign exchange reserves ( touching US $ 2 trillion ) have not sufferedany major depletion so far despite the decrease in export orders from the West. China has major worries over the possibility of social unrestin the southern coastal provinces, which would be the worst affected by any recession in the West, but in spite of this, its leaders realisethat the global financial and economic crisis provides it with an opportunity to play a benign role in helping out the Western powers andthereby earning political and strategic dividends. At a time when the West is looking up to China to help it out in this hour of crisis, it is evenmore unlikely than in the past to exploit the Tibetan issue.
3. The coming to power of a Maoist-led Government in Nepal has already affected the political and operational manoeuvrability of theTibetan exiles in that country, who were playing an important role in keeping the anti-Beijing forces alive and active in Tibet. It is likely to befurther affected as the Maoists consolidate their position further.
4.It is this realisation which seems to be behind the note of increasing dejection in the comments and statements of His Holiness and hisspokesmen. He continues to be critical of China and accuses it of bad faith by being not serious in its talks with his representatives on thefuture of Tibet. He has been saying that he does not expect any forward movement in the latest round of talks for which his representativeshave gone to China.
5. He has realised that the time has come for a major re-think of the policies hitherto followed by his Government-in-exile based inDharamshala in India in consultation with the representatives of the Tibetan diaspora and with the international well-wishers of the Tibetanmovement. He has convened two meetings for this purpose.
6.Tenzin Taklha, a spokesman of His Holiness, was quoted as saying on October 27,2008, as follows: " The Dalai Lama is considering amajor policy shift towards China following a complete lack of progress in talks on Tibetan autonomy with Beijing.All options would be on thetable at a meeting scheduled next month of exiled Tibetan leaders involved in the campaign for greater autonomy for their Himalayanhomeland. The only non-negotiable aspect is that the movement will still be non-violent. Everyone is agreed on that.He (the Dalai Lama) has lost hope in trying to reach a solution with the present Chinese leadership which is simply not willing to address the issues.His Holinessfeels that other options have to be considered, and this will be done at the meeting in November.There is no immediate prospect of the Dalai Lama going into retirement. Despite the current sense of frustration, an eighth round of talks with Beijing was expected to go aheadas scheduled this week. Whatever happens we have to keep the door to dialogue open."
7.The Dalai Lama, who is currently on a week-long visit to Japan at the invitation of local Buddhist organisations, stated as follows at apress conference in Tokyo on November 3: "The drive for greater autonomy for Tibet has ended in failure. The Tibetans should be open toall options in negotiations with Beijing. My trust in the Chinese Government has become thinner, thinner, thinner. Suppression (in Tibet) isincreasing and I cannot pretend that everything is OK.I have to accept failure. Meantime among Tibetans in recent years, our approachfailed to bring positive change inside Tibet, so criticism has also increased. So there is no other alternative than to ask people."
8.He said he would be calling a meeting later this month among Tibetans to decide on their future strategy towards the ChineseGovernment. The first meeting to be held in Dharamshala, on November 17, will involve exiled Tibetan communities. This will be followed byanother in New Delhi that will convene international supporters including lawmakers and former foreign ministers. It is not clear whetherthis meeting will also be in November.
9.He added: "I don't know what will happen.Their minds should be open to explore all different options... and not fixated on oneissue.Hopefully their discussions will not be emotional, but intelligent and carefully thought out."
10. The Dalai Lama has refused to indicate whether he would give any advice to the forthcoming meeting. His movement originally called for Tibetan independence. When it realised that independence was no longer a feasible option, he modified their objective as a middlepath----meaning autonomy for Tibet on the lines of the status given to Hong Kong. The Chinese, who have already closely integrated Tibetwith the rest of China and changed its demographic composition by settling a large number of Han Chinese in the region, are not prepared todiscuss any change in the political and administrative status quo. From the stand taken by them at the seven rounds of talks with the DalaiLama's representatives till now, it is clear that , firstly, they are not prepared to allow any political role for His Holiness and, secondly, whilethey are prepared to give him a limited religious role over the Buddhists in Tibet, they are not prepared to recognise any successor to theDalai Lama in whose selection the Chinese Government and the Communist administration in Lhasa had not played aleading role.
11. With the Dalai Lama now openly admitting the failure of his middle path policy, only two options remain:
Either revert to the previous option of independence. This is what the younger elements in the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) will want. They have always been critical of the Dalai Lama's advocacy of a middle path.The independence option had not worked in the past and is unlikely to be feasible in future even if the TYC is prepared to take to violence for this purpose. Moreover, the international community is unlikely to support any violent upheaval in Tibet unless it starts viewing China as a major threat to international peace and security. Such a contingency is very remote.
Or come to terms with the status quo in Tibet with some concessions--- that is, a kind of 'status quo plus' policy. Such concessions could be in respect of the restoration of the full religious authority of the Dalai Lama and his successor with no political role and a Chinese commitment that the successor to His Holiness would be chosen in accordance with the Tibetan Buddhist traditions with no interference by the Chinese Communist Party and State. It is doubtful whether either the TYC or China would accept this option. The Chinese might be prepared to accept the restoration of the religious role of the present Dalai Lama subject to some restrictions, but they are determined that the successor of His Holiness would be chosen by the Communist Party and the Tibetan Government with the co-operation of theTibetan Buddhists, but with no role for the diaspora.
12.The forthcoming meeting will have to take a painful decision on the future of the Tibetan movement. It is difficult to foresee at present what that decision will be. However, it is unfortunately clear that the options of His Holiness and his followers are getting narrowed down.(3-11-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, November 1, 2008
RESPONSE TO A READER'S MAIL
I have received many mails from the US in response to my piece on Senator Barrack Obama. Some of them----possibly from supporters of Obama--- are downright abusive and sarcastic and some---possibly from supporters of McCain--- are inquisitive. I am extracting and reproducing below my reply to one of the mails. B.Raman
-----------------------------
"Thanks for your message. I did receive your earlier message, but could not reply in time. I have mentioned in my piece why I feel troubled---- as an Indian--- by what seems to me to be a lack of transparency with regard to Senator Obama. It is a fact that in the 1980s many Afro-Americans embraced Islam and went to Pakistan. An organisation called Jamaat-ul-Fuqra headed by a Pakistani cleric then based in the US and married to two Afro-American girls played an important role in the recruitment of the Afro-Americans and sending them to Pakistan. I had written extensively on this organisation for various online publications. I understand that----interestingly---- a US think tank associated with the US Armed Forces has carried recently an article on this subject . I have not yet read that article. If I remember correctly, the name of that journal is Sentinel. I will re-check and let you know. As you may be knowing one of the purposes of the visit of Daniel Pearl to Pakistan in January 2002 was to investigate the links of this organisation with Afro-Americans and particularly to check whether this organisation had anything to do with the so-called shoe-bomber. Omar Sheikh trapped him under the pretext of organising an interview with its Amir Sheikh Mubarik Ali Shah Gilani.In the 1990s, some of the Afro-Americans had also undergone a training course in a Pakistani camp of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. It is against the background of this flow of Afro-Americans to Pakistan in the 1980s and the early 1990s that I felt and still feel that Obama's visit to Pakistan should have been scrutinised a little more closely. I was surprised by the hostile comments I got from some Americans----apparently supporters of Obama--- to my article, some of them calling me a joker and using similar other abuses. Their intolerance of any attempt to draw attention to aspects which they don't like is disturbing. You should not use this for reporting since you are a journalist. Regards. Raman "
-----------------------------
"Thanks for your message. I did receive your earlier message, but could not reply in time. I have mentioned in my piece why I feel troubled---- as an Indian--- by what seems to me to be a lack of transparency with regard to Senator Obama. It is a fact that in the 1980s many Afro-Americans embraced Islam and went to Pakistan. An organisation called Jamaat-ul-Fuqra headed by a Pakistani cleric then based in the US and married to two Afro-American girls played an important role in the recruitment of the Afro-Americans and sending them to Pakistan. I had written extensively on this organisation for various online publications. I understand that----interestingly---- a US think tank associated with the US Armed Forces has carried recently an article on this subject . I have not yet read that article. If I remember correctly, the name of that journal is Sentinel. I will re-check and let you know. As you may be knowing one of the purposes of the visit of Daniel Pearl to Pakistan in January 2002 was to investigate the links of this organisation with Afro-Americans and particularly to check whether this organisation had anything to do with the so-called shoe-bomber. Omar Sheikh trapped him under the pretext of organising an interview with its Amir Sheikh Mubarik Ali Shah Gilani.In the 1990s, some of the Afro-Americans had also undergone a training course in a Pakistani camp of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. It is against the background of this flow of Afro-Americans to Pakistan in the 1980s and the early 1990s that I felt and still feel that Obama's visit to Pakistan should have been scrutinised a little more closely. I was surprised by the hostile comments I got from some Americans----apparently supporters of Obama--- to my article, some of them calling me a joker and using similar other abuses. Their intolerance of any attempt to draw attention to aspects which they don't like is disturbing. You should not use this for reporting since you are a journalist. Regards. Raman "
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
HAVING AN OBAMA IN ITS FUTURE---GOOD OR BAD FOR US?
B.RAMAN
The world has seen made-in-the-Internet scholars, made-in-the-Internet stock-brokers, made-in-the-Internet lovers and even made-in-the-Internet terrorists.
If Senator Barrack Obama is elected the President of the United States on November 4, the US and the rest of the world will be seeing for the first time a made-in-the-Internet President.
The way his advisers and entourage have effectively used the Internet to make him known to the people, to collect funds for him and to project him as a right-thinking person, who will take the US into a brave new world, will form the theme of many likely best-sellers if he wins the elections, as he seems destined to do.
Large sections of the American people are in a state of guilt----- over having suppressed the Blacks for so many years, over having supported President Bush and his Neo Conservatives in their Iraq adventure under the pretext of removing non-existent weapons of mass destruction, and over so many other perceived wrongs of the Bush Administration.
What better way of ridding themselves of their gnawing sense of guilt than to vote for a candidate, who is an Afro-American and who promises to rid the US of the legacies of the Bush administration. Just by casting their vote for him on November 4, they would in one stroke be able to get rid of all their guilt feelings and start a new life as Americans. So they think. As they stand before the voting machine, it will be their hour of the confessional ---- that they were wrong in having supported Bush.
His advisers and entourage have skillfully exploited the widely prevalent mood of guilt in the US to project him as a transformational figure (to quote Colin Powell) the like of which comes but rarely. Vote for Obama and vote for all that that is good and great in the US.
The liberals---- in the civil society, in the media, among the opinion-makers--- have made Obama seem a cult figure. For them, it will be blasphemous to ask questions about his past, to find out who he really is.
Had a white been the Democratic candidate like Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, they would not have had the least qualms in researching into his past and in dissecting every inch of him.
How can one do it for a transformational, cult figure? Cult figures have to be accepted as such without questions. How can one do that for a Black, who is on the threshold of history by being the first Black to become the President of the US? To question his past and his credentials would be racist. So the American voters have been told.
Can anyone in the US or in the rest of the world assert that he knows Obama well ---- his past and his present and what he will be in future? Future is the child of the past.
Obama is a mix of two vintages. The old pre-2006 vintage and the new post-2006 one. All his admirers know Obama of the new vintage. How many know Obama of the old vintage?
Very few. There is no desire to find out either.
Obama of the new vintage has nothing but the highest words of praise for India and Indians. He wants to continue with Bush’s policy of promoting a strategic relationship with India.
What about Obama of the old vintage? Cautious and reserved in exuding any warmth for India and the Indians lest his Pakistani friends and constituents misunderstand.
It is said that as a student he had more Pakistani friends than Indians. He felt more comfortable in the company of the Pakistanis than Indians. It was his choice and nobody could grudge it.
It was at the invitation of one of his Pakistani friends that he visited Islamabad, Karachi and Hyderabad (Sind) in the 1980s. Nobody can hold that against him.
As an Indian, one will be but human if one felt troubled that he did not disclose this till he became the Presidential candidate. He disclosed this----as if in passing--- when it was alleged that he did not understand the Islamic world and its divisions. He mentioned his visit to Pakistan to show that he knew about the divisions in Islam, about the Shia-Sunni differences.
Why did he keep mum on his visit to Pakistan till this question was raised? Has he disclosed all the details regarding his Pakistan visit? Was it as innocuous as made out by him----to respond to the invitation of a Pakistani friend or was there something more to it?
One would have expected the US journalists to have gone into this, to have quizzed him on it. But, they didn’t.
As I read about Obama’s visit to Pakistan in the 1980s, I could not help thinking of dozens of things. Of the Afghan jihad against communism. Of the fascination of many Afro-Americans for the jihad. Of the visits of a stream of Afro-Americans to Pakistan to feel the greatness of the jihad. Of their fascination for Abdullah Azzam, who came to Pakistan in the 1980s and started teaching in the International Islamic University in Islamabad. Of the fascination of some Afro-Americans for him. Of the frequent visits of Cat Stevens, the pop singer, to Pakistan and of his fascination for Islam and the on-going jihad. Of his conversion to Islam.
One might think that I am morbid in entertaining such thoughts and questions in my mind. But morbidity is understandable when one has a feeling that one has not been told the whole story, but only a part of it.
It is the right of the Americans to decide who should be their President. It is my right to worry about the implications of their decision for the rest of the world, including India. (29-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The world has seen made-in-the-Internet scholars, made-in-the-Internet stock-brokers, made-in-the-Internet lovers and even made-in-the-Internet terrorists.
If Senator Barrack Obama is elected the President of the United States on November 4, the US and the rest of the world will be seeing for the first time a made-in-the-Internet President.
The way his advisers and entourage have effectively used the Internet to make him known to the people, to collect funds for him and to project him as a right-thinking person, who will take the US into a brave new world, will form the theme of many likely best-sellers if he wins the elections, as he seems destined to do.
Large sections of the American people are in a state of guilt----- over having suppressed the Blacks for so many years, over having supported President Bush and his Neo Conservatives in their Iraq adventure under the pretext of removing non-existent weapons of mass destruction, and over so many other perceived wrongs of the Bush Administration.
What better way of ridding themselves of their gnawing sense of guilt than to vote for a candidate, who is an Afro-American and who promises to rid the US of the legacies of the Bush administration. Just by casting their vote for him on November 4, they would in one stroke be able to get rid of all their guilt feelings and start a new life as Americans. So they think. As they stand before the voting machine, it will be their hour of the confessional ---- that they were wrong in having supported Bush.
His advisers and entourage have skillfully exploited the widely prevalent mood of guilt in the US to project him as a transformational figure (to quote Colin Powell) the like of which comes but rarely. Vote for Obama and vote for all that that is good and great in the US.
The liberals---- in the civil society, in the media, among the opinion-makers--- have made Obama seem a cult figure. For them, it will be blasphemous to ask questions about his past, to find out who he really is.
Had a white been the Democratic candidate like Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, they would not have had the least qualms in researching into his past and in dissecting every inch of him.
How can one do it for a transformational, cult figure? Cult figures have to be accepted as such without questions. How can one do that for a Black, who is on the threshold of history by being the first Black to become the President of the US? To question his past and his credentials would be racist. So the American voters have been told.
Can anyone in the US or in the rest of the world assert that he knows Obama well ---- his past and his present and what he will be in future? Future is the child of the past.
Obama is a mix of two vintages. The old pre-2006 vintage and the new post-2006 one. All his admirers know Obama of the new vintage. How many know Obama of the old vintage?
Very few. There is no desire to find out either.
Obama of the new vintage has nothing but the highest words of praise for India and Indians. He wants to continue with Bush’s policy of promoting a strategic relationship with India.
What about Obama of the old vintage? Cautious and reserved in exuding any warmth for India and the Indians lest his Pakistani friends and constituents misunderstand.
It is said that as a student he had more Pakistani friends than Indians. He felt more comfortable in the company of the Pakistanis than Indians. It was his choice and nobody could grudge it.
It was at the invitation of one of his Pakistani friends that he visited Islamabad, Karachi and Hyderabad (Sind) in the 1980s. Nobody can hold that against him.
As an Indian, one will be but human if one felt troubled that he did not disclose this till he became the Presidential candidate. He disclosed this----as if in passing--- when it was alleged that he did not understand the Islamic world and its divisions. He mentioned his visit to Pakistan to show that he knew about the divisions in Islam, about the Shia-Sunni differences.
Why did he keep mum on his visit to Pakistan till this question was raised? Has he disclosed all the details regarding his Pakistan visit? Was it as innocuous as made out by him----to respond to the invitation of a Pakistani friend or was there something more to it?
One would have expected the US journalists to have gone into this, to have quizzed him on it. But, they didn’t.
As I read about Obama’s visit to Pakistan in the 1980s, I could not help thinking of dozens of things. Of the Afghan jihad against communism. Of the fascination of many Afro-Americans for the jihad. Of the visits of a stream of Afro-Americans to Pakistan to feel the greatness of the jihad. Of their fascination for Abdullah Azzam, who came to Pakistan in the 1980s and started teaching in the International Islamic University in Islamabad. Of the fascination of some Afro-Americans for him. Of the frequent visits of Cat Stevens, the pop singer, to Pakistan and of his fascination for Islam and the on-going jihad. Of his conversion to Islam.
One might think that I am morbid in entertaining such thoughts and questions in my mind. But morbidity is understandable when one has a feeling that one has not been told the whole story, but only a part of it.
It is the right of the Americans to decide who should be their President. It is my right to worry about the implications of their decision for the rest of the world, including India. (29-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
PAK ISLAMIC ORGANISATIONS ENDORSE OBAMA, PRO-AL QAEDA ARAB GROUPS BACK MCCAIN
B.RAMAN
Despite the strong statements made by Senator Barrack Obama, the Democratic Presidential candidate, expressing his determination to go after Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders even to the extent of sending American troops into Pakistani territory if precise intelligence on the location of OBL is available, jihadi and other fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan believe it would be better for the members of the Pakistani diaspora in the US to vote for Obama. They feel that he will make a break from what they regard as the anti-Muslim policies followed by the Bush Administration. They apprehend that if Senator McCain wins he will follow the Bush policies without any major change.
2. The Shias of Pakistan too want the members of their sect in the US to vote for Obama since his attitude towards Iran is seen by them as less hostile than that of Bush and McCain.
3. In a despatch from Washington published by the "Daily Times" of Lahore on October 28,2008, Khalid Hasan, its Washington Correspondent, reported as follows: " About 90 per cent of American Muslims are expected to vote for Barack Obama on November 4, according to a key Muslim community leader, who wished to remain anonymous since any open or overt expression of support from a Muslim group for Obama is likely to hurt rather than help his bid for the White House. Leading Muslim organisations and groups have been requested by Obama’s people not to declare their support to the Democratic candidate openly as they fear it will be used to decry the Senator as a ‘crypto Muslim’ or ‘jihahidi manqué,’ so much paranoia about Islam and Muslims has been spread by neocon supporters of John McCain and certain radical, ultra conservative church and evangelical groups. According to Agha Saeed of the American Muslim Taskforce on Universal Rights and Elections, “Our goal is to maximise Muslim voter turnout, support candidates who support civil liberties, world peace, universal healthcare, better education, a fair immigration policy and social justice. Even if better candidates were to win on November 4, it will take a long and determined effort to help restore America’s promise, ideals and principles.” The American Muslim Taskforce is planning to release a Muslim-American voter survey in the next few days. "
4. Pro-Al Qaeda Arab elements, however, believe that McCain's victory would be better in the over-all interest of the global jihad against the so-called Crusaders. They are calculating that by persisting with the policies of the Bush administration he could aggravate the economic mess in the US and other Western countries and this would help the cause of the global jihad against the so-called crusaders. They are describing the economic difficulties of the US as a punishment meted out by Allah in reprisal for the US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and project the crisis in the Wall Street and other stock markets of the West as Allah's third front to help the Muslims. It remains to be seen what position, if any, Al Qaeda officially takes.(28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Despite the strong statements made by Senator Barrack Obama, the Democratic Presidential candidate, expressing his determination to go after Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders even to the extent of sending American troops into Pakistani territory if precise intelligence on the location of OBL is available, jihadi and other fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan believe it would be better for the members of the Pakistani diaspora in the US to vote for Obama. They feel that he will make a break from what they regard as the anti-Muslim policies followed by the Bush Administration. They apprehend that if Senator McCain wins he will follow the Bush policies without any major change.
2. The Shias of Pakistan too want the members of their sect in the US to vote for Obama since his attitude towards Iran is seen by them as less hostile than that of Bush and McCain.
3. In a despatch from Washington published by the "Daily Times" of Lahore on October 28,2008, Khalid Hasan, its Washington Correspondent, reported as follows: " About 90 per cent of American Muslims are expected to vote for Barack Obama on November 4, according to a key Muslim community leader, who wished to remain anonymous since any open or overt expression of support from a Muslim group for Obama is likely to hurt rather than help his bid for the White House. Leading Muslim organisations and groups have been requested by Obama’s people not to declare their support to the Democratic candidate openly as they fear it will be used to decry the Senator as a ‘crypto Muslim’ or ‘jihahidi manqué,’ so much paranoia about Islam and Muslims has been spread by neocon supporters of John McCain and certain radical, ultra conservative church and evangelical groups. According to Agha Saeed of the American Muslim Taskforce on Universal Rights and Elections, “Our goal is to maximise Muslim voter turnout, support candidates who support civil liberties, world peace, universal healthcare, better education, a fair immigration policy and social justice. Even if better candidates were to win on November 4, it will take a long and determined effort to help restore America’s promise, ideals and principles.” The American Muslim Taskforce is planning to release a Muslim-American voter survey in the next few days. "
4. Pro-Al Qaeda Arab elements, however, believe that McCain's victory would be better in the over-all interest of the global jihad against the so-called Crusaders. They are calculating that by persisting with the policies of the Bush administration he could aggravate the economic mess in the US and other Western countries and this would help the cause of the global jihad against the so-called crusaders. They are describing the economic difficulties of the US as a punishment meted out by Allah in reprisal for the US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and project the crisis in the Wall Street and other stock markets of the West as Allah's third front to help the Muslims. It remains to be seen what position, if any, Al Qaeda officially takes.(28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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