BUDDHIST-MUSLIM TENSIONS AGGRAVATE IN RAKHINE STATE OF MYANMAR

 

B.RAMAN

The Myanmar Government headed by President Thein Sein is rushing Army reinforcements to the Rakhine State following  a fresh outbreak of clashes between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in different townships of the Rakhine State since October 21,2012.

2.So far, two Rohingya Muslims and one Buddhist have been killed in the clashes and about 1000 houses, mostly belonging to Rohingya Muslims, have allegedly been burnt down, thereby forcing the Muslim residents of these houses to shift to boats.

3. The fresh anti-Muslim campaign has assumed new disturbing features. Buddhist monks have revived their opposition to the Government accepting humanitarian assistance for the Rohingya Muslim displaced persons from the OIC member-countries. Following bitter opposition from the monks, the Government of Thein Sein has reversed its decision to allow the OIC to set up a branch in Yangon. It has now stated that it will allow the OIC to have only a temporary set-up in Yangon to supervise the distribution of humanitarian relief to the internally displaced Muslims and Buddhists in the Rakhine State. The monks are opposing even this and have been insisting there is no need for any humanitarian assistance from the OIC countries.

4.Buddhist students, who took out a procession ( 800) in Sittwe, the capital of the Rakhine State, on October 24,2012, have demanded the introduction  of an anti-Muslim apartheid policy in the local educational institutions. They have been saying that they will not sit in the same classes and stay in the same hostels as Rohingya Muslim students and have been demanding separate classes and separate hostels for the Rohingya Muslims. The Buddhist students, who participated in the procession, denounced the Rohingya Muslims as Bengali terrorists.

5. The Commission set up by the Government to enquire into the causes for the violence since May has not made much headway in its enquiries due to non-cooperation from both the communities.

6. The anti-Government anger of the Muslims of the Rakhine State has started affecting Muslims of sub-continental origin living in Yangon and other cities of Myanmar outside the Rakhine State. Apart from expressing solidarity with the Rohingya Muslims of the Rakhine State, they have been accusing the Government of Thein Sein of failing to give assurances regarding the security of the Muslims living in other parts of Myanmar during the Eid festival on October 26,2012. Muslim groups in Yangon have called for the non-observance of Eid on the ground that the Government has failed to give satisfactory guarantees for their security during the festival.

7. The Government of President Thein Sein is finding itself in a dilemma. It is under growing pressure from the OIC as well as the Western countries to pay attention to the human rights and security of the Rohingya Muslims. At the same time, the anti-Rohingya  demands of the monks and the Buddhist students have public support, even among Buddhist soldiers of the Army.

8. Till now, the Buddhist soldiers of the security forces have remained disciplined and have been complying with the orders of the Government to enforce law and order and to protect the Rohingya Muslims. But will they continue to do so? That is a question that has been troubling the Government.

9. Unfortunately, there is no political leader ---not even Aung San Suu Kyi---- with any influence over the Buddhist monks and students of the Rakhine State who can persuade them to tone down their anti-Rohingya rhetoric and refrain from acts that could further exacerbate the situation. Aung San Suu Kyi continues to maintain a discreet silence on the plight of the Rohingya Muslims lest she lose the support of the Buddhists.

10. The unabated anti-Buddhist anger among the Rohingya Muslims could add to the radicalisation of the Muslim community in the affected region with unpredictable fall-out on the regional  law and order situation. ( 25-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

A DUSSEHRA LIKE NO OTHER--- CYNICISM & CHICANERY

 

B.RAMAN

This has been a Dussehra like no other since we became independent in 1947.

A negative atmosphere and negative forebodings everywhere.

Our dreams of emerging as an Asian power on par with China have received a set-back.

Everything about us seems to be in a bad shape---- the state of politics, the economy, the administration, the style of governance.

There is talk of corruption everywhere, in everything.

The people’s faith in the political leadership has been badly shaken.

The success of a democracy depends on its people and its political leadership.

If the political leaders come to be viewed by growing numbers of citizens as a pack of self-serving, unprincipled and opportunistic money-makers, democracy suffers.

The nation suffers even more.

India presently has the most uninspiring leadership it has ever had.

Leaders with no pride in the country.

Leaders with no principles.

Leaders with no qualms of conscience.

Leaders with no sense of political morality.

It is so in the Congress which is now headed by a set of leaders who will make our greats of the past like Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Rajaji,  Vallabhbhai Patel etc shed tears in heaven.

It is so in the BJP which has become a party of opportunism and cynicism.

It is so in other political formations.

It is so in the civil society.

When Anna Hazare made his appearance in New Delhi last year and took over the moral leadership of not only India Against Corruption, but also India of The Common Man, we all thought we are going to be born again Indians full of pride and hope for the future.

Anna’s moral crusade has lost its momentum and its moral fervour.

The virus of cynicism and political opportunism has infected his followers too.

As we wake up every morning, what we see on the horizon is not messages of hope and good cheer, but forebodings of more bad things to come.

More allegations, more scams, a further weakening of the moral fibre of our society.

Anything goes. That is our driving force.

People like Shri Robert Vadra, son-in-law of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi of Italian origin, and Shri Nitin Gadkari, son of the soil who heads the BJP, are not exceptions to the rule. They are the alleged rule of wheeling and dealing.

Look at the way they have been unabashedly stonewalling demands for the truth, for their explanations on the allegations against them. .

By failing to insist that Shri Vadra account for his huge wealth and remove the suspicions of the people, Mrs.Sonia Gandhi has let herself be suspected as a possible accomplice through silence and inaction.

She has made the Congress that won our independence look no different from unscrupulous political parties of Italy in which  anything goes.

By failing to enforce standards of rectitude on his Ministers and officials, the Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh has made himself be suspected as an equal accomplice.

By failing to insist that Shri Gadkari quit the leadership of the BJP and satisfactorily reply to the allegations of wheeling and dealing of the worst kind indulged in by a political leader, the BJP and the RSS have forfeited their claims to be seen as parties with a difference.

By surrounding himself with aides of dubious credentials, Shri Arvind Kejriwal of IAC has lost his moral authority to lead a  new self-rejuvenating movement with a difference.

It is darkness everywhere.

Only people’s anger can dissipate this darkness.

Where is that anger? (24-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

MISGIVINGS ABOUT NAMO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN WEST

 

B.RAMAN

The misgivings entertained till now in the West regarding the advisability of doing business as usual with  Shri Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, are showing signs of subsiding.

2.That is the message that comes out loud and clear from the visit of Mr.James Bevan, the British High Commissioner to India, to Gujarat on October 22,2012. Till now, the UK was following in the footsteps of other European Union countries in avoiding any governmental, including diplomatic, interaction with the Government of Gujarat in general and Shri Modi in particular. This policy of avoidance of interaction was a sequel to the widespread communal riots in Gujarat in 2002 and the deaths of three Muslims of British origin in the State during the riots. This policy of avoidance of Governmental interactions did not, however, stand in the way of British investors---of Gujarati as well as non-Gujarati origin---investing in Gujarat.

3. The decision to end the policy of avoidance of Governmental interactions was announced by Mr.Hugo Swire, a Minister in the British Foreign Office, some weeks ago. While announcing the decision, he said: “ This will allow us to discuss a wide range of issues of mutual interest in Gujarat. We want to secure justice for the families of the British nationals who were killed in 2002.” It was in pursuance of this announcement that Mr.Bevan visited Gujarat.

4. Among those he reportedly met during his visit were Shri Modi himself, Ms. Kamala Beniwal, the Governor of the State, and Mr.Arjun Modhvadia, the President of the State Congress. Reading between the lines of the statements and observations of Mr.Bevan, two significant points are evident.

5.Firstly, the UK continues to attach importance to the question of human rights in Gujarat. Secondly, it decided to resume interactions with Shri Modi and other members of the Gujarat Government because it sees no reason to blame Shri Modi personally for the violations in 2002. The British move is a clear indication that the British Government no longer feels that alleged sins of commission and omission of Shri Modi contributed to the massacre of the Muslims in 2002, as alleged by his detractors.

6. Sections of the Muslim community of sub-continental origin in the UK have strongly protested against the British decision. It is significant that the British High Commissioner went ahead with his visit to Gujarat despite these protests. This shows that the British Government took its decision after a careful consideration of its implications and there is little likelihood of its reversing the decision under pressure from its Muslim community.

7.Mr.Bevan has also been quoted as saying that the British Government took the decision on its own without prior consultation with the  Governments of other EU countries. There is an element of surprise that Mr.Bevan undertook the visit during the current election campaign in Gujarat, but he did not seem to be worried that this could be politically misinterpreted in India.

8.The only other EU country which has officially commented on the British decision is Germany. Its officials have been quoted as saying that Germany would wait till the elections to the Gujarat Assembly are over before examining the matter.

9.It is likely that after the State elections, other EU countries may follow the British example. The ultimate attitude of the US is not yet clear.

10. If the British decision is followed by other EU countries, it will pave the way for the end of the diplomatic avoidance of Shri Modi followed by the EU countries since 2002. If the US also joins, it could lead to a collateral strengthening of the Prime Ministerial claims of Shri Modi.

11. While Shri Modi has a very good record as the Chief Minister, what stands in the way of his prime ministerial aspirations is his image as non-secular among political elements outside Gujarat and the diplomatic avoidance by the Western countries.

12.With the seeming beginning of the end of the policy of diplomatic avoidance, only the mental reservations still in India outside Gujarat about his credentials as a pan-Indian and all-community leader will stand in the way of his aspirations. But if the BJP, under his leadership, fights the next elections to the Lok Sabha  unitedly and scores a significant victory, it may be difficult for other political formations in the NDA coalition to oppose the acceptance of Shri Modi as the post-2014 P.M. ( 23-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

OBAMA-ROMNEY: WHO CAN BETTER MANAGE THE SAME OLD WORLD?

 

B.RAMAN

 The third and the  last US Presidential debate, a fortnight before the polling day, was held on the morning of October 23,2012 (Indian Standard Time).

2. It was supposed to have been devoted almost exclusively to foreign policy, but economic issues kept intruding into the debate quite often and sometimes in a substantive manner.

3.Even before the debate, it was known that Mr.Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger, is weak on foreign policy issues. He did remarkably well in the first debate which was totally devoted to economic and social issues. He, therefore, kept bringing in economic issues in context and out of context and President Barack Obama found himself forced to react to him in kind.

4. On purely foreign policy issues, Mr.Obama did much better than Mr.Romney, but even then he could not cross the 50 per cent mark in terms of support from the sample voters ( 48 per cent) polled by the CNN after the debate.

5. After the conclusion of all the three debates, it is evident that while Mr.Romney did overwhelmingly better than Mr.Obama in the first debate on the economic issues, Mr.Obama did better than Mr.Romney in the second  and third debates devoted to a mix of the economic and foreign policy issues----but not overwhelmingly so. The election campaign seems to be moving slowly in favour of Mr.Obama but not yet in a decisive manner.

6. The Republican camp has reasons to be disappointed by the performance of  Mr.Romney in the second and third debates. Mr.Romney is bruised, but not yet beaten beyond recovery.

7.It was evident that both the candidates came to the debate with the belief that foreign policy issues may not be crucial in influencing the as yet undecided voters on the polling day. In their calculation, it is economic issues that will influence their preferences. Both the candidates were, therefore, looking for an opportunity to bring in the state of the US economy even while debating the state of the world. As a result, the debate became a bit repetitive and stale.

8. While discussing China, one would have expected them to dwell on questions such as the rapid modernisation of the Chinese Armed Forces, the possible threats to freedom of navigation from the Chinese Navy, China’s cyber and space warfare capabilities etc.

9. Surprisingly, none of these questions were raised in a substantive manner. Instead, they focussed on China’s perceived currency manipulation, its continued violation of intellectual property rights and the threat posed to the US industries from their Chinese counterparts. This showed that while purely foreign policy issues like West Asia, Iran, and the Af-Pak  decisions preoccupy their minds, the impact of foreign policy on the state of the economy was an equally worrisome issue. The spectre of a worsening economy came in the way of the formulation of a clear vision---whether in respect of economic or foreign policies.

10. When the three debates are taken as whole, it is clear that a fortnight before the polling day, the campaign is shaping up to be a contest between the lack-lustre record of an incumbent President and the lack-lustre policy vision of his challenger.

11.This has been a lack-lustre election campaign---with no exciting vision for the future articulated by either Mr.Obama or Mr.Romney. What they were debating was not how they would usher in a brave new world, but how they would better manage the same old world that they have inherited. In the absence of exciting new ideas and new visions for the future, an incumbent even with a lack- lustre record may do better than a lack-lustre challenger, who tries to play it safe and is not a risk-taker.

12. There is no reason for us to feel disappointed that India did not figure in the debate even once. Even the European Union, Japan, South Korea, the ASEAN and Australia did not figure even in passing. This is because these are areas of future opportunities for US policy-making. Today’s debate was mostly about areas of present concern to the US.

13. This may please be read in continuation of my article of October 7,2012, titled “Romney’s Ambivalence on India” at http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.in/2012/10/romneys-ambivalence-on-india.html ( 23-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

BANGLADESHI IN FBI NET: A COUNTER-TERRORISM STING OPERATION

 

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO. 769

B.RAMAN

The media has reported as follows regarding the arrest of a Bangladeshi national in the US on a charge of plotting to carry out an act of terrorism on behalf of Al Qaeda in the US:

“Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Ahsan Nafis, 21, was arrested on Wednesday (October 17,2012) and faces charges of attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction and attempting to provide material support to al Qaeda.

“ Nafis appeared in a Brooklyn court on Wednesday. The criminal complaint against him said he had entered the United States in January and that he had said he was in contact with members of al Qaeda overseas. The complaint said he had travelled by van with a man to a New York warehouse where Nafis assembled what he thought was a 1,000-pound (450-kg) bomb.

“ The man he believed to be an accomplice was in fact an undercover agent working for the FBI and the explosives were not in working condition. He was arrested later in a hotel . Nafis had been a business student at North South University, a prestigious private institution in Bangladesh, before leaving to study computer science in the United States. His father, a senior vice president of a private bank, said Nafis was the more religious of his two children, but in no way a fanatic.”

2. Other details available through media briefing by the US authorities indicate as follows: “ Nafis actively sought out other Al Qaeda contacts in the US to help him carry out a terror attack. One of the individuals he had attempted to recruit was a source for the FBI.FBI agents and the New York Police closely monitored Nafis as he attempted to implement his plan.” He wanted to blow up the Federal Reserve building in New York.

3. Even though the criminal complaint filed against Nafis in the Brooklyn court alleged that he “was in contact with members of Al Qaeda overseas”, no details of these contacts have been given. All that one knows is that Nafis wanted to recruit a person in New York, who was, in fact, a source of the FBI. He reported the matter to the FBI and on their instructions introduced Nafis to an FBI operative.

4. It would seem that all the subsequent meetings of  Nafis were with this FBI operative who posed as close to Al Qaeda and that this FBI operative arranged for him what he described as explosives which, in fact, were not. All the discussions of Nafis took place not with an Al Qaeda member, but with the FBI operative who posed as an Al Qaeda facilitator. It is not clear to what extent the ideas for the attack such as the selection of the target etc came from Nafis and to what extent these were planted in his mind by the FBI operative in order to make out a case for arresting him.

5. No other arrests have been made. This would indicate that he was not part of any terrorist sleeper cell. The FBI has not produced any evidence so far to show that Nafis was already in touch with Al Qaeda when he was in Bangladesh or that he had travelled to Pakistan to meet jihadi terrorists for undergoing any training. This is not the way Al Qaeda operates----send a novice without any training to the US to procure explosives and blow up important buildings.

6. This appears to be one of those counter-terrorism sting operations being used by the FBI since 9/11 for preventing identified elements with a radical bent of mind from taking to terrorism. It is quite likely the FBI will keep him in custody for some months, enter into a plea bargain with him under which he will be made to confess before the court, get him sentenced and then deport him to Bangladesh on the ground that he co-operated with the FBI in the investigations.

7.Such counter-terrorism sting operations as a way of controlling terrorism are not encouraged by courts in other countries, but in the US convictions are awarded by courts in such operations despite their dubious legality.

8. One should not over-state the significance of this arrest. (19-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

MORE UNREST IN XINJIANG

 

 

 

B.RAMAN

 

According to a belated report disseminated by Radio Free Asia, there has been a suicide attack in the interior areas of Xinjiang.

2. Coinciding with the observance of the Chinese National Day on October 1,2012, an unidentified motorcyclist reportedly  drove into a post of the People’s Armed Police at Kargilik (in Chinese Yecheng) in the Kashgar Prefecture causing an explosion which killed a number of policemen. A local villager has been quoted as saying that the PAP post suffered about 20 casualties, but there has been no confirmation of the details of the attack from the local authorities.

3.This area had seen three incidents since December last. In the December incident, the Chinese border authorities allegedly shot dead seven Uighurs-including some women and children-- who were trying to illegally flee to Pakistan through the Guma area. After the incident, they projected them as terrorist suspects.

4.In the second incident, believed to be in retaliation for this, 20 persons, mostly Han Chinese, were stabbed to death in the Kargilik area in February. The third incident on October 1,2012, is also believed to be in retaliation for the December incident.

5. For the last one month, the Chinese authorities have stepped up physical security in the Xinjiang province as a precautionary measure before the forthcoming 18^th Congress of the Communist Party of China on November 8. Despite this, the suicide attack of October 1 has taken place. Following this suicide attack, more PAP units from outside the province have been inducted into Xinjiang to further tighten security.

6. Meanwhile, like the Tibetan diaspora, representatives of the Uighur diaspora have also held  on October 1 a brain-storming session at Munich in Germany to discuss the likely policies of the new CPC leadership which will be taking over on November 8 towards the Uighurs. Mr.Xi Jinping will be taking over as the General Secretary of the Party from Mr.Hu Jintao. He will take over as the State President from Mr.Hu in March next year.

7. Xi is the  son of liberal-minded former Vice Premier Xi Zhongxun, who was purged from the CPC ahead of the Cultural Revolution. Before his purge, it used to be said that he was sympathetic to the ethnic minorities and had a close personal friendship with His Holiness the Dalai Lama. Moreover, the wife of Mr.Xi Jinping is reported to be a practising Buddhist.

8.Despite these factors, Mr.Xi Jinping has till now subscribed to the party’s two-pronged policy of firm enforcement of law and order in Tibet and Xinjiang and a rapid economic development of these areas in order to bring them on par with the economic development in the Han areas of China. He has also been subscribing to the policy of stepped-up Han migration to these areas to give the Hans an effective control.

9.In view of this, any hopes among members of the Tibetan and Uighur diaspora abroad that Mr.Xi Jinping might soften the policy towards the ethnic minorities may not be based on reality.(18-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

INDIA-AUSTRALIA: NEED TO DIVERSIFY COOPERATION

 

 

 

B.RAMAN

The current three-day visit of Australian Prime Minister Ms.Julia Gillard to India for talks with Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh and other leaders and captains of Indian industry indicates the poverty of bilateral strategic thinking in both the countries in the Government and the non-Governmental levels.

2. Most of the analytical articles that I have read are preoccupied with the question how soon India can hope to start importing uranium from Australia for its civilian nuclear power programme. India has had reasons to be thankful to Ms.Gillard for reversing her Labour Party’s opposition to the sale of uranium to India on the ground that India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement.

3. Ever since her arrival in India, the Australian Prime Minister has been at pains to discourage exaggerated expectations in India that the uranium sales may start immediately. She has been pointing out that the sale of uranium has to be preceded by the conclusion of a civil nuclear co-operation agreement with India with appropriate safeguards to prevent the diversion of the uranium sold by Australia for military purposes. In her estimate, it will take at least another two years before uranium sales can start.

4.Ever since India’s relations with the US started improving under the administration of then President George Bush ( 2000-08), it has had a beneficial fall-out for Indo-Australian relations too with increased military-to-military contacts and exercises, particularly greater co-operation between the two Navies and greater intellectual exchanges with a strategic focus. Australia’s diplomatic and consular presence in India has expanded, more Indian students have been going to Australia for higher education and more Indian academics are being invited to Australia on short or long-term fellowships. However, the academic exchanges have largely remained one way from India to Australia and not the other way round.

5.The poor infrastructure and other facilities in Indian universities have come in the way of the exchanges being two-way. Surprisingly, even in the prestigious Indian Institutes of Technology and Business Administration Schools, Australian presence has been an exception. The fascination in Indian academic circles for exchanges with institutions of higher learning in Europe and the USA have come in the way of an increase in exchanges with Australia.

6. Australian concerns over jihadi terrorism after the Bali terrorist strike of October 2002 directed largely against  Australian tourists by the Jemmah Islamia have led to a greater exchange of counter-terrorism intelligence between the two countries. While the military-military relations between the two countries have picked up momentum, the police-police relations have not expanded.

7.Some years ago during a visit to the National Police Academy at Hyderabad, I did come across two Australian police officers who were doing an attachment with the Hyderabad Academy, but no thought seems to have been given by our National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) to the scope for greater exchanges between the police institutions of the countries for strengthening  the capabilities of the Indian police in the field of forensic examination, with particular reference to use of modern technology for the prevention and detection of improvised explosive devices (IEDs).Many ASEAN countries have benefited from Australian expertise and capabilities in forensics and scientific methods of investigation. There is no valid reason why we should not do so too.

8. When our policy makers and strategic analysts talk of strategic co-operation with Australia, their minds are over-focussed on military-related co-operation. The scope for expanding non-military dimensions of the co-operation has not received the attention it deserves.

9.An important field that has remained untapped is the modernisation of our agriculture. For some time now, our Prime Minister has been talking of the need for a second green revolution to further improve our  wheat production. There is a tremendous scope for Indo-Australian co-operation for modernising the cultivation of fruits and vegetables through the establishment of Special Agricultural Zones.

10. Even as the Australian Prime Minister was holding talks in New Delhi, Ms.J.Jayalalita, the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, inaugurated on October 17,2012, a joint Indo-Israeli project for co-operation in the improvement of vegetable and fruit cultivation in Tamil Nadu. There is no reason why we cannot supplement it with Australian co-operation.

11. There is a need for a more comprehensive thinking on the scope for multi-dimensional co-operation between India and Australia. It is hoped that the Australian Prime Minister’s visit will lead to such thinking. ( 17-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)