B.RAMAN
The humiliating embarrassment faced by us due to the unsatisfactory state of preparations for the Commonwealth Games (CWG) starting on October 3 could be attributed to the failure of the political leadership to realise the importance of well-conducted CWG from the point of view of our national pride and image; corruption and cronyism; a casual approach to the preparations; lack of supervision at all levels; the national inability to stick to time-schedules; over-confidence; and denial of the existence of serious problems when those problems were exposed by the media.
2. When Beijing was chosen as the host of the 2008 Olympics and Guangzhou as the host of the 2010 Asian Games being held in November, the Communist Party of China and their Government saw it as an opportunity to show-case China and its organising skills to the world and to convince the world that China has arrived as a major power. The self-confidence gained by the Party and the Government as a result of the spectacular success of the Olympics is partly behind China's increasing assertiveness in the world stage after the Olympics. All sections of the Chinese civil society and Government worked together with total dedication to demonstrate that China can do it. And China did it.
3. In India, the political leadership and the Government totally failed to grasp the political significance of New Delhi being chosen to host the CWG. The world, which has been keenly watching the competition for regional leadership between India and China, wanted India to be given an opportunity to show that what China can do, it can do equally well, if not better. Let there be no mistake about it. The good wishes of the democratic world were with India. It wanted India to make a success of the CWG and would have helped India in any way it could to make a success of it.
4.The political significance of the CWG from the point of view of our national stature, pride and image was not grasped in time by the political leadership. The CWG was treated by the political leadership as one more mega sports event to be handled by the Organising Committee with the help of the Delhi Government. It failed to look upon it as a national task requiring the active involvement of the Government of India. Only in the last few days the political importance of the Games as image-builder and projector has been realised by the Government of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh and it has been moving heaven and earth to make the CWG a success even at this late hour. Even if we succeed, it will not erase from the minds of the international community and our own citizens the extreme embarrassment and humiliation that we had to face due to the images of a "Filthy and Incompetent India" and not a "Shining and Leading India" that were transmitted across the world. What we saw was not "Chindia In Action" with China and India in a friendly competition to project to the world the best in each of them, but "India In Inaction" like a python after a heavy meal.
5. The Government of India left everything in the hands of the Organising Committee, which was packed with people without a sense of pride. If they had national pride, they would not have allowed corruption and cronyism take hold of the Committee and come in the way of timely and effective preparations. The Committee projected to the outside world not only the image of a "Filthy and Incompetent India", but also a "Corrupt India" for whose political and bureaucratic class acquiring money by hook or by crook was more important than preserving national honour.
6. The preparations were politicised. The head of the Organising Committee and of the Delhi Administration were both blue-eyed individuals of the ruling Congress (I). For the Congress (I), they can do no wrong. The Congress party and its Government failed to take notice of even the most serious allegations being made against them. Even today after all the national humiliation and embarrassment, the Government and the Congress (I) are not prepared to act against them. They have been marginalised, but an exercise is on to preserve their honour despite their misdeeds and failures.
7.Many national deficiencies, which have become part of our psyche, made matters worse. The Organising Committee had about seven years to prepare for the Games. It did nothing for nearly four years and stirred itself up only after much time had been wasted. There was a plethora of organizations to attend to various aspects of the preparations, but no co-ordination among them. The Government failed to appoint a high-power apex body to co-ordinate as Indira Gandhi had done to make a success of the 1982 Asian Games. She did not see the Asian Games purely as a sports event. She also saw it as an event which could make or mar India’s prestige if not properly managed. She was not interested in how many medals India would win. She was interested in ensuring that the Games were conducted with clock-like precision without worrying about who won and who lost.
8. Despite the late start of the preparations for the CWG and despite serious failures to adhere to time schedules, an over-confident Organising Committee sought to give the impression that like the proverbial tortoise, Indians would somehow make a last-minute dash and make the Games a resounding success. Their over-confidence might prove misplaced.
9. The supervision, as always it happens, was shoddy. The impressive Games Village was completed in time, but many of the apartments were apparently left unlocked and unguarded. The bathrooms were misused by strangers making them filthy. One does not seem to have realized the serious security implications of leaving the apartments unlocked and unguarded.
10. For the annual Republic Day parade, we hold rehearsals every alternate day for two weeks so that everybody is familiar with his or her security duties and the participants in the parade gain confidence. It is stated that China, which does not face a serious problem of terrorism in Beijing, started holding rehearsals of the opening and closing ceremonies and the security drill six months before the Games. It initiated many security measures like bans on the sale and carriage of substances such as nitrogenous fertilizers which could be used as explosives a month before the Games.
11. There are five days to go before the Games and we are yet to hold a single comprehensive rehearsal. Our over-confidence is not only in respect of administrative matters, but also security matters. We are supremely confident that we will be able to prevent any security breaches. Most probably, we will, but we are taking unnecessary risks by not following in a timely manner the drill necessary for such events.
12. Once the Games are over ----hopefully successfully---- the Government should hold a detailed enquiry into the sins of commission and omission and take corrective measures to ensure that such deficiencies are not repeated in future.( 27-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, September 27, 2010
Sunday, September 26, 2010
INDIA'S SELF-CREATED HUMILIATION
B.RAMAN
THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS WERE SENT BY ME IN RESPONSE TO AN E-MAIL RECEIVED BY ME ON SEPTEMBER 26 REGARDING THE COMMONWEALTH GAMES FIASCO
I have been writing for nearly two years that the so-called community of strategic analysts in Delhi has come to be dominated by a group of wishful-thinkers totally cut off from ground reality and that they have been creating an illusion in our minds about the emergence of India as a major power. My mind goes back to 1962 when a small group of officials, including B.N.Mallick. the then head of the IB, created illusions of our capabilities in the minds of our leaders and people. We paid a heavy price. The current events show we have not learnt the appropriate lessons.I shudder to think what could be the real state of our infrastructure in the North-East. I hope illusions of our strength are not being created there too. The PLA must be closely watching.Moments of humiliation are moments of weakness in the history of a nation.One has to closely watch what the PLA does.
Why India cannot be an Asian power like China ( ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ME IN REDIFF.COM ON NOVEMBER 20,2009)
November 20, 2009 14:39 IST
Power and influence are not given. They are taken. China knows how to take it, India does not, says strategic expert B Raman.
A few observations on the eve of Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh visit to the United States from November 23 to 26.
No thinking has been ever done in India as to what it expects out of a long-term strategic relationship with the US. It is always the US which decides what it will give to India and it is New Delhi which accepts.
It was so with the nuclear deal which was offered by then US President George W Bush in July 2005. Manmohan Singh was pleasantly surprised when Bush offered it and then we followed it up. India's expectations from the US in the past were limited to US pressure on Pakistan to stop using terrorism against India, removal of restrictions on the supply of modern dual-use technology to India and US support for India's permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council.
They remain the same. Any strategic relationship has to be a quid pro quo relationship. Since the US has hardly any dependence on India in any matter, there is no scope for any quid pro quo.
India visualises itself as an Asian power on par with China. Beijing does not see it this way. China views India as a sub-regional Asian power and wants to keep its influence restricted to its immediate neighbourhood. US president Barack Obama's visit to China has uncomfortably brought out to India that there is a convergence of perceptions between China and the Obama Administration on the limited regional role of India.
China's pre-eminence has been recognised by Obama. Obama has re-hyphenated India-Pakistan relations and quietly relegated India to the role of a sub-regional power whose aspirations of having a status on par with China are unrealistic.
In geopolitical matters, there is no futuristic thinking in India. The quality of Indian thinking and analysis -- strategic and tactical -- is poor. What passes for analysis in India is just wishful-thinking.
Nobody in India has realised and brought out that for the first time the US, Japan and Australia have a leadership which does not rate highly India's potential as an emerging power. There is less and less talk of Chindia. Even today, many in India are not aware that the new Japanese government is not as enthusiastic about India as the previous government was. There has been no exercise in India to analyse future scenarios in US-Japan relationship.
Someone once said that power and influence are not given. They are taken. China has shown how to take it. India does not have the political will and courage to fight for it and take it. It is hoping that the US will give it. Bush and Condoleezza Rice seemed inclined to bestow on India the status of an Asian power on par with China. The Obama Administration does not seem to be so inclined.
B Raman
THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS WERE SENT BY ME IN RESPONSE TO AN E-MAIL RECEIVED BY ME ON SEPTEMBER 26 REGARDING THE COMMONWEALTH GAMES FIASCO
I have been writing for nearly two years that the so-called community of strategic analysts in Delhi has come to be dominated by a group of wishful-thinkers totally cut off from ground reality and that they have been creating an illusion in our minds about the emergence of India as a major power. My mind goes back to 1962 when a small group of officials, including B.N.Mallick. the then head of the IB, created illusions of our capabilities in the minds of our leaders and people. We paid a heavy price. The current events show we have not learnt the appropriate lessons.I shudder to think what could be the real state of our infrastructure in the North-East. I hope illusions of our strength are not being created there too. The PLA must be closely watching.Moments of humiliation are moments of weakness in the history of a nation.One has to closely watch what the PLA does.
Why India cannot be an Asian power like China ( ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ME IN REDIFF.COM ON NOVEMBER 20,2009)
November 20, 2009 14:39 IST
Power and influence are not given. They are taken. China knows how to take it, India does not, says strategic expert B Raman.
A few observations on the eve of Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh visit to the United States from November 23 to 26.
No thinking has been ever done in India as to what it expects out of a long-term strategic relationship with the US. It is always the US which decides what it will give to India and it is New Delhi which accepts.
It was so with the nuclear deal which was offered by then US President George W Bush in July 2005. Manmohan Singh was pleasantly surprised when Bush offered it and then we followed it up. India's expectations from the US in the past were limited to US pressure on Pakistan to stop using terrorism against India, removal of restrictions on the supply of modern dual-use technology to India and US support for India's permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council.
They remain the same. Any strategic relationship has to be a quid pro quo relationship. Since the US has hardly any dependence on India in any matter, there is no scope for any quid pro quo.
India visualises itself as an Asian power on par with China. Beijing does not see it this way. China views India as a sub-regional Asian power and wants to keep its influence restricted to its immediate neighbourhood. US president Barack Obama's visit to China has uncomfortably brought out to India that there is a convergence of perceptions between China and the Obama Administration on the limited regional role of India.
China's pre-eminence has been recognised by Obama. Obama has re-hyphenated India-Pakistan relations and quietly relegated India to the role of a sub-regional power whose aspirations of having a status on par with China are unrealistic.
In geopolitical matters, there is no futuristic thinking in India. The quality of Indian thinking and analysis -- strategic and tactical -- is poor. What passes for analysis in India is just wishful-thinking.
Nobody in India has realised and brought out that for the first time the US, Japan and Australia have a leadership which does not rate highly India's potential as an emerging power. There is less and less talk of Chindia. Even today, many in India are not aware that the new Japanese government is not as enthusiastic about India as the previous government was. There has been no exercise in India to analyse future scenarios in US-Japan relationship.
Someone once said that power and influence are not given. They are taken. China has shown how to take it. India does not have the political will and courage to fight for it and take it. It is hoping that the US will give it. Bush and Condoleezza Rice seemed inclined to bestow on India the status of an Asian power on par with China. The Obama Administration does not seem to be so inclined.
B Raman
FLOOD RELIEF: CHINESE FOCUS ON GILGIT-BALTISTAN & SINDH
B.RAMAN
The Chinese authorities have been highlighting two path-breaking aspects of their assistance for flood relief to Pakistan, which started on August 1,2010, and continues since then.
2. The first is the value of the assistance, which has already reached US $ 250 million (pledges plus actuals). This includes a sum of US $ 200 million pledged by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, in his address to the UN General Assembly in New York on September 22. According to Chinese officials, this is the largest humanitarian relief commitment overseas ever made by China.
3. The second is the deployment of humanitarian relief teams by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for assisting the Pakistani army in its aid efforts. According to Chinese officials, this is the first time that the PLA’s specially-trained disaster relief teams have been deployed abroad in large numbers. The PLA has deployed three teams----two in Sindh and one in Gilgit-Baltistan. Mr. Huang Xilian, Deputy Chief of the Chinese mission in Islamabad, told a media briefing in Islamabad on September 23 as follows: “ It is for the first time in history that China has sent so many rescue and medical teams across its borders. The Chinese government sent a 55-member international search and rescue team, including 36 doctors and 19 technical support personnel, to the worst-hit region of Thatta in Sindh province late last month (August), which was the first international team to reach flood-hit areas of Thatta region. They brought with them 25 tons of high-tech medical equipment and medicine worth RMB 8 million. The second medical team of PLA, comprising 68 members along with relief goods including medicines weighing 80 tonnes, came to Pakistan and were deployed around the Sehwan area of Sindh province. Twenty members of this team are female, providing medical care to women and children. This is a record high in the history of PLA’s foreign medical aid. The fact that China has sent some 200 doctors and paramedics in three medical rescue teams by now is a record high in China ‘s foreign medical rescue history.”
4.The third disaster relief team has been deployed in the Hunza area of Gilgit-Baltistan since January when large areas were flooded following a burst of a large artificial lake created by a huge landslide.
5. The PLA command in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang despatched four military helicopters to carry out rescue and relief missions around the Hyderabad area of Sindh. A press release by the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad said: “It is the first time Chinese military helicopters carry out an overseas mission. The four military helicopters from China’s Xinjiang military area command took off from a military airfield in the western region along with ground support and relief supplies. They were previously engaged in transportation and search and rescue operations in the wake of several major natural disasters in China.” The helicopters are being flown by Chinese crew with one or two observers from the Pakistani army traveling in each flight.
6. The Chinese have mentioned the total PLA disaster relief personnel deputed to Sindh as about 200. They have not mentioned the total number sent to Gilgit-Baltistan, which includes disaster relief teams as well as engineering teams for repairing the badly damaged Karakoram Highway. Independent sources say that the total number of PLA personnel in the Gilgit-Baltistan area would be about 500.
7.The Chinese have been emphasizing that the assistance given by them till now is in the way of emergency relief and that they will be giving separate assistance later for the reconstruction of the damaged economy.
8. It is noticed that security considerations have played an important role in deciding the deployment of the deputed Chinese personnel. They have been deployed mostly in Sindh and Gilgit-Baltistan where, in the perception of the Chinese, there are unlikely to be any serious threats to the Chinese personnel. In the rest of the country (Punjab, Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa and the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas ) their assistance has been in kind. They seem to have avoided deputing any Chinese personnel for participating in ground operations . In the past there had been attacks on Chinese engineers in Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa and FATA. In Punjab, there are pockets of Uighurs from the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang studying in madrasas or working. Many of them are suspected to have links with the so-called Punjabi Taliban organizations. Hence, the absence of Chinese relief teams in Punjab.
9. Despite the damages suffered by the Karakoram Highway due to the landslide of January and the floods of August, the Chinese engineers from the PLA have managed to keep the traffic moving. While the initial assistance in the beginning of August was airlifted to Islamabad from Chinese-controlled Xinjiang, the subsequent assistance has been coming by road along the Karakoram Highway. 101 Chinese trucks reached the Sust Dry Port via the Khunjerab Pass on Sept. 1, carrying flour and cooking oil. In fact, since the landslide and floods of January, the people living in the Hunza area are being kept largely sustained by the PLA in the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang region since the Pakistan Army is not able to reach them. ( 26-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Chinese authorities have been highlighting two path-breaking aspects of their assistance for flood relief to Pakistan, which started on August 1,2010, and continues since then.
2. The first is the value of the assistance, which has already reached US $ 250 million (pledges plus actuals). This includes a sum of US $ 200 million pledged by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, in his address to the UN General Assembly in New York on September 22. According to Chinese officials, this is the largest humanitarian relief commitment overseas ever made by China.
3. The second is the deployment of humanitarian relief teams by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for assisting the Pakistani army in its aid efforts. According to Chinese officials, this is the first time that the PLA’s specially-trained disaster relief teams have been deployed abroad in large numbers. The PLA has deployed three teams----two in Sindh and one in Gilgit-Baltistan. Mr. Huang Xilian, Deputy Chief of the Chinese mission in Islamabad, told a media briefing in Islamabad on September 23 as follows: “ It is for the first time in history that China has sent so many rescue and medical teams across its borders. The Chinese government sent a 55-member international search and rescue team, including 36 doctors and 19 technical support personnel, to the worst-hit region of Thatta in Sindh province late last month (August), which was the first international team to reach flood-hit areas of Thatta region. They brought with them 25 tons of high-tech medical equipment and medicine worth RMB 8 million. The second medical team of PLA, comprising 68 members along with relief goods including medicines weighing 80 tonnes, came to Pakistan and were deployed around the Sehwan area of Sindh province. Twenty members of this team are female, providing medical care to women and children. This is a record high in the history of PLA’s foreign medical aid. The fact that China has sent some 200 doctors and paramedics in three medical rescue teams by now is a record high in China ‘s foreign medical rescue history.”
4.The third disaster relief team has been deployed in the Hunza area of Gilgit-Baltistan since January when large areas were flooded following a burst of a large artificial lake created by a huge landslide.
5. The PLA command in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang despatched four military helicopters to carry out rescue and relief missions around the Hyderabad area of Sindh. A press release by the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad said: “It is the first time Chinese military helicopters carry out an overseas mission. The four military helicopters from China’s Xinjiang military area command took off from a military airfield in the western region along with ground support and relief supplies. They were previously engaged in transportation and search and rescue operations in the wake of several major natural disasters in China.” The helicopters are being flown by Chinese crew with one or two observers from the Pakistani army traveling in each flight.
6. The Chinese have mentioned the total PLA disaster relief personnel deputed to Sindh as about 200. They have not mentioned the total number sent to Gilgit-Baltistan, which includes disaster relief teams as well as engineering teams for repairing the badly damaged Karakoram Highway. Independent sources say that the total number of PLA personnel in the Gilgit-Baltistan area would be about 500.
7.The Chinese have been emphasizing that the assistance given by them till now is in the way of emergency relief and that they will be giving separate assistance later for the reconstruction of the damaged economy.
8. It is noticed that security considerations have played an important role in deciding the deployment of the deputed Chinese personnel. They have been deployed mostly in Sindh and Gilgit-Baltistan where, in the perception of the Chinese, there are unlikely to be any serious threats to the Chinese personnel. In the rest of the country (Punjab, Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa and the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas ) their assistance has been in kind. They seem to have avoided deputing any Chinese personnel for participating in ground operations . In the past there had been attacks on Chinese engineers in Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa and FATA. In Punjab, there are pockets of Uighurs from the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang studying in madrasas or working. Many of them are suspected to have links with the so-called Punjabi Taliban organizations. Hence, the absence of Chinese relief teams in Punjab.
9. Despite the damages suffered by the Karakoram Highway due to the landslide of January and the floods of August, the Chinese engineers from the PLA have managed to keep the traffic moving. While the initial assistance in the beginning of August was airlifted to Islamabad from Chinese-controlled Xinjiang, the subsequent assistance has been coming by road along the Karakoram Highway. 101 Chinese trucks reached the Sust Dry Port via the Khunjerab Pass on Sept. 1, carrying flour and cooking oil. In fact, since the landslide and floods of January, the people living in the Hunza area are being kept largely sustained by the PLA in the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang region since the Pakistan Army is not able to reach them. ( 26-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, September 25, 2010
CAN CHINA SELL ONE GW NUCLEAR POWER REACTOR TO PAKISTAN WITHOUT FRENCH & NSG APPROVAL?
B.RAMAN
According to the Reuters news agency, Mr.Qiu Jiangang, Vice-President of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), told a conference at Beijing on September 20,2010, that China and Pakistan had signed contracts under which two more nuclear power stations of 300 MWs each (Chashma III and Chashma IV) would be set up by the CNNC at Chashma in Pakistan’s Punjab.These would be similar to Chinese-constructed Chashma I, which is already operating, and Chashma II which is under construction. This was already known.
2.What was new in his statement was his disclosure that the CNNC was holding talks with the Pakistani authorities for the supply of a bigger nuclear power station of one gigawatt capacity. He did not indicate when the talks started, at what stage are the talks presently and where it is proposed to set up the new bigger power station if the talks end in an agreement.
3.The Reuters news agency has quoted the CNNC as stating as follows in a recent article carried by the journal “Seeking Truth”,published by the Communist Party of China: "We must rely on the Pakistan Chashma nuclear power project to improve our ability to contract for nuclear power projects abroad, and to open up the foreign market for nuclear energy."
4. The Chashma technology is Chinese. China has, therefore, the right to export it, but in the case of Pakistan, it needs the clearance of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG), since Pakistan is not a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Beijing has been trying to circumvent the need for prior clearance by the NSG by projecting Chashma III and IV as coming under the purview of the original agreement on Chashma I ( the grand-father provision ). Its contention has not yet been accepted by some NSG member-countries, including the US. Despite this, Beijing has hinted on more than one occasion that it will go ahead with the supply of Chashma III and IV even without the approval of the NSG.
5. However, China's one gigawatt technology is not indigenous. China bought it from Areva, a French company formed by the merger of Frematome, Cogema and Technicatome.In November 2007, AREVA agreed to a €8 billion deal with the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group to supply them with two EPRs (European Pressurised Reactor) in Taishan, Guangdong. Under the terms of the agreement, AREVA will also help operate the plant, including the reprocessing of the spent fuel.
6. Based on the EPR technology of French origin,the Chinese claim to have developed a technology of their own called CPR--1000 (Chinese Pressurised Reactor). According to the magazine "Nuclear Engineering International, "the CPR-1000 is a Generation II, 1080MW pressurized water reactor, based on French- three-loop design. Over 60 design improvements have been made by the Chinese, including modifications to the control room, fuel, and the introduction of half speed turbo generators (supplied by Alstom). However, Areva retains intellectual property rights for the CPR-1000, which constrains overseas sales. To sell abroad the Chinese would need agreement from Areva on a case-by-case basis, which seems unlikely as the CPR-1000 could be in competition with the Areva/MHI Atmea 1 design."
7. It is understood Pakistan has been trying to get from the Chinese the CPR--1000 reactor.This would require two approvals---- from the Areva of France which sold the technology to the Chinese while retaining the intellectual property rights and the NSG. Even if one accepts the plausibility that Chashma III and IV could be grand-fathered under the original agreement relating to Chashma I, the grand-father clause cannot apply to the CPR--1000 reactor, which will have three times the capacity of Chashma I and whose technology was acquired by the Chinese three years after China joined the NSG after accepting its safeguards against sales to non-signatories of the NPT.
8. The matter needs to be strongly taken up by the Government of India with the French and the NSG members. ( 25-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
According to the Reuters news agency, Mr.Qiu Jiangang, Vice-President of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), told a conference at Beijing on September 20,2010, that China and Pakistan had signed contracts under which two more nuclear power stations of 300 MWs each (Chashma III and Chashma IV) would be set up by the CNNC at Chashma in Pakistan’s Punjab.These would be similar to Chinese-constructed Chashma I, which is already operating, and Chashma II which is under construction. This was already known.
2.What was new in his statement was his disclosure that the CNNC was holding talks with the Pakistani authorities for the supply of a bigger nuclear power station of one gigawatt capacity. He did not indicate when the talks started, at what stage are the talks presently and where it is proposed to set up the new bigger power station if the talks end in an agreement.
3.The Reuters news agency has quoted the CNNC as stating as follows in a recent article carried by the journal “Seeking Truth”,published by the Communist Party of China: "We must rely on the Pakistan Chashma nuclear power project to improve our ability to contract for nuclear power projects abroad, and to open up the foreign market for nuclear energy."
4. The Chashma technology is Chinese. China has, therefore, the right to export it, but in the case of Pakistan, it needs the clearance of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG), since Pakistan is not a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Beijing has been trying to circumvent the need for prior clearance by the NSG by projecting Chashma III and IV as coming under the purview of the original agreement on Chashma I ( the grand-father provision ). Its contention has not yet been accepted by some NSG member-countries, including the US. Despite this, Beijing has hinted on more than one occasion that it will go ahead with the supply of Chashma III and IV even without the approval of the NSG.
5. However, China's one gigawatt technology is not indigenous. China bought it from Areva, a French company formed by the merger of Frematome, Cogema and Technicatome.In November 2007, AREVA agreed to a €8 billion deal with the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group to supply them with two EPRs (European Pressurised Reactor) in Taishan, Guangdong. Under the terms of the agreement, AREVA will also help operate the plant, including the reprocessing of the spent fuel.
6. Based on the EPR technology of French origin,the Chinese claim to have developed a technology of their own called CPR--1000 (Chinese Pressurised Reactor). According to the magazine "Nuclear Engineering International, "the CPR-1000 is a Generation II, 1080MW pressurized water reactor, based on French- three-loop design. Over 60 design improvements have been made by the Chinese, including modifications to the control room, fuel, and the introduction of half speed turbo generators (supplied by Alstom). However, Areva retains intellectual property rights for the CPR-1000, which constrains overseas sales. To sell abroad the Chinese would need agreement from Areva on a case-by-case basis, which seems unlikely as the CPR-1000 could be in competition with the Areva/MHI Atmea 1 design."
7. It is understood Pakistan has been trying to get from the Chinese the CPR--1000 reactor.This would require two approvals---- from the Areva of France which sold the technology to the Chinese while retaining the intellectual property rights and the NSG. Even if one accepts the plausibility that Chashma III and IV could be grand-fathered under the original agreement relating to Chashma I, the grand-father clause cannot apply to the CPR--1000 reactor, which will have three times the capacity of Chashma I and whose technology was acquired by the Chinese three years after China joined the NSG after accepting its safeguards against sales to non-signatories of the NPT.
8. The matter needs to be strongly taken up by the Government of India with the French and the NSG members. ( 25-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, September 24, 2010
CHINA TESTS ITS STRATEGIC AIR POWER CAPABILITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
B.RAMAN
The Chinese Air Force has tested its strategic air power capability for air strikes and bombing against long-distance targets in the counter-terrorism exercise under the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) being held at Matybulak in Kazakhstan between September 9 and 25,2010. About 5,000 troops from China, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan are taking part in the exercise. Uzbekistan is not participating.
2. The contingent of about 1000 Chinese troops participating in the exercise is commanded by Gen.Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Since its birth, the SCO had held seven joint counter-terrorism exercises code-named “Peace Mission”. In the previous exercises, the focus was on the use of ground troops, tanks, missiles and helicopters in counter-terrorism operations. In Peace Mission 2009 held last year, the theme was counter-terrorism operations to rescue hostages taken by an armed terrorist group in an urban setting which threatened to blow up a chemical plant. The terrorists were projected last year as armed with man-portable surface-to-air missiles and having an unspecified capability for an attack mounted from air. For the first time since these exercises started. PLA and Russian forces were required last year to integrate air and air defense operations, including the use of their own surface-to-air missiles.
3.The theme of the Peace Mission 2010 exercise currently being held is not known, but it is noticed that the Chinese have tested during the exercise their capability for mounting long-distance air operations involving the use of bombers and fighter planes. A Xinhua report of September 21 on this part of the exercise stated as follows: “Six warplanes took off from within China and launched long-distance "sudden attacks" in neighboring Kazakhstan in the on-going anti-terror drill of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, said a Chinese General. The simulated cross-border strikes were the first by the Chinese Air Force, according to Major General Meng Guoping, deputy commander of the Chinese military participating in the drill. The six warplanes --- four H-6H bombers and two J-10 fighter jets --- were split into two missions. They were supported by an air early warning aircraft and were refueled by a flying tanker before they crossed the border into Kazakhstan, said the General. Although the drill venue is within the range of both warplanes, they were refueled in the air to ensure a complete success of their missions, said General Meng. Meng said by carrying out such a move in the war games, the Chinese Air Force is trying to build an integrated air battle group encompassing early warning, command, long-distance bombing, escort and air refueling. “
4. Gen. Ma Xiaotian has reportedly described the exercise as purely a strategic action against terrorism not directed against any country. The Chinese media has quoted him as saying : “The ongoing exericse never targets or constitutes a threat to any country.”
5. The capability for long-distance air operations of the kind tested by the Chinese would have little use against urban terrorist groups such as the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IMET) operating in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang. They would be more relevant for possible use against India in the event of a military conflict. The indications are that the Chinese have tested their capability for strategic air strikes against Indian positions across the Tibetan border by making use of the current SCO counter-terrorism exercises in Kazakhstan. The Indian observer to the exercise, if there is one, should be able to throw more light on this. India is an observer of the SCO.
6. Simultaneously with strengthening its strategic air power projection capability demonstrated during the current SCO counter-terrorism exercise, China has expanded its civil aviation infrastructure in the so-called Tibet Autonomous Region. It already has five modern airports in Lhasa, Qamdo, Nyingchi, Ngari and Xigaze. A new one is under construction in Nagqu. Lhasa is being developed as western China's air hub.
7.The "China Daily" reported as follows on August 26: " The Tibet Airlines is planning to launch routes to Europe within five years and expand its fleet to 50 by 2020. Liu Yanping, general manager of the State-owned airline, told China Daily that the carrier plans to build Lhasa Gonggar Airport, where it is based, "into an aviation center that not only links various parts of the autonomous region but also Tibet and other areas". He said that the carrier plans to make Lhasa, capital of the Tibet autonomous region, western China's "air hub".
The carrier is a 280-million-yuan ($41 million) joint venture between Tibet Autonomous Region Investment Co Ltd, holding a 51 percent stake, and Tibet Sanli Investment and Tibet Ruiyi Investment, owning 39 and 10 percent stakes. It will make its maiden flight next August, when three Airbus A319s ordered this month arrive. "We plan to have 20 aircraft by 2015," Liu said. As the first Tibet-based carrier, the airline plans to have routes serving the autonomous region and key cities across the nation by 2012. Flights to South Asia and Southeast Asia are expected by 2013. "We hope to have direct routes to European nations in 2015 or 2016," said Liu, who has worked in the civil aviation industry for 25 years and used to be employed by Air China's southwestern branch. "We will help relieve long-existing transport capacity pressures in Tibet, said Liu. He added that the problems presented by slack off-season demand "will be resolved with the development of Tibet's tourism industry". So far, six airlines operate 16 routes in Tibet, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China. Air China has a more than 50 percent market share, followed by Sichuan Airlines with 30 percent. The balance is shared between China Southern, China Eastern, Shenzhen Airlines and Hainan Airlines."
8. The development of the civil aviation infrastructure in the so-called Tibet Autonomous Region has been projected as meant to promote domestic and foreign tourism in the area. The newly-built infrastructure would also place at the disposal of the Chinese Air Force a capability for tactical and logistic air operations against Indian positions in the event of a military conflict. ( 24-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Chinese Air Force has tested its strategic air power capability for air strikes and bombing against long-distance targets in the counter-terrorism exercise under the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) being held at Matybulak in Kazakhstan between September 9 and 25,2010. About 5,000 troops from China, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan are taking part in the exercise. Uzbekistan is not participating.
2. The contingent of about 1000 Chinese troops participating in the exercise is commanded by Gen.Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Since its birth, the SCO had held seven joint counter-terrorism exercises code-named “Peace Mission”. In the previous exercises, the focus was on the use of ground troops, tanks, missiles and helicopters in counter-terrorism operations. In Peace Mission 2009 held last year, the theme was counter-terrorism operations to rescue hostages taken by an armed terrorist group in an urban setting which threatened to blow up a chemical plant. The terrorists were projected last year as armed with man-portable surface-to-air missiles and having an unspecified capability for an attack mounted from air. For the first time since these exercises started. PLA and Russian forces were required last year to integrate air and air defense operations, including the use of their own surface-to-air missiles.
3.The theme of the Peace Mission 2010 exercise currently being held is not known, but it is noticed that the Chinese have tested during the exercise their capability for mounting long-distance air operations involving the use of bombers and fighter planes. A Xinhua report of September 21 on this part of the exercise stated as follows: “Six warplanes took off from within China and launched long-distance "sudden attacks" in neighboring Kazakhstan in the on-going anti-terror drill of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, said a Chinese General. The simulated cross-border strikes were the first by the Chinese Air Force, according to Major General Meng Guoping, deputy commander of the Chinese military participating in the drill. The six warplanes --- four H-6H bombers and two J-10 fighter jets --- were split into two missions. They were supported by an air early warning aircraft and were refueled by a flying tanker before they crossed the border into Kazakhstan, said the General. Although the drill venue is within the range of both warplanes, they were refueled in the air to ensure a complete success of their missions, said General Meng. Meng said by carrying out such a move in the war games, the Chinese Air Force is trying to build an integrated air battle group encompassing early warning, command, long-distance bombing, escort and air refueling. “
4. Gen. Ma Xiaotian has reportedly described the exercise as purely a strategic action against terrorism not directed against any country. The Chinese media has quoted him as saying : “The ongoing exericse never targets or constitutes a threat to any country.”
5. The capability for long-distance air operations of the kind tested by the Chinese would have little use against urban terrorist groups such as the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IMET) operating in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang. They would be more relevant for possible use against India in the event of a military conflict. The indications are that the Chinese have tested their capability for strategic air strikes against Indian positions across the Tibetan border by making use of the current SCO counter-terrorism exercises in Kazakhstan. The Indian observer to the exercise, if there is one, should be able to throw more light on this. India is an observer of the SCO.
6. Simultaneously with strengthening its strategic air power projection capability demonstrated during the current SCO counter-terrorism exercise, China has expanded its civil aviation infrastructure in the so-called Tibet Autonomous Region. It already has five modern airports in Lhasa, Qamdo, Nyingchi, Ngari and Xigaze. A new one is under construction in Nagqu. Lhasa is being developed as western China's air hub.
7.The "China Daily" reported as follows on August 26: " The Tibet Airlines is planning to launch routes to Europe within five years and expand its fleet to 50 by 2020. Liu Yanping, general manager of the State-owned airline, told China Daily that the carrier plans to build Lhasa Gonggar Airport, where it is based, "into an aviation center that not only links various parts of the autonomous region but also Tibet and other areas". He said that the carrier plans to make Lhasa, capital of the Tibet autonomous region, western China's "air hub".
The carrier is a 280-million-yuan ($41 million) joint venture between Tibet Autonomous Region Investment Co Ltd, holding a 51 percent stake, and Tibet Sanli Investment and Tibet Ruiyi Investment, owning 39 and 10 percent stakes. It will make its maiden flight next August, when three Airbus A319s ordered this month arrive. "We plan to have 20 aircraft by 2015," Liu said. As the first Tibet-based carrier, the airline plans to have routes serving the autonomous region and key cities across the nation by 2012. Flights to South Asia and Southeast Asia are expected by 2013. "We hope to have direct routes to European nations in 2015 or 2016," said Liu, who has worked in the civil aviation industry for 25 years and used to be employed by Air China's southwestern branch. "We will help relieve long-existing transport capacity pressures in Tibet, said Liu. He added that the problems presented by slack off-season demand "will be resolved with the development of Tibet's tourism industry". So far, six airlines operate 16 routes in Tibet, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China. Air China has a more than 50 percent market share, followed by Sichuan Airlines with 30 percent. The balance is shared between China Southern, China Eastern, Shenzhen Airlines and Hainan Airlines."
8. The development of the civil aviation infrastructure in the so-called Tibet Autonomous Region has been projected as meant to promote domestic and foreign tourism in the area. The newly-built infrastructure would also place at the disposal of the Chinese Air Force a capability for tactical and logistic air operations against Indian positions in the event of a military conflict. ( 24-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, September 23, 2010
CHINA: CHECKMATING INDIA IN AFGHANISTAN
B.RAMAN
China has shown interest in the construction of two railway lines----one in Pakistan via the Gilgit-Baltistan region and the other in Afghanistan. While the railway line through Gilgit-Baltistan, ultimately extending up to Gwadar on the Mekran coast, will meet the external trade requirements of Chinese-controlled Xinjiang and other regions of Western China, the proposed line in Afghanistan will meet the requirements of a copper mine which China is developing in the Aynak area in Afghanistan. A pre-feasibility study by a Chinese company has already been done in respect of the railway line through Gilgit-Baltistan and an agreement was reached during the visit of President Asif Ali Zardari to China in July to undertake a joint feasibility study by the railways of the two countries. In Afghanistan a joint feasibility study is to be undertaken by the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC), which is developing the copper mine, and the Ministry of Mines of the Government of Afghanistan.
2. On September 22,2010, representatives of the Afghan Ministry of Mines and the MCC signed at Kabul an agreement to undertake the feasibility study. The MCC has, however, cautioned that a final decision on the construction of the railway line would depend on the security situation in Afghanistan. If the security situation deteriorated, the MCC may not go ahead with the proposal. While the Chinese do not anticipate any security problem in the Gilgit-Baltistan area, they do anticipate problems in Afghanistan.
3.Till now, the Taliban has not come in the way of the development of the copper mine. But, in January last, the Taliban kidnapped two Chinese road construction workers. One does not know what happened to them. Probably, the Chinese got them back after secretly paying a ransom.
4. The Chinese Communist Party-controlled “ Global Times” wrote on January 19 last as follows: “The situation in war-torn Afghanistan is deteriorating as Taliban gunmen and suicide bombers attacked buildings across the heart of Kabul , killing at least five people and claiming that they had kidnapped two Chinese engineers working in the country. The kidnappings indicate that China must prepare to cope with crimes targeting overseas Chinese citizens as the country's presence expands worldwide, especially in some trouble spots, experts say. The engineers, who had been helping to build a road, were seized in the northern province of Faryab with four Afghans. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the abductions. A spokesman of the militia said that a Taliban Islamic court would decide their fate. ….The Taliban's demands for the latest kidnapping are not clear. Reuters reported that the Taliban often kidnap foreigners as part of their campaign against coalition forces, but abductions have also become a lucrative business for criminal gangs and rival tribes.A Chinese observer with years of experience working in Afghanistan told the Global Times that Chinese nationals had not been specifically targeted by the Taliban and the kidnapping may be in response to growing Chinese economic interests in the neighboring country. "Chinese enterprises have hired many armed security guards and tightened security measures to ensure safety for Chinese employees there," said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. "However, potential threats cannot be eliminated amid such a chaotic situation in the country." As China builds up its interests in Afghanistan, it faces a dilemma, the observer suggested. "Western nations raised their voice to call on China to offer military assistance. Afghanistan is a thorny issue for the US. It might be one for China in the future," he warned. Afghan Minister for Mines Muhammad Ibrahim Adel told the Daily Telegraph in November that China has a growing role in the country. He said Chinese projects are likely to triple the Afghan government's revenues within five years. China Metallurgical Group and China's top integrated copper producer, Jiangxi Copper Corporation, in July started work in Logar, a province southeast of Kabul, to explore and develop the vast Aynak copper mines. The $4 billion investment was the biggest in Afghanistan's history and provided thousands of Afghans with jobs.”
5.A question worrying the Chinese is whether the Taliban, which has close relations with the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IMET), will honour the agreements signed by the Hamid Karzai Government with China if it comes to power after the withdrawal of the US-led NATO troops. The Chinese are hoping that the Pakistan Government would persuade the Taliban to honour the agreements.
6. It has been stated that the railway line proposal is to connect China with Uzbekistan through Kabul and Aynak, which is to the south of Kabul. It is not clear wherefrom the proposed line will enter Afghanistan from China. The construction of the line, which is unlikely to start for another three years, might require the stationing of troops of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in Afghanistan to protect the Chinese construction personnel. It is not clear how this could affect the functioning of Indian-aided projects in Afghanistan.
7. Speaking on the occasion of the signing of the agreement on the feasibility study, Mr.Zou Jianhui, President of the MCC, is reported to have stated as follows: . “We are still at an early stage. This feasibility study will take two, or two-and-a-half years. If over this period the Afghan security situation gets more stable, and the feasibility study results are good, then we can move ahead with the investment immediately. If the security situation gets worse, then at that time the investors will have to assess how to go forward. The MCC has to ensure the security of investors’ assets, but felt the project would help Afghanistan’s stability and economic development, and is keen to push ahead.”
8.According to the Reuter’s news agency, a commitment to building the railway was included in a contract that the MCC won in 2008 to develop the Aynak copper deposit. China’s top integrated copper producer Jiangxi Copper has a 25 per cent share holding in the project and the MCC the remaining 75 per cent. The two firms started construction of the project in July last year and expect it to produce 320,000 tonnes of copper concentrate annually, with production to begin in 2013 or 2014.
9. In his address to the London Conference on Afghanistan held in the last week of January,2010, Mr.Yang Jiechi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, said that since 2002, China has provided more than 900 million RMB yuan (132 million U.S. dollars) in grants to the Afghan Government and canceled all its mature debts. China announced in 2009 that an additional 75 million U.S.dollars in concessional loans which it had previously committed would also be converted into grants, to be provided over a five-year period. The first instalment of 15 million dollars was given in 2009.The remaining 60 million U.S. dollars will be made available in the coming four years. By the end of 2009, China had trained over 500 Afghan government officials in areas such as diplomacy, economy and trade, medical and health care, finance, tourism, agriculture and counternarcotics. On August 16,2009, Mr.Karzai inaugurated at Kabul a 350-bed hospital called the Republic Hospital costing US Dollars 25 million constructed by the Chinese.
10.Since 2002, President Hamid Karzai has visited China four times. He paid his fourth visit in March last, accompanied by 20 businessmen. Premier Wen Jiabao reportedly told Mr. Karzai in their meeting that China would continuously provide aid to Afghanistan and pledged to enhance security and economic cooperation. In a joint statement issued at the end of the visit, China reiterated its support for peaceful reconstruction in Afghanistan. The two countries also agreed to expand economic cooperation and trade, increase mutual investment and technology transfer, and deepen cooperation in areas of transportation, agriculture and irrigation, energy, mining and infrastructure. During the visit, Mr.Karzai and President Hu Jintao witnessed the signing of three documents on economic and technological cooperation, favorable tariffs for Afghan exports to China and bilateral training programs. The two way trade between the two countries reached 155 million US dollars in 2008.
11 The total value of the Chinese investment in the copper mine alone will be almost three times the total value of the Indian investments in all projects in Afghanistan. Pakistan, which has been repeatedly expressing concern over the Indian role in helping the Karzai Government, welcomes the Chinese role and would like it to increase further. It even wants the Chinese to join in training the Afghan National Army. The US, which has strongly opposed any Indian role in training the ANA, has no such objection to a Chinese role. But, Beijing itself, despite prodding from the US, is reluctant. It wants to see how the ground situation develops. It does not want to incur the wrath of the Taliban by any major role in training the ANA despite Pakistani assurances that there would be no retaliation from the Taliban.
12. Addressing a meeting at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington DC on September 20, Mr.James Steinberg, the US Deputy Secretary of State, reportedly said that China could play a role in bringing stability to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
13. Indian role in Afghanistan----yes, but. Chinese role in Afghanistan---yes, absolutely. That is the policy of the Obama Administration. The Chinese policy in Afghanistan has two objectives----to enhance its strategic presence and influence and to checkmate the Indian strategic presence and influence. The US support for the Chinese policy will be to the detriment of India. ( 27-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
China has shown interest in the construction of two railway lines----one in Pakistan via the Gilgit-Baltistan region and the other in Afghanistan. While the railway line through Gilgit-Baltistan, ultimately extending up to Gwadar on the Mekran coast, will meet the external trade requirements of Chinese-controlled Xinjiang and other regions of Western China, the proposed line in Afghanistan will meet the requirements of a copper mine which China is developing in the Aynak area in Afghanistan. A pre-feasibility study by a Chinese company has already been done in respect of the railway line through Gilgit-Baltistan and an agreement was reached during the visit of President Asif Ali Zardari to China in July to undertake a joint feasibility study by the railways of the two countries. In Afghanistan a joint feasibility study is to be undertaken by the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC), which is developing the copper mine, and the Ministry of Mines of the Government of Afghanistan.
2. On September 22,2010, representatives of the Afghan Ministry of Mines and the MCC signed at Kabul an agreement to undertake the feasibility study. The MCC has, however, cautioned that a final decision on the construction of the railway line would depend on the security situation in Afghanistan. If the security situation deteriorated, the MCC may not go ahead with the proposal. While the Chinese do not anticipate any security problem in the Gilgit-Baltistan area, they do anticipate problems in Afghanistan.
3.Till now, the Taliban has not come in the way of the development of the copper mine. But, in January last, the Taliban kidnapped two Chinese road construction workers. One does not know what happened to them. Probably, the Chinese got them back after secretly paying a ransom.
4. The Chinese Communist Party-controlled “ Global Times” wrote on January 19 last as follows: “The situation in war-torn Afghanistan is deteriorating as Taliban gunmen and suicide bombers attacked buildings across the heart of Kabul , killing at least five people and claiming that they had kidnapped two Chinese engineers working in the country. The kidnappings indicate that China must prepare to cope with crimes targeting overseas Chinese citizens as the country's presence expands worldwide, especially in some trouble spots, experts say. The engineers, who had been helping to build a road, were seized in the northern province of Faryab with four Afghans. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the abductions. A spokesman of the militia said that a Taliban Islamic court would decide their fate. ….The Taliban's demands for the latest kidnapping are not clear. Reuters reported that the Taliban often kidnap foreigners as part of their campaign against coalition forces, but abductions have also become a lucrative business for criminal gangs and rival tribes.A Chinese observer with years of experience working in Afghanistan told the Global Times that Chinese nationals had not been specifically targeted by the Taliban and the kidnapping may be in response to growing Chinese economic interests in the neighboring country. "Chinese enterprises have hired many armed security guards and tightened security measures to ensure safety for Chinese employees there," said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. "However, potential threats cannot be eliminated amid such a chaotic situation in the country." As China builds up its interests in Afghanistan, it faces a dilemma, the observer suggested. "Western nations raised their voice to call on China to offer military assistance. Afghanistan is a thorny issue for the US. It might be one for China in the future," he warned. Afghan Minister for Mines Muhammad Ibrahim Adel told the Daily Telegraph in November that China has a growing role in the country. He said Chinese projects are likely to triple the Afghan government's revenues within five years. China Metallurgical Group and China's top integrated copper producer, Jiangxi Copper Corporation, in July started work in Logar, a province southeast of Kabul, to explore and develop the vast Aynak copper mines. The $4 billion investment was the biggest in Afghanistan's history and provided thousands of Afghans with jobs.”
5.A question worrying the Chinese is whether the Taliban, which has close relations with the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IMET), will honour the agreements signed by the Hamid Karzai Government with China if it comes to power after the withdrawal of the US-led NATO troops. The Chinese are hoping that the Pakistan Government would persuade the Taliban to honour the agreements.
6. It has been stated that the railway line proposal is to connect China with Uzbekistan through Kabul and Aynak, which is to the south of Kabul. It is not clear wherefrom the proposed line will enter Afghanistan from China. The construction of the line, which is unlikely to start for another three years, might require the stationing of troops of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in Afghanistan to protect the Chinese construction personnel. It is not clear how this could affect the functioning of Indian-aided projects in Afghanistan.
7. Speaking on the occasion of the signing of the agreement on the feasibility study, Mr.Zou Jianhui, President of the MCC, is reported to have stated as follows: . “We are still at an early stage. This feasibility study will take two, or two-and-a-half years. If over this period the Afghan security situation gets more stable, and the feasibility study results are good, then we can move ahead with the investment immediately. If the security situation gets worse, then at that time the investors will have to assess how to go forward. The MCC has to ensure the security of investors’ assets, but felt the project would help Afghanistan’s stability and economic development, and is keen to push ahead.”
8.According to the Reuter’s news agency, a commitment to building the railway was included in a contract that the MCC won in 2008 to develop the Aynak copper deposit. China’s top integrated copper producer Jiangxi Copper has a 25 per cent share holding in the project and the MCC the remaining 75 per cent. The two firms started construction of the project in July last year and expect it to produce 320,000 tonnes of copper concentrate annually, with production to begin in 2013 or 2014.
9. In his address to the London Conference on Afghanistan held in the last week of January,2010, Mr.Yang Jiechi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, said that since 2002, China has provided more than 900 million RMB yuan (132 million U.S. dollars) in grants to the Afghan Government and canceled all its mature debts. China announced in 2009 that an additional 75 million U.S.dollars in concessional loans which it had previously committed would also be converted into grants, to be provided over a five-year period. The first instalment of 15 million dollars was given in 2009.The remaining 60 million U.S. dollars will be made available in the coming four years. By the end of 2009, China had trained over 500 Afghan government officials in areas such as diplomacy, economy and trade, medical and health care, finance, tourism, agriculture and counternarcotics. On August 16,2009, Mr.Karzai inaugurated at Kabul a 350-bed hospital called the Republic Hospital costing US Dollars 25 million constructed by the Chinese.
10.Since 2002, President Hamid Karzai has visited China four times. He paid his fourth visit in March last, accompanied by 20 businessmen. Premier Wen Jiabao reportedly told Mr. Karzai in their meeting that China would continuously provide aid to Afghanistan and pledged to enhance security and economic cooperation. In a joint statement issued at the end of the visit, China reiterated its support for peaceful reconstruction in Afghanistan. The two countries also agreed to expand economic cooperation and trade, increase mutual investment and technology transfer, and deepen cooperation in areas of transportation, agriculture and irrigation, energy, mining and infrastructure. During the visit, Mr.Karzai and President Hu Jintao witnessed the signing of three documents on economic and technological cooperation, favorable tariffs for Afghan exports to China and bilateral training programs. The two way trade between the two countries reached 155 million US dollars in 2008.
11 The total value of the Chinese investment in the copper mine alone will be almost three times the total value of the Indian investments in all projects in Afghanistan. Pakistan, which has been repeatedly expressing concern over the Indian role in helping the Karzai Government, welcomes the Chinese role and would like it to increase further. It even wants the Chinese to join in training the Afghan National Army. The US, which has strongly opposed any Indian role in training the ANA, has no such objection to a Chinese role. But, Beijing itself, despite prodding from the US, is reluctant. It wants to see how the ground situation develops. It does not want to incur the wrath of the Taliban by any major role in training the ANA despite Pakistani assurances that there would be no retaliation from the Taliban.
12. Addressing a meeting at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington DC on September 20, Mr.James Steinberg, the US Deputy Secretary of State, reportedly said that China could play a role in bringing stability to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
13. Indian role in Afghanistan----yes, but. Chinese role in Afghanistan---yes, absolutely. That is the policy of the Obama Administration. The Chinese policy in Afghanistan has two objectives----to enhance its strategic presence and influence and to checkmate the Indian strategic presence and influence. The US support for the Chinese policy will be to the detriment of India. ( 27-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
COMMONWEALTH GAMES: SALVAGING NATIONAL HONOUR
B.RAMAN
Our hopes and wishes for a spectacular CWG have been dashed to the ground due to alleged mismanagement by the organising committee headed by Mr.Suresh Kalmadi. A relentless monsoon, the like of which New Delhi has not seen before, has added to our woes.
2.One is helpless before the monsoon, but one was not before the alleged mismanagement of the Organising Committee. If one had acted in time against the Organising Committee-----if necessary, by having it replaced---- when the initial signs of the accumulating mess appeared three months ago, one might have saved our national honour.
3. The Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, whose responsibility it was to assert his captaincy of a sinking ship and stop it from sinking, dithered as he generally does when faced with a crisis----hoping that somehow things will turn out to be all right.
4.He did take some corrective steps like asking a group of senior officials enjoying his confidence to do a day-to-day monitoring of the preparations for the Games and make sure that the mismanagement was rectified. The group has not been able to assert itself effectively against an over-confident Organising Committee.
5. The result----12 days before the Games, renowned athletes whom we were hoping to see in action in New Delhi have started deserting the Games.The sports federations of some of the member-countries are under pressure to desert the Games too, but their Governments, which have considerable goodwill for India and its Prime Minister, have been urging them to stay on board.
6. A disastrous failure of the Games would not be just a failure of an incompetent India. We as a nation are not incompetent.It would be the failure of an emerging India and the damaging of its image as a democratic nation worthy of emulation due to the alleged incompetence of a small group of people who had the control of the Organising Committee. The world would not want India to be seen as a bungler in the face of an authoritarian China which made a spectacular success of the Olympics of August 2008.
7. Thanks to the dithering by the Prime Minister, we seem to be left with no other option but to sink or swim with Mr.Kalmadi and his Organising Committee. Swim we must and swim we can, if the Prime Minister gives up his bureaucratic ways of dealing with a crisis, steps on to the deck and takes control of the damaged ship. Only he can save the ship of our national honour at this late hour. No one else can. He has to take control now without further delay.
8. India is not bereft of managerial wizards in the Government and the private sector. The Prime Minister should set up a committee of consequence managers chaired by him to mount an exercise for the salvage of the national honour. Specific responsibilities should be allotted to the members of the committee relating to the venues of the games, the maintenance of the Games Village, the welfare of the participants, the physical security and public relations. The Organising Committee should be told to carry out its instructions. Any attempt by the Organising Committee to undermine or sabotage its functioning should be ruthlessly put down. The Committee should be given all the powers and resources it needs. The young and enthusiastic officers of the police and the Armed Forces, who passed out last year, should be placed at the disposal of the Committee to have its instructions carried out. The Prime Minister should hold meetings of the Committee every evening to review its work and give appropriate follow-up directions. The Prime Minister should make himself available for instant meetings with the members of the Committee.
9. It is too late for us to hope for a spectacular CWG, which could compare with the spectacular Beijing Olympics. We could even now make it a decent CWG and salvage our national honour if the Prime Minister acts and acts decisively and makes it clear that hereafter he will be in charge till the Games are over.
10. The salvaging of our national honour depends on one man, the Prime Minister. Will he step onto the deck?
11. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of August 6 titled "Olympics—2008, C’wealth Games 2010 & Asian Games—2010 " at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3969.html (23-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Our hopes and wishes for a spectacular CWG have been dashed to the ground due to alleged mismanagement by the organising committee headed by Mr.Suresh Kalmadi. A relentless monsoon, the like of which New Delhi has not seen before, has added to our woes.
2.One is helpless before the monsoon, but one was not before the alleged mismanagement of the Organising Committee. If one had acted in time against the Organising Committee-----if necessary, by having it replaced---- when the initial signs of the accumulating mess appeared three months ago, one might have saved our national honour.
3. The Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, whose responsibility it was to assert his captaincy of a sinking ship and stop it from sinking, dithered as he generally does when faced with a crisis----hoping that somehow things will turn out to be all right.
4.He did take some corrective steps like asking a group of senior officials enjoying his confidence to do a day-to-day monitoring of the preparations for the Games and make sure that the mismanagement was rectified. The group has not been able to assert itself effectively against an over-confident Organising Committee.
5. The result----12 days before the Games, renowned athletes whom we were hoping to see in action in New Delhi have started deserting the Games.The sports federations of some of the member-countries are under pressure to desert the Games too, but their Governments, which have considerable goodwill for India and its Prime Minister, have been urging them to stay on board.
6. A disastrous failure of the Games would not be just a failure of an incompetent India. We as a nation are not incompetent.It would be the failure of an emerging India and the damaging of its image as a democratic nation worthy of emulation due to the alleged incompetence of a small group of people who had the control of the Organising Committee. The world would not want India to be seen as a bungler in the face of an authoritarian China which made a spectacular success of the Olympics of August 2008.
7. Thanks to the dithering by the Prime Minister, we seem to be left with no other option but to sink or swim with Mr.Kalmadi and his Organising Committee. Swim we must and swim we can, if the Prime Minister gives up his bureaucratic ways of dealing with a crisis, steps on to the deck and takes control of the damaged ship. Only he can save the ship of our national honour at this late hour. No one else can. He has to take control now without further delay.
8. India is not bereft of managerial wizards in the Government and the private sector. The Prime Minister should set up a committee of consequence managers chaired by him to mount an exercise for the salvage of the national honour. Specific responsibilities should be allotted to the members of the committee relating to the venues of the games, the maintenance of the Games Village, the welfare of the participants, the physical security and public relations. The Organising Committee should be told to carry out its instructions. Any attempt by the Organising Committee to undermine or sabotage its functioning should be ruthlessly put down. The Committee should be given all the powers and resources it needs. The young and enthusiastic officers of the police and the Armed Forces, who passed out last year, should be placed at the disposal of the Committee to have its instructions carried out. The Prime Minister should hold meetings of the Committee every evening to review its work and give appropriate follow-up directions. The Prime Minister should make himself available for instant meetings with the members of the Committee.
9. It is too late for us to hope for a spectacular CWG, which could compare with the spectacular Beijing Olympics. We could even now make it a decent CWG and salvage our national honour if the Prime Minister acts and acts decisively and makes it clear that hereafter he will be in charge till the Games are over.
10. The salvaging of our national honour depends on one man, the Prime Minister. Will he step onto the deck?
11. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of August 6 titled "Olympics—2008, C’wealth Games 2010 & Asian Games—2010 " at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3969.html (23-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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