B.RAMAN
It is difficult to satisfactorily analyse and
assess Allama Tahir-ul-Qadri, a Canadian cleric of Pakistani origin, who has
suddenly returned to Pakistan to start a street movement against the civilian Government
and traditional political parties on grounds of widespread corruption and bad
governance.
2. A self-projected Sufi, his rhetoric and methods
tend to be confrontational and to be
comforting to the Army and the judiciary. He does not call for a return to the
Army rule, but wants the Army to have a role in ensuring free and fair
elections by being a part of the interim Government under which the elections
to the National Assembly due later this year will be held.
3. I do not agree with the conventional perception
that his return from Canada to start a street movement was engineered by the
Army in order to pave the way for a return to Army rule. I do not tend to see
the hand of the Army or its Chief of Staff, Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani in the Allama’s
street movement.There is little evidence to show that his movement has been
inspired by the Army.
4. At the height of the global war against
terrorism, the US and other Western countries sought to use the Allama in their
attempts to de-radicalise and de-wahabise Islam. One does not know to what
extent he was able to help them in this exercise. But his advocacy of Sufism
and his disapproval of jihadi terrorism and Wahabi-Deobandi rhetoric impressed
sections of Western policy-makers.
5. During his visit to India in the beginning of
last year with no difficulty in getting an Indian visa, one noticed a
difference from the normal run of Wahabi-Deobandi clerics like Maulana Fazlur
Rehman who visit India from Pakistan from time to time. He was allowed to
widely travel in India, visiting Delhi, Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Hyderabad and
Bengaluru. He complied with restrictions imposed on his meetings such as not
referring to Jammu & Kashmir.
6. One noticed that he spoke of the state of the
Islamic world of today and not of the medieval Islamic world. One hardly found
references to bin Ladenesque rhetoric on the need for an international jihad
against the Crusaders and the Jewish people or the need for the revival of the
Islamic Caliphate. The Allama does not fight shy of flaunting his Sufism or his admiration for the positive aspects of
the Western world. Look at the way he unhesitatingly addresses audiences in
Pakistan in English.
7. There are two questions to which satisfactory
answers are not available. What made him suddenly return to Pakistan to start a
street movement? Why has he been praising the Army and condemning the civilian
rule?
8. His pro-Army rhetoric is definitely disquieting,
but it would be unwarranted to conclude that the Army would be happy over the
emergence of the Allama phenomenon. Both the Army and the jihadi extremists of
Pakistan acting as surrogates of its Inter-Services Intelligence ought to be
concerned over the Allama phenomenon because of his opposition to jihadi
terrorism and his past proximity to Western liberal circles. Even Saudi Arabia,
on which he does not seem to be dependent for funding, would be puzzled by the
Allama.
9. His popularity in the streets of Pakistan should
not be over-stated, but one cannot deny he has been attracting an increasing
number of followers from his native Punjab. Till now, he seems to be a Punjabi
phenomenon and not a Pashtun or Sindhi one. His immediate
threat is likely to be to the Imran Khan phenomenon and not to the PPP or the
Pakistan Muslim League of Mr.Nawaz Sharif. While the elite has remained
steadfast with Imran, sections of the
poor and middle classes have been gravitating towards the Allama.
10. Will the Allama phenomenon be ephemeral helped
by the widespread disenchantment with the Zardari-led Government and fizzle out after some weeks or will it acquire
momentum and staying power? It is difficult to
say at present, but as long as the movement continues, we in India have
to closely monitor its impact on political stability in Pakistan and the state
of extremism there.
11. Pakistani analyses and debates are replete with
negative references to the Allama. He has been called by some a serial liar,
ideologically dishonest, an Army stooge etc. We should not let these negative
references influence our analysis and assessment. We should keep our judgement
reserved. If he succeeds in injecting a dose of moderation in Wahabi-Deobandi
Islam it will be good for the sub-continent. Our faith in the ability of the
Pakistani civil society and political parties to de-wahabise Islam has been belied
so far. If the Allama can do it, why not? ( (17-1-13)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For
China Studies.
Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
2 comments:
I am always surprised by this fascination of our strategic community of conflating Deobandi and Wahabbis together so easily.
Both are quite distinct schools of thought and while Deobandi has been Indic in origin, the Wahabbi/Salafi has been predominantly Arab.
But from a security point of view, even that is not a big deal. Who cares what religion a person follows as long as their beliefs do not impact Indian national security concerns such as suicide bombings/ terrorism e.t.c.
And this where there is a big blind spot for Indian thinkers. The main concern fo us should be to target political Islamist movements that ask for establishment of sharia e.t.c Example is SIMI which should have been tackled back in the 1980s when it raised this slogan.
In Pakistan, Deobandi movement was used in a political religious context by Ziaul Haq. This resulted in its militarisation. The Saudis used Wahhabbism as apolitical tool in Afghanistan and this made WAhabbi followers extremists. Similarly if Barelvi movement is used by Pakistan for political purposes, this will result in extremist and militant Barelvi groups as well.
And this applies across religions as well. For example, a political religious sikh movement gave us the Khalistan movement and assasiantion of CM of Punjab, COAS and PM of India. Similarly, Swami Aseemanand and Pragya Singh Thakur and other members of Abhinav Bharat used a political Hindu ideology to justify their bombings against fellow Indian citizens.
Sir,
Either way, the instability of Pakistan is in India's favour. The turning point being if his movement becomes a political one. Will it eat into Imran Khan's vote bank or will it be of the other two parties struggling for power. Will Imran Khan and Allama take a chance and go it together in the upcoming elections. And the most important is going to be the nature in which he straddles the Baloch question which Pakistani politicians tend to avoid.
These are the questions which will require answers for India. It will not at all matter what he thinks of Kashmir, because Baloch is the new Kashmir for Pakistan and this is in specific importance post US Afghan pull out.
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