Thursday, December 20, 2012




The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reasons to be concerned over the results of the elections to the State Assemblies of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh announced on December 20,2012.

2.The elections were preceded by a sustained campaign based on allegations of corruption  against the Government of Dr.Manmohan Singh, and some Congress leaders of Himachal Pradesh They were also preceded by a steady increase in inflation and by the economy reaching a road-block. The campaign of Anna Hazare and the anti-corruption activists headed by Shri Arvind Kejriwal since August last year was mainly directed against Congress misgovernance.

3.Many of us formed the perception that the public disenchantment against the Congress was so strong that its electoral defeat in the various elections to the State Assemblies and to the Lok Sabha in 2014 would be certain. We were surprised when public opinion polls held in some states a few months ago indicated that the disenchantment with the Congress was not as widespread as one thought it would be and that any disenchantment that did exist had not translated itself into enchantment with the BJP.I had pointed out  in earlier articles and tweets that the BJP had not been a beneficiary of any disenchantment with the Congress.

4. This was because of public skepticism over the capability of the BJP to set right matters and over the internal mess in its organization in States such as Karnataka. It was apparent that campaigns solely based on allegations of corruption and criticism of the dynasty rule were not making headway with the rural and small town voters. Signs of a creeping disillusionment with the BJP were there for all to see if only they wanted to see them.

5.The results of the elections to the Gujarat and HP State Assemblies clearly show that these misgivings were not ill-based. The elections to the Gujarat Assembly were preceded by months of a high-voltage campaign mounted by a group of Gujarati whiz-kids from the diaspora in the US to project NaMo as the coming saviour of India, who had performed economic miracles in Gujarat, which he was destined to repeat in New Delhi after gravitating to New Delhi and taking over as the Prime Minister of India following the 2014 elections.

6. NaMo willingly and uncritically allowed these whiz-kids from abroad and their associates in Gujarat to project him in a new designer-made personality as the development man, as India’s man of economic miracles, as the ruler who turned Gujarat into India’s Guangdong. Interestingly, some of these Hindutva whiz-kids from the US were earlier associated with some Telugu whiz-kids from Andhra Pradesh in the US, who had mounted a campaign some years ago to project Shri Chandra Babu Naidu, former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, as the man of the technology-based development miracle sweeping across AP and as the coming saviour of India when the NDA under Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee was in power.

7.These whiz-kids and NaMo had so convinced themselves that Gujarat was shining under him that they created for themselves an illusory world of unstoppable NaMo who was bound to sweep the polls in Gujarat before moving on to New Delhi. Their exaggerated expectations, based on hype and delusions, on the number of seats that NaMo was likely to get far exceeding what he got in 2007 drove them blind to the ground reality.

8. The Congress poll strategists, advised by sons of the soil analysts and not by imported whiz-kids, concluded that the strong state of the BJP in Gujarat and its undoubted economic record and the poor state of the Congress  would not enable them to prevent another NaMo victory. Their strategy was, therefore, designed to devalue the significance of NaMo’s hat-trick.

9. Whatever NaMo’s spin-kids may say, his was not a phenomenal victory. That NaMo himself realizes this is obvious from his remark in the victory speech “ a victory is a victory, whether one gets 93 or more”. The tone of his victory speech was that of an embarrassed leader whose Himalayan expectations have been belied.

10.Two significant indicators of the Gujarat poll results are the fact that the BJP got two seats less than in 2007 and registered a fall of one per cent in its popular support (48 %).As against this, the popular support of the Congress went up by one per cent to 40. The poll results clearly show a saturation effect and the onset of a NaMo fatigue. NaMo’s victory speech in Hindi was designed to conceal the signs of this fatigue and to project the significance of his hat-trick against a pan-Indian instead of a purely Gujarati background..NaMo is no longer the man going up and up and up. He is an engine which is beginning to stall.

11.If the Gujarat results are significant purely against the State perspective, the HP results are very significant from the pan-Indian perspective against the background of the sustained anti-Congress and anti-dynasty campaign mounted by the BJP. This campaign has failed to dent the Congress image. The BJP has not been a beneficiary of this campaign and is unlikely to be its beneficiary in other States too during the 2014 polls to the Lok Sabha.

12. If the BJP does not revamp itself and design a new poll strategy based on ground realities and not on imported myth and delusions of diaspora origin, its hopes of returning to power in New Delhi in 2014 are likely to be belied. If its own chances of returning to power are so weak, where is the question of NaMo assuming its leadership and becoming the next PM. It will be premature and futile to analyse NaMo’s chances, when the BJP’s own chances are questionable.

13. The BJP leaders should stop building castles in the air. ( 21-12-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:  .Twitter @SORBONNE75 )


Broadway said...

Raman, dude, do you realize that you lost most of you readers?

Do you remember that time when you were writing posts in support of manmohan singh, congress and barkha dutt?

You remember?

Well, those readers who used to read your blog posts have gone away. I remember those days when you used to write about things that mattered and people used to reference your quotes on some popular anti-terrorism forum communities but those days are gone.

There's a popular saying... integrity once lost cannot be regained

Indian said...

Completely Agreed with Broadway.I was also Raman's Fan up-to few month back. Raman looks good when he write about Security related issues.
Everyonw knows now he is hardcore fav o Ghandhi Dynasty and Anti national brigade like Barkha Dutt.
Now some facts about elections:-
Wining a third consecutive election is not easy task thats Modi score is similar to earlier BJP has lon 10 + seats with less Margin on 1000 votes in Gujarat.

In Himachal, Congress has not performed to its best. The state is know to provide alternate leader every 5 years,BJP has hot 26 seats there and 4 indepdents who hav won are of BJP too.Yes BJP lost thier becuase of Dhumal and his sons.Dhumal did not let any Santa kumar candidate win the election.

Kushal said...

Dear Raman

I used to be your regular reader...but not anymore. Because of your blind faith in Dynasty and their media partners like ndtv, cnnibn etc you have lost your credibility. What a fall !

Lost interest in your strategic analysis as well. Reason is simple, how can a man who cannot impartially and objectively analyse the domestic matters can analyse even more complex international issues. Believe me i honestly felt your strategic analysis can only be as good as your analysis of internal matters.


shyam lal said...

@ Broadway. well said

@B Raman. Gujarat wins!!!…..its Very Loud and Clear …For those anti nationals ,Barbariansos , Religious lunatics , Paid "Burkha" dutt ….all they tried very well to demolish Narendra Modi .

Once again Development WiNs NoT "politricks" , LEaderShip and GovErneSs WiNs NoT corruption ,NaTionaList wins NoT Vote bank politics , Indians wins NoT the Italianos , Love of People and Hard work wins NoT Allegations ,cheating ,lies …..

still wander when will same things happen in rest of the India !!!!!

Ejazz said...

I can see that cyber-Modtiva storm-troopers are not happy with you analysis as expected.

In any case, there is a recent study on the Cyber-Hindutva trend and how the online prescene is nearly almost dominated by US based Indians, NOT local Indians. That is why social media is such a bad gauge of current political trends in India.

Here is the link to the paper

The extensive study talks about how the epicentre of Hindutva online presence is in the US. How Sangh Parivar groups like RSS/VHP had received foreign funding from diaspora groups which started drying up in the mid-2000s due to increasing scrutiny from authorities and exposes from liberal groups like sabrang and avaaz. And interestingly how Islamphobia is the common feature in both extremist Hindutva and extremist Zionisnt groups online.