Thursday, July 14, 2011

MUMBAI: EROSION OF FAITH IN SECURITY

B.RAMAN,Camp Vizag

The Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh's reported decision to visit Mumbai in the wake of the new series of orchestrated and timed explosions on July 13 reflects his embarrassment and concern over the blasts.

2.The embarrassment arises from the continuing deficiencies in our counter-terrorism capability even after the much vaunted improvements introduced after the 26/11 strikes. The deficiencies relate to the preventive and surveillance capabilities of our intelligence agencies and the police. The concern should be over the likely negative political impact of the success of the terrorists in circumventing the security measures.

3. The Government's credibility in relation to counter-terrorism is likely to suffer further erosion----particularly in Mumbai, whose population has been the target of five instances of high casualty terrorist attacks ---in 1993,2003,2006,2008 and 2011. The argument about the difficulties faced by the intelligence and security agencies in preventing terrorist attacks will not carry conviction to the people. While they may accept one or two surprise attacks, they would find it difficult to accept repeated attacks not only in Mumbai but also in other cities.

4. Other cities---New York. Madrid and London---have had isolated mass casualty attacks, but the police was able to ensure that there were no more attacks. It would be natural for the public to ask why this has not been possible for our security agencies.

5 Despite arrests made after past attacks, terrorist organisations still have at their disposal a seemingly unending stream of recruits who are willing to be trained and used to carry out attacks. A worrisome aspect is that our security agencies and the police have been unable to quantify the total number of trained terrorists still available to the organizations and neutralize them. They have also been unable to identify and block the sources of recruitment.

6.The attacks of July13,2011, ----like those of 1993,2003 and 2006 and unlike those of 2008--- were multi-targeted and well orchestrated with a single modus operandi. They required good motivation and some training and not sophisticated expertise. The 2008 attacks were commando-style and multi-targeted with multiple modus-operandi---use of explosives and hand-held weapons and hostage-taking. They required considerable training and sophistication. Hand-held weapons were used in addition to explosives in 1993 too.

7.No claim of responsibility has so far been made. There has been no electronic interception of suspect messages----electronic chatter as professionals call it----which might give a clue as to who might have been responsible. The security agencies are, therefore, groping in the dark in identifying the organisation responsible.

8.Coastal security and immigration controls have been tightened up after the 26/11 terrorist strikes. The possibility of outsiders sneaking in to carry out the attacks is somewhat low. The greater possibility is that the attacks were carried out by some people normally resident in India---- maybe, Indian nationals or foreigners. The investigating agencies should keep an open mind and avoid jumping to conclusions.

9.The reports about a wired body and a separated head being found in one of the spots need to be carefully investigated. If these reports are correct, this would be a disturbing indicator of an act of suicide terrorism with possible foreign influence.

10.If these reports are ultimately ruled out as not correct, the only other possibility is of timed strikes, which might have been carried out either with mechanical (clocks or the alarm mechanism of a mobile telephone) or with chemical timers. The 1993 strikes were carried out by Dawood Ibrahim's men with chemical timers of US-origin obtained by them from the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

11. The reported use of ammonium nitrate speaks of a lethargy in imposing checks on the sale of nitrogenous fertilisers despite this being repeatedly used as the explosive material by different terrorist groups in copy-cat acts in different countries of the world. Western countries have imposed checks on the sale of nitrogenous fertilisers. In Canada, sleeper cells were caught when they sought to buy nitrogenous fertilisers. It is not clear whether we have imposed similar checks.

12. Whether it is the Indian Mujahideen (IM) or any other organisation which is ultimately found to have been responsible,it wanted to disprove the official claims of having broken its back. This may not remain a one-city phenomenon. We must be prepared to prevent the danger of similar attacks in other cities.

13. We should not allow the latest blasts to disrupt the on-going dialogue process with Pakistan unless there is concrete evidence to show that either the ISI or Pakistan-trained elements were involved. (14-7-11)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi)

17 comments:

Paresh said...

Raman Sir,

I sincerely pray to GOD that these Mumbai blasts have been committed by Hindu extremists. ONLY THEN will the UPA Government sincerely and truthfully investigate, trace, catch, prosecute and possibly hang the perpetrators. Atleast the poor citizens of Mumbai will get justice!!

If either Indian Mujahideen or Pakistani ISI is involved... forget justice, forget revenge. Just lower your pants and bend over...awaiting the next brutal attack on Mumbai!

ambi said...

though i am sad, still mumbaikars asked for it and they deserved it. and they re going to get more n more. they r so irresponsible and jerks that even after facing 26-11 they voted for congress. most of them didnt even vote. poetic justice. nalayak raja nalayak praja.

some how i feel congress alows these attacks to happen to create a rift. the mecca masjid blast, malegaon blast, 26.11, pune blast, yesterdays blast all these r congress ruled states. congress gains immensely whenever society is divided. congress gained immensely from 26-11 attack just before election. just like pasha uncle turned blind eye to abbotabad operation, so cons r also allowing these attacks to happen. it is on record that police officer vishwas nagare patil had personally visited both these hotels warning them before hand before 26-11. that means they had intimation for the attack. as now it is revealed that indian govt was fully aware of purulia arms drop operation, n RAW turned blind eye to it.

now every thing is working as per plan, idiot hindus ll start barking pota n tada as usual, idiot muslims ll get scarred as usual, n they ll go to cons as usual. dejavu. in 1 st half they kicked ass of hindus, now to appease hindus they ll kick the ass of muslims, within an hour police comm had found the suspects in IM n LET. perfect divide n rule formula in full action before 16 august.

as far as mumbaikars r concerned they need to be punished. they r so irresponsible.

financeblogger said...

Following are the inferences I draw from the blasts. The assumption is terrorists/organization/s with direct or indirect support from Pakistan are involved. Kindly suggest if otherwise

1) They have the resources to strike at will as they are well entrenched. Execution has been well planned and targets appropriately identified.
2) From the look of it, despite blasts took place at three places, they could have carried the blasts at many places just as in the past.
What may be the reason for only three locations and these specific
three locations.
3) Along with external aggression, simultaneously internal disturbance and instability can be played upon by Pakistan.

Vaibhav said...

I would like to agree with what Paresh has said. If the congress govt finds any links of recent blast to RSS or VHP, such as even a torn poster near blast site, it would be sufficient for them to allow Mr Diggi Singh to go out in public and bite Hindus all over indis. As far as IM or ISI is concerned, it is time for us to save our a$$ and prepare for the same now in other indian cities....After so many attacks on indian cities, one asks to himself, WHEN WILL THIS STOP ??? Why there has been no attacks on US soil after 9/11. Given a choice b/w Indian and US, I am sure each and every mujahideen will choose US time and again....I feel ashamed, as well as afraid, for the next blast may claim someone I know...

Sorry state of a beautiful country groped in minority appeasing vote bank politics..

balaji said...

@ambi Even though i share your frustration with the Congress party i believe it is wrong to even say in jest that anyone deserved it.....
It has to be said that the current Indian government has got no credibility and their every thought and action is only directed to somehow keep the Gandhi family in power. Wont be surprised if Rahul attends another function and say that he empathizes with the Islamic terrorists as he did with the Maoists not to mention he will also visit the terror camp in Pakistan and get a photo-op of having lunch with them to appease the minorities here in India.

ambi said...

yaar balaji, i know these r harsh words. mumbai is my city, though i dont stay there currently, but mumbaikars really asked for it.

govt, admn is like a vehicle, a machine, if u cant put effective control on ur bike or on ur car, that machine is definately going to go out of your hands, leading to fatal crash. thats what happened on 26.11 n yesterday. 26.11 was time when mumbai realised that something was wrong with that machinery. still they prefered to ride same machinery blindly. what else u expect. only way to keep tight control over this machine is to go and vote. mumbai had one of the lowest voter turnout. in logon ko jake sirf vote karna tha, yaar. kaminon ne utna bhi nahin kiya. i was stunned when i learnt that congress got elected from mumbai. i was crying blood. yeh toh hona hi tha yaar. just look at afghans, they know the value of vote n democracy. taliban had threatned them that if they participate in the presidential elections they ll chop off that particular inked finger, still poor afghans dared n voted, because they knew the value of their vote.

this time i wont blame isi or pakistan for the attack, of course thats what there job is. they ve to prove there utility to china, or china ll not bankroll them, i ll defnately blame ourselve, cause we r to blame this time.

now all the attention is diverted from anna hajare's fast. i hope it doesnt go on the backburner.

Esoteric said...

You give your hand away in your last sentence by saying dialogue with Pakistan should continue despite attacks,so you are in the same boat as the PM; its a small boat indeed with very few onboard.

This dialogue policy is looking more like a policy to 'keep' India weak and stay weak.The modus operandi is to continue talking to Pakistan(thus giving them no reason to stop using terror as a policy tool) and continue giving internal security no attention ie dont invest in equipment,training or people.The final dimension of this anti-India policy is to politicise the attack later on by either pinning blame on a homegrown jihadi group or even worse on some so called Hindu group.If &*^% hits the fan,Plan B is to blame opposition parties of trying to fan communal tensions now or ten years ago to keep them honest.

This strategy ensures,that India cannot blame Pakistan or act aggresively and also ensures that defensive capability is at best minimal.

For all this to work,all that is required is some committment by terrorists to reduce frequency of attacks to make it look like a strategy thats not flawed in its intent or objectives but just poorly executed.

Given the above, statements of PM - that terrorists have the element of surprise,Rahuls that all attacks cant(wont?) be stopped and Chidambaram's that attacks have reduced..show a pattern...PM can extract from US some goodies if some attaks occur,HM can make moolah off so-called capacity building,while RG can divide the polity along communal lines and garner votes.

Its almost like an outsider job with insider ok.

Esoteric said...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/07/14/mumbai-terror-attacks-india-is-powerless.html

Sarang said...

Sir, US and NATO are beginning to wind down their presence in Afghanistan. They can no longer afford to keep troops there and are fast losing the war. But as is the DNA of the 'white man', they are not going to leave without sowing the seeds of discord and hatred between Afghanistan and its neighbours so that the perpetual animosity and wars will benifit Western interests.

Evidence of this can be seen in cross border attacks in Pakistan by 'militants' from Afghanistan and retaliatory shelling of Afghan town by Pakistani 'troops'. Also, there have been demonstations in Afghan towns by 'ordinary Afghans' against Pakistani shelling. Can this be an Americn ploy to foster enmity among the two countries? In the same breath, can the Mumbai attacks be the handiwork of US agents? Your earlier article was about the growing confidence between India and pakistan. Could the West be threatened by this new development and be trying to increase the enimosity between India and pakistan?

Why else would Indian Govt. be hell bent on continuing the dialog with pakistan? I hate the UPA Govt. too but I believe they have some brains somewhere.

Let us remember, the US played the same card in Iraq (sowing enmity between Shia and Sunnis) before they quit (or lowered their presence) there. The British did the same when they left India in 1947. They may be repeating their experiment again?

Does the MMS government suspect something?

Other readers are welcome to comment...

Sarang said...

I forgot to mention: American papers were the first to mention that "LeT may have been behind the Mumabi blasts". How do they know? Our agencies are not yet pointing a finger at Pakistan. Why is America butting in?

Strange. Make you wonder.....

ambi said...

sarang yaar, afghans dont need white man ho hate Pakistan. u dont know what pakistan has done to them. if u ever know, tu apna seer pakad ke baith jaayega aur rone lagega. i am a hindu, but my heart goes to them. these poor souls ve suffered enough. u dont know what that poor country has gone through in a decade or so. just like maoist use poor tribals support to capture power, so pakistan (read sunni punjabis)has used religion to dominate all other neighbouring muslim majority countries. afghans know what pakistan stands for. Pakistan has destroyed that country and almost reduced to nothing. but this is where nature will take its revenge on pakistan (read idiot punjabis). as civil war will resume in afghanistan soon, there will be more n more pakhtun, tajik and other ethnic minorities migration to pakistan, n soon in a decade or so pakistan will be a pakhtun majority country. I hope khan abdul gaffar khan will be laughing from sky. his revenge ll be taken. aap dekhna, mark my words, pakistan ki to afghan hi marenge.

as far as wednesdays blast is concerned, as far as i am concerned, at least i am convinced, i dont know who dun it, but it was done by the silent node of cons and authorities.

Esoteric said...

Sarang & Ambi,

Every country,institution and person acts to safeguard its interest.But I view interests are of two kinds National - Long term and mass based and what I call 'Establishment' - Short term and narrow based.

Its in US national interest to reduce war expense in AfPak and divide and 'rule' fits well into it.But some establishment interests in the US such as pvt contractors or even the region specific US centcom might want to extend the war given the budgets that allocated due to the war.

Its in India's national interest to prevent all attacks and secure all its people.But UPA has its own interests.It wants to continue in 'power' for'ever'.Its also in their 'interest' to milk every 'cow' that 'grazes grass'.Further it (deliberately - wrongly so) believes that its in their interest to NOT be hard against terror to assuage a particular community.(The reason this is not correct is that Indian Muslims do not ascribe to Jihadism despite SIMI's and IMs and one proof of this is there lack of support to the J&K separatists).
Its deliberate because it hints to the Muslims that it will look after their interests touting softness on terror as a hint.This in turn breeds groups like the ones mentioned above.The whole Hindu terror facade(even if some cells exist) is a directly related to this belief.

Unless the population figures are wrong or Muslims have more than one vote,the maths does not add up.In other words,it scores two hits.It also pushes Hindu oriented groups more to the right and creates so called central space for Congress.Once they have driven the right more to the right,they then act all jumpy to any statement by a right wing politician and spin it one with a communal tone.

NYT in its editorial has commended India for its patience after 26/11 and now.Its praised MMS by name.Its no secret,while money mightnt excite MMS but being called 'Honest' or a 'Guru' or a 'statesmen' is music to his ears.Peace deal with Pakistan will earn him a Nobel prize.Human being are vain.He more so.

US might even allow India to send more money to Afghanistan(ironic) as aid in return for this patience.The Home minister in the name of capacity building will surely borrow some western(efficiency driven rather than effectiveness driven) concepts and build grids of many sort using some western companies and basically allow them an entry to get Indian citizens data; in return Congress might fight some election with more gusto and blanket spin driven PR and advertising.It will allow Digvijay Singh and his chela Rahul Gandhi to divide polity further especially in UP.

UPA is unlikely to act in India's national interest now or ever.US will use the attack to pressure Pakistan to act whoever they want them to attack,while giving Pakistan an excuse not to(with an 'arguable' Indian threat).India supposedly gets a lever in the talks with Pakistan but will be a private one as the blame will be laid at an Indian terror group and not an external one.

Congress has played these games for decades and got away with it as the basic divide(region,religion,caste etc) and rule policies were not known to public at large.Now we all know.

So its an act of terror on the Indian people by...

Sarang said...

One must remember that a few days ago there was tri-partite meeting between Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan. Then there was PM Gilani telling Karzai to forget US and join with China. India is making peace talks with Iran and pakistan and India, Afghanistan, Iran, pakistan all want to members of SCO...which has taken their candidacy seriously. All these events are sure to exclude US and NATO interests from Asian region. This has rattled them. The only way they can keep up their importance is to break this new-forming unity. How do they do it? By playing one against the other:

1. Forment trouble between Pakistan and Afghanistan through false 'Taliban'
2. Forment trouble between Pakistan and India through false 'terror acts'
3. Pressure India to break relations with Iran
4. Forment trouble between Iran and pakistan through Jundulla
5. Forment trouble between India and China through western press reports and rhetoric

Lets just come out of the whole "MMS-bashing" and "UPA-bashing" mode and try to look at the bigger conspiracy.

I am not saying that Pakistani ISI is our friend or they may not be involved. But just that they may not be involved ALWAYS. And hence Chidambaram's words are important when he said ALL ANGLES WILL BE PROBED. I know people will take this to mean that he will also probe Hindu groups...but lets keep an open mind at all posibilities.

US, and other western nations are capable of these henious crimes too! Islamists do it for religion, while western nations do it for MONEY through arms sales in artificially created conflict zones!

Esoteric said...

Sarang -

Please dont have any illusions about which side MMS is on.He has always been US and will remain so.

The whole SCO thing will not work out given the bilateral problems lot of the members have between themselves.Further,its far from the current reality.

China has used SCO to nudge US closer to its G-2 vision where it rules Pacific and US Atlantic.

If US had a role in 13/7 and 26/11,it only strengthens the analysis I put forth.This so called MMS 'strategy' of peace with Pakistan is nothing but a smokescreen to somehow avoid the pressure from all sides for action against Pakistan from Indians and of starting dialogue from US.

SCO has members with nothing in common and will remain a figment of imagination such as EU.

The problem is the reaction of MMS and UPA,nothing detracts from that.

balaji said...

@Sarang @Esoteric Comeon guys these are really outrageous charges you are making... what does US stand to gain from Afghanistan and Pakistan fighting each other this regional conflict will only help the anti-western terror groups to find a safe haven by aligning with the Pakistani or the Afghani Taliban whatever is more beneficial to them. Alqaeda can only thrive under regional tensions and if it is beneficial to Alqaeda it can only be harmful to the US.Stop making some outlandish theories not because US is not capable of that but simply it doesnt benefit the US in any sane way.
Let look at protecting our interests first and what can India do to prevent such attacks.We cannot sit idle and wait for the terrorists to die of old age but we should have a proactive intelligence network in Pakistan as the marching orders comes fr0m there and actively identify and "neutralize" the sleeper cells here in India. Active intelligence is paramount thats because no matter how many CCTV cameras we have we cannot prevent terror attacks on soft targets like supermarkets,bakery stalls etc.

Esoteric said...

Ok. Balaji - For your sake,lets look at the whole problem again.

Prima facie,bomb blasts just before Clinton and Pak FM visit to India benefit the extremists by hardening India's positions and therefore weakening the thaw.

Some other facts..

Before you could finish saying 'Bomb blast',NYT reporters were saying 'local gangs' could be responsible.This is the same reaction of some western analysts on 26/11/08.But a year later Headley(forget Kasab for now) was arrested in the US.Whose agent was he? What was Holbrooke's AFPAK policy all about?All these are critical questions,but let them be for a later day.There was a bomb blast in Assam in a train,crash of ATC in Mumbai and some other incidents.US gave India a warning that Human bombs could be used next by terrorists...

Anyways,back to topic.

Does India gain in the upcoming negotiations with Pakistan and US? Objectively speaking,it does gain a talking point if the blame is pinned on Pakistani groups.This would help them negotiate but make things tricky at home.

Pakistan would be wary of finding its footprint in an attack in Mumbai.It does need the 800 mill USD,US is blocking.

So is it so far fetched to conclude that a third person/power could use Pak/Ind cells to carry this out the attack as Sarang suggested.Given,Headley case its neither far fetched nor too difficult.If you get this far, the rest of interest groups and therefore their reactions are not difficult to decipher.

Ofcourse,it doesnt mean that there would not be complicity from elements in Pakistan and coverup in India(easy way out of this is for UPA to pin blame on a local group).In which case,I wouldnt rule out a some discovery just before Clinton lands here or Pak FM departs.

If India was clear and aggresive against terror,this wouldnt have happened.

This is why MMS must explain UPA's Pakistan policy.

Sarang said...

@balaji, @Esoteric @all

One question. How did you get the idea that it must be Pakistani controlled terrorists who has done this?

If you visit the DoorDarshan news website (National News Service) at: www.ddinews.com nowhere is anyone saying anything YET about pakistan or ISI or LeT or IM etc etc.

Only Western controlled news papers are awash with pre-mature analysis that it had the bearings of Pakistan.

Sometimes there is a need to question the source of our assumptions.

I am definitely angry at the intelligence failure of the Congress governments in Mumbai and Center and am not ruling out Pakistan...but just keep your mind open.

@Esoteric

The idea of EU was sabotaged by Americo-British co-operation...to maintain British pre-dominance in Europe.

Over and out! ;)