Monday, February 14, 2011



The lava from the people's volcano in Egypt has started flowing in unexpected directions.

2. It did flow to Yemen and Algeria as widely expected, but on February 14 it started flowing in a totally unexpected direction towards Iran---a non-Arab country.

3. It is no longer a purely Arab anger. It is no longer a Muslim anger towards the West and Israel as Al Qaeda and the Ayatollahs of Iran had wanted it to be.

4. It has become the anger of the masses wherever people's rights are suppressed and people are subjected to hardships by uncaring rulers. One does not know when the lava will lose speed and stop and in which directions it will flow. Before it stops, the world is going to see changes in the political landscape of all countries where people are suppressed---- whether Arab or non-Arab, whether Muslim or non-Muslim, whether West, South or East Asia, whether Myanmarese or the Hans. The lava is going to be no respecter of rulers and regimes and their religion.

5. It could sweep everything before it. It could temporarily damage the global economy yet to recover fully from the recent economic melt-down.

6. We in India cannot afford to be over-confident that it can't affect us. It can. If it does due to our insensitivity and self-complacency, it will not have a pan-Indian impact. It will be an impact felt in some pockets where there is already people's anger as in the North-East or Jammu & Kashmir or in the tribal areas of central India.

7. We have to be alert. Being alert does not mean more security forces. It means actions to monitor the grievances and anger of the people and timely steps to address them.

8. If the protests succeed in Yemen and Algeria, the impact on India will most probably be minimal. If they succeed in Iran, the impact could be considerable. It could become worse if the lava further flows into Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

9. There were protests in Iran on February 14 in solidarity with the Egyptian people. There have been calls for more protests on February 15.

10. The Mubarak regime committed a serious mistake in underestimating the force of the people's anger. The Iranian regime will be committing a similar mistake if it under-estimates the force of the anger of its people. ( 15-2-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: )


Esoteric said...

Trouble has been brewing for elites and people in power since the last four years.First,the financial system as we know it collapsed.Economic recession followed the Financial collapse in both the developed and developing world.Political consequnces are starting to follow the economic hardships...

A unique set of circumstances and revelations through wikileaks and others have reduced public confidence of people in power to an all time low.

Not sure why you have pointed out only J&K and North East as flash points? J&K can flare up for sure...But did we not see people on the streets post 26/11?

Is the Govt not in scam-crisis? Amongst big nations,India and China have potential to go the Egypt way,especially India.Is Obama not a lame duck President?

Its not without reason Ive warned of a constitutional crisis(emergency imposition) in Mid-Year in India after TN elections.Its also around this time that the 2G scam would start reaching the ivy tower residents so would issues like Food inflation with Chinese crop failures reach its fruition.

Interesting times are ahead...

ambi said...

Mr. Raman as N S Sidhu says, all these are cycles in the cycle stand, one cycle falls others ll follow. bahut wickets girne wali hain.

As far as Kashmir is concerned i am not much worried, cause Pak is going to witness so much mayhem n chaos soon, that they ve hardly any time to create trouble in Kashmir. Zardari uncle, yaar US bodyguards manga hi lo, unhe aane mein time bhi to lagega, apne pass time hi kahan hain?

ambi said...

Our beloved, supreme, gracious leader Chairman Maomohan, is going to give 'darshan' to us ordinary public on TV through CON(dis)gress party influenced Xinhuas. Wow thats great! What questions are going to be asked, are already aired to chairman on all the channels from yesterday. What a charade! If BJP makes a deal n gives life line to CON(dis)gress, this time we ll fu*k BJP first n then we ll go after CON(dis)gress party.