Wednesday, July 7, 2010

THE SHADOWS IN J & K

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.664

B.RAMAN


In his message of February 12, 2007, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No.2 to Osama bin Laden, has spoken of a global Jihadi Intifada. Has he spoken of any special areas of focus for this Intifada?

Whenever he talks of a global jihad or now of a global Jihadi Intifada, Zawahiri makes it clear that this has to cover all lands in the world, which rightfully belong to Islam. After saying so, he specifies certain areas, which he thinks should receive special attention first. Of these, he gives the topmost priority to Afghanistan and Iraq. He says the future of Islam and of the global Intifada itself will be decided in those countries. If they can defeat the Americans there, the jihadis' victory in the rest of the lands will be assured. After mentioning these two countries, he mentions certain other areas specifically. He believes that the victory of the jihadis in these areas would also be crucial for the ultimate victory of Islam. These areas are Palestine, including Gaza, the Lebanon, Somalia, Algeria and Chechnya in Russia. He describes Somalia as the Southern garrison of Islam and Algeria as its Western garrison.

What does he mean by Jihadi Intifada?

A kind of struggle in which the role of motivated individual Muslims will become more important than that of organisations so that the weakening or collapse of an organisation does not result in a collapse of the Intifada. He wants the Intifada to acquire a momentum of its own as a result of the sacrifices of individual Muslims...... The importance of a central command and control in keeping the Intifada going is down-played. The motivation of individual Muslims is more important than any centralised command and control. He also projects the Intifada as a mix of military and non-military struggles. He says in his message of December 20, 2006: "We must bear arms. And if we are unable to bear them, then we must support those who carry them. This support comes in many forms and guises, so we must exploit all Dawah, student and union activities to back the Jihadi resistance....... The Muslim Ummah must exploit all methods of popular protest, like demonstrations, sit-ins, strikes, refusing to pay taxes, preventing cooperation with the security forces, refusing to provide the Crusaders with fuel, hitting traders who supply the Crusader forces, boycotting Crusader and Jewish products, and other ways of popular protest."

----- From my article of February 14,2007, titled JIHADI INTIFADA: QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/common/uploaded_files/paper2135.html

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What we are witnessing in certain areas of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) is the beginning of an intifada of Zawahiri's conception as propounded by him in his messages of February 12,2007,and earlier addressed to the Muslims of the world. One does not know whether Al Qaeda has had any role in the current violence in J&K, but its idea that the time had come to transform the jihad characterised by acts of terrorism into an intifada on a global scale characterised by leaderless street violence and the technique of a mix of military and non-military struggles has had some impact on the thinking and behaviour of some sections of the Kashmiri youth.

2. We are confronted with a situation marked by leaders without followers and followers without leaders. The traditional political leaders of J&K have no influence over the agitating youth. The agitating youth have no identifiable leaders to whom an approach can be made by the Government for bringing down the violence. Whatever be the extent of the Pakistani role in instigating the violence, it has acquired a momentum of its own unrelated to Pakistan. Islamabad has been exploiting the violence, but does not seem to be the originator of it.

3. The root cause is the growing perception among some sections of the youth that the security forces have been insensitive in performing their counter-insurgency duties and have been adopting objectionable methods ( e.g alleged false encounters) and using disproportionate force against the people. The current street violence has had no strategic political objective relating to the future political status of J&K. It is the result of an outburst of anger against the security forces. It does not have a strategic direction as yet, but may acquire one if it continues without the anger of the participating youth being pacified by the Government.

4. The anger of the youth might have been pacified initially if the Governments at Srinagar and New Delhi had shown some understanding of the anger and initiated measures to pacify it such as enquiries into allegations of excesses by the security forces, paying greater attention to complaints of violations of the human rights of the people and better ways of dealing with street protestors without using firearms. The succes of the last general elections in which nearly two-thirds of the voters participated and the perception that the ground situation was coming under control created a feeling of over-confidence in the Government at the centre, which slowed down the efforts to find a political soplution to the demands of the people and showed an increased insensitivity towards the anger of sections of the youth against the security forces.

5. The current movement started due to some anger against the security forces. Perceptions of political indifference to that anger has led to the anger turning against the political leadership. We find ourselves caught in a vicious circle. The more the publicly expressed anger against the security forces, the more the force used against the agitators and the more the force used against the agitators, the more the anger against the security forces.

6. When there was a decline in violence and we should have been taking advantage of it to deal with strategic issues relating to the future political set-up, we did not do so. Now, when the immediate objectiove should be to reduce the anger of the moment due to the grievances against the security forces, we are talking of long-term political issues. Better methods of street control to avoid the use of firearms, prompt and satisfactory attention to the complaints of the people regarding excessive use of force and violations of human rights, greater interactions between the Government and the agitating youth, greater control over our rhetoric to avoid demonisation of the agitators and attempts to remove the impression that the Government tends to bat for the errant elements in the security forces and not for the people are some of the immediate steps required. The use of the Army against the street agitators would be unwise unless the situation turms desperate leaving no other option. ( 8-7-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

7 comments:

ambi said...

That clown in the White House wasted two precious years in just cutting the branches, while roots of Al-qaeda & Taliban were well protected & flourishing in Pakistan. How many branches he is going to cut & for how many years? When it was revealed that Faisal Shahzad had taken training in North Waziristan by May 4, max by May 5 his forces shld have been in North Waziristan. But that idiot lost the nerve & now that idea has ‘lost’ the momentum.

As lord Krishna constantly warns Arjuna, that if u don’t fight this just war now, situation will force you to fight tomorrow, but at that time u ll be already fighting a losing battle cause time may not favour u. & exactly that’s what is happening. Leadership is not in him. When u don’t listen to what GOD says, this it what happens. Hence this mess.

That another great partner of USA in G2, PRC, the great peace loving empire of East, has given nukes to this kingdom of humanity, purity & piety the great Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Now that this monkey has got nuke gun in its hand. God bless this world.

A big storm is going to engulf this world now. India will be in better position compared to others as Al qaeda or no Al qaeda, being neighbour of Pakistan, situation remains same for India on the ground. I ld like to welcome USA in our great club of AKP. This is an elite club where u get your ASS KICKED BY PAKISTAN. Currently only India, Afghanistan, & Iran are part of it. Now that USA has also joined this club, we are eagerly waiting for China, which will join this exclusive club in a decade or so.

ambi said...

Oh my apology. i forgot to welcome Europeans in general & England in particular to our elite AKP club. Welcomes sirs welcome. Russians have already filled up the form & the precess is due. we ll surely enjoy each others company. pls come & have a seat.

ambi said...

Lahore - Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA), secretary Raja Zulqarnain has demanded that the government should hold thorough investigation about involvement of Black Water or any other foreign security agency in Data Darbar blast.
He condemned the element, which wanted to blame Punjabi Talban for this incident, to which he called a national tragedy. It is just to protect the culprits coming beyond the borders to disintegrate Pakistan.
Addressing a press conference here on Wednesday, he said that legal fraternity had some serious doubts about connection of some foreign agencies in this tragic and inhuman act and even no Muslim could dare to think of blast at a holy place. He said that the government should put on record about presence of forces persons in Embassies of USA, UK, India, Afghanistan and others and their activities should be monitored. He said likewise, the details about staff of UN offices in Pakistan and their movements and other activities should also be watched. He said that the local agencies should also check the luggage container of foreign agencies coming to Pakistan.
He said that some foreign forces wanted to hit country’s nuclear and other projects like gas pipeline from Iran and getting nuclear technology from China. He said that the people in power and other politicians should come with clear-cut stand on the security and foreign interference issues.
Vice president SCBA Mian Waheed Akhtar and president Tax Bar Association Ajmal Khan also demanded action against foreign element, which had disrupted the peace in the country.

芸茂芸茂 said...

成功多屬於那些很快做出決定,卻又不輕易變更的人。而失敗也經常屬於那些很難做出決定,卻又經常變更的人.................................................................

Ram said...

Dear Ramanji,

What you have mentioned is absolutely true. Does India does not have the expertise in use of non lethal weapons like rubber bullets, baton charges or water pressure to control unruly mobs?

It is clear even to a layman that Kashmiri politicians and civil administration in particular do not have the competence and expertise to tackle these situations. What are the lessons learned in period 1990-2009? How are they relevant today?

Also Central government is equally culpable as they do not have mature Cabinet minister to deal and personally supervise operations. As you have accurately pointed out Kashmir is not the JAGIR of any political family (KASHMIR IS THE HEART OF INDIA)-proper administration and job opportunities for the youth will go a long way in controlling the situation.

The biggest mistake committed by CM Omar Abdullah is he has not been on the spot to take timely action and though would get away by blaming the security forces. This is a fatal and serious miscalculation.Incompetent and immature leadership has been the hallmark of Indian leadership in Kashmir.

The people to blame are top ministers and bureaucrats in New Delhi and Srinagar who allowed the situation to go out of hand.

After all security forces are humans and not machines. Time and again political, bureaucratic and political leadership are sacrificing lower ranks to Maoists and terrorists and making mockery of the Indian nation!

Can you suggest solution and does the retired leadership have the honesty, honor and determination to speak out in media against the current Governments in Delhi and Srinagar to get them to rectify their mistakes ?

Regards

Ram

nrisgp2010 said...

Print This Article

Daily News & Analysis


Government under pressure to sack J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah

Anil Anand / DNA
Friday, July 9, 2010 1:30
Pakistan could be instigating the brigades of stone-throwers. The transcript of a telephone conversation between two Hurriyat separatists showed that they were discussing the killing of at least 15 people during a rally in Srinagar.

A highly-placed home ministry source claimed to have found evidence to establish that money was being sent from Dubai to keep Kashmir’s army of stone-pelters going. Funds were being routed through money transfer agency, Western Union, and there have been transactions of up to Rs10 lakh.


Pressure is building on the Centre to sack key members of the Kashmir government, including chief minister Omar Abdullah. Suggestions are coming in for taking action against the security
establishment.

The call for Omar’s removal came from certain Kashmir-centric “intellectuals and academicians” in their interactions with top officials in the prime minister’s office. They believe the Omar’s removal will pacify separatists and bring peace.

The suggestion to remove the chief minister seems untenable, particularly since no alternative candidate is available to the Congress, which is a partner in the National Conference government in the state.

The idea of imposing Governor’s Rule (it’s not President’s Rule in J&K) is not acceptable to the Centre as it would not like to be directly involved in the state administration, since this could give separatists more rope.

The threat over Omar might die down sooner than later, but questions are being asked about the absence of his father, union minister Farooq Abdullah, from Kashmir. He has been camping in London for the past week, where his wife lives. Abdullah family sources dismissed reports of differences between father and son and clarified that the minister was in London because of his wife’s illness.

Even as the Centre struggles to bring peace to the Valley, new evidence has cropped up suggesting that
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nrisgp2010 said...

Government under pressure to sack J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah

Anil Anand / DNA
Friday, July 9, 2010 1:30
Even as the Centre struggles to bring peace to the Valley, new evidence has cropped up suggesting that
Pakistan could be instigating the brigades of stone-throwers. The transcript of a telephone conversation between two Hurriyat separatists showed that they were discussing the killing of at least 15 people during a rally in Srinagar.

A highly-placed home ministry source claimed to have found evidence to establish that money was being sent from Dubai to keep Kashmir’s army of stone-pelters going. Funds were being routed through money transfer agency, Western Union, and there have been transactions of up to Rs10 lakh.


Pressure is building on the Centre to sack key members of the Kashmir government, including chief minister Omar Abdullah. Suggestions are coming in for taking action against the security
establishment.

The call for Omar’s removal came from certain Kashmir-centric “intellectuals and academicians” in their interactions with top officials in the prime minister’s office. They believe the Omar’s removal will pacify separatists and bring peace.

The suggestion to remove the chief minister seems untenable, particularly since no alternative candidate is available to the Congress, which is a partner in the National Conference government in the state.

The idea of imposing Governor’s Rule (it’s not President’s Rule in J&K) is not acceptable to the Centre as it would not like to be directly involved in the state administration, since this could give separatists more rope.

The threat over Omar might die down sooner than later, but questions are being asked about the absence of his father, union minister Farooq Abdullah, from Kashmir. He has been camping in London for the past week, where his wife lives. Abdullah family sources dismissed reports of differences between father and son and clarified that the minister was in London because of his wife’s illness.