Friday, May 14, 2010

WARNING SIGNALS FROM POK

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.648

B.RAMAN

Quoting local political sources in Jammu & Kashmir, the British Broadcasting Corporation reported in its web site on May 14,2010, that terrorists ( it calls them as always militants) have regrouped in Pakistan-Occupied KasHmir (POK).


2.It quoted Mr.Arif Shahid, Secretary-General of the All Parties National Alliance (APNA), as saying as follows: " Jihadi activities have been restarted during the last few weeks.Most of the activities are concentrated in the Neelum Valley along the Line of Control.Militants were based there in large numbers and have set up camps in the area. The men are not locals - they have long hair and beards. Most do not speak the local language."


3.The BBC added that local citizens in the Neelum Valley told it much the same thing. It quoted a local resident as saying: "We are scared.The armed men are moving around the area and are trying to cross the border. We can make out from their appearances and languages they are not from any part of Kashmir."


4.Mr Shahid said that he believed that the militants were planning to sabotage the ongoing Pakistan-India peace negotiations. He added: "They have set up camps in the region and many are crossing the border.This is the start of another proxy war."


5.According to the BBC, Mr.Shahid's comments were corroborated by Shaukat Maqbool Bhat, head of the anti-Indian Jammu Kashmir National Liberation Front (JKNLF).Bhat told the BBC: "The fighters are there and they are regularly crossing into India.The local people are very scared - they believe the [militant] crossings are going to restart artillery exchanges between the Pakistani and Indian armies."


6. An ominous part of the BBC report is the claim that the people who are re-grouping in the POK do not seem to be locals and speak a different language. Generally, Pakistani terrorists trained and infiltrated into J&K from the POK speak either one of the Kashmiri dialects or Punjabi. The local residents can identify both. The fact that the BBC's sources have not been able to identify the language spoken by the people re-grouping in the POK would indicate that these persons could be Pashtuns recruited either by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or one of the Punjabi Taliban organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri, which used to be a wing of the HUJI, the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) or the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM).


7. Pakistan's political and military leadership, its intelligence agencies, its judiciary and civil society do not admit that there is terrorism in J&K. They always project what is happening in J&K as a freedom struggle. They justify the activities of these organisations in J&K on the ground that J&K is Pakistani territory where they have a right to act in solidarity with the Kashmiris.The Government of Pervez Musharraf as well as the present Government headed by Prime Minister Yousefv Raza Gilani make a clear distinction between the so-called freedom struggle in J&K and acts of terrorism in Indian territory outside J&K.


8. They regard whatever assurances they had given since January 2004 regarding not supporting terrorism as applicable only to Indian territory outside J&K. They also feel that while the US and other Western countries would be against any Pakistani-sponsored terrorism in Indian territory outside J&K, they would not react strongly against renewed acts of violence in J&K, which they regard as a disputed territory.


9. The TTP and the Punjabi Taliban organisations criticise the Pakistani Government on two grounds----- firstly, its implied support to the US Drone (pilotless planes) strikes in South and North Waziristan and, secondly, its alleged restrictions on the activities of the Pakistani terrorist organisations not only in Indian territory outside J&K, but also even in J&K.


10.The Pakistan Government is not in a position to stop the Drone strikes. Moreover, the Pakistan Army looks upon the Drone strikes as necessary for the success of its own ground operations against the TTP. However, to soften the TTP it would not hesitate to give it and its Punjabi associates a free hand in J&K. An increase in acts of terrorism in J&K, with the participation of not only Pakistani Punjabis, but also the Pashtuns of the Taliban, is a risk to be guarded against in the months and weeks to come. ( 15-5-10)


( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

3 comments:

ambi said...

Sir,

There is still time for this government to reverse its mistakes. As we now have promised the world & Barack the great, that we ll talk to Pakistan, then our Foreign Minister & Home Minister shld go to Pakistan watch a nice Lollywood Movie, may be ‘Maula jut’ say thank you to their Pakistani counterparts & come back home. Nothing more.

As Pakistan has promised that they will take action in North Waziristan at their convenience, India should also promise that we ll be talking to Pakistan as per our own convenience.

Now that US has cleared its stand, it is good to see that India has also changing their moves. When S M Krishna goes to Iran, I think first thing he should do is to say sorry to Iran President, for our foolish moves, & assure firm support now & in future.

This unipolar world is a hell, Multipolar world is the only chance for the countries like ours, if they wish to live & progress.

Sarang said...

The first line of defence in stopping terrorism from pakistan is through Government to Government diplomacy, something that is pathetically absent in India (we are bearing this cruelty for the last 20 years). The second line of defence is physical elimination of terrorists by Police and Army in J&K. Barring a few incidences, we must appreciate the enormous efforts put in by our security forces to thwart the designs of terrorists for the last 25 years!! So, our first line of defence has been virtually non-existent and we have been heavily relying on only our second line of defence. This has got to change!
But, as a citizen of India, I have lost a lot of confidence in my Government (be it UPA, NDA or any other) to effectively end Pakistani terrorism using diplomacy. This is also responsible for erosion of the world's confidence in India as a mediator or global player. If India cannot solve its own problems (with miniscule neighbours) how do you expect the world to have confidence in us for solving global challenges?

ambi said...

India needs European Union.

Sir,

I was pondering about the uni polar world & it’s consequences on the world. Sir, Mao had predicted that there will be six powers which will be influencing this world in this & coming century. They were:

USA
USSR
Europe
Japan
China &
India.

Sir! Out of these, USSR is already disintegrated & Russia has already lost most of the sheen. Japan though rich is already aging (still it will be playing imp. role in the world dynamics for many decades). So out of the six only 4 are left in the game. USA is still number one & stable, while European Union China & India are still not that influential & more vulnerable compared to US.

Now even European Union is on the verge of dissolving. God forbid, if European Union dissolves, then only two powers which are vulnerable are India & China. Then who ll be on the radar of USA next? I am afraid it is India. & next is of course China. It will be a real nightmare for the whole world.

If I am not wrong, European Union is about 11 trillion dollar Economy. So euro can become a god alternative for US thus keeping a good balance of power. Its testing time for EU members. I request their leadership to keep restrain & should not take any wrong decision under pressure. EU leadership should show farsightedness & should be ready to sacrifice something for the greater cause. Every crisis is an opportunity. This crisis should bring EU leaders more closer.

Europe needs EU. World needs EU. Europe needs Euro. We need Euro. I again request EU leadership to come closer & follow India’s example, where many states & communities are living together happily for a bigger cause. Where more developed states compensate for other weaker states.

If EU collapses, that will be very bad news for us. The whole world ll be slave to USD for many decades to come. Leadership of India & China along with Russia shld help EU if they ask for. We really need Multi polar world.