KILINOCHCHI: THE SPECTRE OF STALINGRAD

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.458

B.RAMAN

The Battle of Stalingrad is considered the bloodiest battle with the largest battlefield casualties in the history of conventional warfare.Under a carefully worked out plan, the Soviet Army inveigled an advancing and over-confident Nazi Army into Stalingrad and then inflictedsevere casualties on the Nazi Army. Many of those Nazi soldiers whom the Soviet Army could not kill were killed by "Gen.Winter". The entireSixth Army of the Nazis was trapped by the Soviet troops with the help of "Gen.Winter" and destroyed.

2. As the battle began on July 17,1942, the Nazi Disinformation machine worked overtime to tell an unsuspecting German people that the fallof Stalingrad and the collapse of the Soviet Army were imminent. The German people waited with bated breath for the news of thefall."Within two days", they were told. Two days became two weeks. Two weeks became two months. Two months became seven months.The battle ended disastrously for the Nazis on February 2, 1943. This marked the beginning of the end of the Nazi dreams in the SecondWorld War.

3. Is one seeing a mini version of Stalingrad in the battle for Kilinochchi, the current headqurters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam(LTTE)? It is difficult to say on the basis of the scanty information available from the battle front. From even this scanty information, twothings are clear: Firstly, the Sri Lankan Army, which senses victory against the LTTE, has been doing well, but not as well as it claims to be.Secondly, the LTTE has been doing badly, but not as badly as projected to be by the disinformation machine of the Sri Lankan Army . TheLTTE has shown that there is still a lot of fight left in it---- and a lot of intelligence and innovative thinking.

4. But intelligence and innovatrive thinking alone cannot win wars without resources and the wherewithal. The LTTE is deficient on bothcounts. But it has shown itself to be as resilient as the Taliban in Afghanistan and as fiercely-motivated. In 2003, the Americans thought andclaimed that they had finished the Taliban once and for all. Their facile assumptions proved to be wrong. The Taliban came back----as if ithas risen from its much-proclaimed grave--- and has been moving forward relentlessly. Neither air strikes by the most powerful Air Force inthe world nor heavy artillery strikes by the most powerful Army in the world have been able to stop its advance.Reluctantly, senior NATOmilitary commanders in Afghanistasn have started admitting that the war against the Taliban is unwinnable and that one has to search for apolitical solution with neither victory nor defeat for either side. It has not only become unwinnable unless the Taliban commits some serioustactical mistakes, but is also likely to become increasingly unaffordable thanks to the financial and economic melt-down in the US and therest of the world.

5. The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more months, a prolonged war against the LTTEcould become as unwinnable and as unaffordable for the rulers of Sri Lanka as a prolonged war against the Taliban for the NATO powers.The rulers of Sri Lanka are living in a fool's paradise if they think that China and Pakistan would come to their rescue if the Government ofIndia stops assisting them under pressure from public opinion in Tamil Nadu. The Pakistani economy is on the verge of a collapse. Even theChinese were reluctant to help out their time-tested friend as they call Pakistan, as President Asif Ali Zardari found to his dismay when hevisited China recently. The Pakistan Army is reeling under one set-back after another inflicted on it by the Taliban. To think that thePakistan Army would rush to Sri Lanka to spite India would be the height of stupidity.

6. The Chinese, who are increasingly worried over the impact of the recession in the US on their manufacturing industries, which are heavilydependent on the US market, are hugging tight their foreign exchange holdings. They were reluctant to make any definitive commitment of help to Zardari. They are even showing a decline of interest in further developing the Gwadar port project. In a world besetwith the most serious economic crisis it has known since the Great Depression of the 1930s, everybody, including China, is interested insaving every dollar and cent he can. Nobody wants a foreign adventure, which might drain off their depleting resources. If the Sri LankanArmy thinks that China would try to rush in if India stops helping, it is in for a disappointment.

7. The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more weeks, "Gen.Monsoon" and"Gen.Recession" could put an end to the pipedreams of the Sri Lankan Army of a definitive victory over the LTTE.

8. Will its calculations prove right or will they be belied? Whatever happens, one thing seems likely---- there is going to be no definitivevictory or no definitive defeat for either side in the on-going war.

9. Annexed is an AFP despatch on the present ground situation in the Kilinochchi area.( 20-10-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

ANNEXURE

Tigers blunt Sri Lanka's drive to capture powerbase

COLOMBO, Oct 20, 2008 (AFP) - Dogged resistance by Tamil Tiger guerrillas appears to have held up a Sri Lankan military offensive in thenorth aimed at smashing the rebels' de facto state, analysts and military sources say.

A bullish government earlier this month said it was poised to capture the Tigers' Kilinochchi powerbase, 330 kilometres (206 miles) north ofColombo.

That drive, however, could take longer than anticipated with the separatist Tigers digging in, an army stretching to defend territory alreadyseized, and poor weather hampering operations, the sources say.

Security forces had banked on a quick fall of Kilinochchi, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam's (LTTE's) political capital.

In early October the army said it was within two kilometres, but since then there has been little forward movement and monsoon rains havealso slowed the troops' advance.

The increased resistance in recent weeks is in sharp contrast to an earlier LTTE fallback that enabled troops to move rapidly into rebelterritory.


'Troops operating in the south of Kilinochchi are making progress, though they have not shown a rapid progress within the past few days,'said defence analyst Ranil Wijayapala in the state-run Daily News.

He blamed adverse weather, with heavy rains currently lashing the north.
Military sources said increased air attacks have failed to soften up Tiger defences for ground troops to smash through, while the army isstretched.

'With the rapid advance last month, the military is also forced to tie down a lot of soldiers to protect areas newly captured from the Tigers,' amilitary officer who declined to be named said.

'The Tigers won't be able to hold Kilinochchi for too long, but they can delay the fall,' the officer said.

Aid sources who have had rare access to the region say the guerrillas have moved civilians out of Kilinochchi and appeared to be digging inby building new bunkers.

Losing Kilinochchi would be a major blow to the Tigers, who set up the town as capital of their mini-state after taking the area fromgovernment forces 10 years ago.

Sri Lanka's military moved to take the town after their success in driving the Tigers from their eastern strongholds in July last year. Themilitary has been keen to replicate that success in the north.

Previous attempts to take Kilinochchi using large columns of troops failed because Tigers deployed suicide bombers against them,persuading the military to switch to more effective smaller units of special forces.

'The success this time is due to the use of small groups across a broad front,' retired brigadier general Vipul Boteju said.

The military says it has killed about 7,500 Tigers since the start of this year, when the government pulled out of a moribund truce arrangedand put in place by Norwegian peace brokers.

But there is also a heavy cost for the military, reflecting the bitterness of the conflict.

Figures tabled in parliament show 1,099 soldiers were killed in the first nine months of 2008, with September seeing the highest number offatalities -- 200 killed and 997 wounded.

Almost 7,000 soldiers were wounded in the first nine months of the year and 396 civilians were killed.

The guerrillas have not released their casualty estimates but say they are putting up stiff resistance.

The government's 2009 defence budget suggests it is braced for a drawn-out military campaign. Colombo allocated a record 177 billionrupees (1.6 billion dollars) for defence in 2009, up from 166 billion rupees in 2008.

But the Tamil Tigers, who took up arms in 1972 for a separatist homeland, have shown in the past they can turn the tables on the military.

Barely six months after government troops captured the Jaffna peninsula in 1995, the Tigers over-ran a military base in the northeast, killingmore than 1,200 soldiers.

The guerrillas also reversed military gains of the previous 19 months in a matter of five days in November 1999, dislodging the military froma key base at the entrance to the Jaffna peninsula.