B.RAMAN
With the next elections to Pakistan’s National Assembly due in the beginning of 2013, Pakistani politics has started picking up momentum and sliding into the contentious and venomous mode.
2. In their attempt to mobilise party faithfuls and gather fresh pockets of support, Pakistani political leaders have been exploiting three main issues: the alleged corruption and incompetence of President Asif Ali Zardari, the alleged unreliability and opportunism of Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), and the anti-US anger.
3. While Nawaz’s PML has made Zardari’s sins of commission and omission the target of its anger, Imran Khan and his Tehreek-e-Insaaf ( PTI) have been focussing for the present on the anti-US anger to rally support for their movement against the Government. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) headed by the UK-based Altaf Hussain has come out in support of Zardari and against Nawaz. Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has been carefully watching the campaign unfold without getting into a vigorous counter campaign. It is not worried by Imran Khan. Its main worry is Nawaz, but for the present it is content to let the MQM counter the PML (N) without the PPP itself getting into battle station.
4. On October 28,2011, the PML (N) held a huge anti-Zardari rally in Lahore (about 40,000), while Imran Khan’s PTI held an anti-US rally in Islamabad. No estimate of the support attracted by the PTI’s rally is available. The PTI is holding an anti-Government rally in Lahore on October 30 and the MQM an anti-PML (N) rally in Karachi the same day.
5. The PPP has no reasons to be concerned for the present. Its support base in rural Sindh remains strong. Despite its differences with the MQM over its inept handling of the bad law and order situation in Karachi, it has reasons to be gratified over the continuing opposition of the MQM to Nawaz Sharif.
6.The PPP and the PML (N) have retained their major bases of support in Punjab----with no evidence of any major attrition one way or the other. The anti-US anger is unlikely to be a major political issue either in Sindh or in Punjab.
7. The public fall-out of the anti-US anger is presently confined to the Pashtun belt in the Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa (KP) province and the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Imran Khan has been trying to exploit this anger by focussing his campaign on the inability of the Zardari Government to stop the US Drone (pilotless plane) strikes in the FATA. It remains to be seen what effect Imran’s campaign has on the support base of the Awami National Party (ANP), which continues to be an ally of the PPP despite its unhappiness over the anti-Pashtun attacks---allegedly by the MQM cadres---in Karachi. Balochistan does not count for much in the budding campaign.
8. The war of words between the Pakistan Army, the Foreign Office and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) on the one side and the US political and military leaders on the other over the ISI’s alleged collusion with the Haqqani network in Afghanistan has not excited much public interest despite the high decibel projection of the war of words in the Indian and Pakistani print and electronic media. The public anger over the May 2 US raid in Abbottabad, which led to the killing of Osama bin Laden, has subsided. OBL has already become passee and no tears are being shed over his death. Even the fundamentalist political parties such as the Jamat-e-Islami (JEI) and the Jamaat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) have not been able to create a street hysteria over the US raid.
9. The main issue angering the voters today is the deteriorating economic situation, which could get worse if the US threat to cut down---if not stop--- its assistance to Pakistan is carried out. Even though the political and military leadership has been trying to project a couldn’t care less attitude over threats of US aid cut-off, they know that neither China nor Saudi Arabia could compensate for what Pakistan would lose should the US carry out its threat. With the next elections about 18 months away, it would not be in the interest of any of the mainstream parties for the economic situation to deteriorate further.
10. While the political drum-beats are to be expected, no clear-cut answers are available to two questions: Will the opposition try for a premature election in 2012 and what would be the attitude of the Army in the event of the contentious political debate getting more venomous ?
11. The indications from reliable sources in Pakistan close to the Army are that the GHQ in Rawalpindi has no stomach for a direct political role similar to what it had pre-2008 and would prefer that the elections are held as scheduled. The Army’s present preoccupation is the war of words with the US.
12. According to these sources, both the military and political leaders in Pakistan are feeling uncomfortable with the continuing war of words and are searching for an honourable way out without seeming to betray the Haqqani network which has remained loyal to Islamabad and Rawalpindi. ( 29-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Friday, October 28, 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
CHINESE CONCERNS OVER SOCIAL MEDIA NETWORKS
B.RAMAN
The growing concerns of the Communist Party of China (CPC) over the destabilising potential of social media networks were reflected during the meeting of the Party Central Committee held at Beijing from October 15 to 18, 2011, under the presidentship of Hu Jintao, Party General Secretary.
2. The special meeting of the Party CC, which was convened ostensibly to discuss and decide on the need for cultural reforms and on measures required to strengthen China’s soft power to enable it to keep pace with its economic power, was also devoted to discussing the concerns of the Party leadership over the difficulties being experienced in preventing the perceived misuse of microblogs to spread dissatisfaction among the people over the sins of commission and omission of the leadership.
3. While the Party and the Government continue to maintain a tight control over the print media, they have not been able to control the dissemination and discussion of information regarding the failings of the leadership in the microblogs. The free discussion by the netizens in microblogs has reduced the relevance of the controlled discussions in the National People’s Congress (NPC), which is the country’s Parliament.
4. The Government/Party vetted reports on the proceedings of the NPC and the Party Central Committee as disseminated by the print media enjoy less and less credibility and the reports and critiques as disseminated by the netizens through their microblogs are enjoying increasing credibility.
5. Recently, the Government and the Party miserably failed in their attempts to cover up the inadequacies which led to a major train accident. The truth was brought out by the netizens through their microblogs. There have been other similar instances where attempts of the State and the Party to cover up their failings and the inadequacies in policy formulation and implementation were thwarted by alert netizens and tweeple.
6. The magnitude of the problem faced by the State and the party could be guessed from the fact that the number of Chinese users registered on domestic microblog sites such as Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo reached 195 million by the end of June, a more than threefold increase since the end of 2010, according to the China Internet Network Information Center. That is, nearly about 20 per cent of China’s population---most of them youth--- are now able to discuss among themselves matters of the State and the Party and of public interest without the State being able to exercise any control over their access to information and their discussion on the information thus disseminated through the microblogs. It should be noted, however, that there is a huge difference between registered users and active users. It is estimated that only about one-third of the registered users actively and regularly use the microblogs. Even that number is large.
7. Official denials of what the Government describes as rumours are no longer accepted by the 500 million strong web civil society of netizens, of whom about 195 million constitute the community of tweeple. Recent official denials of tweets about the alleged crash of an Air Force plane during a test flight and regarding some budgetary proposals have been disbelieved by the netizens, who continue to insist in their tweets and posts on the correctness of their information.
8.The Chinese Tweeple, who are using the microblogs as a political weapon to hold the State and the Party accountable for their sins of omission and commission, do not have any motivated agenda to destabilise the Government and the Party and to bring an end to the one-party rule. Since the traditional media and State and party organs do not give them an opportunity to openly voice their grievances and criticisms, they are using the platform provided by the microblogs to do so without any intention of wanting to destabilise the country.
9.But the Government and the Party fear that a cumulative effect of their use of the microblogs could be to create pockets of alienation in the civil society and ultimately unite those alienated against the Government and the State.
10.The Chinese Government has been trying to counter the anti-establishment soft power of the tweeple at two levels. Firstly, by encouraging the party cells and the Government offices to follow a pro-active policy of making a better use of the social media networks---particularly the microblogs---- to disseminate the correct information and to counter rumours and misperceptions. It has been reported that about 60,000 party cells and government offices are already aggressively using the microblogs for this purpose.
11.Secondly, by exercising pressure on the owners of the social media networks to tighten censorship and control over the main search engine Baidu and the microblogs in order to filter and keep out what the Government projects as rumours and criticism with a potential for destabilisation . Such measures were not very successful in June when rumours regarding the alleged death of Jiang Zemin, the predecessor of Hu as State President and Party General Secretary, spread through microblogs despite the counter-measures taken by the Ministry of Public Security.
12. It is in the light of such incidents and experiences that the Party CC discussed what further measures needed to be taken to eliminate the potential for destabilisation of the social media networks. It is reported that there are 15 such networks in China, of which four are most popular.
13. A statement issued at the end of the meeting, which was published on October 26, vowed to "strengthen guidance and administration of social Internet services and instant communications tools, and regulate the orderly dissemination of information." It also said the Government should "apply the law to sternly punish the dissemination of harmful information."
14. The statement called on China's conventional media (print, TV and radio ) to correctly guide public opinion, to emphasize positive propaganda, and to uphold stability and unity. At the same time, it added that the people should have the right to know what is going on, the right to participate in and monitor events, and the right to express themselves.
15.The State Internet Information Office said on October 26 that it had asked the police to prosecute those responsible for spreading a bogus tax policy announcement and rumours that a fighter jet had crashed, killing the pilot.
16."The Internet is a microphone that everyone can use, but it is not one that everyone can use well," the People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, said in an editorial. The official Xinhua news agency has reported that three people, including a website editor, had been punished for spreading rumours.
17.The growing community of netizens and tweeple have realised their power against the State and the Party and the Government is going to find it difficult now to deprive them of this power. Any attempt to do so through oppressive measures might itself set in motion a destabilising chain of events ultimately threatening the power of the State and the Party in a one-party State. ( 27-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
The growing concerns of the Communist Party of China (CPC) over the destabilising potential of social media networks were reflected during the meeting of the Party Central Committee held at Beijing from October 15 to 18, 2011, under the presidentship of Hu Jintao, Party General Secretary.
2. The special meeting of the Party CC, which was convened ostensibly to discuss and decide on the need for cultural reforms and on measures required to strengthen China’s soft power to enable it to keep pace with its economic power, was also devoted to discussing the concerns of the Party leadership over the difficulties being experienced in preventing the perceived misuse of microblogs to spread dissatisfaction among the people over the sins of commission and omission of the leadership.
3. While the Party and the Government continue to maintain a tight control over the print media, they have not been able to control the dissemination and discussion of information regarding the failings of the leadership in the microblogs. The free discussion by the netizens in microblogs has reduced the relevance of the controlled discussions in the National People’s Congress (NPC), which is the country’s Parliament.
4. The Government/Party vetted reports on the proceedings of the NPC and the Party Central Committee as disseminated by the print media enjoy less and less credibility and the reports and critiques as disseminated by the netizens through their microblogs are enjoying increasing credibility.
5. Recently, the Government and the Party miserably failed in their attempts to cover up the inadequacies which led to a major train accident. The truth was brought out by the netizens through their microblogs. There have been other similar instances where attempts of the State and the Party to cover up their failings and the inadequacies in policy formulation and implementation were thwarted by alert netizens and tweeple.
6. The magnitude of the problem faced by the State and the party could be guessed from the fact that the number of Chinese users registered on domestic microblog sites such as Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo reached 195 million by the end of June, a more than threefold increase since the end of 2010, according to the China Internet Network Information Center. That is, nearly about 20 per cent of China’s population---most of them youth--- are now able to discuss among themselves matters of the State and the Party and of public interest without the State being able to exercise any control over their access to information and their discussion on the information thus disseminated through the microblogs. It should be noted, however, that there is a huge difference between registered users and active users. It is estimated that only about one-third of the registered users actively and regularly use the microblogs. Even that number is large.
7. Official denials of what the Government describes as rumours are no longer accepted by the 500 million strong web civil society of netizens, of whom about 195 million constitute the community of tweeple. Recent official denials of tweets about the alleged crash of an Air Force plane during a test flight and regarding some budgetary proposals have been disbelieved by the netizens, who continue to insist in their tweets and posts on the correctness of their information.
8.The Chinese Tweeple, who are using the microblogs as a political weapon to hold the State and the Party accountable for their sins of omission and commission, do not have any motivated agenda to destabilise the Government and the Party and to bring an end to the one-party rule. Since the traditional media and State and party organs do not give them an opportunity to openly voice their grievances and criticisms, they are using the platform provided by the microblogs to do so without any intention of wanting to destabilise the country.
9.But the Government and the Party fear that a cumulative effect of their use of the microblogs could be to create pockets of alienation in the civil society and ultimately unite those alienated against the Government and the State.
10.The Chinese Government has been trying to counter the anti-establishment soft power of the tweeple at two levels. Firstly, by encouraging the party cells and the Government offices to follow a pro-active policy of making a better use of the social media networks---particularly the microblogs---- to disseminate the correct information and to counter rumours and misperceptions. It has been reported that about 60,000 party cells and government offices are already aggressively using the microblogs for this purpose.
11.Secondly, by exercising pressure on the owners of the social media networks to tighten censorship and control over the main search engine Baidu and the microblogs in order to filter and keep out what the Government projects as rumours and criticism with a potential for destabilisation . Such measures were not very successful in June when rumours regarding the alleged death of Jiang Zemin, the predecessor of Hu as State President and Party General Secretary, spread through microblogs despite the counter-measures taken by the Ministry of Public Security.
12. It is in the light of such incidents and experiences that the Party CC discussed what further measures needed to be taken to eliminate the potential for destabilisation of the social media networks. It is reported that there are 15 such networks in China, of which four are most popular.
13. A statement issued at the end of the meeting, which was published on October 26, vowed to "strengthen guidance and administration of social Internet services and instant communications tools, and regulate the orderly dissemination of information." It also said the Government should "apply the law to sternly punish the dissemination of harmful information."
14. The statement called on China's conventional media (print, TV and radio ) to correctly guide public opinion, to emphasize positive propaganda, and to uphold stability and unity. At the same time, it added that the people should have the right to know what is going on, the right to participate in and monitor events, and the right to express themselves.
15.The State Internet Information Office said on October 26 that it had asked the police to prosecute those responsible for spreading a bogus tax policy announcement and rumours that a fighter jet had crashed, killing the pilot.
16."The Internet is a microphone that everyone can use, but it is not one that everyone can use well," the People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, said in an editorial. The official Xinhua news agency has reported that three people, including a website editor, had been punished for spreading rumours.
17.The growing community of netizens and tweeple have realised their power against the State and the Party and the Government is going to find it difficult now to deprive them of this power. Any attempt to do so through oppressive measures might itself set in motion a destabilising chain of events ultimately threatening the power of the State and the Party in a one-party State. ( 27-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
CHINA: TIBETAN-CONSCIOUSNESS MOVEMENT SPREADS
B.RAMAN
The unrest in the Tibetan areas of China ---Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan and Yunnan--- continues in different forms. The unrest was triggered off in March last by unhappiness among the Tibetans of Sichuan over the continued suppression of their political, religious and ethnic rights by the Chinese authorities and over their attempts to punish anyone who proclaimed his or her loyalty to His Holiness the Dalai Lama.
2.The unrest in the Tibetan areas of Sichuan has taken the form of a chain of self-immolations by young Tibetan monks of the large Kirti monastery. The Chinese authorities have not been able to stop these acts or attempted acts of self-immolation despite their removing a large number of monks of the monastery to a military detention camp euphemistically called a re-education centre and punishing those present at the time of the self-immolations on charges of abetment to suicide. They have also been forcing senior monks to come out with statements condemning self-immolations as unBuddhist and have launched a campaign against His Holiness for not condemning self-immolations.
3. Despite these suppressive measures, acts or attempted acts of self-immolation continue with nine so far. In the latest incident reported on October 17, 2011, a nun is reported to have committed self-immolation. This is the first instance of a self-immolation by a nun in the history of Tibetan Buddhism. Wamgmo, the 20-year-old nun, was from the Mamo or Dechen Choekorling Nunnery, which has about 350 nuns in Ngaba. Nuns from here had also participated in the March 2008 protest movement,
4. The same day, the Chinese police opened fire on a group of protesting Tibetans, injuring two of them. There were no fatalities. The shooting followed a protest the previous day in the Khekor township of Serthar (in Chinese, Seda) county of the Kardze (in Chinese, Ganzi) prefecture. A group of seven Tibetans protested in front of the local police station and shouted slogans calling for freedom for Tibet, the return of His Holiness from exile and the release from jail of His Holiness the Panchen Lama, chosen by the Dalai Lama in accordance with Tibetan Buddhist traditions. The Chinese have jailed him and the Communist Party of China has nominated its own Panchen Lama who has not been accepted by the Tibetans.
5.The self-immolations in Sichuan have been accompanied by protests and commercial strikes by Tibetans in the towns and villages to which those committing self-immolation belonged. The Tibetan community of Sichuan observed a day of fasting and protest on October 19 to express solidarity with the families of those who committed self-immolation. The acts of self-immolation have not so far spread to other Tibetan areas outside Sichuan.
6. However, a Tibetan-consciousness movement has been spreading right across the Tibetan belt. The objective of the movement is to enhance the consciousness of the Tibetans---particularly the youth--- about the distinct nature of the Tibetan culture as distinguished from the Han culture and to impress upon the youth the importance of preserving the Tibetan culture and maintaining their loyalty and devotion to His Holiness the Dalai Lama. The monasteries have been in the forefront of this movement.
7. As part of this Tibetan-consciousness movement, Tibetans are being encouraged to dress in typical Tibetan style, speak among themselves only in the Tibetan language, eat only Tibetan food and participate in joint prayer meetings. Reports received from Tibet and other Tibetan areas say that thousands of Tibetans---many of them youth—are participating in the peaceful gatherings organised by this movement. The Chinese authorities have till now refrained from disrupting this movement lest it lead to any violence.
8. At the Sershul monastery in the Kardze (in Chinese, Ganzi) Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of the Sichuan province, more than 20,000 Tibetan monks and others gathered from Oct. 6-13 to take part in discussions on Tibetan-consciousness. In an earlier Tibetan-consciousness gathering from Oct. 2-5 at the Dzogchen monastery, also in Kardze, a senior religious leader spoke to more than 10,000 Tibetans on the Tibetan identity. Pledges to struggle for Tibetan freedom through non-violent means were taken
9.Similar gatherings were held in eight other places during September and October, including one gathering of about 1,400 monks in Nangchen in the Yulshul (in Chinese, Yushu) Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Qinghai province.
10. The absence of acts of self-immolation, protest meetings and commercial strikes in Tibet itself should not be misconstrued to mean that the struggle for Tibetan rights, which led to a mass flare-up in 2008, is showing signs of subsiding. It has taken a different form. The presence of thousands of Tibetans---particularly Tibetan youth--- in the Tibetan-consciousness gatherings in Tibet speaks of the continuing pride of the Tibetans in their Tibetan personality, culture and religious faith.
11. The Tibetan struggle for the protection and preservation of their self-identity and their loyalty and devotion to His Holiness remain as strong as ever. What should be encouraging is that a new generation Tibetan activists, different from those who were in the vanguard of the 2008 flare-up, has emerged and is now leading the Tibetan struggle. The new generation believes in a peaceful struggle. It feels that the violence of March 2008 played into the hands of the Chinese and enabled them to use brutal force to suppress the movement.( 25-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
The unrest in the Tibetan areas of China ---Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan and Yunnan--- continues in different forms. The unrest was triggered off in March last by unhappiness among the Tibetans of Sichuan over the continued suppression of their political, religious and ethnic rights by the Chinese authorities and over their attempts to punish anyone who proclaimed his or her loyalty to His Holiness the Dalai Lama.
2.The unrest in the Tibetan areas of Sichuan has taken the form of a chain of self-immolations by young Tibetan monks of the large Kirti monastery. The Chinese authorities have not been able to stop these acts or attempted acts of self-immolation despite their removing a large number of monks of the monastery to a military detention camp euphemistically called a re-education centre and punishing those present at the time of the self-immolations on charges of abetment to suicide. They have also been forcing senior monks to come out with statements condemning self-immolations as unBuddhist and have launched a campaign against His Holiness for not condemning self-immolations.
3. Despite these suppressive measures, acts or attempted acts of self-immolation continue with nine so far. In the latest incident reported on October 17, 2011, a nun is reported to have committed self-immolation. This is the first instance of a self-immolation by a nun in the history of Tibetan Buddhism. Wamgmo, the 20-year-old nun, was from the Mamo or Dechen Choekorling Nunnery, which has about 350 nuns in Ngaba. Nuns from here had also participated in the March 2008 protest movement,
4. The same day, the Chinese police opened fire on a group of protesting Tibetans, injuring two of them. There were no fatalities. The shooting followed a protest the previous day in the Khekor township of Serthar (in Chinese, Seda) county of the Kardze (in Chinese, Ganzi) prefecture. A group of seven Tibetans protested in front of the local police station and shouted slogans calling for freedom for Tibet, the return of His Holiness from exile and the release from jail of His Holiness the Panchen Lama, chosen by the Dalai Lama in accordance with Tibetan Buddhist traditions. The Chinese have jailed him and the Communist Party of China has nominated its own Panchen Lama who has not been accepted by the Tibetans.
5.The self-immolations in Sichuan have been accompanied by protests and commercial strikes by Tibetans in the towns and villages to which those committing self-immolation belonged. The Tibetan community of Sichuan observed a day of fasting and protest on October 19 to express solidarity with the families of those who committed self-immolation. The acts of self-immolation have not so far spread to other Tibetan areas outside Sichuan.
6. However, a Tibetan-consciousness movement has been spreading right across the Tibetan belt. The objective of the movement is to enhance the consciousness of the Tibetans---particularly the youth--- about the distinct nature of the Tibetan culture as distinguished from the Han culture and to impress upon the youth the importance of preserving the Tibetan culture and maintaining their loyalty and devotion to His Holiness the Dalai Lama. The monasteries have been in the forefront of this movement.
7. As part of this Tibetan-consciousness movement, Tibetans are being encouraged to dress in typical Tibetan style, speak among themselves only in the Tibetan language, eat only Tibetan food and participate in joint prayer meetings. Reports received from Tibet and other Tibetan areas say that thousands of Tibetans---many of them youth—are participating in the peaceful gatherings organised by this movement. The Chinese authorities have till now refrained from disrupting this movement lest it lead to any violence.
8. At the Sershul monastery in the Kardze (in Chinese, Ganzi) Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of the Sichuan province, more than 20,000 Tibetan monks and others gathered from Oct. 6-13 to take part in discussions on Tibetan-consciousness. In an earlier Tibetan-consciousness gathering from Oct. 2-5 at the Dzogchen monastery, also in Kardze, a senior religious leader spoke to more than 10,000 Tibetans on the Tibetan identity. Pledges to struggle for Tibetan freedom through non-violent means were taken
9.Similar gatherings were held in eight other places during September and October, including one gathering of about 1,400 monks in Nangchen in the Yulshul (in Chinese, Yushu) Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Qinghai province.
10. The absence of acts of self-immolation, protest meetings and commercial strikes in Tibet itself should not be misconstrued to mean that the struggle for Tibetan rights, which led to a mass flare-up in 2008, is showing signs of subsiding. It has taken a different form. The presence of thousands of Tibetans---particularly Tibetan youth--- in the Tibetan-consciousness gatherings in Tibet speaks of the continuing pride of the Tibetans in their Tibetan personality, culture and religious faith.
11. The Tibetan struggle for the protection and preservation of their self-identity and their loyalty and devotion to His Holiness remain as strong as ever. What should be encouraging is that a new generation Tibetan activists, different from those who were in the vanguard of the 2008 flare-up, has emerged and is now leading the Tibetan struggle. The new generation believes in a peaceful struggle. It feels that the violence of March 2008 played into the hands of the Chinese and enabled them to use brutal force to suppress the movement.( 25-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Sunday, October 23, 2011
CHOPPER RELEASE SPEAKS WELL OF GEN.KAYANI
B.RAMAN
On October 23,2011, an Indian military helicopter with four military personnel on board strayed into Pakistani air space in the Skardu region of Gilgit-Baltistan due to bad weather.
2. According to official accounts of the Pakistani Army, the occupants of the helicopter consisted of one Lt.Col, two Majors and a junior commissioned officer. On detecting the crossing of the helicopter into Pakistani air space, planes of the Pakistani Air Force took off and made it land in the Skardu area.
3. After questioning the occupants of the copter regarding the circumstances under which it crossed over into Pakistani air space, they were allowed to take off and return to the Kargil area of India the same day within a few hours.
4. According to official accounts emanating from New Delhi, the Armies of the two countries sorted out the incident in a professional and cordial manner by using the hotline that exists between the Directors-General of Military Operations of the two countries.
5.Even though the incident was unintentional, the Pakistan Army could have played it up as having a sinister motive and detained the copter and its occupants ostensibly for long interrogation.
6. At a time when the Pakistani Army is under tremendous pressure from the US to mount operations against the sanctuaries of the Haqqani network, Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, its Chief of the Army Staff ( COAS ), could have exploited the incident to mount a PSYWAR against India in order to project as if Pakistan continued to face a military threat from India.
7. The Pakistan Army resisted that temptation, treated the incident in the low-key in which it deserved to be treated, consciously avoided dramatizing it and let the chopper and its occupants fly back to India within a few hours.
8. This speaks highly of Gen.Kayani as a military professional. His positive and cool reflexes as reflected during the incident need to be noted, acknowledged and hailed by India. The way the Pakistani military and political leadership resisted the temptation to exploit the incident for ulterior purposes needs to be highlighted and praised.
9. We do not hesitate to criticise what we see as the negative traits and reflexes of the Pakistan Army in matters relating to India. In equal measure, we should not hesitate to highlight and hail the positive traits and reflexes of the Pakistani military leadership. The manner in which the Pakistani military leadership handled the incident is worthy of high praise.
10. One is reminded that during the crisis in Indo-Pakistan relations after the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament in December,2001, Gen.Kayani was the Director-General of Military Operations in Rawalpindi. It was reported that the US was highly impressed by the cool manner in which he handled the crisis. He has shown a similar cool temperament on October 23.
11. Should the good vibrations generated by the Pakistani gesture remain an isolated act without follow-up? I don’t think so. This should be used as a starting point for setting up a more substantial military-military relationship between the armies of the two countries as a distrust-reducing measure. This is the time for us to consider inviting Gen.Kayani to visit India.
12. One should note too the commendable restraint shown by the media of the two countries in reporting on the incident. This augurs well for the future.( 24-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
On October 23,2011, an Indian military helicopter with four military personnel on board strayed into Pakistani air space in the Skardu region of Gilgit-Baltistan due to bad weather.
2. According to official accounts of the Pakistani Army, the occupants of the helicopter consisted of one Lt.Col, two Majors and a junior commissioned officer. On detecting the crossing of the helicopter into Pakistani air space, planes of the Pakistani Air Force took off and made it land in the Skardu area.
3. After questioning the occupants of the copter regarding the circumstances under which it crossed over into Pakistani air space, they were allowed to take off and return to the Kargil area of India the same day within a few hours.
4. According to official accounts emanating from New Delhi, the Armies of the two countries sorted out the incident in a professional and cordial manner by using the hotline that exists between the Directors-General of Military Operations of the two countries.
5.Even though the incident was unintentional, the Pakistan Army could have played it up as having a sinister motive and detained the copter and its occupants ostensibly for long interrogation.
6. At a time when the Pakistani Army is under tremendous pressure from the US to mount operations against the sanctuaries of the Haqqani network, Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, its Chief of the Army Staff ( COAS ), could have exploited the incident to mount a PSYWAR against India in order to project as if Pakistan continued to face a military threat from India.
7. The Pakistan Army resisted that temptation, treated the incident in the low-key in which it deserved to be treated, consciously avoided dramatizing it and let the chopper and its occupants fly back to India within a few hours.
8. This speaks highly of Gen.Kayani as a military professional. His positive and cool reflexes as reflected during the incident need to be noted, acknowledged and hailed by India. The way the Pakistani military and political leadership resisted the temptation to exploit the incident for ulterior purposes needs to be highlighted and praised.
9. We do not hesitate to criticise what we see as the negative traits and reflexes of the Pakistan Army in matters relating to India. In equal measure, we should not hesitate to highlight and hail the positive traits and reflexes of the Pakistani military leadership. The manner in which the Pakistani military leadership handled the incident is worthy of high praise.
10. One is reminded that during the crisis in Indo-Pakistan relations after the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament in December,2001, Gen.Kayani was the Director-General of Military Operations in Rawalpindi. It was reported that the US was highly impressed by the cool manner in which he handled the crisis. He has shown a similar cool temperament on October 23.
11. Should the good vibrations generated by the Pakistani gesture remain an isolated act without follow-up? I don’t think so. This should be used as a starting point for setting up a more substantial military-military relationship between the armies of the two countries as a distrust-reducing measure. This is the time for us to consider inviting Gen.Kayani to visit India.
12. One should note too the commendable restraint shown by the media of the two countries in reporting on the incident. This augurs well for the future.( 24-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Saturday, October 22, 2011
US: TIME FOR A NEW STRATEGY ON PAKISTAN
B.RAMAN
The indicators from reliable sources in Pakistan are that the just-concluded visit ( October 21,2011) of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, to Pakistan at the head of a high-power delegation including the new incumbents to the important posts of Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),David Petraeus, failed to have the necessary impact on the military as well as civilian leadership.
2. What she was expecting was a clear commitment from the Pakistani leadership with a time-bound plan of operation to neutralise the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Haqqani network, an arm of the Afghan Taliban, in the Pashtun belt in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)---particularly in North Waziristan.
3. The Pakistani civilian and military leaders were as evasive as ever and the Army headed by Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), avoided making any commitment on this issue despite cautions emanating from identified and unidentified sources in Washington regarding the likely punitive consequences of continued Pakistani inaction against the terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistani territory from which, according to the US, attacks are launched against NATO and Afghan targets in Afghan territory.
4. As the US moves towards the Presidential elections next year, the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations of the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan have been stalling on the ground. Spectacular decapitation strikes against high-value targets through pilotless Drone aircraft and commando actions such as the one that killed Osama bin Laden on May 2 last have not produced any major qualitative change in the ground situation.
5. Successful decapitation strikes need time to produce results on the ground situation. The Obama Administration wants quick results that would enable it to start thinning out the US troop presence in Afghanistan well before next-year’s elections when Mr.Obama will be seeking re-election.
6. Such quick results in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations come only from successful strikes against terrorist sanctuaries and other infrastructure on the ground through a mix of air and ground actions. Such a mix facilitated the elimination of OBL in Abbottabad, but it is difficult to repeat it against widely-scattered terrorist infrastructure.
7. The US faces a dilemma because it does not have the stomach for sustained ground operations by its forces in Pakistani territory. Any ground operation by the US forces that is confined to North Waziristan alone would not produce enduring results because the entire Pakistan---its tribal belt as well as the non-tribal hinterland--- provides a strategic depth to the Afghan Taliban, including its Haqqani network.
8. The cruel reality is that without the co-operation of the Pakistan Army, the US is not in a position to mount a successful counter-sanctuary operation in Pakistani territory. The Pakistan Army has a clear understanding of the limitations to the ground action capabilities of the US in Pakistani territory. Such limitations do not arise from Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal as it is generally presumed. They arise from the nature of the tribal belt and the vast non-tribal hinterland.
9. There are no quick answers to the operational dilemma faced by the US in Pakistan. The US has to realise that Pakistan as constituted presently will continue to keep coming in the way of the over-all strategic objectives of the US in the Af-Pak region. Unless the Pakistani capabilities are weakened, there is going to be no enduring solution to the US dilemma in Pakistan. Economic and military sanctions alone will not weaken Pakistan’s capabilities in view of the assistance that would be forthcoming to Pakistan from China and Saudi Arabia.
10. The only enduring way of weakening the capability of Pakistan is to work strategically for changing the very nature of Pakistan as it is constituted presently by identifying friendly elements in Pakistan such as the Balochs, the Mohajirs and the Shias and helping them in achieving their objective of freeing themselves from the control of the Pakistani Army.
11. These three elements have been struggling on their own, but they have not made much headway due to lack of external support and absence of strategic unity amongst them. If they can be persuaded to come together in a Southern Alliance and struggle jointly and if their political objectives are supported by the outside world---the US particularly—one may see the beginning of the process of weakening the capability of the Pakistani Army to stand in the way of peace and stability in the region.
12. The time has come for a clear realisation that Pakistan as constituted presently is the problem in the region and that unless the non-radical sections of the Pakistani society are helped to assert themselves, no enduring solution would be possible. ( 23-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
The indicators from reliable sources in Pakistan are that the just-concluded visit ( October 21,2011) of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, to Pakistan at the head of a high-power delegation including the new incumbents to the important posts of Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),David Petraeus, failed to have the necessary impact on the military as well as civilian leadership.
2. What she was expecting was a clear commitment from the Pakistani leadership with a time-bound plan of operation to neutralise the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Haqqani network, an arm of the Afghan Taliban, in the Pashtun belt in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)---particularly in North Waziristan.
3. The Pakistani civilian and military leaders were as evasive as ever and the Army headed by Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), avoided making any commitment on this issue despite cautions emanating from identified and unidentified sources in Washington regarding the likely punitive consequences of continued Pakistani inaction against the terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistani territory from which, according to the US, attacks are launched against NATO and Afghan targets in Afghan territory.
4. As the US moves towards the Presidential elections next year, the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations of the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan have been stalling on the ground. Spectacular decapitation strikes against high-value targets through pilotless Drone aircraft and commando actions such as the one that killed Osama bin Laden on May 2 last have not produced any major qualitative change in the ground situation.
5. Successful decapitation strikes need time to produce results on the ground situation. The Obama Administration wants quick results that would enable it to start thinning out the US troop presence in Afghanistan well before next-year’s elections when Mr.Obama will be seeking re-election.
6. Such quick results in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations come only from successful strikes against terrorist sanctuaries and other infrastructure on the ground through a mix of air and ground actions. Such a mix facilitated the elimination of OBL in Abbottabad, but it is difficult to repeat it against widely-scattered terrorist infrastructure.
7. The US faces a dilemma because it does not have the stomach for sustained ground operations by its forces in Pakistani territory. Any ground operation by the US forces that is confined to North Waziristan alone would not produce enduring results because the entire Pakistan---its tribal belt as well as the non-tribal hinterland--- provides a strategic depth to the Afghan Taliban, including its Haqqani network.
8. The cruel reality is that without the co-operation of the Pakistan Army, the US is not in a position to mount a successful counter-sanctuary operation in Pakistani territory. The Pakistan Army has a clear understanding of the limitations to the ground action capabilities of the US in Pakistani territory. Such limitations do not arise from Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal as it is generally presumed. They arise from the nature of the tribal belt and the vast non-tribal hinterland.
9. There are no quick answers to the operational dilemma faced by the US in Pakistan. The US has to realise that Pakistan as constituted presently will continue to keep coming in the way of the over-all strategic objectives of the US in the Af-Pak region. Unless the Pakistani capabilities are weakened, there is going to be no enduring solution to the US dilemma in Pakistan. Economic and military sanctions alone will not weaken Pakistan’s capabilities in view of the assistance that would be forthcoming to Pakistan from China and Saudi Arabia.
10. The only enduring way of weakening the capability of Pakistan is to work strategically for changing the very nature of Pakistan as it is constituted presently by identifying friendly elements in Pakistan such as the Balochs, the Mohajirs and the Shias and helping them in achieving their objective of freeing themselves from the control of the Pakistani Army.
11. These three elements have been struggling on their own, but they have not made much headway due to lack of external support and absence of strategic unity amongst them. If they can be persuaded to come together in a Southern Alliance and struggle jointly and if their political objectives are supported by the outside world---the US particularly—one may see the beginning of the process of weakening the capability of the Pakistani Army to stand in the way of peace and stability in the region.
12. The time has come for a clear realisation that Pakistan as constituted presently is the problem in the region and that unless the non-radical sections of the Pakistani society are helped to assert themselves, no enduring solution would be possible. ( 23-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Friday, October 21, 2011
LIBYA: AN OLD EVIL IS DEAD, A NEW EVIL IS BORN
B.RAMAN
No right-thinking person would shed tears over the death of Gaddafi, the Libyan dictator, but any well-informed analyst with his feet firmly on the ground would be nervous over the likely sequel to his elimination.
2.Gaddafi suppressed his people. He used brutal force against them. He funded, trained and armed many of the West Asian terrorist organisations, that claimed to be fighting for the Palestinian cause against Israel and the West. He funded and armed the Irish Republican Army to make the British bleed. Under him, the Libyan intelligence became a brutal sponsor of terrorism against the West ---particularly after the alleged death of his daughter in a US air strike in 1986 when Ronald Reagan was the US President.
3. His intelligence blew up a French civilian plane in Africa and a Pan-Am Aircraft of the US near Lockerbie in Scotland in December 1988. He partly funded Pakistan’s Islamic bomb along with Saudi Arabia and Iran. He was a menace who deserved to be eliminated.
4. Post-9/11, he gave signs of a new friendly Gaddafi on the horizon. He handed over his intelligence officers to the West for trial. He paid huge compensations to the relatives of those who died in the two explosions aboard a French and US aircraft. He kept away from Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda. After the US found out about his nuclear acquisitions with the help of Pakistan’s A.Q.Khan, he made a clean breast of his nuclear acquisitions and destroyed them to the satisfaction of the West. This merited a “Thank you” visit to Libya by the then British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
5. Gaddafi fondly hoped that these mitigating actions by him would spare him a brutal fate. They didn’t. The ideal thing would have been for the West to ensure that like Iraq’s Saddam Hussain, Gadaffi too died in the gallows after a due process of law. Instead, it let him be killed in an uncivilised manner by his enraged captors, who will be the new rulers of Libya.
6. One might blame his captors for their uncivilised behaviour, but many in the Islamic world would convince themselves that this uncivilised behaviour could have been prevented if the West had wanted to. The West wanted his death to be a grim warning to others of Gaddafi’s ilk who stood in the way of Western interests. He died in a horrible manner, but his death could haunt the West for some years to come.
7. Other nuclear aspirants like the rulers of Iran and North Korea would conclude, rightly or wrongly, that it was unwise on the part of Gaddafi to have voluntarily given by his nuclear card. The West would find Iran and North Korea even more recalcitrant on the nuclear issue.
8. There was no Al Qaeda in Iraq before the US intervention in 2003. AQ, Iraq, was born as a result of the US intervention. Its founding father Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed some years ago, but there are other trained cadres who have been keeping Iraq bleeding.
9. Gaddafi kept AQ many fathoms away from Libya,but he could not prevent angry individual Libyans from gravitating to the Af-Pak region to join AQ. Abu Faraj al-Libi, now in Guantanamao Bay, is one such example. There are other Libyan recruits in the AQ.A new AQ, Libya, to avenge the US-sponsored or at least blessed intervention in Libya will be on the cards.
10. There is an ominous aspect about Libya which was not there in Iraq. In return for the Libyan funding of Pakistan’s Islamic bomb, A.Q.Khan had trained many Libyan nuclear scientists in Pakistan’s nuclear establishments to run Libya’s nuclear infrastructure. To please the US and the UK, Gaddafi dismantled his nuclear infrastructure to their satisfaction, but the Pakistan-trained nuclear scientists are still around.AQ will look for them. ( 22-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
No right-thinking person would shed tears over the death of Gaddafi, the Libyan dictator, but any well-informed analyst with his feet firmly on the ground would be nervous over the likely sequel to his elimination.
2.Gaddafi suppressed his people. He used brutal force against them. He funded, trained and armed many of the West Asian terrorist organisations, that claimed to be fighting for the Palestinian cause against Israel and the West. He funded and armed the Irish Republican Army to make the British bleed. Under him, the Libyan intelligence became a brutal sponsor of terrorism against the West ---particularly after the alleged death of his daughter in a US air strike in 1986 when Ronald Reagan was the US President.
3. His intelligence blew up a French civilian plane in Africa and a Pan-Am Aircraft of the US near Lockerbie in Scotland in December 1988. He partly funded Pakistan’s Islamic bomb along with Saudi Arabia and Iran. He was a menace who deserved to be eliminated.
4. Post-9/11, he gave signs of a new friendly Gaddafi on the horizon. He handed over his intelligence officers to the West for trial. He paid huge compensations to the relatives of those who died in the two explosions aboard a French and US aircraft. He kept away from Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda. After the US found out about his nuclear acquisitions with the help of Pakistan’s A.Q.Khan, he made a clean breast of his nuclear acquisitions and destroyed them to the satisfaction of the West. This merited a “Thank you” visit to Libya by the then British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
5. Gaddafi fondly hoped that these mitigating actions by him would spare him a brutal fate. They didn’t. The ideal thing would have been for the West to ensure that like Iraq’s Saddam Hussain, Gadaffi too died in the gallows after a due process of law. Instead, it let him be killed in an uncivilised manner by his enraged captors, who will be the new rulers of Libya.
6. One might blame his captors for their uncivilised behaviour, but many in the Islamic world would convince themselves that this uncivilised behaviour could have been prevented if the West had wanted to. The West wanted his death to be a grim warning to others of Gaddafi’s ilk who stood in the way of Western interests. He died in a horrible manner, but his death could haunt the West for some years to come.
7. Other nuclear aspirants like the rulers of Iran and North Korea would conclude, rightly or wrongly, that it was unwise on the part of Gaddafi to have voluntarily given by his nuclear card. The West would find Iran and North Korea even more recalcitrant on the nuclear issue.
8. There was no Al Qaeda in Iraq before the US intervention in 2003. AQ, Iraq, was born as a result of the US intervention. Its founding father Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed some years ago, but there are other trained cadres who have been keeping Iraq bleeding.
9. Gaddafi kept AQ many fathoms away from Libya,but he could not prevent angry individual Libyans from gravitating to the Af-Pak region to join AQ. Abu Faraj al-Libi, now in Guantanamao Bay, is one such example. There are other Libyan recruits in the AQ.A new AQ, Libya, to avenge the US-sponsored or at least blessed intervention in Libya will be on the cards.
10. There is an ominous aspect about Libya which was not there in Iraq. In return for the Libyan funding of Pakistan’s Islamic bomb, A.Q.Khan had trained many Libyan nuclear scientists in Pakistan’s nuclear establishments to run Libya’s nuclear infrastructure. To please the US and the UK, Gaddafi dismantled his nuclear infrastructure to their satisfaction, but the Pakistan-trained nuclear scientists are still around.AQ will look for them. ( 22-10-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
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