B.RAMAN
On the eve of his forthcoming visit to India next month, President Barack Obama has made an important gesture to China. Even while supporting the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese political dissident Liu Xiaobo and calling for his release from detention, Obama has initiated what appears to be the first step towards the possible lifting of the arms embargo imposed on China after the Tiananmen Square revolt by protesting students in 1989.
2. In a letter dated October 8,2010, to the two Houses of the Congress, he has called upon the Congress to lift the ban on the sale of C-130 cargo aircraft to China. He has said that it would be in the "the national interest of the United States" to terminate the suspension. Should the proposal be accepted by the Congress, this would be the first time since 1989 that the US would be selling military-related equipment to China. In his letter, Obama said that C-130 cargo aircraft would be deployed to deal with oil spills in the sea.
3.Even if the suspension is removed, each sale has to be approved by the Congress on a case-by-case basis. The C-130 cargo aircraft - also known as the Lockheed C-130 Hercules - is a four-engine turboprop military transport aircraft designed and built in the 1950s. Capable of using improvised runways , the C-130 was originally designed as a troop, medical evacuation and cargo transport aircraft. It is used by the US-led NATO troops in Afghanistan. Before the arms embargo was imposed in 1989, the US had exported to China Black Hawk helicopters and other military-related equipment .
4.It is not clear whether Obama's letter to the Congress came in the wake of any Chinese request for the aircraft as a quid pro quo for China resuming military-military relationship with the US which was suspended earlier this year by China in protest against a proposal of the Obama Administration to sell more arms to Taiwan.
5.It is, however, significant that Obama's letter coincided with the resumption of the military-military relationship between the two countries. Mr.Robert Gates,US Defence Secretary, presently in Hanoi to attend a meeting of the Defence Ministers of the ASEAN countries and their dialogue partners convened by Vietnam, met on October 11 Liang Guanglie, his Chinese counterpart.
6.Guan Youfei, deputy director of the external affairs office of China's Ministry of Defense, told reporters in Hanoi that Gates had accepted an invitation to visit China next year. This visit was scheduled for this year,but was cancelled by Beijing because of the suspension of the military-military relations earlier this year.
7. The Chinese Defence Minister was quoted as saying that it was important for the US and China to respect and care for each other's core interests and major concerns, continuously consolidate strategic mutual trust, decrease suspicion and misjudgment, and properly settle differences and sensitive issues in order to keep bilateral military ties a developing story in a continuous and stable way. The Chinese media quoted Yuan Peng, Director of the Institute of American Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, as saying as follows:"The meeting between Liang and Gates can be viewed as the official resumption of military relations between Beijing and Washington following almost a year-long standoff. Their meeting will pave the way for the US-China Defense Consultative Talks and the re-establishment of a communication mechanism between the two countries." (12-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, October 11, 2010
NO STABILITY IN TIBET--XINJIANG WITHOUT PAKISTAN, SAYS CHINESE WRITER
B.RAMAN
An article published on October 12,2010, by the Chinese Communist Party-controlled "Global Times" has questioned the reported description of Pakistan as a cancer by President Barack Obama. It has instead described Pakistan as a pearl and highlighted the Chinese affection for Pakistan.
2. The article says: "Because Pakistan has strong defense science and technology, China feels very safe and peaceful in its frontier regions like Xinjiang and Tibet. There will be absolutely no stability in Xinjiang and Tibet without the solid brotherhood of Pakistan. Pakistan is at the crossroads of the legendary Silk Road between China and the West. I understand that Obama has his own agendas in Afghanistan. But I believe that any military policies and actions taking place in this region must serve the interests of the national security, national unity, social stability, economic development and regional cooperation among the three countries: Pakistan, China and Afghanistan."
3.The article has been written by Li Xiguang, a Professor at the Tsinghua University. Extracts from the article are annexed. (12-10-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai . E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
( "Global Times" of October 12,2010)
Sino-Pakistani links stay solid in all weathers
By Li Xiguang
US President Barack Obama was quoted recently as telling a secret meeting in the Oval Office, "We need to make clear to people that the cancer is in Pakistan."
But in the eyes of the Chinese people, Pakistan is a pearl. The Chinese people treasure the great friendship between the two countries.
In 1991, 20 years after the Pakistani army lost the war and Bangladesh, with Indian support, became an independent nation, I was on the road to Mohenjodaro and Kandarara with the late Pakistani archaeologist Husaan Dani reporting the great Pakistan civilization and its impact on China.
Almost another 20 years had passed when I went back to Pakistan early this year, where I felt overwhelmingly that many Pakistani people love China more than Chinese love their own country. Pakistan has proved to be China's closest friend and the only political and military ally to stay consistent in all weathers.
China owes its opening-up to the outside world to Pakistan.
As a leader in the Islamic world, Pakistan helped connect China to the Arab countries and the rest of the Islamic world. For example, after the Urumqi riots in 2009, Pakistani government made great efforts in explaining to the rest of the Islamic world the Chinese viewpoint on the riots.
In 1971, Pakistan helped make the arrangements for Henry Kissinger's secret visit to China and Nixon's subsequent trip.
In 1987 when I was a journalist, I reported the visit by Abdus Salam, the father of Pakistan nuclear science. During Salam's visit, he met Deng Xiaoping. During the meeting Deng Xiaoping expressed his full support of Salam's idea of strengthening the scientific and technological ties among the third world countries.
Deng told Salam that scientists from the third world countries should feel self-confident and proud in serving their own countries with their scientific achievements.
I am always proud of the Pakistani scientists' achievements. I deeply admire Pakistani scientist and engineers for their hard work and talents in developing their country's science and technology.
Like China, Pakistan is a developing country. But its people and the government give full support to its science and technology program even though people live in poverty.
Because Pakistan has strong defense science and technology, China feels very safe and peaceful in its frontier regions like Xinjiang and Tibet. There will be absolutely no stability in Xinjiang and Tibet without the solid brotherhood of Pakistan.
Pakistan is at the crossroads of the legendary Silk Road between China and the West. I understand that Obama has his own agendas in Afghanistan.
But I believe that any military policies and actions taking place in this region must serve the interests of the national security, national unity, social stability, economic development and regional cooperation among the three countries: Pakistan, China and Afghanistan.
The author is a professor at Tsinghua University and author of the coming book Intellectual dialogues of Tibet. xiguang@tsinghua.edu.cn
An article published on October 12,2010, by the Chinese Communist Party-controlled "Global Times" has questioned the reported description of Pakistan as a cancer by President Barack Obama. It has instead described Pakistan as a pearl and highlighted the Chinese affection for Pakistan.
2. The article says: "Because Pakistan has strong defense science and technology, China feels very safe and peaceful in its frontier regions like Xinjiang and Tibet. There will be absolutely no stability in Xinjiang and Tibet without the solid brotherhood of Pakistan. Pakistan is at the crossroads of the legendary Silk Road between China and the West. I understand that Obama has his own agendas in Afghanistan. But I believe that any military policies and actions taking place in this region must serve the interests of the national security, national unity, social stability, economic development and regional cooperation among the three countries: Pakistan, China and Afghanistan."
3.The article has been written by Li Xiguang, a Professor at the Tsinghua University. Extracts from the article are annexed. (12-10-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai . E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
( "Global Times" of October 12,2010)
Sino-Pakistani links stay solid in all weathers
By Li Xiguang
US President Barack Obama was quoted recently as telling a secret meeting in the Oval Office, "We need to make clear to people that the cancer is in Pakistan."
But in the eyes of the Chinese people, Pakistan is a pearl. The Chinese people treasure the great friendship between the two countries.
In 1991, 20 years after the Pakistani army lost the war and Bangladesh, with Indian support, became an independent nation, I was on the road to Mohenjodaro and Kandarara with the late Pakistani archaeologist Husaan Dani reporting the great Pakistan civilization and its impact on China.
Almost another 20 years had passed when I went back to Pakistan early this year, where I felt overwhelmingly that many Pakistani people love China more than Chinese love their own country. Pakistan has proved to be China's closest friend and the only political and military ally to stay consistent in all weathers.
China owes its opening-up to the outside world to Pakistan.
As a leader in the Islamic world, Pakistan helped connect China to the Arab countries and the rest of the Islamic world. For example, after the Urumqi riots in 2009, Pakistani government made great efforts in explaining to the rest of the Islamic world the Chinese viewpoint on the riots.
In 1971, Pakistan helped make the arrangements for Henry Kissinger's secret visit to China and Nixon's subsequent trip.
In 1987 when I was a journalist, I reported the visit by Abdus Salam, the father of Pakistan nuclear science. During Salam's visit, he met Deng Xiaoping. During the meeting Deng Xiaoping expressed his full support of Salam's idea of strengthening the scientific and technological ties among the third world countries.
Deng told Salam that scientists from the third world countries should feel self-confident and proud in serving their own countries with their scientific achievements.
I am always proud of the Pakistani scientists' achievements. I deeply admire Pakistani scientist and engineers for their hard work and talents in developing their country's science and technology.
Like China, Pakistan is a developing country. But its people and the government give full support to its science and technology program even though people live in poverty.
Because Pakistan has strong defense science and technology, China feels very safe and peaceful in its frontier regions like Xinjiang and Tibet. There will be absolutely no stability in Xinjiang and Tibet without the solid brotherhood of Pakistan.
Pakistan is at the crossroads of the legendary Silk Road between China and the West. I understand that Obama has his own agendas in Afghanistan.
But I believe that any military policies and actions taking place in this region must serve the interests of the national security, national unity, social stability, economic development and regional cooperation among the three countries: Pakistan, China and Afghanistan.
The author is a professor at Tsinghua University and author of the coming book Intellectual dialogues of Tibet. xiguang@tsinghua.edu.cn
INDIA & CHINA IN EUROPE
B.RAMAN
( Keynote speech delivered by me on October 11,2010 at the inaugural session of an international workshop on "European Common Foreign and Security Policy – Implications for India" organised by the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University)
EU-India diplomatic relations started in the early 1960s. These relations continued without a comprehensive legal and institutional framework till 1994. The Co-operation Agreement of 1994 laid the foundation for such a comprehensive framework. A comprehensive political dialogue at regular intervals since 2000 imparted a new dimension to the relations. This comprehensive political dialogue has been in the form of annual summits since 2000 and other regular meetings at the ministerial and experts levels.
2. There was value-addition in the subsequent years in the form of the concept of the EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004, the adoption of the EU-India Joint Action Plan (the 'JAP') and the decision to initiate negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement. These negotiations have not yet culminated in an agreement. The 2008 summit laid down the following four priorities for the JAP--- peace and comprehensive security, sustainable development, research and technology, and people-to-people and cultural exchanges.
3. A new addition has been the periodic EU-India Security Dialogue. Amongst the various subjects that have figured in the periodic political and security dialogues at the summit and sub-summit levels are: counter-terrorism, non-proliferation, crisis management, maritime security with special reference to co-ordinated action against Somali pirates and regional peace and security with specific reference to the developments in Afghanistan. India has not encouraged reported EU attempts to have the developments in Sri Lanka covered within the ambit of this dialogue. While there has been no attempt by the EU to have the Kashmir issue raised in the political dialogue, India was irked by attempts made by Mr.David Milliband, the former British Foreign Secretary, after the Mumbai 26/11 terrorist strikes to link the continuing use of terrorism by Pakistan against India with the so-called Kashmir dispute.
4. Under the security dialogue, India’s main interest has been in India-EU co-operation in Counter-terrorism and against Somali piracy. This interest has been reciprocated by the EU. Counter-terrorism co-operation has acquired added importance due to the role played by members of the Pakistani diaspora in Europe in assisting Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Recent reports of the plans of Al Qaeda and the so-called German Taliban to organize Mumbai-26/11 style terrorist strikes in the UK, France and Germany in protest against their role in Afghanistan have added to our concerns. Despite this, the scope for India-EU counter-terrorism co-operation has remained limited due to the following reasons:
• Firstly, India’s disappointing experience during the days of the Khalistani terrorism in Punjab. While there was good co-operation from the UK, the other EU countries----particularly Germany---- dragged their feet.
• Secondly, the electoral influence of the Pakistani diaspora in countries such as the UK inhibit their co-operation with India against Pakistan-sponsored jihadi terrorism in Indian territory.
• Thirdly, Indian intelligence and security agencies feel more comfortable interacting at the bilateral level with their counterparts in individual countries such as the UK with which they have a long history of co-operation than with their counterparts in regional organizations such as the EU. That is why progress in the implementation of past agreements on co-operation between India’s Central Bureau of Investigation and EUROPOL has been slow.
5. Counter-terrorism co-operation has many dimensions such as exchange of intelligence, mutual legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of terrorism-related cases, mutual assistance in capacity-building particularly in fields like cyber security etc .Most of the co-operation in these fields has been more with the agencies of individual EU countries than with security-related institutions set up by the EU. The EU countries played only a limited role in assisting India in dealing with the 26/11 terrorist strikes. India itself valued the co-operation of the US more than the co-operation of the EU.
6.There are traditional and non-traditional areas of co-operation. The dimensions mentioned above will come within the component of traditional areas. There is a vast non-traditional component, which has acquired importance after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US. Examples are: Strengthening homeland security, cyber security, strengthening of the security of urban transport, aviation and port security, promoting research and development in technologies having a bearing on homeland security etc.
7. While there has been some progress in India’s counter-terrorism co-operation with the US in the traditional areas, the progress in the non-traditional areas has been wanting. Suggestions made from time to time since 9/11 by security analysts, including me, for co-operation between India and the US in the research and development of homeland security technologies have not received much attention. The US is interested more in selling homeland security technologies and products to India than in jointly promoting with Indian experts research and development of such technologies. A major reason is, in the US, private firms play a large role in this matter and they want, with the support of their Government, to maintain their monopoly in this field.
8. It is these non-traditional areas that should receive the attention of India and the EU. The EU countries and their homeland security firms have no vested interest in creating and maintaining a monopoly in this matter. India and the EU should set up a Joint Counter-Terrorism Technology Development Initiative and focus on it. Traditional areas of co-operation are better left to the intelligence and security agencies of individual countries.
9. The EU launched in December 2008 an anti-piracy patrol off the coast of Somalia — its first-ever naval mission — to combat piracy . Designated Operation Atalanta, the mission, endorsed by the EU’s Defence Ministers during a meeting in Brussels the previous month, will be led by Britain, with its headquarters in Northwood, near London. After the Brussels meeting, Herve Morin, the French Defence Minister, explained the decision to launch Operation Atalanta in the following words: “ It is a great symbol of the evolution in European defence, and I would say, of its coming of age.” .
10. According to the “Daily Telegraph" of the UK,Geoffrey Van Orden, Conservative Euro-MP and Tory defence spokesman in Europe, questioned the motive behind an EU-led naval mission when EU countries were already contributing ships for NATO’s anti-piracy operations in the area. He said: "NATO is best able to mount such an operation on behalf of the UN. The EU is desperate to find military operations that it can stick its flag on in order to give credibility to its defence pretensions." The Atalanta mission, whose present term is up to December 2012, has 12 ships and patrol aircraft supplied by the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg and Greece, as well as non-EU member Norway. The Atalanta force patrols the Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin waters in conjunction with other anti-piracy missions operated by the NATO, India, Russia and China.
11 The EU is keen to enlist India’s formal endorsement and support to the Atalanta mission. This was one of the subjects reportedly discussed by Ms. Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, during her visit to New Delhi in the second fortnight of June,2010. The increase in the activities of the Somali pirates has led to a surge in anti-piracy patrols mounted by the victim countries, individually as well as collectively. Thus, we have an Indian anti-piracy patrol, a Chinese patrol, a Japanese patrol, a US patrol, a NATO patrol, an EU patrol and so on. Each patrol is concerned only with protecting commercial ships flying the flags of the countries which have launched the patrols.
12. This is only the physical security aspect of protecting maritime trade from pirates. There is a larger aspect of dealing with the evil of Somali piracy which calls for co-ordinated action on different fronts such as mutual legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of captured pirates, preventing captured pirates from returning to piracy due to the absence of legal action against them, stopping the flow of money to pirates in the form of ransom money paid for the release of captured hostages and restoration of peace and stability in Somalia without which maritime security in the region would continue to be fragile. Instead of India formally joining the Atalanta mission, it should join hands with the EU in promoting the evolution of a joint counter-piracy doctrine incorporating these aspects.
13. The launching of the Atalanta naval initiative against piracy by the EU has drawn attention to what Van Orden described as the defence pretensions of the EU. It would be more appropriate to call it the defence and security role of the EU. Following the Kosovo war in 1999, the European Council agreed that "the Union must have the capacity for autonomous action, backed by credible military forces, the means to decide to use them, and the readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises without prejudice to actions by NATO." To that end, it has been proposed to increase the EU's military capability. Under the EU’s Battlegroups initiative, each member-country is expected to be able to deploy about 1500 men quickly. EU forces have been deployed on peacekeeping missions in many areas. The Political and Security Committee of the EU, which came into existence in 2000, is projected as the "linchpin" of the European Security and Defence Policy and the Common Foreign and Security Policy. Among its responsibilities is exercising "political control and strategic direction" over EU crisis-management operations.
14. India has a long history of fruitful co-operation with the UK and France in sensitive fields. Till recently, before we turned to the US in our quest for modern military equipment and technologies, we benefited from our ability to procure military equipment from the UK and France, in addition to the USSR/Russia. The French had helped India considerably in the past in the development of our civilian nuclear capability. This came to a halt following the Safeguards imposed by the Nuclear Suppliers Group against the supply of nuclear equipment and related technologies to countries that have not signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. With the lifting of the NSG restrictions on civilian nuclear supply relationship with India, the French are in the forefront of countries keen to enter the Indian market for civilian nuclear reactors. India has benefited for many years from space-related co-operation with France.
15. In deciding what should be India’s attitude to the projected defence and security role of the EU, we should see that the wealth of mutually beneficial networking that we have established over the years in individual countries such as the UK and France is not weakened. At the same time, we should explore the possibility of using this long-standing networking with governmental and non-governmental entities in the UK and France for establishing similar networking with other EU countries individually and with EU specific institutions collectively.
16. India’s economic role in the EU is satisfactory if seen in isolation, but far from satisfactory if seen in comparison with the growing profile of China in Europe that was highlighted by the recent visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to four European countries.
17. EU-India trade doubled from €28.6 billion in 2003 to over €50 billion in 2007. EU investment in India more than tripled since 2003 from €759 million to €2.4 billion in 2006. Trade in commercial services more than doubled from €5.2 billion in 2002 to €12.2billion in 2006. The figures for 2009 were as follows:
Trade in goods
• EU goods exports to India : €27.5 billion
• EU goods imports from India : €25.4 billion
Trade in services
• EU services exports to India : €8.6 billion
• EU services imports from India : €7.4 billion
Foreign Direct Investment
• EU outward investment to India : €3.2 billion
• Indian investment to EU : €0.4 billion
18. During the first eight months of this year, China-EU trade exceeded 300 billion U.S. dollars---- a growth of 36.2 percent compared with the same period last year. The total value of India-EU trade in 2009 was about one-fourth of China-EU trade. According to China's Ministry of Commerce, 5.8 percent of Chinese overseas direct investment in 2007 was directed at Europe, behind Asia at 62.6 percent, Latin America 18.5 percent and Africa 5.9 percent, but ahead of North America at 4.3 percent. There were 252 investments by Chinese companies in Europe in the 10 years up to 2007, according to the international business consultancy firm Ernst & Young. Of these, the largest number, 101, went to the UK followed by 40 going to Germany, 24 to France and 15 to Sweden.
19. Addressing the Greek Parliament after his arrival in Athens on October 2, Prime Minister Wen said that China's commitment to advancing China-EU relations "is not an expediency, but a long-term strategic policy". He also said that China would not reduce its holdings of euro bonds and added that it supported a stable euro. He said: "We sent trade and investment promotion missions to Europe and signed a series of important trade and investment contracts. The initiatives were specific examples of China's efforts to help Europe overcome its financial difficulties.” To help Greece overcome its debt crisis, China was supporting measures taken by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and would set up special initiatives to support Greek ship owners buying vessels from China, he promised.
20. During his meeting with his Greek counterpart, George Papandreou, , Wen reportedly said China was holding Greek government bonds and would buy more to help the country recover from the financial crisis. Wen also said that China would help Greece to manage the container terminal in Piraeus, the biggest port in Greece, and increase its capacity from the present 1.6 million to 3.7 million containers by 2015. China would help upgrade Piraeus to a distributing center for Chinese exports to Europe According to the “China Daily” (October 4), COSCO, China's leading shipping giant, successfully won a container operation project for Piraeus port in 2008. Under the terms of the contract, COSCO will manage Pier II and Pier III of Piraeus Container Terminals for 35 years. The volume of containers that moved through the port between January and April increased by 43 percent compared with the same period last year, in spite of the financial crisis.
21.After the Chinese presence in the port of Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Kyaukpu in Myanmar, we are now seeing moves for a Chinese presence in the port of Piraeus in Greece. China has a strategic policy towards Europe. Its aim is to acquire a strategic presence in Europe and strategic economic links between China and the EU through measures such as increased Chinese purchase of Euro bonds.
22. India has a strategic partnership with the EU, but no strategic policy to acquire a strategic presence and role in Europe. How to acquire such a presence and role should receive attention during the discussions in this workshop. ( 11-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( Keynote speech delivered by me on October 11,2010 at the inaugural session of an international workshop on "European Common Foreign and Security Policy – Implications for India" organised by the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University)
EU-India diplomatic relations started in the early 1960s. These relations continued without a comprehensive legal and institutional framework till 1994. The Co-operation Agreement of 1994 laid the foundation for such a comprehensive framework. A comprehensive political dialogue at regular intervals since 2000 imparted a new dimension to the relations. This comprehensive political dialogue has been in the form of annual summits since 2000 and other regular meetings at the ministerial and experts levels.
2. There was value-addition in the subsequent years in the form of the concept of the EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004, the adoption of the EU-India Joint Action Plan (the 'JAP') and the decision to initiate negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement. These negotiations have not yet culminated in an agreement. The 2008 summit laid down the following four priorities for the JAP--- peace and comprehensive security, sustainable development, research and technology, and people-to-people and cultural exchanges.
3. A new addition has been the periodic EU-India Security Dialogue. Amongst the various subjects that have figured in the periodic political and security dialogues at the summit and sub-summit levels are: counter-terrorism, non-proliferation, crisis management, maritime security with special reference to co-ordinated action against Somali pirates and regional peace and security with specific reference to the developments in Afghanistan. India has not encouraged reported EU attempts to have the developments in Sri Lanka covered within the ambit of this dialogue. While there has been no attempt by the EU to have the Kashmir issue raised in the political dialogue, India was irked by attempts made by Mr.David Milliband, the former British Foreign Secretary, after the Mumbai 26/11 terrorist strikes to link the continuing use of terrorism by Pakistan against India with the so-called Kashmir dispute.
4. Under the security dialogue, India’s main interest has been in India-EU co-operation in Counter-terrorism and against Somali piracy. This interest has been reciprocated by the EU. Counter-terrorism co-operation has acquired added importance due to the role played by members of the Pakistani diaspora in Europe in assisting Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Recent reports of the plans of Al Qaeda and the so-called German Taliban to organize Mumbai-26/11 style terrorist strikes in the UK, France and Germany in protest against their role in Afghanistan have added to our concerns. Despite this, the scope for India-EU counter-terrorism co-operation has remained limited due to the following reasons:
• Firstly, India’s disappointing experience during the days of the Khalistani terrorism in Punjab. While there was good co-operation from the UK, the other EU countries----particularly Germany---- dragged their feet.
• Secondly, the electoral influence of the Pakistani diaspora in countries such as the UK inhibit their co-operation with India against Pakistan-sponsored jihadi terrorism in Indian territory.
• Thirdly, Indian intelligence and security agencies feel more comfortable interacting at the bilateral level with their counterparts in individual countries such as the UK with which they have a long history of co-operation than with their counterparts in regional organizations such as the EU. That is why progress in the implementation of past agreements on co-operation between India’s Central Bureau of Investigation and EUROPOL has been slow.
5. Counter-terrorism co-operation has many dimensions such as exchange of intelligence, mutual legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of terrorism-related cases, mutual assistance in capacity-building particularly in fields like cyber security etc .Most of the co-operation in these fields has been more with the agencies of individual EU countries than with security-related institutions set up by the EU. The EU countries played only a limited role in assisting India in dealing with the 26/11 terrorist strikes. India itself valued the co-operation of the US more than the co-operation of the EU.
6.There are traditional and non-traditional areas of co-operation. The dimensions mentioned above will come within the component of traditional areas. There is a vast non-traditional component, which has acquired importance after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US. Examples are: Strengthening homeland security, cyber security, strengthening of the security of urban transport, aviation and port security, promoting research and development in technologies having a bearing on homeland security etc.
7. While there has been some progress in India’s counter-terrorism co-operation with the US in the traditional areas, the progress in the non-traditional areas has been wanting. Suggestions made from time to time since 9/11 by security analysts, including me, for co-operation between India and the US in the research and development of homeland security technologies have not received much attention. The US is interested more in selling homeland security technologies and products to India than in jointly promoting with Indian experts research and development of such technologies. A major reason is, in the US, private firms play a large role in this matter and they want, with the support of their Government, to maintain their monopoly in this field.
8. It is these non-traditional areas that should receive the attention of India and the EU. The EU countries and their homeland security firms have no vested interest in creating and maintaining a monopoly in this matter. India and the EU should set up a Joint Counter-Terrorism Technology Development Initiative and focus on it. Traditional areas of co-operation are better left to the intelligence and security agencies of individual countries.
9. The EU launched in December 2008 an anti-piracy patrol off the coast of Somalia — its first-ever naval mission — to combat piracy . Designated Operation Atalanta, the mission, endorsed by the EU’s Defence Ministers during a meeting in Brussels the previous month, will be led by Britain, with its headquarters in Northwood, near London. After the Brussels meeting, Herve Morin, the French Defence Minister, explained the decision to launch Operation Atalanta in the following words: “ It is a great symbol of the evolution in European defence, and I would say, of its coming of age.” .
10. According to the “Daily Telegraph" of the UK,Geoffrey Van Orden, Conservative Euro-MP and Tory defence spokesman in Europe, questioned the motive behind an EU-led naval mission when EU countries were already contributing ships for NATO’s anti-piracy operations in the area. He said: "NATO is best able to mount such an operation on behalf of the UN. The EU is desperate to find military operations that it can stick its flag on in order to give credibility to its defence pretensions." The Atalanta mission, whose present term is up to December 2012, has 12 ships and patrol aircraft supplied by the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg and Greece, as well as non-EU member Norway. The Atalanta force patrols the Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin waters in conjunction with other anti-piracy missions operated by the NATO, India, Russia and China.
11 The EU is keen to enlist India’s formal endorsement and support to the Atalanta mission. This was one of the subjects reportedly discussed by Ms. Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, during her visit to New Delhi in the second fortnight of June,2010. The increase in the activities of the Somali pirates has led to a surge in anti-piracy patrols mounted by the victim countries, individually as well as collectively. Thus, we have an Indian anti-piracy patrol, a Chinese patrol, a Japanese patrol, a US patrol, a NATO patrol, an EU patrol and so on. Each patrol is concerned only with protecting commercial ships flying the flags of the countries which have launched the patrols.
12. This is only the physical security aspect of protecting maritime trade from pirates. There is a larger aspect of dealing with the evil of Somali piracy which calls for co-ordinated action on different fronts such as mutual legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of captured pirates, preventing captured pirates from returning to piracy due to the absence of legal action against them, stopping the flow of money to pirates in the form of ransom money paid for the release of captured hostages and restoration of peace and stability in Somalia without which maritime security in the region would continue to be fragile. Instead of India formally joining the Atalanta mission, it should join hands with the EU in promoting the evolution of a joint counter-piracy doctrine incorporating these aspects.
13. The launching of the Atalanta naval initiative against piracy by the EU has drawn attention to what Van Orden described as the defence pretensions of the EU. It would be more appropriate to call it the defence and security role of the EU. Following the Kosovo war in 1999, the European Council agreed that "the Union must have the capacity for autonomous action, backed by credible military forces, the means to decide to use them, and the readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises without prejudice to actions by NATO." To that end, it has been proposed to increase the EU's military capability. Under the EU’s Battlegroups initiative, each member-country is expected to be able to deploy about 1500 men quickly. EU forces have been deployed on peacekeeping missions in many areas. The Political and Security Committee of the EU, which came into existence in 2000, is projected as the "linchpin" of the European Security and Defence Policy and the Common Foreign and Security Policy. Among its responsibilities is exercising "political control and strategic direction" over EU crisis-management operations.
14. India has a long history of fruitful co-operation with the UK and France in sensitive fields. Till recently, before we turned to the US in our quest for modern military equipment and technologies, we benefited from our ability to procure military equipment from the UK and France, in addition to the USSR/Russia. The French had helped India considerably in the past in the development of our civilian nuclear capability. This came to a halt following the Safeguards imposed by the Nuclear Suppliers Group against the supply of nuclear equipment and related technologies to countries that have not signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. With the lifting of the NSG restrictions on civilian nuclear supply relationship with India, the French are in the forefront of countries keen to enter the Indian market for civilian nuclear reactors. India has benefited for many years from space-related co-operation with France.
15. In deciding what should be India’s attitude to the projected defence and security role of the EU, we should see that the wealth of mutually beneficial networking that we have established over the years in individual countries such as the UK and France is not weakened. At the same time, we should explore the possibility of using this long-standing networking with governmental and non-governmental entities in the UK and France for establishing similar networking with other EU countries individually and with EU specific institutions collectively.
16. India’s economic role in the EU is satisfactory if seen in isolation, but far from satisfactory if seen in comparison with the growing profile of China in Europe that was highlighted by the recent visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to four European countries.
17. EU-India trade doubled from €28.6 billion in 2003 to over €50 billion in 2007. EU investment in India more than tripled since 2003 from €759 million to €2.4 billion in 2006. Trade in commercial services more than doubled from €5.2 billion in 2002 to €12.2billion in 2006. The figures for 2009 were as follows:
Trade in goods
• EU goods exports to India : €27.5 billion
• EU goods imports from India : €25.4 billion
Trade in services
• EU services exports to India : €8.6 billion
• EU services imports from India : €7.4 billion
Foreign Direct Investment
• EU outward investment to India : €3.2 billion
• Indian investment to EU : €0.4 billion
18. During the first eight months of this year, China-EU trade exceeded 300 billion U.S. dollars---- a growth of 36.2 percent compared with the same period last year. The total value of India-EU trade in 2009 was about one-fourth of China-EU trade. According to China's Ministry of Commerce, 5.8 percent of Chinese overseas direct investment in 2007 was directed at Europe, behind Asia at 62.6 percent, Latin America 18.5 percent and Africa 5.9 percent, but ahead of North America at 4.3 percent. There were 252 investments by Chinese companies in Europe in the 10 years up to 2007, according to the international business consultancy firm Ernst & Young. Of these, the largest number, 101, went to the UK followed by 40 going to Germany, 24 to France and 15 to Sweden.
19. Addressing the Greek Parliament after his arrival in Athens on October 2, Prime Minister Wen said that China's commitment to advancing China-EU relations "is not an expediency, but a long-term strategic policy". He also said that China would not reduce its holdings of euro bonds and added that it supported a stable euro. He said: "We sent trade and investment promotion missions to Europe and signed a series of important trade and investment contracts. The initiatives were specific examples of China's efforts to help Europe overcome its financial difficulties.” To help Greece overcome its debt crisis, China was supporting measures taken by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and would set up special initiatives to support Greek ship owners buying vessels from China, he promised.
20. During his meeting with his Greek counterpart, George Papandreou, , Wen reportedly said China was holding Greek government bonds and would buy more to help the country recover from the financial crisis. Wen also said that China would help Greece to manage the container terminal in Piraeus, the biggest port in Greece, and increase its capacity from the present 1.6 million to 3.7 million containers by 2015. China would help upgrade Piraeus to a distributing center for Chinese exports to Europe According to the “China Daily” (October 4), COSCO, China's leading shipping giant, successfully won a container operation project for Piraeus port in 2008. Under the terms of the contract, COSCO will manage Pier II and Pier III of Piraeus Container Terminals for 35 years. The volume of containers that moved through the port between January and April increased by 43 percent compared with the same period last year, in spite of the financial crisis.
21.After the Chinese presence in the port of Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Kyaukpu in Myanmar, we are now seeing moves for a Chinese presence in the port of Piraeus in Greece. China has a strategic policy towards Europe. Its aim is to acquire a strategic presence in Europe and strategic economic links between China and the EU through measures such as increased Chinese purchase of Euro bonds.
22. India has a strategic partnership with the EU, but no strategic policy to acquire a strategic presence and role in Europe. How to acquire such a presence and role should receive attention during the discussions in this workshop. ( 11-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, October 9, 2010
CHINA: CHANGE IN CONTINUITY
B.RAMAN
( Abstract: From Wen’s comments at Shenzhen and from his subsequent interview on the CNN, many analysts have jumped to the conclusion that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are probably not on the same wavelength as regards the need for political restructuring in China and greater respect for the freedom of speech. But if one reads and analyses carefully the statements and comments made by Hu and Wen since the 17th National Congress of the Party in October 2007, it would be evident that both in their own respective style are reflecting the party line on the need for political restructuring and how to go about it. Both reflect a party consensus that the time has come to undertake changes in the political structure, but such changes should not affect the continuity of the functioning of the State and the Party. The Party will be the innovator and the driving force of the political re-structuring as it was of the economic re-structuring after 1978. The individual freedom of speech advocated by Wen will be freedom in Chinese colours. It will be a freedom to criticize constructively and not freedom to promote destabilizing dissidence. The introduction of the political reforms will be gradual just as the introduction of the economic reforms were. China’s mushrooming community of netizens---the largest in the world---- would make control over the process of political restructuring difficult, but the party leadership seems confident it can manage it. But can it? The answer to that question will determine whether China will remain politically stable or go the way of the USSR and other East European countries despite its economic miracle. Wen’s seeming outspokenness when traveling abroad, as he was in his interview to the CNN, could make conservative Chinese leaders who believe in reticence uncomfortable. But would their discomfort with Wen’s style of articulation create problems for Wen in the party? One has to wait and see )
The debate regarding the need for political re-structuring in China as a follow-up to the economic re-structuring undertaken since 1978 started during the 17th National Congress of the Communist Partry of China held at Beijing in October,2007. The report presented by President Hu Jintao, in his capacity as the Party Secretary, to the Congress contained 60 references to the expression "people's democracy". This expression also figured repeatedly in the subsequent discussion on the report.
2.The 17th National Congress was held 10 months before the Beijing Olympics of August,2008. The party was, therefore, keen to shed the image of China as an authoritarian State and to project its image as a State with a democracy in Chinese colours and not in Western colours. During the Congres, the Chinese Party leaders sought to convey to their own people and to the rest of the world that what one saw in China was not the rule of the few over the many, but the rule of the many through the few. They projected China as a State where decisions were made and power was exercised not in darkness, but in full sunshine.
3.For China's progress and stability in the future, political development was as important as economic and social development. That was what Hu sought to underline in his report. What should be the political characteristics of the Chinese State would be decided by the Chinese people through their party in accordance with their genius and experience. It would not be imposed from outside. The Chinese media quoted Yang Guangbin, Professor of the Renmin University of China. as saying: "With more individual freedom, gradual shaping of unique concept of democracy and solid forming of institutional arrangements, China-style democracy is emerging."
4.In his report, Hu drew attention to the following aspects of democracy in Chinese colours: The supremacy of the Constitution and the rule of the law, avoidance of arbitrariness in decision-making and governance, collective leadership through the party tempered by a division of individual responsibilities, democratic centralism moderated by inner party democracy, decisions based on information and intellectual support to the decision-making process, self-management, self-service, self-education and self-oversight. He emphasised that "power must be exercised in the sunshine to ensure that it is exercised correctly".
5.The key points in his report were:
• Public hearings must be held for the formulation of laws, regulations and policies that bear closely on the interests of the public.
• The most effective and extensive way for the people to be masters of the country was that they directly exercise democratic rights in accordance with the law to manage public affairs and public service programmes at the primary level, practice self-management, self-service, self-education and self-oversight, and exercise democratic oversight over cadres. Such practices must be emphasized and promoted as the groundwork for developing socialist democracy.
• The Party organizations at all levels and all Party members should act under the Constitution and laws on their own initiative and take the lead in upholding the authority of the Constitution and laws.
• The functions of the government must be separated from those of economic enterprises, matters requiring administrative examination and approval must be reduced, procedures must be standardised and Government should not intervene in microeconomic operations.
• Laws and rules of procedure should be improved to ensure that state organs exercise their powers and perform their functions within their statutory jurisdiction and in accordance with legal procedures.
• The need for continuous political re-structuring in order to improve political management.
6.It was stated during the discussion on Hu's report that while China would continue to be a one-party State, the Party should avoid any pretension of a monopoly of wisdom. Non-party intellectuals and technocrats would have an increasing role in policy-formulation and governance. One need not have to be a party member in order to be associated with the Government, but those associated with the Government---whether they were party members or not--- must accept party supervision over their functioning.
7.Liberal democracy has two important features: The right of the people to elect their leaders and to question in open the wisdom of the decisions taken by the Government. The Chinese-style democracy would not have these features. The leaders would be elected by the party cadres in accordance with party procedures. While there would be a widest possible public contribution to decision-making by the leadership, once a decision was made, its wisdom cannot be challenged. The expression of any reservations or dissent should be in the darkness of party corridors and not in open sunshine. However, it was stated that the party had decided to experiment with direct elections of Party chiefs in more than 200 townships in Chongqing, Sichuan and Hubei.
8. The debate on the need for political re-structuring and how to undertake it continued during the session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at Beijing in March 2010. Among the views expressed during the NPC session were: After successfully carrying forward and implementing the policy of economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, the time had come to think in terms of initiating a policy of political reforms to give a greater voice to the people and the media in articulating their views on the policies and performance of the Government. At a time when the Internet had registered a spectacular expansion in China and thousands of blogs provided the netizens with an opportunity to express their frank views on the problems confronting the country and the performance of the Communist Party and the Government, it looked absurd to project rubber stamp bodies such as the NPC, as the genuine voice of the people. The time had come for a genuine political restructuring of the country without damaging its political stability.
9.Among those who expressed themselves in favour of political restructuring was Prime Minister Wen Jiabao himself who told the NPC on March 5, 2010, while delivering the annual report on the work of his Government: “China's modernization drive and economic reforms could risk a failure without political restructuring. The Government would create conditions for the people to criticize and supervise the Government, and let news media fully play their oversight role so as to put the authorities under sunlight.”
10.Commenting on his remarks which did not receive outside China the attention they deserved, the Government-owned Xinhua news agency said: “Observers took the remarks as a significant signal for the nation to advance political restructuring.”
11.It quoted Professor Wang Wei of the Politics School of the Chinese Academy of Governance, as commenting as follows on Prime Minister Wen’s remarks: “Wen's statement reflected the Central Government's confidence although the nation faced a complex internal and external environment. If the Government gets carried away by achievements and thinks the system unparalleled, the nation will be thrown into danger, as the nation can hardly sustain its economic prosperity if political restructuring trails."
12.It also quoted Prof. Yu Pei, head of the World History Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as saying that advancing political restructuring would help China better address its thorny domestic concerns and bring closer the ties between the Government and the people. He added: “’If China wants to seek a bigger role in the global arena, it must grow stronger and have its economic and social problems well addressed first. In his work report to the National People's Congress Wen admitted the Government's work still fell considerably short of public expectations. Wen also admitted that the transformation of Government functions is incomplete and there is too much Government interference in the micro-economy, and public administration and services are relatively weak. Efforts should be made to focus on transforming Government functions, deepening reform of the administrative system and working hard to make the Government devoted to service.”
13.Among the envisaged political reforms mentioned by the Prime Minister were:
• The Government will earnestly deal with serious infringements on public interests related to enterprises' conversion to a stockholding system, land expropriation, housing demolition and resident relocation, environmental protection, labor disputes, and legal and litigation issues.
• It will also improve handling of public complaints.
• It will develop socialist democracy and effectively safeguard the democratic rights of people as "masters of the country."
• China will further expand primary-level democracy and strengthen primary-level self-governing bodies so that people can better participate in the management of local affairs.
• An amendment to the Electoral Law, adopted in 1953, during the session would ensure equal electoral rights between urban and rural residents.
14.The emphasis in Wen’s speech was still on China continuing as a socialist democracy. He ruled out Western-style liberal democracy. There will be greater freedom to criticize Government’s policies and performance, but not political dissidence. The criticisms should seek to improve the party and the Government and not weaken and undermine their primacy. That was the message which he sent across to the people through his statement in the NPC.
15.But in an editorial carried on March 4,2010, the party-owned “Global Times”, which seeks to project itself as more independent and objective than other party and Government-owned media, said: “On the long-winding path toward democracy, muzzled "people's representatives" would undoubtedly take the nation nowhere. China is a conventionally centralized society, where consensus seems so easy to reach, and dissenting opinions are so rare. That explains why the delegates' courage and savvy to speak the truth can play a crucial role in properly addressing the concerns of the vulnerable social groups and laying a solid foundation for a civil society. Caught in the "deep water zone" of reform, China finds itself confronted with many pressing economic, political and social problems. Past achievement can at best serve as a morale booster, though at times they may inspire solutions. While they provide a record for going forward, it is problems that demand attention. Only when the people's representatives can freely express their concerns and frankly moot suggestions can the problems be solved efficiently while social justice is delivered. Given the domestic and international scenarios of the "most complicated year," there is a particularly strong case for the authentic voices of representatives to be heard. Riding the wave of rising expectations, both at home and abroad, China can only go forward when the people's representatives are truthful and outspoken at the people's sessions.”
16. This debate was further taken forward during functions held in Shenzhen in August-September to mark the 30th anniversary of the setting up of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) under the directive of Deng. In a speech delivered by him at Shenzhen on August 21,2010, Wen, according to the Xinhua news agency, made the following points: China has to pursue political reform to safeguard its economic health."Without the safeguarding of political restructuring, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring and the targets of its modernization drive might not be reached. People's democratic rights and legitimate rights must be guaranteed. People should be mobilized and organized to deal with, in accordance with the law, state, economic, social and cultural affairs." Wen also wanted to "create conditions" to allow the people to criticize and supervise the government as a way to address "the problem of over-concentration of power with ineffective supervision."
17. In an analysis, D.S.Rajan, Director, Chennai Centre For China Studies, has underlined that the remarks of Wen identified the following "Four Musts":
* (i)both economic reforms and political system reforms must be promoted as without the latter, economic reforms will come to nothing and the modernization drive cannot be achieved,
* (ii) political system reforms must protect the democratic and legal rights of the people including in respect of managing the affairs of the State,
* (iii) the problem of over concentration of and unchecked power must be resolved at systemic levels and
* (iv) a fair and just society, judicial impartiality in particular, must be built.
18.According to Rajan, also notable has been the Premier’s warning on the occasion that “staying put and regressing will not only doom the achievements of 30-year old reforms and open door policy, but will also eventually lead to a road of perdition and suffocate the vitality of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.” Do Wen’s remarks imply a veiled criticism of those in China who, in his view, are wavering on speeding up political reforms? There is no firm answer on this count, at this juncture, says Rajan. Please see Rajan’s article of September 24 titled“ “China: Democracy With Chinese Characteristics” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers41%5Cpaper4059.html
19. Ming Xia, Professor of politics at the City University of New York, commented as follows: “Wen appears to be following in the footsteps of late reformist leader Deng Xiaoping, who used Shenzhen as a launchpad for economic reforms. Wen Jiabao probably wants to continue to use Shenzhen as a testing ground. In fact, Wen is continuing a train of thought that began with Deng Xiaoping, who always said that economic reforms should come first, and then political reforms should follow. He is using the power of Deng's words as a means of warding off the pressure being put on him by the new left and conservative forces [in the Party]."
20. In an article published on August 23, the “Global Times” commented on Wen’s speech as follows: “Wen's remarks about political reform came 30 years after the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping first raised the issue during an important speech on August 18, 1980, which was regarded as "the programmatic document for China's political restructuring.". After three decades of reform and opening-up, China is expected to overtake Japan to become the world's second largest economy this year, but the country is facing mounting pressure during its social transition including frequent attacks on vulnerable groups, aggravating pollution, serious corruption, inequality of distribution and a widening income gap. Mounting social unrests in recent years have proved costly. In 2009, the government earmarked 514 billion yuan ($76 billion) to maintain stability, much more than the 480 billion yuan for national defense.”
21. The article added:”Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, noted that the root cause of growing social conflict is the slow pace of political reform that seriously lags behind unprecedented economic reform. The consequence is problematic social development along with serious bureaucracy that hinders productivity. To prevent corruption, the authorities have adopted various new regulations in recent years such as introducing a property declaration system and monitoring of "naked officials" or those whose spouses and children moved overseas. However, they're not enough to address the growing conflicts, which pose challenges to social stability, Zhang said.”
22. It further said: “Du Daozheng, former director of the State Press and Publication Administration, said little progress was made in the past three decades and concerns about political risks and competing interests were to blame. Du argued that political restructuring wouldn't bring chaos to China because most Chinese support the current reform and opening-up policy and they expect a steady life and a government that is honest, transparent, efficient and which represents their views. He suggested that political reform should begin with pilot projects in some regions and the first step should be to create an open opinion environment inside the Party and across the country. Mao Shoulong, a professor of administrative management at Renmin University, said that we will "cross the river by touching each stone" during political reform, just like economic reform in the past 30 years, and it should be carried out under the framework of the current political system, which is dominated by the CPC. Democracy would probably be promoted at the grassroots level, especially with the election of lower-ranking officials, Mao added.”
23. The message from the article was clear: Yes, China must embark on political reforms, but they should be carried out under the leadership of the Communist Party. The measures undertaken should reform the functioning of the Government and the Party without weakening them.
24.In his speech at Shenzhen on September 6, Hu Jintao avoided the use of expressions such as political re-structuring etc. Hu’s emphasis was on Shenzhen as a trigger for the Chinese economic miracle. He said: "The Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ) created a miracle in the world's history of industrialization, urbanization and modernization, and has contributed significantly to China's opening up and reform. The central government will, as always, support the brave exploration of the special economic zone as well as its role of testing and carrying out reforms ahead of others." Hu urged the SEZs to be bold in reform and innovation in their roles as the "first movers". But Hu’s speech was not devoid of references to the political system as made out by some analysts. He said that the SEZs could experiment with reforms in economic, political, cultural and social systems.Hu called for "expanding socialist democracy" and speeding up the construction of "a socialist country under the rule of law." He said efforts should be made to carry out democratic elections, decision-making, management and supervision in order to safeguard the people's right to know, to participate, to express and to supervise.
25. In September, Wen was in New York to attend the UN General Assembly session. He was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria for CNN's Global Public Square programme. Zakaria asked him about freedom in China: "Can you be as strong and creative a nation with so many restrictions on freedom of expression, with the internet being censored?" Wen replied: "I believe freedom of speech is indispensable, for any country, a country in the course of development and a country that has become strong. Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution. I often say that we should not only let people have the freedom of speech, we more importantly must create conditions to let them criticise the work of the government. It is only when there is the supervision and critical oversight from the people that the government will be in a position to do an even better job, and employees of government departments will be the true public servants of the people."
26. From Wen’s comments at Shenzhen and from his subsequent interview on the CNN, many analysts have jumped to the conclusion that Hu and Wen are probably not on the same wavelength as regards the need for political restructuring in China and greater respect for the freedom of speech. But if one reads and analyses carefully the statements and comments made by Hu and Wen since the 17th National Congress of the Party in October 2007, it would be evident that both in their own respective style are reflecting the party line on the need for political restructuring and how to go about it. Both reflect a party consensus that the time has come to undertake changes in the political structure, but such changes should not affect the continuity of the functioning of the State and the Party. The Party will be the innovator and the driving force of the political re-structuring as it was of the economic re-structuring after 1978. The individual freedom of speech advocated by Wen will be freedom in Chinese colours. It will be a freedom to criticize constructively and not freedom to promote destabilizing dissidence. The introduction of the political reforms will be gradual just as the introduction of the economic reforms were. China’s mushrooming community of netizens---the largest in the world---- would make control over the process of political restructuring difficult, but the party leadership seems confident it can manage it. But can it? The answer to that question will determine whether China will remain politically stable or go the way of the USSR and other East European countries despite its economic miracle.
27.In conclusion, it must be underlined that Wen’s seeming outspokenness when traveling abroad, as he was in his interview to the CNN, could make conservative Chinese leaders who believe in reticence uncomfortable. But would their discomfort with Wen’s style of articulation create problems for Wen in the party? One has to wait and see.(10-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( Abstract: From Wen’s comments at Shenzhen and from his subsequent interview on the CNN, many analysts have jumped to the conclusion that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are probably not on the same wavelength as regards the need for political restructuring in China and greater respect for the freedom of speech. But if one reads and analyses carefully the statements and comments made by Hu and Wen since the 17th National Congress of the Party in October 2007, it would be evident that both in their own respective style are reflecting the party line on the need for political restructuring and how to go about it. Both reflect a party consensus that the time has come to undertake changes in the political structure, but such changes should not affect the continuity of the functioning of the State and the Party. The Party will be the innovator and the driving force of the political re-structuring as it was of the economic re-structuring after 1978. The individual freedom of speech advocated by Wen will be freedom in Chinese colours. It will be a freedom to criticize constructively and not freedom to promote destabilizing dissidence. The introduction of the political reforms will be gradual just as the introduction of the economic reforms were. China’s mushrooming community of netizens---the largest in the world---- would make control over the process of political restructuring difficult, but the party leadership seems confident it can manage it. But can it? The answer to that question will determine whether China will remain politically stable or go the way of the USSR and other East European countries despite its economic miracle. Wen’s seeming outspokenness when traveling abroad, as he was in his interview to the CNN, could make conservative Chinese leaders who believe in reticence uncomfortable. But would their discomfort with Wen’s style of articulation create problems for Wen in the party? One has to wait and see )
The debate regarding the need for political re-structuring in China as a follow-up to the economic re-structuring undertaken since 1978 started during the 17th National Congress of the Communist Partry of China held at Beijing in October,2007. The report presented by President Hu Jintao, in his capacity as the Party Secretary, to the Congress contained 60 references to the expression "people's democracy". This expression also figured repeatedly in the subsequent discussion on the report.
2.The 17th National Congress was held 10 months before the Beijing Olympics of August,2008. The party was, therefore, keen to shed the image of China as an authoritarian State and to project its image as a State with a democracy in Chinese colours and not in Western colours. During the Congres, the Chinese Party leaders sought to convey to their own people and to the rest of the world that what one saw in China was not the rule of the few over the many, but the rule of the many through the few. They projected China as a State where decisions were made and power was exercised not in darkness, but in full sunshine.
3.For China's progress and stability in the future, political development was as important as economic and social development. That was what Hu sought to underline in his report. What should be the political characteristics of the Chinese State would be decided by the Chinese people through their party in accordance with their genius and experience. It would not be imposed from outside. The Chinese media quoted Yang Guangbin, Professor of the Renmin University of China. as saying: "With more individual freedom, gradual shaping of unique concept of democracy and solid forming of institutional arrangements, China-style democracy is emerging."
4.In his report, Hu drew attention to the following aspects of democracy in Chinese colours: The supremacy of the Constitution and the rule of the law, avoidance of arbitrariness in decision-making and governance, collective leadership through the party tempered by a division of individual responsibilities, democratic centralism moderated by inner party democracy, decisions based on information and intellectual support to the decision-making process, self-management, self-service, self-education and self-oversight. He emphasised that "power must be exercised in the sunshine to ensure that it is exercised correctly".
5.The key points in his report were:
• Public hearings must be held for the formulation of laws, regulations and policies that bear closely on the interests of the public.
• The most effective and extensive way for the people to be masters of the country was that they directly exercise democratic rights in accordance with the law to manage public affairs and public service programmes at the primary level, practice self-management, self-service, self-education and self-oversight, and exercise democratic oversight over cadres. Such practices must be emphasized and promoted as the groundwork for developing socialist democracy.
• The Party organizations at all levels and all Party members should act under the Constitution and laws on their own initiative and take the lead in upholding the authority of the Constitution and laws.
• The functions of the government must be separated from those of economic enterprises, matters requiring administrative examination and approval must be reduced, procedures must be standardised and Government should not intervene in microeconomic operations.
• Laws and rules of procedure should be improved to ensure that state organs exercise their powers and perform their functions within their statutory jurisdiction and in accordance with legal procedures.
• The need for continuous political re-structuring in order to improve political management.
6.It was stated during the discussion on Hu's report that while China would continue to be a one-party State, the Party should avoid any pretension of a monopoly of wisdom. Non-party intellectuals and technocrats would have an increasing role in policy-formulation and governance. One need not have to be a party member in order to be associated with the Government, but those associated with the Government---whether they were party members or not--- must accept party supervision over their functioning.
7.Liberal democracy has two important features: The right of the people to elect their leaders and to question in open the wisdom of the decisions taken by the Government. The Chinese-style democracy would not have these features. The leaders would be elected by the party cadres in accordance with party procedures. While there would be a widest possible public contribution to decision-making by the leadership, once a decision was made, its wisdom cannot be challenged. The expression of any reservations or dissent should be in the darkness of party corridors and not in open sunshine. However, it was stated that the party had decided to experiment with direct elections of Party chiefs in more than 200 townships in Chongqing, Sichuan and Hubei.
8. The debate on the need for political re-structuring and how to undertake it continued during the session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at Beijing in March 2010. Among the views expressed during the NPC session were: After successfully carrying forward and implementing the policy of economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, the time had come to think in terms of initiating a policy of political reforms to give a greater voice to the people and the media in articulating their views on the policies and performance of the Government. At a time when the Internet had registered a spectacular expansion in China and thousands of blogs provided the netizens with an opportunity to express their frank views on the problems confronting the country and the performance of the Communist Party and the Government, it looked absurd to project rubber stamp bodies such as the NPC, as the genuine voice of the people. The time had come for a genuine political restructuring of the country without damaging its political stability.
9.Among those who expressed themselves in favour of political restructuring was Prime Minister Wen Jiabao himself who told the NPC on March 5, 2010, while delivering the annual report on the work of his Government: “China's modernization drive and economic reforms could risk a failure without political restructuring. The Government would create conditions for the people to criticize and supervise the Government, and let news media fully play their oversight role so as to put the authorities under sunlight.”
10.Commenting on his remarks which did not receive outside China the attention they deserved, the Government-owned Xinhua news agency said: “Observers took the remarks as a significant signal for the nation to advance political restructuring.”
11.It quoted Professor Wang Wei of the Politics School of the Chinese Academy of Governance, as commenting as follows on Prime Minister Wen’s remarks: “Wen's statement reflected the Central Government's confidence although the nation faced a complex internal and external environment. If the Government gets carried away by achievements and thinks the system unparalleled, the nation will be thrown into danger, as the nation can hardly sustain its economic prosperity if political restructuring trails."
12.It also quoted Prof. Yu Pei, head of the World History Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as saying that advancing political restructuring would help China better address its thorny domestic concerns and bring closer the ties between the Government and the people. He added: “’If China wants to seek a bigger role in the global arena, it must grow stronger and have its economic and social problems well addressed first. In his work report to the National People's Congress Wen admitted the Government's work still fell considerably short of public expectations. Wen also admitted that the transformation of Government functions is incomplete and there is too much Government interference in the micro-economy, and public administration and services are relatively weak. Efforts should be made to focus on transforming Government functions, deepening reform of the administrative system and working hard to make the Government devoted to service.”
13.Among the envisaged political reforms mentioned by the Prime Minister were:
• The Government will earnestly deal with serious infringements on public interests related to enterprises' conversion to a stockholding system, land expropriation, housing demolition and resident relocation, environmental protection, labor disputes, and legal and litigation issues.
• It will also improve handling of public complaints.
• It will develop socialist democracy and effectively safeguard the democratic rights of people as "masters of the country."
• China will further expand primary-level democracy and strengthen primary-level self-governing bodies so that people can better participate in the management of local affairs.
• An amendment to the Electoral Law, adopted in 1953, during the session would ensure equal electoral rights between urban and rural residents.
14.The emphasis in Wen’s speech was still on China continuing as a socialist democracy. He ruled out Western-style liberal democracy. There will be greater freedom to criticize Government’s policies and performance, but not political dissidence. The criticisms should seek to improve the party and the Government and not weaken and undermine their primacy. That was the message which he sent across to the people through his statement in the NPC.
15.But in an editorial carried on March 4,2010, the party-owned “Global Times”, which seeks to project itself as more independent and objective than other party and Government-owned media, said: “On the long-winding path toward democracy, muzzled "people's representatives" would undoubtedly take the nation nowhere. China is a conventionally centralized society, where consensus seems so easy to reach, and dissenting opinions are so rare. That explains why the delegates' courage and savvy to speak the truth can play a crucial role in properly addressing the concerns of the vulnerable social groups and laying a solid foundation for a civil society. Caught in the "deep water zone" of reform, China finds itself confronted with many pressing economic, political and social problems. Past achievement can at best serve as a morale booster, though at times they may inspire solutions. While they provide a record for going forward, it is problems that demand attention. Only when the people's representatives can freely express their concerns and frankly moot suggestions can the problems be solved efficiently while social justice is delivered. Given the domestic and international scenarios of the "most complicated year," there is a particularly strong case for the authentic voices of representatives to be heard. Riding the wave of rising expectations, both at home and abroad, China can only go forward when the people's representatives are truthful and outspoken at the people's sessions.”
16. This debate was further taken forward during functions held in Shenzhen in August-September to mark the 30th anniversary of the setting up of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) under the directive of Deng. In a speech delivered by him at Shenzhen on August 21,2010, Wen, according to the Xinhua news agency, made the following points: China has to pursue political reform to safeguard its economic health."Without the safeguarding of political restructuring, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring and the targets of its modernization drive might not be reached. People's democratic rights and legitimate rights must be guaranteed. People should be mobilized and organized to deal with, in accordance with the law, state, economic, social and cultural affairs." Wen also wanted to "create conditions" to allow the people to criticize and supervise the government as a way to address "the problem of over-concentration of power with ineffective supervision."
17. In an analysis, D.S.Rajan, Director, Chennai Centre For China Studies, has underlined that the remarks of Wen identified the following "Four Musts":
* (i)both economic reforms and political system reforms must be promoted as without the latter, economic reforms will come to nothing and the modernization drive cannot be achieved,
* (ii) political system reforms must protect the democratic and legal rights of the people including in respect of managing the affairs of the State,
* (iii) the problem of over concentration of and unchecked power must be resolved at systemic levels and
* (iv) a fair and just society, judicial impartiality in particular, must be built.
18.According to Rajan, also notable has been the Premier’s warning on the occasion that “staying put and regressing will not only doom the achievements of 30-year old reforms and open door policy, but will also eventually lead to a road of perdition and suffocate the vitality of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.” Do Wen’s remarks imply a veiled criticism of those in China who, in his view, are wavering on speeding up political reforms? There is no firm answer on this count, at this juncture, says Rajan. Please see Rajan’s article of September 24 titled“ “China: Democracy With Chinese Characteristics” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers41%5Cpaper4059.html
19. Ming Xia, Professor of politics at the City University of New York, commented as follows: “Wen appears to be following in the footsteps of late reformist leader Deng Xiaoping, who used Shenzhen as a launchpad for economic reforms. Wen Jiabao probably wants to continue to use Shenzhen as a testing ground. In fact, Wen is continuing a train of thought that began with Deng Xiaoping, who always said that economic reforms should come first, and then political reforms should follow. He is using the power of Deng's words as a means of warding off the pressure being put on him by the new left and conservative forces [in the Party]."
20. In an article published on August 23, the “Global Times” commented on Wen’s speech as follows: “Wen's remarks about political reform came 30 years after the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping first raised the issue during an important speech on August 18, 1980, which was regarded as "the programmatic document for China's political restructuring.". After three decades of reform and opening-up, China is expected to overtake Japan to become the world's second largest economy this year, but the country is facing mounting pressure during its social transition including frequent attacks on vulnerable groups, aggravating pollution, serious corruption, inequality of distribution and a widening income gap. Mounting social unrests in recent years have proved costly. In 2009, the government earmarked 514 billion yuan ($76 billion) to maintain stability, much more than the 480 billion yuan for national defense.”
21. The article added:”Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, noted that the root cause of growing social conflict is the slow pace of political reform that seriously lags behind unprecedented economic reform. The consequence is problematic social development along with serious bureaucracy that hinders productivity. To prevent corruption, the authorities have adopted various new regulations in recent years such as introducing a property declaration system and monitoring of "naked officials" or those whose spouses and children moved overseas. However, they're not enough to address the growing conflicts, which pose challenges to social stability, Zhang said.”
22. It further said: “Du Daozheng, former director of the State Press and Publication Administration, said little progress was made in the past three decades and concerns about political risks and competing interests were to blame. Du argued that political restructuring wouldn't bring chaos to China because most Chinese support the current reform and opening-up policy and they expect a steady life and a government that is honest, transparent, efficient and which represents their views. He suggested that political reform should begin with pilot projects in some regions and the first step should be to create an open opinion environment inside the Party and across the country. Mao Shoulong, a professor of administrative management at Renmin University, said that we will "cross the river by touching each stone" during political reform, just like economic reform in the past 30 years, and it should be carried out under the framework of the current political system, which is dominated by the CPC. Democracy would probably be promoted at the grassroots level, especially with the election of lower-ranking officials, Mao added.”
23. The message from the article was clear: Yes, China must embark on political reforms, but they should be carried out under the leadership of the Communist Party. The measures undertaken should reform the functioning of the Government and the Party without weakening them.
24.In his speech at Shenzhen on September 6, Hu Jintao avoided the use of expressions such as political re-structuring etc. Hu’s emphasis was on Shenzhen as a trigger for the Chinese economic miracle. He said: "The Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ) created a miracle in the world's history of industrialization, urbanization and modernization, and has contributed significantly to China's opening up and reform. The central government will, as always, support the brave exploration of the special economic zone as well as its role of testing and carrying out reforms ahead of others." Hu urged the SEZs to be bold in reform and innovation in their roles as the "first movers". But Hu’s speech was not devoid of references to the political system as made out by some analysts. He said that the SEZs could experiment with reforms in economic, political, cultural and social systems.Hu called for "expanding socialist democracy" and speeding up the construction of "a socialist country under the rule of law." He said efforts should be made to carry out democratic elections, decision-making, management and supervision in order to safeguard the people's right to know, to participate, to express and to supervise.
25. In September, Wen was in New York to attend the UN General Assembly session. He was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria for CNN's Global Public Square programme. Zakaria asked him about freedom in China: "Can you be as strong and creative a nation with so many restrictions on freedom of expression, with the internet being censored?" Wen replied: "I believe freedom of speech is indispensable, for any country, a country in the course of development and a country that has become strong. Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution. I often say that we should not only let people have the freedom of speech, we more importantly must create conditions to let them criticise the work of the government. It is only when there is the supervision and critical oversight from the people that the government will be in a position to do an even better job, and employees of government departments will be the true public servants of the people."
26. From Wen’s comments at Shenzhen and from his subsequent interview on the CNN, many analysts have jumped to the conclusion that Hu and Wen are probably not on the same wavelength as regards the need for political restructuring in China and greater respect for the freedom of speech. But if one reads and analyses carefully the statements and comments made by Hu and Wen since the 17th National Congress of the Party in October 2007, it would be evident that both in their own respective style are reflecting the party line on the need for political restructuring and how to go about it. Both reflect a party consensus that the time has come to undertake changes in the political structure, but such changes should not affect the continuity of the functioning of the State and the Party. The Party will be the innovator and the driving force of the political re-structuring as it was of the economic re-structuring after 1978. The individual freedom of speech advocated by Wen will be freedom in Chinese colours. It will be a freedom to criticize constructively and not freedom to promote destabilizing dissidence. The introduction of the political reforms will be gradual just as the introduction of the economic reforms were. China’s mushrooming community of netizens---the largest in the world---- would make control over the process of political restructuring difficult, but the party leadership seems confident it can manage it. But can it? The answer to that question will determine whether China will remain politically stable or go the way of the USSR and other East European countries despite its economic miracle.
27.In conclusion, it must be underlined that Wen’s seeming outspokenness when traveling abroad, as he was in his interview to the CNN, could make conservative Chinese leaders who believe in reticence uncomfortable. But would their discomfort with Wen’s style of articulation create problems for Wen in the party? One has to wait and see.(10-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
NOBEL PEACE PRIZE FOR CHINESE DISSIDENT COULD BE COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE
B.RAMAN
The award of the Nobel Peace Prize on October 8,2010, to the imprisoned Chinese political dissident Liu Xiaobo, the co- author of Charter 08, a pro-democracy manifesto signed by more than 300 prominent Chinese scholars, writers, and activists and published online on Dec. 10, 2008—the 60th anniversary of the U.N. Universal Declaration of Human Rights---- could be counter-productive.
2.The Charter, emulating Charter 77 issued by dissidents in Soviet-era Czechoslovakia, calls for the implementation of the guarantees of China’s Constitution and for institutions in China upholding democratic reforms, human rights, and the rule of law. It warns of national disaster in the absence of political change and makes 19 recommendations to improve human rights in China, including the establishment of an independent judiciary, freedom of association and an end to one-party rule.
3. Istead of embarrassing the Chinese political leadership, the award has made it defiant as could be seen from the writings in the Chinese media condemning the award, which is seen as politically motivated. The Communist Party-controlled "Global Times" wrote in an editorial on October 9: "The controversy in the West over Liu Xiaobo's sentence is not based on legal concerns. They are trying to impose Western values on China. Obviously, the Nobel Peace Prize this year is meant to irritate China, but it will not succeed. On the contrary, the committee disgraced itself. The award however makes it clearer that it is difficult for China to win applause from the West during China's development, and China needs to be more determined and confident in choosing its own development path, which is different from Western approach.The Nobel committee made an unwise choice, but it and the political force it represents cannot dictate China's future growth.
China's success story speaks louder than the Nobel Peace Prize."
4. The award is also seen as another attempt to humiliate China similar to the attempt made before the Beijing Olympics of August,2008, to organise a boycott of the opening ceremony of the Games as a mark of Western disapproval of alleged human rights violations in China. The boycott move failed partly because the then US President George Bush was opposed to any boycott which could be seen as a Western-inspired humiliation of China and partly because the indignant Chinese people called for a boycott of Western goods and Western departmental stores in China.
5. In an article, the same issue of the "Global Times" quotes Shi Yinhong, a Professor in the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, as saying as follows: "The Nobel committee claims to be independent, but its decision to award the peace prize to Liu strategically caters to anti-China forces.The decision is aimed at humiliating China.Such a decision will not only draw the ire of the Chinese public, but also damage the reputation of the prize. "
6. The award is badly timed because it has come in the midst of a debate in China on the need for political re-structuring as a follow-up to the economic re-structuring which the country has undergone with great benefit since Deng Xiao-ping opened up the Chinese economy in 1978. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has been in the forefront of this debate and has been increasingly articulate in calling for greater transparency in governance and greater freedom of speech which would allow constructive criticism of the way China is governed. Advocates of political re-structuring have been pointing out that ultimately the economic re-structuring would have to be followed up by political re-structuring at an opportune time when the political opening-up would not lead to political and economic instability.
7. The confidence gained by the political leadership as a result of the successful handling of the economic crisis, which had led to the closure of a large number of export industries and consequent loss of millions of jobs, has encouraged the debate on the need for taking up the task of political re-structuring envisaged by Deng himself. An article carried by the "Global Times" on August 23 pointed out: "Wen's remarks about political reform (at Shenzhen) came 30 years after the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping first raised the issue during an important speech on August 18, 1980, which was regarded as "the programmatic document for China's political restructuring."
8. Thus, the current debate on the need for political reforms is seen as nothing but the beginning of the implementation of a promise made by Deng himself in 1980. When Wen and others speak of the need for political reforms, they do not mean the winding-up of the one-party rule as fondly hoped for by human rights activists in the West, but the identification and eradication of the negative aspects of the one-party rule. When Wen talks of the need for freedom of speech , he means freedom to constructively criticise Government policies and working instead of having to implicitly support them. How to have public accountability under a one-party rule? That is one of the questions being posed during this debate.
9. It would have been in the interest of the West to let this debate develop and result in a genuine re-structuring of the political set-up in China. Instead, by giving the award to a dissident who has only limited following inside China and calling for political reforms, the Nobel Committee and those supporting its award would only strengthen the hands of those who are opposing any political restructuring of the Chinese set-up.
10. The Chinese leadership and people are fearful of any instability which could wipe out the considerable economic gains made by the country since 1978. The decision of the Nobel Committee to honour the dissident at a time of transition in China from economic to political re-structuring could rekindle fears of an externally-inspired attempt to destabilise the country. The ultimate losers will be the advocates of political re-structuring. ( 9-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The award of the Nobel Peace Prize on October 8,2010, to the imprisoned Chinese political dissident Liu Xiaobo, the co- author of Charter 08, a pro-democracy manifesto signed by more than 300 prominent Chinese scholars, writers, and activists and published online on Dec. 10, 2008—the 60th anniversary of the U.N. Universal Declaration of Human Rights---- could be counter-productive.
2.The Charter, emulating Charter 77 issued by dissidents in Soviet-era Czechoslovakia, calls for the implementation of the guarantees of China’s Constitution and for institutions in China upholding democratic reforms, human rights, and the rule of law. It warns of national disaster in the absence of political change and makes 19 recommendations to improve human rights in China, including the establishment of an independent judiciary, freedom of association and an end to one-party rule.
3. Istead of embarrassing the Chinese political leadership, the award has made it defiant as could be seen from the writings in the Chinese media condemning the award, which is seen as politically motivated. The Communist Party-controlled "Global Times" wrote in an editorial on October 9: "The controversy in the West over Liu Xiaobo's sentence is not based on legal concerns. They are trying to impose Western values on China. Obviously, the Nobel Peace Prize this year is meant to irritate China, but it will not succeed. On the contrary, the committee disgraced itself. The award however makes it clearer that it is difficult for China to win applause from the West during China's development, and China needs to be more determined and confident in choosing its own development path, which is different from Western approach.The Nobel committee made an unwise choice, but it and the political force it represents cannot dictate China's future growth.
China's success story speaks louder than the Nobel Peace Prize."
4. The award is also seen as another attempt to humiliate China similar to the attempt made before the Beijing Olympics of August,2008, to organise a boycott of the opening ceremony of the Games as a mark of Western disapproval of alleged human rights violations in China. The boycott move failed partly because the then US President George Bush was opposed to any boycott which could be seen as a Western-inspired humiliation of China and partly because the indignant Chinese people called for a boycott of Western goods and Western departmental stores in China.
5. In an article, the same issue of the "Global Times" quotes Shi Yinhong, a Professor in the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, as saying as follows: "The Nobel committee claims to be independent, but its decision to award the peace prize to Liu strategically caters to anti-China forces.The decision is aimed at humiliating China.Such a decision will not only draw the ire of the Chinese public, but also damage the reputation of the prize. "
6. The award is badly timed because it has come in the midst of a debate in China on the need for political re-structuring as a follow-up to the economic re-structuring which the country has undergone with great benefit since Deng Xiao-ping opened up the Chinese economy in 1978. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has been in the forefront of this debate and has been increasingly articulate in calling for greater transparency in governance and greater freedom of speech which would allow constructive criticism of the way China is governed. Advocates of political re-structuring have been pointing out that ultimately the economic re-structuring would have to be followed up by political re-structuring at an opportune time when the political opening-up would not lead to political and economic instability.
7. The confidence gained by the political leadership as a result of the successful handling of the economic crisis, which had led to the closure of a large number of export industries and consequent loss of millions of jobs, has encouraged the debate on the need for taking up the task of political re-structuring envisaged by Deng himself. An article carried by the "Global Times" on August 23 pointed out: "Wen's remarks about political reform (at Shenzhen) came 30 years after the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping first raised the issue during an important speech on August 18, 1980, which was regarded as "the programmatic document for China's political restructuring."
8. Thus, the current debate on the need for political reforms is seen as nothing but the beginning of the implementation of a promise made by Deng himself in 1980. When Wen and others speak of the need for political reforms, they do not mean the winding-up of the one-party rule as fondly hoped for by human rights activists in the West, but the identification and eradication of the negative aspects of the one-party rule. When Wen talks of the need for freedom of speech , he means freedom to constructively criticise Government policies and working instead of having to implicitly support them. How to have public accountability under a one-party rule? That is one of the questions being posed during this debate.
9. It would have been in the interest of the West to let this debate develop and result in a genuine re-structuring of the political set-up in China. Instead, by giving the award to a dissident who has only limited following inside China and calling for political reforms, the Nobel Committee and those supporting its award would only strengthen the hands of those who are opposing any political restructuring of the Chinese set-up.
10. The Chinese leadership and people are fearful of any instability which could wipe out the considerable economic gains made by the country since 1978. The decision of the Nobel Committee to honour the dissident at a time of transition in China from economic to political re-structuring could rekindle fears of an externally-inspired attempt to destabilise the country. The ultimate losers will be the advocates of political re-structuring. ( 9-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, October 8, 2010
H.S. CHITTARANJAN, INDIAN POLICE SERVICE ( RETIRED)
)
6-1-1937--5-10-2010
( This is based on my funeral address at the church services for H.S.Chittaranjan IPS (retired) held at the St.Andrews Kirk Church, Egmore, Chennai, on October 7,2010)
I called on Chittus as Chittaranjan was affectionately known to his friends at the Apollo Specialities Hospital on September 22. He was very weak. He had difficulty in speaking. He kept his eyes closed, but he was very alert. He closely followed my conversation with his elder son Peter and made brief comments now and then. After 30 minutes, I got up to take leave of him. He took out his right hand from under the blanket with which he had covered himself and extended it towards me. I grasped it and shook it. I did not realise at that time that was to be my last hand-shake with him.
His hand was as firm as it had always been. It was as warm as it had always been. As I came out of the room, I told myself: " Chittus has always been a great fighter. He will pull through."
Yes, he was always a valiant fighter and prevailed ---- whether the fight was against the Chinese or Pakistani intruders or against the insurgents or terrorists or the law-breakers.
After completing his training at the Central Police Training College, Mount Abu, Rajasthan, in October 1962, he reported for duty in Assam a few days after the invading Chinese troops had occupied Bomdila. His first task as a young police officer was to counter Chinese subversion in Assam and to keep up the morale of the people. His second was to counter Pakistani subversion from the then East Pakistan.
Assam was the most troubled State in India when Chittus reported for duty there. Jammu & Kashmir was a comparatively peaceful State. He was called upon to deal with a welter of insurgencies by sections of the Nagas, Mizos and Assamese and Pakistani support to them. He fought with great courage against all the evils and threats to national security. Invariably, he prevailed over evil.
In recognition of his achievements, he was awarded the Indian Police Medal in 1973 within 11 years of his joining the State. This was a remarkable record. Officers normally took 15 years to win this Medal. He won the President's Medal in 1987.
All diseases are treacherous. Cancer is the most treacherous of all. It strikes when you least expect it. It takes you by surprise. During his 33 years of service in the Indian Police, Chittus had never allowed himself to be taken by surprise by any evil force.
But, in December 2009, 14 years after he had retired as the Director-General of Police of Assam in January,1995, he was taken by surprise for the first time in his life. By the dreaded disease called cancer.
He fought as valiantly against cancer as he had fought against the Chinese and Pakistanis and the insurgencies and terrorism backed by them. Having known what a determined fighter Chittus was I had no doubt in my mind that he would come out victorious in this fight too. But God seems to have willed otherwise.
I met Chittus for the first time on the platform of the Old Delhi railway station in the first week of June,1961, as we were traveling from Chennai to Dehradun for training. We were not only batch-mates, but also room-mates. We shared the same room in one of the messes of the National Academy of Administration at Mussorree. Batch-mates build strong bonds among themselves. Room-mates even more so.Chittus and I developed a special friendship and affection for each other.
He was newly-married to Patsy, his wife, when he joined the Academy. Till late in the night, he would be sitting on his bed resting his back against the wall and writing letters to his wife, friends and relatives. He was a prolific letter-writer. He would reply to each and every letter that he received---even if it be from strangers.
Chittus and I were outdoor types. We loved long walks and treks. We always walked together in Kulri in Mussorree. Chittus, the late C.K.Gajananan, another batch-mate, who died young while still in service, and I used to go for treks in the woods of Mussorree almost every Sunday. We used to trek even in pouring rain. We would lift our trousers when we returned to the mess at the end of a long trek in pouring rain. We would find dozens of leeches sticking to our legs and blood oozing out. We would remove them by washing our legs with salt water. On the first occasion, it was a frightening and disgusting sight. We got used to it subsequently.
We kept our outdoor interests even in the Central Police Training College in Mount Abu. We were not room-mates in Mount Abu, but maintained our close bonds that we had built up at Mussorree. Chittus, Gajananan and I developed a new hobby at Mount Abu---- riding in the forests on the hills after dinner on Saturday nights. Even the horses used to be afraid of going out into the forests past midnight, but we were not.
I used to tell Chittus: "One day we are going to end in the stomach of either a panther or a python." We didn't, but Chittus ended in the death-trap of even a worse animal called cancer. God seems to have willed it that way.
Chittus was an outstanding officer, a person of legendary personal integrity, a devoted friend, a loyal batch-mate and an enthusiastic sportsman. He captained the cricket team of the Central Police Training College. He retained his lively interest in cricket even during his painful illness.
What a distinguished record Chittus had !. He was the youngest police officer to have become a Superintendent of Police, and then a Deputy Inspector-General of Police and then an Inspector-General of Police and then the DG of Police of Meghalaya. He had a vast knowledge of insurgencies in the North-East having dealt with them for most of his career. Whenever he came to Delhi from Assam to attend conferences, he would find the time to drop in at my house and look up my ailing mother.
More than an outstanding officer, he was a wonderful human being. We must grieve for him, but we should not allow our grief to come in the way of our moving forward.
Let us all keep moving forward. That is what God would expect of us. That is what Chittus would have himself wanted.
Chittus had a booming voice and a booming laughter.When he spoke or laughed the whole neighbourhood could hear. I am sure he would be keeping God and His angels laughing in heaven and preventing them from sleeping with his booming voice.
6-1-1937--5-10-2010
( This is based on my funeral address at the church services for H.S.Chittaranjan IPS (retired) held at the St.Andrews Kirk Church, Egmore, Chennai, on October 7,2010)
I called on Chittus as Chittaranjan was affectionately known to his friends at the Apollo Specialities Hospital on September 22. He was very weak. He had difficulty in speaking. He kept his eyes closed, but he was very alert. He closely followed my conversation with his elder son Peter and made brief comments now and then. After 30 minutes, I got up to take leave of him. He took out his right hand from under the blanket with which he had covered himself and extended it towards me. I grasped it and shook it. I did not realise at that time that was to be my last hand-shake with him.
His hand was as firm as it had always been. It was as warm as it had always been. As I came out of the room, I told myself: " Chittus has always been a great fighter. He will pull through."
Yes, he was always a valiant fighter and prevailed ---- whether the fight was against the Chinese or Pakistani intruders or against the insurgents or terrorists or the law-breakers.
After completing his training at the Central Police Training College, Mount Abu, Rajasthan, in October 1962, he reported for duty in Assam a few days after the invading Chinese troops had occupied Bomdila. His first task as a young police officer was to counter Chinese subversion in Assam and to keep up the morale of the people. His second was to counter Pakistani subversion from the then East Pakistan.
Assam was the most troubled State in India when Chittus reported for duty there. Jammu & Kashmir was a comparatively peaceful State. He was called upon to deal with a welter of insurgencies by sections of the Nagas, Mizos and Assamese and Pakistani support to them. He fought with great courage against all the evils and threats to national security. Invariably, he prevailed over evil.
In recognition of his achievements, he was awarded the Indian Police Medal in 1973 within 11 years of his joining the State. This was a remarkable record. Officers normally took 15 years to win this Medal. He won the President's Medal in 1987.
All diseases are treacherous. Cancer is the most treacherous of all. It strikes when you least expect it. It takes you by surprise. During his 33 years of service in the Indian Police, Chittus had never allowed himself to be taken by surprise by any evil force.
But, in December 2009, 14 years after he had retired as the Director-General of Police of Assam in January,1995, he was taken by surprise for the first time in his life. By the dreaded disease called cancer.
He fought as valiantly against cancer as he had fought against the Chinese and Pakistanis and the insurgencies and terrorism backed by them. Having known what a determined fighter Chittus was I had no doubt in my mind that he would come out victorious in this fight too. But God seems to have willed otherwise.
I met Chittus for the first time on the platform of the Old Delhi railway station in the first week of June,1961, as we were traveling from Chennai to Dehradun for training. We were not only batch-mates, but also room-mates. We shared the same room in one of the messes of the National Academy of Administration at Mussorree. Batch-mates build strong bonds among themselves. Room-mates even more so.Chittus and I developed a special friendship and affection for each other.
He was newly-married to Patsy, his wife, when he joined the Academy. Till late in the night, he would be sitting on his bed resting his back against the wall and writing letters to his wife, friends and relatives. He was a prolific letter-writer. He would reply to each and every letter that he received---even if it be from strangers.
Chittus and I were outdoor types. We loved long walks and treks. We always walked together in Kulri in Mussorree. Chittus, the late C.K.Gajananan, another batch-mate, who died young while still in service, and I used to go for treks in the woods of Mussorree almost every Sunday. We used to trek even in pouring rain. We would lift our trousers when we returned to the mess at the end of a long trek in pouring rain. We would find dozens of leeches sticking to our legs and blood oozing out. We would remove them by washing our legs with salt water. On the first occasion, it was a frightening and disgusting sight. We got used to it subsequently.
We kept our outdoor interests even in the Central Police Training College in Mount Abu. We were not room-mates in Mount Abu, but maintained our close bonds that we had built up at Mussorree. Chittus, Gajananan and I developed a new hobby at Mount Abu---- riding in the forests on the hills after dinner on Saturday nights. Even the horses used to be afraid of going out into the forests past midnight, but we were not.
I used to tell Chittus: "One day we are going to end in the stomach of either a panther or a python." We didn't, but Chittus ended in the death-trap of even a worse animal called cancer. God seems to have willed it that way.
Chittus was an outstanding officer, a person of legendary personal integrity, a devoted friend, a loyal batch-mate and an enthusiastic sportsman. He captained the cricket team of the Central Police Training College. He retained his lively interest in cricket even during his painful illness.
What a distinguished record Chittus had !. He was the youngest police officer to have become a Superintendent of Police, and then a Deputy Inspector-General of Police and then an Inspector-General of Police and then the DG of Police of Meghalaya. He had a vast knowledge of insurgencies in the North-East having dealt with them for most of his career. Whenever he came to Delhi from Assam to attend conferences, he would find the time to drop in at my house and look up my ailing mother.
More than an outstanding officer, he was a wonderful human being. We must grieve for him, but we should not allow our grief to come in the way of our moving forward.
Let us all keep moving forward. That is what God would expect of us. That is what Chittus would have himself wanted.
Chittus had a booming voice and a booming laughter.When he spoke or laughed the whole neighbourhood could hear. I am sure he would be keeping God and His angels laughing in heaven and preventing them from sleeping with his booming voice.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
AL QAEDA---TALIBAN IN EUROPE
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO. 684
B.RAMAN
After the Arabs and the Pakistanis, the Uzbeks have come to the forefront of Al Qaeda-inspired global jihad.
---- From my article of September 6,2007, titled “Global Jihad: Uzbeks To The Fore - International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 273” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers24%5Cpaper2360.html
---------------------------------------------------
On August 15,2007, the Pakistani authorities handed over to Germany Tolga Durbin, a German citizen of Turkish origin, who belonged to the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), an Uzbek terrorist organization, which claimed to represent the Muslims of the world and not merely the Uzbeks. It was closely aligned with Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban and drew its recruits from the non-Arab sections of the Islamic world, particularly the Uzbeks, the Turks who are ethnically close to the Uzbeks and European white converts to Islam.
2.After interrogating him, the German Police arrested on September 4, 2007, Fritz Martin Gelowicz, 28, a German convert to Islam, Daniel Martin Schneider, 21, another German convert to Islam, and Adem Yilmaz, 29 of Turkish origin on charges of their being members of the IJU. A fourth person Gofir Salimov, an Uzbek, who was also suspected to be a member of the IJU, managed to flee Germany before he could be arrested. The German authorities claimed that the arrested persons, who were led by Gelowicz, were planning to attack with massive car bombs the Ramstein military airbase, about 140 km South-West of Frankfurt, and the Frankfurt airport. The Ramstein airbase is the largest base used by the US army in Europe. The investigation brought out the name of another member of the IJU in Germany Attila Selek, also known as Muaz. He was also arrested.
3.It was reported that the objective of the planned attack on the Ramstein base was to force Germany to close down its air base in Termez, Uzbekistan, which was providing logistic support for some 3,000 German soldiers serving in the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. During the searches undertaken by the German Police after the arrest of the four persons, they recovered a 35% solution of hydrogen peroxide, stored in a hideout, which could have been converted into an explosive device and 26 military detonators smuggled from Istanbul to Germany. The police filed a charge-sheet against the arrested persons on September 2,2008.
4. During the trial, Gelowicz and the three other defendants admitted that they were members of the IJU and that their planned attack, which could not be carried out due to their arrests before their plans could make progress, was timed to coincide with a vote in the German parliament on extending the country's military presence in Afghanistan. In their testimonies they also said that they went to Pakistan in 2006 to undergo training in a camp of the IJU.
5. All the four were found guilty by a Dusseldorf court on March 5,2010. Fritz Gelowicz and Daniel Schneider, the two German converts to Islam, were jailed for 12 years each and the two Germans of Turkish origin, Adem Yilmaz and Aytila Selek, received 11-year and five-year prison terms respectively.
6. During the investigation of this case, the German Police reportedly found that Eric Breininger, another white convert to Islam who changed his name after conversion as Abdul Ghafar, had escaped to Pakistan via Egypt and Iran and was operating from a camp of the IJU in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He was born in Neunkirchen in the Saarland region of Germany, in 1987. His parents divorced when he was a child. In 2006, he met some members of the IJU and embraced Islam. On May 23,2008, a web site associated with the IJU posted a video interview with Eric Breininger in which he warned that "Germany - along with every other nation taking part in the occupation of Afghanistan - should expect attacks by Muslims". On September 25, 2008, the German Police issued a look-out notice for Eric Breininger, and Houssain Al Malla, who were wanted for trial in the Ramstein plot case. On October 21,2008, another video message of Breininger was posted by the IJU in which he denied any plans for a terrorist attack in Germany. Elif Medya, a Turkish-language jihadi media outlet, released a video on September 11, 2009, showing Ramadan donations being given to the German and Turkish members of the IJU in which Breininger was shown along with another person who was described as the Turkish jihadi commander Abu Zarr (Ebu Zarr). It was stated that Abu Zarr had traveled from Chechnya to Afghanistan/Pakistan. On April 15, 2010, in another video message Breininger claimed that the “German Taliban Mujahideen” had carried out an attack against an American base in Paktika, East Afghanistan, between Kabul and Kandahar. He described it as the first operation of the German Taliban in Afghanistan. Subsequently, the Pakistani authorities claimed to have killed him in an encounter on April 30,2010.
7. While the Dusseldorf trial was on, the German Police arrested in February,2010, two persons of immigrant origin with German passports, one of whom, a woman, was described by the media as the wife of Gelowicz on a charge of collecting money for the IJU from the Muslim community in Germany and sending it to the IJU through an intermediary in Turkey. They said a third person of immigrant origin wanted in this case was absconding. The police did not give the full names of the three persons. They were merely identified as 21-year-old Alican T, 31-year-old Fatih K, and a woman, 28-year-old Filiz G. They were charged in a local court in August,2010, with supporting the IJU and an organization described as the German Taliban. They were also accused of recruiting members for Al Qaeda and spreading propaganda material online.
8. In July 2010, Ahmed Sidiqi, a German citizen of Afghan origin who had disappeared from Hamburg along with 11 other Muslims including his Indonesian wife in 2009, was arrested by a group of plain-clothed US soldiers in Kabul while he was going to the German embassy. Sidiqi went to Germany from Afghanistan in the early 1990s. He became a naturalised German citizen in 2001. He worked at Hamburg's airport as a cleaner. In March,2009, he and his wife flew to Peshawar, where they joined 10 others including a German of Syrian descent, Rami Makanesi, a German of Iranian origin, Shahab Dashti and Naamen Meziche, a French citizen of Algerian origin. According to the German news magazine Der Spiegel, Sidiqi told his US interrogators that after receiving training in Pakistan, he fought in Afghanistan and met Said Bahaji, who is wanted for involvement in 9/11. Sidiqi reportedly moved to Mir Ali, a border town in North Waziristan where he met Sheikh Younis al-Mauretani, who Sidiqi said had become Al Qaeda's third most senior leader. The Sheikh told him about plans for a series of attacks in several European countries, including the UK, Germany and France, according to Der Spiegel. Sidiqi claimed that Osama bin Laden had approved the plot and also provided some funding.
9. The claims made by Sidiqi seem to have triggered concerns in US and European security agencies about the likelihood of Mumbai-26/11 style terrorist strikes in the UK, France and Germany involving commando style attacks with mixed modus operandi combining the use of hand-held weapons and explosives. The objective will be to punish EU countries playing a prominent role in the operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Madrid terrorist strikes of March 2004 and the London terrorist strikes of July 2005 were directed against the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. The terrorist strikes planned now would seek to punish the West for its involvement in Afghanistan.
10 In the Madrid strikes, North African members of Al Qaeda played an active role. Pakistani suicide bombers played an active role in the London blasts. It is likely that a mix of jihadis of Pakistani (in UK), North African (in France) and Uzbek and Turkish origin (in Germany) could play a role in the Afghanistan-focused terrorist strikes now being planned. One found an Afghanistan focus even in the Mumbai—26/11 terrorist strikes by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) since many of the foreigners killed came from countries whose troops were fighting in Afghanistan.
11. Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban are looking for an Afghanistan-focused operation in Europe, but there are no indications that trained persons for such an operation might have already been dispatched to Europe. The current Drone strikes in North and South Waziristan, in which some persons of German origin had been killed, are intended to pre-empt any new terrorist strikes in Europe by killing those trained or being trained for this purpose before they could be dispatched to Europe. The security alerts and travel advisories issued by the US and others indicate that despite the success of the Drone strikes, there is a fear that some trained jihadis might have already reached Europe. Ziercke, the head of Germany's Federal Office of Criminal Investigation, reportedly said in a recent interview with the Berlin newspaper Der Tagesspiegel that there was evidence that at least 70 Islamic radicals from Germany had undergone military training in Pakistan, and that 40 of them are believed to have gone on to fight coalition forces in Afghanistan ( 6-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
After the Arabs and the Pakistanis, the Uzbeks have come to the forefront of Al Qaeda-inspired global jihad.
---- From my article of September 6,2007, titled “Global Jihad: Uzbeks To The Fore - International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 273” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers24%5Cpaper2360.html
---------------------------------------------------
On August 15,2007, the Pakistani authorities handed over to Germany Tolga Durbin, a German citizen of Turkish origin, who belonged to the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), an Uzbek terrorist organization, which claimed to represent the Muslims of the world and not merely the Uzbeks. It was closely aligned with Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban and drew its recruits from the non-Arab sections of the Islamic world, particularly the Uzbeks, the Turks who are ethnically close to the Uzbeks and European white converts to Islam.
2.After interrogating him, the German Police arrested on September 4, 2007, Fritz Martin Gelowicz, 28, a German convert to Islam, Daniel Martin Schneider, 21, another German convert to Islam, and Adem Yilmaz, 29 of Turkish origin on charges of their being members of the IJU. A fourth person Gofir Salimov, an Uzbek, who was also suspected to be a member of the IJU, managed to flee Germany before he could be arrested. The German authorities claimed that the arrested persons, who were led by Gelowicz, were planning to attack with massive car bombs the Ramstein military airbase, about 140 km South-West of Frankfurt, and the Frankfurt airport. The Ramstein airbase is the largest base used by the US army in Europe. The investigation brought out the name of another member of the IJU in Germany Attila Selek, also known as Muaz. He was also arrested.
3.It was reported that the objective of the planned attack on the Ramstein base was to force Germany to close down its air base in Termez, Uzbekistan, which was providing logistic support for some 3,000 German soldiers serving in the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. During the searches undertaken by the German Police after the arrest of the four persons, they recovered a 35% solution of hydrogen peroxide, stored in a hideout, which could have been converted into an explosive device and 26 military detonators smuggled from Istanbul to Germany. The police filed a charge-sheet against the arrested persons on September 2,2008.
4. During the trial, Gelowicz and the three other defendants admitted that they were members of the IJU and that their planned attack, which could not be carried out due to their arrests before their plans could make progress, was timed to coincide with a vote in the German parliament on extending the country's military presence in Afghanistan. In their testimonies they also said that they went to Pakistan in 2006 to undergo training in a camp of the IJU.
5. All the four were found guilty by a Dusseldorf court on March 5,2010. Fritz Gelowicz and Daniel Schneider, the two German converts to Islam, were jailed for 12 years each and the two Germans of Turkish origin, Adem Yilmaz and Aytila Selek, received 11-year and five-year prison terms respectively.
6. During the investigation of this case, the German Police reportedly found that Eric Breininger, another white convert to Islam who changed his name after conversion as Abdul Ghafar, had escaped to Pakistan via Egypt and Iran and was operating from a camp of the IJU in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He was born in Neunkirchen in the Saarland region of Germany, in 1987. His parents divorced when he was a child. In 2006, he met some members of the IJU and embraced Islam. On May 23,2008, a web site associated with the IJU posted a video interview with Eric Breininger in which he warned that "Germany - along with every other nation taking part in the occupation of Afghanistan - should expect attacks by Muslims". On September 25, 2008, the German Police issued a look-out notice for Eric Breininger, and Houssain Al Malla, who were wanted for trial in the Ramstein plot case. On October 21,2008, another video message of Breininger was posted by the IJU in which he denied any plans for a terrorist attack in Germany. Elif Medya, a Turkish-language jihadi media outlet, released a video on September 11, 2009, showing Ramadan donations being given to the German and Turkish members of the IJU in which Breininger was shown along with another person who was described as the Turkish jihadi commander Abu Zarr (Ebu Zarr). It was stated that Abu Zarr had traveled from Chechnya to Afghanistan/Pakistan. On April 15, 2010, in another video message Breininger claimed that the “German Taliban Mujahideen” had carried out an attack against an American base in Paktika, East Afghanistan, between Kabul and Kandahar. He described it as the first operation of the German Taliban in Afghanistan. Subsequently, the Pakistani authorities claimed to have killed him in an encounter on April 30,2010.
7. While the Dusseldorf trial was on, the German Police arrested in February,2010, two persons of immigrant origin with German passports, one of whom, a woman, was described by the media as the wife of Gelowicz on a charge of collecting money for the IJU from the Muslim community in Germany and sending it to the IJU through an intermediary in Turkey. They said a third person of immigrant origin wanted in this case was absconding. The police did not give the full names of the three persons. They were merely identified as 21-year-old Alican T, 31-year-old Fatih K, and a woman, 28-year-old Filiz G. They were charged in a local court in August,2010, with supporting the IJU and an organization described as the German Taliban. They were also accused of recruiting members for Al Qaeda and spreading propaganda material online.
8. In July 2010, Ahmed Sidiqi, a German citizen of Afghan origin who had disappeared from Hamburg along with 11 other Muslims including his Indonesian wife in 2009, was arrested by a group of plain-clothed US soldiers in Kabul while he was going to the German embassy. Sidiqi went to Germany from Afghanistan in the early 1990s. He became a naturalised German citizen in 2001. He worked at Hamburg's airport as a cleaner. In March,2009, he and his wife flew to Peshawar, where they joined 10 others including a German of Syrian descent, Rami Makanesi, a German of Iranian origin, Shahab Dashti and Naamen Meziche, a French citizen of Algerian origin. According to the German news magazine Der Spiegel, Sidiqi told his US interrogators that after receiving training in Pakistan, he fought in Afghanistan and met Said Bahaji, who is wanted for involvement in 9/11. Sidiqi reportedly moved to Mir Ali, a border town in North Waziristan where he met Sheikh Younis al-Mauretani, who Sidiqi said had become Al Qaeda's third most senior leader. The Sheikh told him about plans for a series of attacks in several European countries, including the UK, Germany and France, according to Der Spiegel. Sidiqi claimed that Osama bin Laden had approved the plot and also provided some funding.
9. The claims made by Sidiqi seem to have triggered concerns in US and European security agencies about the likelihood of Mumbai-26/11 style terrorist strikes in the UK, France and Germany involving commando style attacks with mixed modus operandi combining the use of hand-held weapons and explosives. The objective will be to punish EU countries playing a prominent role in the operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Madrid terrorist strikes of March 2004 and the London terrorist strikes of July 2005 were directed against the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. The terrorist strikes planned now would seek to punish the West for its involvement in Afghanistan.
10 In the Madrid strikes, North African members of Al Qaeda played an active role. Pakistani suicide bombers played an active role in the London blasts. It is likely that a mix of jihadis of Pakistani (in UK), North African (in France) and Uzbek and Turkish origin (in Germany) could play a role in the Afghanistan-focused terrorist strikes now being planned. One found an Afghanistan focus even in the Mumbai—26/11 terrorist strikes by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) since many of the foreigners killed came from countries whose troops were fighting in Afghanistan.
11. Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban are looking for an Afghanistan-focused operation in Europe, but there are no indications that trained persons for such an operation might have already been dispatched to Europe. The current Drone strikes in North and South Waziristan, in which some persons of German origin had been killed, are intended to pre-empt any new terrorist strikes in Europe by killing those trained or being trained for this purpose before they could be dispatched to Europe. The security alerts and travel advisories issued by the US and others indicate that despite the success of the Drone strikes, there is a fear that some trained jihadis might have already reached Europe. Ziercke, the head of Germany's Federal Office of Criminal Investigation, reportedly said in a recent interview with the Berlin newspaper Der Tagesspiegel that there was evidence that at least 70 Islamic radicals from Germany had undergone military training in Pakistan, and that 40 of them are believed to have gone on to fight coalition forces in Afghanistan ( 6-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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