B.RAMAN
Under its "Newsnight" programme, British Broadcasting Corporation 2 is reportedly planning to show at 10-30 PM on June 29, 2009, an investigative story on the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 26,2008, by Richard Watson, its correspondent. An advance version of the programme disseminated to the media in the UK and India shows that as a result of his investigation, Watson came to the conclusion that spotters belonging to a Mumbai-based sleeper cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba ( LET) must have been communicating to the LET's controlling officers in
Pakistan details of the police deployments and movements in and around the targeted areas on the basis of which they were able to give precise instructions to the terrorists participating in the multiple attacks. He questions the Mumbai police version that the controllers were able to give such instructions purely on the basis of their visual observations from the TV coverage of the attacks as they were taking place.
2. As reported by "TheTelegraph" of the UK, Watson says as follows: "How did the leaders know the police positions in such detail? Mumbai police say they were watching live TV in Pakistan. But these instructions seem remarkably precise for that. I know the kind of live-shots used in these situations and they would be unlikely to yield that kind of detail. It is far more likely that they had spotters on the ground who were feeding back information to their leaders about the police movements. If this is true then it means a Lashkar e-Taiba cell in Mumbai
which played a crucial role in the attacks which is still undiscovered."
3. His conclusion is based on his assessment of the communications intelligence collected by the police and not on the basis of any independent evidence collected by him in addition to what the Mumbai Police had collected.
4. The fact that the LET has been having sleeper cells in Mumbai is well known since the twin explosions of August,2003. It is also a reasonable possibility that the Mumbai Police has not been able to identify and neutralise all the sleeper cells of the LET in Mumbai. That is why acts of terrorism keep taking place from time to time despite the neutralisation of many cells in Mumbai and other cities. Recently, a sleeper cell headed by a Nepal-based LET operative was neutralised by the Delhi Police.
5. To say that the LET must still be having unearthed sleeper cells in Mumbai is one thing and to assert that the spotters of an LET sleeper cell in Mumbai must have been passing on details of police deployments around the targeted areas to the controllers in Pakistan during the attack in Novembere,2008, is something totally different.
6. The Mumbai terrorist attack lasted nearly over 60 hours. Nationals of many Western countries and Israel were among those taken hostage by the terrorists. The intelligence agencies of at least India, the US and Israel were electronically monitoring the telephone calls from and to the attacked areas on a minute-to-minute basis. Of all the intelligence agencies of the world, the National Security Agency (NSA). the electronic intelligence agency of the US, has deployed the maximum technical assets in the Af-Pak region since 9/11 to monitor the communications of Al Qaeda, the LET and other associates. Once the terrorist attacks started, the NSA must have turned all its assets in the region towards Mumbai to monitor all in-coming and out-going communications. So too the Indian intelligence.
7. The Indian and the US intelligence agencies were able to intercept all communications passing between the terrorists who had occupied the two hotels and the Narriman House and their controlling officers in Pakistan. In addition to contemporaneously monitoring telephone conversations, intelligence agencies have also arrangements for automatic recording of all conversations in a terrorism situation so that if they contemporaneously miss any conversation, they can refer to the recordings.
8. Had there been LET spotters around the areas targeted, who were in independent communication with the controllers in Pakistan their conversations---- whether through the Internet or otherwise--- must have also been intercepted contemporaneously or recorded and noticed subsequently. No intelligence agency----neither Indian nor the US nor of any other country--- has spoken of any such conversation with Pakistan by elements not participating in the attacks. This would show that apart from the 10 terrorists of the LET, who participated in the attacks, nobody else was in independent communication with the controllers in Pakistan.
9. The terrorist attacks were covered from different camera angles by camera teams from over 50 TV channels of the world. If the controllers in Pakistan had been able to see all their live transmissions, they would have had the minutest details of the police deployments. During the Black September kidnapping of some Israeli athletes during the Munich Olympics in 1972, the terrorists, who had taken up position with the hostages inside a house in the games village, were able to get details of the police deployments by watching the TV inside the house. At that time, there were hardly half a dozen channels and their technical equipment was not very good. If they were able to get so
many details by watching so few channels, it should not be surprising that the Pakistan-based controllers of the Mumbai attacks were able to get a lot more details in such precision. (29-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, June 29, 2009
Sunday, June 28, 2009
CHINESE AID TO PAKISTAN IN COUNTER-TERRORISM: RESPONSE TO US REQUEST?
B.RAMAN
Replying to the debate on the budgetary demands of the Ministry of the Interior in the National Assembly on June 24,2009, Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, said: “Due to the efforts of the President and the Prime Minister, the Chinese Government has provided $290 million for capacity building of our security forces.” Even though he did not specifically say so, the capacity-building he was referring to is in the field of counter-terrorism. This would be in addition to continuing Chinese assistance to the Pakistani Armed Forces to strengthen their
capability against their Indian counterparts.
2. The decision of the Chinese authorities to assist Pakistani capacity-building in counter-terrorism was officially conveyed to Malik when he visited Beijing and Shanghai from June 9 to 12,2009. The visit was preceded by the Pakistan Government’s handing over to the Chinese of 10 members of the Uighur diaspora in Pakistan despite objections from the Amnesty International, which feared that these Uighurs might be executed by China without proper trial, The Pakistani authorities, who officially revealed the handing-over on June 5,2009, as reported by the "News" of June 6, claimed that these Uighurs, who were rounded up during the Pakistan Army's counter-insurgency operations in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), belonged to the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). They have not indicated when they were rounded up. However, it is understood that the Amnesty International has been taking up their case since March. This would mean that they must have been rounded up in or before March,2009.
3. The "News" of June 6 reported as follows: "According to some sources in Islamabad, the Chinese militants were extradited despite opposition by the Amnesty International. In March 2009, Tim Parritt, Deputy Director of the Amnesty International’s Asia-Pacific Programme, had observed that whatever these militants were accused of, the risks posed to them were extremely grave, if forcibly returned to China. He had maintained that under the international law, states were obliged not to expel, return or extradite any person to a country where they risk torture or other ill-treatment. However, the Pakistani authorities insist that all those who had been extradited to Beijing were involved in terrorist activities both in China and in Pakistan and had also developed links with al-Qaeda network in the tribal areas of Pakistan. They said the fact that the ETIM militants had extended their network of terrorist activities to Pakistan was evident from a threat they had conveyed to the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad, saying they intended to kidnap Chinese diplomats and consular officers stationed in the Pakistani federal capital with a view to highlighting their cause. The Chinese mission subsequently informed the Pakistani authorities in a letter that some members of the ETIM had already reached Islamabad and planned to kidnap their staffers from the federal capital. The letter reportedly pointed out that terrorist groups located in Pakistan, including al-Qaeda, had been providing support to the ETIM activists for the likely kidnappings. Subsequent investigations had established that the anonymous threat was issued by none other than the East Turkistan Islamic Movement and that the would-be kidnappers had first travelled to Jalalabad in Afghanistan to finalise their plans."
4. During his stay in Beijing, Malik met State Councillor and Minister for Public Security Meng Jianzhu, the Communist Party of China Politburo Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkong and the Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, who hosted a dinner for him. There were no reports of any meeting with President Hu Jintao or Prime Minister Wen Jiabo.
5.Talking to pressmen in Beijing, Malik said: " We have signed a number of agreements to build the capacity of our law enforcing agencies. We have signed agreements worth $ 300 million to acquire state of the art equipment to combat terrorism. The first consignment of these most needed equipment would be reaching Pakistan within three weeks. We want to ensure that our law enforcing agencies are well equipped, so that they could thwart with full force militancy. The equipment Pakistan needed included most modern mobile scanners that can detect hidden explosives and drugs. Initially, we would start employing these equipment in the metropolitan cities under threat of terrorism, like Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi and then gradually we plan to cover the entire country. "
6.On June 12,2009, a blogspot of the "People's Daily" of China devoted to military issues had the following commentary: "Will China play a more "direct" role in both the Pakistan and Afghanistan conflicts? During the past two days, both Afghanistan and Pakistan are sending envoys to China to ask for China’s "direct" help in their fight against militants. The previous attempts to draw China into the conflicts by both
NATO and US met with little success as China preferred to stay in the background and aid only in forms of financial and hardware support. China’s previous rejection to joining the military coalition is understandable as others have noted; while China does not view NATO/US missions in Afghanistan with suspicion compared to other Shanghai Co-operation Organisation states but allowing a military alliance to use China as a military supply route seem to undermine the Chinese Security-Umbrella that took 60 years and four wars to build. In addition, such an act violates China’s core foreign policy doctrine of non-interference in others' internal affairs. At the same time, the core Chinese
military doctrine is changing with the release of the new “Outline of Military Training and Evaluation” which for the first time placed focus on Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) role for the PLA outside of China’s borders and anti-terror operation is considered part of the MOOTW. China is hosting the first “Non-traditional Security Forum of Armed Forces of ASEAN, China, Japan and ROK , something unthinkable just a few years ago. Maybe China is ready to move out of the “hide my capabilities and bide my time” phase to the “make some contributions” phase to be in line of what Hu coined the “harmonious world” (a.k.a, making the world safe for Confucianism) in his “Go Abroad” policy shift. It is also noted that both the Pakistan and Afghanistan’s request is coordinated and without "US/NATO involvement" which makes the request a bit more politically acceptable in China and the statement by Rehman Malik that "Pakistan has handed Chinese nationals accused of insurgent activity back to China and will continue to do so" is clearly aimed at audiences in China. Judging from China's Foreign Ministry Press Release , China might be ready to take a more direct role. China is ready to further expand and deepen our cooperation in various fields on the basis of mutual benefit so as to push forward our comprehensive partnership of cooperation."
7.Some weeks ago, the "Los Angeles Time" had reported that Richard Holbrooke, the US Special envoy on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, had visited China and requested it to play a more active role in assisting Pakistan in counter-terrorism. Is the new "direct role" by China under its newly-formulated MOOTW doctrine an immediate response to the US request? In this connection, reference is invited to my article of May 27,2009 titled "Obama And Counter-Insurgency in Chinese Colours" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3216.html .
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Replying to the debate on the budgetary demands of the Ministry of the Interior in the National Assembly on June 24,2009, Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, said: “Due to the efforts of the President and the Prime Minister, the Chinese Government has provided $290 million for capacity building of our security forces.” Even though he did not specifically say so, the capacity-building he was referring to is in the field of counter-terrorism. This would be in addition to continuing Chinese assistance to the Pakistani Armed Forces to strengthen their
capability against their Indian counterparts.
2. The decision of the Chinese authorities to assist Pakistani capacity-building in counter-terrorism was officially conveyed to Malik when he visited Beijing and Shanghai from June 9 to 12,2009. The visit was preceded by the Pakistan Government’s handing over to the Chinese of 10 members of the Uighur diaspora in Pakistan despite objections from the Amnesty International, which feared that these Uighurs might be executed by China without proper trial, The Pakistani authorities, who officially revealed the handing-over on June 5,2009, as reported by the "News" of June 6, claimed that these Uighurs, who were rounded up during the Pakistan Army's counter-insurgency operations in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), belonged to the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). They have not indicated when they were rounded up. However, it is understood that the Amnesty International has been taking up their case since March. This would mean that they must have been rounded up in or before March,2009.
3. The "News" of June 6 reported as follows: "According to some sources in Islamabad, the Chinese militants were extradited despite opposition by the Amnesty International. In March 2009, Tim Parritt, Deputy Director of the Amnesty International’s Asia-Pacific Programme, had observed that whatever these militants were accused of, the risks posed to them were extremely grave, if forcibly returned to China. He had maintained that under the international law, states were obliged not to expel, return or extradite any person to a country where they risk torture or other ill-treatment. However, the Pakistani authorities insist that all those who had been extradited to Beijing were involved in terrorist activities both in China and in Pakistan and had also developed links with al-Qaeda network in the tribal areas of Pakistan. They said the fact that the ETIM militants had extended their network of terrorist activities to Pakistan was evident from a threat they had conveyed to the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad, saying they intended to kidnap Chinese diplomats and consular officers stationed in the Pakistani federal capital with a view to highlighting their cause. The Chinese mission subsequently informed the Pakistani authorities in a letter that some members of the ETIM had already reached Islamabad and planned to kidnap their staffers from the federal capital. The letter reportedly pointed out that terrorist groups located in Pakistan, including al-Qaeda, had been providing support to the ETIM activists for the likely kidnappings. Subsequent investigations had established that the anonymous threat was issued by none other than the East Turkistan Islamic Movement and that the would-be kidnappers had first travelled to Jalalabad in Afghanistan to finalise their plans."
4. During his stay in Beijing, Malik met State Councillor and Minister for Public Security Meng Jianzhu, the Communist Party of China Politburo Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkong and the Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, who hosted a dinner for him. There were no reports of any meeting with President Hu Jintao or Prime Minister Wen Jiabo.
5.Talking to pressmen in Beijing, Malik said: " We have signed a number of agreements to build the capacity of our law enforcing agencies. We have signed agreements worth $ 300 million to acquire state of the art equipment to combat terrorism. The first consignment of these most needed equipment would be reaching Pakistan within three weeks. We want to ensure that our law enforcing agencies are well equipped, so that they could thwart with full force militancy. The equipment Pakistan needed included most modern mobile scanners that can detect hidden explosives and drugs. Initially, we would start employing these equipment in the metropolitan cities under threat of terrorism, like Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi and then gradually we plan to cover the entire country. "
6.On June 12,2009, a blogspot of the "People's Daily" of China devoted to military issues had the following commentary: "Will China play a more "direct" role in both the Pakistan and Afghanistan conflicts? During the past two days, both Afghanistan and Pakistan are sending envoys to China to ask for China’s "direct" help in their fight against militants. The previous attempts to draw China into the conflicts by both
NATO and US met with little success as China preferred to stay in the background and aid only in forms of financial and hardware support. China’s previous rejection to joining the military coalition is understandable as others have noted; while China does not view NATO/US missions in Afghanistan with suspicion compared to other Shanghai Co-operation Organisation states but allowing a military alliance to use China as a military supply route seem to undermine the Chinese Security-Umbrella that took 60 years and four wars to build. In addition, such an act violates China’s core foreign policy doctrine of non-interference in others' internal affairs. At the same time, the core Chinese
military doctrine is changing with the release of the new “Outline of Military Training and Evaluation” which for the first time placed focus on Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) role for the PLA outside of China’s borders and anti-terror operation is considered part of the MOOTW. China is hosting the first “Non-traditional Security Forum of Armed Forces of ASEAN, China, Japan and ROK , something unthinkable just a few years ago. Maybe China is ready to move out of the “hide my capabilities and bide my time” phase to the “make some contributions” phase to be in line of what Hu coined the “harmonious world” (a.k.a, making the world safe for Confucianism) in his “Go Abroad” policy shift. It is also noted that both the Pakistan and Afghanistan’s request is coordinated and without "US/NATO involvement" which makes the request a bit more politically acceptable in China and the statement by Rehman Malik that "Pakistan has handed Chinese nationals accused of insurgent activity back to China and will continue to do so" is clearly aimed at audiences in China. Judging from China's Foreign Ministry Press Release , China might be ready to take a more direct role. China is ready to further expand and deepen our cooperation in various fields on the basis of mutual benefit so as to push forward our comprehensive partnership of cooperation."
7.Some weeks ago, the "Los Angeles Time" had reported that Richard Holbrooke, the US Special envoy on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, had visited China and requested it to play a more active role in assisting Pakistan in counter-terrorism. Is the new "direct role" by China under its newly-formulated MOOTW doctrine an immediate response to the US request? In this connection, reference is invited to my article of May 27,2009 titled "Obama And Counter-Insurgency in Chinese Colours" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3216.html .
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, June 27, 2009
AL QAEDA JUSTIFIES TALIBAN ATTACKS ON PAK ARMY
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 539
B.RAMAN
Since February last, a debate has been going on in the jihadi circles in Pakistan over the wisdom of the attacks launched by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) headed by Baitullah Mehsud, its Amir, against the Pakistani Armed Forces and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
2.Some of the jihadi organizations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) and the Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) have been uncomfortable over the attacks launched by the TTP on the Pakistani Armed Forces and the ISI. They are of the view that the TTP should focus its attacks on the US and other NATO troops in Afghanistan.
3.Even the Afghan Taliban headed by its Amir Mulla Mohammad Omar has been critical of the TTP.
4.The only jihadi organizations supportive of the tactics of the TTP are the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), which is an anti-Shia organization.They are of the view that since the Pakistan Army has been collaborating with the US forces in their operations against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, attacks on it and the ISI are justified.
5.Till now, Al Qaeda was silent in this debate. In a message addressed to the Pakistani nation on June 3,2009, on the fighting in the Swat Valley, Osama bin Laden has justified the attacks of the TTP on the Pakistan Army by describing the Government of Asif Ali Zardari as a Government of kafirs and by denouncing the Pakistan Army under Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani as an army of kafirs.
6.According to his arguments, since the Government of Zardari and the Army under Kayani have let themselves be used by a kafir state like the US for killing faithful Muslims, who wanted to live according to the Sharia, they have become kafirs and ceased to be true Muslims.
7.bin Laden says: “ There is a response to those who deprecatorily question: How do the Mujahideen fight the Pakistani Army, which is a Muslim army? The Pakistani Army is the one which came to the tribal region to fight them in agreement with America and in response to its demands. It should be clear if a Muslim supported kafirs against Muslims, his faith will recoil. He will become a kafir and apostate…. Who stood by America the Christian and who supported it? Isn’t that Zardari, his Government and the Army? How would you judge? He who supports kafirs becomes one of them. He must be fought against even if he fasted, prayed and claimed he is a Muslim…..The Pakistani Army is with America in the same trench against Islam. It is the duty of the honest people of Islam to fight them.”
8.bin Laden has compared the Pakistani Army under Kayani to the Afghan Army under Najibullah, which allegedly let itself be used by the Soviet Army for killing true Muslims in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistan expect Kayani to meet the fate of Najibullah. They point out that religious clerics in Pakistan had issued fatwas against Najibullah for co-operating with the Soviet Army and ask how can they now support Kayani, who has been co-operating with the US army.
9.In their propaganda, Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistan have sought to address the question as to why Al Qaeda has not been able to carry out another 9/11 in the US Homeland. They attribute this to its preoccupation with the fighting against the US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
10.At the same time, they claim that Al Qaeda has not given up its plans for another 9/11 in the US Homeland. They believe that the growing Pashtun anger against the US and the exodus of over two million Pashtun refugees from their homes as a result of the anti-TTP operations allegedly forced on the Pakistan Army by the US have created favourable conditions for planning another 9/11 in the US Homeland. They also believe that just as the “martyrs” of 9/11 came from the Arab world, the “martyrs” of the next 9/11 will come from the Pashtun world.
11. Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistan say that bin Laden would soon be coming out with a fitting rejoinder to President Barack Obama’s Cairo message addressed to the Muslims.
12.My earlier comments on a version of the same audio message
of June 3 as disseminated by Al Jazeera may be seen at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3229.html. Kindly also see my earlier article of June 7,2009, titled “Anti-Taliban Operation Projected as Anti-Pashtun” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3238.html ( 27-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Since February last, a debate has been going on in the jihadi circles in Pakistan over the wisdom of the attacks launched by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) headed by Baitullah Mehsud, its Amir, against the Pakistani Armed Forces and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
2.Some of the jihadi organizations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) and the Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) have been uncomfortable over the attacks launched by the TTP on the Pakistani Armed Forces and the ISI. They are of the view that the TTP should focus its attacks on the US and other NATO troops in Afghanistan.
3.Even the Afghan Taliban headed by its Amir Mulla Mohammad Omar has been critical of the TTP.
4.The only jihadi organizations supportive of the tactics of the TTP are the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), which is an anti-Shia organization.They are of the view that since the Pakistan Army has been collaborating with the US forces in their operations against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, attacks on it and the ISI are justified.
5.Till now, Al Qaeda was silent in this debate. In a message addressed to the Pakistani nation on June 3,2009, on the fighting in the Swat Valley, Osama bin Laden has justified the attacks of the TTP on the Pakistan Army by describing the Government of Asif Ali Zardari as a Government of kafirs and by denouncing the Pakistan Army under Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani as an army of kafirs.
6.According to his arguments, since the Government of Zardari and the Army under Kayani have let themselves be used by a kafir state like the US for killing faithful Muslims, who wanted to live according to the Sharia, they have become kafirs and ceased to be true Muslims.
7.bin Laden says: “ There is a response to those who deprecatorily question: How do the Mujahideen fight the Pakistani Army, which is a Muslim army? The Pakistani Army is the one which came to the tribal region to fight them in agreement with America and in response to its demands. It should be clear if a Muslim supported kafirs against Muslims, his faith will recoil. He will become a kafir and apostate…. Who stood by America the Christian and who supported it? Isn’t that Zardari, his Government and the Army? How would you judge? He who supports kafirs becomes one of them. He must be fought against even if he fasted, prayed and claimed he is a Muslim…..The Pakistani Army is with America in the same trench against Islam. It is the duty of the honest people of Islam to fight them.”
8.bin Laden has compared the Pakistani Army under Kayani to the Afghan Army under Najibullah, which allegedly let itself be used by the Soviet Army for killing true Muslims in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistan expect Kayani to meet the fate of Najibullah. They point out that religious clerics in Pakistan had issued fatwas against Najibullah for co-operating with the Soviet Army and ask how can they now support Kayani, who has been co-operating with the US army.
9.In their propaganda, Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistan have sought to address the question as to why Al Qaeda has not been able to carry out another 9/11 in the US Homeland. They attribute this to its preoccupation with the fighting against the US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
10.At the same time, they claim that Al Qaeda has not given up its plans for another 9/11 in the US Homeland. They believe that the growing Pashtun anger against the US and the exodus of over two million Pashtun refugees from their homes as a result of the anti-TTP operations allegedly forced on the Pakistan Army by the US have created favourable conditions for planning another 9/11 in the US Homeland. They also believe that just as the “martyrs” of 9/11 came from the Arab world, the “martyrs” of the next 9/11 will come from the Pashtun world.
11. Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistan say that bin Laden would soon be coming out with a fitting rejoinder to President Barack Obama’s Cairo message addressed to the Muslims.
12.My earlier comments on a version of the same audio message
of June 3 as disseminated by Al Jazeera may be seen at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3229.html. Kindly also see my earlier article of June 7,2009, titled “Anti-Taliban Operation Projected as Anti-Pashtun” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3238.html ( 27-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2gmail.com )
WHY SUICIDE ATTACK ON PAKISTAN ARMY IN POK?
International Terrorism Monitor- Paper No. 538
B. Raman
Two soldiers of the Pakistan Army were killed and three others injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), early on the morning of June 26,2009.
2. The Pakistani media has carried conflicting versions of the suicide attack. The "News" ( June 26) reported that "a suicide bomber ripped through an Army vehicle near Shaukat Lines, Muzaffarabad" without giving other details. The "Daily Times" of Lahore (June 26) reported that "he blew himself up near an army vehicle."
3. However, in its online edition of June 26, the "Dawn" of Karachi gave a different and more detailed version. To quote it: " According to witnesses, a bearded man in his twenties walked through a ground used by army personnel for physical training and local youths as a playground and entered the barracks of non-commissioned army men at about 6.30am. 'The bomber was intercepted by a soldier whom he tried to engage in a conversation presumably to attract other soldiers around for causing maximum casualties’ and then blew himself up, official sources said. A soldier was killed on the spot and four others were injured and taken to the Combined Military Hospital where one of them died. An army pick-up parked a few yards away overturned and another vehicle was damaged. The blast was heard in most parts of the town. An intelligence official said the ground was splattered with blood and limbs. He said four legs and other limbs had been found in the ground and under the overturned vehicle which indicated that more than one bomber might have been involved in the attack. The junior section of the Army Public School, several other educational institutions and the 5-AK Brigade headquarters are around the place where the blast took place."
4.The "Dawn" report gave another significant detail. It said: "The barracks fall under the 5-AK Brigade of the Azad Kashmir (AK) Regiment which is reportedly taking part in the operation against militants in Swat and adjoining areas."
5. The Azad Kashmir Regiment (AKR) has had an interesting history. When the Pakistan Army tried to capture Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) in 1947-48, it first sent into the state a large number of Mehsuds, Wazirs and other tribes recruited by it in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and trained and armed by it. Pakistan denied any responsibility for their actions and projected them during the debates in the UN Security Council as Kashmiris, who had risen in revolt against the then Maharaja of J&K and the Government of India. It used to describe them as Kashmiri irregulars over whom it had no control.
6. After the 1948 ceasefire, the Pakistan Army constituted these so-called irregulars into a unit called the Azad Kashmir Regular Forces (AKRF), which was shown as a para-military force of the POK Government. It was placed under the over-all control of the Pakistan Army. The tribals of the AKRF were again used by the then President Ayub Khan for spearheading the invasion of J&K in 1965. The invasion, which led to fighting between the Indian and Pakistan Armies, failed.
7. When the Bengalis of the then East Pakistan rose in revolt in 1971, Yahya Khan sent the fanatic tribals of the AKRF to East Pakistan where they indulged in large-scale massacre of Bengalis. In 1972, in recognition of its "services" in East Pakistan, the Pakistan Army absorbed the AKRF into the regular army and renamed it the Azad Kashmir Regiment (AKR). Its Regimental Center is located at Mansar, Attock District, Punjab. Initially, the AKR consisted largely of Pashtun tribals recruited in the FATA officered by Punjabis. Now it has a larger percentage of Punjabis. Exact present figures of Pashtuns and Punjabis in the AKR are not available.
8. When there were fears in Pakistan of a military retaliation by the Indian Armed Forces after the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008, Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the TTP, had reportedly said that if India attacked Pakistan, the TTP would stop its fight against the Pakistan Army and join it in fighting against India. This was welcomed by a Pakistani Army spokesman as a patriotic gesture. Subsequently, there were reports of differences developing between the TTP on the one side and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami(HUJI) and the Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) on the other because of the unhappiness of these four Kashmir-centric organisations over the attacks being carried out by the TTP on the Pakistan Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). They reportedly felt that the TTP and other organisations should focus on attacking the NATO forces in Afghanistan in collaboration with the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda and should not attack the Pakistan Army. Only the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), the anti-Shia organisation, supported the TTP's fight against the Pakistan Army. They felt that since the Pakistan Army was letting itself be used by the US against Al Qaeda, attacks on it were justified.Following these differences, the TTP reportedly ordered these four organisations to close down their training camps in the tribal belt.
9. Since the TTP came into existence in 2007 after the Pakistan Army's commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July,2007, it has carried out over a hundred acts of suicide terrorism.Many of them were in non-tribal areas and important cities and cantonments such as Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi, Lahore, Sargodha and other places. Many of these attacks were directed at the Army, the ISI,the Special Services Group (SSG), the US-trained commando group, the Air Force, the Navy, the Police and the Federal Investigation Agency. Recently, the TTP had warned of an attack in Multan from where the operations of the helicopter gunships in the Swat Valley are co-ordinated.
10. But it had carefully refrained from any act of suicide terrorism in the POK. This is the first time there has been an act of suicide terrorism in the POK, which has been attributed to the TTP. The Associated Press and sections of the Pakistani media have quoted Hakimullah Mehsud, a close associate of Baitullah, who is responsible for the TTP activities in the Orakzai, Khyber and Kurram areas and who also coordinates Taliban attacks on trucks carrying logistic supplies to the NATO troops in Afghanistan, as claiming responsibility on behalf of the TTP for the Muzaffarabad attack. A person claiming to be Hakimullah was reported to have told the AP over phone that the attack was made to prove that Baitullah had not been weakened by more than a week of strikes on his suspected hideouts in South Waziristan.. “We are in a position to respond to the army’s attacks, and time will prove that these military operations have not weakened us," he reportedly said. It also needs to be noted that since the co-ordinated hunt for Baitullah started, Hakimullah's men have stepped up their attacks on Shias in the Kurram Agency.
11. Presuming that this call was, in fact, made by Hakimullah and that it was the TTP which had carried out the attack, the Muzaffarabad attack reflects the concerns of the TTP and Baitullah over the co-ordinated operations launched by the Pakistani and US forces in South Waziristan in order to neutralise Baitullah and his close associates. The TTP has apparently come to the conclusion that only fears of reprisal attacks in the POK could prevent the Pakistan Army from reinforcing its ground forces in South Waziristan for the operations against Baitullah and his forces.
12. The Pakistan Army, which has by now got used to a wave of suicide attacks all over Pakistan, is unlikely to be deterred from the South Waziristan operation by a single attack in the POK by the TTP. But if there are more such attacks and in quick succession, it might be unnerved by the prospects of instability in the POK as a result of its operations in the NWFP and the FATA. As of now, the TTP does not appear to have the capability for sustained operations in the POK. Even if it has, it is unlikely to use it since any attempt to create instability in the POK would aggravate the divide between it and the people of Pakistan. Its anti-Army activities in the POK could also be opposed by the anti-India, Kashmir-centric jihadi groups.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B. Raman
Two soldiers of the Pakistan Army were killed and three others injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), early on the morning of June 26,2009.
2. The Pakistani media has carried conflicting versions of the suicide attack. The "News" ( June 26) reported that "a suicide bomber ripped through an Army vehicle near Shaukat Lines, Muzaffarabad" without giving other details. The "Daily Times" of Lahore (June 26) reported that "he blew himself up near an army vehicle."
3. However, in its online edition of June 26, the "Dawn" of Karachi gave a different and more detailed version. To quote it: " According to witnesses, a bearded man in his twenties walked through a ground used by army personnel for physical training and local youths as a playground and entered the barracks of non-commissioned army men at about 6.30am. 'The bomber was intercepted by a soldier whom he tried to engage in a conversation presumably to attract other soldiers around for causing maximum casualties’ and then blew himself up, official sources said. A soldier was killed on the spot and four others were injured and taken to the Combined Military Hospital where one of them died. An army pick-up parked a few yards away overturned and another vehicle was damaged. The blast was heard in most parts of the town. An intelligence official said the ground was splattered with blood and limbs. He said four legs and other limbs had been found in the ground and under the overturned vehicle which indicated that more than one bomber might have been involved in the attack. The junior section of the Army Public School, several other educational institutions and the 5-AK Brigade headquarters are around the place where the blast took place."
4.The "Dawn" report gave another significant detail. It said: "The barracks fall under the 5-AK Brigade of the Azad Kashmir (AK) Regiment which is reportedly taking part in the operation against militants in Swat and adjoining areas."
5. The Azad Kashmir Regiment (AKR) has had an interesting history. When the Pakistan Army tried to capture Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) in 1947-48, it first sent into the state a large number of Mehsuds, Wazirs and other tribes recruited by it in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and trained and armed by it. Pakistan denied any responsibility for their actions and projected them during the debates in the UN Security Council as Kashmiris, who had risen in revolt against the then Maharaja of J&K and the Government of India. It used to describe them as Kashmiri irregulars over whom it had no control.
6. After the 1948 ceasefire, the Pakistan Army constituted these so-called irregulars into a unit called the Azad Kashmir Regular Forces (AKRF), which was shown as a para-military force of the POK Government. It was placed under the over-all control of the Pakistan Army. The tribals of the AKRF were again used by the then President Ayub Khan for spearheading the invasion of J&K in 1965. The invasion, which led to fighting between the Indian and Pakistan Armies, failed.
7. When the Bengalis of the then East Pakistan rose in revolt in 1971, Yahya Khan sent the fanatic tribals of the AKRF to East Pakistan where they indulged in large-scale massacre of Bengalis. In 1972, in recognition of its "services" in East Pakistan, the Pakistan Army absorbed the AKRF into the regular army and renamed it the Azad Kashmir Regiment (AKR). Its Regimental Center is located at Mansar, Attock District, Punjab. Initially, the AKR consisted largely of Pashtun tribals recruited in the FATA officered by Punjabis. Now it has a larger percentage of Punjabis. Exact present figures of Pashtuns and Punjabis in the AKR are not available.
8. When there were fears in Pakistan of a military retaliation by the Indian Armed Forces after the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008, Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the TTP, had reportedly said that if India attacked Pakistan, the TTP would stop its fight against the Pakistan Army and join it in fighting against India. This was welcomed by a Pakistani Army spokesman as a patriotic gesture. Subsequently, there were reports of differences developing between the TTP on the one side and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami(HUJI) and the Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) on the other because of the unhappiness of these four Kashmir-centric organisations over the attacks being carried out by the TTP on the Pakistan Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). They reportedly felt that the TTP and other organisations should focus on attacking the NATO forces in Afghanistan in collaboration with the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda and should not attack the Pakistan Army. Only the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), the anti-Shia organisation, supported the TTP's fight against the Pakistan Army. They felt that since the Pakistan Army was letting itself be used by the US against Al Qaeda, attacks on it were justified.Following these differences, the TTP reportedly ordered these four organisations to close down their training camps in the tribal belt.
9. Since the TTP came into existence in 2007 after the Pakistan Army's commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July,2007, it has carried out over a hundred acts of suicide terrorism.Many of them were in non-tribal areas and important cities and cantonments such as Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi, Lahore, Sargodha and other places. Many of these attacks were directed at the Army, the ISI,the Special Services Group (SSG), the US-trained commando group, the Air Force, the Navy, the Police and the Federal Investigation Agency. Recently, the TTP had warned of an attack in Multan from where the operations of the helicopter gunships in the Swat Valley are co-ordinated.
10. But it had carefully refrained from any act of suicide terrorism in the POK. This is the first time there has been an act of suicide terrorism in the POK, which has been attributed to the TTP. The Associated Press and sections of the Pakistani media have quoted Hakimullah Mehsud, a close associate of Baitullah, who is responsible for the TTP activities in the Orakzai, Khyber and Kurram areas and who also coordinates Taliban attacks on trucks carrying logistic supplies to the NATO troops in Afghanistan, as claiming responsibility on behalf of the TTP for the Muzaffarabad attack. A person claiming to be Hakimullah was reported to have told the AP over phone that the attack was made to prove that Baitullah had not been weakened by more than a week of strikes on his suspected hideouts in South Waziristan.. “We are in a position to respond to the army’s attacks, and time will prove that these military operations have not weakened us," he reportedly said. It also needs to be noted that since the co-ordinated hunt for Baitullah started, Hakimullah's men have stepped up their attacks on Shias in the Kurram Agency.
11. Presuming that this call was, in fact, made by Hakimullah and that it was the TTP which had carried out the attack, the Muzaffarabad attack reflects the concerns of the TTP and Baitullah over the co-ordinated operations launched by the Pakistani and US forces in South Waziristan in order to neutralise Baitullah and his close associates. The TTP has apparently come to the conclusion that only fears of reprisal attacks in the POK could prevent the Pakistan Army from reinforcing its ground forces in South Waziristan for the operations against Baitullah and his forces.
12. The Pakistan Army, which has by now got used to a wave of suicide attacks all over Pakistan, is unlikely to be deterred from the South Waziristan operation by a single attack in the POK by the TTP. But if there are more such attacks and in quick succession, it might be unnerved by the prospects of instability in the POK as a result of its operations in the NWFP and the FATA. As of now, the TTP does not appear to have the capability for sustained operations in the POK. Even if it has, it is unlikely to use it since any attempt to create instability in the POK would aggravate the divide between it and the people of Pakistan. Its anti-Army activities in the POK could also be opposed by the anti-India, Kashmir-centric jihadi groups.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, June 26, 2009
PAKISTAN'S REFUSAL TO HAND OVER MUMBAI ATTACK SUSPECTS
Pakistan's refusal to extradite Mumbai attack suspects for trial is part of long-standing policy
( Comments contributed at the request of “Jurist”, an online journal of the School of Law of the University of Pittsburgh --- available at http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/hotline/2009/06/pakistans-refusal-to-extradite-mumbai.php )
Bahukutumbi Raman [former head of the Counter-Terrorism Division, Research and Analysis Wing (India's external intelligence agency)]: "Even before the Mumbai terrorist attack of November, 2008, India had been repeatedly demanding the arrest and handing over to India by Pakistan of 20 terrorism suspects - Indian as well as Pakistani nationals - wanted for trial in India in terrorism-related cases. According to Indian investigators, they were living in Pakistan. In the case of the suspects who are Indian nationals, Pakistan denied their presence in its territory. In the case of the Pakistani nationals, it rejected the evidence against them produced by India as fabricated.
India has now demanded the arrest and handing over of 22 more suspects living in Pakistan, who are wanted in the trial relating to the Mumbai attack. All of them are Pakistani nationals and belong to the Lashkar-e-Toiba, a Pakistani terrorist organisation which had carried out the terrorist strike. These include Hafiz Mohammad Sayeed, the Amir of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the political wing of the LET. An Indian court before which the trial is presently being held has issued non-bailable warrants for their arrest and production before the court.
According to the media, the Pakistani authorities have ruled out the handing over of these persons to India on the ground that they are Pakistani nationals. They have said that if India could produce credible evidence of their involvement in the Mumbai attack they would be arrested and prosecuted before a Pakistani court, but the question of their being tried by an Indian court would not arise.
Five of these persons were arrested by the Pakistani police after the Mumbai attack on the basis of the evidence of their involvement in the Mumbai attack produced by Indian and US investigators. The Pakistani authorities say that they are making their own investigation into their involvement to corroborate the evidence collected by the Indian and US investigators and that they will be prosecuted in Pakistan if warranted by the evidence.
Since Pakistan became independent in 1947, it has never handed over to India any Pakistani national wanted for trial in India in respect to any crime. They continue to follow that policy even in respect to the Mumbai attack despite international pressure on them to co-operate with India in the investigation and prosecution of the accused. For them, co-operation does not mean handing over Pakistani nationals for trial by Indian courts." ---26-6-09
( Comments contributed at the request of “Jurist”, an online journal of the School of Law of the University of Pittsburgh --- available at http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/hotline/2009/06/pakistans-refusal-to-extradite-mumbai.php )
Bahukutumbi Raman [former head of the Counter-Terrorism Division, Research and Analysis Wing (India's external intelligence agency)]: "Even before the Mumbai terrorist attack of November, 2008, India had been repeatedly demanding the arrest and handing over to India by Pakistan of 20 terrorism suspects - Indian as well as Pakistani nationals - wanted for trial in India in terrorism-related cases. According to Indian investigators, they were living in Pakistan. In the case of the suspects who are Indian nationals, Pakistan denied their presence in its territory. In the case of the Pakistani nationals, it rejected the evidence against them produced by India as fabricated.
India has now demanded the arrest and handing over of 22 more suspects living in Pakistan, who are wanted in the trial relating to the Mumbai attack. All of them are Pakistani nationals and belong to the Lashkar-e-Toiba, a Pakistani terrorist organisation which had carried out the terrorist strike. These include Hafiz Mohammad Sayeed, the Amir of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the political wing of the LET. An Indian court before which the trial is presently being held has issued non-bailable warrants for their arrest and production before the court.
According to the media, the Pakistani authorities have ruled out the handing over of these persons to India on the ground that they are Pakistani nationals. They have said that if India could produce credible evidence of their involvement in the Mumbai attack they would be arrested and prosecuted before a Pakistani court, but the question of their being tried by an Indian court would not arise.
Five of these persons were arrested by the Pakistani police after the Mumbai attack on the basis of the evidence of their involvement in the Mumbai attack produced by Indian and US investigators. The Pakistani authorities say that they are making their own investigation into their involvement to corroborate the evidence collected by the Indian and US investigators and that they will be prosecuted in Pakistan if warranted by the evidence.
Since Pakistan became independent in 1947, it has never handed over to India any Pakistani national wanted for trial in India in respect to any crime. They continue to follow that policy even in respect to the Mumbai attack despite international pressure on them to co-operate with India in the investigation and prosecution of the accused. For them, co-operation does not mean handing over Pakistani nationals for trial by Indian courts." ---26-6-09
Thursday, June 25, 2009
AVOID DEMONISING AUSTRALIAN SOCIETY
B. Raman
Recurring incidents of violence by individual elements against Indian students in Australia have understandably given rise to concern in India as well as in the Indian student community in Australia about the physical security of the Indian students. This is a matter which needs the well-considered attention of the Australian authorities as well as the Indian diplomatic and consular missions in Australia.
2. While reflecting the concern felt in India over these incidents, sections of our media----particularly the electronic media--- and public opinion moulders unfortunately tend to lose a sense of balance and knowingly or unwittingly demonise the Australian society by projecting it as racist and arrogant. Such projections and a hysterical portrayal of the attacks as racist could prove counter-productive and will not be in the interests of the students themselves. They have gone to Australia for higher studies. During their stay in Australia, they are the guests of the Australian people. They should not allow attacks by individual elements in the Australian society to colour their attitude to the Australian people and authorities and affect the comfort level which has always prevailed between the Indian student community and their Australian hosts. Actions taken by some sections of the Indian student community such as organising huge demonstrations and creating a confrontational situation with the police are unwise and would not help in solving their concerns.
3. Australia is not a racist society today. It treats its foreign immigrants----wherever they are from--- with decency and dignity provided they have immigrated legally. It has been taking strong action against illegal immigrants not because it is racist but because it is worried over the security implications of unchecked illegal immigration ----particularly in the post-9/11 world. There are political organisations and figures in Australia, who demand strong action against illegant immigrants. By doing so, they do not become racists. In our country too, there are growing demands for strong action to stop unchecked illegal immigration of Muslims from Bangladesh. It will be as atrocious to project those opposing illegal immigration from Bangladesh as anti-Islam as it will be to project those opposing illegal immigration into Australia as racist.
4. There is no evidence to show that the attacks on some Indian students in Australia were motivated by racist prejudices. No study has been made of the causes for such attacks. From whatever little details are available, the attacks seem to have been due to feelings of jealousy and resentment arising from economic reasons. I have heard from Indian students in Australia that their university faculties look after the foreign students quite well and help them in getting part-time jobs while pursuing their studies so that they do not have to depend on their parents for pocket money. As a result of the economic melt-down, which has affected Australia too, the number of such part-time jobs available for students has come down. There is an intense competition between Australian and foreign students as well as among foreign students of different nationalities for the declining number of part-time jobs now available. This gives rise to friction in the students' community, which sometimes leads to a violent expression of the resulting jealousy and resentment. Hopefully, this will be a passing phase.
5. In some of our TV debates all sorts of meaningless arguments and unwise threats figure --- some of them coming even from retired bureaucratas, who should know better. One of such threats which one heard recently was: "The Australians should remember that their educational system will collapse if Indian students stop going there." Nothing can be more absurd. Yes, the Australian educational system has benefited from the large number of self-paying Indian students from upper middle class families who have gone there. With nearly 100,000 students from India studying in the Australian higher educational institutions, the Indian students constitute the largest single group of foreign students. But the benefit is not just one way. The Australian educational system has benefitted. So too the Indian students. India too will benefit from the knowledge and skills acquired by them. Many Indian students, who studied in prestigious Australian universities such as the Australian National University of Canberra, have done India proud by shining in whatever jobs they took up anywhere in the world after their education. We should not drop a huge boulder on our own feet by holding out such stupid threats.
6. Yes, the physical security of the students should be a matter of common concern to the authorities of the two countries. How to prevent such incidents has to be considered by the police and university authorities of Australia. The Indian students should discuss with them the measures required for enhanced security and help them in their implementation instead of creating bad blood through actions such as public demonstrations.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (red), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com)
Recurring incidents of violence by individual elements against Indian students in Australia have understandably given rise to concern in India as well as in the Indian student community in Australia about the physical security of the Indian students. This is a matter which needs the well-considered attention of the Australian authorities as well as the Indian diplomatic and consular missions in Australia.
2. While reflecting the concern felt in India over these incidents, sections of our media----particularly the electronic media--- and public opinion moulders unfortunately tend to lose a sense of balance and knowingly or unwittingly demonise the Australian society by projecting it as racist and arrogant. Such projections and a hysterical portrayal of the attacks as racist could prove counter-productive and will not be in the interests of the students themselves. They have gone to Australia for higher studies. During their stay in Australia, they are the guests of the Australian people. They should not allow attacks by individual elements in the Australian society to colour their attitude to the Australian people and authorities and affect the comfort level which has always prevailed between the Indian student community and their Australian hosts. Actions taken by some sections of the Indian student community such as organising huge demonstrations and creating a confrontational situation with the police are unwise and would not help in solving their concerns.
3. Australia is not a racist society today. It treats its foreign immigrants----wherever they are from--- with decency and dignity provided they have immigrated legally. It has been taking strong action against illegal immigrants not because it is racist but because it is worried over the security implications of unchecked illegal immigration ----particularly in the post-9/11 world. There are political organisations and figures in Australia, who demand strong action against illegant immigrants. By doing so, they do not become racists. In our country too, there are growing demands for strong action to stop unchecked illegal immigration of Muslims from Bangladesh. It will be as atrocious to project those opposing illegal immigration from Bangladesh as anti-Islam as it will be to project those opposing illegal immigration into Australia as racist.
4. There is no evidence to show that the attacks on some Indian students in Australia were motivated by racist prejudices. No study has been made of the causes for such attacks. From whatever little details are available, the attacks seem to have been due to feelings of jealousy and resentment arising from economic reasons. I have heard from Indian students in Australia that their university faculties look after the foreign students quite well and help them in getting part-time jobs while pursuing their studies so that they do not have to depend on their parents for pocket money. As a result of the economic melt-down, which has affected Australia too, the number of such part-time jobs available for students has come down. There is an intense competition between Australian and foreign students as well as among foreign students of different nationalities for the declining number of part-time jobs now available. This gives rise to friction in the students' community, which sometimes leads to a violent expression of the resulting jealousy and resentment. Hopefully, this will be a passing phase.
5. In some of our TV debates all sorts of meaningless arguments and unwise threats figure --- some of them coming even from retired bureaucratas, who should know better. One of such threats which one heard recently was: "The Australians should remember that their educational system will collapse if Indian students stop going there." Nothing can be more absurd. Yes, the Australian educational system has benefited from the large number of self-paying Indian students from upper middle class families who have gone there. With nearly 100,000 students from India studying in the Australian higher educational institutions, the Indian students constitute the largest single group of foreign students. But the benefit is not just one way. The Australian educational system has benefitted. So too the Indian students. India too will benefit from the knowledge and skills acquired by them. Many Indian students, who studied in prestigious Australian universities such as the Australian National University of Canberra, have done India proud by shining in whatever jobs they took up anywhere in the world after their education. We should not drop a huge boulder on our own feet by holding out such stupid threats.
6. Yes, the physical security of the students should be a matter of common concern to the authorities of the two countries. How to prevent such incidents has to be considered by the police and university authorities of Australia. The Indian students should discuss with them the measures required for enhanced security and help them in their implementation instead of creating bad blood through actions such as public demonstrations.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (red), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com)
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
WILL KHAMENEI HAVE THE LAST LAUGH?
B. Raman
There have been no reports of any major street demonstration in Tehran on June 23, 2009. Calls were sent out through Tweets to the protesters in Tehran to assemble at the Baharestan Sq at 4 PM Tehran time, but not many managed to reach there.
2. The Iranian intelligence agencies have been successful in identifying and arresting many Tweeters in Tehran. As a result, the number of Tweets coming out of Tehran is declining. However, the Jundullah, the Sunni organisation which has been fighting against the Iranian regime in the Iranian Balochistan (Sistan Balochistan), has started sending news of developments in Tehran and other cities of Iran through Pakistan for re-transmission to the rest of the world. Similarly, Iranian exiles abroad have been using the Jundullah elements in Pakistan for sending instructions and advice to the protesters in Iran.
3. On the night of June 23 too as on previous nights thousands of people got on to the balcony of their houses and indulged in well-synchronised shouting of Allah-o-Akbar. Many also reportedly shouted "Death to Khamenei" --- a reference to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tweets coming out of Tehran have claimed that in a response to a call from Mir Housain Mousavi, who has been spearheading the protest movement, many bazaris (shop-owners) observed a shutter-down strike on June 23.
4. The protesters seem to have realised that in view of the heavy deployment of the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards and their readiness to use lethal force to put down street demonstrations, huge processions of the kind witnessed every day last week are no longer possible. They are, therefore, holding discussions among themselves as to how to keep up the momentum of the protest movement. President Barack Obama and other Western leaders, who had maintained a discreet silence in the first few days of the protest lest their comments be projected by the Iranian authorities as proof of external orchestration of the protest movement, have become increasingly vocal in criticising the violent suppression of the protest movement. This probably indicates that the Western Governments have assessed that the protest movement has reached its apogee and that it cannot increase further without evidence of some external solidarity.
5. Moreover, despite the restraint exercised by the West in the initial days, the Iranian authorities, unnerved by the massive protests, started demonising the protesters by projecting them as "terrorists", members of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, a terrorist organisation, and stooges of external powers. Even Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, has been accusing the protesters of acting at the behest of external powers.
6. One would have expected that their campaign against the "external satan" would have been mainly against the US, which has had a past history of supporting dissident movements in Iran and undertaking destabilisation operations there. Surprisingly, they have not done so. Instead, their anger has been directed more against the British. The correspondent of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in Tehran has reportedly been expelled and two middle-level British diplomats posted in the British Embassy in Tehran have been declared persona-non-grata on charges of indulging in activities incompatible with their duties as diplomats. The British Government has retaliated by expelling two Iranian diplomats on similar charges.
7. The Iranian authorities have been telling their people that the plans for the protest movement had been masterminded by the British long before the elections. The virulent campaign against the British is surprising because the BBC was exercising considerable restraint in reporting on the events in Iran. It gave prominence to the views of the protesters as well as the Government. It did not play up the Tweets unlike the CNN, which has been disseminating the protesters' version of the events----almost blacking out the Government version.
8. For example, when the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards opened fire on the protesters on June 20 there were conflicting versions of the fatalities. The Government said that only 10 protesters were killed, but the protesters kept insisting in their Tweets that at least 20 were killed. Whereas the CNN accepted the version of the Tweeters, the BBC disseminated the Govt. claim.
9. The focussed attack on the British seems at least partly to reflect the discomfiture of the Iranian authorities over the large listenership of the Farsi language broadcasts of the BBC radio and their credibility in Iran. Of all the foreign broadcasts directed to the Iranian people, the BBC's Farsi service has the maximum listenership and credibility followed by those of the Voice of America. The CNN hardly has any credibility in Iran.
10. In their efforts to jam all foreign Farsi language broadcasts, the Iranian authorities are paying the maximum attention to the BBC and then to the VOA. Both these radio stations have already taken measures to circumvent the jamming by strengthening the power of their transmitters and by setting up new transmitters to supplement those which were already in place. The BBC has started using two extra satellites to broadcast its Farsi-language service. The U.S. Govt-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, based in central Europe, is also increasing the power and reach of its programmes meant for the Iranian people.
11. Iran's Guardian Council has already rejected the protesters' demand for a fresh Presidential poll. Khamenei has given a free hand to the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards to suppress the protest movement through lethal force. The Basij and the RG have been carrying out his orders without any reservations. Under these circumstances, it will be difficult for the dissenters to maintain the momentum of their street protests. They are hoping that the protests could be kept up through other actions such as strikes, shop closures etc. Till now, the maximum number of participants in the protests have been young students----boys and girls--- who have no livelihood to lose. The Bazaris, the entrepreneurs and the labour force may lose their livelihood if they respond to the strike call. If they don't, that could be the beginning of the end of the protest movement and Khamenei would have had the last laugh.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
There have been no reports of any major street demonstration in Tehran on June 23, 2009. Calls were sent out through Tweets to the protesters in Tehran to assemble at the Baharestan Sq at 4 PM Tehran time, but not many managed to reach there.
2. The Iranian intelligence agencies have been successful in identifying and arresting many Tweeters in Tehran. As a result, the number of Tweets coming out of Tehran is declining. However, the Jundullah, the Sunni organisation which has been fighting against the Iranian regime in the Iranian Balochistan (Sistan Balochistan), has started sending news of developments in Tehran and other cities of Iran through Pakistan for re-transmission to the rest of the world. Similarly, Iranian exiles abroad have been using the Jundullah elements in Pakistan for sending instructions and advice to the protesters in Iran.
3. On the night of June 23 too as on previous nights thousands of people got on to the balcony of their houses and indulged in well-synchronised shouting of Allah-o-Akbar. Many also reportedly shouted "Death to Khamenei" --- a reference to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tweets coming out of Tehran have claimed that in a response to a call from Mir Housain Mousavi, who has been spearheading the protest movement, many bazaris (shop-owners) observed a shutter-down strike on June 23.
4. The protesters seem to have realised that in view of the heavy deployment of the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards and their readiness to use lethal force to put down street demonstrations, huge processions of the kind witnessed every day last week are no longer possible. They are, therefore, holding discussions among themselves as to how to keep up the momentum of the protest movement. President Barack Obama and other Western leaders, who had maintained a discreet silence in the first few days of the protest lest their comments be projected by the Iranian authorities as proof of external orchestration of the protest movement, have become increasingly vocal in criticising the violent suppression of the protest movement. This probably indicates that the Western Governments have assessed that the protest movement has reached its apogee and that it cannot increase further without evidence of some external solidarity.
5. Moreover, despite the restraint exercised by the West in the initial days, the Iranian authorities, unnerved by the massive protests, started demonising the protesters by projecting them as "terrorists", members of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, a terrorist organisation, and stooges of external powers. Even Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, has been accusing the protesters of acting at the behest of external powers.
6. One would have expected that their campaign against the "external satan" would have been mainly against the US, which has had a past history of supporting dissident movements in Iran and undertaking destabilisation operations there. Surprisingly, they have not done so. Instead, their anger has been directed more against the British. The correspondent of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in Tehran has reportedly been expelled and two middle-level British diplomats posted in the British Embassy in Tehran have been declared persona-non-grata on charges of indulging in activities incompatible with their duties as diplomats. The British Government has retaliated by expelling two Iranian diplomats on similar charges.
7. The Iranian authorities have been telling their people that the plans for the protest movement had been masterminded by the British long before the elections. The virulent campaign against the British is surprising because the BBC was exercising considerable restraint in reporting on the events in Iran. It gave prominence to the views of the protesters as well as the Government. It did not play up the Tweets unlike the CNN, which has been disseminating the protesters' version of the events----almost blacking out the Government version.
8. For example, when the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards opened fire on the protesters on June 20 there were conflicting versions of the fatalities. The Government said that only 10 protesters were killed, but the protesters kept insisting in their Tweets that at least 20 were killed. Whereas the CNN accepted the version of the Tweeters, the BBC disseminated the Govt. claim.
9. The focussed attack on the British seems at least partly to reflect the discomfiture of the Iranian authorities over the large listenership of the Farsi language broadcasts of the BBC radio and their credibility in Iran. Of all the foreign broadcasts directed to the Iranian people, the BBC's Farsi service has the maximum listenership and credibility followed by those of the Voice of America. The CNN hardly has any credibility in Iran.
10. In their efforts to jam all foreign Farsi language broadcasts, the Iranian authorities are paying the maximum attention to the BBC and then to the VOA. Both these radio stations have already taken measures to circumvent the jamming by strengthening the power of their transmitters and by setting up new transmitters to supplement those which were already in place. The BBC has started using two extra satellites to broadcast its Farsi-language service. The U.S. Govt-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, based in central Europe, is also increasing the power and reach of its programmes meant for the Iranian people.
11. Iran's Guardian Council has already rejected the protesters' demand for a fresh Presidential poll. Khamenei has given a free hand to the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards to suppress the protest movement through lethal force. The Basij and the RG have been carrying out his orders without any reservations. Under these circumstances, it will be difficult for the dissenters to maintain the momentum of their street protests. They are hoping that the protests could be kept up through other actions such as strikes, shop closures etc. Till now, the maximum number of participants in the protests have been young students----boys and girls--- who have no livelihood to lose. The Bazaris, the entrepreneurs and the labour force may lose their livelihood if they respond to the strike call. If they don't, that could be the beginning of the end of the protest movement and Khamenei would have had the last laugh.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
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