AURANGZEBS OF TODAY
B.RAMAN

In a statement made after the July,2005, blasts in London organised by suicide terrorists of Pakistani origin, Mr.Tony Blair, the then British Prime Minister, spoke of the need to counter jihadi terrorism not only operationally through better intelligence, better physical security, better counter-terrorism operations etc, but also ideologically in order to draw the attention of the public to the pernicious ideas being spread by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi organisations and counter them energetically.

2. Amognst such pernicious ideas are that there was no civilisation in the world before the advent of Islam, that the Muslims have a right to re-capture all lands which historically belonged to them, that the Muslims do not recognise national frontiers and ,therefore, have a right to wage a jihad anywhere in the world where Islam is in danger and that the Muslims have the religious right and obligation to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and use them to protect their religion, if necessary.

3. The Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), which are members of Osama bin Laden's International Islamic Front (IIF), project Aurangzeb as the greatest ruler in the history of the Indian sub-continent and describe their aim as the "liberation" of the Muslims of India and restoration of what they view as the golden era of Aurangzeb in the sub-continent.

4. This glorification of Aurangzeb was actually started by the Pakistan Government after the birth of Pakistan in 1947. The text-books got written and prescribed in schools by different Pakistan Governments depicted that there was no civilisation or culture in India before the Muslims came to the sub-continent and glorified Aurangzeb. In September 1996, Murtaza Ali Bhutto, the younger brother of Benazir Bhutto, was allegedly killed by the police of Karachi after he had returned from Islamabad, where he allegedly had a fierce quarrel with Benazir and her husband Mr.Asif Ali Zardari over his demand that he should be appointed as the Vice-Chairman of the Pakistan People's Party. In a piece on the rule of Benazir, the "Economist" of London compared her to Aurangzeb.

5. This created a lot of interest among analysts over the influence of the Aurangzeb model on the minds of Pakistani rulers----political and military--- who grew up after its independence and studied the text-books, which glorified him. It is now recognised by imany that one of the reasons for the spreading prairie fire of jihadi terrorism in Pakistan is the pernicious influence of the Aurangzeb model on the mind-set of the Pakistani youth. Many of them, who are spreading havoc across Pakistan, see themselves as the Aurangzebs of today. Aurangzeb as well as bin Laden are their role models.

6. The overwhelming majority of the Indian Muslim youth, who remain intensely patriotic, have not let themselves be influenced by this pernicious veneration of bin Laden and Aurangzeb and their ideas, but recent events such as the involvement of one or two Indian Muslims in the UK with Al Qaeda, the role of two Indian Muslim youth in the attempted terrorist strikes in London and Glasgow in June last and the recent arrests of some Muslim youth of the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) in Karnataka indicate that some of these pernious ideas might have started winning adherents in the India Muslim community too---- in India as well as in the diaspora in the Gulf and the West.

7. Before this spreads further, it is important to counter this phenomenon ideologically. This is what some respected Muslim clerics and scholars, who had met recently at Deoband, had done. One must welcome their initiative in condemning terrorism. That is also what some activists against terrorism under Mr.Francois Gautier, a well-known French journalist living in India for many years, have been doing. Whereas the appeal of the Deobandi congregation was addressed to the Muslim community specifically, the anti-terrorism campaign of Gautier and his small, but devoted band of associates is addressed to all people----whatever be their nationality, religion, ethnicity etc. It seeks to educate them not only on the evils of terrorism, but also on the mental origin of it.

8. To understand the mental origin of the jihadi terrorism emanating from Pakistan, it is important to identify not only their present-day mentors such as bin Laden, the Pakistani jihadi leaders and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), but also their historical idols. Aurangzeb is one of their topmost historical idols. It is important to educate the people of India on the real nature of Aurangzeb, his policies and actions so that they do not get easily carried away by the way Aurangzeb's rule is depicted by the jihadi terrorists.

9. An exhibition organised by Gautier and his associates as part of this education process had a successful run in New Delhi, Pune and Bangalore. In Pune, over 100,000 people visited it. In none of these places, did the members of the local Muslim community view the exhibition as anti-Muslim or anti-Islam. Unfortunately, some members of the community in Chennai viewed it as anti-Muslim and demanded that the exhibition be discontinued. This has reportedly been done on the advice of the Police.

10. I had attended the inauguration of the exhibition on the opening day (March 3,2008) and spoke on the importance of understanding the pernicious ideas about Aurangzeb being spread by Pakistani jihadi organisations. I had seen all the exhibits before the inauguration and did not find any of them of a provocative nature. More than the paintings, what was so eloquent in the exhibition was the collection of scanned copies of the various orders issued by Aurangzeb during his rule. These documents were authentic and the scanned copies were made over a period of three years from a Mughul Archive in Rajasthan which, I was told, contain a wealth of documents relating to the Mughul period.

11. One of the contentions of those, who protested against the exhibition, was that raking up the past would create a communal divide in Tamil Nadu, which has been relatively free of it.One of the lessons of history has been that remaining silent on unpleasant periods in history leads to a repetition of such unpleasant experiences. That is why Western school children are taught about the evils of rulers like Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin etc. That is why the Jewish people keep reminding themselves and the rest of the world about the holocaust. That was why some years ago Jean-Marie Le Pen, the French rightist leader, was severely criticised for denying the reality of the holocaust.

12. When we deny harsh truths of history, we are only playing into the hands of jihadi terrorists, who see themselves as the Aurangzebs of today.

13. The Annexure gives extracts from what foreign scholars, including scholars in Pakistan itself, have been saying on this subject of what a Pakistani scholar described as a creation of myths regarding the real nature of Muslim rule.When Pakistanis have themselves started realising the damage done to their society and country by this myth-making, leaders of our Muslim community should refrain from starting a similar myth-making exercise in India about the past.(8-3-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

ANNEXURE

From: The Columbia Encyclopedia, Sixth Edition Date: 2007

"Aurangzeb or Aurangzib , 1618-1707, Mughal emperor of India (1658-1707), son and successor of Shah Jahan . He served (1636-44, 1653-58) as viceroy of the Deccan but was constantly at odds with his father and his eldest brother, Dara Shikoh, the heir apparent. When Shah Jahan fell ill in 1658, Aurangzeb seized the opportunity to fight and defeat Dara and two other brothers in a battle for succession. He imprisoned his father for life and ascended the throne at Agra with the reign title Alamgir [world-shaker]. A scholarly, austere man, devoted to Islam, he persecuted the Hindus, destroying their temples and monuments. He executed the guru of the Sikhs (see Sikhism ) when he refused to embrace Islam. Although the Mughal empire reached its greatest extent under Aurangzeb, it was also fatally weakened by revolts of the Sikhs, Rajputs, and Jats in the north and the rebellion of the Marathas in the Deccan. From 1682, Aurangzeb concentrated all his energies on crushing the Marathas, but his costly campaigns were only temporarily successful and further weakened his authority in the north. The Mughal empire fell apart soon after his death."

2.FROM THE WIKIPEDIA

"Pakistan Studies departments and curricula have been criticized by academics and scholars in Pakistan and the West, for propagating jingoist and irredentist beliefs about Pakistan's history and culture. While no scholar denies Pakistan's rich historical and cultural diversity, the Pakistan Studies groups are criticized for being insufficiently objective in its portrayal, particularly with regards to political Islam and the treatment of minorities such as Hindus and Christians in the country. Irredentism is manifested through claims of "eternal Pakistan" (despite the country being created from British India only in 1947), narrow and sectarian interpretation of Islam, downplaying the tolerant aspects of the religion and focusing on Islamic Fundamentalist interpretations (such as all banking being un-Islamic), and making accusations of dual loyalty on minority Hindus and Christians in Pakistan.[1] One survey even found out that Pakistan Studies textbooks include derogatory remarks against minority religious groups, and the generalized teaching of religious intolerance as acceptable.The Pakistan Studies textbooks have been used as locations to articulate the hatred that Pakistani policy makers have attempted to inculcate towards their Hindu citizens as well as Hindus in India.

"A study by Nayyar & Salim concluded in 2003 that there is an increasing trend where children are taught Pakistan Studies as a replacement for the teaching of history and geography as full fledged disciplines. Previously, children were taught the very early pre-Islamic history of South Asia and its contribution to rich cultural diversity of modern-day Pakistan.This long historical perspective of Pakistan is absent these Pakistan Studies textbooks. Instead, children are now taught that the history of Pakistan starts from the day the first Muslim set foot in India. The study reported that the textbooks also had a lot of gender-biased stereotypes and other perspectives that "encourage prejudice, bigotry and discrimination towards fellow Pakistanis and other nations, especially against religious minorities, as well as the omission of concepts ... that could encourage critical self awareness among students”.

"According to Ayesha Jalal, "Pakistan's history textbooks amongst the best available sources for assessing the nexus between power and bigotry in creative imaginings of a national past." She points out authors whose "expansive pan- Islamic imaginings" detect the beginnings of Pakistan in the birth of Islam on the Arabian pensinsula. M.Ikram Rabbani and Monawwar Ali Sayyid's An Introduction to Pakistan Studies, a compulsory reading for first and second year college students studying for an F.A degree in history, begins with a chapter on the establishment of Pakistan based on a concept of Islamic sovereignty. "Allah alone is sovereign and the 'ruler of the Islamic State does not possess any authority of his own'. The coming of Islam to the Indian subcontinent was a 'blessing' since Hinduism was based on an 'unethical caste system'." M.D.Zafar's A Text Book of Pakistan Studies claims that Pakistan "came to be established for the first time when the Arabs under Mohammad bin Qasim occupied Sind and Multan'; by the thirteenth century 'Pakistan had spread to include the whole of Northern India and Bengal' and then under the Khiljis, Pakistan moved further south-ward to include a greater part of Central India and the Deccan'. [...] The spirit of Pakistan asserted itself', and under Aurangzeb the 'Pakistan spirit gathered in strength'; his death 'weakened the Pakistan spirit'."

"Jalal points out that even an acclaimed scholar like Jamil Jalibi questions the validity of a national history that seeks to "claim Pakistan's pre-Islamic past" in an attempt to compete with India's historic antiquity. K.Ali's two volume history designed for B.A students traces the pre-history of the 'Indo-Pakistan' subcontinent to the paleolithic age and consistently refers to the post-1947 frontiers of Pakistan while discussing the Dravidians and the Aryans.

"According to some author like Amar Jaleel "What is being taught to our children in the name of history and Pakistan Studies in schools is far from the truth" .

"Jalal points out the consistent religious bias in Pakistan Studies textbooks. "While 'the houses of the Muslims were more spacious, airy and open to light' that of the Hindus had 'small rooms, verandahs and less space open to sky [sic]' which 'shows the secret and exclusive attitude of Hindu mind [sic]'. For students who have had no contact with Hindus both statements, differences in style notwithstanding, can easily fuel a form of inverted bigotry. The more so since they are given abundant 'evidence' to underline the invidiousness of Hindu majoritarianism."

"used to articulate the hatred that Pakistani policy-makers have attempted to inculcate towards the Hindus. Government-issued textbooks teach students that Hindus are backward and superstitious, and given a chance, they would assert their power over the weak, especially, Muslims, depriving them of education by pouring molten lead in their ears. The report adds that in these textbooks, students are taught that "Islam brought peace, equality, and justice to the subcontinent, to check the sinister ways of Hindus." The report adds that "In Pakistani textbooks “Hindus” rarely appears in a sentence without adjective such as politically astute, sly, or manipulative."

"A new curriculum for Pakistan Studies is proposed to be implemented from the academic year 2007. According to reports the government has made "drastic changes" in the new Pakistan Studies curriculum, including new chapters on the Musharraf government’s economic and privatisation policies and “enlightened moderation”, and less biased explanations of the Two-Nation Theory and Partition. According to the report, the new National Curriculum for Pakistan Studies for grades IX and X explains the Two-Nation Theory and Pakistan’s ideology “with specific reference to the economic and social deprivation of Muslims in India”. According to an education ministry official quoted in the report, “An effort has been made to exclude all such material that promotes prejudice against the non-Muslims of pre-partition India.”

"An earlier attempt to reform the curriculum failed in 2003, because of resistance by religious parties. The 2003 protests ultimately resulted in the removal of the education minister Zubeda Jalal. Pakistan's current education minister, ex-ISI director general Lt Gen (r) Javed Ashraf Qazi has called the anti-Hindu parts of the curriculum silly, and that "it was time to acknowledge realities instead of inciting hatred."


3.Pakistan's missile symbolism ( A commentary broadcast the BBC by Zaffar Abbas,its correspondent in Islamabad)

Pakistani officials say the successful test-firing of three of its surface-to-surface missiles in the last few days has confirmed the country's capability to strike deep inside enemy territory in the event of a war.

Interestingly, these tests have not only demonstrated the effectiveness of Pakistan's missile technology; the names given to these missiles are full of symbolism.

They suggest that Pakistan relates the present conflict in South Asia to the conflicts of the mediaeval period when Muslim warriors from Afghanistan frequently invaded India.

Ghauri, Ghaznavi, Abdali - these are the three ballistic missiles Pakistan test-fired in the last week.

But these are also names of three prominent Muslim warlords, or conquerors, who invaded India from Afghanistan between the 11th and 18th centuries in an attempt to expand their empires.

Historical histrionics

The medium-range Ghauri missile is Pakistan's answer to India's Prithvi missile, and here the symbolism is perhaps most interesting.
Muhammad Ghauri was a powerful Afghan warlord who in the 12th century had two fierce battles with the Hindu ruler of northern India, Prithviraj Chouhan.
Ghauri was defeated in the first battle and later on, he returned with a bigger army to achieve a convincing victory.

Although India insists that the name Prithvi given to its missile means "earth" and has nothing to do with any Hindu ruler of the past, Pakistan wants the world to believe otherwise.

Battle fetish

The other two missiles Pakistan tested during the week are also named after 11th and 18th-century Afghan conquerors, Mehmood Ghaznavi and Ahmed Shah Abdali.

Ghaznavi is described in history books as a temple-destroyer who attacked India 17 times.

Pakistan has never given any specific reason for naming these missiles after such historical figures.

But the symbolism is a clear reflection of the official mindset in the country.
It shows that for Islamabad, the present conflict with India is a continuation of the battles of the past between people described in Pakistani history books as just Muslim invaders and several of India's cruel Hindu emperors.


4.An article carried by the "Dawn" of Karachi on March 27,2005
The myth of history

By Prof Shahida Kazi

History is a discipline that has never been taken seriously by anyone in Pakistan. As a result, the subject has been distorted in such a way that many a fabricated tale has become part of our collective consciousness
DOES mythology have anything to do with history? Is mythology synonymous with history? Or is history mythology?

Admittedly, the line between the two is a very fine one. From time immemorial, man has always been in search of his roots. He has also been trying to find a real and tangible basis for the legends of ancient days ? legends that have become a part of our collective consciousness. As a result, we witness the quest for proving the existence of King Arthur, the search for whereabouts of the city of Troy, and many expeditions organized to locate the exact site of the landing of Noah?s Ark.

During the 60s and the 70s, there was a worldwide movement to prove that the gods of ancient mythologies did actually exist; they came from distant galaxies; and that mankind owed all its progress to such alien superheroes. Several books were written on the subject.

We, in Pakistan, are a breed apart. Lacking a proper mythology like most other races, we have created our own, populated by a whole pantheon of superheroes who have a wide range of heroic exploits to their credit.

But the difference is that these superheroes, instead of being a part of a remote and prehistoric period, belong very much to our own times. A seemingly veritable mythology has been created around these heroes, their persona and their achievements, which is drummed into the heads of our children from the time they start going to school. So deep is this indoctrination that any attempt to uncover the facts or reveal the truth is considered nothing less than blasphemous.

Here are some of the most common myths:

Myth 1

Our history begins from 712AD, when Mohammad bin Qasim arrived in the subcontinent and conquered the port of Debal.

Take any social studies or Pakistan studies book, it starts with Mohammad bin Qasim. What was there before his arrival? Yes, cruel and despotic Hindu kings like Raja Dahir and the oppressed and uncivilized populace anxiously waiting for a "liberator" to free them from the clutches of such cruel kings. And when the liberator came, he was welcomed with open arms and the grateful people converted to Islam en mass.

Did it really happen? This version of our history conveniently forgets that the area where our country is situated has had a long and glorious history of 6,000 years. Forget Moenjo Daro. We do not know enough about it. But recorded history tells us that before Mohammad Bin Qasim, this area, roughly encompassing Sindh, Punjab and some parts of the NWFP, was ruled by no less than 12 different dynasties from different parts of the world, including the Persians (during the Achamaenian period), the Greeks comprising the Bactrians, Scthians and Parthians, the Kushanas from China, and the Huns (of Attila fame) who also came from China, besides a number of Hindu dynasties including great rulers like Chandragupta Maurya and Asoka.

During the Gandhara period, this region had the distinction of being home to one of the biggest and most important universities of the world at our very own Taxila. We used to be highly civilized, well-educated, prosperous, creative and economically productive people, and many countries benefited a lot from us, intellectually as well as economically. This is something we better not forget. But do we tell this to our children? No. And so the myth continues from generation to generation.

Myth 2

Mohammad Bin Qasim came to India to help oppressed widows and orphan girls.

Because of our blissful ignorance of history, we don't know, or don't bother to know, that this period was the age of expansion of the Islamic empire. The Arabs had conquered a large portion of the world, comprising the entire Middle East, Persia, North Africa and Spain. Therefore, it defies logic that they would not seek to conquer India, the land of legendary treasures.

In fact, the Arabs had sent their first expedition to India during Hazrat Umar Farooq's tenure. A subsequent expedition had come to Makran during Hazrat Usman's rule. But they had been unsuccessful in making any in-roads into the region. Later on, following the refusal of the king to give compensation for the ships captured by pirates (which incidentally included eight ships full of treasures from Sri Lanka, and not just women and girls), two expeditions had already been sent to India, but they proved unsuccessful. It was the third expedition brought by Mohammad Bin Qasim which succeeded in capturing Sindh, from Mansura to Multan. However, because of the Arabs' internal dissension and political infighting, Sindh remained a neglected outpost of the Arab empire, and soon reverted to local kings.

Myth 3

The myth of the idol-breaker.

Mahmood Ghaznavi, the great son of Islam and idol-breaker par excellence, took upon himself to destroy idols all over India and spread Islam in the subcontinent.

Mahmud, who came from neighbouring Ghazni, Central Asia, invaded India no less than 17 times. But except Punjab, he made no attempt to conquer any other part of the country or to try and consolidate his rule over the rest of India. In fact, the only thing that attracted him was the treasures of India, gold and precious stones, of which he took care and carried back home a considerable amount every time he raided the country. Temples in India were a repository of large amounts of treasure at the time, as were the churches in Europe, hence his special interest in temples and idols.

Contrary to popular belief, it was not the kings, the Central Asian sultans who ruled for over 300 years and the Mughals who ruled for another 300 years, who brought Islam to the subcontinent. That work was accomplished by the Sufi Sheikhs who came to India mainly to escape persecution from the fundamentalists back home, and who, through their high-mindedness, love for humanity, compassion, tolerance and simple living won the hearts of the people of all religions.

Myth 4

The myth of the cap-stitcher.

Of all the kings who have ruled the subcontinent, the one singled out for greatest praise in our text books is Aurangzeb, the last of the great Mughals. Baber built the empire; Humayun lost it and got it back; Akbar expanded and consolidated it; Jahangir was known for his sense of justice; Shahjehan for his magnificent buildings. But it is Aurangzeb, known as a pious man, who grabs the most attention. The prevalent myth is that he did not spend money from the treasury for his personal needs, but fulfilled them by stitching caps and copying out the Holy Quran. Is there any real need for discussing this assertion? Anyone who's least bit familiar with the Mughal lifestyle would know how expensive it was to maintain their dozens of palaces. The Mughals used to have many wives, children, courtiers, concubines and slaves who would be present in each palace, whose needs had to be met. Could such expenses be met by stitching caps? And even if the king was stitching caps, would people buy them and use them as ordinary caps? Would they not pay exorbitant prices for them and keep them as heirlooms? Would a king, whose focus had to be on military threats surrounding him from all sides and on the need to save and consolidate a huge empire, have the time and leisure to sit and stitch caps? Let's not forget that the person we are referring to as a pious Muslim was the same who became king after he imprisoned his own father in a cell in his palace and killed all his brothers to prevent them from taking over the throne.

Myth 5

It was the Muslims who were responsible for the war of 1857; and it was the Muslims who bore the brunt of persecution in the aftermath of the war, while the Hindus were natural collaborators of the British.

It is true that more Muslim regiments than Hindu rose up against the British in 1857. But the Hindus also played a major role in the battle (the courageous Rani of Jhansi is a prime example); and if Muslim soldiers were inflamed by the rumour that the cartridges were laced with pig fat, in the case of Hindus, the rumour was that it was cow fat. And a large number of Muslims remained loyal to the British to the very end. (The most illustrious of them being Sir Syed Ahmed Khan.)

Furthermore, the Muslims did not lose their empire after 1857. The British had already become masters of most of India before that time, having grasped vast territories from both Hindu and Muslim rulers through guile and subterfuge.
The Mughal emperor at the time was a ruler in name only; his jurisdiction did not extend beyond Delhi. After 1857, the Hindus prospered, because they were clever enough to acquire modern education, learn the English language, and take to trade and commerce. The Muslims were only land owners, wedded to the dreams of the past pomp and glory, and when their lands were taken away, they were left with nothing; their madressah education and proficiency in Persian proved to be of no help. As a matter of fact, it was a hindrance in such changing times.

Myth 6

The Muslims were in the forefront of the struggle against the British and were singled out for unfair treatment by the latter.

Not at all. In fact, the first gift given to the Muslims by the British was in 1905 in the form of partition of Bengal (later revoked in 1911). The Shimla delegation of 1906 has rightly been called a command performance; the Muslims were assured by the viceroy of separate electorates and weightage as soon as their leaders asked for them. After that, the Muslim League came into being, established by pro-British stalwarts like the Aga Khan, Justice Amir Ali, some other nawabs and feudal lords. And the first objective of the Muslim League manifesto read: "To promote feelings of loyalty to the British government."
The Muslim League never carried out any agitation against the British. The only time the Muslims agitated was during the Khilafat Movement in the early 20s, led by the Ali brothers and other radical leaders. Not a single Muslim League leader, including the Quaid-i-Azam, ever went to jail. It was the Congress which continued the anti-British non-violent and non-cooperation movement in the 30s and 40s, including the famous "Quit India" movement, while Muslim League leaders continued to denounce such movements and exhorted their followers not to take part in them.

Myth 7

The Muslim League was the only representative body of the Muslims.

It is an incontrovertible fact that it was only after 1940 that the Muslim League established itself as a popular party among the Muslims. Prior to that, as evident in the 1937 elections, the Muslim League did not succeed in forming the government in any of the Muslim majority provinces. In those elections, out of the total of 482 Muslim seats, the Muslim League won only 103 (less than one-fourth of the total). Other seats went either to Congress Muslims or to nationalist parties such as the Punjab Unionist Party, the Sind Unionist Party and the Krishak Proja Party of Bengal.

Myth 8

Allama Iqbal was the first person to come up with the idea of a separate Muslim state.

This is one of the most deeply embedded myths in our country and the one which has been propagated by all governments. In fact, the idea that Muslim majority provinces of the north-west formed a natural group and should be considered a single bloc had been mooted by the British as far back as 1858 and freely discussed in various newspaper articles and on political platforms. Several variations of the idea had come from important public personalities, including British, Muslims and some Hindus. By the time Allama Iqbal gave his famous speech in 1930, the idea had been put forward at least 64 times. So, Iqbal voiced something which was already there, and was not an original dream. After his speech at Allahbad was reported, Allama Iqbal published a retraction in a British newspaper that he had not been talking of a separate Muslim sate, but only of a Muslim bloc within the Indian federation.

Myth 9

The Pakistan Resolution envisaged a single Muslim state.

The fact is that none of the proposals regarding the Muslim bloc mooted by different individuals or parties had included East Bengal in it. The emphasis had always been on north-western provinces, which shared common frontiers, while other Muslim majority states, such as Bengal and Hyderabad, were envisaged as separate blocs. So, it was in the Pakistan Resolution. The resolution reads: ?The areas in which the Muslims are numerically in a majority as in the north-western and eastern zones of India should be grouped to constitute independent states, in which the constituent units shall be autonomous and sovereign.

Leaving aside the poor and ambiguous drafting of the entire resolution, the part about states (in plural) is very clear. It was only in 1946, at a convention of the Muslim League legislators in Delhi, that the original resolution was amended, which was adopted at a general Muslim League session and the objective became a single state.

Myth 10

March 23, 1940 is celebrated because the Pakistan Resolution was adopted on that day. The fact of the matter is that the Pakistan Resolution was only introduced on March 23 and was finally adopted on March 24 (the second and final day of the session).

As to why we celebrate March 23 is another story altogether. The day was never celebrated before 1956. It was first celebrated that year as the Republic Day to mark the passage of the first constitution and Pakistan?s emergence as a truly independent republic. It had the same importance for us as January 26 for India. But when Gen Ayub abrogated the constitution and established martial law in 1958, he was faced with a dilemma. He could not let the country celebrate a day commemorating the constitution that he had himself torn apart, nor could he cancel the celebration altogether. A way-out was found by keeping the celebration, but giving it another name: the Pakistan Resolution Day.


Myth 11

It was Ghulam Muhammad who created imbalance of power between the prime minister and head of state, and it was he who sought to establish the supremacy of the governor-general over the prime minister and parliament.

When Pakistan came into being, the British government?s India Act of 1935 was adopted as the working constitution. And it was the Quaid-i-Azam himself who introduced certain amendments to the act to make the governor-general the supreme authority. It was under these powers that the Quaid-i-Azam dismissed the government of Dr Khan Sahib in the NWFP in August 1947 and that of Mr Ayub Khuhro in Sindh in 1948.

Besides being governor-general, the Quaid-i-Azam also continued as president of the Muslim League and president of the Constituent Assembly.

It was these same powers under which Mr Daultana?s government was dismissed in Punjab in 1949 by Khawaja Nazimuddin, who himself was dismissed as prime minister in 1953 by Ghulam Mohammad.

However, in 1954, a move was started by members of the then Constituent Assembly to table an amendment to the act, taking away excessive powers of the governor-general. It was this move which provoked the governor-general, Ghulam Mohammad, to dismiss the Constituent Assembly in 1954, and thereby change the course of Pakistan?s history.

These are some of the myths that have been drummed into our heads from childhood and have become part of our consciousness. There are scores more, pervading our everyday life. And there are many unanswered questions such as:
What is Pakistan's ideology and when was the term first coined? (It was never heard of before 1907.)? Why was Gandhi murdered? (He was supposedly guarding Pakistan's interest.)? What is the truth about the so-called traitors, Shaikh Mujeeb, Wali Khan, and G.M. Syed?? What caused the break-away of East Pakistan?? Why was Bhutto put to death?? Are all our politicians corrupt and self-serving?? Why does our history repeat itself after every 10 years?
The answers to all these questions require a thorough study of history, not mythology. But history unfortunately is a discipline that has never been taken seriously by anyone in our country. It's time things changed.
The myth of history -DAWN Magazine; March 27, 2005

PAKISTAN: NEW DAWN OR NEW NIGHTMARE?

B.RAMAN

There has been a delay in Government formation in Pakistan due to the resistance faced by Mr.Asif Ali Zardari from the loyalists of theBhutto family to his efforts to have the claims of Maqdoom Amin Fahim, Vice-Chairman of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), excluded fromconsideration for the post of Prime Minister in favour of Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, who was the Commerce Minister of Mrs.Benazir Bhuttoduring her second term as the Prime Minister (1993-96) and was the Party's Secretary-General. .

2. Chaudhury Mukhtar, reputed to be the richest industrialist of Pakistan ( he owns a shoe-manufacturing empire and his family allegedlymonopolises the leather business in Pakistan) , has been a crony of Zardari for many years. He was widely alleged to be Zardari's front-manin all his commission-making deals when Benazir was the Prime Minister and was known to be fierce in his loyalty to Zardari. When theNawaz Sharif Government, which came to power in 1996, sought to have Zardari harassed on various charges relating to allegations ofcorruption and the death in police firing in September 1996 of Murtaza Ali Bhutto, the younger brother of Benazir and claimant to the post ofVice-Chairman of the PPP, Mukhtar refused to betray Zardari. He even spent some years in jail on a charge of alleged irregularities in theimplementation of the textiles policy when he was the Commerce Minister. The charge could not be proved and he had to be released bythe Musharraf Government.

3. As Commerce Minister, Chaudhury Mukhtar was reputed to be well-disposed towards India and the US and had many friends among thesenior Generals of the Pakistan Army. He was known as a pragmatist in foreign policy matters.It was he, who recommended to Benazir thatPakistan should emulate China in its relations with India by not allowing the pending differences over the future of Kashmir come in the wayof normal economic relations. Benazir was inclined to accept his advice, but ultimately decided not to do so due to strong opposition fromthe Pakistan Foreign Office and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to any delinking of the issue of economic relations from the Kashmirissue.

4.According to well-informed sources, it was he, who prevailed upon Benazir and Zardari last year to make a deal with President PervezMusharraf with the blessings of the US in order to let the corruption charges against them be lifted so that they could come back andresume their political activities. It was reportedly under his advice that Benazir agreed to work with Musharraf as the President provided hegave up the additional post of the Chief of the Army Staff and agreed to the removal of the power of the President to dismiss the electedPrime Minister and National Assembly. Musharraf agreed to the first demand, but not to the second.

5. Ahmed Mukhtar continues to be of the view even after the assassination of Benazir that the PPP should not associate itself with any moveto force the exit of Musharraf from power and that since Musharraf seems to enjoy the confidence of the US despite his mixed track-recordin the fight against Al Qaeda, the PPP should not embarrass the US by rocking the boat for Musharraf. He is of the view that Pakistan'seconomy could again face serious difficulties as it did in the 1990s if the flow of economic assistance from the US stopped or declined.

6. An examination of the recent pronouncements and actions of Zardari would indicate that he is in broad agreement with the policydirection suggested by Mukhtar. When Zardari originally accepted the policy advice of Mukhtar, he was confident that helped by thesympathy wave caused by the assassination of Benazir, the PPP would emerge as a party with an absolute majority of its own so that it didnot have to depend on other parties for forming the Government.

7. This has not happened. It has emerged as the largest single party, but without a majority of its own. It can form a Government only withthe support of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif and the Awami National Party (ANP) of the North-West FrontierProvince (NWFP) or the PML (Qaide-Azam), a pro-Musharraf party, and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which is equallypro-Musharraf. In the recent elections, only 40 per cent of the popular votes went to pro-Musharraf candidates.Sixty per cent of the popularvotes went to candidates, who were critical of him. Under this circumstance, Zardari has no other option but to rely on the PML (N) andANP--- at least for the time being.

8.The ANP, despite its strong dislike of Musharraf and opposition to his co-operation with the US in its so-called war against terrorism, isprepared to go along with the PPP's policy of at least temporary accommodation with Musharraf. But the PML (N) is not . It is determined toforce a confrontation with Musharraf on issues such as the reinstatemnent of the judges sacked by him and removing the variousamendments incorporated by him in the Constitution when he had preoclaimed an emergency in November,2007. It is also determined tomodify the counter-terrorism policy as followed by Musharraf, even at the risk of displeasing the US.Nawaz Sharif, also a businessman likeMukhtar, does not agree with his view that lack of co-operation with the US and the consequent decline or discontinuance in the USeconomic assistance would seriously damage the economy.

9.Thus, Zardari finds himself in a dilemma. He wants to work together with Musharraf under mutually agreed conditions. He wants to bereceptive to US concerns on the terrorism issue.But his dependence on the PML (N) would make this difficult. He foresees a confrontationwith Nawaz Sharif in the short term after the PPP has been in power for a few months, though not immediately. He wants to prepare himselffor that confrontation and feels that Mukhtar would be the right person as the Prime Minister to keep the PML (N) under control. If Zardaridoes not agree to rock the boat for Musharraf, Nawaz might rock the boat for Zardari. That is his fear. Only a Punjabi can check-mateanother Punjabi. Only a businessman can check-mate another businessman. That is his calculation.

10. Nominating a Punjabi as the Prime Minister will be disliked by the rural masses of Sindh, who have overwhelmingly voted for the PPP andremained loyal to Benazir. They look upon Mukhtar as Zardari's man and Amin Fahim as Benazir's man. Amin Fahim has had a relativelyclean public image. He was fiercely loyal to Benazir and rejected Musharraf's offer of Prime Ministership after the 2002 elections if heresigned from the PPP. He comes from a Sindhi family with a formidable reputation in rural Sindh. His father was a founding member of thePPP. They view Zardari's reported attempts to bring in Mukhtar or some other Punjabi loyal to him as meant to marginalise the influence ofthe Bhutto loyalists in the party. They do not look upon Zardari as the natural leader of the PPP after the death of his wife. They rather lookupon him as an usurper.

11. If Zardari overrides their feelings in favour of Amin Fahim and has Mukhtar or some other Punjabi nominated as the Prime Minister, thediscipline in the party is likely to be weakened, with the danger of a Sindhi-Punjabi divide emerging ultimately. After the assassination ofBenazir, the riots in rural Sindh took an anti-Punjabi direction because the Sindhi cadres of the PPP blamed the Punjabi administration forfailing to protect her.

12. There is another reason why Zardari feels uncomfortable with Fahim. Zardari describes himself as Pakistan's Sonia Gandhi--- a leaderand guide of the party, who does not aspire to the office of Prime Minister. He wants as Prime Minister someone, who will keep his influenceparamount. He is worried that Fahim may turn out to be Pakistan's Narasimha Rao. After becoming the Prime Minister, he might try to have Zardari and his son marginalised.

13. Whoever ultimately takes over as the Prime Minister will have to depend for his survival not only on the Army, but also on Al Qaeda andother jihadi terrorists. They look upon the PPP as apostate and the ANP as even a greater apostate. They dislike the PPP as intensely asthey dislike Musharraf because of its pro-US image and Benazir's support to the commando action in the Lal Masjid in July last. They alsolook upon the PPP as the Trojan Horse of the Shias. They allege that Benazir was a Shia and that so is Zardari. Their dislike for the ANP isbecause of its secular and leftist image. The jihadis are determined to see that the PPP-ANP combine will not work ----neither in the NWFPnor in Islamabad. A further surge in jihadi terrorism is to be expected.

14. In a recent article in "The Hindu", Ms. Malini Parthasarathi, the well-known analyst, described the post-election scenario in Pakistan asmarking a new dawn for the country. A new dawn or a new nightmare? Let us keep our fingers crossed. (7-3-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

MUSHARRAF: CO-HABITATION OR EXIT?

B.RAMAN

The expression co-habitation came into vogue in France when the late Francois Mitterrand, the leader of the French Socialist Party, was thePresident in the 1980s. In the elections to the French National Assembly held when he was the President, his party was badly defeated andthe Gaullists under Jacques Chirac won a majority.

2. Mitterrand chose to interpret the results as not reflecting on his presidency and he, as the President, and Chirac, as the Prime Minister,decided to co-habit. Under the French Constitution, the President is not just a figure-head. He has more powers than the British PrimeMinister, but less than the US President. All powers relating to decision-making in respect of foreign policy and national security areexercised by the President who chairs the Cabinet meetings. The Prime Minister exercises all powers relating to domestic policy. Theco-habitation arrangement between Mitterrand and Chirac worked with some periodic tensions, though.

3. The 1973 Pakistani Constitution, which the late Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto gave to Pakistan, resembled the Indian Constitution with all powers inthe hands of the Prime Minister and with the President reduced to a figurehead. Before appointing Mohammad Khan Junejo as the PrimeMinister, Gen.Zia-ul-Haq changed this to give the President all the powers relating to foreign policy and national security and the power todismiss the Prime Minister. He used this power to dismiss Junejo in 1988 when differences developed between the two over the handling ofthe Afghan proximity attacks in Geneva and over the enquiry into a serious explosion in an arms and ammunition storage depot of the Armyand the Inter-Services Intelligence at Ojehri near Islamabad.

4. President Ghulam Ishaq Khan use this power against Benazir Bhutto in 1990 and Nawaz Sharif in 1993. President Farooq Leghari of thePakistan People's Party, who developed differences with Benazir, used this power to dismiss her in 1996 following allegations of corruptionagainst Asif Zardari and his interference in the administration. The mystery surrounding the death of Murtaza Ali Bhutto, her youngerbrother, in police firing in Karachi in September,1996, after he returned to Karachi from Islamabad where he had allegedly a fierce quarrelwith Zardari and Benazir over dinner regarding his right to be nominated as the Vice-Chairman of the Pakistan People's Party, alsocontributed to Leghari's dismissal of Benazir. The cases filed against Asif Zardari at the instance of Leghari are sub-judice.

5. Nawaz Sharif, whose party won a two-thirds majority in the 1996 elections, used this majority to abolish the power of the President todismiss the elected Prime Minister.After seizing power in October,1999,Pervez Musharraf had this power restored in the Constitution. Healso instituted the National Security Council chaired by the President, and transferred to the President all powers relating todecision-making in foreign policy and national security matters. The Constitution, as repeatedly re-cast by Musharraf, resembles more theFrench than the Indian Constitution. Musharraf, therefore, need not necessarily resign because his opponents or critics have secured amajority in the elections.

6. Unless and until the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif are able to have theConstitutional amendments removed, Musharraf will continue to exercise the power of dismissal of the Prime Minister and handle allimportant decision-making in foreign policy and national security matters. That is why when Benazir was negotiating with Musharraf shewas demanding the abolition of the power of the President to dismiss the elected Prime Minister and of the NSC. Musharraf rejected both these demands.

7. A major point of difference between the PPP and the PML (N) related to Nawaz's demand for the reinstatement of Chief Justic IftikharAhmed Chaudhury, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, removed by Musharraf. Benazir found it difficult to support this demand because,in her view, the dismissed Chief Justice was taking undue interest in the expeditious disposal of the case relating to the alleged murder ofMurtaza Bhutto, which has been going on for 12 years with frequent adjournments like the case relating to the kidnapping and murder ofDaniel Pearl, the US journalist by pro-Al Qaeda elements in the beginning of 2002.

8. The national reconciliatuion orders which Musharraf issued last year under an understanding reached with Benazir at the instance of theUS related to all corruption-related cases, but not to the case under the Anti-Terrorism Act under which Nawaz stands convicted and thetrial relating to the death of Murtaza Bhutto. Nawaz is keen to have the dismissed Chief Justice reinstated because firstly, he thinks he willhave the re-election of Musharraf as the President set aside, which Nawaz cannot achieve without a two-thirds majority in the NationalAssembly, and, secondly, he hopes that the reinstated Chief Justice will have his own conviction under the Anti-Terrorism Act set aside,thereby enabling him to be the Prime Minister. Till his conviction is set aside, he cannot be the Prime Minister.

9. The two most liked leaders in the eyes of the Army and the US are Maqdoom Amin Fahim, the Vice-Chairman of the PPP, who used to bethe Minister For Petroleum under Benazir Bhutto during her second tenure as the Prime Minister, and Shahbaz Sharif, the younger brother ofNawaz Sharif. Amin Fahim was immensely liked by the US oil companies, particularly UNOCAL. When the UNOCAL hosted a dinner to the thenPresident of Turkmenistan in New York, Benazir deputed him to attend the dinner. After the elections of 2002, Amin Fahim, who is close toMusharraf, was Musharraf's first choice as the Prime Minister. Fahim declined the offer and refused to betray Benazir. Shahbaz Sharif wasvery close the US State Department. Amin Fahim and Shahbaz Sharif are both liked by the Punjabi Generals and the US, who strongly dislikeAsiz Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. One of the reasons for the PPP not doing as well in Southern Punjab as it was expected is the unpopularityof Zardari among the Punjabis.

10. The election results, which are still coming in, have highlighted an interesting outcome. No party has acquired a majority on its own. ThePPP has emerged as the largest single party and will, therefore, have the right to be called first to attempt to form a Government. It willhave two options--- either form the government in co-operation with the PML (N) or in co-operation with PML (Qaide Azam) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Altaf Hussain---both supporters of Musharraf. If Nawaz Sharif strikes a hard bargain by demanding there-instatement of the sacked Chief Justice, Zardari might be reluctant to agree to it. On the contrary, the PML (QA) is unlikely to impose anyconditions to co-operate with the PPP. The only conditions which the MQM might impose are the recognition of its importance in anyGovernment formed in Sindh. A major difficulty for the PPP in co-operating with the PML (QA) would be the presence of some remnants ofthe Zia ul-Haq regime in it. It strongly suspects that these remnants must have played a role in the assassination of Benazir.

11. The US and other Western countries are interested in Musharraf continuing as the President. They don't trust Nawaz Sharif because ofhis links with the Jamaat-e-Islami of Qazi Hussain Ahmed. The Jamaat-e-Islami boycotted the elections, but its cadres campaigned forNawaz's Party in Punjab and the North-West Frontier Province. They would like to work for a co-habitation arrangement with Musharraf asthe President and Amin Fahim or Shahbaz Sharif as the Prime Minister. Will they succeed or will Musharraf have to quit? The answer to thisquestion lies as much in Washington DC as in Islamabad. Musharraf still has some wriggle room, if he wants to exercise it. Will he wriggle or call it quits? (19-2-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd) , Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

PAKISTAN: WHERE THEY STAND ON ISSUES OF INTEREST TO INDIA B.RAMAN

The final results of the Pakistani elections are yet to emerge. However, the unofficial indications till now are that the Pakistan People'sParty (PPP) of Mr.Asif Zardari, the Pakistan Muslim League of Mr.Nawaz Sharif (PML(N) ), the Muittahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Mr.AltafHussain and the Awami National Party (ANP) of Mr.Afsandyar Wali Khan have been doing well. They are likely to play an important role in theGovernment formation and in policy-making---the PPP and the PML (N) at the national level and the other two at the provincial levels---theMQM in Sindh and the ANP in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). Of these, the MQM is closely identified with President PervezMusharraf, while the other three are strong critics of him.

2.What was the stand of these four parties on various national security issues of interest to India during the election campaign? Their views as expressed by them are given below. This is based on a collation by Mr.Qudssia Akhlaque carried by the "News", the daily of Pakistan, intwo parts on February 17 and 18,2008.He posed the questions on various national security and foreign policy issues, among others, to AsifAli Zardari, Nawaz Sharif, MQM Deputy Convener Dr. Farooq Sattar, and Afsandyar Wali Khan .

3.Nawaz Sharif's replies are particularly interesting. He has been guarded and his views on issues such as the command and control overPakistan's nuclear arsenal, the security of the arsenal, action against Dr.A.Q.Khan, the role of the army in national security policy-making,control over the Inter-Services Intelligence, and the perceived inadequate progress in the dialogue with India on the Kashmir issue havebeen framed in such a manner as not to make the Punjabi Generals of the Army uncomfortable. Nawaz Sharif and particularly his brotherShahbaz Sharif have been in touch with many of the serving and retired Punjabi officers and he has kept in view their sensitivities. Of all thefour leaders, he is the only leader who has given equal priority to Pakistan's relations with India and China. On the question of relations withthe US, there has been a certain lack of enthusiasm in his replies.

THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
ANP: There is no need for a National Security Council or any other supra constitutional bodies. Matters of National Security should be debated in the Parliament and a parliamentary body formed for it.

MQM: The Parliament of Pakistan is the supreme body and in its presence the concept and existence of the National Security Council is rather redundant; most certainly the very presence of the NSC looks upon the democratic institutions with distrust and questioning their validity. However, the NSC was a bitter pill that had to be swallowed but with conditionality through an amendment introduced by the MQM, that all decisions taken by the NSC have to be ratified by the Parliament and this was accepted by the coalition. The NSC cannot be looked in isolation, independent of certain hardcore facts namely: (1) The history of covert and overt actions and State oppression, such as against the MQM; (2) The post 9/11 scenario and (3) To avoid situations like the imposition of the emergency. The positive political involvement of the MQM with the coalition de-clawed the NSC and brought it under the political umbrella of parliamentary democracy.

PPP: The PPP does not support the National Security Council. The NSC would be abolished and replaced with a Defense Committee of the Cabinet headed by the Prime Minister.

PML-N: It has expressed two contradictory views. In his reply to the questions, Nawaz Sharif said that the NSC should always be headed by the Chief Executive which is the Prime Minister and not the President, but in its manifesto, the party had said:“ The National Security Council will be abolished. The Defense Committee of the Cabinet will be reconstituted as the Cabinet Committee on Defense and National Security and will be chaired by the Prime Minister.”

SHOULD THERE BE A MILITARY REPRESENTATION IN THE NSC IF IT CONTINUES?
ANP: The question does not arise as it wants the NSC to be abolished.

MQM: Security no more consists of only traditional concepts of external threat or aggression. It also addresses internal threats and aggression as well. Similarly, the much neglected and rapidly emerging economic, trade and natural threats need serious attention. Military has an important role to play, but under the official subservience of elected government.

PPP: As it does not support the NSC, the question of military representation in it does not arise. However, the Defense Committee of the Cabinet (DCC) under the Prime Minister should continue to have the military’s representation.

PML-N: If the NSC continues, the Chairman, Joint Chief of Staff ,and the chiefs of the three Services can be represented at the NSC, but it should also include the Foreign Minister, the Defence Minister, the Interior Minister and the Finance Minister, but not the four Chief Ministers as at present, if the Council is to perform genuine security functions and is not meant to oversee the political system of the country.

SHOULD THE INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (ISI) BE HEADED BY A CIVILIAN?
ANP: There are a number of concerns and questions about the role, structures and accountability of the ISI which need a critical review and reform to make it an effective, accountable and useful body working for the national interest. The body needs to be made accountable to an elected government with a professional civilian setup.

MQM: Absolutely not. The ISI historically speaking was created to collect, research, analyze and manage intelligence from the services that come under the Armed Forces. Unfortunately it was a civilian Prime Minister who created the political wing that was subsequently used to spy on politicians for blackmailing and buying their loyalties and has since then become a norm. The MQM condemns and abhors all such activities that ISI’s political wing practises. We would like the ISI to revert back to its original role and focus its eyes, ears and energies onto the military instead of civilians.

PPP: It is not very important who heads the security agencies. The important thing is that all security agencies, including the ISI, should be answerable to the elected Prime Minister and the Parliament. It is also important that the functioning of agencies like the ISI is regulated by legislation.

PML-N: No. The ISI, as an inter-service organization, has to be headed by a military Director-General.

THE COMMAND AND CONTROL OF THE NUCLEAR ARSENAL

ANP: The past perpetual military dictatorships have weakened every institution in the country and placed the entire nation at a serious risk. Thus it is difficult for anyone to have confidence in a command and control structure managed under such dictatorial regimes. Also, the Party strongly believes that Pakistan should support international moves for arms reduction and abolition of nuclear weapons on an universal and non-discriminatory basis.
MQM: We have faith in Pakistan’s command and control structure to safeguard our nuclear assets but we are concerned by all this unwanted attention it is getting in the foreign press. No system is 100 per cent fool-proof and we need to be vigilant 24/7, 365 days a year and to effectively weed out elements and threats who pose a threat to our nuclear assets. This is the price one pays to have these very expensive and deadly toys that supposedly bring strategic balance and peace. Pakistan more than anything needs peace of mind, social and economic development. No nuclear arsenal is strong enough to protect us if the supreme will of the people is not there.

PPP: The present command and control structure of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is under the President. The PPP has demanded that the Nuclear Command and Control be placed under the Defense Committee of the Cabinet under the Prime Minister.

PML-N: Yes. Satisfied with the existing command and control

ARE PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS VULNERABLE?

ANP: Pakistan is the only nuclear power in the Islamic world. Given the present tensions in the world, this nuclear capability can present a grave threat to the country’s security rather than guarantee it, which was the reason for going nuclear in the first place. The country’s foreign policy has, therefore, to be finely adjusted to guard against these dangers while at the same time, it must serve to further the national interest in terms of economic and commercial progress.

MQM: This is a technical question and since being no security expert or having no access to privileged information I may not be able to answer this question. But in this age and all things considered, nothing is invincible or inviolable. If nuclear faux pas and serious security breaches like 9/11 can happen in the West, how can we be so confident in this over-crowded country of 160 million people?

PPP: Musharraf has in his biography accused some Pakistani scientists of setting up a clandestine international market of nuclear weapons. If one were to believe his claim that the nuclear weapons were being sold in the black market by some individuals it would appear that our nuclear arms are vulnerable. However, we have received international assistance for putting in place a nuclear command and control structure. Therefore our nuclear assets ought to be safe. But God forbid, if the country begins to fall apart and armed militants march on to Islamabad supported by another Red Mosque type mutiny, the situation would be extremely dangerous. This is why, as the democratic alternative,we believe it is essential to restore democracy, mobilize the strength of the people and create political stability to secure the integrity of the country.

PML-N: No.

SHOULD THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY IN VIENNA BE GIVEN DIRECT ACCESS TO DR.A.Q.KHAN?

ANP: No.

MQM: Dr. A.Q. Khan affair was handled unprofessionally and was humiliating for Pakistan as well as the person who was instrumental in Pakistan’s nuclear program. But no person should be above the law and there are procedures to handle such situations. There was no need to have public circuses. The establishment created this hero culture for its own ulterior objectives. Pakistan can do better without this lame culture; what this country needs more than anything else is men and women of substance.

PPP: The regime has already allowed IAEA access to A. Q. Khan by transmitting written replies of Dr. Khan to the Agency. Parliament is the best forum for considering direct access to Dr Khan if ever such a demand was made.

PML-N: No.

SHOULD A.Q.KHAN BE RELEASED FROM HOUSE ARREST?

ANP: Yes. However, if Dr. Khan is guilty of a criminal offense, he should have been charged and allowed a fair trial.

MQM: Dr Khan is under protective custody. But again the Government should be clear, straightforward and take people into confidence but not procrastinate. If Dr AQ Khan is guilty then do the necessary under the law and if he is innocent then do the necessary as well. Individual & State can both make mistakes. We need to move on.

PPP: Yes.

PML-N: Yes.

WOULD YOU ACTIVELY ADVOCATE HIS RELEASE?

ANP: Yes. He or any other citizen should not be held without a charge.

MQM: If he is innocent why not.

PPP: We advocate a parliamentary probe into the nuclear proliferation and due process of law. The PPP has called for a parliamentary inquiry because Pakistan cannot afford to endanger its own nuclear system by smuggling and proliferating weapons of mass destruction.

PML-N: Yes.

TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN

ANP: There are different forms of terrorism and militancy in the country which can be traced mainly to the state policies and patronage.

MQM: Terrorism is not merely a problem any more. The dark reality is that it will soon be touching epidemic proportions if radical measures are not taken immediately and with the utmost sincerity. Everyone talks of democracy and how it will eradicate the evil of terrorism without bothering to take into consideration the root causes that have prevailed and need equal attention and importance as terrorism as well. The fact is that with over160 million people, decadent feudal practices, over centralization of power, limited resources, high illiteracy, shifting rural-urban dynamics and widening gaps between haves and have-nots, the increasing sense of deprivation will only breed fanaticism, sectarianism and extremism. These terrorists are cashing in on the poverty struck people and exploiting their sentiments and handicaps. Every underprivileged and socio-economically disadvantaged person is a potential Al Qaeda recruit in this world today and by default West with all its success and its allies becomes the hateful target. A lot needs to be acknowledged, understood and corrected besides radical measures and this means political changes and reforms in Pakistan and the Muslim world as well. With specific reference to Pakistan we have to place special emphasis on fundamental reforms in FATA (Federally-Administered Tribal Areas) and bringing them in the national and political mainstream.

PPP: Yes, terrorism is a serious problem facing the country. In her last political testament, Shaheed Mohtarma Bhutto said that she feared for the future of Pakistan at the hands of militancy and exhorted the Party to ‘continue the fight against extremism’.

PML-N: Yes. ( It is a serious problem)

WHAT HAVE BEEN THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF PAKISTAN'S PARTICIPATION IN THE WAR ON TERROR?
ANP: We cannot see any positive impact of such an illegal war which has directly targeted the Pukhtuns and caused severe threat to peace and security in the region.

MQM: We have been on the receiving end. We received aid worth 12 billion US dollars and we received the wrath of Al Qaeda and Taliban and the hate of the masses for the rulers’ for siding with the US in spite of being the target of bomb attacks as well. We certainly won’t call it the best bargain especially so since this war is bringing terror now to GHQ doorsteps and cantonments across the country. As if this is not enough, we are now earning the suspicion of Americans regarding the sincerity of our intentions. It is rather unfortunate that it had to take a 9/11 like incident to wake us up. What we are doing today is sorting our house that should have been done long ago; if we had done so, we could have very well prevented the shame and unnecessary attention that Pakistan had to face because of the myopic and visionless policies in the past. It’s not a question of negative and positive impacts here; at that time (after 9/11) it was a matter of choice between the devil and the deep blue sea and the best possible decision under the circumstances was taken in Pakistan’s interest. These Johnnies who are critical of Pakistan’s decision are still living in a fool’s paradise and need to get a reality check. Every dark cloud has a silver lining and we need to find ours; as long as we take home a lesson and apply it for an egalitarian, democratic Pakistan then we have hope. If nothing, 9/11 has opened our eyes to the reality we had been avoiding for so long. 9/11 is a wake up call for us as much as it is for rest of the world.

PPP: It is in our interest to participate in the war on terror and root out the scourge of terrorism from Pakistan. On the negative side, however, the dictatorship has manipulated the war on terror to perpetuate itself and deny the people their democratic rights. The regime seems to be running with the hare and hunting with the hound and thus invited incalculable damage.

PML-N: The negative consequences of Pakistan’s participation in the war against terror far exceed any positive (economic) impact it may have yielded.

WHAT WOULD BE YOUR POLICY TO DEAL WITH TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN?

ANP: We firmly believe in finding peaceful and non violent ways of addressing external and internal threats. The party will seek political solutions to such problems rather than use of force. Much of the problems of extremism have exacerbated in the country because of extended periods of military dictatorships and total breakdown of state institutions. The situation can only be reversed by a legitimate and democratically elected government with a focus on needs, interests and aspirations of the people. Uphold democracy, rule of law and independence of the main pillars of the state, protect rights and freedoms.

MQM: Terrorism today is the culmination of the political processes and strategic seedlings planted jointly by one man and a superpower namely, Zia-ul-Haq and the US in their passion to bleed the heathen Russians in Afghanistan. Thus it is a joint moral responsibility of Pakistan and the US to bring sustainable political solutions to redress the mess we are in today. Pakistan’s counterterrorism measures have to be carefully balanced against long term domestic and foreign policy goals in order to get maximum advantage. For Pakistan to be a strong self sufficient nation, it will need to rethink its current spending of Western aid, shifting resources to improving the country’s socio-economic strata while defending itself against potential threats and a new class of radical groups. Any effective policy will have to be based on a multi-pronged approach with critical appreciation, acceptance and analysis of historical facts, mistakes made and the ground reality today before we embark on any new policy making adventure. Essentially, the political leadership will have to be taken into confidence. The Civil, Military and Feudal troika (Establishment) can no longer be trusted with what is national interest and defining our future. It has to be a participatory exercise for it to be effective and of consequence.The MQM is aware of as well as deeply concerned over the lack of any reforms in FATA and how these critical political gaps are being used by extremist elements as launch pads to strike deep into Pakistan and to spread terror, fear and hate. The political parties should be given free access to the FATA and allowed to practise as well. The black FCR (Frontier Crime Regulations) law in FATA needs to be abolished and a solid socio-economic reform package introduced encompassing wide scale and meaningful madrassah reforms to bring them into the national mainstream with proper audit and regulations.Healthy and educated people are less likely to become the cannon fodder for terrorists. We have neglected education & health for far too long and it needs urgent attention with an increase of 10 % each of GDP within the next ten years. Of equal importance is population control which is a demographic termite that will erode us from within if not snipped in the bud.

PPP: The Party is committed to vigorously confront militancy and terrorism. We do not support appeasement or dialogue with the militants who have taken on the state. We will talk with those who will lay down arms and accept the state and the Constitution. The military government has relied solely on the use of force in dealing with extremism in the tribal areas. We believe that alongside the use of force, we also need to take political steps and improve the socio- economic conditions of the people in the tribal area.Poverty and social isolation also breeds militancy. We will address issues of poverty and social isolation in the tribal areas. The PPP has already filed a constitutional petition in the Supreme Court seeking the extension of the Political Parties Act to the tribal areas. We want to bring the people of the tribal areas into the 21st century and make them stake- holders in fighting militancy and extremism. We would interrupt the flow of drug funds that finance militancy as well as spread education and employment.We need to bring in education and development in the tribal areas, which have remained cut off from the rest of the world since the last PPP government was dismissed in 1996. But we will not compromise with the extremists. We have prepared a blue print for the socio-economic development of the tribal areas in which the elected Agency Councils will have administrative and financial powers to undertake development activities. We also plan to give them an independent judicial system with the right to appeal. PML-N: The use of force is and will remain necessary against foreign and local terrorists who take innocent lives and also to prevent infiltration across the Pakistan border. But it is even more important to win the hearts and minds of people who support them, through a concerted process of political engagement.

PML-N is committed to pursue this dual track approach and take resolute steps to eradicate the menace of extremism and terrorism. During its previous tenure from 1997 to 1999, the PML-N government took a series of measures to control terrorist groups and counter their activities. It also supported the efforts of the international community to deal with this threat. In keeping with this policy, the party will intensify these efforts by: strengthening the capacity of law enforcing agencies to detect and control terrorist groups and their supporters; influencing the groups which directly or indirectly support terrorism, through political intermediaries and civil society organizations to adhere to basic Islamic principles of peace, moderation and justice. Also, promoting the rule of law, tolerance and mutual respect in the country to overcome the sense of desperation; taking steps to mainstream the tribal areas into the political, economic and cultural activities of the country and accelerating the pace of economic and social development in these areas.

WHICH ARE THE COUNTRIES TO WHICH SPECIAL ATTENTION SHOULD BE GIVEN IN FOREIGN POLICY?

ANP: Pakistan needs to pay special attention to building its relations with all its neighbours especially Afghanistan and India. In view of the commonalities in culture, faith, language and history between the people of Pukhtunkhwa and those of Afghanistan, determined efforts should be made to promote cooperation in every field including economic, commercial, educational and cultural. Similarly, establishment of peaceful, cooperative good neighbourly relations with India should be given high priority. All issues including Jammu and Kashmir should be solved through peaceful negotiations and open dialogue. Bilateral relations with any country should be conducted strictly on the basis of sovereign equality and non-interference in each others’ internal affairs.

MQM: Pakistan and India have been bitter enemies from day one since independence and spent more time in propaganda and destabilizing each other than developing their people and countries. India was better in managing open fronts as well as managing hot spots due to internal and external reasons and threats. Also, it was not burdened by the religious fervor that messed up our foreign policy and resulted in delusional and divine agendas of questionable validity and poor reflection of our global needs. There is no reason that we cannot have a South Asian Fraternity like EU in certain areas like trade and travel to be followed by a No War Pact as well as agreement to totally destroy respective nuclear arsenals by a certain date. We favor a Nuclear Free South Asia.Most importantly, if India and Pakistan can bilaterally settle all issues amicably, Pakistan will have no more issues with Afghanistan or Iran either and this will be a big victory for our foreign policy.

PPP: We need to improve relations on priority basis with the SAARC countries and more importantly with India. The PPP policy is to improve relations with India without prejudice to the Kashmir dispute. It is manifest from the signing of the Simla agreement in 1972 and December 1988 agreement not to attack each other’s nuclear installations. The PPP had been called a security risk for its farsighted vision, which was now being embraced by all its then critics.

PML-N: A peaceful settlement of all outstanding issues with India, in a spirit of fairness and equity would be accorded special priority by the Party. Also, every effort would be made to strengthen and enhance the relationship with Pakistan’s time tested friend China so as to make it truly strategic, by imparting greater substance and depth to it.

ARE YOU SATISFIED WITH THE CURRENT LEVEL OF INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS?:

ANP: Same as the answer to the previous question.

MQM: Certainly relations with India are better than ever before. But a lot more needs to be done and for it to be sustained. There is better interaction between the people of the two countries and you are seeing the emergence of a social dialogue between the intellectuals, academics, think tanks, artists, NGOs and others besides the government to government interactions as well as track II diplomacy in the sidelines. Yes, we do need to resolve issues like Kashmir and water before we can put a closure on past, but it should not deter us from seeking peace and prosperity.\

PPP: The PPP has welcomed the regime taking a leaf from its manifesto for the normalization of relations with India. However, we are not sure whether it is merely tactical in nature or it is a strategic shift in policy thinking.

PML-N: On the whole ‘Yes’ but there is still considerable mistrust between the two countries which has to be removed.

THE KASHMIR QUESTION

ANP: Same as above....

MQM: It is high time and we both need to move towards a resolution. Pakistan and India cannot afford to have this bleeding sore forever. Most importantly, the Kashmiris need to take a front seat and claim it from Islamabad and New Delhi or stay confined to headlines forever. There have been human losses on both sides and billions of dollars wasted on expensive military hardware, upkeep of forces.It is time to go beyond Shimla summit & Lahore yatra, and work towards a permanent and lasting peace and let us make it happen within the next two years.We fully endorse the joint statement between Pakistan and India at the SAARC Summit on Jan 6, 2004 for a composite framework and dialogue. The spirit has to continue and materialized for the benefit of the two countries and in the shortest possible time.

PPP: We think that without compromising our position we still can take step by step measures that will enhance confidence and create an environment for the people of Kashmir to determine their future. Some measures that can be taken immediately are facilitating meeting of divided families, Srinagar-Muzaffarabad Bus Service ,a seminar of lawyers from both sides of the LOC at Muzaffarabad and Srinagar to discuss existing laws against basic Human Rights, organizing Intra Kashmiri dialogue and a seminar of businessmen from both sides of the LOC to discuss the possibilities of promoting business within the State.

PML-N: India has not so far responded positively to the flexibility shown by Pakistan for resolving the Kashmir issue. More intensive dialogue is needed which hopefully would be possible with the revival of a democratic government after the next elections.

RELATIONS WITH THE US

ANP: The relations with the US need to be characterized by dignity and self respect and must result in mutual benefit. The basic principle of sovereign equality and non-interference needs to be instituted. The main focus of the relationship needs to shift from military to social and economic development.
MQM: There is no shortcut to achieving Pakistan’s interests’ better with the USA. Both the US and Pakistan are deeply disillusioned with each other due to bitter experiences on our part and non satisfactory relationship complaints on their part in the past. It is very important that US-Pakistan relationship extends beyond the relationship between the Pentagon and the Pakistan Army. It has to be a people to people contact and relationship that will establish trust and bridges that will last. The Pentagon-Pakistan Army relationship is a vestige of cold war that should not come in the way of exemplary relationship between the two nations. The US needs to realize that linking aid with war on terror is not enough; it has to identify the root causes that have led us to this situation today and link aid with effective measures towards sincere steps towards implementation of provincial autonomy. True democracy and democratic reforms are a farce in a feudal setup that only thrives on clans, tribes, race, ethnicity and sectarian issues. The US needs to study these root causes and address Pakistan’s predicaments and grievances accordingly.

PPP: The foreign policy must be shaped by the Parliament and the Cabinet.The PPP would discuss and debate the foreign policy issues in the Parliament to bring them in consonance with the nation’s aspirations.

PML-N: The new government that takes over, after the next elections, will have to undertake a thorough review of its relationship with the USA keeping in view the following objectives: i) Convince the US that while Pakistan will continue to cooperate with the US to curb cross border activities into Afghanistan, dealing with the extremist threat within Pakistan will remain Pakistan’s own responsibility.ii) There is need for a deeper mutual understanding of the causes of extremism in this region and for a new strategy to deal with it, on the basis of this understanding.iii) Urgent steps have to be taken to mainstream the tribal areas in the political, cultural and economic life of Pakistan.iv) It will be necessary to spell out the rights and obligations of being a non-Nato ally for Pakistan, to put the US - Pakistan relationship on a firm and sustainable basis.

SHOULD PAKISTAN HAVE A DIALOGUE WITH ISRAEL?
ANP: The matter needs to be debated in the Parliament to build a consensus on the issue. The party doesn’t believe in the clandestine dialogue process with Israel pursued by the present and any past governments.

MQM: Holy Prophet and his wife Bibi Khatijah used to trade with Yehudis (Jews) besides the social and intellectual interactions. Pakistan’s national interest should not be subservient or linked to any other country’s national interest.

PPP: Pakistan supports the Peace Plan proposed by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. We believe in taking whatever steps are necessary to implement that plan efficaciously.

PML-N: No. (19-2-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

STEVEN SPIELBERG: "GOOD RIDDANCE"

B.RAMAN

"Good riddance."

2.That has been the reaction of a large number of Chinese to the announcement of Hollywood film director Steven Spielberg that he has resigned as an artistic adviser to the forthcoming Beijing Olympic Games because of China's continued support to the Sudan.

3.In a letter to the Chinese Ambassador in Washington and the Beijing Olympics Organising Committee released to the media on February 13,2008,he said that his "conscience will not allow me to continue with business as usual" while China failed to use its economic, military and diplomatic ties with Sudan to end the crisis in Darfur. He added : "Sudan's Government bears the bulk of the responsibility for these ongoing crimes.But the international community, and particularly China, should be doing more to end the continuing human suffering there."

4. The reactions of spokespersons of the Chinese Government and the Beijing Olympics Organising Committee to his surprise announcement have been measured and polite without any show of anger. They have explained the various measures which China has taken bilaterally and within the UN to contribute to the efforts of the international community to restore normalcy in the Darfur region and deplored the apparent attempts of some interested elements in the West---particularly in the US--- to politicise the Olympics by linking the Games with political issues, which would be totally against the spirit of the Games.

5.Liu Jianchao, a spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in Beijing: "It is understandable if they do not understand the Chinese Government policy on Darfur,but if they are politically motivated, we will not accept." He added: "China has made unremitting efforts to resolve the Darfur issue, a fact that is obvious to anyone in the international community that is not biased against China. China helped push forward the Sudanese Government, African Union and United Nations reaching consensus on sending a peace-keeping force to Darfur.This did not come easily and our efforts have been recognized by the international community.In order to improve the humanitarian situation in Darfur, China has provided material assistance worth 80 million RMB (11 million U.S. dollars) to Darfur, 1.8 million U.S. dollars aid to African Union, and 500,000 U.S. dollars donation to the U.N. fund for solving Darfur issue.China has promised to send a 315-strong engineering unit to Darfur. A 140-member advance troop is already in Darfur, and more will be gradually deployed. Besides, China's special representative has visited Sudan three times since taking office last May. Chinese enterprises in Sudan also provided much assistance and constructed many projects there. In recent years, Chinese companies have helped dig 46 wells, build 20 small-scale power plants in Darfur and water supply projects in southern and northern Darfur states, as well as provide teaching equipment. On the issue of Darfur, empty rhetoric will not help.What is most important is to do substantial things to promote peace process there and alleviate the humanitarian crisis."

6.Concerned over the attempts of some anti-China elements in the US to exploit China's close relations with the Government of Sudan for calling for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics, the Chinese Government has taken a number of steps since May last to remove misperceptions about its policies relating to Darfur. Similarly, to create a positive image of China, it has been playing a constructive role on the question of the denuclearisation of North Korea and nudging the military junta in Myanmar to receive the UN Special Representative and resume talks with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The US itself has praised China's positive role on the issue of North Korea and UN officials have highlighted the constructive role played by Beijing in Myanmar in the wake of the large-scale demonstrations by the Buddhist monks last year.

7. In spite of this, Dream for Darfur, a U.S.-based rights group which is supported by Hollywood actress Mia Farrow, has been carrying on a campaign against China on the issue of its relations with the Sudan for the last one year and calling for a boycott of the Olympic Games if China does not change its policies. It was also exercising pressure on Spielberg to quit his job as the adviser to the organisers of the Games.

8.In April last year, the Beijing Olympics Organising Committee hired the services of Spielberg and Ric Burch, an Australian, to advise the organisers on how to choreograph the opening and closing ceremonies. Even at that time, Spielberg was under pressure from Mia Farrow and others not to accept the contract. Even though he must have been aware of the situation in Darfur, he resisted their pressure and accepted the high-paying contract and worked for nearly nine months accepting the emoluments offered by the Organising Committee. Suddenly,less than six months before the Games, his heart has started bleeding for the human rights of the people of Darfur and he has quit.

9. While the Chinese officials' reactions have been polite, the reactions of the common Chinese people have been anything but polite. They have been criticising their own Government for inviting foreigners to advise them as to how to organise the opening and closing ceremonies when enough talent is available in China. Instead of making it an Olympics in Chinese Colours, they sought to make it an Olympics In Hollywood Colours or rather an Olympics in Spielberg's Colours. And he has let them down very badly. Some are demading that the Organising Committee should release to the media the text of the contract with Spielberg so that people can know how much he was paid.

10. Given below are some of the comments of ordinary Chinese which I picked up while going through the reactions in various Chinese Internet discussion groups:

"First it was Prince Charles , now it is Spielberg . At this rate the Beijing Olympics will be the cleanest games of all time . These trash need to understand that it is the generosity of the Chinese government and people who allowed them the privilege of being involved. Charlie has nothing to offer at all and although Spielberg has some good form , it is not as if he knows anything about Chinese art and celebrations . Good riddance to bad rubbish ."

"Darfur as a beating stick is so juvenile . This horrendous human tragedy has been in the making for a long time : long before China was even heard of in African affairs. The British colonized the place in !916 and they have neglected the infrastructure till independence in '65 . The present conflict is the result of global warming , famine and survival .The Europeans , Americans and Brits have had their paws all over the oil and other resources for the past centuries . They are the most influential powers and they have happily sold arms to them for years . Suddenly , Farrow and Spielberg cooked and sexed up this Hollywood block buster and accuse China of " failing to use her close connections with the Sudanese government " to alter the course of events ! Whatever happened to the shrinking violets and coy maidens called USA , UK & Europe ? Whatever happened to the UN and its peace keeping responsibilities ?"

"This is an example of grasping at straw . Instead of looking into the mirror and see who those ugly ducklings are , this convenient finger pointing is too cute by half . China has business relationship with every country on earth : so has the US , UK and others ."

"It is the measure of the Western supremacist attitude and thinking that they feel this will be a " blow " to the Chinese . No sir , it is NOT Some Chinese may have heard of Farrow and Spielberg , most don't recognize them from a bar of soap !"

"It is that old time colonial mentality that if the whites pull out or do not " help " the Chinese will not know what to do . Well buddy baby , they do , and they will do much better without your " help ".

11. Having tasted blood,the group led by Mia Farrow is planning to approach all Western corporate sponsors of the Beijing Olympics and pressurise them to withdraw from their sponsorship. Some Chinese are now expecting the heart of Richard Gere, another Hollywood actor close to the Dalai Lama, to start bleeding for the human rights of the Tibetans. Unlike Spielberg, he has not accepted any contract from the Games Organisers, but he and other-linked people in Hollywood and outside are expected to try to embarrass the Chinese by organising demonstrations when the Olympic flame comes to the US and India as well as during the Games at Beijing itself.

12. A number of other groups in the US are also trying to embarrass the Chinese over issues such as human rights and religious freedom in China and freedom of the media. The Chinese have assured all participating countries that their team members would be provided all facilities for their prayers and allowed to bring their personal copies of their religious books, but they would not be allowed to bring extra copies for distribution to the public. These groups are wanting to create an embarrassing situation by smuggling in extra copies and distributing them and also by gifting to their interlocutors T-shirts with the picture of the Dalai Lama.

13. Western business houses are very keen that no attempt should be made to politicise the Games. President Bush has already announced that he would attend the Games. The business houses do not want any damage to their vast business interests in China. Moreover, this is the first time in the history of the Olympics that the games are being held in a country with a population of over a billion with a vast consumer market. This provides these business houses with an additional opportunity for the exposure of their products to the Chinese consumers. They feel uncomfortable with the attempts of the China-baiters in the non-governmental community to needle China before and during the Games.

14. The intelligence and security agencies of the Western countries have assured the Chinese of all co-operation to prevent any terrorist threat to the Games. Robert Mueller, the Director of the USA's Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), visited Beijing for three days in the last week of January for discussions with Chinese police, intelligence and security officials. He told the media: " My concern is to ensure that the 2008 Olympics are not a target for terrorist attacks. China's leaders are doing a good job making Olympic venues secure.I am very much impressed by the preparations that have been made to accomplish that, and I fully anticipate that the Olympics will be secure and safe.We are concerned about foreign threats, which is why it is tremendously important for us to share intelligence with regard to threats that may be originating outside China, as China itself addresses threats from within the country.The Olympics are an opportunity for my agency to further enhance its relationship with its Chinese counterparts. I hope this cooperation on counter-terrorism will last well past the Games." (17-2-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

PAK ELECTIONS: KEEPING THE FINGERS CROSSED

B.RAMAN
Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), has sought to ensure that the elections could be held on February 18,2008, as scheduled by entering into an informal cease-fire agreement with the Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan headed by Baitullah Mehsud, its Amir, and the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) headed by Mullah Fazlulla of the Swat Valley. There has been a sharp drop in acts of terrorism involving these organisations since February 4.

2.Gen.Kiyani has already withdrawn regular Army troops from South Waziristan as demanded by Baitullah and lifted the economic blocade imposed against the Mehsuds. He has also entered into talks with Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi of the Lal Masjid of Islamabad through the intermediary of Maulana Fazlur Rahman of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) Pakistan and Chaudhury Shujjat Hussain of the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaide Azam), which is close to President Pervez Musharraf. Maulana Ghazi is presently under detention along with some others, who were arrested by the Army during the commando action in the Masjid from July 10 to 13,2007. Their unconditional release was another demand of Baitullah. There has been speculation that at least the Maulana, if not the others, might be released if the Tehrik-e-Taliban does not disrupt the elections. Both these organisations have publicly stated that they will not disrupt the polls.

3. Despite the drop in acts of terrorism as a result of this cease-fire, unidentified elements, presumably not belonging to the Tehrik and the TNSM, have kept up sporadic acts of terrorism. There were two deadly attacks on election rallies of the secular Awami National Party (ANP) in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and North Waziristan, one ambush of an Army convoy in North Waziristan in which a Major and two others were killed and attacks on the telecomminication towers in the Darra Adam Khel area of the NWFP. There are many jihadi organisations in the NWFP, which are not part of the Tehrik or the TNSM. It should not, therefore, be a surprise that they have kept up their attacks, which are, however, on a reduced scale.

4. Musharraf, Kiyani and the Election Commission are confident that the elections would be held as scheduled without any serious disruption, but some disruptions in the tribal areas cannot be ruled out. The Election Commission is concerned that the voter turn-out may be very low partly due to security concerns and partly due to general disenchantment among the people with the military as well as the political leadership. There is a widespread sense of public fatigue with the present crop of leaders. The Commission has been appealing to the people to come out and vote. It is concerned that a very low turn-out might itself discredit the electoral process even if the elections are free and fair.

5. Unlike the 2002 elections, which were hardly monitored by the international community, the elections of February 18 are expected to be monitored by at least about 1000 international montors. The expected presence of powerful US Senators John Kerry and Joseph Biden among the monitors would impart force and credibility to the monitoring process. However, even 1,000 monitors cannot be every where to ensure comprehensive monitoring. There will be many gaps in the monitoring, which could be exploited by Musharraf and his supporters to have the elections rigged.

6. Musharraf knows that if his supporters win a majority, the elections would not be accepted as free and fair by his opponents and the international monitors. There will be a strong presumption of rigging even if the suspicion cannot be proved. Musharraf' is, therefore, hoping and working for a hung National Assembly in which no party will have an absolute majority on its own. He is reconciled to the prospect of his opponents----mainly the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Mr.Asif Zardari and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif---- together acquiring a majority in the National Assembly. He can live with an Assembly in which his opponents have a simple and not a two-thirds majority.

7. When he got himself re-elected as the President in October last by the previous Assembly, he had promised that he would get his re-election endorsed by the new Assembly. This would be out of question if his opponents acquire a majority---simple or two-thirds. His inability to have his re-election so endorsed need not make his position difficult. Such an endorsement was a moral commitment made by him, but it is not a constitutional requirement.

8. Both the PPP and the PML(N) have been saying during the election campaign that if they get a two-thirds majority they would work for the abrogation of all the constitutional amendments promulgated by Musharraf in December last before lifting the State of Emergency and restoring the Constitution. This would pave the way for his impeachment.

9. If the elections are free and fair, three scenarios are possible:
SCENARIO NO.1: The PPP wins a simple or a two-thirds majority. The US has a strong influence over the PPP, which might let itself be persuaded by Washington DC to co-habit with Musharraf provided the conditions of co-habitation are worked out to its satisfaction.

SCENARIO NO.2: The PPP and the PML (N) together win a simple, but not a two-thirds majority. Musharraf may be able to survive as President by manipulating the one against the other.

SCENARIO NO 3: The PPP and the PML (N) together win a two-thirds majority required for removing the constitutional amendments and paving the way for Musharraf's removal. Despite US pressure not to rock the boat, the PPP will find it difficult not to go along with Nawaz in his moves against Musharraf.

10. In the eventuality of Scenario No.1 or 2 materialising, the Army may not intervene. If Scenario No.3 materialises, the Army may intervene, with the blessings of the US, the UK and Saudi Arabiia, for ensuring that Musharraf's exit comes about in a manner which protects his honour and is not seen by the jihadis as a humiliation for him because of his co-operation with the US in the war against Al Qaeda. Any perception that he had to quit in humiliation because of his co-operation with the US would be detrimental to the campaign against Al Qaeda.

11. The US and the rest of the Western world----despite their disenchantment with Musharraf's failure to act effectively against terrorism---- would want him to continue as the President since they still have confidence in his ability to ensure the security and safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. They would work hard for a co-habitation arrangement, with Musharraf continuing as the President with his powers relating to the nuclear arsenal and the fight against terrorism intact, but his other powers reduced. Such an arrangement might be possible with the PPP, but difficult to achieve if the PML (N) becomes an important member of the ruling coalition.

12. The US has realised that its open support for Mrs.Benazir Bhutto and her statements of unqualified support to the US made her a target of the jihadi terrorists. It is now playing a low profile role using the UK and Saudi Arabia as intermediaries.

13. Whether Pakistan moves from bad to worse or from bad to not-so-bad would depend on the outcome of the forthconing elections and their sequel. The entire international community, including India, will be watching the elections closely with their fingers crossed. (16-2-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )