INDIA-CHINA: CAN THE HUMILIATION OF 1962 REPEAT ITSELF?

 

 

Can the history of our humiliation at the hands of China in 1962 repeat itself?

2.As we approach the 50^th anniversary of the humiliation next month, we have to analyse this question in depth in our governmental national security community as well as outside. It is important for the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) to organise a series of brainstorming on this subject with the participation of experts on China from the Government and outside.

3. The starting-point of such a brainstorming has to be a presumption that the present efforts to solve our border dispute with China through talks may not succeed and  that we may be confronted with a fresh military confrontation in the future.

4.Should such a confrontation arise, are we better prepared  to face it today than we were in 1962? If not, what are the deficiencies still existing and how to remove them?

5.It is important for us to objectively  identify the factors that led to the 1962 humiliation and examine to what extent they have been removed. It is also important to foresee what kind of new factors not seen in 1962 could arise and what implications they could have for our capabilities.

6. It is my view that our ability to prevent another humiliation in future would depend upon our trans-Himalayan military strategy and capability as it did in 1962. The roles of the Army and the Air Force in such a strategy will be pre-eminent. The role of the Navy will be marginal. It will be our trans-Himalayan strategic mindset and tactical thinking that will determine the future course of any new military confrontation with China as it did in 1962.

7. I would identify the following as the basic causes of our humiliation  of 1962:

( a ). Though our civilian and military intelligence agencies had a satisfactory capability for the collection of infrastructure intelligence from Tibet, their capability for the collection of war indicators from Tibet was very poor. They detected in time the clandestine Chinese construction of roads such as the Aksai Chin road in the Western sector, but they missed the Chinese preparations for a military foray into our territory. The Chinese attack on our positions must have been preceded by weeks, if not months, of preparations on the ground in Tibet. The war indicators caused by such preparations were missed by our intelligence agencies.

( b ).Our capability for the analysis and assessment of China-related  intelligence was inadequate. Even the limited intelligence flowing from Tibet from human and technical sources was not subjected to vigorous analysis and assessment. Our knowledge and assessment of the Chinese military thinking and mindset were poor. We hardly knew anything about the India expertise in the PLA and the Chinese intelligence. As a result, we seriously underestimated the Chinese political and military will to assert their ground interests across the Himalayas and over-assessed and over-projected our capability to anticipate and neutralise any Chinese assertion of their will.

( c ). Inadequate professionalism in our Armed Forces and their inability to foresee different scenarios that could arise and identify the available options. This lack of professionalism was seen right across the board --- from the failure to procure the military stores that would be required for a trans-Himalayan war to readapting the training of our officers. The Army went into war with very little training and experience in mountain warfare and with very few equipment for such a warfare.

( d ). The inexperience of our political leadership in military-related decision-making and in enforcing the implementation of the decisions taken.

8. My assessment of the present position regarding these factors is as follows:

( a ).Our intelligence collection capability in Tibet has improved. Our intelligence agencies are unlikely to miss war indicators in Tibet as badly as they did in 1962.

( b ). Our analysis and assessment capability has improved over what it was in 1962, but continues to be inadequate. The Chinese language capability of our national security community is worse than what it was in 1962 and in the years immediately thereafter. Our ability to understand and analyse the Chinese military mind-set and thinking continues to be poor. Whatever capability we have built up in this regard has been largely influenced by Western thinking and analysis without an independent application of our mind. Our analysis and assessment infrastructure in respect of China-related intelligence lags behind our analysis and assessment infrastructure in respect of Pakistan-related intelligence. We can anticipate, analyse and counter Pakistan better than we can China. There are wild swings in our assessments on China----- from alarmism on the one side to total complacency on the other.

( C ).The professionalism of our Armed Forces has improved. They are better equipped, better trained and better led for a trans-Himalayan warfare today. But, there is a lack of convergence of thinking between the Army and the Air Force on the one side and the Navy on the other as to what China implies for our national security and Armed Forces. There is inadequate integrated joint staff thinking  in the Armed Forces as a whole on China. There is a newly-acquired fascination for naval power and an inadequate  appreciation of the continuing importance of military (Army related) and air power.

( d ). The understanding of our political class in matters relating to strategic decision-making on China is inadequate though it is better than what it was in 1962 and the years before. There is a clear understanding in our political class of China as a political and economic competitor, but inadequate comprehension of China as a military factor.

9.Two new factors that have made their appearance since 1962 have not received adequate attention in our national security community:

( a ). The Chinese search for alternate means of taking India by surprise. In 1962, they took us by surprise because our intelligence agencies had little capability for collecting war indictors from the ground in Tibet. The Chinese no longer enjoy this advantage. The increasing Chinese emphasis on the role of the helicopter-borne operations of their Army has to be seen in the context of their search for new means of taking India by surprise--- particularly in Arunachal Pradesh. The equipping and training of the copter wing of their Army is receiving increasing attention with some major exercises already noticed.

( b ). The Chinese testing and fine-tuning of integrated techniques of an Army-Air Force role in defending Tibet  from external threats and in asserting their will trans Himalayas. There has been an increase in the number of Air Force exercises in Tibet. Not adequate knowledge of Chinese Air Force exercises in Yunnan is available, but my surmise is that in any future military confrontation with India, the Chinese will use their Air Force defensively  from Tibet and offensively from Yunnan.

10.In 1962, the entire North Myanmar was a political, administrative and military vacuum. The Myanmar Government presence has since improved in the Rakhine (old Arakan) and Chin areas bordering Bangladesh, but remains the same in the Kachin State bordering Yunnan. The Kachin State and Yunnan are very important in any trans-Himalayan military strategy. We continue to neglect these two important regions from the point of view of our intelligence coverage as we were doing before 1962. The  Kachin State is important for defending our North East in any new confrontation with China. The Rakhine State is important for our Indian Ocean objectives and our energy security.

11. I do not consider it necessary to touch upon the nuclear aspect in this analysis. It has to be discussed in camera. ( 17-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

AL QAEDA’S FIRST COMMENT ON BENGHAZI ATTACK COMES FROM YEMEN

 

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER  NO 767

B.RAMAN

Al Qaeda’s first comment on the commando-style attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi in Libya has not come from its command and control in North Waziristan in Pakistan headed by its Amir Ayman al-Zawahiri, but from its Yemen branch called Ai Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), also referred to as Ansar al-Sharia (Supporters of Sharia)

2. Of course, Zawahiri had issued a video message on September 10,2012, one day before the Benghazi attack confirming the death of his No.2 Abu Yahya al-Libi, a Libyan cleric, in a US Drone strike in the Waziristan area on June 4,2012.The message called President Barack Obama a liar, who was trying to mislead the Muslims..

3. The presumption among many analysts was that the Benghazi attack was to avenge the death of al-Libi and that it had been planned before the Islamic world came to know of the film Innocence of Islam  which has sparked off violent anti-US protests in many countries.

4. One expected that the first comment of Al Qaeda on the Benghazi attack would come from Zawahiri or from  Al Qaeda headquarters in North Waziristan. It has not. It has come from Yemen, indicating a possible co-ordination of the anti-US protests by AQAP.

5. The AQAP’s comment is not in the form of claim of responsibility for the Benghazi attack. It is in the form of a justification for the attack.

6. According to SITE, an intelligence group in the US which, inter alia, monitors the web statements of Al Qaeda, the AQAP said: “The killing of Sheikh Abu Yahya only increased the enthusiasm and determination of the sons of (Libyan independence hero) Omar al-Mukhtar to take revenge upon those who attack our Prophet. The uprising of our people in Libya, Egypt and Yemen against America and its embassies is a sign to notify the United States that its war is not directed against groups and organisations... but against the Islamic nation that has rebelled against injustice." It called for more violent demonstrations against US embassies in the Middle East and Africa, and urged Muslims in the West to attack American interests in their countries of residence. "May the expulsion of embassies and consulates lead to the liberation of Arab lands from the American hegemony and the arrogance," said the statement. The AQAP is led by Nasser al-Wahishi. 

7. On September 15,2012, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the Pakistani Taliban is known called upon Muslim youth in Pakistan and other countries to protest against the movie. While one violent incident attributed to the Afghan Taliban has been reported from Southern Afghanistan, reportedly resulting in the death of two US Marines, there have so far been no violent incidents in Pakistan, but anti-US demonstrations have been held in different cities of Pakistan.

8.The wave of protests till now has been against the film itself and the US for allowing it to be produced and clips to be disseminated from the US, but clerics in different countries, while calling for the protests to be peaceful, have been demanding a UN ban on any insult to sacred symbols of Islam and other religions. They have been saying that insults to Islam and its Holy Prophet cannot be justified under the pretext of freedom of expression. Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayyeb, grand imam of Cairo's Al-Azhar, the highest seat of Sunni Muslim learning, underlined the need for an international resolution to "criminalise attacks on Islamic symbols and on those of other religions”. In the days to come, this could become a major issue in the protest campaign of the Muslims .

9.The protests are not showing any signs of subsiding. Our intelligence agencies and police should closely monitor the dissemination of provocative anti-US statements through the Internet and maintain a high level of security for US missions  in New Delhi and other cities. They should be alert to the possibility of copy-cats of the ugly demonstration outside the US Consulate-General in Chennai on September 14,2012. ( 16-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

ANTI-US PROTESTS BY SOME MUSLIMS IN CHENNAI

 

B.RAMAN

A group of about 1500 Muslims staged an ugly demonstration outside the US Consulate-General in Chennai on the evening of September 14,2012, in protest against a derogatory film on Islam and its Holy Prophet  produced by an unidentified person in the US.

2.A video clip from the film with Arabic sub-titles uploaded on to the Internet has led to a series of anti-US demonstrations by Muslims in some countries of the world, with the demonstrations taking violent form in some places. During a demonstration outside the US Consulate in Benghazi in Libya on September 11,2012, a small group of heavily armed Muslims launched a commando-style attack on the Consulate resulting in the death of the US Ambassador to Libya and three other US officials.

3. The involvement of the Ansar al-Sharia (Supporters of the Sharia), an affiliate of Al Qaeda, is suspected in the Benghazi attack. The Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, is also called Ansar al-Sharia. One does not know as yet whether the Ansar suspected in the Benghazi attack is the Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda or whether it is a different organisation of Libyan roots.

4. The Bengaluru Police are presently interrogating 18 educated Muslim youths arrested in Bengaluru, Hubli, Hyderabad and Maharashtra on charges of conspiring to assassinate a number of Hindu personalities believed sympathetic to the Hindutva movement. According to the Bengaluru Police, the Muslim suspects in their custody were self-motivated by visiting the web site of AQAP in Yemen, also known as the Ansar al-Sharia.

5. Muslim fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan and West Asia , including the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the parent organisation of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), responsible for the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai, had called for world-wide anti-US protest rallies against the film by Muslims after the Friday prayers on September 14.Media reports indicate that there was some response to this call in Jammu & Kashmir. Surprisingly and disquietingly, some Muslims of Chennai appear to have responded to this call after the Friday prayers in a local mosque.

6. To quote from the report carried by “The Hindu” on the protest rally in Chennai: “ A protest against controversial American film Innocence of Muslims turned violent on Friday when the US Consulate-General on Anna Salai here was attacked by hundreds of protesters who breached police security cordon with ease. A crowd of 1500 people from the Tamil Nadu Muslim Munnetra Kazhagam (TNMMK) and a few other Muslim outfits targeted the mission. They pelted it with stones, burnt the American flag and pictures of President Barack Obama and damaged CCTV cameras, a police booth and instructions boards for visitors…. A large group raising anti-US slogans marched from outside New College in Royapettah towards the Consulate. Consulate security personnel shut the doors to bar their entry. Iron railings and paintings on the building’s compound wall were ruined. A small group tried to scale the Consulate’s wall on Cathedral Road and damaged the doors and glass panels of the security chamber.”

7. “The Hindu” has further reported as follows: “ The State Intelligence had communicated a specific input on the possibility of an attack on the US Consulate in Chennai. However, the attack on the Consulate caught the police unawares as it was planned and well-organised with the protesters deviating from the original route to reach the target and having come armed with stones. Preliminary investigation revealed that a sizeable number of protesters came from the Tambaram side to join the main group of TMMK agitators. After burning a couple of US flags, they ran towards the Consulate raising slogans and stoned the building. They were joined by a few more youths from the Thousand Lights area.”

8. The details of what happened in Chennai disturbingly resemble what happened in the Azad Maidan in Mumbai last month and what took place in Benghazi on September 11.While a large number of Muslims were peacefully demonstrating or holding a meeting, small groups of violent Muslim youth entered the scene and tried to indulge in violence. While in Mumbai and Chennai, the Muslim youth who indulged in violence were armed only with stones, in Benghazi they carried rifles and rocket-propelled grenades resulting in fatalities.

9. South India has had a history of Islamic radicalism. A founding father of the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) was from Kerala. During the 1990s, a jihadi terrorist organisation called Al Umma was very active in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. It carried out a number of acts of terrorism in Tamil Nadu, including the serial blasts in Coimbatore in February,1998, coinciding with a visit of Shri L.K.Advani, the BJP leader, to that town. The Tamil Nadu Police managed to arrest the leaders of the organisation and prosecute them. It has become dormant as a terrorist organisation, but it is believed that some of those presently associated with the TNMMK were originally associated with Al Umma when it was active.

10. Ten years ago, the Tamil Nadu Police discovered an attempt by a Saudi Arabia based cadre of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) to float a new jihadi organisation in Tamil Nadu called the Muslim Self-Defence Force. It did not make much progress. It was reported that the investigations made by the Police in North India brought out that at least one training/motivational  camp of the Indian Mujahideen was held in Kerala.

11. After the recent anti-Muslim violence in the Rakhine State of Myanmar and our Assam, an organisation based in Hyderabad , Andhra Pradesh, came to notice for disseminating exaggerated accounts of the violence with the help of morphed images. The recent exodus of a large number of our citizens from the North-East working and living in Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad followed dissemination of motivated rumours warning of retaliatory attacks on people from the North-East. The people and cells behind this conspiracy have not yet been identified, arrested and prosecuted. And then, we had the arrest of 18 Muslim suspects with ideological vibrations for AQAP of Yemen.

12. The chain of developments outlined above indicate a web of Islamic radicalism in the South the full ramifications of which seem to have defied detection by the police and the central intelligence agencies. The well-organised and ugly protests outside the US Consulate in Chennai draw attention to the need to unravel and neutralise this web before it gets out of control and embarks on a path of AQAP style jihadi terrorism.( 15-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

WILL PM PRESS AHEAD WITH HIS ECONOMIC DECISIONS?

 

B.RAMAN

The three important economic decisions taken by the Government of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh on September 13 and 14,2012, are not going to herald an economic  miracle for tomorrow.

2. These decisions relate to a significant increase in the price of diesel and permitting foreign direct investment in the civil aviation and retail sectors. The decision on civil aviation was expected by the political class as whole, but that relating to the retail sector was not. The Government’s earlier attempt some months ago to permit FDI in the retail sector had to be given up due to strong opposition from some constituents of the ruling coalition as well as from the opposition BJP.

3. Despite the persisting slide-down in the economy, the Government of Dr.Manmohan Singh was avoiding taking these important decisions till now due to fears of adverse political consequences. Such adverse consequences might have been in the form of a break-up of the ruling coalition and consequent mid-term polls.

4. Another reason for the earlier hesitation of Dr.Manmohan Singh was the lack of enthusiasm for the proposal to permit FDI in the retail sector and to increase the diesel price from Shri A.K.Antony, the Defence Minister, who is perceived to be close to Mrs.Sonia Gandhi and enjoys her total political support despite his lack-lustre performance as the Defence Minister. The strong backing reportedly enjoyed by him from Mrs.Sonia Gandhi  came in the way of the Prime Minister overruling him.

5. Shri Pranab Mukherjee, former Finance Minister, had little access to Mrs.Sonia Gandhi and did not enjoy her confidence. He was, therefore, not in a position to impart strength to Dr.Manmohn Singh in overcoming Shri Antony’s foot-dragging on important issues of economic reforms.

6. The induction of Sri P.Chidambaram, who is believed to enjoy the confidence of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi to the same extent as Shri Antony, has given new confidence to the Prime Minister that he might be able to push ahead with at least some of the economic reforms because Shri Chidambaram shares the Prime Minister’s views on the urgent need for some economic decisions, even if they be controversial, and his views will carry conviction to Mrs.Sonia Gandhi.

7.The immediate significance of the three economic decisions taken are more political than economic. Firstly, the negative drag that Shri Antony used to exercise with the backing of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi has now been neutralised by Shri Chidambaram.

8.Secondly, the Government and the Congress have realised that the impression of policy and governmental paralysis was not only adding to the negative drag on the economy, but was also creating a very poor image of the Government and the party in India and abroad. The “Washington Post’s” negative projection of a worse-than-Hamlet Prime Minister has given a healthy shake-up to the Government.

9. The Government can afford to ignore the negative assessment of the “Time” magazine which is often prejudiced against India. Moreover, “Time” does not enjoy the same attention and respect in international financial circles as the WP does. The WP’s assessment cannot be dismissed lightly as of no consequence.

10.Thirdly, as a result of the shake-up, the Government and the Congress decided to re-launch the stalling economic reforms even if there are negative political consequences. The Government has decided that the fear of a mid-term poll should not be allowed to stand in the way of important policy decisions relating to the economy.

11. Taking the important decisions is only the first step. Going ahead with their implementation despite the demand for a roll-back from coalition allies will be a more important second step. Even in the past, the Government had announced bold decisions, but subsequently abandoned or diluted them because of the threats and demands from the coalition partners. When there is a surge of such threats and demands, the Congress party tries to exercise pressure on the Government to roll back. When faced with mounting pressure from the party, Mrs.Sonia Gandhi had in the past shown a tendency to succumb to it. If she and her Party do it again and pressure the Government to roll back, the resulting loss of face for the Government and the Party could have incalculable consequences for the economy and for the political fortunes of the Congress.

12. There is a lot of unwarranted euphoria on the likely economic impact of the decisions, particularly  those relating to the FDI. It will take at least five years or more for the beneficial economic impact to be felt. There is unlikely to be any poll dividends for the Congress as a result of these decisions.

13.These decisions are required to reverse the economic slide-down in the medium and long-terms. The Government should show a determination to implement them in the national interest even if the political consequences for the Congress may not be beneficial.( 15-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

COMMANDO-STYLE ATTACK ON THE US CONSULATE IN BENGHAZI

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR : PAPER NO.766

B.RAMAN

Since September 11,2012, the 11^th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in the US Homeland, there have been violent incidents outside the US Embassies in Cairo and Sanaa in  Yemen and outside the US Consulate in Benghazi in Libya.

2. The incidents were triggered off by protests by some of the local Muslims against a video clip believed to have been uploaded by an unidentified person in the US projecting Islam and its Holy Prophet in negative colours.

3.According to speculative reports of the British and American media, a person, suspected to be a Coptic Christian of Egyptian origin living in the US is reported to have produced a film on Islam which was shown to a small audience in California in June 2012. A video clip of this with no Arabic sub-titles was allegedly uploaded by him on the Internet on July 1.Nobody in the Islamic world noticed it. Subsequently, he had the same clip uploaded with Arabic sub-titles. It was noticed by an Islamic TV channel of Egypt which drew attention to it. This led to the first demonstration in Cairo. Thereafter, it spread to Benghazi and Sanaa. Demonstrations are being reported from other Islamic countries too.

4.The crowds which demonstrated outside the US Embassies in Cairo and Sanaa were reportedly unarmed. They threw stones  and Molotov cocktails at the security forces guarding the missions whom they tried to overpower in order to pull down the US flag. The security forces were able to control the demonstrators by using tearsmoke.

5. In Benghazi too, outside the US Consulate, there was a similar demonstration against the US by a group of unarmed local Muslims. The US Ambassador  to Libya, Chris Stevens who is based in Tripoli, was then on a visit to  Benghazi and was inside the Consulate. The demonstrators did not appear to have been aware of this.

6. While this demonstration was going on without posing any major problem to the security guards, another group of armed Muslims carrying fire-arms and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) appeared on the scene and launched a commando-style attack on the Consulate. There was a heavy exchange of fire and use of grenades. The armed intruders with others entered the Consulate complex and tried to set fire to the buildings.

7. By the time their attack could be brought under control after four hours, the Ambassador and three other American employees were killed. The circumstances under which they were killed  are not clear.

8. The CNN TV channel quoted State Department officials as saying that the two incidents at the diplomatic missions in Cairo and Benghazi were not related and that  they believed the Benghazi violence was a "clearly planned attack." The CNN quoted a senior official as saying: "It was not an innocent mob.  The video or 9/11 made a handy excuse and could be fortuitous from their perspective but this was a clearly planned military-type attack."

9.On September 10, Al Qaeda had released a video message by Ayman Al-Zawahiri, its Amir, who is an Egyptian, confirming that his No.2  Abu Yahya al-Libi, a Libyan cleric who handled Al Qaeda’s motivational and propaganda work, had been killed in a US Drone strike in Pakistan’s North Waziristan on June 4,2012. The US had announced his death in June itself but Al Qaeda confirmed it only on September 10. This has given rise to speculation that the commando-style attack on the US Consulate might have been in retaliation for the death of the Libyan cleric, but Al Qaeda itself has not come out with any statement on the Benghazi attack so far.

10.The speculation in Benghazi is that the commando-style attack was probably carried out by Ansar al-Sharia (Supporters of the Sharia).The Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which operates from Yemen, has also been calling itself since last year as the Ansar al-Sharia. It is not yet clear whether the Ansar suspected in the Benghazi attack is the same as the Yemen-based wing of Al Qaeda or is an indigenous Libyan organisation.

11. In the protest movement in Egypt that preceded  the resignation of Hosni Mubarak last year, there was no participation by external jihadi elements. It was a purely Egyptian movement with no involvement by Al Qaeda or its supporters. Moreover, the overthrow of Mubarak did not affect the command and control of the Egyptian Army and the Egyptian intelligence, which continued to monitor the activities Al Qaeda. There was no intelligence and security vacuum in Egypt.

12. When Qaddafi put up a stiff resistance to the US-sponsored external intervention to bring about a regime change in Libya, the US and other NATO countries recruited, trained and armed a number of external radical elements for using them against Qaddafi’s army. The brutal massacre of Qaddafi and his aides resulted in a collapse of the command and control of the Libyan Army and intelligence. As a result, there has been a security and intelligence vacuum in Libya. Apparently, taking advantage of this, Al Qaeda and its affiliates have set up sleeper cells in Libya.

13. The  events in the coming days and weeks may take a course similar to what happened in the Islamic world after the publication of caricatures of the Holy Prophet in a Danish journal on September 30,2005. Starting from April 2006, for a little over two years there was a rash of violent incidents in different parts of the Islamic world including an explosion outside the Danish Embassy in Islamabad in June 2008.

14. The present demonstrations are in protest against the film. It is likely that Islamic fundamentalist elements may demand the identification, arrest and prosecution of the person living in the US who produced the film. The US may not agree to this just as the Danish Government refused to act against the cartoonist on grounds of his freedom of expression. The US refusal to act might become a cause for further anger.(13-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

 

NAMO VS NAMO

 

B.RAMAN

Shri Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, never allows grass to grow under his feet. While the Congress Party is still confused as to what should be its strategy and tactics for the forthcoming elections to the State Assembly later this year, Shri Modi, like the proverbial hare, has already started racing ahead. He has inaugurated his and the BJP’s State election campaign with a powerful indictment of the state of corruption in the Government of India.

2. It is evident Shri Modi will have a two-pronged election strategy which will focus on his record as the Chief Minister and highlight what he projects as the injustices and step-motherly policies of the Government of India towards his Government.

3.Will the Congress tortoise be able to catch up with the hare and overtake it ultimately? The answer to this will depend not only on its stamina and winner instinct, but also on its ability to project before the voters of Gujarat a credible alternative to Shri Modi in terms of individuals and policies. One sees no clear sign of any logical thinking  in the Congress.

4.The 2009 elections to the Lok Sabha clearly showed that demonization and denigration of an individual does not bring in poll dividends. Instead of placing before the voters an attractive policy alternative package, Shri L.K.Advani focussed the entire campaign  of the BJP on an attempt to demonise and denigrate Dr.Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. It did not pay.

5. Similarly, the BJP’s current campaign of demonization and denigration of the Prime Minister is not showing signs of bringing in any significant poll return. The people are increasingly disillusioned with the Prime Minister and the Congress because of their perceived sins of commission and omission.

6. This disillusionment with the Congress and the PM has not been translated into a fascination for the BJP and its leaders. There has been a definitive corrosion of the support enjoyed by the Congress, but this corrosion has not been to the significant benefit of the BJP and its leaders. There are no signs of a gathering pro-BJP wave in the country. Disillusionment with the Congress and scepticism towards the BJP are the defining characteristics of the current public mood in the country.

7.Against this background, the Congress has to realise that any election campaign in Gujarat based on a continuing demonization of NaMo for the communal violence of 2002 will bring in ever-diminishing returns. The time has come to jettison the policy of demonization of NaMo.

8. The Congress election campaign has to be based on a clear understanding of the ground situation in Gujarat and the electoral strategy of NaMo and his supporters in his party and from the diaspora.

9. NaMo enjoys three formidable assets---- his record as an effective administrator, his achievements in developing the economy of the State and his reputation as an honest leader who has not allowed corruption to flourish under his watch. The public perception of his record as the Chief Minister is going to be his best poll ally.

10. But NaMo is not a paragon of all positive qualities. There are two negatives in his personality and leadership which have not been brought out by the Congress. The first is his drive to build a personality cult around him by skilfully exploiting the modern means of communication and the virtual world and the backing of a group of IT-savvy individuals from the diaspora  about whose background and credentials the voters of this country know very little.

11. The entourage of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi and Dr.Manmohan Singh is a relatively open book. One cannot say the same thing about the entourage of NaMo, particularly the diaspora members of his entourage. This entourage, with the diaspora members driving from the back seat, has been seeking to bulldoze NaMo’s way forward towards winning another term as the Chief Minister and ultimately occupying the Chair of the Prime Minister.

12. This lack of transparency regarding his entourage and particularly of the NRIs who have flocked to his flag should be a matter of concern to the right-thinking persons in our country. In the attempt to build a personality cult around him and make him seem 15 feet tall, his entourage has been quietly trying to identify and undermine the potential challengers to his way forward.

13. NaMo has been in power for a decade now. Has the time not come to discourage the trend towards a personality cult by trying an alternate leader? An accepted principle in many democracies is that a personality cult would prove detrimental to the health of democracy. That is why many democracies have put a limit to the number of years  a head of Government or State can hold office. There are two-term limits in the US and France where the head of State/Government is directly elected. Even in authoritarian societies such as Russia and China there are two-term limits. No leader, however brilliant, should be allowed to occupy the chair of the head of the Government for a long period.

14. In countries such as the UK, where the head of Government is not directly elected, there is no constitutionally laid down limit, but their political culture sees to it that there is no bulldozed attempt to build a personality cult. The most worrisome aspect of NaMo’s personality is not his attitude to the religious minorities which has become more benign and positive now than it seemed to be in 2002, but his attempt, with the backing of his entourage, to build a personality cult around him.

15.Secondly,NaMo’s economic achievements seem so dazzling that nobody has gone into them in depth. Who are the ultimate beneficiaries of his economic policies---- certain corporate houses or the common people as a whole? Is his gathering support thanks to people-friendly policies or corporate-friendly ones? These are questions that have not been posed and discussed in depth.

16. Nobody can question NaMo’s achievements. They are there for all to see. But, nobody can fail to be disturbed by the personality cult being built around him. And one should not hesitate to raise questions about the ultimate beneficiaries of his economic policies.

17. Has the time come to seek an alternative to NaMo and his policies? That question has to be addressed in the weeks ahead before the Gujarat elections. ( 13-9-12)

 

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW WINDS OF JIHAD: SIMPLIFIED & FROM THE GLOBAL TO THE LOCAL

 

 

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.765

B.RAMAN

As the world observes the 11^th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland, one hears less and less the pre-2001 calls of Al Qaeda for a global jihad against the Crusaders and the Jewish people and for the re-establishment of an Islamic Caliphate and one hears more and more calls for local jihads against local rulers and local enemies of Islam. This is so whether it be in Pakistan or Yemen or Somalia, or Iraq or  Algeria or Mali or Nigeria. Al Qaeda talks no more of the International Islamic Front formed by Osama bin Laden in 1998.

2.The call now is no longer for an international Caliphate. It is now for myriad Islamic States ruled according to the Sharia and for waging a jihad against what they look upon  as the pollution of Islam by enemies of Islam masquerading as Muslims. Whereas in the past, the Christians and the Jewish people were projected as the principal non-Muslim enemies of Islam, the Shias are now projected as an equally despicable enemy to be ruthlessly eliminated.

3.One increasingly finds this growing anti-Shia dimension of the Sunni/Wahabi terrorist ideology in Pakistan. The Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), an affiliate of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, which has been spearheading the jihad against the Shias in Balochistan, Karachi, Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab and the Kurram Agency, has declared them “wajib-ul-qatl”  meaning deserving of death.

4. Pakistan has had a long history of anti-Shia violence from its birth in 1947. In Afghanistan too, when the Taliban was in power before October 2001, there were brutal attacks on Hazara Shias. But this anti-Shia violence has now acquired an ideological approval and a religious sanction.

5. The worrisome development is that Pakistan’s elite and other so-called liberal sections, which occasionally even condemn the atrocities against the Balochs and the Ahmadias, have been silent on the atrocities against the Shias. Newspapers like the “Daily Times” of Lahore do draw attention to the anti-Shia acts of terrorism, but large sections of the media are maintaining a silence.

6.Over 300 Shias are reported to have been massacred since the beginning of this year, many of them dragged out of buses, lined up and shot dead. The so-called elite of Pakistan, barring some individual exceptions, has hardly protested.

7. The systematic and ruthless elimination of the Shias by the pro-Al Qaeda LEJ and the inaction of the State against the perpetrators are accepted as unavoidable by the elite and other liberal elements. The human rights of the Shias do not get the same support as the human rights of other minority groups.

8.Even the judiciary’s tolerant attitude to the perpetrators of anti-Shia atrocities in the name of pure Islam has escaped strong condemnation. On September 11, 2012, a Lahore court granted bail to Lashkar-e-Jhangvi’s chief Malik Ishaq, who had been recently arrested by the police for instigating attacks on the Shias. The leniency of the court reminded one of a similar lenient attitude by the judiciary towards Hafiz Mohammad Sayeed of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) last year, when he was ordered to be released from police custody despite the evidence of his role in the organisation of the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.

9. The increasing violence by pro-Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan has taken two forms----against the security forces by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and against the Shias by the LEJ. These are Pakistani organisations dominated largely by Punjabi Sunnis and Sunni Pashtuns.

10. There has, however, been a decrease in violence against Pakistani targets and interests by the Arab-dominated Al Qaeda operating from North Waziristan and headed by Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian. After the death of Osama bin Laden (OBL) in the US raid on Abbottabad on May1/2 last year, the Arab Al Qaeda suffered one more major set-back on June 4,2012, when its No.2 and ideologue Abu Yahya al-Libi was killed in a US Drone strike in North Waziristan. His death was confirmed by Zawahiri in a special video message released on September 11, 2012, coinciding with the 11^th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks in the US Homeland.al-Libi was a cleric and a good religious motivator and his absence is being felt by Al Qaeda based in North Waziristan.

11. The repeated successes of the Drone Strikes are having an impact on Al Qaeda of North Waziristan, which has not been able to carry out any major strike in the West for nearly two years now.

12. Next to the Afghan and Pakistani Talibans, the LET and the LEJ, the most capable and lethal terrorist organisation today is the Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).Its reach, motivation, reservoir of cadres for suicide terrorism and lethality  were demonstrated on the 9/11 anniversary on September 11.A car bomb targeting Yemeni Defence Minister Major General Muhammad Nasir Ahmad exploded outside the Prime Minister’s office in Sanaa , killing at least five bodyguards but the Minister reportedly escaped. The attack was reportedly in retaliation for  the death of AQAP’s No.2  Said al-Shehri, in an attack in eastern Yemen last week.

13. The AQAP, which is also called the Ansar al-Shria (Supporters of the Sharia), operates from Yemen. It used to be headed by Anwar al-Awlaki, a US citizen of Yemeni origin. After his death in a US Drone strike in September last year, it is reportedly led by Nasir al Wuhayshi, who was the chief of staff of OBL in Kandahar before 9/11.

14.The AQAP differs from Al Qaeda of North Waziristan of Afghan Mujahideen and OBL vintage in the following respects:

( a ). It focusses its recruitment drive through the Net on English-knowing young Muslims of non-Arab extraction. Many young  non-Arab Muslims, including Pakistanis and members of the Pakistani diaspora in the West, are now believed to be going to the training camps of the Ansar in Yemen and not to the training camps of the old jihadi organisations of Afghan vintage in the Af-Pak region.

( b ). It advises its supporters in different countries to adopt not the catastrophic or mass casualty terrorism favoured by OBL and his advisers, but a simplified form of jihad that could be easily or self-learnt, with the use of modus operandi such as assassinations of targeted individuals, driving a motor car over the target etc.

( C ).It produces its propaganda and motivational literature in English and disseminates them through the Net.

15. The available details of the interrogation of the 18 Muslims arrested in Bengaluru, Hubli, Hyderabad and Maharashtra indicates more the influence of AQAP and the Ansar on their motivation and operational thinking than that of jihadi organisations of Afghan vintage.

16. The Al Qaeda of Afghan vintage was never able to win much influence over young Indian Muslims. The motivation of these 18 Muslims through the Net would indicate that the AQAP/Ansar may be having a greater impact on the minds of the educated and English-proficient young members of our Muslim community.

17. While continuing to keep up their watch on the Pakistani jihadi organisations, our intelligence agencies should pay more attention to the new winds of jihad from Yemen. (12-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)