PM SHOULD GIFT GENERATORS TO MYANMAR

B.RAMAN

Reports from Myanmar indicate that during his visit to Myanmar next week, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will be meeting Aung San Suu Kyi at Yangon (Rangoon) on May 29,2012. She has reportedly re-scheduled a visit to Bangkok, her first visit abroad since her release from house-arrest, in order to be available at Yangon for meeting our Prime Minister.

2. This gesture of hers is indicative of the importance attached by her to Myanmar’s relations with India despite her past unhappiness over India’s close relations with the military junta that ruled the country till the end of 2010.

3. The Prime Minister’s visit comes at a time when there are reports of spreading public unrest over severe power-cuts in many towns. The unrest in the form of street demonstrations first started in Mandalay and from there has since  spread to Pegu, Monywa and Yangon.The protesters have not taken the permission of the Police for holding demonstrations which is an offence, but the Government has chosen to ignore the violation of the law in order not to provoke them further. The protesters have been using their restricted access to Facebook and Twitter to call upon people in other towns to demonstrate.

4.It is not yet clear whether the street demonstrations are spontaneous or have been instigated by anti-democracy hawks in the Army to weaken the position of the Thein Sein Government which has been steadily moving towards greater political reforms and opening-out to the world.

5. However, in an attempt to project the demonstrations as spontaneous, the protesters have accused  the former military government  of selling off natural gas reserves to China and pocketing the profits, while  75 per cent of the local people have no access to electricity. Electricity consumption in  Myanmar averages 104 kilowatts an hour per person—one of the lowest in the world.

6.Speaking during the opening of a local office of her National League For Democracy (NLD) on May 22,2012, Suu Kyi said that the  power shortages were the  direct result of government mismanagement and called upon the Government  to give priority to increasing the power supply and to creating jobs for the unemployed youth.

7.The Government announced  on May 23  that it was purchasing  six generators from U.S.-based Caterpillar Inc., which will be air-freighted within a week, and two 25-megawatt gas-turbines to be bought from General Electric Co. The Government has blamed the Kachin insurgency for severely damaging electricity production and distribution.

8.During his visit, our Prime Minister should offer to help the Myanmar Government on an emergency basis to increase the power supply and also gift a plane-load of generators of the required capacity needed by the Government. The Prime Minister could also offer a special credit to enable the Government to repair the damages to the power infrastructure. ( 26-5-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

MODERNISATION OF NATIONAL SECURITY APPARATUS

B.RAMAN

The Government of India has taken the first important step towards the modernisation of our national security apparatus by commissioning a study of the apparatus as it stands today and as it ought to be to counter likely future threats from other States and non-State actors.

2.The exhaustive study, lasting nearly 10 months, was undertaken by a special Task Force headed by Shri Naresh Chandra, who has had the distinction of having served as the Defence Secretary, the Home Secretary and the Cabinet Secretary as well as the Governor of Rajasthan and our Ambassador to the US during the critical period following our nuclear tests of 1998. He is, therefore, no stranger to the internal and external aspects of national security and to the linkages between national security and national strength. The report of the Task Force was submitted to the Prime Minister on May 23,2012.

3. The exercise has now moved into the second and even more important step of implementation. Any exercise of this nature, however comprehensive, will be fruitful only if the acceptable recommendations are quickly identified and prioritised and action taken for their timely implementation.

4. The exercise entrusted by the Government to the Task Force was not a post-mortem necessitated by any national security failure or set-back. It was a forward-looking exercise meant to visualise the likely  national security tasks of the future keeping in view the evolving threats to national security as well as our requirements as a major power in the years to come.

5. The exercise undertaken by the Task Force had its tactical as well as strategic components. The tactical component related to identifying the gaps and deficiencies of today in national security management and recommending measures to remove them.

6. The strategic component had an element of vision about it. How is the security scenario likely to evolve in the foreseeable future? What kind of new threats and vulnerabilities are likely to arise for which we have to be prepared? How to create a modern national security apparatus befitting India’s status as a major power and how to find the resources for it? These were some of the questions that have been sought to be addressed by the Task Force.

7. Such exercises are undertaken regularly in the US and other Western countries every time a new Head of State or Government assumes office. This is the first time that such an exercise has been undertaken in our country since we became independent in 1947. It is to be hoped that this will become a regular feature and that such an exercise to ensure a steady modernisation of our national security apparatus will be undertaken at least once in 10 years.

8. National strength and national security go hand in hand. Without comprehensive national strength there cannot be comprehensive national security and vice versa. Resource priorities for the modernisation of the national security apparatus in a developing country like India cannot be the same as in Western developed countries.

9. In a country like ours the requirements of the people have to have the first priority. Even while not neglecting this, one has to find the resources for constantly upgrading our national security apparatus. How to do this? That is a difficult and complex question to which the answer has to be found by the political leadership on the basis of the various options identified by the professional experts---serving and retired. It is important to work towards a national political and intellectual consensus on the need for a time-bound modernisation of our national security apparatus and for finding the required material and human resources even while not overlooking the priorities for the common man.

10. While it is for the Government to decide on the drill to be followed for the implementation of the Task Force report, three aspects to be kept in view may be underlined:

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 Firstly, the need to take the public into confidence to the extent possible on the main features of this exercise so that it has broad public support.

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Secondly, the need to ensure institutional and political consensus at every stage of the implementation.

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Thirdly, the need for a standing mechanism to monitor the implementation process.

11. It would be neither possible nor advisable to make the entire report of the Task Force available in the public domain. Its assessment of the external security scenario is sensitive and could have a negative impact on our diplomacy if made available in the public domain. But its assessment of the internal security scenario and resource constraints could be made available in the public domain after suitable editing.

12. The implementation process cannot be satisfactory unless all Government departments and institutions that might be affected by the implementation positively or negatively co-operate in the implementation exercise. If they co-operate only in respect of those recommendations that are favourable them and oppose those that are not favourable, the implementation will be half-hearted. A political consensus at the central level and between the Centre and the States would smoothen the implementation process.

13. The monitoring of the implementation by the National Security Council Secretariat or by any other suitable mechanism would ensure that the recommendations do not fall in limbo. ( 25-5-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75  )

R&AW: AN OCCUPATIONAL HAZARD

B.RAMAN

The R&AW has been the target of considerable criticism in sections of our media over what they have perceived as its serious blunder in disseminating a HUMINT report regarding plans of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Pakistani terrorist organisation, to carry out major acts of catastrophic terrorism in Gujarat and Mumbai. There has even been a campaign of ridicule against the organisation which has been sought to be projected as nincompoop.

2. “The Hindu” of May 11,2012, has carried an eight-column report on Page 15 under the title
“R&AW Left With Egg on Its Face As Terror Plot Unravels” contributed jointly by Praveen Swami, who enjoys a tremendous reputation in media circles of New Delhi, and his colleague Muhammad Ali.

3. To quote from the first para of the report: “ The Research & Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence service, is facing allegations of incompetence after three Lashkar-e-Toiba operatives who, it claimed, were about to conduct  a suicide squad operation in Western India turned out to be living at their home in Lahore and to be businessmen, not terrorists.” This gives the essential gist of the story.

4.There has been a negative projection of the R&AW not only by “The Hindu”, but also by others. Along with its HUMINT report, the R&AW had disseminated pics of the three alleged terrorists of the LET who, according to it, had infiltrated into India along with two others to carry out the feared acts of terrorism. The Mumbai Police correctly released to the public the salient points of the report along with the pics as received from the R&AW. These pics were carried by a journal of Delhi on its web site. The three persons concerned, living in Lahore, thereupon appeared in public in Lahore and sought to ridicule the R&AW.

5. The definite embarrassment to the R&AW has been sought to be exploited  in Pakistan for discrediting it. It has been projected as an example of the kind of baseless reports which the agency disseminates regarding terrorism allegedly emanating from Pakistan. The main objective of the campaign in Pakistan has been to discredit the R&AW in the eyes of the Indian public and the international community and to project its reporting on Pakistan-based terrorism as untrustworthy.

6. The brunt of the criticism in the Indian media has been over what many have seen as the propensity of the R&AW to disseminate uncorroborated reports and create false alarms and its perceived naivete in walking into a trap laid from Pakistan.

7.There are certain standard operating procedures followed by intelligence and security agencies all over the world regarding the handling of HUMINT or TECHINT reports which speak of an imminent act of terrorism. The most important point of this procedure is: Act on the report as if it is true until or unless it is proved to be false. Hence, all intelligence agencies immediately disseminate such reports with appropriate qualifications and simultaneously undertake a verification to establish the veracity of the report. If the veracity is not established, they call off the alert.

8. That is exactly what the R&AW has done and it would be totally uncharitable and unprofessional to find fault with it and ridicule it for doing what it was expected to do under the standard operating procedures. If one reprimands and ridicules an agency for doing what it was required to do because its report proved to be incorrect, it could hesitate in future to sound alerts on the receipt of HUMINT reports and that could prove catastrophic.

9. That is what those orchestrating the anti-R&AW campaign from Pakistan--- whether the Inter-Services Intelligence or the LET or both—want---- to create in the R&AW a mental hesitation in disseminating future HUMINT reports so that they can take advantage of it for carrying out an act of terrorism. The R&AW officers should not let themselves be inhibited from future reporting because of this campaign against it in Pakistan as well as in sections of the Indian media.

10. At the same time, there are some disturbing follow-up questions arising from this incident that need to be attended to. The first question is who was the human source--- is he a trans-border source or one based in Pakistan or some third country? If he is a trans-border source, is he based in India or Pakistan? The second question is, is he a new and untested source or is he an old and tested source?

11. If he is a new and untested Pakistani source, all that the R&AW has to do is to discard him. If he is an Indian source, there could be reason to suspect that he is a Pakistani mole. He would need to be arrested and interrogated .

12. If the source---whether Indian or Pakistani---is an old source all his past reports need to be re-examined in order to see whether any action had been taken against  any Indian national on the basis of reports from this source who has now turned out to be tainted.

13. The other aspect needing attention is how did those behind the campaign in Pakistan notice so quickly the pics released by the Mumbai Police, unless they were expecting this to happen, and exploited it to embarrass the R&AW. This would clearly show a well-planned and well-executed operation to damage the reputation of the R&AW.

14.Normally, it may not be possible to carry out such operations without the support of accomplices in India. Are there such accomplices who played a role in this?

15.Incidents such as these are occupational hazards in the intelligence profession. This is not the first time this has been happening. We have had such incidents in the days of  Khalistani  terrorism. This is not the last time this will be happening.

16. There is no need for the R&AW to be defensive or be apologetic about it. It should take it in its stride and hold a thorough enquiry into the whole affair to avoid the possibilities of such incidents in future. ( 12-5-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

MRS.CLINTON & KOLKATA’S YOUTH: PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AT ITS BEST

B.RAMAN

Thousands of TV  viewers in India----and possibly in the US too----- watched enthralled on the morning of May 7,2012, what the Americans describe as a Town Hall meeting between Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State who was on a visit to Kolkata, and some youth of the city in a historic local school moderated by Barkha Dutt, India’s well-known TV journalist.

2.It was an exercise in grass-roots democracy in which sections of the public have an opportunity of questioning a political leader in public about issues of interest and concern to them. It was also an exercise in public diplomacy in which a political leader takes advantage of the opportunity provided by such interactions to explain his or her thinking and views on issues of public concern.

3.The tradition of Town Hall interactions, which was common in the initial years after the birth of the United States of America, was revived during the presidency of Bill Clinton and is increasingly followed by travelling US leaders during their travels inside the country as well as abroad. It provides an opportunity to the public to assess the mettle of the leader.

4. The Town Hall meetings differ from other gatherings and interactions in the sense that the interacting leader, who exposes himself or herself to the public, has to answer their questions and participate in a discussion with them without the help of aides. It is largely an extempore interaction in which only a well-informed and articulate leader can impress the public and carry conviction to them.

5.The format of Hillary Clinton’s Town Hall meeting had an opening statement read out from a prepared script, a warming-up discussion with Barkha and discussions with individuals in the audience moderated by Barkha.

6. The success of a Town Hall gathering as an exercise in grass-roots democracy and public diplomacy depends on the self-confidence of the leader, who chooses to expose himself or herself to the Town Hall, as well as of the moderator. Without a skillful moderator, who prepares himself or herself well for the interaction and who does not allow himself or herself to be overawed by the occasion, Town Hall meetings can prove to be damp squibs

7.I have seen on TV many of the Town Hall meetings of Bill and Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama and have no hesitation in saying that Mrs.Clinton’s Kolkata Town Hall was one of the best one has seen.

8.The US Consulate in Kolkata needs to be complimented for requesting Barkha to moderate the Town Hall discussion. One cannot think of any other Indian TV personality who would have had the required knowledge and self-confidence to moderate the discussion in a manner that kept the focus on the personality of Mrs.Clinton, her command of facts and the intelligence of the young audience, which did not show any sign of nervousness in questioning the visiting US leader.

9.Both Mrs.Clinton and Barkha are epitomes of panache and poise which were evident throughout the interaction that lasted nearly 75 minutes. I did not notice a single question –however controversial---that was sought to be evaded by Mrs.Clinton. She was inoffensively frank and charmingly diplomatic at the same time. Whenever her replies seemed incomplete – as on the issue of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s opposition to foreign direct investment in the retail trade---- Barkha politely prompted Mrs. Clinton to come out with her mind on the issue.

10.Mrs.Clinton, Barkha and the youthful audience made it into a scintillating exercise. One only hopes that our leaders, who tend to be public shy and tongue-tied, watched it on the TV. Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi were very good in extempore interactions with the public ---whether in urban or rural areas, whether outside their house or during their travels.

11.In my younger days I remember seeing Gandhiji and other leaders of our Independence struggle interacting with the public. Traditions of such interactions have disappeared from our political landscape. Our political leaders of today---baring a few exceptions---- give the impression of avoiding the public which put them in power.

12.It is hoped that the Town Hall meeting of Mrs.Clinton would create in them a desire for more direct interactions with the people. They should come out of their shell and expose themselves to the gaze and relentless questioning of the people.

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India )

FRANCOIS HOLLANDE---THE NEW FRENCH PRESIDENT

B.RAMAN

When Francois Mitterand, the then leader of the French Socialist Party, was elected the French President in 1981 defeating Giscard d'Estaing from the right of the political spectrum,Indira Gandhi, the then Prime Minister, had reasons to be concerned.

2.The French Right always had greater warmth for her and India than the French Left. She remembered how Georges Pompidou, who succeeded Gen.Charles de Gaulle as the President, and his Minister For Culture, Andre Malraux, stood by her and India during the exodus of millions of refugees from the then East Pakistan to India in 1971.Pompidou sent Malraux on a visit to the refugee camps as a mark of humanitarian solidarity with India.

3. She also remembered with gratitude the first steps towards a strategic partnership between India and France under the Presidentship of Giscard. The two flagships of this partnership were the close Indo-French co-operation in the nuclear and space fields and the co-operation between the external intelligence agencies of the two countries in collecting intelligence about developments in the Indian Ocean region.

4. She also remembered ---but with embarrassment--- how the French Left---particularly the Socialists--- was embarrassed by her proclamation of the Emergency in 1975 and went out of its way to help George Fernandes and his wife Leela when they tried to evade arrests by her Government.The French Right too was embarrassed by the Emergency, but it did not show it in public and .did not allow it to affect the relations between the two countries.

5. Of the French leftist parties, only the Communist Party, taking its cue from Moscow, kept quiet on the Emergency,but the Socialist Party mde no secret of its discomfort over the violations of human rights and the trampling of democracy  by Indira Gandhi during the Emergency.

6.It was, therefore, not surprising that when Mitterand became the President in 1981, there was an ill-concealed unease in both New Delhi and Paris as to what impact the lingering bad taste of the Emergency in the French Socialist Party circles would have on bilateral relations. It spoke well of the political maturity of both Indira Gandhi   and Mitterand that they did not allow this to come in the way of the developing bilateral relations.But there was a difference.

7. Warmth and substance were the defining characteristics of Indo-French relations under Pompidou and Giscard. The warmth continued under Mitterand too, but the substance became less noticeable.The  co-operation in the nuclear and space fields continued, but the intelligence co-operation tended to get diluted.

8.Mitterand developed a good personal equation with Indira and Rajiv both of whom paid successful visits to France which were reciprocated by him.Mitterrand understood the importance of India as a market for the French aircraft  industry. He was attracted and he admired the Indian democracy. He was uncomfortable with what was going on in China particulrly after the Tianenmen Square massacre.India stood as a shining light in comparison with China.

9.But, still, he was not convinced of the importance of a substantial strategic relationship between India and France.In bilateral relations, warmth alone is not sufficient.Without substance, warmth serves only a  limited purpose.

10.Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy who succeeded Mitterand after he completed his term in 1995, restored the badly-needed substance to Indo-French relations.They attached as much importasnce to India as they did to China---if not more.They supported India's aspirations in the nuclear and space fields.Chirac refrained from creating difficulties for India after it carried out the 1998 nuclear tests.

11.Sarkozy became a very unpopular leader in France.He was hated because of his perceived arrogance, lack of sensitivity and other negative qualities. It is said that Francois Hollande has now been elected by the French people as the President not because he is Hollande, but because he is not Sarkozy.

12.But, Hollande is an unknown quantity even to the French. He has hardly held any important Government position. He has hardly ever made any important political statements on international relations. He has never been known as a man of vision. He is a good man, a noble soul.But that alone is not sufficient in leadership. The ability to think far ahead and to give practical shape to one's thinking is important too.

13.He is equally an unknown quantity for us in India too. The Fench are a warm people---unusually warm if you can speak to them in French.One can expect with hope that he will be warm towards India like Sarkozy, Chirac,Mitterand, Giscard and Pompidou.But will he neglect the substance that was the characteristic of the days of the Right and let it be frittered away due to less interest in India?

14.One has to wait for the days to come to find a comforting answer to this question. (7-5-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )