B.RAMAN
July 19,2005: Kai-Fu Lee, a well-known Chinese computer expert working for Microsoft in the US, crossed over into Google to help it establish an office in China---reportedly on an annual salary of US $ 13 million. Lee announced his switch-over in his Chinese language web site as follows: “I choose Google. I choose China.” Microsoft filed a suit against Lee. The court ruled on September 13,2005, that while Lee could not share with Google the information acquired by him while serving in Microsoft, there would be no bar to his helping Google in setting up a presence in China. Under a compromise reached by Google and Microsoft in 2006, the latter agreed to lift restrictions imposed by it on Lee.
2.January 27,2006:Google’s China service called Google.cn was launched. Lee, who headed the office, helped Google in recruiting a large number of Chinese computer experts. It was reported at that time that in return for the Chinese permission to open its services in China, Google had agreed that it would abide by the rules of censorship laid down by the Chinese Government. Soon after Google.cn started functioning, frictions allegedly developed in its interactions with the Chinese authorities.
3.The “Fortune” magazine (April 15,2011) reported in a special article on Google in China as follows: “ Google had hoped that its decision to create a search engine in the .cn domain -- one that followed government rules of censorship -- would lead to a level playing field. But even as Google rolled out its .cn web address, there were indications that its compromise would not satisfy the Chinese government. Unexplained outages still occurred. (Meanwhile, Google's competitor Baidu seemed to hum along unscathed.) And not long after Google got its operating license in December 2005, the Chinese declared that the license was no longer valid, charging that it wasn't clear whether Google's activities made it an Internet service or a news portal. (Foreigners could not operate the latter.) Google then began a year-and-a-half-long negotiation to restore the license.”
4. In June 2007, the Chinese Government restored Google’s operating license. Neither the Chinese authorities nor Google shared with the public information regarding the conditions, if any, under which its licence was restored. Had Google agreed to continue to abide by Chinese internet censorship rules?
5.In the meanwhile, allegations started surfacing that Google’s management trusted its American employees more than its Chinese employees. It became apparent that Google recruited Lee to make use of his China knowledge and contacts, but did not allow him an unrestricted role in operational management. He was allegedly a glorified head subject to back-seat driving by Americans enjoying the confidence of the Google management in the US.
6. To quote from the “Fortune” article on how Google was coping with increasing Chinese demands for censorship: “A demand would come from a government ministry to take down 10 items; Google would typically take down seven and hope that the compromise resolved the matter. Sometimes after a few days or weeks Google would quietly restore links it had censored. Every five months Google's policy-review committee in China would meet to make sure it was filtering the minimum it could possibly get away with.”
7.“Fortune” added: “For all the progress, some Google executives were beginning to think that its great China compromise wasn't working. A turning point came in 2008, the year China hosted the Olympics. In the run-up to its turn in the international spotlight, China apparently decided to increase its restrictions. It demanded that in addition to censoring the .cn results, Google purge objectionable links from the Chinese-language version of Google.com. That, of course, was unacceptable to Google -- it would mean that it was acting as an agent of repression for Chinese-speaking people all over the world, including in the U.S. Other search engines, including Microsoft's, agreed to such demands. But Google stalled, hoping that after the Olympics the Chinese would back off. They did not. The demands for censorship became broader and more frequent.”
8.Towards the end of 2009, after discovering that the Chinese security services had been hacking into Google services for allegedly stealing personal data of Chinese using Google services, the Google management in the US decided not to accept any longer Chinese demands for censorship and to close down the services of Google.cn .
9.China responded firmly to Google’s decision not to accept any more censorship on its google.cn search engine and its threat to review and, if left with no other alternative, to close down its operations in China if the censorship and the alleged State-sponsored web snooping continued.
10.The Chinese response was to reiterate the right of the State to impose reasonable restrictions in the interest of security and stability while avoiding any statement or action that might result in a break with Google, which could be bad for the international image of the country. At the same time, the Chinese ruled out any major change in their Internet security policy just because of the threat held out by Google.
11.Jiang Yu, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that China’s policy would continue to be one of encouragement of an open Internet under proper regulations. She added: “The Internet is open in China, where the Government always encourages its development and has created a favorable environment for its healthy development. China, like other countries, will regulate the Internet industry in line with the law. China welcomes international Internet companies to conduct business within the country according to law."
12.In a statement on its official blog site, David Drummond , Google's corporate development and chief legal officer, said that the company intended to "review the feasibility of our business operations in China." According to him, its disputes with the Chinese Government and unidentified attacks targeting Google's services in China forced the company to make the review and possibly to "shut down Google.cn" and potentially its China offices.
13.While reiterating the right of the State to impose reasonable restrictions, the Chinese authorities strongly denied that Governmental agencies had any hand in cyber attacks on Google. The spokesperson of the Foreign Office pointed out that Chinese laws "prohibit hacker attacks in any form."
14.Wang Chen, Director of China's State Council Information Office, said on January 14,2010, in an interview to the “People’s Daily”: “China firmly opposes cyber attacks because China itself is a victim of such attacks. Every country needs to effectively regulate the Internet and to make sure their own problems on the web do not affect other countries. Internet security has become a significant problem that does not only involve China but also other countries."
15.Comments made by Chinese non-governmental analysts and Internet users made two points. Firstly, the decision of the Google’s executives to review the continuance of its operations in China appeared to have been triggered off by its failure to make a commercial breakthrough in China after nearly four years of its operations in China and by its inability to face the competition of Chinese search engines, which continued to enjoy a monopoly of the Chinese market. Instead of admitting its commercial inadequacies, it was trying to blame the alleged web censorship and snooping for its decision to review its future operations. They accused Google of looking for moral scapegoats to cover up its commercial failure. In this connection, they pointed out that the so-called censorship regulations were there even in 2006 when Google entered the Chinese market. It did not find anything morally wrong with them at that time, but after its failure to break through in the local market, it started talking of morality issues by making a hue and cry over censorship after having informally accepted censorship for nearly four years.
16. Secondly, they alleged that Google was guilty of double standards. They pointed out that there were regulations in the US prohibiting access to children to pornographic sites. Similarly, after 9/11, to prevent terrorists from having access to pictures and other information which could be useful for planning a terrorist strike, the US Government had been asking Google to remove certain photographs and other materials from the web. Google found nothing wrong in such requests or instructions emanating from the US security agencies and carried out their wishes, but when Chinese agencies issued similar instructions they were accused of coming in the way of the free use of the Internet.
17.The Chinese were hoping that ultimately Google would realise that it had over-reacted to the difficulties faced by it in China and would decide to continue its operations in China in its long-term business interests. However, if Google stuck to its threat and decided to wind up its operations after the proposed review, the Chinese were prepared to face it. They made it clear to Google that they would not be intimidated by its threats to close down its operations in China. They were confident that any decision of Google to wind up would not have any impact on China’s relations with the US and on the confidence of international companies in the business environment in China.
18.Both Google and Beijing started looking for a face-saving patch-up, which could enable Google to stay on in China if Beijing promised to undertake a review of its Internet censorship and security regulations, if not immediately, at least in the foreseeable future.
19.This was evident from the statements and comments that emanated from both sides. A spokesperson of Google was reported to have told the Bloomberg news agency on January 16, 2010, that it was operating business as usual in China, was still censoring search results on google.cn and its employees in China were still going to work. The Reuters news agency quoted Google's China office as saying that it would hold talks with the Chinese Government over the next few weeks.
20.The "Global Times", published by the party-owned "People's Daily" group, quoted Google as saying that its planned retreat from China was limited to google.cn, hinting that other services such as android phones and Gmail would not be affected. The "Global Times" further said: "A spokesman of the Google company who declined to be named said that Chinese users will possibly be able to continue using the search engine in Chinese through Google.com. "The only thing we have announced is this: We will be talking to the Chinese authorities about the possibility of operating an uncensored search service within China. If it is impossible to operate an uncensored service within the law, we will close Google.cn," said the spokesman. "We will obviously continue to offer Chinese-language search on our global search engine. Beyond that, we are making no announcements on any other aspect of our business."
21.An article carried by the "Global Times" on January 17, 2010, under the title "Google-China split would be loss for both sides" said: "Google CEO Eric Schmidt had a famous "5,000-year plan" for China, "We will take a long-term view to win in China. The Chinese have 5,000 years of history. Google has 5,000 years of patience in China." Yet Schmidt's promised patience for developing in China seems to be fading away now. The company's "threat" to pull out of China amid concerns over censorship and cyber attacks has shocked the world and brought down Google's share price by 1.3 per cent. The price dip reflects investors' worries over a huge potential business loss from the parting of ways. With its roughly 33.2 per cent share of China's $1 billion search market in 2009, Google's possible exit would signal that it is giving up a booming Chinese market with 350 million Web surfers. Its strategic loss would be greater than its business loss. While other search engines, Chinese and foreign, would predictably grab a slice of the business abandoned by Google, the Internet giant's inability to localize and tackle difficulties in China would be an incalculable loss to its long-term commitment to innovation. Google's "New approach to China," as spelled out in the title of its recent statement, would do no good to China, either. Should the world's most populous nation fail to provide a foothold to the world's top search engine, it would imply a setback to China and serious loss to China's Net culture. The information highway demands not only safe driving but also free flow of traffic. And, in the interests of the majority's right to know, free flow of information should take precedence in a civil society. In a transitional society like China, the existence of censorship can be justified, as allowing full play to multifarious and disorderly search results poses unprecedented risks to vulnerable netizens and social stability. But the Government must face up to the challenge of where and how to put the checkpoints on the highway. A sensitive and shrewd Government should have the vision and savvy to place the right kind of checkpoints at the right place and at the right time for ensuring the free flow of highway traffic as much as possible in the public interest. When Google entered China's market about five years ago, it named itself "Gu Ge" (Grain Song) in Chinese. Google and China going their separate ways would hurt both sides. Let the song of sowing and expectation continue to be heard in China, for a win-win situation. "
22.In an editorial on the subject the next day, the "Global Times" said: "The world's top search engine needs to reflect on why it is lagging behind a local rival in China and why it is not getting as much support from Chinese Web users as it had expected. .....Technology and business should not be affected by political interests and diplomatic concerns. Though Chinese people have called for further steps to be taken by the Government to ensure free flow of information, it is always in their interest to have any foreign company operating in China abide by Chinese laws. Certainly, Google cannot be an exception. A split between Google and China will hurt both sides. And the Internet giant would lose further ground among its supporters if it is made a political football. Conciliatory negotiation may help in solving any issue. The West's arrogance will not work."
23.Apparently, Google decided to close down its google.cn services due to the increasing censorship demands from the Chinese authorities, but to continue its other services. The conditions under which it took this decision were not made public. In the meanwhile, Lee was reported to have quit as the head of the google.cn office in China.
24.In March,2011, reports started circulating that G Mail too was facing difficulties due to alleged interference by the Chinese security agencies. In a press statement on March 21,2011, on difficulties allegedly faced by G Mail subscribers in China, Google said: “There is no technical issue on our side; we have checked extensively. This is a government blockage carefully designed to look like the problem is with Gmail.”
25.In its blog, Google also spoke of “politically motivated” attacks against users. It said: “We’ve noticed some highly targeted and apparently politically motivated attacks against our users. We believe activists may have been a specific target. We’ve also seen attacks against users of another popular social site.”
26.A report published by the “Wall Street Journal” on June 2,2011, indicated continued interference with G Mail services in China from sources allegedly associated with the People’s Liberation Army”.
27.The WSJ report said: “The city of Jinan, which Google described as the origin of the latest attack, sits 400 kilometers south of Beijing and is important technologically and militarily. Jinan houses the headquarters of one of China's eight regional military commands and is home to one of the PLA's technical reconnaissance bureaus. The bureaus serve as arms of China's equivalent to the U.S. National Security Agency, according to a 2009 report from a committee created by Congress to study China.”
28.The WSJ allegations have been denied by the Chinese authorities.
29. The position seems to be as follows: Google was operating two search engines for its users in China. Google.cn was using a server based in China. Google.com was using a server based in the US. From the beginning of its operations in China in 2006, Google was rejecting censorship demands relating to google.com, but informally complying with censorship demands relating to google.cn. When the Chinese censorship demands on google.cn increased and when the Chinese also started demanding censorship of the results of google.com, it decided to transfer google.cn to Hong Kong and to continue to reject censorship of google.com.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Monday, December 12, 2011
Sunday, December 11, 2011
NATION IN CRISIS: OPEN LETTER TO SHRI PRANAB MUKHERJEE
B.RAMAN
Dear Shri Mukherjee,
The nation is in a very serious crisis the like of which we had not seen before since we became independent in 1947.
2.As someone who had served in the Government of India for 27 years under Indira Gandhi, Morarji Desai, Charan Singh,Indira Gandhi again, Rajiv Gandhi, V.P.Singh, Chandra Sekhar and Narasimha Rao, I feel concerned over the depressing state of affairs marked by perceptions of uncontrolled corruption, policy mismanagement, inept governance and a total lack of political and administrative acumen at all levels of the political leadership and the bureaucracy.
3. My depression is rendered even more acute by the intellectual sclerosis that seems to prevail in Governmental and political circles in New Delhi marked by utter insensitivity to people’s anger and incomprehension of the implications of the dangerous drift leading the nation towards a precipice with no return.
4. The youth of the nation is totally alienated. There is no inspiring, wise leadership that can give them cause for hope for the future.
5.A nation without hope is a nation without a future. Nothing illustrates more dramatically and more shockingly the total lack of leadership and wisdom than the manner in which the political leadership has dealt with the anticorruption agitation of Anna Hazare, which has wide support among the youth of the country.
6. Instead of understanding and appreciating the depth of public anger reflected in the Anna movement and taking action to mitigate the anger, the political leadership has been playing games with it, making solemn commitments to persuade Anna to break his fast in August and then ignoring those commitments.
7. One embarrassment after another---the 2 G scam, the Commonwealth Games Scam, the mishandling of the appointment of the Central Vigilance Commissioner, the failure to do the political homework before taking the important decision on allowing foreign direct investment in the retail sector etc--- has not only severely damaged the credibility of the Government, but has also earned for it the contempt of large sections of the people.
8. The shocking nonchalance of the Congress leadership in the face of the spreading confusion reminds one of the Bourbon Kings of France before the 1789 Revolution---having had nothing to learn and nothing to forget.
9. This is the time for robust and wise leadership activism. Instead we find a semi-comatose leadership in the party and the Government. The Prime Minister and the Congress leader Mrs.Sonia Gandhi--- instead of acting to dissipate the darkness engulfing the country--- have chosen to live inside a well where others can't see and hear them and they can't see and hear others.
10. There is a total drought of communications between the leadership and the people. Instead of interacting transparently and vigorously with the people, the media, Team Anna and the youth supporting them, Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi have withdrawn into a shell looking over their shoulders suspiciously at each other worrying what the other is up to.
11. Jawaharlal Nehru often used to speak of administering a shock treatment to a nation in crisis. The time for such a shock treatment has come. Only you can---- with your vast political wisdom, courage and experience--- encourage such a shock treatment in the form of a national coalition to deal with the immediate crisis before things get out of hand and pave the way for fresh, premature elections.
12. The citizens of this country with no axe to grind look up to you to lead.
With warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B.Raman, Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi.
Dear Shri Mukherjee,
The nation is in a very serious crisis the like of which we had not seen before since we became independent in 1947.
2.As someone who had served in the Government of India for 27 years under Indira Gandhi, Morarji Desai, Charan Singh,Indira Gandhi again, Rajiv Gandhi, V.P.Singh, Chandra Sekhar and Narasimha Rao, I feel concerned over the depressing state of affairs marked by perceptions of uncontrolled corruption, policy mismanagement, inept governance and a total lack of political and administrative acumen at all levels of the political leadership and the bureaucracy.
3. My depression is rendered even more acute by the intellectual sclerosis that seems to prevail in Governmental and political circles in New Delhi marked by utter insensitivity to people’s anger and incomprehension of the implications of the dangerous drift leading the nation towards a precipice with no return.
4. The youth of the nation is totally alienated. There is no inspiring, wise leadership that can give them cause for hope for the future.
5.A nation without hope is a nation without a future. Nothing illustrates more dramatically and more shockingly the total lack of leadership and wisdom than the manner in which the political leadership has dealt with the anticorruption agitation of Anna Hazare, which has wide support among the youth of the country.
6. Instead of understanding and appreciating the depth of public anger reflected in the Anna movement and taking action to mitigate the anger, the political leadership has been playing games with it, making solemn commitments to persuade Anna to break his fast in August and then ignoring those commitments.
7. One embarrassment after another---the 2 G scam, the Commonwealth Games Scam, the mishandling of the appointment of the Central Vigilance Commissioner, the failure to do the political homework before taking the important decision on allowing foreign direct investment in the retail sector etc--- has not only severely damaged the credibility of the Government, but has also earned for it the contempt of large sections of the people.
8. The shocking nonchalance of the Congress leadership in the face of the spreading confusion reminds one of the Bourbon Kings of France before the 1789 Revolution---having had nothing to learn and nothing to forget.
9. This is the time for robust and wise leadership activism. Instead we find a semi-comatose leadership in the party and the Government. The Prime Minister and the Congress leader Mrs.Sonia Gandhi--- instead of acting to dissipate the darkness engulfing the country--- have chosen to live inside a well where others can't see and hear them and they can't see and hear others.
10. There is a total drought of communications between the leadership and the people. Instead of interacting transparently and vigorously with the people, the media, Team Anna and the youth supporting them, Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi have withdrawn into a shell looking over their shoulders suspiciously at each other worrying what the other is up to.
11. Jawaharlal Nehru often used to speak of administering a shock treatment to a nation in crisis. The time for such a shock treatment has come. Only you can---- with your vast political wisdom, courage and experience--- encourage such a shock treatment in the form of a national coalition to deal with the immediate crisis before things get out of hand and pave the way for fresh, premature elections.
12. The citizens of this country with no axe to grind look up to you to lead.
With warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B.Raman, Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
CHINA’S STATE-SPONSORED TWEETERS & THEIR PAID TWEETS
B.RAMAN
On December 9,2011, Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, disseminated a report attributed to the Agence France Presse (AFP) regarding how China has been trying to counter criticism of the State and the Communist Party of China and spread of undesirable “rumours” through the Internet by micro-bloggers and other netizens.
2. The text of the AFP report as disseminated by the Radio station is given below:
China's Online Propagandists Revealed
A pair of leaked receipts from a university in northwestern China that apparently shows the pay given to government-backed Internet commentators, known as the "50 cent army," has been circulating among netizens this week.
Sealed with the official stamp of "The Party Committee Propaganda Department of the Northwestern Polytechnic University of the Chinese Communist Party," the receipts confirm that money was paid to "Internet commentators."
An employee who answered the phone at the Xian-based university confirmed that such a job exists on campus.
"You mean a propaganda specialist," he said, when asked if there was such a job as "Internet commentator" at the college.
But he said he didn't know much about the job, and supplied a second phone number for more information.
The employee who answered this number also confirmed the job exists.
"Of course we do," he said. "The job is to write news ... for example, they might use their knowledge of scholarly articles."
"With editorial input from the team, they can produce something of great value," he said.
However, he hung up when pressed for further details.
China is stepping up media training for its officials, as well as an army of freelance commentators paid to direct public debate online, known as the "50 cent army," according to official media reports in recent months.
A news report from local television station, Hubei Xishui TV, said local officials from the Xishui county propaganda department had held training exercises for official spokespersons and "Internet commentators."
Media training courses for commentators and government officials include tips on how to influence coverage by the country's biggest news organizations, as well as numerous methods of using the Internet and social media to spread the government's message.
Internet commentators are expected to report "the truth" as fast as possible, to supplement their information with explanations for events, and to influence Internet debate in the "correct" direction, reports have said.
Veteran bloggers and online activists say that a typical workday for a 50-center would involve watching forum posts, microblog posts, and chatrooms for topics linked to a specific keyword allocated by their managers.
How much they are paid depends on the number of comments, tweets, and posts they make that steer the debate in the government's preferred direction.
According to the receipts currently circulating, which had the personal details of the 50-centers obscured, two commentaries were paid for by the university, one at 20 yuan, and one at 30 yuan.
The world of the government-backed online commentators is shadowy, with ordinary netizens left to infer how they operate from their behavior online or from the occasional leaked document.
Earlier this year, the news website Canyu leaked a document titled "Internal Work Handbook" allegedly written for 50-centers.
In it, hired commentators are instructed to track down the source of any online "rumors," and then to order the website that first posted it to delete the offending item.
One Chinese student who declined to be named said he had once written articles for the government online, to earn a little extra money.
"I saw that my classmates were doing it as well, and I didn't think anything of it," he said. "I didn't know that we were the so-called '50 cent army.'"
"I didn't really understand what I was doing, and I was somewhat lacking in values," he said. "Now I deeply regret going out to bat for them with comments like that."
He said he was able to earn around 100-120 yuan a month writing the articles.
Chinese Internet expert Li Li said that while the 50 cent army appears to be growing in numbers, their effectiveness is limited.
"If you do a lot of bad things, you will lose credibility ... and eventually no one will believe anything you say," Li said.
"Then there will be a backlash; everyone will know who the 50 cent army are, and the government's credibility will be at its lowest possible level."
Blogger Wen Yunchao, known by his online nickname Beifeng, said most netizens adopted a policy of ignoring 50-centers.
"We pretend we don't hear or see them," he said. "We treat them as if they weren't there, and never give any kind of reaction."
"This makes them much less effective."
On December 9,2011, Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, disseminated a report attributed to the Agence France Presse (AFP) regarding how China has been trying to counter criticism of the State and the Communist Party of China and spread of undesirable “rumours” through the Internet by micro-bloggers and other netizens.
2. The text of the AFP report as disseminated by the Radio station is given below:
China's Online Propagandists Revealed
A pair of leaked receipts from a university in northwestern China that apparently shows the pay given to government-backed Internet commentators, known as the "50 cent army," has been circulating among netizens this week.
Sealed with the official stamp of "The Party Committee Propaganda Department of the Northwestern Polytechnic University of the Chinese Communist Party," the receipts confirm that money was paid to "Internet commentators."
An employee who answered the phone at the Xian-based university confirmed that such a job exists on campus.
"You mean a propaganda specialist," he said, when asked if there was such a job as "Internet commentator" at the college.
But he said he didn't know much about the job, and supplied a second phone number for more information.
The employee who answered this number also confirmed the job exists.
"Of course we do," he said. "The job is to write news ... for example, they might use their knowledge of scholarly articles."
"With editorial input from the team, they can produce something of great value," he said.
However, he hung up when pressed for further details.
China is stepping up media training for its officials, as well as an army of freelance commentators paid to direct public debate online, known as the "50 cent army," according to official media reports in recent months.
A news report from local television station, Hubei Xishui TV, said local officials from the Xishui county propaganda department had held training exercises for official spokespersons and "Internet commentators."
Media training courses for commentators and government officials include tips on how to influence coverage by the country's biggest news organizations, as well as numerous methods of using the Internet and social media to spread the government's message.
Internet commentators are expected to report "the truth" as fast as possible, to supplement their information with explanations for events, and to influence Internet debate in the "correct" direction, reports have said.
Veteran bloggers and online activists say that a typical workday for a 50-center would involve watching forum posts, microblog posts, and chatrooms for topics linked to a specific keyword allocated by their managers.
How much they are paid depends on the number of comments, tweets, and posts they make that steer the debate in the government's preferred direction.
According to the receipts currently circulating, which had the personal details of the 50-centers obscured, two commentaries were paid for by the university, one at 20 yuan, and one at 30 yuan.
The world of the government-backed online commentators is shadowy, with ordinary netizens left to infer how they operate from their behavior online or from the occasional leaked document.
Earlier this year, the news website Canyu leaked a document titled "Internal Work Handbook" allegedly written for 50-centers.
In it, hired commentators are instructed to track down the source of any online "rumors," and then to order the website that first posted it to delete the offending item.
One Chinese student who declined to be named said he had once written articles for the government online, to earn a little extra money.
"I saw that my classmates were doing it as well, and I didn't think anything of it," he said. "I didn't know that we were the so-called '50 cent army.'"
"I didn't really understand what I was doing, and I was somewhat lacking in values," he said. "Now I deeply regret going out to bat for them with comments like that."
He said he was able to earn around 100-120 yuan a month writing the articles.
Chinese Internet expert Li Li said that while the 50 cent army appears to be growing in numbers, their effectiveness is limited.
"If you do a lot of bad things, you will lose credibility ... and eventually no one will believe anything you say," Li said.
"Then there will be a backlash; everyone will know who the 50 cent army are, and the government's credibility will be at its lowest possible level."
Blogger Wen Yunchao, known by his online nickname Beifeng, said most netizens adopted a policy of ignoring 50-centers.
"We pretend we don't hear or see them," he said. "We treat them as if they weren't there, and never give any kind of reaction."
"This makes them much less effective."
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
BREAKTHROUGH IN TERROR INVESTIGATION: NEED FOR CAUTION
B.RAMAN
The recent claims by the Delhi Police of a breakthrough in the investigation of three terror strikes of last year in Pune (February 2010), Bengaluru (April,2010) and Delhi (September 2010)speak well of their diligence in pursuing the investigation despite the absence of any initial clues of a substantive nature.
2. The long time taken by them for collecting evidence and making the initial arrests of six Muslims---- five of Bihar and one from Pakistan--- would indicate painstaking efforts by the Delhi Police to ensure that they kept an open mind during the investigation and refrained from jumping to premature conclusions that might be proved wrong as had happened in the case of the Malegaon and Hyderabad blasts between 2006 and 2008.
3. It seems to be the assessment of the Delhi Police that the blasts in which they have claimed a break-through were carried out by the Indian Mujahideen (IM), which was responsible for a series of blasts in different cities, including Delhi, in 2007 and 2008.
4. While complimenting the Delhi Police for the breakthrough claimed by them, one has to sound a word of caution and cite some factors which don’t click. Firstly, the version of the Pune blast as now given out by the Delhi Police does not tally with that earlier given out by the Maharashtra Police. How does one reconcile the contradictions?
5.Secondly, the IM had generally used well-fabricated and well-timed improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in 2007 and 2008 except those in Bengaluru in 2008 which did not have the lethality expected of them due to defective fabrication. In the three cases for which a breakthrough has now been claimed, a kichdi (hotch-potch) of modus-operandi (MO) seems to have been used---a sophisticated IED in Pune, somewhat crude IEDs in Bengaluru and an IED plus a hand-held weapon in Delhi. This kichdi does not tally with past MO of the older vintage of the IM.
6. Thirdly, the older vintage of the IM always used to come out with authentic sounding claims of responsibility with detailed explanations of what provoked them to carry out the attacks. We haven’t had any such claims in respect of the strikes in which the Delhi Police have claimed a break-through. Ilyas Kashmiri, the Pakistani associated with Al Qaeda, did make a claim in respect of the Pune blast, but his claim remained unauthenticated.
7.It is quite possible that a new vintage of IM has been in action----with the same ideological inspiration and same grievances as the earlier one of 2007-08, but with a lack of uniformity in its skills and MO. It is important to go deeper into it and avoid hasty conclusions and make hasty claims. ( 8-12-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75)
The recent claims by the Delhi Police of a breakthrough in the investigation of three terror strikes of last year in Pune (February 2010), Bengaluru (April,2010) and Delhi (September 2010)speak well of their diligence in pursuing the investigation despite the absence of any initial clues of a substantive nature.
2. The long time taken by them for collecting evidence and making the initial arrests of six Muslims---- five of Bihar and one from Pakistan--- would indicate painstaking efforts by the Delhi Police to ensure that they kept an open mind during the investigation and refrained from jumping to premature conclusions that might be proved wrong as had happened in the case of the Malegaon and Hyderabad blasts between 2006 and 2008.
3. It seems to be the assessment of the Delhi Police that the blasts in which they have claimed a break-through were carried out by the Indian Mujahideen (IM), which was responsible for a series of blasts in different cities, including Delhi, in 2007 and 2008.
4. While complimenting the Delhi Police for the breakthrough claimed by them, one has to sound a word of caution and cite some factors which don’t click. Firstly, the version of the Pune blast as now given out by the Delhi Police does not tally with that earlier given out by the Maharashtra Police. How does one reconcile the contradictions?
5.Secondly, the IM had generally used well-fabricated and well-timed improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in 2007 and 2008 except those in Bengaluru in 2008 which did not have the lethality expected of them due to defective fabrication. In the three cases for which a breakthrough has now been claimed, a kichdi (hotch-potch) of modus-operandi (MO) seems to have been used---a sophisticated IED in Pune, somewhat crude IEDs in Bengaluru and an IED plus a hand-held weapon in Delhi. This kichdi does not tally with past MO of the older vintage of the IM.
6. Thirdly, the older vintage of the IM always used to come out with authentic sounding claims of responsibility with detailed explanations of what provoked them to carry out the attacks. We haven’t had any such claims in respect of the strikes in which the Delhi Police have claimed a break-through. Ilyas Kashmiri, the Pakistani associated with Al Qaeda, did make a claim in respect of the Pune blast, but his claim remained unauthenticated.
7.It is quite possible that a new vintage of IM has been in action----with the same ideological inspiration and same grievances as the earlier one of 2007-08, but with a lack of uniformity in its skills and MO. It is important to go deeper into it and avoid hasty conclusions and make hasty claims. ( 8-12-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75)
DEALING WITH NET OFFENDERS IN FOREIGN SANCTUARIES
B.RAMAN
In an article of August 7,2011, titled “A Venomous Glee Over the Internet” available at http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-a-venomous-glee-over-internet-sonia-barkha-raman/20110806.htm, I had drawn attention to some venomous propaganda being carried on in the Net against Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, Barkha Dutt and Sagarika Ghose, the well-known TV journos, in the wake of Sonia Gandhi’s departure to the US for medical treatment.
2.Even earlier, I had noticed a vicious campaign against Barkha Dutt by suspected Hindutva elements when she was in Libya. Some of them were noticed by me disseminating messages wishing that she will die in Libya. I remember warning some of these tweeters that if they did not stop this vicious campaign wishing for her death, I would be constrained to report the matter to the police. This campaign stopped thereafter.
3. It revived again after Mrs.Sonia Gandhi was taken to the US for medical treatment and Barkha defended Sonia Gandhi’s right to privacy. Whereas I did not go public over the vicious campaign against Barkha wishing her death while she was in Libya, I decided to go public with regard to the fresh campaign which was directed against Barkha as well as Sonia Gandhi and Sagarika Ghose. Hence, the above-mentioned article.
4. I had mentioned in that article that while those who indulged in such campaign seemed to be in small number their viciousness should not be ignored and suggested that instead of imposing any curbs on the misuse of the NET by these vicious elements, the Government should act against them under the existing laws.
5. I have always been strongly against any curbs on the use of the Internet by such elements not only because the curbs will be a violation of fundamental rights guaranteed to all citizens, but also because such curbs will be unenforceable. At the same time, I felt that some action should be taken against these elements under the existing punitive laws
6. In the US, wishing death in public for the President and other prominent personalities is immediately taken notice of by the Secret Service, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and other similar organizations and an enquiry initiated against the offenders.
7. We have been taking lightly the mischievous activities of persons expressing wishes through the Net for the deaths of prominent personalities. I felt that the time had come to act against such persons.
8. However, I was surprised by reports carried by our media during the last two days that Shri Kapil Sibal, the Union Minister for Communications and Information Technology, had embarked on an intimidatory campaign against the service providers of social networking sites to demand pre-censorship and ban on such objectionable posts and tweets without following the due process of law. I strongly deplored his action and even suggested that someone should initiate a public interest litigation against him.
9. My suggestion was that the solution lies in a vigorous prosecution of the offenders after they had disseminated the objectionable posts and tweets tending to incite violence instead of preventing through arbitrary executive action.
10. “The Hindu” of December 7 has carried an interview with Sibal in which he has explained that prosecution of the offenders has not been possible because many of the offenders operate from safe sanctuaries abroad and they cannot be prosecuted under Indian laws. The only way of stopping them from misusing the Net for inciting violence is through executive action with the co-operation of the service providers.
11. This is a genuine difficulty of which I was not aware even though I strongly suspected that many of the Hindutva storm-trooper elements misusing the net for their vicious campaign were based abroad, particularly in the US.
12.Other countries also face this problem of elements operating from foreign sanctuaries misusing the Net for such campaigns. I am told that since action for prosecution is not possible, they have developed a capability for erasing such offensive postings and tweets that tend to incite violence. We should also think and act along these lines. Under the existing laws, the Government has the power to seize printed material that seek to incite violence.By enacting appropriate laws, the Government could arm itself with legal powers to erase posts and tweets that tend to incite violence. ( 7-12-11 )
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
In an article of August 7,2011, titled “A Venomous Glee Over the Internet” available at http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-a-venomous-glee-over-internet-sonia-barkha-raman/20110806.htm, I had drawn attention to some venomous propaganda being carried on in the Net against Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, Barkha Dutt and Sagarika Ghose, the well-known TV journos, in the wake of Sonia Gandhi’s departure to the US for medical treatment.
2.Even earlier, I had noticed a vicious campaign against Barkha Dutt by suspected Hindutva elements when she was in Libya. Some of them were noticed by me disseminating messages wishing that she will die in Libya. I remember warning some of these tweeters that if they did not stop this vicious campaign wishing for her death, I would be constrained to report the matter to the police. This campaign stopped thereafter.
3. It revived again after Mrs.Sonia Gandhi was taken to the US for medical treatment and Barkha defended Sonia Gandhi’s right to privacy. Whereas I did not go public over the vicious campaign against Barkha wishing her death while she was in Libya, I decided to go public with regard to the fresh campaign which was directed against Barkha as well as Sonia Gandhi and Sagarika Ghose. Hence, the above-mentioned article.
4. I had mentioned in that article that while those who indulged in such campaign seemed to be in small number their viciousness should not be ignored and suggested that instead of imposing any curbs on the misuse of the NET by these vicious elements, the Government should act against them under the existing laws.
5. I have always been strongly against any curbs on the use of the Internet by such elements not only because the curbs will be a violation of fundamental rights guaranteed to all citizens, but also because such curbs will be unenforceable. At the same time, I felt that some action should be taken against these elements under the existing punitive laws
6. In the US, wishing death in public for the President and other prominent personalities is immediately taken notice of by the Secret Service, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and other similar organizations and an enquiry initiated against the offenders.
7. We have been taking lightly the mischievous activities of persons expressing wishes through the Net for the deaths of prominent personalities. I felt that the time had come to act against such persons.
8. However, I was surprised by reports carried by our media during the last two days that Shri Kapil Sibal, the Union Minister for Communications and Information Technology, had embarked on an intimidatory campaign against the service providers of social networking sites to demand pre-censorship and ban on such objectionable posts and tweets without following the due process of law. I strongly deplored his action and even suggested that someone should initiate a public interest litigation against him.
9. My suggestion was that the solution lies in a vigorous prosecution of the offenders after they had disseminated the objectionable posts and tweets tending to incite violence instead of preventing through arbitrary executive action.
10. “The Hindu” of December 7 has carried an interview with Sibal in which he has explained that prosecution of the offenders has not been possible because many of the offenders operate from safe sanctuaries abroad and they cannot be prosecuted under Indian laws. The only way of stopping them from misusing the Net for inciting violence is through executive action with the co-operation of the service providers.
11. This is a genuine difficulty of which I was not aware even though I strongly suspected that many of the Hindutva storm-trooper elements misusing the net for their vicious campaign were based abroad, particularly in the US.
12.Other countries also face this problem of elements operating from foreign sanctuaries misusing the Net for such campaigns. I am told that since action for prosecution is not possible, they have developed a capability for erasing such offensive postings and tweets that tend to incite violence. We should also think and act along these lines. Under the existing laws, the Government has the power to seize printed material that seek to incite violence.By enacting appropriate laws, the Government could arm itself with legal powers to erase posts and tweets that tend to incite violence. ( 7-12-11 )
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
SPECULATION REGARDING ZARDARI
B.RAMAN
The “Dawn News” of Karachi has reported as follows:
“President Asif Ali Zardari on Tuesday (December 6,2011) arrived in Dubai for a medical check-up. According to presidential spokesperson Farhatullah Babar, the President has traveled to Dubai along with his team of doctors for an extensive medical examination. He added that before his departure, President Zardari had separate meetings with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Chairman Senate Farooq H Naik, and Interior Minister Rehman Malik. The President was accompanied not only by his personal doctor Colonel Salman and his medical team, but also by some members of the Assembly, said Mr Babar.”
2. A subsequent report claims that Zardari has entered a Dubai hospital for a medical examination. Babar has been quoted as having denied that Zardari had undergone a medical examination in Pakistan before he was flown to Dubai.
3. Zardari frequently visits Dubai where he has considerable property and investments and where his daughters live. Rarely announcements are made about such private visits. This time, though, his spokesman has taken care to announce his departure for Dubai and to specify that it was for a medical check-up.
4. While no one has questioned that the visit could have been for genuine medical reasons, there has been some speculation as to whether Zardari’s medical condition requiring an urgent check-up might have been triggered by the considerable political pressure faced by him in relation to two current political controversies.
5. The first controversy relates to the so-called Memogate affair. It is about the claims made by Manzoor Ijaz, an American businessman of Pakistani origin, that his services as an intermediary were used by Hussain Haqqani, the then Pakistani Ambassador to the US, in May to pass on a memo to Admiral Mike Mullen, the then Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, allegedly seeking the good offices of Mullen for exercising pressure on Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff, not to stage a coup against Zardari in the wake of the US commando raid in Abbottabad on the night of May 2 to kill Osama bin Laden.
6. Neither Ijaz’s version of the Memogate affair nor Hussain Haqqani’s denial of Ijaz’s claims has carried conviction so far. The matter is under enquiry by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif has sought a judicial enquiry into the claims of Ijaz by the Supreme court. If the Supreme Court agrees to it and initiates an enquiry, it could have the effect of suspending the ISI enquiry into the matter.
7. Zardari himself, who will be as uncomfortable with the prospects of an enquiry by the Supreme Court as with the ISI enquiry, had indicated that he would be addressing a joint session of the two Houses of the Parliament on the controversy after the Muharrum observance was over on December 6. It is not clear whether he would still go ahead with his proposed address or whether would use his medical condition as an excuse for postponing it indefinitely.
8. The resignation of Hussain Haqqani and his replacement by Ms.Sherry Rehman, who enjoys the confidence of Zardari and is not distrusted by Kayani, as the Pakistani Ambassador to Washington DC has not ended the controversy. The Army as well as the PML of Nawaz Sharif are insisting for a thorough enquiry----each for its own reason. The PML wants to exploit it politically for further weakening Zardari and the Army wants to ensure that Zardari, whom it suspects of being soft to the US, will no longer indulge in such alleged conspiracies against the Army with the complicity of anti-Army and anti-ISI elements in US policy-making circles.
9.The second controversy relates to the recent death of 24 Pakistani military personnel in US air strikes on Pakistani military posts in the Mohmand agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The air strikes have caused considerable anger in the barracks which has been sought to be exploited by the Hizbut Tehrir, which has some following at the lower and middle levels of the Army, for creating disaffection not only against the US, but also against the senior leadership of the Pakistan Army.
10. Considerations of pride and reports of anti-US anger in the public and the subordinate ranks of the Army have made the Army and its senior officers take a seemingly inflexible anti-US stand . There has been suspicion that Zardari does not share the depth of the anti-US sentiments and might be prepared to let bygones be bygones and to let the matter rest after the condolences personally conveyed by President Barack Obama.
11. As a result of these developments, the political situation has become increasingly uncomfortable for Zardari giving rise to speculation that the Army might not be satisfied with the head of Hussain Haqqani and might want in addition that of Zardari whose credibility is low in the eyes of the Army. Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani still enjoys the confidence of Gen.Kayani, but he has very little following in the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in which support for Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto, who is head of the party, remains strong.
12. The situation has reached a stage where a full-fledged coup might not be validated post facto by the judiciary and the strong backing still enjoyed by Zardari in the PPP would make his being eased out a difficult option. It is generally believed that Zardari’s visit to Dubai at this stage ostensibly for medical reasons might have the additional purpose of seeking the continued support of the ruling families of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to enable him overcome the difficult political situation back home.
13. It is interesting to note that Zardari has left behind in Pakistan Bilawal Bhutto and Rehman Malik, his trusted Interior Minister--- apparently to keep a watch on the goings-on in the PPP and to ensure that no attempt is made to further undermine his position
14. Will Zardari manage to salvage his position and continue in power or will he quit on medical grounds after having inducted his son as the President? This is a million dollar question to which no answers are available. Bilawal is only 23 years old. Inducting him is going to be difficult. If Zardari decides to quit under the increasing pressure caused by the two controversies, the support presently enjoyed by Zardari and Bilawal in PPP---particularly in Punjab---might evaporate, thereby strengthening the position of Gilani.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75
The “Dawn News” of Karachi has reported as follows:
“President Asif Ali Zardari on Tuesday (December 6,2011) arrived in Dubai for a medical check-up. According to presidential spokesperson Farhatullah Babar, the President has traveled to Dubai along with his team of doctors for an extensive medical examination. He added that before his departure, President Zardari had separate meetings with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Chairman Senate Farooq H Naik, and Interior Minister Rehman Malik. The President was accompanied not only by his personal doctor Colonel Salman and his medical team, but also by some members of the Assembly, said Mr Babar.”
2. A subsequent report claims that Zardari has entered a Dubai hospital for a medical examination. Babar has been quoted as having denied that Zardari had undergone a medical examination in Pakistan before he was flown to Dubai.
3. Zardari frequently visits Dubai where he has considerable property and investments and where his daughters live. Rarely announcements are made about such private visits. This time, though, his spokesman has taken care to announce his departure for Dubai and to specify that it was for a medical check-up.
4. While no one has questioned that the visit could have been for genuine medical reasons, there has been some speculation as to whether Zardari’s medical condition requiring an urgent check-up might have been triggered by the considerable political pressure faced by him in relation to two current political controversies.
5. The first controversy relates to the so-called Memogate affair. It is about the claims made by Manzoor Ijaz, an American businessman of Pakistani origin, that his services as an intermediary were used by Hussain Haqqani, the then Pakistani Ambassador to the US, in May to pass on a memo to Admiral Mike Mullen, the then Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, allegedly seeking the good offices of Mullen for exercising pressure on Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff, not to stage a coup against Zardari in the wake of the US commando raid in Abbottabad on the night of May 2 to kill Osama bin Laden.
6. Neither Ijaz’s version of the Memogate affair nor Hussain Haqqani’s denial of Ijaz’s claims has carried conviction so far. The matter is under enquiry by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif has sought a judicial enquiry into the claims of Ijaz by the Supreme court. If the Supreme Court agrees to it and initiates an enquiry, it could have the effect of suspending the ISI enquiry into the matter.
7. Zardari himself, who will be as uncomfortable with the prospects of an enquiry by the Supreme Court as with the ISI enquiry, had indicated that he would be addressing a joint session of the two Houses of the Parliament on the controversy after the Muharrum observance was over on December 6. It is not clear whether he would still go ahead with his proposed address or whether would use his medical condition as an excuse for postponing it indefinitely.
8. The resignation of Hussain Haqqani and his replacement by Ms.Sherry Rehman, who enjoys the confidence of Zardari and is not distrusted by Kayani, as the Pakistani Ambassador to Washington DC has not ended the controversy. The Army as well as the PML of Nawaz Sharif are insisting for a thorough enquiry----each for its own reason. The PML wants to exploit it politically for further weakening Zardari and the Army wants to ensure that Zardari, whom it suspects of being soft to the US, will no longer indulge in such alleged conspiracies against the Army with the complicity of anti-Army and anti-ISI elements in US policy-making circles.
9.The second controversy relates to the recent death of 24 Pakistani military personnel in US air strikes on Pakistani military posts in the Mohmand agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The air strikes have caused considerable anger in the barracks which has been sought to be exploited by the Hizbut Tehrir, which has some following at the lower and middle levels of the Army, for creating disaffection not only against the US, but also against the senior leadership of the Pakistan Army.
10. Considerations of pride and reports of anti-US anger in the public and the subordinate ranks of the Army have made the Army and its senior officers take a seemingly inflexible anti-US stand . There has been suspicion that Zardari does not share the depth of the anti-US sentiments and might be prepared to let bygones be bygones and to let the matter rest after the condolences personally conveyed by President Barack Obama.
11. As a result of these developments, the political situation has become increasingly uncomfortable for Zardari giving rise to speculation that the Army might not be satisfied with the head of Hussain Haqqani and might want in addition that of Zardari whose credibility is low in the eyes of the Army. Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani still enjoys the confidence of Gen.Kayani, but he has very little following in the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in which support for Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto, who is head of the party, remains strong.
12. The situation has reached a stage where a full-fledged coup might not be validated post facto by the judiciary and the strong backing still enjoyed by Zardari in the PPP would make his being eased out a difficult option. It is generally believed that Zardari’s visit to Dubai at this stage ostensibly for medical reasons might have the additional purpose of seeking the continued support of the ruling families of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to enable him overcome the difficult political situation back home.
13. It is interesting to note that Zardari has left behind in Pakistan Bilawal Bhutto and Rehman Malik, his trusted Interior Minister--- apparently to keep a watch on the goings-on in the PPP and to ensure that no attempt is made to further undermine his position
14. Will Zardari manage to salvage his position and continue in power or will he quit on medical grounds after having inducted his son as the President? This is a million dollar question to which no answers are available. Bilawal is only 23 years old. Inducting him is going to be difficult. If Zardari decides to quit under the increasing pressure caused by the two controversies, the support presently enjoyed by Zardari and Bilawal in PPP---particularly in Punjab---might evaporate, thereby strengthening the position of Gilani.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75
Monday, December 5, 2011
OPENING-UP OF MYANMAR
B.RAMAN
The three-day (Nov.30—Dec 2,2011) visit of Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, to Myanmar--- the first by a US Secretary of State since the visit of Johan Foster Dulles in 1955--- indicated the growing self-confidence of President Thein Sein that the cautious policy of domestic reforms and external opening-up initiated by him had the support of the serving military officers.
2.This self-confidence came out clearly in the assurances reportedly conveyed by his Government to Mrs.Clinton that the reforms and opening-up are real and will be irreversible. The only threat to the new policy could have come from the serving military officers. The slow pace of the promised release of the political prisoners ---200 plus released and about 1600 still in detention--- had given rise to speculation regarding possible resistance from serving military officers to the proposed release of all the political prisoners. This speculation still persists since there have been no more releases for some weeks now.
3. However, the Government has been going ahead with its policy of political reconciliation with the pro-democracy forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) has already decided to register itself as a political party to enable it to contest the bye-elections due in the coming months Suu Kyi is widely expected to contest one of them.
4. The policy of gradual opening-up initiated by the Government has three components--- release of all political prisoners and relaxation of oppressive laws relating to media freedom and the right to hold public meetings and take out processions, facilitating the de jure induction of Suu Kyi and her NLD into the political process and mending relations with the West to pave the way for the removal of the economic sanctions imposed by them and the resumption of the flow of economic assistance from the West and international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
5.The visit of Mrs.Clinton so soon after the East Asia summit at Bali in Indonesia last month at which Myanmar and Cambodia were reportedly the only countries to have supported the Chinese stand on the South China Sea issue clearly indicated the keenness of the Myanmar Government to give a new orientation to its foreign policy despite its anxiety not to tread on the toes of China while so doing.
6. China will continue to be an important factor in Myanmar for some years to come because of the economic dependence on Beijing and the close links between the armies of the two countries. A peeved China can play a spoiler by instigating the pro-China military officers trained by the People’s Liberation Artmy (PLA) to resist any aspect of the new policy that may not be palatable to China.
7. Till the Western countries remove the economic sanctions and aid from the West and the international institutions starts flowing in again thereby enabling the Government to dilute its dependence on China, the Government cannot afford to ignore the likely concerns of China.
8. Beijing’s concerns relate not so much to the domestic political reforms as to the decisions of a strategic nature that may be taken by the Government under prodding from the US that could dilute the strategic primacy enjoyed by China in Myanmar. Vietnam and Myanmar are two countries of major concern to China from the point of view of its national security and Beijing will be closely monitoring the developments relating to the relations of the two countries with the US and India.
9. China has already made no secret of its concerns over the decision of the Myanmar Government to suspend the construction of a big hydel power project by a Chinese company in the Kachin State to supply electricity to Yunnan. The Thein Sein Government has taken care to reassure Beijing that there will be no more reversals of past economic decisions of which China was the main beneficiary and that the closer relations with the US will not be at the expense of the primacy enjoyed by China in the Government’s strategic calculation. How to gradually reduce the dependence on China without seeming to do so is a question which would be constantly engaging the attention of the Thein Sein Government. Unless and until substantial economic assistance starts flowing in quickly, the Government will not be in a position to even contemplate any major change in its policies towards China.
10. The lifting of economic sanctions and the flow of substantial economic assistance are not for tomorrow. This became clear during the visit of Mrs.Clinton. Two concrete indicators of forward movement were the decision to re-establish full-fledged diplomatic relations at the Ambassadorial level and a token grant of US $
1.2 million for health care and micro-credit projects.
11. Mrs.Clinton reportedly made the lifting of economic sanctions and the flow of economic assistance conditional on four steps being taken by the Thein Sein Government---the release of the remaining political prisoners, improvement in human rights, a peace process with the ethnic minorities and breaking-off of Myanmar’s relations with North Korea with a full accounting of the alleged assistance from North Korea in the nuclear field.
12. While the first three conditions should not cause any major problem to the Thein Sein Government, the last one relating to North Korea could. Would it cause concern in Beijing? What would be the reaction of the serving military officers to this condition? Would the US insist on the immediate implementation of this condition or would it be prepared to go slow on this keeping in view the sensitivity of this condition? These are questions to which clear-cut answers are not available.
13. On the whole, the US has reasons to be gratified with the visit which went off without any friction and with signs of considerable mutual goodwill. Initially, Mrs.Clinton visited Naypyidaw, the State capital, for meetings with President Thein Sein and the Speaker of the Pyithu Hluttaw (Burma’s lower legislative house) Thura Shwe Mann. She then went to Yangon for two meetings with Suu Kyi.
14. While not many details were forthcoming of Mrs.Clinton’s 45-minutes talks with President Thein Sein, more details were available of her meeting with the Speaker, who seems to be playing an important role in the opening-up process. He was quoted by one of his colleagues as having told Mrs.Clinton that there would be no military coup or military government in the future and that there would be no reversal of the policy of democratic reforms.
15. Suu Kyi said after her meeting with Mrs.Clinton:"We are happy with the way in which the United States is engaging with us. It is through engagement that we hope to promote the process of democratization. Because of this engagement, I think our way ahead will be clearer and we will be able to trust that the process of democratization will go forward. We are prepared to go further if reforms maintain momentum. But history teaches us to be cautious. We know that there have been serious setbacks and grave disappointments over the past decades." (6-12-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
The three-day (Nov.30—Dec 2,2011) visit of Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, to Myanmar--- the first by a US Secretary of State since the visit of Johan Foster Dulles in 1955--- indicated the growing self-confidence of President Thein Sein that the cautious policy of domestic reforms and external opening-up initiated by him had the support of the serving military officers.
2.This self-confidence came out clearly in the assurances reportedly conveyed by his Government to Mrs.Clinton that the reforms and opening-up are real and will be irreversible. The only threat to the new policy could have come from the serving military officers. The slow pace of the promised release of the political prisoners ---200 plus released and about 1600 still in detention--- had given rise to speculation regarding possible resistance from serving military officers to the proposed release of all the political prisoners. This speculation still persists since there have been no more releases for some weeks now.
3. However, the Government has been going ahead with its policy of political reconciliation with the pro-democracy forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) has already decided to register itself as a political party to enable it to contest the bye-elections due in the coming months Suu Kyi is widely expected to contest one of them.
4. The policy of gradual opening-up initiated by the Government has three components--- release of all political prisoners and relaxation of oppressive laws relating to media freedom and the right to hold public meetings and take out processions, facilitating the de jure induction of Suu Kyi and her NLD into the political process and mending relations with the West to pave the way for the removal of the economic sanctions imposed by them and the resumption of the flow of economic assistance from the West and international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
5.The visit of Mrs.Clinton so soon after the East Asia summit at Bali in Indonesia last month at which Myanmar and Cambodia were reportedly the only countries to have supported the Chinese stand on the South China Sea issue clearly indicated the keenness of the Myanmar Government to give a new orientation to its foreign policy despite its anxiety not to tread on the toes of China while so doing.
6. China will continue to be an important factor in Myanmar for some years to come because of the economic dependence on Beijing and the close links between the armies of the two countries. A peeved China can play a spoiler by instigating the pro-China military officers trained by the People’s Liberation Artmy (PLA) to resist any aspect of the new policy that may not be palatable to China.
7. Till the Western countries remove the economic sanctions and aid from the West and the international institutions starts flowing in again thereby enabling the Government to dilute its dependence on China, the Government cannot afford to ignore the likely concerns of China.
8. Beijing’s concerns relate not so much to the domestic political reforms as to the decisions of a strategic nature that may be taken by the Government under prodding from the US that could dilute the strategic primacy enjoyed by China in Myanmar. Vietnam and Myanmar are two countries of major concern to China from the point of view of its national security and Beijing will be closely monitoring the developments relating to the relations of the two countries with the US and India.
9. China has already made no secret of its concerns over the decision of the Myanmar Government to suspend the construction of a big hydel power project by a Chinese company in the Kachin State to supply electricity to Yunnan. The Thein Sein Government has taken care to reassure Beijing that there will be no more reversals of past economic decisions of which China was the main beneficiary and that the closer relations with the US will not be at the expense of the primacy enjoyed by China in the Government’s strategic calculation. How to gradually reduce the dependence on China without seeming to do so is a question which would be constantly engaging the attention of the Thein Sein Government. Unless and until substantial economic assistance starts flowing in quickly, the Government will not be in a position to even contemplate any major change in its policies towards China.
10. The lifting of economic sanctions and the flow of substantial economic assistance are not for tomorrow. This became clear during the visit of Mrs.Clinton. Two concrete indicators of forward movement were the decision to re-establish full-fledged diplomatic relations at the Ambassadorial level and a token grant of US $
1.2 million for health care and micro-credit projects.
11. Mrs.Clinton reportedly made the lifting of economic sanctions and the flow of economic assistance conditional on four steps being taken by the Thein Sein Government---the release of the remaining political prisoners, improvement in human rights, a peace process with the ethnic minorities and breaking-off of Myanmar’s relations with North Korea with a full accounting of the alleged assistance from North Korea in the nuclear field.
12. While the first three conditions should not cause any major problem to the Thein Sein Government, the last one relating to North Korea could. Would it cause concern in Beijing? What would be the reaction of the serving military officers to this condition? Would the US insist on the immediate implementation of this condition or would it be prepared to go slow on this keeping in view the sensitivity of this condition? These are questions to which clear-cut answers are not available.
13. On the whole, the US has reasons to be gratified with the visit which went off without any friction and with signs of considerable mutual goodwill. Initially, Mrs.Clinton visited Naypyidaw, the State capital, for meetings with President Thein Sein and the Speaker of the Pyithu Hluttaw (Burma’s lower legislative house) Thura Shwe Mann. She then went to Yangon for two meetings with Suu Kyi.
14. While not many details were forthcoming of Mrs.Clinton’s 45-minutes talks with President Thein Sein, more details were available of her meeting with the Speaker, who seems to be playing an important role in the opening-up process. He was quoted by one of his colleagues as having told Mrs.Clinton that there would be no military coup or military government in the future and that there would be no reversal of the policy of democratic reforms.
15. Suu Kyi said after her meeting with Mrs.Clinton:"We are happy with the way in which the United States is engaging with us. It is through engagement that we hope to promote the process of democratization. Because of this engagement, I think our way ahead will be clearer and we will be able to trust that the process of democratization will go forward. We are prepared to go further if reforms maintain momentum. But history teaches us to be cautious. We know that there have been serious setbacks and grave disappointments over the past decades." (6-12-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
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