B.RAMAN
Right-thinking Hindus would feel puzzled and concerned over media reports regarding the many references to the Hindutva movement allegedly contained in the writings of Anders Behring Breivik, the 32-year-old Norwegian who carried out an immense carnage in Norway on July 22,2011, resulting in the massacre of nearly 80 Norwegians, many of them young.
2. He had not come to the adverse notice of either the Police or the society before he carried out his carnage. Official investigation and private research after the carnage have brought out that seeds and thoughts of irrationality have been present in him for some time without being noticed by anyone. He had given web expression to his thoughts over a period of time.
3. Irrational thoughts are partly spontaneously born and partly externally stimulated. External stimulation often provides evil addition to such thoughts. Breivik’s thoughts were no exception to this law of nature. He appears to have developed an irrational mind despite his having had the benefit of a good education. This irrationality in him seems to have been aggravated and not diluted by his exposure to religious and cultural influences of other countries through the Internet.
4. One of the many external stimulators to his thinking process seems to have been his exposure to Hindutva thinking and arguments regarding the allegedly negative face of Islam. There were two intense angers gnawing inside him----an anti-Islam one and an anti-liberal one for not seeing through the dangers ---in his perception---posed by Islam.
5. His attempts to convince himself of the dangers allegedly posed by Islam seem to have led him into the web world of Hindutva organisations and ideologues. Their arguments over issues such as the alleged sufferings of Hindus at the hands of Muslims, the dangers of illegal Muslim migration etc appealed to his mind which was already convinced that Islam was evil and he started looking upon the Hindutva ideologues as objective analysts of the evils of Islam.
6. It would be incorrect to jump to the conclusion that his flirting with Hindutva thinking exacerbated his anti-Muslim anger. But it seems to have at least partly convinced him of the rightness of his own analysis. He found justification and rationalisation for his irrational analyses in the thoughts expressed in some of the Hindutva web sites that he frequented.
7. In India, we have had instances of mob irrationality at Ayodhya in 1992 and in Gujarat in 2002, but, fortunately, no instances of irrationality of isolated individuals that led to the kind of carnage witnessed in Norway. With determination, it should be possible to prevent and deal effectively with mob irrationality. We failed to do so at Ayodhya and in Gujarat because the determination to deal effectively was lacking.
8. Even determined Government response may not be able to deal effectively with unexpected outbursts of individual irrationality in moments of real or imaginary anger. This underlines the importance of not propagating and projecting ideology in lingo and terms that could wittingly or unwittingly induce irrationality in individual elements of society by feeding anger instead of diluting it.
9.Instead of rejecting with indignation insinuations of a possible impact of Hindutva thoughts on the mind of the Norwegian, Hindutva ideologues should ponder over their present methods of propagation of their thoughts and arguments and see how ideological arguments can be couched and propagated in a manner that would add to sanity in discourse and not irrationality. ( 27-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Monday, July 25, 2011
KARACHI BLEEDS MORE & MORE FROM PAKISTAN'S THOUSAND CUTS
B.RAMAN
Karachi continues to bleed more and more as a consequence of Pakistan’s self-inflicted thousand cuts.
2. At least 27 people have been killed in fresh clashes and targeted attacks since July 23,2011, taking the number of total fatalities this month to 200.Whereas previously, Mohajirs and Pashtuns were killing each other, now Mohajirs have been killing Mohajirs----Mohajir migrants from India’s Uttar Pradesh and those from Bihar killing each other.
3.The Mohajirs from Bihar have generally collaborated with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). They did so in the pre-1971 East Pakistan and let themselves be used by the ISI and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) for the massacre of the Bengali nationalists, setting in motion the train of events that led to the birth of Bangladesh.
4.When Karachi burst into anti-Government and anti-Sindhi violence in the late 1980s due to the activities of the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (since renamed the Muttahida Qaumi Movement), the ISI sought to drive a wedge between the migrants from Uttat Pradesh, who dominated the leadership and cadre strength of the MQM, and those from Bihar who had grievances against the leadership style of Altaf Hussain, the head of the MQM, whose family had migrated to Pakistan from UP.
5.The ISI encouraged the migrants from Bihar to form their own organisation under the leadership of one Afaq Ahmed called MQM (Haqiqui), the real MQM. The ISI trained and armed the MQM (Haqiqui) to counter the MQM of Altaf.
6. When Gen. Pervez Musharraf, a Mohajir from Delhi, came to power he made peace with Altaf’s MQM by stopping the ISI’s support to MQM (Haqiqui).
7. Recent reports indicate that concerned with growing violence in Karachi, the ISI has reverted to its old policy of using migrants from Bihar to counter Altaf’s MQM. The leaders and cadres of MQM (Haqiqui) arrested and jailed when Musharraf was in power, are being released and encouraged to counter the activities of Altaf’s organisation.
8. This has led to a recrudescence of violent clashes between the migrants from Uttar Pradesh and those from Bihar---thereby further complicating an already complicated situation in Karachi.
9. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of July 9,2011, titled KARACHI, BEIRUT OF SOUTH ASIA at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers46/paper4594.html
(26-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Karachi continues to bleed more and more as a consequence of Pakistan’s self-inflicted thousand cuts.
2. At least 27 people have been killed in fresh clashes and targeted attacks since July 23,2011, taking the number of total fatalities this month to 200.Whereas previously, Mohajirs and Pashtuns were killing each other, now Mohajirs have been killing Mohajirs----Mohajir migrants from India’s Uttar Pradesh and those from Bihar killing each other.
3.The Mohajirs from Bihar have generally collaborated with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). They did so in the pre-1971 East Pakistan and let themselves be used by the ISI and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) for the massacre of the Bengali nationalists, setting in motion the train of events that led to the birth of Bangladesh.
4.When Karachi burst into anti-Government and anti-Sindhi violence in the late 1980s due to the activities of the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (since renamed the Muttahida Qaumi Movement), the ISI sought to drive a wedge between the migrants from Uttat Pradesh, who dominated the leadership and cadre strength of the MQM, and those from Bihar who had grievances against the leadership style of Altaf Hussain, the head of the MQM, whose family had migrated to Pakistan from UP.
5.The ISI encouraged the migrants from Bihar to form their own organisation under the leadership of one Afaq Ahmed called MQM (Haqiqui), the real MQM. The ISI trained and armed the MQM (Haqiqui) to counter the MQM of Altaf.
6. When Gen. Pervez Musharraf, a Mohajir from Delhi, came to power he made peace with Altaf’s MQM by stopping the ISI’s support to MQM (Haqiqui).
7. Recent reports indicate that concerned with growing violence in Karachi, the ISI has reverted to its old policy of using migrants from Bihar to counter Altaf’s MQM. The leaders and cadres of MQM (Haqiqui) arrested and jailed when Musharraf was in power, are being released and encouraged to counter the activities of Altaf’s organisation.
8. This has led to a recrudescence of violent clashes between the migrants from Uttar Pradesh and those from Bihar---thereby further complicating an already complicated situation in Karachi.
9. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of July 9,2011, titled KARACHI, BEIRUT OF SOUTH ASIA at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers46/paper4594.html
(26-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Sunday, July 24, 2011
CARNAGE IN NORWAY : Q & A
B.RAMAN
Q.Terrorism analysts have come in for criticism in connection with the carnage in Norway on July 22,2011.Any comments?
A.Initial reports were of a car bomb explosion outside the office of the Norwegian Prime Minister in Oslo. Norway has had no major terrorist strikes in the past, but has had at least two terrorism alerts---in 2003 when Ayman Al-Zawahiri of Al Qaeda had included Norway in the list of countries targeted by Al Qaeda in the wake of the US-led occupation of Iraq and in 2010 when three jihadi suspects ---an Uighur, an Uzbeck and a Kurd---- were arrested as part of an on-going investigation extending across a number of Western countries, including Norway. In the absence of any other indicator, the minds of most analysts recalled these two alerts.
Most analysts, including this writer, in their initial analysis recalled these two events of 2003 and 2010. In the meanwhile, reports started coming in of the attack by a gunman on a youth camp of the ruling Labour Party on an island called Utoeya. The analysts fell into two groups in reacting to these reports. Some, including this writer, refrained from connecting the two incidents and waited for further details of the attack on the youth camp. Some connected the two and put out stories of a major attack by Al Qaeda in Norway.
When the gunman was ultimately arrested by the police and interrogated, it turned out that he had carried out the explosion in Oslo as well as the attack on the Labour Party youth camp in which nearly 85 participants were reported to have been massacred and that jihadi terrorist organisations were not involved in any of these incidents.
Q.What details are so far known of the perpetrator of the two attacks?
A.His name is Anders Behring Breivik, 32. He has reportedly admitted to carrying out both the attacks, which he described as "gruesome but necessary". Breivik's lawyer Geir Lippestad told Norwegian media: "He thought it was gruesome having to commit these acts, but in his head they were necessary. He wished to attack society and the structure of society," Mr Lippestad said. He added that the actions had been planned for some time.
The BBC has reported the following details of the suspect: Describes himself as a Christian and conservative on a Facebook page attributed to him. Grew up in Oslo and attended the Oslo School of Management. Set up a farm through which he was able to buy fertiliser, which may have been used to make a bomb. He is reported to have had links with right-wing extremists. Still pictures of him, wearing a wetsuit and carrying an automatic weapon, appeared in a 12-minute anti-Muslim video called Knights Templar 2083, which appeared briefly on YouTube. A 1,500-page document written in English and said to be by Breivik - posted under the pseudonym of Andrew Berwick - was also put online hours before the attacks, suggesting they had been years in the planning. The document and the video repeatedly refer to multiculturalism and Muslim immigration; the author claims to be a follower of the Knights Templar - a medieval Christian organisation involved in the Crusades, and sometimes revered by white supremacists. Police have not speculated on motives for the attack but the bomb in Oslo targeted buildings connected to Norway's governing Labour Party, and the youth camp on Utoeya island was also run by the party. In the document posted online, references were made to targeting "cultural Marxists/ multiculturalist traitors".
From the available details, it would appear that in his mind, the suspect looked upon himself as a Crusader carrying on a Crusade not only against Muslims, but also against those failing to act against Muslims. His primary anger seems to have been against the Muslims and his secondary anger against the Norwegian Labour Party for failing to act against the Muslims. It is this secondary anger which has led to the carnage.
Q.Was he acting alone or did he have accomplices?
A. The police believe that he was acting alone, but have been checking whether he had accomplices since some of the inmates of the camp had expressed the suspicion that he probably had an accomplice.
Q. On what basis the police have concluded that he was responsible for both the incidents?
A. The suspect has confessed to both the incidents. It is not yet clear whether the police have found any other corroborative evidence other than the fact that he had bought a large quantity of fertiliser for his farm.
Q. It has been reported that there was a delay of about 90 minutes in the police intervening in the island to arrest and disarm the suspect. What was this delay due to?
A. Initial reports had said that the police were preoccupied with preventing any more explosions in Oslo and did not give priority to intervention in the island. Subsequent reports disseminated by the BBC have indicated as follows: Local police said a boat they wanted to use to get to the island was too small and leaky to carry personnel and equipment, and they decided to wait for a special unit from Oslo. And asked why a helicopter was not used, police chief Sveinung Sponheim said this would have taken longer as the nearest police helicopter was at a base in the south.
Q.Would this be categorised as terrorism?
A. So far, there is no evidence to show that he carried out the carnage at the instance of any organisation in fulfilment of its political or ideological or religious objective. It looks like the acts of an angry individual mind, which was partly irrational and partly rational. The irrationality is seen in the gruesome nature of the acts committed and in the absence of any post-facto feelings of remorse. The rationality is seen in the methodical manner in which the irrational acts were planned and carried out.
Q.Will it be possible to anticipate and prevent such irrational acts of individuals?
A.Very difficult unless someone notices the initial signs of preparation for the gruesome acts and alerts the police. The Norwegian Police cannot be blamed for not preventing the gruesome acts, but they could have reduced the gruesome nature of his acts if they had provided physical security to the camp or had the means of quick intervention. It is difficult to say in the absence of details whether the police could have prevented the explosion in Oslo. Norway has had no tradition or culture of high-grade physical security since it is a fairly balanced society with no previous history of large fatality terrorism or carnage. It was not a self-complacent society. But, it was a society which thought it was at peace with itself and hence did not have to dread such incidents. These assumptions and perceptions will change now. ( 25-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Q.Terrorism analysts have come in for criticism in connection with the carnage in Norway on July 22,2011.Any comments?
A.Initial reports were of a car bomb explosion outside the office of the Norwegian Prime Minister in Oslo. Norway has had no major terrorist strikes in the past, but has had at least two terrorism alerts---in 2003 when Ayman Al-Zawahiri of Al Qaeda had included Norway in the list of countries targeted by Al Qaeda in the wake of the US-led occupation of Iraq and in 2010 when three jihadi suspects ---an Uighur, an Uzbeck and a Kurd---- were arrested as part of an on-going investigation extending across a number of Western countries, including Norway. In the absence of any other indicator, the minds of most analysts recalled these two alerts.
Most analysts, including this writer, in their initial analysis recalled these two events of 2003 and 2010. In the meanwhile, reports started coming in of the attack by a gunman on a youth camp of the ruling Labour Party on an island called Utoeya. The analysts fell into two groups in reacting to these reports. Some, including this writer, refrained from connecting the two incidents and waited for further details of the attack on the youth camp. Some connected the two and put out stories of a major attack by Al Qaeda in Norway.
When the gunman was ultimately arrested by the police and interrogated, it turned out that he had carried out the explosion in Oslo as well as the attack on the Labour Party youth camp in which nearly 85 participants were reported to have been massacred and that jihadi terrorist organisations were not involved in any of these incidents.
Q.What details are so far known of the perpetrator of the two attacks?
A.His name is Anders Behring Breivik, 32. He has reportedly admitted to carrying out both the attacks, which he described as "gruesome but necessary". Breivik's lawyer Geir Lippestad told Norwegian media: "He thought it was gruesome having to commit these acts, but in his head they were necessary. He wished to attack society and the structure of society," Mr Lippestad said. He added that the actions had been planned for some time.
The BBC has reported the following details of the suspect: Describes himself as a Christian and conservative on a Facebook page attributed to him. Grew up in Oslo and attended the Oslo School of Management. Set up a farm through which he was able to buy fertiliser, which may have been used to make a bomb. He is reported to have had links with right-wing extremists. Still pictures of him, wearing a wetsuit and carrying an automatic weapon, appeared in a 12-minute anti-Muslim video called Knights Templar 2083, which appeared briefly on YouTube. A 1,500-page document written in English and said to be by Breivik - posted under the pseudonym of Andrew Berwick - was also put online hours before the attacks, suggesting they had been years in the planning. The document and the video repeatedly refer to multiculturalism and Muslim immigration; the author claims to be a follower of the Knights Templar - a medieval Christian organisation involved in the Crusades, and sometimes revered by white supremacists. Police have not speculated on motives for the attack but the bomb in Oslo targeted buildings connected to Norway's governing Labour Party, and the youth camp on Utoeya island was also run by the party. In the document posted online, references were made to targeting "cultural Marxists/ multiculturalist traitors".
From the available details, it would appear that in his mind, the suspect looked upon himself as a Crusader carrying on a Crusade not only against Muslims, but also against those failing to act against Muslims. His primary anger seems to have been against the Muslims and his secondary anger against the Norwegian Labour Party for failing to act against the Muslims. It is this secondary anger which has led to the carnage.
Q.Was he acting alone or did he have accomplices?
A. The police believe that he was acting alone, but have been checking whether he had accomplices since some of the inmates of the camp had expressed the suspicion that he probably had an accomplice.
Q. On what basis the police have concluded that he was responsible for both the incidents?
A. The suspect has confessed to both the incidents. It is not yet clear whether the police have found any other corroborative evidence other than the fact that he had bought a large quantity of fertiliser for his farm.
Q. It has been reported that there was a delay of about 90 minutes in the police intervening in the island to arrest and disarm the suspect. What was this delay due to?
A. Initial reports had said that the police were preoccupied with preventing any more explosions in Oslo and did not give priority to intervention in the island. Subsequent reports disseminated by the BBC have indicated as follows: Local police said a boat they wanted to use to get to the island was too small and leaky to carry personnel and equipment, and they decided to wait for a special unit from Oslo. And asked why a helicopter was not used, police chief Sveinung Sponheim said this would have taken longer as the nearest police helicopter was at a base in the south.
Q.Would this be categorised as terrorism?
A. So far, there is no evidence to show that he carried out the carnage at the instance of any organisation in fulfilment of its political or ideological or religious objective. It looks like the acts of an angry individual mind, which was partly irrational and partly rational. The irrationality is seen in the gruesome nature of the acts committed and in the absence of any post-facto feelings of remorse. The rationality is seen in the methodical manner in which the irrational acts were planned and carried out.
Q.Will it be possible to anticipate and prevent such irrational acts of individuals?
A.Very difficult unless someone notices the initial signs of preparation for the gruesome acts and alerts the police. The Norwegian Police cannot be blamed for not preventing the gruesome acts, but they could have reduced the gruesome nature of his acts if they had provided physical security to the camp or had the means of quick intervention. It is difficult to say in the absence of details whether the police could have prevented the explosion in Oslo. Norway has had no tradition or culture of high-grade physical security since it is a fairly balanced society with no previous history of large fatality terrorism or carnage. It was not a self-complacent society. But, it was a society which thought it was at peace with itself and hence did not have to dread such incidents. These assumptions and perceptions will change now. ( 25-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Friday, July 22, 2011
EXPLOSION IN OSLO
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 732
B.RAMAN
According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, a large bomb blast has hit near government headquarters in the Norwegian capital Oslo, killing at least one person. The offices of Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg were damaged extensively, but he was described by a government spokeswoman as safe.
2.Police said a number of people were injured in the city centre explosion. Television footage from the scene showed rubble and glass from shattered windows in the streets - smoke was rising from some buildings. The wreckage of at least one car was on one street.
3.All roads into the city centre have been closed, said national broadcaster NRK, and security officials evacuated people from the area, fearing another blast. "Police can confirm there were deaths and injuries following the explosion in the government quarter this afternoon," the police said in a statement.
4.Oistein Mjarum, head of communications for the Norwegian Red Cross, said fires were burning in the 17-storey building housing the Prime Minister’s office. An NRK journalist, Ingunn Andersen, said the headquarters of tabloid newspaper VG had also been damaged.
5.A message of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's then No. 2, who has taken over as the head of Al Qaeda after OBL’s death on May 2,2011, in a US Commando attack at Abbottabad in Pakistan, broadcast by Al Jazeera on May 21, 2003, had called for reprisal attacks against the US and some of its allies for occupying Iraq.
6. The message, inter alia, said: "O Muslims, take matters firmly against the embassies of America, England, Australia, and Norway and their interests, companies, and employees. Burn the ground under their feet, as they should not enjoy your protection, safety, or security. Expel those criminals out of your countries. Do not allow the Americans, the British, the Australians, the Norwegians, and the other crusaders who killed your brothers in Iraq to live in your countries. Wreak havoc on them."
7. While the calls for attacks on the US, the UK and Australia were not a surprise, the call for reprisals against Norway was, since Norway was not one of the allies of the US in Iraq. It was not clear why Zawahiri included Norway in the list.
8.The Norwegian police announced on July 8,2010, the arrest of three men suspected of having ties to Al Qaeda on charges of preparing terrorist attacks. One of them was a Norwegian citizen of Uighur origin. The other two were permanent residents in Norway of Uzbek and Iraqi-Kurdish origin. Two of them (the Uzbek and the Uighur) were reported to have been arrested in Norway and the third (Iraqi-Kurd with a permanent residence permit of Norway) in Germany. The Norwegian police had been keeping them under surveillance for investigation for about a year. The arrests appeared to have been made even though the investigation had not yet been completed because of the leakage of the news about the investigation against them to the media. They apparently decided to arrest them before the media came out with the news.
9. Media reports indicated that the arrested persons were suspected of involvement in plots for terrorist strikes in Norway and of having links with some terrorist suspects under investigation in the US and the UK. It was not clear whether the arrested belonged to Al Qaeda or its ally the Islamic Jihad Union , which has many Uzbek and Uighur members.
10.It is not clear whether the targeting of Norway has anything to do with its role in Afghanistan as a member of the NATO forces fighting against the Taliban.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter : @SORBONNE75)
B.RAMAN
According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, a large bomb blast has hit near government headquarters in the Norwegian capital Oslo, killing at least one person. The offices of Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg were damaged extensively, but he was described by a government spokeswoman as safe.
2.Police said a number of people were injured in the city centre explosion. Television footage from the scene showed rubble and glass from shattered windows in the streets - smoke was rising from some buildings. The wreckage of at least one car was on one street.
3.All roads into the city centre have been closed, said national broadcaster NRK, and security officials evacuated people from the area, fearing another blast. "Police can confirm there were deaths and injuries following the explosion in the government quarter this afternoon," the police said in a statement.
4.Oistein Mjarum, head of communications for the Norwegian Red Cross, said fires were burning in the 17-storey building housing the Prime Minister’s office. An NRK journalist, Ingunn Andersen, said the headquarters of tabloid newspaper VG had also been damaged.
5.A message of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's then No. 2, who has taken over as the head of Al Qaeda after OBL’s death on May 2,2011, in a US Commando attack at Abbottabad in Pakistan, broadcast by Al Jazeera on May 21, 2003, had called for reprisal attacks against the US and some of its allies for occupying Iraq.
6. The message, inter alia, said: "O Muslims, take matters firmly against the embassies of America, England, Australia, and Norway and their interests, companies, and employees. Burn the ground under their feet, as they should not enjoy your protection, safety, or security. Expel those criminals out of your countries. Do not allow the Americans, the British, the Australians, the Norwegians, and the other crusaders who killed your brothers in Iraq to live in your countries. Wreak havoc on them."
7. While the calls for attacks on the US, the UK and Australia were not a surprise, the call for reprisals against Norway was, since Norway was not one of the allies of the US in Iraq. It was not clear why Zawahiri included Norway in the list.
8.The Norwegian police announced on July 8,2010, the arrest of three men suspected of having ties to Al Qaeda on charges of preparing terrorist attacks. One of them was a Norwegian citizen of Uighur origin. The other two were permanent residents in Norway of Uzbek and Iraqi-Kurdish origin. Two of them (the Uzbek and the Uighur) were reported to have been arrested in Norway and the third (Iraqi-Kurd with a permanent residence permit of Norway) in Germany. The Norwegian police had been keeping them under surveillance for investigation for about a year. The arrests appeared to have been made even though the investigation had not yet been completed because of the leakage of the news about the investigation against them to the media. They apparently decided to arrest them before the media came out with the news.
9. Media reports indicated that the arrested persons were suspected of involvement in plots for terrorist strikes in Norway and of having links with some terrorist suspects under investigation in the US and the UK. It was not clear whether the arrested belonged to Al Qaeda or its ally the Islamic Jihad Union , which has many Uzbek and Uighur members.
10.It is not clear whether the targeting of Norway has anything to do with its role in Afghanistan as a member of the NATO forces fighting against the Taliban.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter : @SORBONNE75)
Thursday, July 21, 2011
L'AFFAIRE FAI : THE INDIAN ANGLE
B.RAMAN
There are two aspects to L’Affaire Fai, the case relating to the arrest earlier this week and the proposed prosecution of Ghulam Nabi Fai, the head of the Washington DC based Kashmiri American Council (KAC) on a charge of working as an agent of influence of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
2. It has been alleged that his organisation was in receipt of large funds over the years from the ISI for making contributions to the electoral funds of some US politicians and for holding international seminars on the Kashmir issue some of which were attended by journalists and other opinion-makers from India. It has also been alleged that their travel and stay expenses were met by his organisation out of the funds received by him from the ISI.
3. The first aspect relates to the US angle---why did the USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Justice Department choose to act against him now after having closed their eyes to his apparently illegal activities for many years? Does the US have an agenda in proceeding against him now? I have covered these questions in my earlier article on this subject. (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers47/paper4610.html )
4. The second aspect relates to the Indian angle. Many questions arise here. The first is, have the Indian participants in Fai’s ISI-funded seminars violated any Indian law calling for any legal action against them. No, they have not. Their claim that they were not aware of his ISI background can’t be just dismissed as an after-thought.
5.The second is, was it wrong or unwise on their part to have participated in the ISI-funded seminars organised by him? Yes, their actions do show a lack of wisdom. While his ISI background may not have been known to them, his reputation as a person of dubious credentials with a Pakistani agenda was widely known for years.
6.There have been detailed reports on him carried by the Indian print media itself over the last 20 years. Their own journalist colleagues based in Washington DC had been reporting about Fai from time to time. Here is a man promoting the agenda of Pakistan, India’s adversary with which we have fought three wars and which has been sponsoring terrorism against Indian citizens, inviting Indian opinion-makers to his seminars in an ill-concealed attempt to use them to earn respectability for himself and his organisation.
7. Was it wise on their part to have let themselves be thus used by him? It was definitely not. Any right-thinking person should have no difficulty in admitting this. The third question arises from this. Do the Indian participants owe an explanation to the public of this country regarding their actions? The word explanation is strong and inappropriate, but they definitely have an obligation as Indian citizens to welcome and facilitate a detailed enquiry into the matter in order to see whether their unwise actions have in any way compromised national interests.
8. The last question that arises is, whether the fact that they are journalists gives them any protection from public and legal scrutiny of their actions. It does not and should not. They did not attend the seminars at the instance of their media houses to cover them as an event for their media houses. They went there as individual Indian citizens and hence their actions should be subject to the same public and legal scrutiny as those of any other Indian citizen. They cannot claim and should not be allowed to claim any special protection from such public and legal scrutiny by virtue of the fact that they are journalists.
9. The arrest of Fai and the filing of an affidavit against him by the FBI is only the beginning of L’Affaire Fai. More details regarding his and the ISI’s methods of operation could come up during the trial if he does not make a plea bargain with the FBI. The Indian participants in his seminars should seek to avoid any future embarrassment by taking the initiative in informing the public and the Government about the details of their participation. Such actions are normally not required in respect of participation in foreign seminars. But once it turns out that a seminar was funded by the ISI and organised at the instance of the ISI by one of its agents of influence, prudence demands that one takes the initiative in informing the public and the Government of the details.
10. Times Now and the CNN-IBN news channels need to be complimented for throwing the spotlight on this important development. Times Now had a detailed debate on this anchored by Arnab Goswami and the CNN-IBN by Suhasini Haidar.It is time for NDTV to follow their example. (22-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
There are two aspects to L’Affaire Fai, the case relating to the arrest earlier this week and the proposed prosecution of Ghulam Nabi Fai, the head of the Washington DC based Kashmiri American Council (KAC) on a charge of working as an agent of influence of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
2. It has been alleged that his organisation was in receipt of large funds over the years from the ISI for making contributions to the electoral funds of some US politicians and for holding international seminars on the Kashmir issue some of which were attended by journalists and other opinion-makers from India. It has also been alleged that their travel and stay expenses were met by his organisation out of the funds received by him from the ISI.
3. The first aspect relates to the US angle---why did the USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Justice Department choose to act against him now after having closed their eyes to his apparently illegal activities for many years? Does the US have an agenda in proceeding against him now? I have covered these questions in my earlier article on this subject. (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers47/paper4610.html )
4. The second aspect relates to the Indian angle. Many questions arise here. The first is, have the Indian participants in Fai’s ISI-funded seminars violated any Indian law calling for any legal action against them. No, they have not. Their claim that they were not aware of his ISI background can’t be just dismissed as an after-thought.
5.The second is, was it wrong or unwise on their part to have participated in the ISI-funded seminars organised by him? Yes, their actions do show a lack of wisdom. While his ISI background may not have been known to them, his reputation as a person of dubious credentials with a Pakistani agenda was widely known for years.
6.There have been detailed reports on him carried by the Indian print media itself over the last 20 years. Their own journalist colleagues based in Washington DC had been reporting about Fai from time to time. Here is a man promoting the agenda of Pakistan, India’s adversary with which we have fought three wars and which has been sponsoring terrorism against Indian citizens, inviting Indian opinion-makers to his seminars in an ill-concealed attempt to use them to earn respectability for himself and his organisation.
7. Was it wise on their part to have let themselves be thus used by him? It was definitely not. Any right-thinking person should have no difficulty in admitting this. The third question arises from this. Do the Indian participants owe an explanation to the public of this country regarding their actions? The word explanation is strong and inappropriate, but they definitely have an obligation as Indian citizens to welcome and facilitate a detailed enquiry into the matter in order to see whether their unwise actions have in any way compromised national interests.
8. The last question that arises is, whether the fact that they are journalists gives them any protection from public and legal scrutiny of their actions. It does not and should not. They did not attend the seminars at the instance of their media houses to cover them as an event for their media houses. They went there as individual Indian citizens and hence their actions should be subject to the same public and legal scrutiny as those of any other Indian citizen. They cannot claim and should not be allowed to claim any special protection from such public and legal scrutiny by virtue of the fact that they are journalists.
9. The arrest of Fai and the filing of an affidavit against him by the FBI is only the beginning of L’Affaire Fai. More details regarding his and the ISI’s methods of operation could come up during the trial if he does not make a plea bargain with the FBI. The Indian participants in his seminars should seek to avoid any future embarrassment by taking the initiative in informing the public and the Government about the details of their participation. Such actions are normally not required in respect of participation in foreign seminars. But once it turns out that a seminar was funded by the ISI and organised at the instance of the ISI by one of its agents of influence, prudence demands that one takes the initiative in informing the public and the Government of the details.
10. Times Now and the CNN-IBN news channels need to be complimented for throwing the spotlight on this important development. Times Now had a detailed debate on this anchored by Arnab Goswami and the CNN-IBN by Suhasini Haidar.It is time for NDTV to follow their example. (22-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
L'AFFAIRE FAI IN PERSPECTIVE
B.RAMAN
The practice of intelligence agencies floating and funding non-Governmental organisations and even publishing houses for using them for PSYWAR purposes was born during the Second World War and extensively used during the subsequent cold war against the USSR and its communist allies.
2. In the 1960s and the 1970s, the US media highlighted this practice and revealed the links of many supposedly prestigious US non-Governmental organisations to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).One of these organisations used to fund the visits of many senior Indian Government servants to the US for some purpose or the other.
3. A senior official of our Ministry of Home Affairs, who was on a Congressional fellowship in the US at the invitation of a highly prestigious non-Governmental organisation, was embarrassed when the US media identified it as funded and used by the CIA for softening public opinion moulders in other countries.
4. He immediately drew the attention of the Government of India to this report and asked for instructions whether he should terminate his fellowship and return to India. The Government of India advised him not to do so. It felt that he had not done anything wrong since he had no way of knowing that the CIA was behind that organisation.
5.This practice was also followed by the MI-6, the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, its external intelligence agency. In fact some years ago, in reply to a question in the House of Commons, the British Government admitted that some of the anti-communist best-sellers were sponsored and funded by the MI-6.
6.After the end of the cold war, this practice has come down but has not been abandoned. Intelligence agencies continue to float and fund non-governmental organisations, seminars etc for PSYWAR purposes. In addition, they also seek to soften political leaders by making contributions to their election funds.
7.In the 1980s, during the jihad against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan, considerable money was spent by the CIA and the Saudi intelligence for carrying on a PSYWAR against the Soviet troops through non-governmental organisations. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which played a role in assisting in these PSYWAR activities, which were often in the Pashtun language, acquired considerable expertise in this field.
8. It has since been using this expertise for achieving its-Kashmir-related objectives. Since 1989, the ISI has either floated a number of non-Governmental organisations or has been funding organisations which already existed in order to use them against the Government of India. There are many such organisations in the West floated and/or funded by the ISI.
9. The more active amongst them is the Kashmiri American Council (KAC) of Washington DC headed by Ghulam Nabi Fai , a US resident of Kashmiri origin. For nearly two decades, the KAC has been organising activities such as printing and disseminating propaganda pamphlets and other literature on alleged human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir, holding national seminars in the US to which only residents in the US are invited, holding international seminars to which the participants are invited from many countries including India, lobbying against the Government of India in the US Congress and in the margins of international human rights conferences and softening US politicians by contributing to their election funds.
10. There were strong indications for many years that Fai and his organisation were promoting such activities at the instance of the ISI with funds provided by it. His activities were against US laws, but the US agencies chose to close their eyes to them and refrained from taking any criminal action against him because of what the US perceived as the useful role played by Pakistan as a frontline ally in the war against terrorism.
11.There are two kinds of activities which intelligence agencies indulge in foreign territory--- secret, but declared and secret and undeclared. The liaison relationships for intelligence co-operation would come under the secret, but declared category. Unilateral HUMINT operations such as the one which ultimately led to the killing of Osama bin Laden and other clandestine activities, which are kept deniable, would come under the secret and undeclared category.
12. Since the beginning of this year, there have been complaints in Pakistan that since 9/11 there has been a mushrooming of the US intelligence presence in Pakistan due to an increase in secret and undeclared activities of the US agencies. After the Raymond Davis affair of January last, the Pakistan Government has been trying to keep a greater check on such activities through measures such as asking the US to reduce its intelligence presence and tightening the procedure for the issue of visas to suspected, but undeclared intelligence personnel.
13. The activities of Fai and his organisation came under the category of secret and undeclared activities of the ISI in US territory. In return for the Pakistan Government closing its eyes to the secret and undeclared activities of the US intelligence in Pakistani territory, the US closed its eyes to the secret and undeclared activities of the ISI in US territory so long as those activities were directed against India and were not considered detrimental to the national security of the US.
14. Now that there has been a change in Pakistan’s policy and it has abandoned its hitherto permissive attitude to the secret and undeclared activities of the US intelligence in Pakistani territory, the US has decided to retaliate by giving up its permissive attitude and putting an end to the secret and undeclared activities of the ISI in US territory. That is the message from the arrest on July 19,2011, of Fai and another person for indulging in illegal activities as undeclared foreign agents and the decision to prosecute them.
15. While we should be gratified over the US action, we should avoid over-assessing its significance as an indicator of US solidarity with India or as a precursor to a possible change in the US attitude to Pakistani claims and designs relating to J&K. It is an opportunistic and tactical action to exercise pressure on Pakistan and its ISI to do the US bidding and nothing more. ( 21-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
The practice of intelligence agencies floating and funding non-Governmental organisations and even publishing houses for using them for PSYWAR purposes was born during the Second World War and extensively used during the subsequent cold war against the USSR and its communist allies.
2. In the 1960s and the 1970s, the US media highlighted this practice and revealed the links of many supposedly prestigious US non-Governmental organisations to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).One of these organisations used to fund the visits of many senior Indian Government servants to the US for some purpose or the other.
3. A senior official of our Ministry of Home Affairs, who was on a Congressional fellowship in the US at the invitation of a highly prestigious non-Governmental organisation, was embarrassed when the US media identified it as funded and used by the CIA for softening public opinion moulders in other countries.
4. He immediately drew the attention of the Government of India to this report and asked for instructions whether he should terminate his fellowship and return to India. The Government of India advised him not to do so. It felt that he had not done anything wrong since he had no way of knowing that the CIA was behind that organisation.
5.This practice was also followed by the MI-6, the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, its external intelligence agency. In fact some years ago, in reply to a question in the House of Commons, the British Government admitted that some of the anti-communist best-sellers were sponsored and funded by the MI-6.
6.After the end of the cold war, this practice has come down but has not been abandoned. Intelligence agencies continue to float and fund non-governmental organisations, seminars etc for PSYWAR purposes. In addition, they also seek to soften political leaders by making contributions to their election funds.
7.In the 1980s, during the jihad against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan, considerable money was spent by the CIA and the Saudi intelligence for carrying on a PSYWAR against the Soviet troops through non-governmental organisations. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which played a role in assisting in these PSYWAR activities, which were often in the Pashtun language, acquired considerable expertise in this field.
8. It has since been using this expertise for achieving its-Kashmir-related objectives. Since 1989, the ISI has either floated a number of non-Governmental organisations or has been funding organisations which already existed in order to use them against the Government of India. There are many such organisations in the West floated and/or funded by the ISI.
9. The more active amongst them is the Kashmiri American Council (KAC) of Washington DC headed by Ghulam Nabi Fai , a US resident of Kashmiri origin. For nearly two decades, the KAC has been organising activities such as printing and disseminating propaganda pamphlets and other literature on alleged human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir, holding national seminars in the US to which only residents in the US are invited, holding international seminars to which the participants are invited from many countries including India, lobbying against the Government of India in the US Congress and in the margins of international human rights conferences and softening US politicians by contributing to their election funds.
10. There were strong indications for many years that Fai and his organisation were promoting such activities at the instance of the ISI with funds provided by it. His activities were against US laws, but the US agencies chose to close their eyes to them and refrained from taking any criminal action against him because of what the US perceived as the useful role played by Pakistan as a frontline ally in the war against terrorism.
11.There are two kinds of activities which intelligence agencies indulge in foreign territory--- secret, but declared and secret and undeclared. The liaison relationships for intelligence co-operation would come under the secret, but declared category. Unilateral HUMINT operations such as the one which ultimately led to the killing of Osama bin Laden and other clandestine activities, which are kept deniable, would come under the secret and undeclared category.
12. Since the beginning of this year, there have been complaints in Pakistan that since 9/11 there has been a mushrooming of the US intelligence presence in Pakistan due to an increase in secret and undeclared activities of the US agencies. After the Raymond Davis affair of January last, the Pakistan Government has been trying to keep a greater check on such activities through measures such as asking the US to reduce its intelligence presence and tightening the procedure for the issue of visas to suspected, but undeclared intelligence personnel.
13. The activities of Fai and his organisation came under the category of secret and undeclared activities of the ISI in US territory. In return for the Pakistan Government closing its eyes to the secret and undeclared activities of the US intelligence in Pakistani territory, the US closed its eyes to the secret and undeclared activities of the ISI in US territory so long as those activities were directed against India and were not considered detrimental to the national security of the US.
14. Now that there has been a change in Pakistan’s policy and it has abandoned its hitherto permissive attitude to the secret and undeclared activities of the US intelligence in Pakistani territory, the US has decided to retaliate by giving up its permissive attitude and putting an end to the secret and undeclared activities of the ISI in US territory. That is the message from the arrest on July 19,2011, of Fai and another person for indulging in illegal activities as undeclared foreign agents and the decision to prosecute them.
15. While we should be gratified over the US action, we should avoid over-assessing its significance as an indicator of US solidarity with India or as a precursor to a possible change in the US attitude to Pakistani claims and designs relating to J&K. It is an opportunistic and tactical action to exercise pressure on Pakistan and its ISI to do the US bidding and nothing more. ( 21-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
XINJIANG, TIBET CONTINUE TO HAUNT CPC/PLA LEADERSHIP
B.RAMAN
The situation in the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang region of China and in the so-called Tibet Autonomous Region continues to haunt the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which has been observing the 90th anniversary of its formation this month, and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which has been observing the 60th anniversary of its occupation of Tibet.
2. For the last four weeks the Chinese authorities have considerably stepped up security in Xinjiang and Tibet to prevent any mass protests. July is a sensitive month for both regions---- for Xinjiang because it marks the first anniversary of the violent incidents of last year and for Tibet because it marks the 60th anniversary of the occupation of Tibet by the PLA. The reluctance of the Uighurs and the Tibetans to join in the celebrations of the 90th anniversary of the CPC has been an added cause for tension.
3. More by unintended coincidence than by design, the visit of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, to India from July 19,2011, fell on the 60th anniversary of the occupation of Tibet by the PLA. Before her departure from Washington for New Delhi, two worrisome developments for the Chinese relating to Tibet had taken place in Washington DC. Firstly, despite Chinese objections, President Barack Obama received His Holiness the Dalai Lama, who happened to be on a visit to the US on the eve of the 60th anniversary of the PLA’s occupation of Tibet, in the Map Room of the White House for a discussion to underline continuing US interest in the human rights of the Tibetan people.
4. Secondly, of equal concern to the Chinese was the reported visit of His Holiness to the Washington Headquarters of the US State Department funded Radio Free Asia (RFA), which was started under the Bill Clinton Administration to make broadcasts ,inter alia, to the people of Tibet and Xinjiang.
5. The Chinese remember the role played by the US-funded Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty in encouraging political dissidence in the erstwhile USSR and other communist countries in East Europe. Radio Free Asia has been allegedly broadcasting to the people of Xinjiang and Tibet not only the latest news about developments in their region to which they are denied access by the Chinese censors, but also instructions on how to circumvent the various curbs imposed by the Chinese authorities on microblogging and other social media networks to prevent a copy-cat emulation of the Jasmine Revolution of Tunisia and Egypt by the people of not only Xinjiang and Tibet, but also other parts of China.
6.The Chinese authorities, who view the recent mass demonstrations in support of electoral reforms in Kuala Lumpur as inspired by the Jasmine Revolution, take seriously the danger of the Jasmine effect creating political dissidence in China during the year of its celebration of the 90th anniversary of the CPC.
7. In view of these factors, there has been palpable nervousness in both Xinjiang and Tibet resulting in many preventive arrests and seizure of the belongings of many suspected political dissidents. While these measures have not so far led to the outbreak of any violence in the Tibetan areas, protests staged by the Uighurs against the preventive arrests, which have been taking place for the last two weeks, led to a major clash between the protesting Uighurs and the Chinese security forces on July 18 resulting in the death of over 20 persons---the majority of them Uighurs plus at least two members of the security forces.
8. According to reports from reliable Uighur sources, the trouble started in the central bazaar of the Hotan town in the Xinjiang province when the Chinese security forces opened fire on a group of Uighurs demanding the release of arrested relatives. Enraged by this, the protesters attacked a nearby police station and took some policemen hostage. The Chinese security forces used more force to drive the protesters out of the police station and rescue the hostages taken by them.
9. The Chinese authorities have depicted the incident as a terrorist attack on the police station without giving details of the initial incidents in the central bazaar. The situation is tense all over Xinjiang, but there have been no reports of violence from other parts of the Chinese-controlled province.
10. The Chinese authorities have noted with concern an interview given by His Holiness in the US in which he was quoted as saying that it was he and not the CPC who would determine the selection process for choosing his successor after his death. They view this as a pre-emptive attempt by His Holiness to deny legitimacy to any selection process initiated by the CPC and to prepare the ground for a protest by his followers against any selection process imposed on the Tibetan people by the Han-controlled CPC.
11. The Chinese have sought to counter the attempts of His Holiness to influence his succession in two ways. Firstly, they have sought to discredit His Holiness by projecting him as an old man, who does not know what he is talking about. Secondly, the “People’s Daily”, the newspaper of the CPC, has come out with a detailed article on July 20 on how the successor of a Dalai Lama has to be chosen according to Tibetan Buddhist traditions.
12. The “People’s Daily” article said: “The Dalai Lama recently showed special attention to his reincarnation, which is understandable as he is already an old man. The problem is that the more he talks, the crazier he looks, and the further away he is from his religion. He is like an actor or a politician, often leaving people wondering about the credibility of his words.”
13. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who is expected to succeed President Hu Jintao, visited Lhasa on July 19 to participate in celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the “liberation” of Tibet by the PLA. Speaking at a public function on that occasion, he said: “Tibet serves as an important national security screen for the country. It also constitutes an important ecological security screen, a major base of strategic resources reserve and a major production area of special highland agro-produce. It is home for the preservation of a unique culture of the Chinese nation and a major international tourism destination.” (20-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
The situation in the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang region of China and in the so-called Tibet Autonomous Region continues to haunt the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which has been observing the 90th anniversary of its formation this month, and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which has been observing the 60th anniversary of its occupation of Tibet.
2. For the last four weeks the Chinese authorities have considerably stepped up security in Xinjiang and Tibet to prevent any mass protests. July is a sensitive month for both regions---- for Xinjiang because it marks the first anniversary of the violent incidents of last year and for Tibet because it marks the 60th anniversary of the occupation of Tibet by the PLA. The reluctance of the Uighurs and the Tibetans to join in the celebrations of the 90th anniversary of the CPC has been an added cause for tension.
3. More by unintended coincidence than by design, the visit of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, to India from July 19,2011, fell on the 60th anniversary of the occupation of Tibet by the PLA. Before her departure from Washington for New Delhi, two worrisome developments for the Chinese relating to Tibet had taken place in Washington DC. Firstly, despite Chinese objections, President Barack Obama received His Holiness the Dalai Lama, who happened to be on a visit to the US on the eve of the 60th anniversary of the PLA’s occupation of Tibet, in the Map Room of the White House for a discussion to underline continuing US interest in the human rights of the Tibetan people.
4. Secondly, of equal concern to the Chinese was the reported visit of His Holiness to the Washington Headquarters of the US State Department funded Radio Free Asia (RFA), which was started under the Bill Clinton Administration to make broadcasts ,inter alia, to the people of Tibet and Xinjiang.
5. The Chinese remember the role played by the US-funded Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty in encouraging political dissidence in the erstwhile USSR and other communist countries in East Europe. Radio Free Asia has been allegedly broadcasting to the people of Xinjiang and Tibet not only the latest news about developments in their region to which they are denied access by the Chinese censors, but also instructions on how to circumvent the various curbs imposed by the Chinese authorities on microblogging and other social media networks to prevent a copy-cat emulation of the Jasmine Revolution of Tunisia and Egypt by the people of not only Xinjiang and Tibet, but also other parts of China.
6.The Chinese authorities, who view the recent mass demonstrations in support of electoral reforms in Kuala Lumpur as inspired by the Jasmine Revolution, take seriously the danger of the Jasmine effect creating political dissidence in China during the year of its celebration of the 90th anniversary of the CPC.
7. In view of these factors, there has been palpable nervousness in both Xinjiang and Tibet resulting in many preventive arrests and seizure of the belongings of many suspected political dissidents. While these measures have not so far led to the outbreak of any violence in the Tibetan areas, protests staged by the Uighurs against the preventive arrests, which have been taking place for the last two weeks, led to a major clash between the protesting Uighurs and the Chinese security forces on July 18 resulting in the death of over 20 persons---the majority of them Uighurs plus at least two members of the security forces.
8. According to reports from reliable Uighur sources, the trouble started in the central bazaar of the Hotan town in the Xinjiang province when the Chinese security forces opened fire on a group of Uighurs demanding the release of arrested relatives. Enraged by this, the protesters attacked a nearby police station and took some policemen hostage. The Chinese security forces used more force to drive the protesters out of the police station and rescue the hostages taken by them.
9. The Chinese authorities have depicted the incident as a terrorist attack on the police station without giving details of the initial incidents in the central bazaar. The situation is tense all over Xinjiang, but there have been no reports of violence from other parts of the Chinese-controlled province.
10. The Chinese authorities have noted with concern an interview given by His Holiness in the US in which he was quoted as saying that it was he and not the CPC who would determine the selection process for choosing his successor after his death. They view this as a pre-emptive attempt by His Holiness to deny legitimacy to any selection process initiated by the CPC and to prepare the ground for a protest by his followers against any selection process imposed on the Tibetan people by the Han-controlled CPC.
11. The Chinese have sought to counter the attempts of His Holiness to influence his succession in two ways. Firstly, they have sought to discredit His Holiness by projecting him as an old man, who does not know what he is talking about. Secondly, the “People’s Daily”, the newspaper of the CPC, has come out with a detailed article on July 20 on how the successor of a Dalai Lama has to be chosen according to Tibetan Buddhist traditions.
12. The “People’s Daily” article said: “The Dalai Lama recently showed special attention to his reincarnation, which is understandable as he is already an old man. The problem is that the more he talks, the crazier he looks, and the further away he is from his religion. He is like an actor or a politician, often leaving people wondering about the credibility of his words.”
13. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who is expected to succeed President Hu Jintao, visited Lhasa on July 19 to participate in celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the “liberation” of Tibet by the PLA. Speaking at a public function on that occasion, he said: “Tibet serves as an important national security screen for the country. It also constitutes an important ecological security screen, a major base of strategic resources reserve and a major production area of special highland agro-produce. It is home for the preservation of a unique culture of the Chinese nation and a major international tourism destination.” (20-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
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