B.RAMAN
"Any exercise to demotivate the Pakistani state and help it to rid itself of its fears---which are seen by its army as real and by India as imaginary--- has to start with frequent and sustained interactions between the institutions of the two countries---- political parties to political parties, parliament to parliament, army to army, intelligence to intelligence, Foreign Office to Foreign Office and Home Ministry to Home Ministry. Increasing institutional contacts is as important as increasing people to people contacts to remove imaginary fears of each other.
How to achieve this increase in institutional interactions between India and Pakistan.? That should be the basic question to be addressed. It should be addressed in the context of an over-all vision statement between the two countries. The imaginary fears are more in Pakistan’s mind than in our mind. The Indian Prime Minister should take the initiative for visiting Pakistan to set the ball rolling towards an agreed common vision. "
2. So I wrote in my paper of March 15,2011, titled "Is it Possible to Visualise A Shared Future for India & Pakistan? " available at
"http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers44%5Cpaper4380.html . This paper was written by me at the request of Prof.Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution, US, for an edited volume on Pakistan's future that he intends bringing out.
3. In the background of these suggestions, it is gratifying to note that the two concrete outcomes of the wide-ranging "conversations" between visiting Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani and our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh at Mohali on March 30,2011, have been exchanges of visits by parliamentary delegations of the two countries and an invitation from Mr.Gilani to our Prime Minister to visit Pakistan. The invitation has not yet been formally accepted by our Prime Minister, but during her media briefing at Mohali on March 30 , our Foreign Secretary,Mrs.Nirupama Rao, gave an indication that we are having an open mind on this issue.
4. How to give a forward push to the relations between the two countries without creating an euphoria which may prove to be unwarranted and may come back to haunt us should there be a fresh terrorist strike originating from Pakistan organised by elements determined to derail the "re-engagement" and "re-connecting" process at the top political level set in motion by the two Prime Ministers? That is the question that has been sought to be addressed by the two Prime Ministers during their "conversations". The Foreign Secretary underlined that what the two Prime Ministers had during their interactions at Mohali were "wide-ranging conversations" and not "talks" .
5. The apparently deliberate attempt to avoid a joint statement or a joint media briefing at the end of Mr.Gilani's visit was to create and maintain an air of relaxed informality about the process of "re-engagement" started by the two Prime Ministers without giving it an over-projected formal cloak that could have proved counter-productive.
6. What one saw at Mohali was a refreshingly different approach to the exercise to impart a strategic new dimension to the bilateral relations. There are two defining characteristics of this new approach---- a carefully calibrated "re-engagement" process begun and taken charge of by the two Prime Ministers themselves and the continuation of the resumed dialogue process agreed upon by the two Prime Ministers when they met in Thimpu last year under the watch of concerned Ministers and senior bureaucrats.
7. The first stage of the resumed dialogue process was completed just before the two Prime Ministers met at Mohali when the Home/Interior Secretaries of India and Pakistan met at New Delhi and reached some positive agreements on issues arising from the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai and decided to set up a hotline between the two of them to enable faster and direct communications as part of a joint approach to internal security.The Home/Interior Secretaries' meeting is expected to be followed by a meeting---possibly in July---between P.Chidambaram, India's Home Minister, and Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister.Thus, the two Prime Ministers have left it to their Ministers responsible for Internal Security the responsibility for finding mutually acceptable solutions to the issues relating to terrorism that could come n the way of the "re-engagement" process.
8. The resumed dialogue process set in motion at Thimpu would continue with forthcoming meetings between the Commerce and Foreign Secretaries of the two countries followed by meetings at ministertial level. The strategic "re-engagement" process and the tactical "dialogue process" will move side by side with the two Prime Ministers focussing on the "re-engagement" proces and concerned Ministers and officials focussing on continuing the dialogue process.
9. To prevent an attempt to derail the "re-engagement"process by elements which are against it, it is important that the "wide-ranging conversations" initiated at Mohali are kept moving forward by the two Prime Ministers by taking an early decision by our Prime Minister on his acceptance of the invitation from Gilani and by quick follow-up on the visits of parliamentary delegations.
10.The goodwill and the benign interest in each other generated by the World Cup cricket semi-final was taken advantage of by our Prime Minister to make the "re-engagement" and "re-connecting" process possible. He should readily accept the reported suggestion of Gilani for a friendly cricket match between the two teams in Pakistan in the near future and visit Pakistan to keep this process of strategic discovery of each other going forward. (31-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary(retd), Cabint Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
MY TWEETS (ramthink) TO MY READERS ON VISIT OF PAK PM YOUSEF RAZA GILANI TO MOHALI
B.RAMAN
To be read from bottom to top
Let us wait & see.
If any concession in Mohali is followed by violence in Mumbai during final, credibility of both MMS &SG cd be damaged. Hence the caution.
MMS testing the waters with his big toe instead of getting into it.
There cd be a reference To Gilani's invitation to MMS or SGin media briefing.
MMS is playing it safe.
Who is Sonia Gandhi's foreign policy adviser. Will he or she be present?
Sonia's presence is a guarantee against Sharm-el-Sheikh type faux pas.
With both Sonia & MMS being present, who will talk to Gilani on substative issues?.
Sonia Gandhi wd not have agreed to attend dinner if she feared a subsequent controlversy.
Will there be a joint statement or media briefing? No answers now.
2 hrs of match watching, 2 hrs of dinner attended by 65 persons, off to Pak. No substantive discussions.
Why no one from PML (Nawaz) in Pak delegation?
In Gilani's delegation, among others, are PML-Q chief Shujaat Hussain, MQM leader Farooq Sattar, ANP's Asfandyar Wali Khan, Rehman Malik, Interior Minister, and Hina Rabbani Khar, Minister of State For external Relations
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
To be read from bottom to top
Let us wait & see.
If any concession in Mohali is followed by violence in Mumbai during final, credibility of both MMS &SG cd be damaged. Hence the caution.
MMS testing the waters with his big toe instead of getting into it.
There cd be a reference To Gilani's invitation to MMS or SGin media briefing.
MMS is playing it safe.
Who is Sonia Gandhi's foreign policy adviser. Will he or she be present?
Sonia's presence is a guarantee against Sharm-el-Sheikh type faux pas.
With both Sonia & MMS being present, who will talk to Gilani on substative issues?.
Sonia Gandhi wd not have agreed to attend dinner if she feared a subsequent controlversy.
Will there be a joint statement or media briefing? No answers now.
2 hrs of match watching, 2 hrs of dinner attended by 65 persons, off to Pak. No substantive discussions.
Why no one from PML (Nawaz) in Pak delegation?
In Gilani's delegation, among others, are PML-Q chief Shujaat Hussain, MQM leader Farooq Sattar, ANP's Asfandyar Wali Khan, Rehman Malik, Interior Minister, and Hina Rabbani Khar, Minister of State For external Relations
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
BARKHA DUTT
B.RAMAN
I sent the following Tweets (@ramthink) in response to a comment from a reader on Barkha Dutt, the famous TV personality of NDTV:
@anuyawarty @BDUTT It was a great show by Barkha. I enjoyed it. She was sparkling as usual. I have E-mailed my comments to her.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT At same time, I felt it was largely a Punjabi show.Would make great impact on Punjabi viewers, not on others.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT Inder Gujral,MMS, Barkha, Amarinder Singh & many others. They R unable to grow out of their Punjabiness.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT For them, what they like, others ought to. What they think, others ought to likewise.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT They fail to see that large sections of pple view Pakistan thro diff eyes.Their views shd not be ignored.
@anuuyawarty @BDUTT I have started advocating a new approach to Pakistan. At same time, I constantly keep in mind fact that very few, even in my profession, agree with me.I try to convince them without imposing my views on them.Barkha doesn't try to understand & convince the non-elitist sections who feel uncomfortable with her views.She rides roughshod over them .
@anuyawarty @BDUTT That is why she evoks extreme views towards her. Total admiration as in my case or strong criticism from others
@anuyawarty @BDUTT No scope for a middle ground.Despite all this, I remain her unashamed admirer.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT I consider her one of world's best TV journos. Her mastery of TV medium is unmatched in India.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT She is a born TV show personality.So too her intellect, mental sharpness & courage.Country ought to be proud of her.
The following is a subsequent comment---not tweeted. Barkha has to be careful. She has to be alert. How many of those admiring eyes are the same old eyes that keep following me everywhere? Are there any new eyes among them? How many of those applauding hands are the same old hands that had always applauded me? Are there any new hands among them? How many of those tweeting their admiration to me are the same old tweeple? How many new adherents to their ranks? She should constantly keep posing these questions to herself in order to keep her feet firmly on the ground. She should not be blind to the shifting sands of popularity and adulation. (30-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
I sent the following Tweets (@ramthink) in response to a comment from a reader on Barkha Dutt, the famous TV personality of NDTV:
@anuyawarty @BDUTT It was a great show by Barkha. I enjoyed it. She was sparkling as usual. I have E-mailed my comments to her.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT At same time, I felt it was largely a Punjabi show.Would make great impact on Punjabi viewers, not on others.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT Inder Gujral,MMS, Barkha, Amarinder Singh & many others. They R unable to grow out of their Punjabiness.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT For them, what they like, others ought to. What they think, others ought to likewise.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT They fail to see that large sections of pple view Pakistan thro diff eyes.Their views shd not be ignored.
@anuuyawarty @BDUTT I have started advocating a new approach to Pakistan. At same time, I constantly keep in mind fact that very few, even in my profession, agree with me.I try to convince them without imposing my views on them.Barkha doesn't try to understand & convince the non-elitist sections who feel uncomfortable with her views.She rides roughshod over them .
@anuyawarty @BDUTT That is why she evoks extreme views towards her. Total admiration as in my case or strong criticism from others
@anuyawarty @BDUTT No scope for a middle ground.Despite all this, I remain her unashamed admirer.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT I consider her one of world's best TV journos. Her mastery of TV medium is unmatched in India.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT She is a born TV show personality.So too her intellect, mental sharpness & courage.Country ought to be proud of her.
The following is a subsequent comment---not tweeted. Barkha has to be careful. She has to be alert. How many of those admiring eyes are the same old eyes that keep following me everywhere? Are there any new eyes among them? How many of those applauding hands are the same old hands that had always applauded me? Are there any new hands among them? How many of those tweeting their admiration to me are the same old tweeple? How many new adherents to their ranks? She should constantly keep posing these questions to herself in order to keep her feet firmly on the ground. She should not be blind to the shifting sands of popularity and adulation. (30-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
Monday, March 28, 2011
INDIA & PAKISTAN: NEED FOR A VISION STATEMENT
( Written at the request of the “Economic Times” of New Delhi )
B.RAMAN
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s decision to invite President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani of Pakistan to Mohali on March 30 to watch the India-Pakistan World Cup cricket semi-final appears to have been taken on the spur of the moment. It is meant to be a gesture to impart some warmth to the bilateral relations and to create a feel-good atmosphere as officials of the two countries resume their discussions on various bilateral issues after a long gap caused by the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai and the failure of the visit of our Foreign Minister S.M.Krishna to Islamabad in July to break the deadlock on the road map to resume the bilateral dialogue process.
Only Gilani has accepted the invitation after long discussions with Zardari and possibly also with Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who is closely consulted by the political leadership before taking any important decision on relations with India.
An idea of the likely entourage that would accompany Gilani should indicate as to whether this would be a purely courtesy visit to be present at the match, or whether the two Prime Ministers would hold detailed discussions on bilateral relations in the margins of the cricket match. There is bound to be some bilateral discussions, but how substantial they would be is yet to be seen.
In taking the initiative, the Prime Minister seems to have taken care not to project it as a significant diplomatic initiative or as a new exercise in summitry.
Nobody can find fault with the Prime Minister for inviting Gilani. Indo-Pakistan relations have got into a rut. Only a meeting at the top level can give them the badly-needed push forward.
Unless the leaderships of the two countries agree on an over-all vision for the future, individual issues such as the Pakistani support to terrorism, its claim to Jammu & Kashmir etc will continue to prove intractable.
The time has come to agree on a shared vision for the future. Discussions on a vision statement can be held only at the level of the leaders of the two countries. Neither senior bureaucrats nor Ministers holding different portfolios would be able to prepare such a vision statement in the absence of appropriate guidelines from the political leadership.
One does not know whether the Pakistan Army would want such a vision statement and whether it would agree to its political leadership holding talks with its Indian counterpart on such a statement instead of focusing on solving the individual issues.
As part of this exercise, initially it would be necessary to convince the political leadership of Pakistan on the likely benefits of such a vision statement. Once they are convinced and are able to persuade the Army not to oppose such a statement, the details could be worked out by senior bureaucrats.
For this purpose, it would be necessary for the Prime Ministers of the two countries to hold more than one meeting. Our Prime Minister should use his forthcoming meeting with Gilani as the starting point of this exercise to agree on a common vision---- instead of getting involved in discussions on individual issues. Discussions on those issues can go on separately at the level of the bureaucrats as per the road map already agreed upon.
Since former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee visited Islamabad for the SAARC summit in January 2004, our Prime Minister has not been to Pakistan. The visit of Gilani to India for the Mohali match should be followed up by a bilateral visit by our Prime Minister to Islamabad to continue the discussions on the vision statement. Such exchanges of visits at the top level help in imparting the required momentum to bilateral relations.
We had seen how Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in 1988 started the forward movement in our relations with China. Since then, the leaders of India and China have been regularly exchanging visits and discussing the over-all improvement in bilateral ties despite the persistence of differences on the border issue.
Regular exchanges of bilateral visits by the leaders of India and Pakistan despite continuing differences on individual issues could prove equally beneficial in removing road-blocks in the way of better relations between the two countries.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Research & Analysis Wing, Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
B.RAMAN
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s decision to invite President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani of Pakistan to Mohali on March 30 to watch the India-Pakistan World Cup cricket semi-final appears to have been taken on the spur of the moment. It is meant to be a gesture to impart some warmth to the bilateral relations and to create a feel-good atmosphere as officials of the two countries resume their discussions on various bilateral issues after a long gap caused by the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai and the failure of the visit of our Foreign Minister S.M.Krishna to Islamabad in July to break the deadlock on the road map to resume the bilateral dialogue process.
Only Gilani has accepted the invitation after long discussions with Zardari and possibly also with Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who is closely consulted by the political leadership before taking any important decision on relations with India.
An idea of the likely entourage that would accompany Gilani should indicate as to whether this would be a purely courtesy visit to be present at the match, or whether the two Prime Ministers would hold detailed discussions on bilateral relations in the margins of the cricket match. There is bound to be some bilateral discussions, but how substantial they would be is yet to be seen.
In taking the initiative, the Prime Minister seems to have taken care not to project it as a significant diplomatic initiative or as a new exercise in summitry.
Nobody can find fault with the Prime Minister for inviting Gilani. Indo-Pakistan relations have got into a rut. Only a meeting at the top level can give them the badly-needed push forward.
Unless the leaderships of the two countries agree on an over-all vision for the future, individual issues such as the Pakistani support to terrorism, its claim to Jammu & Kashmir etc will continue to prove intractable.
The time has come to agree on a shared vision for the future. Discussions on a vision statement can be held only at the level of the leaders of the two countries. Neither senior bureaucrats nor Ministers holding different portfolios would be able to prepare such a vision statement in the absence of appropriate guidelines from the political leadership.
One does not know whether the Pakistan Army would want such a vision statement and whether it would agree to its political leadership holding talks with its Indian counterpart on such a statement instead of focusing on solving the individual issues.
As part of this exercise, initially it would be necessary to convince the political leadership of Pakistan on the likely benefits of such a vision statement. Once they are convinced and are able to persuade the Army not to oppose such a statement, the details could be worked out by senior bureaucrats.
For this purpose, it would be necessary for the Prime Ministers of the two countries to hold more than one meeting. Our Prime Minister should use his forthcoming meeting with Gilani as the starting point of this exercise to agree on a common vision---- instead of getting involved in discussions on individual issues. Discussions on those issues can go on separately at the level of the bureaucrats as per the road map already agreed upon.
Since former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee visited Islamabad for the SAARC summit in January 2004, our Prime Minister has not been to Pakistan. The visit of Gilani to India for the Mohali match should be followed up by a bilateral visit by our Prime Minister to Islamabad to continue the discussions on the vision statement. Such exchanges of visits at the top level help in imparting the required momentum to bilateral relations.
We had seen how Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in 1988 started the forward movement in our relations with China. Since then, the leaders of India and China have been regularly exchanging visits and discussing the over-all improvement in bilateral ties despite the persistence of differences on the border issue.
Regular exchanges of bilateral visits by the leaders of India and Pakistan despite continuing differences on individual issues could prove equally beneficial in removing road-blocks in the way of better relations between the two countries.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Research & Analysis Wing, Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
Sunday, March 27, 2011
THE MOHALI INITIATIVE
B.RAMAN
I have been a strong and consistent critic of the manner in which the Prime MinisterDr.Manmohan Singh has been handling India-Pakistan relations.
2.Nobody has written more strongly on his agreement with then Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf at Havana in September 2006 for a joint counter-terrorism machinery than I.
3.Nobody has written more strongly on his failure to deal effectively with Pakistan post-26/11 than I.
4.Nobody has hit out more vehemently at him post-Sharm-el-Sheikh (July 2009) than I for making a reference to Balochistan in his joint statement with Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani.I had also written an open letter to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, the Congress (I) President, on this subject. ( http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers34%5Cpaper3313.html )
5.I had criticised him on other occasions too for what I perceived was a lack of consistency in his policy towards Pakistan.
6.Yet, despite my past criticism of Dr. Manmohan Singh, I have refrained from deploring the initiative taken by him in inviting President Asif Ali Zardari and Gilani to watch the India-Pakistan World Cup cricket semi-final at Mohali on March 30 except on the ground that inviting both the Head of State and the Head of Government of Pakistan could impose a heavy responsibility on our intelligence and security agencies which would be called upon to protect them.
7.My decision to refrain from criticising our Prime Minister's Mohali initiative could be attributed to two reasons. Firstly, I have been feeling for over a year now that Indo-Pakistan relations have got into a rut and that the time has come for the two countries to think of ways of giving it a forward push. Secondly, I saw the Prime Minister's invitation to the two Pakistani leaders not as a diplomatic initiative to discuss substantive issues, but as an attempt to create a Feel-Good atmosphere between the two countries at a time when the atmosphere of suspicions and hostility towards Pakistan in India is very strong because of Pakistan's perceived lack of interest in the investigation and prosecution of the Pakistan-based co-conspirators of the 26/11 terrorist strikes and due to reports on the ingress of a large number of Chinese troops into Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and China's decision, with US complicity, to supply two more nuclear power stations to Pakistan. We are naturally attentive to such issues.
8.The Prime Minister, as I could notice, had taken care to see that his invitation to the two Pakistani leaders is not viewed as "cricket diplomacy" or as yet another exercise at summitry. If he had wanted it to be another summit exercise, he would not have invited both the Head of State and the Head of Government, though ultimately only Gilani has accepted the invitation. If he had wanted to upstage the road map laid down for the resumption of formal talks with Pakistan at the level of senior officials, he would have most probably convened a meeting of either the National Security Council (NSC) or the Cabinet Committee on Security to prepare the groundwork for the initiative. There are no indications to show that he did either.
9.It seems to have been a decision taken by him on the spur of the moment after it became clear that India and Pakistan would be pitted against each other in one of the semi-finals. Because of the continuing cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, we could not have been generous in issuing visas to Pakistani spectators wanting to cross over into India to watch the match. The invitation to the two leaders of the Pakistani people is a gesture which could mitigate to some extent any disappontment in Pakistan over India's reluctance to issue more visas.
10.It is an important, but risky gesture which could have political consequences---positive if the two Prime Ministers reach some understanding on bilateral relations in the margins of the match and negative if Mohali is followed by a serious act of terrorism somewhere. In an earlier article, I had stressed the importance of not projecting the cricket match as another Indo-Pak war to be won or lost. It is equally important not to project the Prime Minister's invitation as a major diplomatic move, which it does not seem to be. We should avoid unnecessarily and unwisely creating either feelings of confrontation over the match or feelings of expectation over the meeting of the two Prime Ministers during the match .
(28-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
I have been a strong and consistent critic of the manner in which the Prime MinisterDr.Manmohan Singh has been handling India-Pakistan relations.
2.Nobody has written more strongly on his agreement with then Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf at Havana in September 2006 for a joint counter-terrorism machinery than I.
3.Nobody has written more strongly on his failure to deal effectively with Pakistan post-26/11 than I.
4.Nobody has hit out more vehemently at him post-Sharm-el-Sheikh (July 2009) than I for making a reference to Balochistan in his joint statement with Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani.I had also written an open letter to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, the Congress (I) President, on this subject. ( http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers34%5Cpaper3313.html )
5.I had criticised him on other occasions too for what I perceived was a lack of consistency in his policy towards Pakistan.
6.Yet, despite my past criticism of Dr. Manmohan Singh, I have refrained from deploring the initiative taken by him in inviting President Asif Ali Zardari and Gilani to watch the India-Pakistan World Cup cricket semi-final at Mohali on March 30 except on the ground that inviting both the Head of State and the Head of Government of Pakistan could impose a heavy responsibility on our intelligence and security agencies which would be called upon to protect them.
7.My decision to refrain from criticising our Prime Minister's Mohali initiative could be attributed to two reasons. Firstly, I have been feeling for over a year now that Indo-Pakistan relations have got into a rut and that the time has come for the two countries to think of ways of giving it a forward push. Secondly, I saw the Prime Minister's invitation to the two Pakistani leaders not as a diplomatic initiative to discuss substantive issues, but as an attempt to create a Feel-Good atmosphere between the two countries at a time when the atmosphere of suspicions and hostility towards Pakistan in India is very strong because of Pakistan's perceived lack of interest in the investigation and prosecution of the Pakistan-based co-conspirators of the 26/11 terrorist strikes and due to reports on the ingress of a large number of Chinese troops into Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and China's decision, with US complicity, to supply two more nuclear power stations to Pakistan. We are naturally attentive to such issues.
8.The Prime Minister, as I could notice, had taken care to see that his invitation to the two Pakistani leaders is not viewed as "cricket diplomacy" or as yet another exercise at summitry. If he had wanted it to be another summit exercise, he would not have invited both the Head of State and the Head of Government, though ultimately only Gilani has accepted the invitation. If he had wanted to upstage the road map laid down for the resumption of formal talks with Pakistan at the level of senior officials, he would have most probably convened a meeting of either the National Security Council (NSC) or the Cabinet Committee on Security to prepare the groundwork for the initiative. There are no indications to show that he did either.
9.It seems to have been a decision taken by him on the spur of the moment after it became clear that India and Pakistan would be pitted against each other in one of the semi-finals. Because of the continuing cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, we could not have been generous in issuing visas to Pakistani spectators wanting to cross over into India to watch the match. The invitation to the two leaders of the Pakistani people is a gesture which could mitigate to some extent any disappontment in Pakistan over India's reluctance to issue more visas.
10.It is an important, but risky gesture which could have political consequences---positive if the two Prime Ministers reach some understanding on bilateral relations in the margins of the match and negative if Mohali is followed by a serious act of terrorism somewhere. In an earlier article, I had stressed the importance of not projecting the cricket match as another Indo-Pak war to be won or lost. It is equally important not to project the Prime Minister's invitation as a major diplomatic move, which it does not seem to be. We should avoid unnecessarily and unwisely creating either feelings of confrontation over the match or feelings of expectation over the meeting of the two Prime Ministers during the match .
(28-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, March 26, 2011
NEED TO GUARD AGAINST COMMANDO-STYLE SWARM ATTACKS AT MOHALI
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO. 708
B.RAMAN
The “Dawn” of Karachi has reported as follows in its web site: “The guessing game ended early hours on Sunday when the Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani decided to accept Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh’s offer to go to India and watch the ‘high voltage’ India-Pakistan cricket world cup semifinal in Mohali on March 30, DawnNews reported.The decision was taken after a meeting between the Prime Minister and the President Zardari, which according to the presidential spokesman, Farhat Ullah Babar, continued for more than two hours. It may be recalled that Pakistan had welcomed the Indian Prime Minister’s invitation to President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani to witness the match and had said that a decision will be taken after PM Gilani’s return from visit abroad, Babar added.The foreign diplomats based in Islamabad, earlier felt that declining the invitation would be a serious mistake and a snub for Dr Singh as he had made normalisation of ties with Pakistan his personal priority.”
2. The “Dawn” report does not say anything about our Prime Minister’s invitation to President Asif Ali Zardari too. The absence of any reference to the invitation to Zardari in the media briefing by Farhatullah Babar could be interpreted as indicating that Zardari is not coming. I would avoid giving a political interpretation to this. I would attribute this to the concerns of those responsible for the security of Zardari about the dangers of exposing him to the public in Mohali. Zardari is the most threatened leaders of Pakistan today because of his perceived closeness to the US, his personal friendship with the late Salman Taseer, former Governor of Punjab, who was killed by one of his security guards in January because of his open criticism of the law relating to blasphemy and his perceived role in bringing about the release of Raymond Davis, a member of the staff of the US Consulate-General in Lahore, who was sought to be prosecuted for allegedly killing two Pakistanis on January 27.In Pakistan, on the advice of his security he avoids traveling in Pakistani Punjab. His internal travels are largely confined to Sindh. There have been unconfirmed reports that all Punjabis have been removed from his close-proximity (bodyguards) security entourage after the assassination of Taseer.
3. It was unwise on the part of our Prime Minister to have invited him as well as Gilani. I have been pointing this out in my Tweets from the moment the announcement was made in Delhi about our Prime Minister’s invitations to both. I am sure that our intelligence and security agencies would have been aware of the very high level of the threats to Zardari and that had they been consulted beforehand by the Prime Minister, they might have advised him to confine the invitation to Gilani only.
4.Presuming only Gilani is coming, the responsibility for ensuring the security of the World Cup cricket semi-finals, while still quite complex, can be manageable. In recent weeks, there have been reports---some of them attributed to foreign intelligence agencies--- about alleged plans of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and other Pakistani jihadi organization to target one of the venues of the World Cup cricket. Till now, as a result of the tight security enforced by our agencies under the supervision of P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, no threat has materialized.
5. Mohali is particularly vulnerable to commando-style swarm attacks of the kind witnessed in this region six times since the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai in 2008. Of the six commando-style attacks after 26/11, three were in Afghanistan and three in Lahore in areas close to the Indian border. The three commando-style swarm attacks in Lahore were directed at a Sri Lankan cricket team (March 3, 2009), a police training school (March 30, 2009) and in a busy area on the Mall Road of Lahore (May 27,2009). There have been a number of other terrorist strikes in Lahore---including on targets associated with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA).
6. In the case of the repeated terrorist strikes in Lahore---three of them commando-style swarm attacks--- the Pakistani investigators were not able to conclusively establish who was responsible, but it was strongly suspected that these attacks were carried out either by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as the Pakistani Taliban is called, or by the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), a Sunni extremist organization or by the LET---- either by acting alone or in tandem.
7. These strikes showed the ability of such organizations to mount spectacular terrorist attacks in Pakistani Punjab and the inability of the Pakistani intelligence and security agencies to prevent them through timely intelligence. The security arrangements at Mohali should seriously factor into the security planning the dangers of a swarm-style commando attack mounted from the sanctuaries of the so-called Punjabi Taliban in Pakistani Punjab.
8. Normally effective defensive physical security for events such as the cricket semi-final at Mohali would depend on effective access control to the venue and the VIPs attending the match and effective anti-explosive checks in and around the venue. In addition, keeping in view the dangers of a commando-style swarm attack in the venue as well as in the town itself, counter-smarm deployment by our own commando units would have to be an important component of the planned physical security.
9. In addition to this, we need to strengthen trans-border security to prevent jihadi elements from infiltrating into our territory in the garb of spectators, picking up arms and explosives from their India-based accomplices and mounting an attack. I continue to receive messages from my readers rebuking me for not recommending a ban on the issue of visas to Pakistanis wanting to enter India ostensibly to watch the semi-finals. The Government should go by the advice of our intelligence and security agencies in this matter. My own view is that this danger could be met by effective monitoring of trans-border movements and airport, train and bus arrivals and by stepped-up patrolling in Mohali itself without the need for a ban on the issue of visas till the semi-finals are over.
10. Gilani’s personal security from the moment he arrives in India and till he lands back in Pakistan will be our responsibility. While his close-proximity security (personal bodyguards) would be the responsibility of the Pakistani VIP security set-up, the access control and anti-explosive and anti-swarm checks would be our responsibility. These have to be planned with precision and a lot of attention to details.
11. Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies would have already stepped up their intelligence coverage---human as well as technical. We should not fight shy of asking the US to step up its coverage too in the entire Af-Pak region with the focus on detecting and neutralizing any threats to his security while he is in India.( 27-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The “Dawn” of Karachi has reported as follows in its web site: “The guessing game ended early hours on Sunday when the Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani decided to accept Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh’s offer to go to India and watch the ‘high voltage’ India-Pakistan cricket world cup semifinal in Mohali on March 30, DawnNews reported.The decision was taken after a meeting between the Prime Minister and the President Zardari, which according to the presidential spokesman, Farhat Ullah Babar, continued for more than two hours. It may be recalled that Pakistan had welcomed the Indian Prime Minister’s invitation to President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani to witness the match and had said that a decision will be taken after PM Gilani’s return from visit abroad, Babar added.The foreign diplomats based in Islamabad, earlier felt that declining the invitation would be a serious mistake and a snub for Dr Singh as he had made normalisation of ties with Pakistan his personal priority.”
2. The “Dawn” report does not say anything about our Prime Minister’s invitation to President Asif Ali Zardari too. The absence of any reference to the invitation to Zardari in the media briefing by Farhatullah Babar could be interpreted as indicating that Zardari is not coming. I would avoid giving a political interpretation to this. I would attribute this to the concerns of those responsible for the security of Zardari about the dangers of exposing him to the public in Mohali. Zardari is the most threatened leaders of Pakistan today because of his perceived closeness to the US, his personal friendship with the late Salman Taseer, former Governor of Punjab, who was killed by one of his security guards in January because of his open criticism of the law relating to blasphemy and his perceived role in bringing about the release of Raymond Davis, a member of the staff of the US Consulate-General in Lahore, who was sought to be prosecuted for allegedly killing two Pakistanis on January 27.In Pakistan, on the advice of his security he avoids traveling in Pakistani Punjab. His internal travels are largely confined to Sindh. There have been unconfirmed reports that all Punjabis have been removed from his close-proximity (bodyguards) security entourage after the assassination of Taseer.
3. It was unwise on the part of our Prime Minister to have invited him as well as Gilani. I have been pointing this out in my Tweets from the moment the announcement was made in Delhi about our Prime Minister’s invitations to both. I am sure that our intelligence and security agencies would have been aware of the very high level of the threats to Zardari and that had they been consulted beforehand by the Prime Minister, they might have advised him to confine the invitation to Gilani only.
4.Presuming only Gilani is coming, the responsibility for ensuring the security of the World Cup cricket semi-finals, while still quite complex, can be manageable. In recent weeks, there have been reports---some of them attributed to foreign intelligence agencies--- about alleged plans of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and other Pakistani jihadi organization to target one of the venues of the World Cup cricket. Till now, as a result of the tight security enforced by our agencies under the supervision of P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, no threat has materialized.
5. Mohali is particularly vulnerable to commando-style swarm attacks of the kind witnessed in this region six times since the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai in 2008. Of the six commando-style attacks after 26/11, three were in Afghanistan and three in Lahore in areas close to the Indian border. The three commando-style swarm attacks in Lahore were directed at a Sri Lankan cricket team (March 3, 2009), a police training school (March 30, 2009) and in a busy area on the Mall Road of Lahore (May 27,2009). There have been a number of other terrorist strikes in Lahore---including on targets associated with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA).
6. In the case of the repeated terrorist strikes in Lahore---three of them commando-style swarm attacks--- the Pakistani investigators were not able to conclusively establish who was responsible, but it was strongly suspected that these attacks were carried out either by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as the Pakistani Taliban is called, or by the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), a Sunni extremist organization or by the LET---- either by acting alone or in tandem.
7. These strikes showed the ability of such organizations to mount spectacular terrorist attacks in Pakistani Punjab and the inability of the Pakistani intelligence and security agencies to prevent them through timely intelligence. The security arrangements at Mohali should seriously factor into the security planning the dangers of a swarm-style commando attack mounted from the sanctuaries of the so-called Punjabi Taliban in Pakistani Punjab.
8. Normally effective defensive physical security for events such as the cricket semi-final at Mohali would depend on effective access control to the venue and the VIPs attending the match and effective anti-explosive checks in and around the venue. In addition, keeping in view the dangers of a commando-style swarm attack in the venue as well as in the town itself, counter-smarm deployment by our own commando units would have to be an important component of the planned physical security.
9. In addition to this, we need to strengthen trans-border security to prevent jihadi elements from infiltrating into our territory in the garb of spectators, picking up arms and explosives from their India-based accomplices and mounting an attack. I continue to receive messages from my readers rebuking me for not recommending a ban on the issue of visas to Pakistanis wanting to enter India ostensibly to watch the semi-finals. The Government should go by the advice of our intelligence and security agencies in this matter. My own view is that this danger could be met by effective monitoring of trans-border movements and airport, train and bus arrivals and by stepped-up patrolling in Mohali itself without the need for a ban on the issue of visas till the semi-finals are over.
10. Gilani’s personal security from the moment he arrives in India and till he lands back in Pakistan will be our responsibility. While his close-proximity security (personal bodyguards) would be the responsibility of the Pakistani VIP security set-up, the access control and anti-explosive and anti-swarm checks would be our responsibility. These have to be planned with precision and a lot of attention to details.
11. Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies would have already stepped up their intelligence coverage---human as well as technical. We should not fight shy of asking the US to step up its coverage too in the entire Af-Pak region with the focus on detecting and neutralizing any threats to his security while he is in India.( 27-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, March 25, 2011
INDIA-PAKISTAN: GROPING FOR AN ALTERNATIVE
B.RAMAN
The dozens of critical messages that I receive from my readers every day fall into two categories---- the downright abusive and the bewildered.
2. I wrote about the downright abusive ones yesterday. I will write today about the bewildered ones . To illustrate what I mean by "bewildered", I will cite two examples:
* Some messages ask: You had in the past opposed the issue of visas to Pakistanis to come to India to watch sports events because you were afraid they may go missing and indulge in terrorism.This time, you have not opposed visas for Pakistanis to come to Mohali to watch the India-Pakistan cricket semi-finals in the World Cup tournament. Why?
* Some other messages say: We all admired you as a superhawk on Pakistan. We read you every day. We applauded you. We modelled ourselves after you. After making us into superhawks like you, you are showing signs of being less harsh towards Pakistan. You have started using expressions like a "shared future", " need for a vision statement", "need for our Prime Minister to visit Pakistan" etc. What has happened to you?
3. Yes, there has been a transformation in my thinking since the beginning of last year. I have been suggesting in my various articles a more nuanced approach to Pakistan because I have started feeling that a policy of unrelenting hostility towards Pakistan and its total demonisation is leading us nowhere. Hostility begets hostility. Demonisation triggers counter-demonisation.. I have started feeling that the time has come for an alternative policy towards Pakistan without diluting our stand on Pakistan's claim to Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), without giving up our right to act against terrorism emanating from Pakistan and while continuing to press ahead with our co-operation with Afghanistan.
4. The nuanced approach which I have been suggesting for the last one year has the following elements:
* Encouraging Police to police relationship between the two countries by inviting Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, to India, treating him well and having discussions with him on counter-terrorism.
* Reviving the past liaison contacts between the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan and the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) of India. It has always been my view that such liaison contacts on a sustained basis may not lead to any substantive results, but will enable the officers of the two organisations to assess each other in flesh and blood instead of relying on source and media reports.
* Promoting interactions between other Government departments such as the Foreign Offices of the two countries to enable policy-makers such as the two Foreign Seccretaries to discuss freely and frankly how to move ahead in diluting the mutual mental resistance to each other.
* Making a gesture to Pakistan's elected political leadership by our Primer Minister making his long overdue visit to Pakistan in order to discuss the feasibility of working on a common vision statement and to replace the present cynicism and skepticism which cloud the bilateral relations with at least some rays of hope for the future.
5. Nothing may come out of my ideas. But that is not an argument for not trying them out as an alternative.We have to think of ways of changing the present confrontation between two rigid mind-sets marked by mutual suspicions---some real, some imaginary---- mutual hostility and bitter memories of the past. It is in this context that I guardedly welcome the initiative taken by our Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, in inviting President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani to Mohali to watch the World Cup cricket semi-finals between India and Pakistan next week. I say guardedly because I do feel that the entire focus should have been on the players of the two teams who should have been Kings during those few hours when the match would be played. Now the players may have to share the limelight with the political leaders of the two countries. That can't be helped now.
6. My only appeal to the people, journalists and analysts of the two countries is: Please, please, please don't project the Semi-finals as another Indo-Pak war to be won or lost. Project it as a long-missing opportunity for shared fun.
7. Had I been the same Raman as I was last year, by now I would have dished out articles:
* opposing visas for Pakistani spectators lest they indulge in terrorism.
* Ridiculing and criticising the Prime Minister for inviting Zardari and Gilani.
* warning of dangers of another 26/11 by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) to derail attempts towards a thaw in bilateral relations.
* warning of the dangers of a terrorist strike by Ilyas Kashmiri and his 313 Brigade based in North Waziristan
8. All these dangers are very much there. I am sure our intelligence and security agencies are aware of them and will be taking the necessary precautions. I deliberately controlled my itch to flood the public with articles on all these possible dangers because I do want Mohali to create some positive vibrations in the bilateral relations and encourage the search for an alternative approach to Indo-Pakistan relations.
(26-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The dozens of critical messages that I receive from my readers every day fall into two categories---- the downright abusive and the bewildered.
2. I wrote about the downright abusive ones yesterday. I will write today about the bewildered ones . To illustrate what I mean by "bewildered", I will cite two examples:
* Some messages ask: You had in the past opposed the issue of visas to Pakistanis to come to India to watch sports events because you were afraid they may go missing and indulge in terrorism.This time, you have not opposed visas for Pakistanis to come to Mohali to watch the India-Pakistan cricket semi-finals in the World Cup tournament. Why?
* Some other messages say: We all admired you as a superhawk on Pakistan. We read you every day. We applauded you. We modelled ourselves after you. After making us into superhawks like you, you are showing signs of being less harsh towards Pakistan. You have started using expressions like a "shared future", " need for a vision statement", "need for our Prime Minister to visit Pakistan" etc. What has happened to you?
3. Yes, there has been a transformation in my thinking since the beginning of last year. I have been suggesting in my various articles a more nuanced approach to Pakistan because I have started feeling that a policy of unrelenting hostility towards Pakistan and its total demonisation is leading us nowhere. Hostility begets hostility. Demonisation triggers counter-demonisation.. I have started feeling that the time has come for an alternative policy towards Pakistan without diluting our stand on Pakistan's claim to Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), without giving up our right to act against terrorism emanating from Pakistan and while continuing to press ahead with our co-operation with Afghanistan.
4. The nuanced approach which I have been suggesting for the last one year has the following elements:
* Encouraging Police to police relationship between the two countries by inviting Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, to India, treating him well and having discussions with him on counter-terrorism.
* Reviving the past liaison contacts between the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan and the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) of India. It has always been my view that such liaison contacts on a sustained basis may not lead to any substantive results, but will enable the officers of the two organisations to assess each other in flesh and blood instead of relying on source and media reports.
* Promoting interactions between other Government departments such as the Foreign Offices of the two countries to enable policy-makers such as the two Foreign Seccretaries to discuss freely and frankly how to move ahead in diluting the mutual mental resistance to each other.
* Making a gesture to Pakistan's elected political leadership by our Primer Minister making his long overdue visit to Pakistan in order to discuss the feasibility of working on a common vision statement and to replace the present cynicism and skepticism which cloud the bilateral relations with at least some rays of hope for the future.
5. Nothing may come out of my ideas. But that is not an argument for not trying them out as an alternative.We have to think of ways of changing the present confrontation between two rigid mind-sets marked by mutual suspicions---some real, some imaginary---- mutual hostility and bitter memories of the past. It is in this context that I guardedly welcome the initiative taken by our Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, in inviting President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani to Mohali to watch the World Cup cricket semi-finals between India and Pakistan next week. I say guardedly because I do feel that the entire focus should have been on the players of the two teams who should have been Kings during those few hours when the match would be played. Now the players may have to share the limelight with the political leaders of the two countries. That can't be helped now.
6. My only appeal to the people, journalists and analysts of the two countries is: Please, please, please don't project the Semi-finals as another Indo-Pak war to be won or lost. Project it as a long-missing opportunity for shared fun.
7. Had I been the same Raman as I was last year, by now I would have dished out articles:
* opposing visas for Pakistani spectators lest they indulge in terrorism.
* Ridiculing and criticising the Prime Minister for inviting Zardari and Gilani.
* warning of dangers of another 26/11 by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) to derail attempts towards a thaw in bilateral relations.
* warning of the dangers of a terrorist strike by Ilyas Kashmiri and his 313 Brigade based in North Waziristan
8. All these dangers are very much there. I am sure our intelligence and security agencies are aware of them and will be taking the necessary precautions. I deliberately controlled my itch to flood the public with articles on all these possible dangers because I do want Mohali to create some positive vibrations in the bilateral relations and encourage the search for an alternative approach to Indo-Pakistan relations.
(26-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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