B.RAMAN
( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to theother countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel thenegative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been bringing out a periodic "ChineseEconomy Monitor" based on open information. This is the third in the series---B. Raman)
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY, THE NEED OF THE HOUR, SAYS WEN
Summing up the discussions at the Asia-Europe Meeting Summit held in Beijing, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told the media on October 24,2008, as follows: "We will discuss with world leaders on measures to cope with the financial crisis in a pragmatic and cooperative manner.Ithink what we should do to cope with the crisis can be summarized as confidence, cooperation and responsibility.We are very glad to seethat many countries have taken measures that have initially proved effective. But this is not enough given the current situation, and moreneeds to be done.The stability of financial market is key to stabilizing the whole economy. The first important message that the two-daysummit has conveyed is firm confidence, and I think confidence is the source of power to overcome difficulties."
---- Source Xinhua
2.Liu He, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economy Work, told the "China Daily" on October24,2008, as follows: "The worsening global economic situation makes it difficult for China to predict its growth for next year.How fastChina's economy will grow next year is uncertain. To a large extent, the rate will be decided by the external situation.This year, GDP isestimated to grow at 9.4 or 9.5 per cent, down from 10.6 per cent last year.However, the impact of the current financial turbulence on oureconomy is much less than in the rest of the world. China can use the downturn as an opportunity to restructure its economy, which hasrelied heavily on government investment, foreign trade and low-cost technology over the past years. When the economy is experiencing fastgrowth, companies are unwilling to upgrade their technologies.The slowdown gives such firms the opportunity to enhance their competitiveedge through better technologies."
----Source "China Daily"
ELECTRONIC EXPORTS CONTINUE TO GROW, BUT LESS RAPIDLY
3.China's trade in electronic and information products increased during the first eight months of 2008, but the growth rate of both exportsand imports decreased.Electronic and information products constitute the largest single item in terms of value in China's exportbasket.About two-thirds of the exports come from wholly foreign -owned manufacturing units in China----mainly from Japan, South Korea,Hong Kong and Taiwan--- 16 per cent from joint ventures and the remaining 18 per cent from wholly Chinese-owned companies. Theseproducts include mobile phones, fax machines, TV sets, computers, digital cameras and the like.During the first eight months of this year,the total value of the exports of these items was about US $ 338.62 billion , an increase of 22.53 per cent as compared to thecorresponding period of 2007. The growth rate during the same period in 2007 as compared to 2006 was 24.53 per cent. Thus, the exportgrowth rate decreased by two per centage points, but it is still high. China imported $ 246.81 billion worth of electronic and informationproducts from January to August, up 15.45 per cent as compared to the corresponding period of 2007. However, the growth rate was five per cent lower than last year. The imports include whole products imported for sale to the Chinese consumers as well as parts imported forassembly and re-export.Trade surplus of electronic and information products increased by 46.7 per cent to US $91.81 billion , accountingfor 60.4 percent of China's total trade surplus. China exported $4.12 billion worth of software in the first five months of 2008, up 45 percent over the corresponding period of 2007.Software exports surged from $720 million in 2001 to $10.24 billion in 2007. (My comments: Thetotal value of India's software exports is around US $ 40 billion per annum.)
-------Source: Xinhua
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES CONTINUE TO BULGE; YUAN ASSETS PREFERRED TO DOLLAR & EURO
4.The People's Bank of China, which is China's central bank, reported on October 13,2008, that the country's foreign exchange reservessurged to 1.9056 trillion U.S. dollars through September. The figure was up by 32.92 per cent as compared to the first nine months of 2007.Foreign exchange reserves grew by 47.7 per cent during the first nine months of 2007 as compared to the corresponding period of 2006.Thus, the growth rate has dropped by 14.8 per cent.China overtook Japan to become the world's largest holder of forex reserves inFebruary 2006. Till June,2008, the foreign exchange reserves were growing by 35.73 per cent. This came down to 32.92 per cent bySeptember-end,2008. During the first three quarters of 2008, China's trade surplus decreased by 2.6 per cent year-on-year to 180.9 billionU.S. dollars. There was a flow of 377.3 billion U.S. dollars to the forex reserves in the first three quarters. In September, the reserve build-upexpanded by 21.4 billion U.S. dollars, compared with rises of 36 billion U.S. dollars and 39 billion U.S. dollars in July and August, respectively.The monthly increase was averaged at 41.9 billion U.S. dollars in the first nine months, still higher than an average 38.5 billion U.S. dollarsrecorded last year. The average monthly increase for the third quarter alone was 32 billion U.S. dollars, and higher than marketexpectations. The country's trade surplus had been expanding by more than 27 billion U.S. dollars each month in the third quarter, whichalso overran market expectations. Tan Yaling, a China International Economic Relations Society economist, said the growth in forexreserves also indicated a growing interest in yuan assets as a haven for investment amid the global turmoil. "Under the current financialcrisis that originated in the United States and with the euro also softening, China's yuan-denominated assets appear relatively safer andcreated an influx of foreign investment, which also contributed to the growth in the third quarter." Zhang Bin, a Chinese Academy of SocialSciences researcher, said the U.S. financial crisis had a limited impact on the country's huge forex reserves, as the forex supervisor haddiversified the holdings so as to avert some risks. Through September, the M2 -- a broad measure of money supply, which covers cash incirculation plus all deposits -- grew by 15.29 per cent from a year ago to 45.29 trillion yuan (6.7 trillion U.S. dollars). The M2 growth was 0.71percentage points lower than the previous month. The figure had fallen for the fourth consecutive month as the government's tighteningmeasures started to take hold. Tightening policies, including several interest rate hikes, since the end of last year, adopted to fight soaringinflation and overheating risks, however, had recently been replaced by two rate cuts in less than a month. Such moves were taken to boostthe domestic economy amid worries over the deepening global financial crisis. Through September, the narrow measure of money supply,M1, was up 9.43 percent to 15.57 trillion yuan, again lower than the 11.48 percent rise in August.The central bank report also claimed thatthe country's financial system remained stable. Outstanding local currency loans expanded 14.48 percent to 29.65 trillion yuan. The growthwas 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous month. Outstanding loans in foreign currencies, however, rose 30.86 percent to 269.2billion U.S. dollars, compared with a gain of 37.84 percent in August. The report said local-currency deposits were up 18.79 percent to 45.49trillion yuan, while foreign-currency deposits grew 9.37 percent to 174.2 billion U.S. dollars. Local-currency transactions on the inter-bankmarket reached 9.49 trillion yuan last month. Average daily transactions were 451.9 billion yuan, up 17 percent year on year.
---- Source Xinhua
ASSESSMENT
5.My comments: While the toy industry is in a state of serious crisis due to a steep fall in demands from the US, the electronic and information products industries, which contribute nearly 60 per cent of China's trade surplus, continue to do well. There has been a declinein orders as compared to 2007, but not very high. However, if this decline expands in the coming months, that could add to the difficultiesfaced. The foreign exchange reserves continue to bulge despite a slight drop in trade surplus.The fall in the flow of reserves due to a slightdrop in trade surplus has been compensated by a flow of money from foreign investors, who prefer yuan-denominated assets to US dollar and Euro denominated ones.One does not know how much of China's foreign exchange reserves has been invested in the US Treasury bonds. If these bonds lose in value as a result of the melt-down in the US, that could aggravate the difficulties. The Chinese leaders and officials are projecting a picture of confidence that they will be able to keep their economy stable. Whether their confidence is justified or not would beevident only by January. Presently, the electronic and information products and textiles industries are doing well on the basis of the exportorders received before the melt-down started in the West. What inpact the melt-down has on post-September orders would be evident onlyby January. The present Chinese worry is over the spectre of unemployment as the export orders come down. How healthy is their banking system? An answer to this question is not yet available.
(The writer is Additional Secretary(retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Monday, November 3, 2008
TIBET: 'STATUS QUO PLUS' AS AN OPTION?
B.RAMAN
There is a note of increasing dejection in the post-Olympics statements and comments of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and his spokesmenregarding the future of Tibet. His hopes that in the wake of the protest demonstrations in Tibet in March,2008, the international communitywill step up pressure on Beijing to reach an accommodation with him have been belied. The restrained post-March 2008 reactions of theinternational community have shown that the economic links of the West with China have become so strong that the West is not prepared torisk this linkage by over-focussing on the Tibet issue to the annoyance of China. Apart from proforma expressions of reverence for HisHoliness and of support for the improvement of human rights in Tibet, the West is disinclined to do anything more. It has come to therealisation that it won't be desirable to exploit Tibet as a card against China.
2.This disinclination to exercise undue pressure on China on the Tibet issue is likely to increase further as the West's dependence onChinese co-operation for re-stabilising the global economy increases. Despite the spectre of large-scale unemployment due to decrease inexports to the West, the Chinese economy is still in a stable state. Its foreign exchange reserves ( touching US $ 2 trillion ) have not sufferedany major depletion so far despite the decrease in export orders from the West. China has major worries over the possibility of social unrestin the southern coastal provinces, which would be the worst affected by any recession in the West, but in spite of this, its leaders realisethat the global financial and economic crisis provides it with an opportunity to play a benign role in helping out the Western powers andthereby earning political and strategic dividends. At a time when the West is looking up to China to help it out in this hour of crisis, it is evenmore unlikely than in the past to exploit the Tibetan issue.
3. The coming to power of a Maoist-led Government in Nepal has already affected the political and operational manoeuvrability of theTibetan exiles in that country, who were playing an important role in keeping the anti-Beijing forces alive and active in Tibet. It is likely to befurther affected as the Maoists consolidate their position further.
4.It is this realisation which seems to be behind the note of increasing dejection in the comments and statements of His Holiness and hisspokesmen. He continues to be critical of China and accuses it of bad faith by being not serious in its talks with his representatives on thefuture of Tibet. He has been saying that he does not expect any forward movement in the latest round of talks for which his representativeshave gone to China.
5. He has realised that the time has come for a major re-think of the policies hitherto followed by his Government-in-exile based inDharamshala in India in consultation with the representatives of the Tibetan diaspora and with the international well-wishers of the Tibetanmovement. He has convened two meetings for this purpose.
6.Tenzin Taklha, a spokesman of His Holiness, was quoted as saying on October 27,2008, as follows: " The Dalai Lama is considering amajor policy shift towards China following a complete lack of progress in talks on Tibetan autonomy with Beijing.All options would be on thetable at a meeting scheduled next month of exiled Tibetan leaders involved in the campaign for greater autonomy for their Himalayanhomeland. The only non-negotiable aspect is that the movement will still be non-violent. Everyone is agreed on that.He (the Dalai Lama) has lost hope in trying to reach a solution with the present Chinese leadership which is simply not willing to address the issues.His Holinessfeels that other options have to be considered, and this will be done at the meeting in November.There is no immediate prospect of the Dalai Lama going into retirement. Despite the current sense of frustration, an eighth round of talks with Beijing was expected to go aheadas scheduled this week. Whatever happens we have to keep the door to dialogue open."
7.The Dalai Lama, who is currently on a week-long visit to Japan at the invitation of local Buddhist organisations, stated as follows at apress conference in Tokyo on November 3: "The drive for greater autonomy for Tibet has ended in failure. The Tibetans should be open toall options in negotiations with Beijing. My trust in the Chinese Government has become thinner, thinner, thinner. Suppression (in Tibet) isincreasing and I cannot pretend that everything is OK.I have to accept failure. Meantime among Tibetans in recent years, our approachfailed to bring positive change inside Tibet, so criticism has also increased. So there is no other alternative than to ask people."
8.He said he would be calling a meeting later this month among Tibetans to decide on their future strategy towards the ChineseGovernment. The first meeting to be held in Dharamshala, on November 17, will involve exiled Tibetan communities. This will be followed byanother in New Delhi that will convene international supporters including lawmakers and former foreign ministers. It is not clear whetherthis meeting will also be in November.
9.He added: "I don't know what will happen.Their minds should be open to explore all different options... and not fixated on oneissue.Hopefully their discussions will not be emotional, but intelligent and carefully thought out."
10. The Dalai Lama has refused to indicate whether he would give any advice to the forthcoming meeting. His movement originally called for Tibetan independence. When it realised that independence was no longer a feasible option, he modified their objective as a middlepath----meaning autonomy for Tibet on the lines of the status given to Hong Kong. The Chinese, who have already closely integrated Tibetwith the rest of China and changed its demographic composition by settling a large number of Han Chinese in the region, are not prepared todiscuss any change in the political and administrative status quo. From the stand taken by them at the seven rounds of talks with the DalaiLama's representatives till now, it is clear that , firstly, they are not prepared to allow any political role for His Holiness and, secondly, whilethey are prepared to give him a limited religious role over the Buddhists in Tibet, they are not prepared to recognise any successor to theDalai Lama in whose selection the Chinese Government and the Communist administration in Lhasa had not played aleading role.
11. With the Dalai Lama now openly admitting the failure of his middle path policy, only two options remain:
Either revert to the previous option of independence. This is what the younger elements in the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) will want. They have always been critical of the Dalai Lama's advocacy of a middle path.The independence option had not worked in the past and is unlikely to be feasible in future even if the TYC is prepared to take to violence for this purpose. Moreover, the international community is unlikely to support any violent upheaval in Tibet unless it starts viewing China as a major threat to international peace and security. Such a contingency is very remote.
Or come to terms with the status quo in Tibet with some concessions--- that is, a kind of 'status quo plus' policy. Such concessions could be in respect of the restoration of the full religious authority of the Dalai Lama and his successor with no political role and a Chinese commitment that the successor to His Holiness would be chosen in accordance with the Tibetan Buddhist traditions with no interference by the Chinese Communist Party and State. It is doubtful whether either the TYC or China would accept this option. The Chinese might be prepared to accept the restoration of the religious role of the present Dalai Lama subject to some restrictions, but they are determined that the successor of His Holiness would be chosen by the Communist Party and the Tibetan Government with the co-operation of theTibetan Buddhists, but with no role for the diaspora.
12.The forthcoming meeting will have to take a painful decision on the future of the Tibetan movement. It is difficult to foresee at present what that decision will be. However, it is unfortunately clear that the options of His Holiness and his followers are getting narrowed down.(3-11-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
There is a note of increasing dejection in the post-Olympics statements and comments of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and his spokesmenregarding the future of Tibet. His hopes that in the wake of the protest demonstrations in Tibet in March,2008, the international communitywill step up pressure on Beijing to reach an accommodation with him have been belied. The restrained post-March 2008 reactions of theinternational community have shown that the economic links of the West with China have become so strong that the West is not prepared torisk this linkage by over-focussing on the Tibet issue to the annoyance of China. Apart from proforma expressions of reverence for HisHoliness and of support for the improvement of human rights in Tibet, the West is disinclined to do anything more. It has come to therealisation that it won't be desirable to exploit Tibet as a card against China.
2.This disinclination to exercise undue pressure on China on the Tibet issue is likely to increase further as the West's dependence onChinese co-operation for re-stabilising the global economy increases. Despite the spectre of large-scale unemployment due to decrease inexports to the West, the Chinese economy is still in a stable state. Its foreign exchange reserves ( touching US $ 2 trillion ) have not sufferedany major depletion so far despite the decrease in export orders from the West. China has major worries over the possibility of social unrestin the southern coastal provinces, which would be the worst affected by any recession in the West, but in spite of this, its leaders realisethat the global financial and economic crisis provides it with an opportunity to play a benign role in helping out the Western powers andthereby earning political and strategic dividends. At a time when the West is looking up to China to help it out in this hour of crisis, it is evenmore unlikely than in the past to exploit the Tibetan issue.
3. The coming to power of a Maoist-led Government in Nepal has already affected the political and operational manoeuvrability of theTibetan exiles in that country, who were playing an important role in keeping the anti-Beijing forces alive and active in Tibet. It is likely to befurther affected as the Maoists consolidate their position further.
4.It is this realisation which seems to be behind the note of increasing dejection in the comments and statements of His Holiness and hisspokesmen. He continues to be critical of China and accuses it of bad faith by being not serious in its talks with his representatives on thefuture of Tibet. He has been saying that he does not expect any forward movement in the latest round of talks for which his representativeshave gone to China.
5. He has realised that the time has come for a major re-think of the policies hitherto followed by his Government-in-exile based inDharamshala in India in consultation with the representatives of the Tibetan diaspora and with the international well-wishers of the Tibetanmovement. He has convened two meetings for this purpose.
6.Tenzin Taklha, a spokesman of His Holiness, was quoted as saying on October 27,2008, as follows: " The Dalai Lama is considering amajor policy shift towards China following a complete lack of progress in talks on Tibetan autonomy with Beijing.All options would be on thetable at a meeting scheduled next month of exiled Tibetan leaders involved in the campaign for greater autonomy for their Himalayanhomeland. The only non-negotiable aspect is that the movement will still be non-violent. Everyone is agreed on that.He (the Dalai Lama) has lost hope in trying to reach a solution with the present Chinese leadership which is simply not willing to address the issues.His Holinessfeels that other options have to be considered, and this will be done at the meeting in November.There is no immediate prospect of the Dalai Lama going into retirement. Despite the current sense of frustration, an eighth round of talks with Beijing was expected to go aheadas scheduled this week. Whatever happens we have to keep the door to dialogue open."
7.The Dalai Lama, who is currently on a week-long visit to Japan at the invitation of local Buddhist organisations, stated as follows at apress conference in Tokyo on November 3: "The drive for greater autonomy for Tibet has ended in failure. The Tibetans should be open toall options in negotiations with Beijing. My trust in the Chinese Government has become thinner, thinner, thinner. Suppression (in Tibet) isincreasing and I cannot pretend that everything is OK.I have to accept failure. Meantime among Tibetans in recent years, our approachfailed to bring positive change inside Tibet, so criticism has also increased. So there is no other alternative than to ask people."
8.He said he would be calling a meeting later this month among Tibetans to decide on their future strategy towards the ChineseGovernment. The first meeting to be held in Dharamshala, on November 17, will involve exiled Tibetan communities. This will be followed byanother in New Delhi that will convene international supporters including lawmakers and former foreign ministers. It is not clear whetherthis meeting will also be in November.
9.He added: "I don't know what will happen.Their minds should be open to explore all different options... and not fixated on oneissue.Hopefully their discussions will not be emotional, but intelligent and carefully thought out."
10. The Dalai Lama has refused to indicate whether he would give any advice to the forthcoming meeting. His movement originally called for Tibetan independence. When it realised that independence was no longer a feasible option, he modified their objective as a middlepath----meaning autonomy for Tibet on the lines of the status given to Hong Kong. The Chinese, who have already closely integrated Tibetwith the rest of China and changed its demographic composition by settling a large number of Han Chinese in the region, are not prepared todiscuss any change in the political and administrative status quo. From the stand taken by them at the seven rounds of talks with the DalaiLama's representatives till now, it is clear that , firstly, they are not prepared to allow any political role for His Holiness and, secondly, whilethey are prepared to give him a limited religious role over the Buddhists in Tibet, they are not prepared to recognise any successor to theDalai Lama in whose selection the Chinese Government and the Communist administration in Lhasa had not played aleading role.
11. With the Dalai Lama now openly admitting the failure of his middle path policy, only two options remain:
Either revert to the previous option of independence. This is what the younger elements in the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) will want. They have always been critical of the Dalai Lama's advocacy of a middle path.The independence option had not worked in the past and is unlikely to be feasible in future even if the TYC is prepared to take to violence for this purpose. Moreover, the international community is unlikely to support any violent upheaval in Tibet unless it starts viewing China as a major threat to international peace and security. Such a contingency is very remote.
Or come to terms with the status quo in Tibet with some concessions--- that is, a kind of 'status quo plus' policy. Such concessions could be in respect of the restoration of the full religious authority of the Dalai Lama and his successor with no political role and a Chinese commitment that the successor to His Holiness would be chosen in accordance with the Tibetan Buddhist traditions with no interference by the Chinese Communist Party and State. It is doubtful whether either the TYC or China would accept this option. The Chinese might be prepared to accept the restoration of the religious role of the present Dalai Lama subject to some restrictions, but they are determined that the successor of His Holiness would be chosen by the Communist Party and the Tibetan Government with the co-operation of theTibetan Buddhists, but with no role for the diaspora.
12.The forthcoming meeting will have to take a painful decision on the future of the Tibetan movement. It is difficult to foresee at present what that decision will be. However, it is unfortunately clear that the options of His Holiness and his followers are getting narrowed down.(3-11-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, November 1, 2008
RESPONSE TO A READER'S MAIL
I have received many mails from the US in response to my piece on Senator Barrack Obama. Some of them----possibly from supporters of Obama--- are downright abusive and sarcastic and some---possibly from supporters of McCain--- are inquisitive. I am extracting and reproducing below my reply to one of the mails. B.Raman
-----------------------------
"Thanks for your message. I did receive your earlier message, but could not reply in time. I have mentioned in my piece why I feel troubled---- as an Indian--- by what seems to me to be a lack of transparency with regard to Senator Obama. It is a fact that in the 1980s many Afro-Americans embraced Islam and went to Pakistan. An organisation called Jamaat-ul-Fuqra headed by a Pakistani cleric then based in the US and married to two Afro-American girls played an important role in the recruitment of the Afro-Americans and sending them to Pakistan. I had written extensively on this organisation for various online publications. I understand that----interestingly---- a US think tank associated with the US Armed Forces has carried recently an article on this subject . I have not yet read that article. If I remember correctly, the name of that journal is Sentinel. I will re-check and let you know. As you may be knowing one of the purposes of the visit of Daniel Pearl to Pakistan in January 2002 was to investigate the links of this organisation with Afro-Americans and particularly to check whether this organisation had anything to do with the so-called shoe-bomber. Omar Sheikh trapped him under the pretext of organising an interview with its Amir Sheikh Mubarik Ali Shah Gilani.In the 1990s, some of the Afro-Americans had also undergone a training course in a Pakistani camp of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. It is against the background of this flow of Afro-Americans to Pakistan in the 1980s and the early 1990s that I felt and still feel that Obama's visit to Pakistan should have been scrutinised a little more closely. I was surprised by the hostile comments I got from some Americans----apparently supporters of Obama--- to my article, some of them calling me a joker and using similar other abuses. Their intolerance of any attempt to draw attention to aspects which they don't like is disturbing. You should not use this for reporting since you are a journalist. Regards. Raman "
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"Thanks for your message. I did receive your earlier message, but could not reply in time. I have mentioned in my piece why I feel troubled---- as an Indian--- by what seems to me to be a lack of transparency with regard to Senator Obama. It is a fact that in the 1980s many Afro-Americans embraced Islam and went to Pakistan. An organisation called Jamaat-ul-Fuqra headed by a Pakistani cleric then based in the US and married to two Afro-American girls played an important role in the recruitment of the Afro-Americans and sending them to Pakistan. I had written extensively on this organisation for various online publications. I understand that----interestingly---- a US think tank associated with the US Armed Forces has carried recently an article on this subject . I have not yet read that article. If I remember correctly, the name of that journal is Sentinel. I will re-check and let you know. As you may be knowing one of the purposes of the visit of Daniel Pearl to Pakistan in January 2002 was to investigate the links of this organisation with Afro-Americans and particularly to check whether this organisation had anything to do with the so-called shoe-bomber. Omar Sheikh trapped him under the pretext of organising an interview with its Amir Sheikh Mubarik Ali Shah Gilani.In the 1990s, some of the Afro-Americans had also undergone a training course in a Pakistani camp of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. It is against the background of this flow of Afro-Americans to Pakistan in the 1980s and the early 1990s that I felt and still feel that Obama's visit to Pakistan should have been scrutinised a little more closely. I was surprised by the hostile comments I got from some Americans----apparently supporters of Obama--- to my article, some of them calling me a joker and using similar other abuses. Their intolerance of any attempt to draw attention to aspects which they don't like is disturbing. You should not use this for reporting since you are a journalist. Regards. Raman "
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
HAVING AN OBAMA IN ITS FUTURE---GOOD OR BAD FOR US?
B.RAMAN
The world has seen made-in-the-Internet scholars, made-in-the-Internet stock-brokers, made-in-the-Internet lovers and even made-in-the-Internet terrorists.
If Senator Barrack Obama is elected the President of the United States on November 4, the US and the rest of the world will be seeing for the first time a made-in-the-Internet President.
The way his advisers and entourage have effectively used the Internet to make him known to the people, to collect funds for him and to project him as a right-thinking person, who will take the US into a brave new world, will form the theme of many likely best-sellers if he wins the elections, as he seems destined to do.
Large sections of the American people are in a state of guilt----- over having suppressed the Blacks for so many years, over having supported President Bush and his Neo Conservatives in their Iraq adventure under the pretext of removing non-existent weapons of mass destruction, and over so many other perceived wrongs of the Bush Administration.
What better way of ridding themselves of their gnawing sense of guilt than to vote for a candidate, who is an Afro-American and who promises to rid the US of the legacies of the Bush administration. Just by casting their vote for him on November 4, they would in one stroke be able to get rid of all their guilt feelings and start a new life as Americans. So they think. As they stand before the voting machine, it will be their hour of the confessional ---- that they were wrong in having supported Bush.
His advisers and entourage have skillfully exploited the widely prevalent mood of guilt in the US to project him as a transformational figure (to quote Colin Powell) the like of which comes but rarely. Vote for Obama and vote for all that that is good and great in the US.
The liberals---- in the civil society, in the media, among the opinion-makers--- have made Obama seem a cult figure. For them, it will be blasphemous to ask questions about his past, to find out who he really is.
Had a white been the Democratic candidate like Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, they would not have had the least qualms in researching into his past and in dissecting every inch of him.
How can one do it for a transformational, cult figure? Cult figures have to be accepted as such without questions. How can one do that for a Black, who is on the threshold of history by being the first Black to become the President of the US? To question his past and his credentials would be racist. So the American voters have been told.
Can anyone in the US or in the rest of the world assert that he knows Obama well ---- his past and his present and what he will be in future? Future is the child of the past.
Obama is a mix of two vintages. The old pre-2006 vintage and the new post-2006 one. All his admirers know Obama of the new vintage. How many know Obama of the old vintage?
Very few. There is no desire to find out either.
Obama of the new vintage has nothing but the highest words of praise for India and Indians. He wants to continue with Bush’s policy of promoting a strategic relationship with India.
What about Obama of the old vintage? Cautious and reserved in exuding any warmth for India and the Indians lest his Pakistani friends and constituents misunderstand.
It is said that as a student he had more Pakistani friends than Indians. He felt more comfortable in the company of the Pakistanis than Indians. It was his choice and nobody could grudge it.
It was at the invitation of one of his Pakistani friends that he visited Islamabad, Karachi and Hyderabad (Sind) in the 1980s. Nobody can hold that against him.
As an Indian, one will be but human if one felt troubled that he did not disclose this till he became the Presidential candidate. He disclosed this----as if in passing--- when it was alleged that he did not understand the Islamic world and its divisions. He mentioned his visit to Pakistan to show that he knew about the divisions in Islam, about the Shia-Sunni differences.
Why did he keep mum on his visit to Pakistan till this question was raised? Has he disclosed all the details regarding his Pakistan visit? Was it as innocuous as made out by him----to respond to the invitation of a Pakistani friend or was there something more to it?
One would have expected the US journalists to have gone into this, to have quizzed him on it. But, they didn’t.
As I read about Obama’s visit to Pakistan in the 1980s, I could not help thinking of dozens of things. Of the Afghan jihad against communism. Of the fascination of many Afro-Americans for the jihad. Of the visits of a stream of Afro-Americans to Pakistan to feel the greatness of the jihad. Of their fascination for Abdullah Azzam, who came to Pakistan in the 1980s and started teaching in the International Islamic University in Islamabad. Of the fascination of some Afro-Americans for him. Of the frequent visits of Cat Stevens, the pop singer, to Pakistan and of his fascination for Islam and the on-going jihad. Of his conversion to Islam.
One might think that I am morbid in entertaining such thoughts and questions in my mind. But morbidity is understandable when one has a feeling that one has not been told the whole story, but only a part of it.
It is the right of the Americans to decide who should be their President. It is my right to worry about the implications of their decision for the rest of the world, including India. (29-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The world has seen made-in-the-Internet scholars, made-in-the-Internet stock-brokers, made-in-the-Internet lovers and even made-in-the-Internet terrorists.
If Senator Barrack Obama is elected the President of the United States on November 4, the US and the rest of the world will be seeing for the first time a made-in-the-Internet President.
The way his advisers and entourage have effectively used the Internet to make him known to the people, to collect funds for him and to project him as a right-thinking person, who will take the US into a brave new world, will form the theme of many likely best-sellers if he wins the elections, as he seems destined to do.
Large sections of the American people are in a state of guilt----- over having suppressed the Blacks for so many years, over having supported President Bush and his Neo Conservatives in their Iraq adventure under the pretext of removing non-existent weapons of mass destruction, and over so many other perceived wrongs of the Bush Administration.
What better way of ridding themselves of their gnawing sense of guilt than to vote for a candidate, who is an Afro-American and who promises to rid the US of the legacies of the Bush administration. Just by casting their vote for him on November 4, they would in one stroke be able to get rid of all their guilt feelings and start a new life as Americans. So they think. As they stand before the voting machine, it will be their hour of the confessional ---- that they were wrong in having supported Bush.
His advisers and entourage have skillfully exploited the widely prevalent mood of guilt in the US to project him as a transformational figure (to quote Colin Powell) the like of which comes but rarely. Vote for Obama and vote for all that that is good and great in the US.
The liberals---- in the civil society, in the media, among the opinion-makers--- have made Obama seem a cult figure. For them, it will be blasphemous to ask questions about his past, to find out who he really is.
Had a white been the Democratic candidate like Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, they would not have had the least qualms in researching into his past and in dissecting every inch of him.
How can one do it for a transformational, cult figure? Cult figures have to be accepted as such without questions. How can one do that for a Black, who is on the threshold of history by being the first Black to become the President of the US? To question his past and his credentials would be racist. So the American voters have been told.
Can anyone in the US or in the rest of the world assert that he knows Obama well ---- his past and his present and what he will be in future? Future is the child of the past.
Obama is a mix of two vintages. The old pre-2006 vintage and the new post-2006 one. All his admirers know Obama of the new vintage. How many know Obama of the old vintage?
Very few. There is no desire to find out either.
Obama of the new vintage has nothing but the highest words of praise for India and Indians. He wants to continue with Bush’s policy of promoting a strategic relationship with India.
What about Obama of the old vintage? Cautious and reserved in exuding any warmth for India and the Indians lest his Pakistani friends and constituents misunderstand.
It is said that as a student he had more Pakistani friends than Indians. He felt more comfortable in the company of the Pakistanis than Indians. It was his choice and nobody could grudge it.
It was at the invitation of one of his Pakistani friends that he visited Islamabad, Karachi and Hyderabad (Sind) in the 1980s. Nobody can hold that against him.
As an Indian, one will be but human if one felt troubled that he did not disclose this till he became the Presidential candidate. He disclosed this----as if in passing--- when it was alleged that he did not understand the Islamic world and its divisions. He mentioned his visit to Pakistan to show that he knew about the divisions in Islam, about the Shia-Sunni differences.
Why did he keep mum on his visit to Pakistan till this question was raised? Has he disclosed all the details regarding his Pakistan visit? Was it as innocuous as made out by him----to respond to the invitation of a Pakistani friend or was there something more to it?
One would have expected the US journalists to have gone into this, to have quizzed him on it. But, they didn’t.
As I read about Obama’s visit to Pakistan in the 1980s, I could not help thinking of dozens of things. Of the Afghan jihad against communism. Of the fascination of many Afro-Americans for the jihad. Of the visits of a stream of Afro-Americans to Pakistan to feel the greatness of the jihad. Of their fascination for Abdullah Azzam, who came to Pakistan in the 1980s and started teaching in the International Islamic University in Islamabad. Of the fascination of some Afro-Americans for him. Of the frequent visits of Cat Stevens, the pop singer, to Pakistan and of his fascination for Islam and the on-going jihad. Of his conversion to Islam.
One might think that I am morbid in entertaining such thoughts and questions in my mind. But morbidity is understandable when one has a feeling that one has not been told the whole story, but only a part of it.
It is the right of the Americans to decide who should be their President. It is my right to worry about the implications of their decision for the rest of the world, including India. (29-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
PAK ISLAMIC ORGANISATIONS ENDORSE OBAMA, PRO-AL QAEDA ARAB GROUPS BACK MCCAIN
B.RAMAN
Despite the strong statements made by Senator Barrack Obama, the Democratic Presidential candidate, expressing his determination to go after Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders even to the extent of sending American troops into Pakistani territory if precise intelligence on the location of OBL is available, jihadi and other fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan believe it would be better for the members of the Pakistani diaspora in the US to vote for Obama. They feel that he will make a break from what they regard as the anti-Muslim policies followed by the Bush Administration. They apprehend that if Senator McCain wins he will follow the Bush policies without any major change.
2. The Shias of Pakistan too want the members of their sect in the US to vote for Obama since his attitude towards Iran is seen by them as less hostile than that of Bush and McCain.
3. In a despatch from Washington published by the "Daily Times" of Lahore on October 28,2008, Khalid Hasan, its Washington Correspondent, reported as follows: " About 90 per cent of American Muslims are expected to vote for Barack Obama on November 4, according to a key Muslim community leader, who wished to remain anonymous since any open or overt expression of support from a Muslim group for Obama is likely to hurt rather than help his bid for the White House. Leading Muslim organisations and groups have been requested by Obama’s people not to declare their support to the Democratic candidate openly as they fear it will be used to decry the Senator as a ‘crypto Muslim’ or ‘jihahidi manqué,’ so much paranoia about Islam and Muslims has been spread by neocon supporters of John McCain and certain radical, ultra conservative church and evangelical groups. According to Agha Saeed of the American Muslim Taskforce on Universal Rights and Elections, “Our goal is to maximise Muslim voter turnout, support candidates who support civil liberties, world peace, universal healthcare, better education, a fair immigration policy and social justice. Even if better candidates were to win on November 4, it will take a long and determined effort to help restore America’s promise, ideals and principles.” The American Muslim Taskforce is planning to release a Muslim-American voter survey in the next few days. "
4. Pro-Al Qaeda Arab elements, however, believe that McCain's victory would be better in the over-all interest of the global jihad against the so-called Crusaders. They are calculating that by persisting with the policies of the Bush administration he could aggravate the economic mess in the US and other Western countries and this would help the cause of the global jihad against the so-called crusaders. They are describing the economic difficulties of the US as a punishment meted out by Allah in reprisal for the US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and project the crisis in the Wall Street and other stock markets of the West as Allah's third front to help the Muslims. It remains to be seen what position, if any, Al Qaeda officially takes.(28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Despite the strong statements made by Senator Barrack Obama, the Democratic Presidential candidate, expressing his determination to go after Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders even to the extent of sending American troops into Pakistani territory if precise intelligence on the location of OBL is available, jihadi and other fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan believe it would be better for the members of the Pakistani diaspora in the US to vote for Obama. They feel that he will make a break from what they regard as the anti-Muslim policies followed by the Bush Administration. They apprehend that if Senator McCain wins he will follow the Bush policies without any major change.
2. The Shias of Pakistan too want the members of their sect in the US to vote for Obama since his attitude towards Iran is seen by them as less hostile than that of Bush and McCain.
3. In a despatch from Washington published by the "Daily Times" of Lahore on October 28,2008, Khalid Hasan, its Washington Correspondent, reported as follows: " About 90 per cent of American Muslims are expected to vote for Barack Obama on November 4, according to a key Muslim community leader, who wished to remain anonymous since any open or overt expression of support from a Muslim group for Obama is likely to hurt rather than help his bid for the White House. Leading Muslim organisations and groups have been requested by Obama’s people not to declare their support to the Democratic candidate openly as they fear it will be used to decry the Senator as a ‘crypto Muslim’ or ‘jihahidi manqué,’ so much paranoia about Islam and Muslims has been spread by neocon supporters of John McCain and certain radical, ultra conservative church and evangelical groups. According to Agha Saeed of the American Muslim Taskforce on Universal Rights and Elections, “Our goal is to maximise Muslim voter turnout, support candidates who support civil liberties, world peace, universal healthcare, better education, a fair immigration policy and social justice. Even if better candidates were to win on November 4, it will take a long and determined effort to help restore America’s promise, ideals and principles.” The American Muslim Taskforce is planning to release a Muslim-American voter survey in the next few days. "
4. Pro-Al Qaeda Arab elements, however, believe that McCain's victory would be better in the over-all interest of the global jihad against the so-called Crusaders. They are calculating that by persisting with the policies of the Bush administration he could aggravate the economic mess in the US and other Western countries and this would help the cause of the global jihad against the so-called crusaders. They are describing the economic difficulties of the US as a punishment meted out by Allah in reprisal for the US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and project the crisis in the Wall Street and other stock markets of the West as Allah's third front to help the Muslims. It remains to be seen what position, if any, Al Qaeda officially takes.(28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: WAITING FOR OBL
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO 461
B.RAMAN
It is just one week before the US Presidential elections. We all know all that we want to know about the two candidates Senators JohnMcCain of the Republican Party and Senator Barrack Obama of the Democratic Party. We also know what the American people think of themand their ideas for the future through the public opinion polls which, without an exception, predict voter approval for Obama and hisideas----whether relating to the economy, the so-called war against terrorism or Iran's nuclear programme.
2.But there is still a missing gap in our knowledge---what Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda think of the two candidates and their proposedpolicies. On the eve of the Presidential elections of 2004 (on October29,2004), Osama entered the pre-poll scene in the US with a videomessage to the American people, which poured scorn over American claims regarding the war. Commenting on his message, I wrote: "As the date of the polls approached, there was feverish speculation as to whether Bush, helped by President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan,would produce OBL before the American people like a magician producing a rabbit out of his hat and thereby make Kerry look silly and wina thumping victory. Instead of Bush producing OBL and embarrassing Kerry, it is OBL's spin-masters who have produced him before thevoters, making Bush, Kerry and everybody else in the US look silly and confused." (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1155.html)
3. Is OBL planning a similar entry into the poll scene before the Americans vote? It will be out of keeping with him if he does not. Watch outduring the days to come. Will he pour scorn over McCain and Bush just as Al Qaeda web sites are already doing? What will he say about thestatements of Obama about his determination to hunt for OBL, even if he has to send the US troops into Pakistani territory to catchhim---provided he has precise intelligence? Will he talk of what the jihadis in Pakistan and Afghanistan describe as the newly opened thirdfront in the war---- in the Wall Street?
4. Or will the expected message fail to materialise? If it fails to come, that will be more significant than his message if it does come. Failureto materialise would mean that there is something wrong somewhere in the Pashtun belt from where OBL is stated to be operating. The US and the Asif Ali Zardari Government in Pakistan----while pretending to criticise in open each other's counter-terrorism policies---- have beensecretly co-operating and co-ordinating their operations even more closely than was the case under Pervez Musharraf---- the US from the airthrough repeated air strikes by pilotless drones in the two Waziristans and through aerial surveillance and the Pakistan Army and theFrontier Corps on the ground in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat Valley.
5. It is apparent that the stepped up operations both by the Americans and the Pakistanis are not unrelated to the Presidential polls. If theAmericans can get a high-value target such as OBL or his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri before the polls, it will not only redound to the credit ofBush before he leaves office, but could also benefit McCain, who is desperately trying to avert a seeming rout in the elections.
6. Al Qaeda's foreign volunteers are on the run from village to village, from mosque to mosque and from madrasa to madrasa to protectthemselves from the air strikes of the US and Pakistan. The war against terrorism has seen intense air strikes in Afghan territory from thebeginning. Since Zardari's meeting with Bush in New York in September, it has been seeing an intense wave of air strikes in Pakistaniterritory. US planes have been flying across Pakistani air space over the tribal belt as if they are flying in US air space without worryingabout the proforma criticism from Pakistani leaders and officials and repeatedly attacking suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs. They have killedmany, but not the ones that matter.
7. What stands between the US and OBL or Zawahiri is just luck and a little bit of advance intelligence. Both have eluded the US so far. Forair strikes, the US has to be lucky only once. OBL and Zawahiri have to be lucky every time.
8. OBL must be constantly moving to deny that one stroke of luck to the US. How serious is the ground position for him? One will get ananswer either way---whether his pre-poll message materialises or does not. (28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
It is just one week before the US Presidential elections. We all know all that we want to know about the two candidates Senators JohnMcCain of the Republican Party and Senator Barrack Obama of the Democratic Party. We also know what the American people think of themand their ideas for the future through the public opinion polls which, without an exception, predict voter approval for Obama and hisideas----whether relating to the economy, the so-called war against terrorism or Iran's nuclear programme.
2.But there is still a missing gap in our knowledge---what Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda think of the two candidates and their proposedpolicies. On the eve of the Presidential elections of 2004 (on October29,2004), Osama entered the pre-poll scene in the US with a videomessage to the American people, which poured scorn over American claims regarding the war. Commenting on his message, I wrote: "As the date of the polls approached, there was feverish speculation as to whether Bush, helped by President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan,would produce OBL before the American people like a magician producing a rabbit out of his hat and thereby make Kerry look silly and wina thumping victory. Instead of Bush producing OBL and embarrassing Kerry, it is OBL's spin-masters who have produced him before thevoters, making Bush, Kerry and everybody else in the US look silly and confused." (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1155.html)
3. Is OBL planning a similar entry into the poll scene before the Americans vote? It will be out of keeping with him if he does not. Watch outduring the days to come. Will he pour scorn over McCain and Bush just as Al Qaeda web sites are already doing? What will he say about thestatements of Obama about his determination to hunt for OBL, even if he has to send the US troops into Pakistani territory to catchhim---provided he has precise intelligence? Will he talk of what the jihadis in Pakistan and Afghanistan describe as the newly opened thirdfront in the war---- in the Wall Street?
4. Or will the expected message fail to materialise? If it fails to come, that will be more significant than his message if it does come. Failureto materialise would mean that there is something wrong somewhere in the Pashtun belt from where OBL is stated to be operating. The US and the Asif Ali Zardari Government in Pakistan----while pretending to criticise in open each other's counter-terrorism policies---- have beensecretly co-operating and co-ordinating their operations even more closely than was the case under Pervez Musharraf---- the US from the airthrough repeated air strikes by pilotless drones in the two Waziristans and through aerial surveillance and the Pakistan Army and theFrontier Corps on the ground in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat Valley.
5. It is apparent that the stepped up operations both by the Americans and the Pakistanis are not unrelated to the Presidential polls. If theAmericans can get a high-value target such as OBL or his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri before the polls, it will not only redound to the credit ofBush before he leaves office, but could also benefit McCain, who is desperately trying to avert a seeming rout in the elections.
6. Al Qaeda's foreign volunteers are on the run from village to village, from mosque to mosque and from madrasa to madrasa to protectthemselves from the air strikes of the US and Pakistan. The war against terrorism has seen intense air strikes in Afghan territory from thebeginning. Since Zardari's meeting with Bush in New York in September, it has been seeing an intense wave of air strikes in Pakistaniterritory. US planes have been flying across Pakistani air space over the tribal belt as if they are flying in US air space without worryingabout the proforma criticism from Pakistani leaders and officials and repeatedly attacking suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs. They have killedmany, but not the ones that matter.
7. What stands between the US and OBL or Zawahiri is just luck and a little bit of advance intelligence. Both have eluded the US so far. Forair strikes, the US has to be lucky only once. OBL and Zawahiri have to be lucky every time.
8. OBL must be constantly moving to deny that one stroke of luck to the US. How serious is the ground position for him? One will get ananswer either way---whether his pre-poll message materialises or does not. (28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, October 27, 2008
RESTIVE MUSLIMS: IMPACT ON INTERNAL SECURITY?
By R. Upadhyay (From www.southasiaanalysis.org)
(The writer is an eminent authority on Islam and Islamic fundamentalism, with insights born out of long years of dealing with the subject)
Facing the challenge of aggressive Muslim invaders since their first invasion in 712 A.D. and intervention in governance of the sub-continent from 1194 which spread for a period of over a millennium, Indian people are put on trial at every stage. Whether it was the soft attitude of Prithviraj Chouhan towards Mohammad Ghori or the alliance of Rana Sangram Singh with Babar the founder of Moghul dynasty against Ibrahim Lodi or the negotiation the Congress leaders had with Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Indians were always at receiving end. Although, they defied their civilisational extinction with valiant and ceaseless resistance against the alien tyranny and proved the song of Allama Iqbal -“Kuchh Baat hai ki hasti mitati nahin Hamaa” (There is something distinct in us which defied our extinction -correct, they ignored the second part of the above song -“Sadiyon raha hai dushman daure zaman hamaara” (For centuries we are facing our enemies) and therefore, the challenge remained.
Historically, so long the Arabian Indians or ‘Al-Arbi-al-Hind’ as the Indian Mujahideens call themselves - ruled this country; they had no problem with Hindu majority. However, after the failed Sepoy Mutiny in 1857 followed by firm grip of British rule when their former subjects took it as a change from one alien ruler to another, they launched sustained movements like Deoband, Aligarh, Nadwa, Ahl-e-Hadith, Jamaat-e-Ulema-Hind, Tabliq Jamaat and Jamaa-e-Islami not only to restore Islamic power by re-organising their foot soldiers but also to save the community from the democratic rule under the political supremacy of the religious majority. Yusuf Abbasi, a Muslim scholar in his book entitled ‘Muslim Politics and Leadership in South Asian Sub-continent’ perhaps rightly observed – ‘The Hindus looked upon the British rule as deliverance from Muslim yoke, and considered English education as a blessing, the Muslims in their eagerness to preserve their religion and religious views rejected English education”.
Accordingly, the descendents of Arabian Indians mobilized their foot soldiers and partitioned the sub-continent into ‘Muslim India’ and ‘Hindu India’. However, even after the end of British rule and establishment of secular democracy their restive psyche remained a perpetual problem of this country. “
Democracy is a concept completely alien to the Muslim psyche to the extent that there is no equivalent terminology for it in Arabic or other languages spoken by Muslims (Understanding Mohammad – A psychobiography of Allah’ Prophet by Ali Sina, a Canadian Muslim of Iranian descent). After partition, people of Arab descent staying back in democratic and secular India identified themselves as Muslim Indians instead of as Indian Muslims and gradually converted the Muslim masses into a never ending demanding community. Thus, by reviving their communal politics and making it an unending reality with the support of vote-baiting political hawks, they have again pushed back the country in a socio-political environment of British India. Since the closing decade of last century when the coalition government at the centre was confused in handling the problem of jihadi Islamists they re-visited the century old history of Aligarh and Deoband leaders who had a secret understanding against the Indian National Congress, which they had termed as a party for Hindu revivalism.
Their aggravating unrest after Batala House encounter in Delhi on September 19 during which two suspected terrorists were killed and two Muslim students of Jamia Milia arrested on their suspected involvement in Delhi blast on September 13 reminds the people of the Islamists’ rage in the closing decades of nineteenth century, when prominent Islamists like Mawlawi Abu Sayed Mohammed Hussain (d.1919) of Ahl-i-Hadith and Mirza Gulam Ahmad (1839-1908), founder of Ahmadia sect – both belonging to Batala in Gurdaspur district of Punjab state had launched violent movements against Hindu renaissance led by Arya Samaj. Drawing inspiration from the puritan and military zeal of Sayyid Ahmad Shahid who had launched jihad against the non-Islamic Sikh rule of Ranjit Singh, they had given a call for communal unity of the Muslims.
Today, alarmed with the recent exposure of the net work of SIMI and its new incarnation Indian Mujahideen and the spate of arrests of Muslim youths in recent months on their suspected involvement in terror blasts the ‘Muslim Indians’ have invented a self perceived theory that innocent Muslims are victimised by the police to malign Islam. Accordingly, they have been exchanging notes in defence of terror suspects, holding meetings, visiting Batala House in Jamia Nagar, Delhi and Azamgarh and launching campaign not only to prove the innocence of terror accused but also mobilized their foot soldiers against the alleged conspiracy in blaming and targeting the entire community after every terror blast.
In view of their sustained campaign, the Muslims across the country are found convinced that their community members killed in the police operation and arrested were not terrorists. They have gone to the extent of suspecting the death of Mohan Sharma by the bullet fired by his own colleague either deliberately or by accident. When the whole country applauded the Police Inspector Mohan Sharma for his martyrdom in this encounter and Government too recognised it, Indian people barring Islamists and those pretending to be ‘secularists’ are left wondering about the scheme of defending the terror accused.
The Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid, Delhi Syed Ahamed Buqari wrote letters to various Muslim leaders across the country regarding the “bomb blasts, blame game, illegal arrests, torture of Muslim youths” and called for suggestions to fight back this issue concerning Muslims of India. He has alleged that “The highly discriminatory actions of State police forces and central intelligence agencies have let loose a reign of terror to which Central government has turned a blind eye. This is a matter of serious concern for the entire Millat. If we don't unite by closing our ranks to meet this challenge, history will never forgive us. I suggest that all Muslim organisations and leaders must unite immediately by creating one single platform for voicing our concerns and registering protests. For this purpose it is necessary to summon an urgent meeting of all Muslim organisations and leaders at the earliest” (A translated extracts from the original letter written in Urdu which is available in internet).
He also led a march against the Batala House encounter and subsequently called a meeting of All India Religious and Political Leaders of the community on 14th October 2008 at Jame Masjid and condenm the alleged fake encounters and arrests of Muslims Youths. The meeting was attended by prominent personalities like Moulana Khaled Qazipuri C/O Moulana Rabe Hassan Nadvi President All India Muslim Personal Law Board., Zafer Yaab Jeelani (Adv), Moulana Margoobur Rehman (Darul oloom, Deoband), Moulana Syed Arshad Madani President Jamaiat –e- Ulema –e- Hind, Amjed Ullah Khan Leader Majlish Bachao Tahreek (MBT) Andhra Pradesh, Maulana Anees Rahmaan, Imarat –e- Sharia, Bihar, Moulana Wali Rahmani ,Munger,Bihar, Qari Amirullah ,Bhopal and Moulana Mohd Shafiq Qasmi Kolkatta,West Bengal. Leaders like Mujtaba Farooque of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind and Maulana Abdul Hamid Nomani of Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Hind are blaming the government as well as media. Similarly, another group of Muslim leaders while setting up an ad hoc Coordination Committee of Indian Muslims also expressed their concern against the police actions in Batala House encounter and issued a press statement to mobilize the Muslim masses. Instead of discussing the remedial measures to tame the home grown Islamist terrorists they demanded stringent action including ban on Hindu organizations like VHP and Bajrang Dal . The signatories of the statement are: Mujtaba Farooq, Convenor, Coordination Committee & Secretary, Jamaat-e Islami Hind, Dr Zafarul-Islam Khan, President, All India Muslim Majlis-e Mushawarat, Ml. Abdul Hameed Nomani, Acting General Secretary, Jamiat Ulama-I- Hind, Ml. Abdul Wahab Khilji, Asstt General Secretary, All India Milli Council, Ml. Mahmoodul Hasan, President, Jamiat Ahl-e Hadees, Delhi Pradesh, Dr Taslim Rahmani, President, Muslim Political Council, Ml. Zeeshan Hidayati, Chairman, Majlis-e Fikr-o Amal, Irfanullah Khan, Chairman Jamia Nagar Coordination Committee, Ml. Jalal Haidar Naqvi, Secretary, Majlis-e Ulama-e Islam, Gopal Rai, Convenor, Teesra Swandheemta Andolan, and Bhai Tej Singh, President, Ambedkar Samaj Party.
Surprisingly, instead of allowing the dusty storm of restive Muslim minds to settle, Jamia Milia Islamia Vice Chancellor Mashirul Hasan a widely acclaimed campaigner of ‘moderate and tolerant Islam’ through his scholarly writings against the intolerant Islamists also joined the issue by offering to provide legal assistance to the two arrested students of the university and added fuel to the fire. Being an accomplished historian he is fully aware of the politics of communal polarization between the Hindus and the Muslims which took a front seat after the collapse of Muslim rule in the country and turned even a secular intellectual like Mohammad Ali Jinnah into a most communal leader of Indian sub-continent.
However, he led a street march in support of the Islamists which has no bearing on academic issues and made his liberalism questionable in the mind of intelligentsia. On what assumption he placed himself at the centre of a public debate on a communally hot issue may be best known to him but didn’t he anticipate that his action will subsume the acclaimed secular character of Jamia Milia? He might have a point to prove the possibility of the accused being innocent but the way issue is debated in and around the university, it has made the situation from bad to worse. His action has not only challenged the criminal justice system of the country but also created a controversy over the constitutionally framed public policy, university code and communal integrity in the country.
After creating the storm engulfing the country, the university’s Academic Council also issued an ‘open letter’ defending its ‘modern, liberal and non-denominational’ character. The letter while highlighting the names of a number of ‘secular’ leaders behind the foundation of this institution also claims “we were in the forefront of the national movement wholeheartedly, and opposed the pernicious two-nation theory.”
Whether Jamia Milia was in forefront or rear front of the national movement is not an issue of present debate. The issue is - what prompted this central funded educational institution to provide legal support to arrested terror suspects in Delhi blast case and to join with the Islamists on the issue of terrorism? As a ‘forefront participant’ of the national movement, the academics of the university were supposed to instill confidence among the restive Muslims of the country in general and Jamia Nagar in particular in the legal system of the country. Since the university played the same politics as Aligarh had played during pre-partition Pakistan Movement people of the country has no reason to disbelieve that both the universalities are birds of the same feathers.
The whole episode is apparently a reminder to the Muslim unrest during the first decade of twentieth century. On 1st October 1906 a 35-member delegation of Muslim Indians, which included nobles, aristocracies, legal professionals and other elite section in the community mostly associated with the Aligarh movement gathered at Simla under the leadership of Aga Khan and presented an address to Lord Minto. They demanded proportionate representation of Muslims in government jobs, appointment of Muslim judges in High Courts and members in Viceroy’s council, etc. However, after failing to obtain any positive commitment from the Viceroy, they organized the All India Mohammedan Educational Conference at Dacca (27-30 December 1906) which worked as a catalyst for foundation of All India Muslim League which subsequently succeeded in partition of the sub-continent on the basis of religion.
Calling for introspection and self-assessment some of the community leaders have expressed full faith in the security establishment and have favoured co-operation to the police in nabbing terror suspects. Salim Khan, a cinema-script writer and father of actor Salman Khan has even sent a sealed envelop containing condolence message with a cheque of an undisclosed amount to the family of police inspector Sharma. Arif Mohammad Khan, a hero of Shahbano case has suggested fighting the terrorists ideologically. He said, “Terrorism itself can be fought only by challenging it on the level of ideology and thought. It cannot be curbed only by police action” (Pioneer dated 11 October, 2008). Quoting a number of verses from Quran, he has tried to counter the terrorists’ concept of Quran. However, his voice to challenge the Islamist terrorists ideologically will hardly convince the controller of the foot soldiers in the community as they are not prepared to be quiet till the country comes under Islamic rule. Ironically, liberal theologian like Maulana Wahiduddin Khan an internationally known Islamic scholar who is known for his commitment to a complete ideology of peace and quiet competent to challenge the Islamists was not invited to the meeting organized by the Coordination Committee of Indian Muslims.
The combined politics of the ‘Muslim Indians’ and their priestly class have all along been the historical reality of the sub-continent. Conforming a saying - “wheresoever the carcass, there the Vultures will be gathered together”, the Muslim vote baiting political hawks behaving like street urchins spitting at Sun also joined the issue and supported the demand of the Muslims for judicial enquiry against the encounter. Their presumption on the innocence of the arrested terror accused from Jamia Milia without any supportive evidence suggest that the oft repeated Muslim communal politics in secular India by a combined force of Left-Castiest-Islamist alliance has once again become active to disturb the social harmony in the country. Instead of fighting the menace of terrorism they are flowing sympathy for the terror accused. Such negative sparks ignited by them will only make the situation from bad to worse.
It is widely believed that the terrorists involved in the recent blasts across the country belong to one or another Islamist groups with an objective to restore the institution of Caliphate. The success of home the grown jihadists claiming themselves ‘Indian Mujahideens’in attracting some of the well-educated Muslims towards their cause has not only pushed the community into the similar predicament as prevailed after collapse of Muslim power, increased the sense of alienation among them which has a deep impact on their increasing communalized psyche.
The most unfortunate part of the scenario is the role of a significant section of ‘secular’ Indians particularly intelligentsia, journalists, writers and politicians like Amar Singh , Lalu Yadav, Ram Bilas Paswan, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Arundhati Roy whose tendency to run down the image of the country has not only adversely affected the consciousness of saner section of people but has also led to aggravate the communalized psyche of Indian society as a whole. The prevailing Muslim unrest is therefore, a dangerous sign as far as the internal security of the country is concerned. If the people of the country in general and ruling class in particular are not taking lessons from the historical wrongs committed by Indians who brought defeat and dishonour to the nation either to save their throne or skin or self-seeking political interest we are bound to fail.
(The author can be reached at e-mail ramashray60@rediffmail.com)
(The writer is an eminent authority on Islam and Islamic fundamentalism, with insights born out of long years of dealing with the subject)
Facing the challenge of aggressive Muslim invaders since their first invasion in 712 A.D. and intervention in governance of the sub-continent from 1194 which spread for a period of over a millennium, Indian people are put on trial at every stage. Whether it was the soft attitude of Prithviraj Chouhan towards Mohammad Ghori or the alliance of Rana Sangram Singh with Babar the founder of Moghul dynasty against Ibrahim Lodi or the negotiation the Congress leaders had with Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Indians were always at receiving end. Although, they defied their civilisational extinction with valiant and ceaseless resistance against the alien tyranny and proved the song of Allama Iqbal -“Kuchh Baat hai ki hasti mitati nahin Hamaa” (There is something distinct in us which defied our extinction -correct, they ignored the second part of the above song -“Sadiyon raha hai dushman daure zaman hamaara” (For centuries we are facing our enemies) and therefore, the challenge remained.
Historically, so long the Arabian Indians or ‘Al-Arbi-al-Hind’ as the Indian Mujahideens call themselves - ruled this country; they had no problem with Hindu majority. However, after the failed Sepoy Mutiny in 1857 followed by firm grip of British rule when their former subjects took it as a change from one alien ruler to another, they launched sustained movements like Deoband, Aligarh, Nadwa, Ahl-e-Hadith, Jamaat-e-Ulema-Hind, Tabliq Jamaat and Jamaa-e-Islami not only to restore Islamic power by re-organising their foot soldiers but also to save the community from the democratic rule under the political supremacy of the religious majority. Yusuf Abbasi, a Muslim scholar in his book entitled ‘Muslim Politics and Leadership in South Asian Sub-continent’ perhaps rightly observed – ‘The Hindus looked upon the British rule as deliverance from Muslim yoke, and considered English education as a blessing, the Muslims in their eagerness to preserve their religion and religious views rejected English education”.
Accordingly, the descendents of Arabian Indians mobilized their foot soldiers and partitioned the sub-continent into ‘Muslim India’ and ‘Hindu India’. However, even after the end of British rule and establishment of secular democracy their restive psyche remained a perpetual problem of this country. “
Democracy is a concept completely alien to the Muslim psyche to the extent that there is no equivalent terminology for it in Arabic or other languages spoken by Muslims (Understanding Mohammad – A psychobiography of Allah’ Prophet by Ali Sina, a Canadian Muslim of Iranian descent). After partition, people of Arab descent staying back in democratic and secular India identified themselves as Muslim Indians instead of as Indian Muslims and gradually converted the Muslim masses into a never ending demanding community. Thus, by reviving their communal politics and making it an unending reality with the support of vote-baiting political hawks, they have again pushed back the country in a socio-political environment of British India. Since the closing decade of last century when the coalition government at the centre was confused in handling the problem of jihadi Islamists they re-visited the century old history of Aligarh and Deoband leaders who had a secret understanding against the Indian National Congress, which they had termed as a party for Hindu revivalism.
Their aggravating unrest after Batala House encounter in Delhi on September 19 during which two suspected terrorists were killed and two Muslim students of Jamia Milia arrested on their suspected involvement in Delhi blast on September 13 reminds the people of the Islamists’ rage in the closing decades of nineteenth century, when prominent Islamists like Mawlawi Abu Sayed Mohammed Hussain (d.1919) of Ahl-i-Hadith and Mirza Gulam Ahmad (1839-1908), founder of Ahmadia sect – both belonging to Batala in Gurdaspur district of Punjab state had launched violent movements against Hindu renaissance led by Arya Samaj. Drawing inspiration from the puritan and military zeal of Sayyid Ahmad Shahid who had launched jihad against the non-Islamic Sikh rule of Ranjit Singh, they had given a call for communal unity of the Muslims.
Today, alarmed with the recent exposure of the net work of SIMI and its new incarnation Indian Mujahideen and the spate of arrests of Muslim youths in recent months on their suspected involvement in terror blasts the ‘Muslim Indians’ have invented a self perceived theory that innocent Muslims are victimised by the police to malign Islam. Accordingly, they have been exchanging notes in defence of terror suspects, holding meetings, visiting Batala House in Jamia Nagar, Delhi and Azamgarh and launching campaign not only to prove the innocence of terror accused but also mobilized their foot soldiers against the alleged conspiracy in blaming and targeting the entire community after every terror blast.
In view of their sustained campaign, the Muslims across the country are found convinced that their community members killed in the police operation and arrested were not terrorists. They have gone to the extent of suspecting the death of Mohan Sharma by the bullet fired by his own colleague either deliberately or by accident. When the whole country applauded the Police Inspector Mohan Sharma for his martyrdom in this encounter and Government too recognised it, Indian people barring Islamists and those pretending to be ‘secularists’ are left wondering about the scheme of defending the terror accused.
The Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid, Delhi Syed Ahamed Buqari wrote letters to various Muslim leaders across the country regarding the “bomb blasts, blame game, illegal arrests, torture of Muslim youths” and called for suggestions to fight back this issue concerning Muslims of India. He has alleged that “The highly discriminatory actions of State police forces and central intelligence agencies have let loose a reign of terror to which Central government has turned a blind eye. This is a matter of serious concern for the entire Millat. If we don't unite by closing our ranks to meet this challenge, history will never forgive us. I suggest that all Muslim organisations and leaders must unite immediately by creating one single platform for voicing our concerns and registering protests. For this purpose it is necessary to summon an urgent meeting of all Muslim organisations and leaders at the earliest” (A translated extracts from the original letter written in Urdu which is available in internet).
He also led a march against the Batala House encounter and subsequently called a meeting of All India Religious and Political Leaders of the community on 14th October 2008 at Jame Masjid and condenm the alleged fake encounters and arrests of Muslims Youths. The meeting was attended by prominent personalities like Moulana Khaled Qazipuri C/O Moulana Rabe Hassan Nadvi President All India Muslim Personal Law Board., Zafer Yaab Jeelani (Adv), Moulana Margoobur Rehman (Darul oloom, Deoband), Moulana Syed Arshad Madani President Jamaiat –e- Ulema –e- Hind, Amjed Ullah Khan Leader Majlish Bachao Tahreek (MBT) Andhra Pradesh, Maulana Anees Rahmaan, Imarat –e- Sharia, Bihar, Moulana Wali Rahmani ,Munger,Bihar, Qari Amirullah ,Bhopal and Moulana Mohd Shafiq Qasmi Kolkatta,West Bengal. Leaders like Mujtaba Farooque of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind and Maulana Abdul Hamid Nomani of Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Hind are blaming the government as well as media. Similarly, another group of Muslim leaders while setting up an ad hoc Coordination Committee of Indian Muslims also expressed their concern against the police actions in Batala House encounter and issued a press statement to mobilize the Muslim masses. Instead of discussing the remedial measures to tame the home grown Islamist terrorists they demanded stringent action including ban on Hindu organizations like VHP and Bajrang Dal . The signatories of the statement are: Mujtaba Farooq, Convenor, Coordination Committee & Secretary, Jamaat-e Islami Hind, Dr Zafarul-Islam Khan, President, All India Muslim Majlis-e Mushawarat, Ml. Abdul Hameed Nomani, Acting General Secretary, Jamiat Ulama-I- Hind, Ml. Abdul Wahab Khilji, Asstt General Secretary, All India Milli Council, Ml. Mahmoodul Hasan, President, Jamiat Ahl-e Hadees, Delhi Pradesh, Dr Taslim Rahmani, President, Muslim Political Council, Ml. Zeeshan Hidayati, Chairman, Majlis-e Fikr-o Amal, Irfanullah Khan, Chairman Jamia Nagar Coordination Committee, Ml. Jalal Haidar Naqvi, Secretary, Majlis-e Ulama-e Islam, Gopal Rai, Convenor, Teesra Swandheemta Andolan, and Bhai Tej Singh, President, Ambedkar Samaj Party.
Surprisingly, instead of allowing the dusty storm of restive Muslim minds to settle, Jamia Milia Islamia Vice Chancellor Mashirul Hasan a widely acclaimed campaigner of ‘moderate and tolerant Islam’ through his scholarly writings against the intolerant Islamists also joined the issue by offering to provide legal assistance to the two arrested students of the university and added fuel to the fire. Being an accomplished historian he is fully aware of the politics of communal polarization between the Hindus and the Muslims which took a front seat after the collapse of Muslim rule in the country and turned even a secular intellectual like Mohammad Ali Jinnah into a most communal leader of Indian sub-continent.
However, he led a street march in support of the Islamists which has no bearing on academic issues and made his liberalism questionable in the mind of intelligentsia. On what assumption he placed himself at the centre of a public debate on a communally hot issue may be best known to him but didn’t he anticipate that his action will subsume the acclaimed secular character of Jamia Milia? He might have a point to prove the possibility of the accused being innocent but the way issue is debated in and around the university, it has made the situation from bad to worse. His action has not only challenged the criminal justice system of the country but also created a controversy over the constitutionally framed public policy, university code and communal integrity in the country.
After creating the storm engulfing the country, the university’s Academic Council also issued an ‘open letter’ defending its ‘modern, liberal and non-denominational’ character. The letter while highlighting the names of a number of ‘secular’ leaders behind the foundation of this institution also claims “we were in the forefront of the national movement wholeheartedly, and opposed the pernicious two-nation theory.”
Whether Jamia Milia was in forefront or rear front of the national movement is not an issue of present debate. The issue is - what prompted this central funded educational institution to provide legal support to arrested terror suspects in Delhi blast case and to join with the Islamists on the issue of terrorism? As a ‘forefront participant’ of the national movement, the academics of the university were supposed to instill confidence among the restive Muslims of the country in general and Jamia Nagar in particular in the legal system of the country. Since the university played the same politics as Aligarh had played during pre-partition Pakistan Movement people of the country has no reason to disbelieve that both the universalities are birds of the same feathers.
The whole episode is apparently a reminder to the Muslim unrest during the first decade of twentieth century. On 1st October 1906 a 35-member delegation of Muslim Indians, which included nobles, aristocracies, legal professionals and other elite section in the community mostly associated with the Aligarh movement gathered at Simla under the leadership of Aga Khan and presented an address to Lord Minto. They demanded proportionate representation of Muslims in government jobs, appointment of Muslim judges in High Courts and members in Viceroy’s council, etc. However, after failing to obtain any positive commitment from the Viceroy, they organized the All India Mohammedan Educational Conference at Dacca (27-30 December 1906) which worked as a catalyst for foundation of All India Muslim League which subsequently succeeded in partition of the sub-continent on the basis of religion.
Calling for introspection and self-assessment some of the community leaders have expressed full faith in the security establishment and have favoured co-operation to the police in nabbing terror suspects. Salim Khan, a cinema-script writer and father of actor Salman Khan has even sent a sealed envelop containing condolence message with a cheque of an undisclosed amount to the family of police inspector Sharma. Arif Mohammad Khan, a hero of Shahbano case has suggested fighting the terrorists ideologically. He said, “Terrorism itself can be fought only by challenging it on the level of ideology and thought. It cannot be curbed only by police action” (Pioneer dated 11 October, 2008). Quoting a number of verses from Quran, he has tried to counter the terrorists’ concept of Quran. However, his voice to challenge the Islamist terrorists ideologically will hardly convince the controller of the foot soldiers in the community as they are not prepared to be quiet till the country comes under Islamic rule. Ironically, liberal theologian like Maulana Wahiduddin Khan an internationally known Islamic scholar who is known for his commitment to a complete ideology of peace and quiet competent to challenge the Islamists was not invited to the meeting organized by the Coordination Committee of Indian Muslims.
The combined politics of the ‘Muslim Indians’ and their priestly class have all along been the historical reality of the sub-continent. Conforming a saying - “wheresoever the carcass, there the Vultures will be gathered together”, the Muslim vote baiting political hawks behaving like street urchins spitting at Sun also joined the issue and supported the demand of the Muslims for judicial enquiry against the encounter. Their presumption on the innocence of the arrested terror accused from Jamia Milia without any supportive evidence suggest that the oft repeated Muslim communal politics in secular India by a combined force of Left-Castiest-Islamist alliance has once again become active to disturb the social harmony in the country. Instead of fighting the menace of terrorism they are flowing sympathy for the terror accused. Such negative sparks ignited by them will only make the situation from bad to worse.
It is widely believed that the terrorists involved in the recent blasts across the country belong to one or another Islamist groups with an objective to restore the institution of Caliphate. The success of home the grown jihadists claiming themselves ‘Indian Mujahideens’in attracting some of the well-educated Muslims towards their cause has not only pushed the community into the similar predicament as prevailed after collapse of Muslim power, increased the sense of alienation among them which has a deep impact on their increasing communalized psyche.
The most unfortunate part of the scenario is the role of a significant section of ‘secular’ Indians particularly intelligentsia, journalists, writers and politicians like Amar Singh , Lalu Yadav, Ram Bilas Paswan, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Arundhati Roy whose tendency to run down the image of the country has not only adversely affected the consciousness of saner section of people but has also led to aggravate the communalized psyche of Indian society as a whole. The prevailing Muslim unrest is therefore, a dangerous sign as far as the internal security of the country is concerned. If the people of the country in general and ruling class in particular are not taking lessons from the historical wrongs committed by Indians who brought defeat and dishonour to the nation either to save their throne or skin or self-seeking political interest we are bound to fail.
(The author can be reached at e-mail ramashray60@rediffmail.com)
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