B.RAMAN
Quoting US officials, the "New York Times" reported as follows on June 20,2008: " U.S. officials say Israel carried out a large militaryexercise this month that appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. More than 100 Israeli F-16and F-15 fighters took part in the maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week of June. The exercise appeared tobe an effort to focus on long-range strikes and illustrates the seriousness with which Israel views Iran's nuclear program. Israeli officialswould not discuss the exercise. A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces would say only that the country's air force "regularly trains forvarious missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel." . A Pentagon official, who was briefed onthe exercise, said one goal was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclearinstallations and long-range conventional missiles. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a second goal was to send aclear message that Israel was prepared to act militarily if other efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium fail. "They wantedus to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official said. "There's a lot ofsignaling going on at different levels." Several U.S. officials said they did not believe Israel had decided to attack Iran or think such a strikewas imminent."
2. This could be part of a Psywar tactics jointly mounted by Israel and the US to make Iran co-operate with the efforts of the internationalcommunity to denuclearise its military capability without damaging its capability for civilian nuclear development.
3. Iran has been playing its own psychological game by sticking to its refusal to suspend the enrichment of uranium at its facility in Natanzwhile at the same time giving the impression of being willing to continue its talks on the subject with its Western interlocutors.
4. In this game, time is important in different senses for Israel and Iran. Understandably, Israel is getting impatient because, in its view,much time has already been wasted in pointless negotiations with Iran. This has enabled Iran to commission its uranium enrichment facility.It is now trying to expand the capacity of Natanz by installing more centrifuges for enrichment. The more the centrifuges and the richer thelevel and quantity of enrichment, the greater the danger of environmental damage if the Israeli Air Force strikes at it. If the environmentaldamage affects the health of the people of neighbouring Arab countries, local public opinion could further turn against the US and Israel.
5. In Iraq in the early 1980s and in Syria last year, Israel struck at nuclear facilities under construction. There was no such danger. Israelimilitary and intelligence experts must be telling their policy-makers that they have already delayed action too long and that they should atleast now strike at Iranian sites when they might still be able to prevent adverse effects on Iran's neighbours.
6. There is another reason why Israel cannot afford to waste more time. If they strike when Mr.George Bush is still in office---particularlybefore the Presidential elections in November--- Mr.Bush might hold the ring for them and see that the international community does not fallupon Israel. If they wait till next year, they may not be able to count on similar support from the next President---whether it is Mr.BarrackObama or Mr.John McCain. The next President will take at least six months from his inauguration in January to work out a coherent policyon Iran.
7. Apart from the risk of environmental damage, Israel will face another danger the like of which it did not face from Iraq or Syria. Iran is astrong military power with a capability to strike back at Israel through its Air Force and missiles. Moreover, Iran is a more ruthless powerthan Iraq or Syria. It may not hesitate to itself carry out or to have carried out through a surrogate an attack on the Strait of Hormuz in orderto block the flow of oil at a time when the economies of many countries, including India, are facing serious difficulties due to thesky-rocketing oil prices caused partly by normal market speculation and partly by nervousness over the possibility of an Israeli strike onIran. Israel would also face the danger of a retaliation by Hizbollah from its bases in the Lebanon.
8. Israel will have the following options:one, strike only at the nuclear sites and wait to see what is Iran's response in the hope of being ableto counter that response. Second, neutralise initially Iran's air and missile capabilities and then hit at its nuclear sites. Third, neutralisesimulataneously Iran's nuclear, air and missile capabilities.
9. The ideal time for an Israeli strike, if it decides to strike, will be between now and before the presidential election campaign picks upmomentum in the US. Once the US is in the midst of the campaign, the flexibility of response now available to the Bush administrationmight be reduced. An ideal time could be in August when the world attention will be on the Beijing Olympics with little attention paid to Iran.
10.Time is equally important for Iran because if it succeeds in preventing action by the US or Israel or both till January, the possibility of action might get reduced once a new President is in position----particularly if that President happens to be Mr.Obama. He is a very engagingand electrifying personality, but does not appear to have a stomach for strong action either against Iran or Pakistan or Al Qaeda or theTaliban or the Hizbollah. He may turn out to be another Jimmy Carter---lovable, but nothing more.
11. The two potential candidates are now working out their policy options before the campaign starts officially. One notices that both thecamps are talking in terms of policy responses in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and against Al Qaeda and the its associates as if each couldbe dealt with separately. They don't see a connecting thread. Instead, the debate should be on policy options available in response to twothreats which would confront the international community in the short and medium terms. These are, firstly, Iran's use of Hizbollah and theShia militant groups in Iraq to achieve its strategic purposes in the region and the dangers arising from its nuclear capability and thepossibility of the transfer of this capability to the Hizbollah. Secondly, Pakistan's use of Al Qaeda and the Pashtun Taliban to achieve itsstrategic objectives in Afghanistan and the Punjabi Taliban to achieve its strategic objective relating to Kashmir against India and thedangers arising from the possibility of these terrorist groups gaining access to Pakistan's nuclear expertise.
12. Everybody talks only of the dangers of Al Qaeda and its Pashtun and Punjabi associates getting hold of Pakistan's nuclear expertise.Nobody talks of the danger of the Hizbollah and the Shia terrorist groups of Iraq getting hold of Iran's nuclear expertise.
13. Whether what is going on presently is only a Psywar or whether there is a real possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive action, the effect onthe oil market will be the same---push up prices further. Oil prices are unlikely to come down till the present crisis over Iran's nuclearintentions is resolved in a manner, which reduces the concerns of Israel. India will suffer more from the surging oil prices than Chinabecause after 9/11, China has built up its strategic oil reserves. India has done very little in this direction. Our economy, which is alreadyconsiderably behind the Chinese economy, will lag further behind. (21-6-08)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Friday, June 20, 2008
MY TWO BOOKS ON INTELLIGENCE: THROUGH CIA"S EYES
B.RAMAN
I found the following reviews in the web site of the library of the US Central Intelligence Agency at https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-52-no-1/the-intelligence-officer2019s-bookshelf.html
Intelligence Services AbroadB. Raman, The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane (New Delhi: Lancer Publishers, 2007), 294 pp., index.
———, Intelligence: Past, Present and Future (New Delhi: Lancer Publishers, 2002), 416 pp., bibliography, index.
K. Sankaran Nair, Inside IB and RAW: The Rolling Stone that Gathered Moss (New Delhi, Manus Publications, 2008), index.
History has always been important to retired Indian intelligence officer B. Raman. In Kaoboys of R&AW, citing the CIA “historical division”precedent, (27) he reveals that in 1983 Rameshwar Nath Kao, the first chief of India’s foreign intelligence service—the Research & AnalysisWing—established a historical section. Unfortunately, it was abolished in 1984 when Kao left office. Raman was not surprised; he knew thatin India organizational change often followed new leadership. Raman had joined the Indian Police Service in 1961 and was transferred in1967 to the External Division of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), then India’s foreign intelligence element. He became a Kaoboy when R&AW wasestablished as an independent entity in 1968. After assignments in Paris and Geneva, he headed the Counter-Terrorism Division from 1988to 1994 and then retired to accept a cabinet secretariat position, where he served on various antiterrorism commissions and testified twicebefore the US Congress. After his permanent retirement, citing the precedents set by retired CIA officers, he decided to write thesememoirs.
Kaoboys of R&AW tells about India’s struggle to develop a full range of intelligence service capabilities while at war with Pakistan and Chinaand while managing conflicts among religious factions and dealing with tribal disputes on its borders. Raman also examines charges of CIAdisinformation campaigns and covert action operations against India, R&AW efforts to counter domestic and foreign terrorist acts, and theconstant turf battles with the Indian domestic intelligence service, the IB.
The book has two central themes. The first is the relationship of R&AW to the prime ministers under which it served, and the problemscreated when two of them were assassinated. Those unfamiliar with India get a sense of its political history. The second theme is thepervasive threat to national security from Pakistan and separatist groups as well as the actions taken to deal with provocations andincidents. Raman does not provide operational detail in terms of tradecraft or case studies. There is a chapter on R&AW relations withforeign intelligence agencies that concentrates on high-level contacts with the CIA and French services. An example of the latter is a visitto the CIA by Kao where he is received positively by DCI George Bush. He views the relationship with the CIA as a mix of cooperation wheninterests coincide and the reality of the operational imperative. As an example of the latter, he mentions instances in which the CIArecruited two R&AW officers. He does not mention the reverse possibility.
Kaoboys of R&AW gives a good high-level overview of the formation, evolution, and current status of the Indian intelligence services.
In his earlier book, Intelligence, Raman presents a survey of Indian intelligence from colonial times, when the IB was created (he calls it the“world’s second oldest internal security agency”—the French being the first) (1)—to the present eight intelligence agencies that form India’sintelligence community. His approach is topical, covering all elements of modern intelligence—military, political, technical, collection,analysis, covert action, counterintelligence, oversight, and management of the intelligence process. For comparison, he often refers to theexperience of US intelligence agencies and the commissions formed to investigate them. For example, as a basis for establishing India’smilitary intelligence element, he cites in great detail the precedents of DIA’s formation and its evolution. (31–36) Similarly, the NSA, NRO,NGA and related agencies provide the rationale for counterparts in India. When discussing the requirement for good counterintelligence,examples from the UK are cited and the Aldrich Ames case is analyzed as an exemplar of what should and should not be done.
In short, Raman’s Intelligence is a text book by an experienced intelligence officer who certainly understands the fundamental elements ofthe profession and provides a framework for successful operations, not only in India, but in any democratic society.
K. Sankaran Nair’s Inside IB & RAW does not deserve the professional attention Raman’s books have received. Although the dust jacketclaims Nair served as a head of R&AW, in fact, he held the post for less than 3 months in the 1970s.(174) He spent more time in the IB, andthe book has some interesting stories about his attempts in the 1960s to advise recently formed African nations about security services.Overall, though, he provides little beyond anecdotal “scribblings”(95) focusing on personal episodes and dealings with his superiors that areof no great intelligence value. It is a memoir covering his entire life, and while it no doubt recounts some impressive politicalaccomplishments, it is primarily of local interest and a minor contribution to the intelligence literature.
I found the following reviews in the web site of the library of the US Central Intelligence Agency at https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-52-no-1/the-intelligence-officer2019s-bookshelf.html
Intelligence Services AbroadB. Raman, The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane (New Delhi: Lancer Publishers, 2007), 294 pp., index.
———, Intelligence: Past, Present and Future (New Delhi: Lancer Publishers, 2002), 416 pp., bibliography, index.
K. Sankaran Nair, Inside IB and RAW: The Rolling Stone that Gathered Moss (New Delhi, Manus Publications, 2008), index.
History has always been important to retired Indian intelligence officer B. Raman. In Kaoboys of R&AW, citing the CIA “historical division”precedent, (27) he reveals that in 1983 Rameshwar Nath Kao, the first chief of India’s foreign intelligence service—the Research & AnalysisWing—established a historical section. Unfortunately, it was abolished in 1984 when Kao left office. Raman was not surprised; he knew thatin India organizational change often followed new leadership. Raman had joined the Indian Police Service in 1961 and was transferred in1967 to the External Division of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), then India’s foreign intelligence element. He became a Kaoboy when R&AW wasestablished as an independent entity in 1968. After assignments in Paris and Geneva, he headed the Counter-Terrorism Division from 1988to 1994 and then retired to accept a cabinet secretariat position, where he served on various antiterrorism commissions and testified twicebefore the US Congress. After his permanent retirement, citing the precedents set by retired CIA officers, he decided to write thesememoirs.
Kaoboys of R&AW tells about India’s struggle to develop a full range of intelligence service capabilities while at war with Pakistan and Chinaand while managing conflicts among religious factions and dealing with tribal disputes on its borders. Raman also examines charges of CIAdisinformation campaigns and covert action operations against India, R&AW efforts to counter domestic and foreign terrorist acts, and theconstant turf battles with the Indian domestic intelligence service, the IB.
The book has two central themes. The first is the relationship of R&AW to the prime ministers under which it served, and the problemscreated when two of them were assassinated. Those unfamiliar with India get a sense of its political history. The second theme is thepervasive threat to national security from Pakistan and separatist groups as well as the actions taken to deal with provocations andincidents. Raman does not provide operational detail in terms of tradecraft or case studies. There is a chapter on R&AW relations withforeign intelligence agencies that concentrates on high-level contacts with the CIA and French services. An example of the latter is a visitto the CIA by Kao where he is received positively by DCI George Bush. He views the relationship with the CIA as a mix of cooperation wheninterests coincide and the reality of the operational imperative. As an example of the latter, he mentions instances in which the CIArecruited two R&AW officers. He does not mention the reverse possibility.
Kaoboys of R&AW gives a good high-level overview of the formation, evolution, and current status of the Indian intelligence services.
In his earlier book, Intelligence, Raman presents a survey of Indian intelligence from colonial times, when the IB was created (he calls it the“world’s second oldest internal security agency”—the French being the first) (1)—to the present eight intelligence agencies that form India’sintelligence community. His approach is topical, covering all elements of modern intelligence—military, political, technical, collection,analysis, covert action, counterintelligence, oversight, and management of the intelligence process. For comparison, he often refers to theexperience of US intelligence agencies and the commissions formed to investigate them. For example, as a basis for establishing India’smilitary intelligence element, he cites in great detail the precedents of DIA’s formation and its evolution. (31–36) Similarly, the NSA, NRO,NGA and related agencies provide the rationale for counterparts in India. When discussing the requirement for good counterintelligence,examples from the UK are cited and the Aldrich Ames case is analyzed as an exemplar of what should and should not be done.
In short, Raman’s Intelligence is a text book by an experienced intelligence officer who certainly understands the fundamental elements ofthe profession and provides a framework for successful operations, not only in India, but in any democratic society.
K. Sankaran Nair’s Inside IB & RAW does not deserve the professional attention Raman’s books have received. Although the dust jacketclaims Nair served as a head of R&AW, in fact, he held the post for less than 3 months in the 1970s.(174) He spent more time in the IB, andthe book has some interesting stories about his attempts in the 1960s to advise recently formed African nations about security services.Overall, though, he provides little beyond anecdotal “scribblings”(95) focusing on personal episodes and dealings with his superiors that areof no great intelligence value. It is a memoir covering his entire life, and while it no doubt recounts some impressive politicalaccomplishments, it is primarily of local interest and a minor contribution to the intelligence literature.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
SHRI N.RAM, THE TOAST OF CHINA
B.RAMAN
Shri N.Ram, the well-known Editor-in-Chief of "The Hindu" of Chennai, has been the toast of China for an article purported to have beenwritten by him refuting the allegations levelled by the Dalai Lama and his supporters regarding the events of March in Lhasa . The Chineseauthorities have been gratified by what they see as his vigorous articulation of the version of the events as put out by them.
2. A report on Shri Ram's article disseminated by the State-owned Hsinhua news agency of China is annexed. It is learnt that this has beentranslated into the Tibetan and Uighur languages and copies distributed in all the monasteries and educational institutions in theTibetan-inhabited areas of China. It has also been made required reading in the patriotic re-education classess for Tibetans being organisedby the Chinese authorities.In the meanwhile, the Chinese authorities have reduced the duration of the stay of the Olympic Torch in Tibetfrom three to one day. The torch will be in Lhasa on June 21 instead of June 19.
3. The dissemination of Shri Ram's article is unlikely to have any impact on the Tibetans and Uighurs. Nor will it have much of an impact oninternational opinion on the recent events in Tibet because Shri Ram's policy of "see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil" with regard toChina is well known right across the world.His popularity in China is confined to the Chinese ruling circles.
4.After writing this article, I showed this to a number of Indian friends. While a majority agreed that this deserved to be written anddisseminated, some asked why do this since it could reflect on the credibility of a great institution of Chennai.
5. After carefully considering their advice, I concluded that this needed to be written in the interest of the Indian people and the lovablepeople of Tibet. It will be moral cowardice to remain silent when the Editor of a highly respected paper of Chennai uses his access to itscolumns to demonise the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans just as Beijing is in the habit of doing.
6. As you move around Chennai, you see thousands of advertisements inviting you to buy "The Hindu". When you see those advertisements,think of Shri Ram and his writings in support of the Chinese and in demonisation of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans and ask yourself thequestion:" Does such a newspaper deserve my continued support?". The choice is yours. Fortunately, despite Shri Ram and his ilk, India isnot China. We have a wide choice and we are not captive readers of Hsinhua. We don't have to worry that if we stop buying and reading"The Hindu", we may end in patriotic re-education classes.(18-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi . E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
(The report disseminated by Hsinhua on June 18,2008)
Senior Indian journalist unmasks separatist Dalai clique
June 18, 2008
Reports in western media on the March 14 riots in China's Tibet autonomous region were "false" and "manipulated," and the Dalai Lama is a"consummate politician" and "separatist political figure," says N. Ram, editor-in-chief of Indian daily The Hindu, in a recently publishedarticle.
A notable feature of recent Western media coverage of Tibet is "the way journalism feeds off the disinformation campaign" unleashed by theDalai clique and the supporters of "Tibet independence," Ram says in the article.
Under the guise of responsible news reporting, those media published "the most exaggerated and fanciful accounts of events by pleadinglack of onsite access," Ram say, terming it "news-speak for 'anything goes' for journalists on the other side of the ideological-politicalfence."
These practices are free from all rules of responsible and transparent sourcing and verification prescribed by codes of good journalisticpractice, and innumerable books on journalistic ethics.
Under the banner of "human rights" and "freedom," various Western newspapers, news websites, news agencies, and television stations glorified the riots and disturbances, he says.
The reality is that the riots that broke out in Lhasa on March 14 and claimed the lives of 18 innocent civilians and a police officer, and left382 people injured, including 241 police officers, were the handiwork of violent mobs, Ram points out.
"As the evidence on the nature of the riots has piled up, the realization has dawned that it was too much to expect any legitimategovernment of a major country to turn the other cheek to such savagery and such a breakdown of public order," he says.
Ground reality contradicts the Dalai Lama's charge of "cultural genocide" against China, says Ram.
Tibet has 1,700 monasteries and other Buddhist religious sites housing 46,000 monks and nuns, four mosques for 3,000 Muslims, and aCatholic church for its 700 Christians.
Further, the entire world has been witness to the efforts made by the Chinese government to protect the Potala Palace and other pricelessheritage sites in the autonomous region.
The Tibetan language is flourishing, traditional Tibetan medicine is undergoing a renaissance and enjoys international cultstatus, and thestrength and vitality of age-old tradition are observed in the daily lives of the Tibetan people, the senior journalist says.
A fair, objective, and balanced assessment, according to Ram, makes it absolutely clear that many developing and developed nations havedone far worse by their ethnic minorities than China has done by the Tibetans.
The author found that a major focus of the propaganda campaign by the Dalai Lama, the remnants of his theocratic establishment, and hissupporters abroad is the "democratic" character of "Tibet in exile."
"This is a bit rich coming from the spiritual and temporal head of feudal serfdom," says Ram.
"In fact, the 14th Dalai Lama is a consummate politician leading a movement that seeks to take 'Greater Tibet' away from the motherland -an anti-communist and separatist political figure, with external links," he says. "The Dalai Lama's track record bears out this assessment."
The author also mentions that in his major pronouncements, the Dalai Lama has proclaimed that "Tibet has been an independent nationfrom ancient times," that it has been a strategic "buffer state" in the heart of Asia guaranteeing the region's stability, and that it has never"conceded" its "sovereignty" to China.
His demand for the reconstitution of a "Greater Tibet" is indeed "a revival of the infamous British attempt in the early 20th century toconstitute two zones, 'Outer Tibet' and 'Inner Tibet'," which aims to weaken China's sovereignty over both zones, Ram says in his article.
However, the kind of autonomy that the Dalai Lama demands "cannot possibly be accommodated within the Chinese Constitution," he notes.
"Acceptance of the demand for 'Greater Tibet' means breaking up the provinces of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, and Yunnan, doing ethnicre-engineering, if not 'cleansing', and causing enormous destabilization and damage to China's development and human rights," Ram pointsout.
Source: Xinhua
Shri N.Ram, the well-known Editor-in-Chief of "The Hindu" of Chennai, has been the toast of China for an article purported to have beenwritten by him refuting the allegations levelled by the Dalai Lama and his supporters regarding the events of March in Lhasa . The Chineseauthorities have been gratified by what they see as his vigorous articulation of the version of the events as put out by them.
2. A report on Shri Ram's article disseminated by the State-owned Hsinhua news agency of China is annexed. It is learnt that this has beentranslated into the Tibetan and Uighur languages and copies distributed in all the monasteries and educational institutions in theTibetan-inhabited areas of China. It has also been made required reading in the patriotic re-education classess for Tibetans being organisedby the Chinese authorities.In the meanwhile, the Chinese authorities have reduced the duration of the stay of the Olympic Torch in Tibetfrom three to one day. The torch will be in Lhasa on June 21 instead of June 19.
3. The dissemination of Shri Ram's article is unlikely to have any impact on the Tibetans and Uighurs. Nor will it have much of an impact oninternational opinion on the recent events in Tibet because Shri Ram's policy of "see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil" with regard toChina is well known right across the world.His popularity in China is confined to the Chinese ruling circles.
4.After writing this article, I showed this to a number of Indian friends. While a majority agreed that this deserved to be written anddisseminated, some asked why do this since it could reflect on the credibility of a great institution of Chennai.
5. After carefully considering their advice, I concluded that this needed to be written in the interest of the Indian people and the lovablepeople of Tibet. It will be moral cowardice to remain silent when the Editor of a highly respected paper of Chennai uses his access to itscolumns to demonise the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans just as Beijing is in the habit of doing.
6. As you move around Chennai, you see thousands of advertisements inviting you to buy "The Hindu". When you see those advertisements,think of Shri Ram and his writings in support of the Chinese and in demonisation of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans and ask yourself thequestion:" Does such a newspaper deserve my continued support?". The choice is yours. Fortunately, despite Shri Ram and his ilk, India isnot China. We have a wide choice and we are not captive readers of Hsinhua. We don't have to worry that if we stop buying and reading"The Hindu", we may end in patriotic re-education classes.(18-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi . E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
(The report disseminated by Hsinhua on June 18,2008)
Senior Indian journalist unmasks separatist Dalai clique
June 18, 2008
Reports in western media on the March 14 riots in China's Tibet autonomous region were "false" and "manipulated," and the Dalai Lama is a"consummate politician" and "separatist political figure," says N. Ram, editor-in-chief of Indian daily The Hindu, in a recently publishedarticle.
A notable feature of recent Western media coverage of Tibet is "the way journalism feeds off the disinformation campaign" unleashed by theDalai clique and the supporters of "Tibet independence," Ram says in the article.
Under the guise of responsible news reporting, those media published "the most exaggerated and fanciful accounts of events by pleadinglack of onsite access," Ram say, terming it "news-speak for 'anything goes' for journalists on the other side of the ideological-politicalfence."
These practices are free from all rules of responsible and transparent sourcing and verification prescribed by codes of good journalisticpractice, and innumerable books on journalistic ethics.
Under the banner of "human rights" and "freedom," various Western newspapers, news websites, news agencies, and television stations glorified the riots and disturbances, he says.
The reality is that the riots that broke out in Lhasa on March 14 and claimed the lives of 18 innocent civilians and a police officer, and left382 people injured, including 241 police officers, were the handiwork of violent mobs, Ram points out.
"As the evidence on the nature of the riots has piled up, the realization has dawned that it was too much to expect any legitimategovernment of a major country to turn the other cheek to such savagery and such a breakdown of public order," he says.
Ground reality contradicts the Dalai Lama's charge of "cultural genocide" against China, says Ram.
Tibet has 1,700 monasteries and other Buddhist religious sites housing 46,000 monks and nuns, four mosques for 3,000 Muslims, and aCatholic church for its 700 Christians.
Further, the entire world has been witness to the efforts made by the Chinese government to protect the Potala Palace and other pricelessheritage sites in the autonomous region.
The Tibetan language is flourishing, traditional Tibetan medicine is undergoing a renaissance and enjoys international cultstatus, and thestrength and vitality of age-old tradition are observed in the daily lives of the Tibetan people, the senior journalist says.
A fair, objective, and balanced assessment, according to Ram, makes it absolutely clear that many developing and developed nations havedone far worse by their ethnic minorities than China has done by the Tibetans.
The author found that a major focus of the propaganda campaign by the Dalai Lama, the remnants of his theocratic establishment, and hissupporters abroad is the "democratic" character of "Tibet in exile."
"This is a bit rich coming from the spiritual and temporal head of feudal serfdom," says Ram.
"In fact, the 14th Dalai Lama is a consummate politician leading a movement that seeks to take 'Greater Tibet' away from the motherland -an anti-communist and separatist political figure, with external links," he says. "The Dalai Lama's track record bears out this assessment."
The author also mentions that in his major pronouncements, the Dalai Lama has proclaimed that "Tibet has been an independent nationfrom ancient times," that it has been a strategic "buffer state" in the heart of Asia guaranteeing the region's stability, and that it has never"conceded" its "sovereignty" to China.
His demand for the reconstitution of a "Greater Tibet" is indeed "a revival of the infamous British attempt in the early 20th century toconstitute two zones, 'Outer Tibet' and 'Inner Tibet'," which aims to weaken China's sovereignty over both zones, Ram says in his article.
However, the kind of autonomy that the Dalai Lama demands "cannot possibly be accommodated within the Chinese Constitution," he notes.
"Acceptance of the demand for 'Greater Tibet' means breaking up the provinces of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, and Yunnan, doing ethnicre-engineering, if not 'cleansing', and causing enormous destabilization and damage to China's development and human rights," Ram pointsout.
Source: Xinhua
Monday, June 16, 2008
FRESH PROTESTS IN TIBETAN AREAS OF CHINA
B.RAMAN
Unless the Chinese authorities have modified the route of the Olympic torch, which is being taken across China, it should be in the Tibetan inhabited areas of China later this week. According to the original programme, it is to reach Lhasa around June 19,2008.
2. As a mark of respect to the memory of the nearly 70,000 people who were killed in the huge earthquake in the Sichuan province on May12,2008, the passage of the torch has been marked by solemnity to underline the unity of China without any gaiety.
3. There has been a realisation by the international community that because of the huge tragedy caused by the quake, it would beinappropriate for the Tibetans to organise another flare-up similar to what had taken place in the Tibetan-inhabited areas in March,2008.The Dalai Lama's recent visits to Germany and the UK after the March uprising and his current visit to Australia have been marked by adowngrading of the importance accorded to his visit by the host governments.
4. In Germany, no meeting with any important leader of the Government was organised. In the UK, he did meet Prime Minister Mr.GordonBrown, but in the house of the Archbishop of Canterbury and not in the Prime Minister's office in No. 10, Downing Street. Mr.Brown met him inhis capacity as an important Buddhist leader to discuss the human rights of the Buddhists in Tibet and not as an important political leader ofTibet to discuss the future of Tibet. Mr.Kevin Rudd, the Australian Prime Minister, has been on a visit to Japan and, in his absence, HisHoliness reportedly met his No.2 in the Cabinet.
5. Through well-organised public protests all over China against the disturbances by Tibetans and their supporters during the passage ofthe Olympic torch though London,Paris and San Francisco and also in other countries such as Australia and Japan, and calls for theboycott of Western---particularly French ---goods, Bejing was able to subtly convey to the West that it is likely to be economically hurt if theBeijing Olympics were sought to be exploited for humiliating China.
6.Western corporate houses, which have invested heavily in China and in the Olympics too as sponsors, mounted pressure on theirGovernments to cool it and refrain from humiliating China. The French climb-down after the largely-attended demonstrations against theCarrefour, the French supermarket chain, was particularly striking. The French leaders are no longer calling for a boycott of the Games.They have even admitted that the conditions imposed by Beijing for a resumption of the dialogue with the Dalai Lama on the future of Tibetare reasonable.
7. The flare-up in the Tibetan areas came at a time when US exports to China have started going up and China has emerged as the thirdlargest destination for American exports after Canada and Mexico. This week, a bi-annual Sino-US conference is being held in the US onstrengthening the strategic economic partnership with China. At a time, when India has been focussing on strengthening its strategicpolitical and military relationship with the US, China has been concentrating on strengthening its strategic economic relationship with theUS and the economic inter-dependence between the two countries. This idea finds much support in the community of the US corporatehouses.
8. By using its economic muscle skillfully, Beijing has succeeded in having the human rights campaign on the eve of the Olympics toneddown. The support for the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans has not been as vociferous as it was before March. The US-funded Radio Free Asia,which had stepped up its broadcasts in the Tibetan and Uighur languages after March, has since toned them down---particularly after thequake. The campaign against China on the Darfur issue is also on a low key now.
9. The Dalai Lama himself seems to understand that any major violent uprising in the Tibetan-inhabited areas during the passage of theOlympic Torch could prove counter-productive. He has reportedly urged his supporters to avoid any violent protests.
10. As a sop to His Holiness, the Chinese have kept open the possibility of another round of talks with the representatives of His Holiness inJuly if there are no disturbances during the passage of the torch. They have also toned down their campaign of demonisation of HisHoliness.
11. At the same time, the preoccupation of the Chinese Army with quake relief in the Sichuan Province has not come in the way of its driveto identify, arrest and jail all those who are suspected to be sympathisers of the Dalai Lama. While the rhetoric has been toned down, theaction against Tibetans suspected of supporting the Dalai Lama continues as vigorously as before. Sixteen Tibetan monks have beenarrested and prosecuted on charges of attempting to cause explosions in March in an apparent attempt to project them as terrorists.
12. Such actions are once again showing signs of added anger against Beijing. After a near lull of about two months, reports of freshincidents have again started coming in. In the latest incidents, it is Tibetan women and nuns who have been in the forefront. Five Tibetanwomen staged a public protest in the Ganzi area of the Sichuan province on June 11,2008. They were arrested and allegedly beaten up. This led to a protest march by about 300 nuns on June 14,2008. The situation in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China is again becoming sensitive.(16-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Unless the Chinese authorities have modified the route of the Olympic torch, which is being taken across China, it should be in the Tibetan inhabited areas of China later this week. According to the original programme, it is to reach Lhasa around June 19,2008.
2. As a mark of respect to the memory of the nearly 70,000 people who were killed in the huge earthquake in the Sichuan province on May12,2008, the passage of the torch has been marked by solemnity to underline the unity of China without any gaiety.
3. There has been a realisation by the international community that because of the huge tragedy caused by the quake, it would beinappropriate for the Tibetans to organise another flare-up similar to what had taken place in the Tibetan-inhabited areas in March,2008.The Dalai Lama's recent visits to Germany and the UK after the March uprising and his current visit to Australia have been marked by adowngrading of the importance accorded to his visit by the host governments.
4. In Germany, no meeting with any important leader of the Government was organised. In the UK, he did meet Prime Minister Mr.GordonBrown, but in the house of the Archbishop of Canterbury and not in the Prime Minister's office in No. 10, Downing Street. Mr.Brown met him inhis capacity as an important Buddhist leader to discuss the human rights of the Buddhists in Tibet and not as an important political leader ofTibet to discuss the future of Tibet. Mr.Kevin Rudd, the Australian Prime Minister, has been on a visit to Japan and, in his absence, HisHoliness reportedly met his No.2 in the Cabinet.
5. Through well-organised public protests all over China against the disturbances by Tibetans and their supporters during the passage ofthe Olympic torch though London,Paris and San Francisco and also in other countries such as Australia and Japan, and calls for theboycott of Western---particularly French ---goods, Bejing was able to subtly convey to the West that it is likely to be economically hurt if theBeijing Olympics were sought to be exploited for humiliating China.
6.Western corporate houses, which have invested heavily in China and in the Olympics too as sponsors, mounted pressure on theirGovernments to cool it and refrain from humiliating China. The French climb-down after the largely-attended demonstrations against theCarrefour, the French supermarket chain, was particularly striking. The French leaders are no longer calling for a boycott of the Games.They have even admitted that the conditions imposed by Beijing for a resumption of the dialogue with the Dalai Lama on the future of Tibetare reasonable.
7. The flare-up in the Tibetan areas came at a time when US exports to China have started going up and China has emerged as the thirdlargest destination for American exports after Canada and Mexico. This week, a bi-annual Sino-US conference is being held in the US onstrengthening the strategic economic partnership with China. At a time, when India has been focussing on strengthening its strategicpolitical and military relationship with the US, China has been concentrating on strengthening its strategic economic relationship with theUS and the economic inter-dependence between the two countries. This idea finds much support in the community of the US corporatehouses.
8. By using its economic muscle skillfully, Beijing has succeeded in having the human rights campaign on the eve of the Olympics toneddown. The support for the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans has not been as vociferous as it was before March. The US-funded Radio Free Asia,which had stepped up its broadcasts in the Tibetan and Uighur languages after March, has since toned them down---particularly after thequake. The campaign against China on the Darfur issue is also on a low key now.
9. The Dalai Lama himself seems to understand that any major violent uprising in the Tibetan-inhabited areas during the passage of theOlympic Torch could prove counter-productive. He has reportedly urged his supporters to avoid any violent protests.
10. As a sop to His Holiness, the Chinese have kept open the possibility of another round of talks with the representatives of His Holiness inJuly if there are no disturbances during the passage of the torch. They have also toned down their campaign of demonisation of HisHoliness.
11. At the same time, the preoccupation of the Chinese Army with quake relief in the Sichuan Province has not come in the way of its driveto identify, arrest and jail all those who are suspected to be sympathisers of the Dalai Lama. While the rhetoric has been toned down, theaction against Tibetans suspected of supporting the Dalai Lama continues as vigorously as before. Sixteen Tibetan monks have beenarrested and prosecuted on charges of attempting to cause explosions in March in an apparent attempt to project them as terrorists.
12. Such actions are once again showing signs of added anger against Beijing. After a near lull of about two months, reports of freshincidents have again started coming in. In the latest incidents, it is Tibetan women and nuns who have been in the forefront. Five Tibetanwomen staged a public protest in the Ganzi area of the Sichuan province on June 11,2008. They were arrested and allegedly beaten up. This led to a protest march by about 300 nuns on June 14,2008. The situation in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China is again becoming sensitive.(16-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, June 8, 2008
SICHUAN AFTER THE QUAKE: KEEPING THE FINGERS CROSSED
B.RAMAN
The after-shocks after the earth quake, which struck the Wenchuan area of the Sichuan province of China on May 12,2008, and killed an estimated 70,000 people, have decreased in frequency, but the area still faces another major disaster in the form of massive floods if some of the so-called quake lakes formed as a result of the quake burst under the pressure of the accumulated water. The biggest of these quake lakes is the one at Tangjiashan, which has been causing concern to the Chinese authorities.
2. If it bursts, it could put in jeopardy the lives and livelihood of nearly a million Chinese living in the direction in which floods will flow and further damage the economy of a strategically important province of China. Sichuan is not only the granary of China, but is also rich in minerals. Many of China's nuclear and space establishments and defence industries are located in the province.
3.The Information Office of the State Council stated on June 8,2008, that China's industrial and mining sectors have lost an estimated $29.5 billion because of the quake. If there are floods now, the loss will increase further. According to figures released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 4,003 big companies have resumed production since the quake, but 1,482 enterprises are yet to do so. In case of floods, industrial production may receive a further set-back.
4.If the Tangjiashan quake lake bursts, two of Western China's strategically important railway line and oil pipeline may be washed away. The "People's Daily" reported on June 9,2008: "The lake is also posing a threat to the Fujiang river bridge on the Baoji-Chengdu Railway, a critical part of the railway network in west China. The swollen quake lake has put China's longest oil pipeline at risk. The pipeline, winding from Lanzhou via Chengdu to Chongqing, was 60 kilometers downstream from the lake. With a capacity of transferring six million tons of oil each year, the pipeline provides 70 per cent of product oil to Sichuan and neighboring Chongqing Municipality. If the line was cut, refined oil in storage could only supply Sichuan for three days, whereas repair work would take 30 days."
5. A large number of civilian and military engineers, under the personal supervision of Mr.Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister, have been camping in the area and trying to drain off water from the Tangjiashan lake through a sluice canal created by the engineers. Water in controlled measure has already started flowing out through the canal, but it has started raining in the area. As a result, it is reported that the inflow of water into the lake is more than the outflow.
6.Under the heading "Quake lake still poses big threat", the "China Daily News" carried the following warning on the morning of June 9,2008: " Water in the Tangjiashan quake lake in Sichuan province was rising Monday despite the increased outflow through a channel.Increasing the outflow of water is critical for the dam's safety.If the water flows too slowly, the inflow will increase the pressure on the dam. But again, too voluminous an outflow can erode the diversion channel and cause the dam to collapse.A moderate rainfall around 6:50 pm was followed by a 4.8 magnitude aftershock a minute later yesterday (June 8). The tremors that lasted 20 seconds caused massive landslides on the surrounding mountains."
7.Since the quake occurred, Prime Minister Wen, who has won high praise not only from the Chinese but also from international disaster relief experts for the way he has organised the disaster relief, has spent more time in the quake-hit areas than in Bejing---occasionally returning to Beijing for a few hours now and then to attend to other work. His decision to fly back to Sichuan to preside over an emergency meeting at the time of the visit (June 4 to 7) of Shri Pranab Mukherjee, the Indian Foreign Minister, to Beijing, is, therefore, totally understandable. It will be incorrect to interpret his cancellation of the proposed courtesy call by Shri Mukherjee on him as meant to be a snub to him for his strong statements before leaving for China reiterating that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India.
8. India has been sending relief material to Chengdu, the capital of the Sichuan province, by aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF). One of the aircraft reached Chengdu when Shri Mukherjee was in Beijing. He decided to fly to Chengdu, receive the material and personally hand it over to the Chinese authorities. This was a gesture not only to the Chinese people, but also to the Tibetans who live in large numbers in the quake-hit areas and have been affected by the quake. It is not known how many of the 70,000 people affected by the quake are Tibetans. The Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan are claimed by the Dalai Lama as part of his so-called Greater Tibet, a claim strongly rejected by the Chinese. Before the quake, there were violent anti-Beijing incidents in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan, but these have since stopped.
9. Sichuan has the largest concentration of Indian students----most of them studying medicine in the Sichuan University. They live mostly in Chengdu, which has not been affected by the quake. (9-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The after-shocks after the earth quake, which struck the Wenchuan area of the Sichuan province of China on May 12,2008, and killed an estimated 70,000 people, have decreased in frequency, but the area still faces another major disaster in the form of massive floods if some of the so-called quake lakes formed as a result of the quake burst under the pressure of the accumulated water. The biggest of these quake lakes is the one at Tangjiashan, which has been causing concern to the Chinese authorities.
2. If it bursts, it could put in jeopardy the lives and livelihood of nearly a million Chinese living in the direction in which floods will flow and further damage the economy of a strategically important province of China. Sichuan is not only the granary of China, but is also rich in minerals. Many of China's nuclear and space establishments and defence industries are located in the province.
3.The Information Office of the State Council stated on June 8,2008, that China's industrial and mining sectors have lost an estimated $29.5 billion because of the quake. If there are floods now, the loss will increase further. According to figures released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 4,003 big companies have resumed production since the quake, but 1,482 enterprises are yet to do so. In case of floods, industrial production may receive a further set-back.
4.If the Tangjiashan quake lake bursts, two of Western China's strategically important railway line and oil pipeline may be washed away. The "People's Daily" reported on June 9,2008: "The lake is also posing a threat to the Fujiang river bridge on the Baoji-Chengdu Railway, a critical part of the railway network in west China. The swollen quake lake has put China's longest oil pipeline at risk. The pipeline, winding from Lanzhou via Chengdu to Chongqing, was 60 kilometers downstream from the lake. With a capacity of transferring six million tons of oil each year, the pipeline provides 70 per cent of product oil to Sichuan and neighboring Chongqing Municipality. If the line was cut, refined oil in storage could only supply Sichuan for three days, whereas repair work would take 30 days."
5. A large number of civilian and military engineers, under the personal supervision of Mr.Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister, have been camping in the area and trying to drain off water from the Tangjiashan lake through a sluice canal created by the engineers. Water in controlled measure has already started flowing out through the canal, but it has started raining in the area. As a result, it is reported that the inflow of water into the lake is more than the outflow.
6.Under the heading "Quake lake still poses big threat", the "China Daily News" carried the following warning on the morning of June 9,2008: " Water in the Tangjiashan quake lake in Sichuan province was rising Monday despite the increased outflow through a channel.Increasing the outflow of water is critical for the dam's safety.If the water flows too slowly, the inflow will increase the pressure on the dam. But again, too voluminous an outflow can erode the diversion channel and cause the dam to collapse.A moderate rainfall around 6:50 pm was followed by a 4.8 magnitude aftershock a minute later yesterday (June 8). The tremors that lasted 20 seconds caused massive landslides on the surrounding mountains."
7.Since the quake occurred, Prime Minister Wen, who has won high praise not only from the Chinese but also from international disaster relief experts for the way he has organised the disaster relief, has spent more time in the quake-hit areas than in Bejing---occasionally returning to Beijing for a few hours now and then to attend to other work. His decision to fly back to Sichuan to preside over an emergency meeting at the time of the visit (June 4 to 7) of Shri Pranab Mukherjee, the Indian Foreign Minister, to Beijing, is, therefore, totally understandable. It will be incorrect to interpret his cancellation of the proposed courtesy call by Shri Mukherjee on him as meant to be a snub to him for his strong statements before leaving for China reiterating that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India.
8. India has been sending relief material to Chengdu, the capital of the Sichuan province, by aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF). One of the aircraft reached Chengdu when Shri Mukherjee was in Beijing. He decided to fly to Chengdu, receive the material and personally hand it over to the Chinese authorities. This was a gesture not only to the Chinese people, but also to the Tibetans who live in large numbers in the quake-hit areas and have been affected by the quake. It is not known how many of the 70,000 people affected by the quake are Tibetans. The Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan are claimed by the Dalai Lama as part of his so-called Greater Tibet, a claim strongly rejected by the Chinese. Before the quake, there were violent anti-Beijing incidents in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan, but these have since stopped.
9. Sichuan has the largest concentration of Indian students----most of them studying medicine in the Sichuan University. They live mostly in Chengdu, which has not been affected by the quake. (9-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, June 6, 2008
DID MUSHARRAF TELL NAWAZ ABOUT KARGIL PLANS?
B.RAMAN
Did President Pervez Musharraf, who was the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) under Mr.Nawaz Sharif when he was the Prime Minister before October 12,1999, inform Mr.Sharif about his plans to send the Army to occupy the Kargil heights? If not, why not? If so, when did he inform him? What was the reaction of Mr.Sharif? Did he concur with Musharraf's action or did he disaprove of his action? What is the truth?
2. These questions have assumed importance in the light of two interviews given by Lt.Gen.(retd)Jamshed Gulzar Kiani on June 2,2008, to the Geo TV and the "Dawn" of Karachi. Jamshed Gulzar Kiani was a Major-General in the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) at the time of the Kargil conflict and the subsequent coup against Mr.Sharif. The ISI was then headed by Lt.Gen.Ziauddin, a Kashmiri of Punjabi origin from the Engineer Corps. The differences between Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif initially developed shortly after the appointment of Musharraf by Nawaz Sharif as the COAS in October,1998.
3. These differences were due to Nawaz Sharif's over-ruling Musharraf's objections to the appointment of Ziauddin as the Director-General of the ISI. Ziauddin was a close confidante of Nawaz Sharif and kept him informed of all actions of Musharraf, who stopped inviting him to some of his meetings with the Corps Commanders.
4. Jamshed Gulzar Kiani ingratiated himself with Musharraf by keeping him informed of the activities of Ziauddin. A small coterie of Army officers headed by Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the then Chief of the General Staff (CGS), staged a coup when Musharraf was returning to Karachi from Colombo on October 12,1999, and had Nawaz Sharif arrested because he dismissed Musharraf and appointed Ziauddin as the COAS. They prevented Ziauddin from entering the office of the COAS. He was arrested subsequently.
5. A question often debated in senior circles of the Pakistan Army is whether this coterie would have behaved in this manner if Nawaz Sharif had appointed a Punjabi Lt.Gen.from a fighting formation instead of an engineer as the COAS. Those, who held this view, used to argue that the objection of this coterie was not to the dismissal of Musharraf, a Mohajir, who was disliked by many of the Punjabi officers, but to his appointment of Ziauddin as the COAS. It is difficult to know the truth.
6. A month after taking over power as the Chief Executive, Musharraf promoted Jamshed Gulzar Kiani as a Lt.Gen and appointed him a Corps Commander. The two were very close to each other. Musharraf greatly appreciated his action before October 12,1999, in keeping him informed of the activities of Ziauddin and his links with Nawaz Sharif.
7. When Jamshed Gulzar Kiani reached the age of superannuation in 2003, Musharraf rewarded his loyalty by appointing him as the Chairman of the Federal Public Services Commission, which post had a fixed tenure of five years under the law. Serious differences developed between the two when Kiani as the Chairman of the Commission did not do the bidding of Musharraf and Mr.Shaukat Aziz, the former Prime Minister,in respect of some apointments and postings of officers. Musharraf asked him to resign. He declined. Musharraf had a bill passed by the National Assembly in September 2006 reducing the tenure from five to three years. He was replaced at the end of three years.
8. A bitter Jamshed Gulzar Kiani, who felt humiliated by the treatment meted out to him by Musharraf despite his loyalty to him when he was Maj.Gen. and Lt.Gen., joined the group of anti-Musharraf officers such as Gen.Mirza Aslam Beg, former COAS who succeeded Zia-ul-Haq, after he died in a plane crash, Lt.Gen.Hamid Gul, former DG of the ISI etc and has been keeping on a campaign against Musharraf.
9.In his interview to the Geo TV, he made various allegations against Musharraf regarding the Kargil episode, Musharraf's post-9/11 co-operation with the US in the so-called war against terrorism and the commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July last year. He stated on follows on the Kargil episode:According to his information, Nawaz Sharif did not know anything about the Kargil episode. He was never thoroughly briefed on the same. He (Kiani) supported the holding of a probe into the Kargil fiasco. He had briefed Nawaz Sharif and told him that it was a very sensitive issue and he could not unveil all the details to him. In a meeting of May 17, 1999, Nawaz gave a green signal to the operation. He assured conditional support to General Musharraf that the Government would back the operation when he successfully moved forward. If unfortunately the same failed, he would not be in a position to support him (Musharraf).
10. In his interview to the "Dawn"on June 2,2008,, Kiani said: Nawaz Sharif, the majority of corps commanders and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) were kept in the dark about the Kargil operation in 1999.Although Nawaz was briefed on the Kargil issue, it was fairly late and the conflict had started by then.“It was not a comprehensive briefing that the chief executive should have been given.”
11.Talking to the media on June 3,2008, Nawaz Sharif demanded the trial of Musharraf on treason charges for his illegal Nov 3, 2007, steps in imposing a State of Emergency, the Lal Masjid carnage and keeping the nation, military officials and the then political leadership in the dark on the Kargil issue. Nawaz termed Musharraf’s account on the Kargil issue in his book, “In the Line of Fire,” a pack of lies and said the interview of Lt-Gen (retd) Jamshed Gulzar Kiani to Geo TV upheld his stance that he was not informed about the Kargil operation.
12.Nawaz was being clever. Kiani did not tell either Geo TV or the "Dawn" that Nawaz was not informed. He only said that Nawaz was informed later and that too not in a comprehensive manner. At the same time, he added that Nawaz approved the already on-going operation provided it would be successful.
13. Who is telling the truth---- Musharraf in his book in which he claimed that Nawaz was on board or Kiani, who claims that Nawaz was informed in passing after the Pakistan Army had moved into the Kargil heights and that he had not objected to it provided it would succeed or Nawaz, who claims that he like many Corps Commanders was not informed at all?
14. The definitive answer to this question is to be found in the archives of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). In the last week of May,1999, Musharraf had been to Beijing. He was in daily telephonic contact with Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the CGS, in Rawalpindi from his hotel room in Beijing. All these conversations were intercepted by the R&AW. The Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee decided to release to the media the transcripts of two of these tapes for three reasons. Firstly, the tapes showed that it was the Pakistani Army which had occupied the Kargil heights violating the Line of Control (LOC) and not the Kashmiri Mujahideen as claimed by Musharraf. Secondly, it was the Pakistan Army which had shot down an Indian Air Force plane and asked the Hizbul Mujahideen to claim the responsibility for it. Third, the tapes showed that Musharraf had launched his operation without the knowledge of Nawaz, many of his Corps Commanders, the ISI, the chiefs of the Air Force and Navy and his Foreign Office. He got nervous after the IAF went into action and there were reports of the Indian naval ships moving from the East to the West coast.
15.Worried over the possibility of the conflict spreading outside Kashmir, Musharraf authorised Lt.Gen.Aziz from Beijing to brief other officers about the operation at an inter-ministerial meeting chaired by Nawaz on May 29,1999. At this meeting, as reported by Aziz to Musharraf, there were objections to Musharraf's keeping others in the dark. According to the account of the meeting as given by Aziz to Musharraf in Beijing over telephone, Nawaz defended Musharraf's action in not informing others as due to the demands of operational secrecy. Nawaz claimed that he himself and other Corps Commanders were informed only a week earlier. He made it appear that Musharraf's action was understandable.
16.A careful examination of the tapes as released by the Vajpayee Government would indicate the following:
Musharraf launched the operation without taking the clearance of Nawaz and without the knowledge of most of the senior officers.
When the Indian Army hit back and the IAF went into action, he lost his nerve and informed firstly Nawaz and then other senior officers and the Foreign Office.
Instead of rebuking Musharraf for launching the operation without his clearance and asking him to stop it, Nawaz went along with it hoping that the operation would succeed.
When it did not, he flew to the US and sought the US assistance in bringing the fighting to a halt.
17. It is clear that neither Musharraf nor Nawaz nor Kiani is telling the whole truth. Each is telling only a part of the truth which, they think, would serve their purpose.
18. On June 14,1999, I had done a detailed analysis of the tapes as released to the media by Shri Jaswant Singh, the then Foreign Minister, and written an article titled "PAK ARMY CHIEF CAUGHT YAPPING". This article is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/notes/note21.html . Relevant extracts are appended below. ( 6-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
(Extract from my article of June 14,1999)
At what stage did Mr.Sharif become aware of the Pakistani Army's proxy invasion plans? The CGS, while reporting on May 29 to the COAS on a meeting held by Mr. Sharif says: "He said I (Sharif) came to know seven days back, when Corps Commanders were told. The entire reason for the success of this operation was this total secrecy. Our experience was that our earlier efforts failed because of lack of secrecy. So, the top priority is to accord confidentiality, to ensure success. We should respect this and the advantage we have from this would give us a handle."
There are two ways of interpreting this. First, as claimed by Mr.George Fernandes, our Defence Minister, the Army secretly planned and started the execution of this operation and informed Mr.Sharif thereafter.
The second interpretation is that at the inter-departmental meeting convened by Mr.Sharif, the Foreign Office representative expressed their unhappiness over the Army not keeping them in the picture since they had to handle the diplomatic fall-out. Mr.Sharif tried to soothe their ruffled feathers by claiming that he himself was informed only seven days earlier in the interest of operational secrecy. This does not necessarily mean that Mr. Sharif was not in the picture from the very beginning.
While the Pakistani Press and public are expressing their solidarity with their Army, one could discern in the comments of some independent analysts gnawing fears that Gen. Musharraf is becoming over-assertive at the expense of the credibility of the elected political leadership and that this operation could ultimately boomerang on Pakistan.
Thus, the "News" said in an article on May 29: "It is undeniable that armed men have crossed the Line in large numbers, if only because they themselves have admitted their presence and given Press statements by satellite telephone. They were not stopped by Pakistan Army patrols."
Mr.Azhar Abbas said in an article in the May issue of the "Herald", the monthly journal of the "Dawn" group:" The assumption here (in Pakistan) is that India cannot respond to this kind of (covert) warfare with a conventional attack on Pakistan....
"The Army appears convinced of the wisdom of keeping India bleeding in Kashmir and in the presence of an effective deterrent (in the form of nuclear weapons in the hands of Pakistan), the temptation to do so would be even greater.....
"Several retired Army officers believe that the new Army Chief is far more assertive than his predecessor (Gen. Jehangir Karamat) and, in the event of the Nawaz Government taking issue with the new doctrine, is unlikely to bow out as easily as Karamat. This points to troubled civil-military relations in the future...."
The article concludes: " Skeptics are already warning that in the guise of changing threat perceptions and bailing out the (internal) system, the Army may only be searching for a new power-sharing formula after the dissolution of the infamous Troika. If the Army's new doctrine is, indeed, little more than the quest for a new power-sharing arrangement, it is time for the Nawaz Government to disillusion the Army....If the Government fails to do that, in the words of Dr. Eqbal Ahmad (a highly-respected Pakistani analyst), this change of threat perception can cost us, in the long run, our entire future."
The article was analysing not only Gen. Musharraf's perception of India, but also his vigorous justification of the Army agreeing to take over purely civilian responsibilities such as running the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Mr.Sharif asked the Army to run the WAPDA to end corruption and to improve its efficiency. After taking over, Gen. Musharraf, to the discomfiture of Mr.Sharif, is reported to have issued orders that the Army would not only be responsible for the day-to-day running, but would also conduct all future negotiations with the independent power producers, thereby denying any role in this matter to the political leadership and civilian bureaucrats.
Did President Pervez Musharraf, who was the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) under Mr.Nawaz Sharif when he was the Prime Minister before October 12,1999, inform Mr.Sharif about his plans to send the Army to occupy the Kargil heights? If not, why not? If so, when did he inform him? What was the reaction of Mr.Sharif? Did he concur with Musharraf's action or did he disaprove of his action? What is the truth?
2. These questions have assumed importance in the light of two interviews given by Lt.Gen.(retd)Jamshed Gulzar Kiani on June 2,2008, to the Geo TV and the "Dawn" of Karachi. Jamshed Gulzar Kiani was a Major-General in the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) at the time of the Kargil conflict and the subsequent coup against Mr.Sharif. The ISI was then headed by Lt.Gen.Ziauddin, a Kashmiri of Punjabi origin from the Engineer Corps. The differences between Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif initially developed shortly after the appointment of Musharraf by Nawaz Sharif as the COAS in October,1998.
3. These differences were due to Nawaz Sharif's over-ruling Musharraf's objections to the appointment of Ziauddin as the Director-General of the ISI. Ziauddin was a close confidante of Nawaz Sharif and kept him informed of all actions of Musharraf, who stopped inviting him to some of his meetings with the Corps Commanders.
4. Jamshed Gulzar Kiani ingratiated himself with Musharraf by keeping him informed of the activities of Ziauddin. A small coterie of Army officers headed by Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the then Chief of the General Staff (CGS), staged a coup when Musharraf was returning to Karachi from Colombo on October 12,1999, and had Nawaz Sharif arrested because he dismissed Musharraf and appointed Ziauddin as the COAS. They prevented Ziauddin from entering the office of the COAS. He was arrested subsequently.
5. A question often debated in senior circles of the Pakistan Army is whether this coterie would have behaved in this manner if Nawaz Sharif had appointed a Punjabi Lt.Gen.from a fighting formation instead of an engineer as the COAS. Those, who held this view, used to argue that the objection of this coterie was not to the dismissal of Musharraf, a Mohajir, who was disliked by many of the Punjabi officers, but to his appointment of Ziauddin as the COAS. It is difficult to know the truth.
6. A month after taking over power as the Chief Executive, Musharraf promoted Jamshed Gulzar Kiani as a Lt.Gen and appointed him a Corps Commander. The two were very close to each other. Musharraf greatly appreciated his action before October 12,1999, in keeping him informed of the activities of Ziauddin and his links with Nawaz Sharif.
7. When Jamshed Gulzar Kiani reached the age of superannuation in 2003, Musharraf rewarded his loyalty by appointing him as the Chairman of the Federal Public Services Commission, which post had a fixed tenure of five years under the law. Serious differences developed between the two when Kiani as the Chairman of the Commission did not do the bidding of Musharraf and Mr.Shaukat Aziz, the former Prime Minister,in respect of some apointments and postings of officers. Musharraf asked him to resign. He declined. Musharraf had a bill passed by the National Assembly in September 2006 reducing the tenure from five to three years. He was replaced at the end of three years.
8. A bitter Jamshed Gulzar Kiani, who felt humiliated by the treatment meted out to him by Musharraf despite his loyalty to him when he was Maj.Gen. and Lt.Gen., joined the group of anti-Musharraf officers such as Gen.Mirza Aslam Beg, former COAS who succeeded Zia-ul-Haq, after he died in a plane crash, Lt.Gen.Hamid Gul, former DG of the ISI etc and has been keeping on a campaign against Musharraf.
9.In his interview to the Geo TV, he made various allegations against Musharraf regarding the Kargil episode, Musharraf's post-9/11 co-operation with the US in the so-called war against terrorism and the commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July last year. He stated on follows on the Kargil episode:According to his information, Nawaz Sharif did not know anything about the Kargil episode. He was never thoroughly briefed on the same. He (Kiani) supported the holding of a probe into the Kargil fiasco. He had briefed Nawaz Sharif and told him that it was a very sensitive issue and he could not unveil all the details to him. In a meeting of May 17, 1999, Nawaz gave a green signal to the operation. He assured conditional support to General Musharraf that the Government would back the operation when he successfully moved forward. If unfortunately the same failed, he would not be in a position to support him (Musharraf).
10. In his interview to the "Dawn"on June 2,2008,, Kiani said: Nawaz Sharif, the majority of corps commanders and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) were kept in the dark about the Kargil operation in 1999.Although Nawaz was briefed on the Kargil issue, it was fairly late and the conflict had started by then.“It was not a comprehensive briefing that the chief executive should have been given.”
11.Talking to the media on June 3,2008, Nawaz Sharif demanded the trial of Musharraf on treason charges for his illegal Nov 3, 2007, steps in imposing a State of Emergency, the Lal Masjid carnage and keeping the nation, military officials and the then political leadership in the dark on the Kargil issue. Nawaz termed Musharraf’s account on the Kargil issue in his book, “In the Line of Fire,” a pack of lies and said the interview of Lt-Gen (retd) Jamshed Gulzar Kiani to Geo TV upheld his stance that he was not informed about the Kargil operation.
12.Nawaz was being clever. Kiani did not tell either Geo TV or the "Dawn" that Nawaz was not informed. He only said that Nawaz was informed later and that too not in a comprehensive manner. At the same time, he added that Nawaz approved the already on-going operation provided it would be successful.
13. Who is telling the truth---- Musharraf in his book in which he claimed that Nawaz was on board or Kiani, who claims that Nawaz was informed in passing after the Pakistan Army had moved into the Kargil heights and that he had not objected to it provided it would succeed or Nawaz, who claims that he like many Corps Commanders was not informed at all?
14. The definitive answer to this question is to be found in the archives of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). In the last week of May,1999, Musharraf had been to Beijing. He was in daily telephonic contact with Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the CGS, in Rawalpindi from his hotel room in Beijing. All these conversations were intercepted by the R&AW. The Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee decided to release to the media the transcripts of two of these tapes for three reasons. Firstly, the tapes showed that it was the Pakistani Army which had occupied the Kargil heights violating the Line of Control (LOC) and not the Kashmiri Mujahideen as claimed by Musharraf. Secondly, it was the Pakistan Army which had shot down an Indian Air Force plane and asked the Hizbul Mujahideen to claim the responsibility for it. Third, the tapes showed that Musharraf had launched his operation without the knowledge of Nawaz, many of his Corps Commanders, the ISI, the chiefs of the Air Force and Navy and his Foreign Office. He got nervous after the IAF went into action and there were reports of the Indian naval ships moving from the East to the West coast.
15.Worried over the possibility of the conflict spreading outside Kashmir, Musharraf authorised Lt.Gen.Aziz from Beijing to brief other officers about the operation at an inter-ministerial meeting chaired by Nawaz on May 29,1999. At this meeting, as reported by Aziz to Musharraf, there were objections to Musharraf's keeping others in the dark. According to the account of the meeting as given by Aziz to Musharraf in Beijing over telephone, Nawaz defended Musharraf's action in not informing others as due to the demands of operational secrecy. Nawaz claimed that he himself and other Corps Commanders were informed only a week earlier. He made it appear that Musharraf's action was understandable.
16.A careful examination of the tapes as released by the Vajpayee Government would indicate the following:
Musharraf launched the operation without taking the clearance of Nawaz and without the knowledge of most of the senior officers.
When the Indian Army hit back and the IAF went into action, he lost his nerve and informed firstly Nawaz and then other senior officers and the Foreign Office.
Instead of rebuking Musharraf for launching the operation without his clearance and asking him to stop it, Nawaz went along with it hoping that the operation would succeed.
When it did not, he flew to the US and sought the US assistance in bringing the fighting to a halt.
17. It is clear that neither Musharraf nor Nawaz nor Kiani is telling the whole truth. Each is telling only a part of the truth which, they think, would serve their purpose.
18. On June 14,1999, I had done a detailed analysis of the tapes as released to the media by Shri Jaswant Singh, the then Foreign Minister, and written an article titled "PAK ARMY CHIEF CAUGHT YAPPING". This article is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/notes/note21.html . Relevant extracts are appended below. ( 6-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
(Extract from my article of June 14,1999)
At what stage did Mr.Sharif become aware of the Pakistani Army's proxy invasion plans? The CGS, while reporting on May 29 to the COAS on a meeting held by Mr. Sharif says: "He said I (Sharif) came to know seven days back, when Corps Commanders were told. The entire reason for the success of this operation was this total secrecy. Our experience was that our earlier efforts failed because of lack of secrecy. So, the top priority is to accord confidentiality, to ensure success. We should respect this and the advantage we have from this would give us a handle."
There are two ways of interpreting this. First, as claimed by Mr.George Fernandes, our Defence Minister, the Army secretly planned and started the execution of this operation and informed Mr.Sharif thereafter.
The second interpretation is that at the inter-departmental meeting convened by Mr.Sharif, the Foreign Office representative expressed their unhappiness over the Army not keeping them in the picture since they had to handle the diplomatic fall-out. Mr.Sharif tried to soothe their ruffled feathers by claiming that he himself was informed only seven days earlier in the interest of operational secrecy. This does not necessarily mean that Mr. Sharif was not in the picture from the very beginning.
While the Pakistani Press and public are expressing their solidarity with their Army, one could discern in the comments of some independent analysts gnawing fears that Gen. Musharraf is becoming over-assertive at the expense of the credibility of the elected political leadership and that this operation could ultimately boomerang on Pakistan.
Thus, the "News" said in an article on May 29: "It is undeniable that armed men have crossed the Line in large numbers, if only because they themselves have admitted their presence and given Press statements by satellite telephone. They were not stopped by Pakistan Army patrols."
Mr.Azhar Abbas said in an article in the May issue of the "Herald", the monthly journal of the "Dawn" group:" The assumption here (in Pakistan) is that India cannot respond to this kind of (covert) warfare with a conventional attack on Pakistan....
"The Army appears convinced of the wisdom of keeping India bleeding in Kashmir and in the presence of an effective deterrent (in the form of nuclear weapons in the hands of Pakistan), the temptation to do so would be even greater.....
"Several retired Army officers believe that the new Army Chief is far more assertive than his predecessor (Gen. Jehangir Karamat) and, in the event of the Nawaz Government taking issue with the new doctrine, is unlikely to bow out as easily as Karamat. This points to troubled civil-military relations in the future...."
The article concludes: " Skeptics are already warning that in the guise of changing threat perceptions and bailing out the (internal) system, the Army may only be searching for a new power-sharing formula after the dissolution of the infamous Troika. If the Army's new doctrine is, indeed, little more than the quest for a new power-sharing arrangement, it is time for the Nawaz Government to disillusion the Army....If the Government fails to do that, in the words of Dr. Eqbal Ahmad (a highly-respected Pakistani analyst), this change of threat perception can cost us, in the long run, our entire future."
The article was analysing not only Gen. Musharraf's perception of India, but also his vigorous justification of the Army agreeing to take over purely civilian responsibilities such as running the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Mr.Sharif asked the Army to run the WAPDA to end corruption and to improve its efficiency. After taking over, Gen. Musharraf, to the discomfiture of Mr.Sharif, is reported to have issued orders that the Army would not only be responsible for the day-to-day running, but would also conduct all future negotiations with the independent power producers, thereby denying any role in this matter to the political leadership and civilian bureaucrats.
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