B.RAMAN
(Based on the writer's visit to Shanghai from May 6 to 9,2008, for a discussion on the "Beijing Olympics & Security" )
The suspicions of the Chinese relating to a possible foreign hand in the recent uprising in Tibet seem to be focussed essentially on three non-governmental organisations, namely, the National Endowment For Democracy (NED) of the US, the Neumann Stiftung (Foundation) of Germany,and the "Reporters Without Borders " of France and the US-funded Radio Free Asia, which was started by the Clinton Administration.
2. Two detailed papers on the NED prepared by me in the past are available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers2/paper115.html and http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers2/paper198.htm. Not much is known about the other two NGOs. Radio Free Asia's budget was increased by the concerned authorities in Washington DC after the outbreak of the Tibetan uprising in March,2008. It is not known where from it broadcasts --- possibly Taiwan or Thailand. Its Tibetan language programmes seem to be largely produced in Nepal and its Uighur language programmes in Pakistan and Turkey.
3.I had reported as follows in my paper of March 19,2008, available at http://www.c3sindia.org/tibet/206/us-steps-up-broadcasts-telecasts-to-tibet/ :"The US authorities are reported to have taken action to strengthen the transmitting power of Radio Free Asia (RFA) and the Voice of America (VOA) in order to enable their broadcasts to overcome the jamming by the Chinese authorities. They have also announced an increase in their hours of broadcasts and telecasts to the Tibetan people with effect from March 18,2008. Mr.James K.Glassman, the Chairman of the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG), which is an independent federal agency which supervises all U.S. government-supported, non-military international broadcasting, announced on March 18,2008, as follows: “The violent crackdown by Chinese authorities in Tibet compels us to increase our broadcasts.Our audience clearly will benefit from these trustworthy sources of news and information, which differ sharply from Chinese government sanctioned broadcasts.” At present, RFA broadcasts eight hours daily to Tibet via shortwave radio. The VOA broadcasts four hours daily, also via shortwave. With effect from March 18, each has expanded its respective radio programmes by two additional hours daily. The VOA will also double its weekly Tibetan-language television programming from one to two hours via the AsiaSat 3 satellite. Mr.Libby Liu, President of the RFA, said on March 18,2008: “RFA’s Tibetan service is working round the clock to bring authoritative, breaking news to the Tibetan people. These additional hours will greatly enhance our capacity to deliver this news, including live updates, to people on the ground.”
4.The Chinese also seem to suspect that some Indian NGOs may be helping the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC). An anonymous E-mail circulating in China alleges than an Indian organisation called "Defence" has been running training classes for TYC elements in Himachal Pradesh. It is further alleged that Chota Rajan, the mafia leader, is orchestrating the training of anti-Pakistan elements from Afghanistan and anti-China elements from Himachal Pradesh in India. One cannot rule out the possibility that this mischievous mail making baseless allegations against India is being disseminated by the mafia group of Karachi-based Dawood Ibrahim at the instance of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in order to plant suspicions about India in the minds of the Chinese.
5. Even after all that has happened since March 10,2008, one could notice a reluctance on the part of the Chinese to come to terms with three stark realities staring them in their face. Firstly, despite the undoubted economic progress in Tibet, there is considerable alienation against Beijing due to religious reasons and due to perceptions of discrimination against the Tibetans. Second, the unwise demonisation of the Dalai Lama by the Chinese authorities has not dented the reverence in which he is held not only by the Tibetans, but also by large sections of the Buddhists all over the world. This demonisation of His Holiness by the Chinese authorities has proved counter-productive and has added to the alienation. Unless they reverse this policy and treat the Dalai Lama with all the respect that is his due, they cannot reverse the process of alienation. Third, there is no doubt that organisations such as the NED and the RFA have been taking advantage of the situation created by the mishandling of the Tibetan people by the Chinese authorities in order to fish in troubled waters. The Chinese have to blame themselves for this.
6. While it is not correct that any Indian organisation or group has been helping the TYC, one cannot deny that large sections of the Indian civil society---including this writer--- have an empathy for the Tibetans and His Holiness and wish them success in their efforts to highlight their grievances and have them redressed. If they do not feel sorry for the Chinese in their predicament, it is because of the way the Chinese have repeatedly stabbed India in the back---- by transfering military nuclear and missile capabilities to Pakistan and by their irredentist claims to Indian territory. No Indian in his right senses will entertain the Chinese claims to Arunachal Pradesh or at least to a part of it in Tawang. The longer the Chinese insist on Tawang being given to China, the greater will be the sympathy in the Indian civil society for the Tibetan cause.
7. India is not among the ill-wishers of China. It applauds the Chinese economic miracle. It applauds even more the great achievements of Shanghai. India wants the Olympics to succeed and will co-operate in every possible way with the Chinese authorities in preventing any terrorist threat. If the Olympic Games turn out to be less spectacular than China had wanted them to be and if the unrest and the global movement against China continues, the Chinese will have to blame themselves for it. (11-5-08) Concluded
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Saturday, May 10, 2008
MY SHANGHAI DIARY---PART III: WHY SORROW?
B.RAMAN
(Based on the writer's visit to Shanghai from May 6 to 9,2008, for a discussion on the "Beijing Olympics & Security" )
But, why the sorrow?
2. Because of what is projected as the failure of the international community to realise that the traditions, the spendour and the joys of the Olympics are not the heritage of just one country, but of the world as whole. If the Beijing Olympic games are tarnished, it is not just China's image which would be tarnished. It is the image of the international sporting community as a whole that would be tarnished.
3.It is said that China expected that the international community as a whole would have been happy that China, which has demonstrated how a developing country can reach hitherto unimaginable economic heights within three decades, has been awarded what the Chinese regard as the well-deserved right to host an Olympics and would have whole-heartedly co-operated with China and helped it in making a magnificent success of the Games.
4. China expected too that considering that this is the second Olympics after the 9/11 terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in US homeland---the first being the Athens Olympics of 2004--- the international community would have realised the importance of ensuring that the terrorists or political radicals did not succeed in disrupting the Olympics and would have extended to China all advice and assistance it needed to ensure the security of the Games.
5. Instead of doing so, for the last one year, the Dalai Lama's set-up, the TYC, the Tibetan diaspora, Western human rights groups and other non-governmental organisations have been creating difficulties under some pretext or the other such as the Chinese assistance to the Government of the Sudan, the alleged suppression of the Tibetans, the alleged lack of democracy and human rights violations in China etc.
6. It is claimed that when the Athens Olympics were held the entire NATO under the US leadership extended whatever assistance the Greek authorities wanted for ensuring the security of the Games.
7. It is alleged that similar co-operation and assistance have not been forthcoming for the Beijing Olympics. It is also alleged that Western human rights groups have been exercising pressure on their Governments not to transfer the latest post-9/11 physical security equipment and technologies to China for use during the Beijing Olympics on the ground that these equipment and technologies could be misused after the Olympics to suppress those sections of the Chinese population asking for their rights.
8. The hope is expressed that the Government of India would extend not only oral support to the successful holding of the Olympics, but also concrete support through actions such as controlling the activities of the violence-prone elements in the TYC, keeping a watch on their activities and preventing them from travelling outside till the Games are over.
9. The sorrow is mixed with a quiet determination to see that the Beijing Olympics are a spectacular success despite all the difficulties that are allegedly sought to be created for China by its ill-wishers.This determination is shared by all sections of the Government and the population. Making a spectacular success of the Olympics is the best way of teaching a lesson to the ill-wishers of China. So, it is said. (10-5-08) To be continued.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presentrly, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com ) Reply Reply
(Based on the writer's visit to Shanghai from May 6 to 9,2008, for a discussion on the "Beijing Olympics & Security" )
But, why the sorrow?
2. Because of what is projected as the failure of the international community to realise that the traditions, the spendour and the joys of the Olympics are not the heritage of just one country, but of the world as whole. If the Beijing Olympic games are tarnished, it is not just China's image which would be tarnished. It is the image of the international sporting community as a whole that would be tarnished.
3.It is said that China expected that the international community as a whole would have been happy that China, which has demonstrated how a developing country can reach hitherto unimaginable economic heights within three decades, has been awarded what the Chinese regard as the well-deserved right to host an Olympics and would have whole-heartedly co-operated with China and helped it in making a magnificent success of the Games.
4. China expected too that considering that this is the second Olympics after the 9/11 terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in US homeland---the first being the Athens Olympics of 2004--- the international community would have realised the importance of ensuring that the terrorists or political radicals did not succeed in disrupting the Olympics and would have extended to China all advice and assistance it needed to ensure the security of the Games.
5. Instead of doing so, for the last one year, the Dalai Lama's set-up, the TYC, the Tibetan diaspora, Western human rights groups and other non-governmental organisations have been creating difficulties under some pretext or the other such as the Chinese assistance to the Government of the Sudan, the alleged suppression of the Tibetans, the alleged lack of democracy and human rights violations in China etc.
6. It is claimed that when the Athens Olympics were held the entire NATO under the US leadership extended whatever assistance the Greek authorities wanted for ensuring the security of the Games.
7. It is alleged that similar co-operation and assistance have not been forthcoming for the Beijing Olympics. It is also alleged that Western human rights groups have been exercising pressure on their Governments not to transfer the latest post-9/11 physical security equipment and technologies to China for use during the Beijing Olympics on the ground that these equipment and technologies could be misused after the Olympics to suppress those sections of the Chinese population asking for their rights.
8. The hope is expressed that the Government of India would extend not only oral support to the successful holding of the Olympics, but also concrete support through actions such as controlling the activities of the violence-prone elements in the TYC, keeping a watch on their activities and preventing them from travelling outside till the Games are over.
9. The sorrow is mixed with a quiet determination to see that the Beijing Olympics are a spectacular success despite all the difficulties that are allegedly sought to be created for China by its ill-wishers.This determination is shared by all sections of the Government and the population. Making a spectacular success of the Olympics is the best way of teaching a lesson to the ill-wishers of China. So, it is said. (10-5-08) To be continued.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presentrly, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com ) Reply Reply
Friday, May 9, 2008
MY SHANGHAI DIARY---II: WHY ANGER?
B.RAMAN
(Based on the writer's visit to Shanghai from May 6 to 9,2008, for a discussion on the "Beijing Olympics & Security" )
Why anger?
2.Because of what the Tibetans did in Lhasa on March 14,2008, when there was large-scale violence directed at the Han Chinese and their property and thereafter in other Tibetan-inhabited areas outside the Tibet autonomous region.
3. Because of what the Chinese perceive and allege as the role played by the Dalai Lama, the Dharamsala-based Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) and some members of the Tibetan diaspora in the West in instigating this violence.
4.Because of the alleged role played by Western---particularly American --- human rights activists and non-governmental organisations such as the US-based National Endowment for Democracy (NED),the Germany-based Neumann Stiftung (Foundation) and the France-based "Reporters Without Frontiers" in instigating, funding and encouraging this violence.
5. Because of what the Chinese indignantly describe as the baseless allegations disseminated by the Dalai Lama, his advisers and the TYC regarding large-scale deaths of Tibetans during firing by the Chinese security forces in Lhasa and cultutal genocide in Tibet.
6. Because of what the Chinese describe as a mischievous, motivated and one-sided projection of the events by most of the Western media.
7. They do not hesitate to call the Dalai Lama, the TYC and their supporters as a pack of dishonest liars who have learnt the techniques of disinformation from their Western---particularly American-- supporters and funders.
8. They point out that while nearly 20 Hans were brutally killed by Tibetan mobs on March 14,2008---with some of them burnt alive--- there was not a single instance of retaliatory killing of Tibetans by the Hans. Even according to the Dalai Lama's version, the Tibetans who were killed died in the action taken by the security forces to quell violence by the Tibetan mobs and not at the hands of Han civilians, who, it is said, conducted themselves with great restraint despite the Tibetan attacks on them.
9. All sections of the Chinese one met were outraged that while the Western media played up what the Chinese describe as the baseless stories of the Dalai Lama's set-up, they blacked out the version of the Chinese Government.
10. Surprise was expressed over the fact that even large sections of the Indian media and analysts mainly accepted the Western and the Dalai Lama's versions, and ignored the Chinese Government's version or played it down.
11. The Dalai Lama----who is contemptuously referred to as Dalai or as the head of the Dalai clique--- is the most distrusted and disliked figure in China. He is seen as a double-dealer, as a man who says one thing, but does another, who keeps changing his position frequently depending on the prevailing circumstances.
12. According to them, the Dalai Lama openly talks of autonomy, but secretly asks the TYC to fight for independence, openly preaches non-violence, but secretly asks the TYC to take to violence, openly supports the holding of the Olympics in Beijing, but secretly asks the TYC to co-operate with Western---particularly American---human rights groups in sabotaging it.
13.How can we seriously deal with a person like him, who does not inspire confidence and trust, they ask. They are outraged by his demand for a Greater Tibet by merging in Tibet other Tibetan-inhabited areas of China, which do not now form part of the Tibet autonomous region and rule out even discussing this with him.
14. It is apparent that while they might be prepared to talk with the representatives of the Dalai Lama about his own future as the leader of the Tibetan Buddhists, they might not be prepared to discuss with him the future of Tibet. They dismiss firmly any suggestions for a Hong Kong or Taiwan style status for Tibet under the one country, two systems formula. They seem to suspect that the Dalai Lama's strategy is to come back to Tibet under an agreement with the Chinese, re-assume his political role and create a Taiwan-like situation by introducing a multi-party liberal democracy on the Indian model.
15. The TYC is widely seen as a terrorist organisation no different from Al Qaeda or the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan or the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). They claim to have captured arms and ammunition from the possession of TYC supporters in Tibet. The argument that the Dalai Lama is a good man, a great admirer of Mahatma Gandhi, a charismatic religious personality and has had no role in the radicalisation of the TYC falls on deaf ears.
16. There is appreciation of the stand taken by the Government of India that it would not allow the Dalai Lama's set-up to indulge in anti-Chinese activities from Indian territory and of the measures taken by the Government to ensure a safe passage for the Olympic Flame through New Delhi.
17. At the same time, one could discern an air of puzzlement over what is apparently perceived as the inaction of the Government of India against the TYC---particularly some American nationals of Tibetan origin, who now seem to dominate its policy-making and activities.
18. The Olympic flame has been successfully taken to the top of the Everest. It is proposed to be taken across the Tibetan-inhabited areas, including Tibet, in the third week of June.If there is a fresh outbreak of violence during that period, one should not be surprised if the Chinese authorities take up with the Government of India the question of arresting and extraditing to China those whom they might perceive as the ring leaders of the TYC-sponsored violence. (10-6-08) To be continued.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
(Based on the writer's visit to Shanghai from May 6 to 9,2008, for a discussion on the "Beijing Olympics & Security" )
Why anger?
2.Because of what the Tibetans did in Lhasa on March 14,2008, when there was large-scale violence directed at the Han Chinese and their property and thereafter in other Tibetan-inhabited areas outside the Tibet autonomous region.
3. Because of what the Chinese perceive and allege as the role played by the Dalai Lama, the Dharamsala-based Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) and some members of the Tibetan diaspora in the West in instigating this violence.
4.Because of the alleged role played by Western---particularly American --- human rights activists and non-governmental organisations such as the US-based National Endowment for Democracy (NED),the Germany-based Neumann Stiftung (Foundation) and the France-based "Reporters Without Frontiers" in instigating, funding and encouraging this violence.
5. Because of what the Chinese indignantly describe as the baseless allegations disseminated by the Dalai Lama, his advisers and the TYC regarding large-scale deaths of Tibetans during firing by the Chinese security forces in Lhasa and cultutal genocide in Tibet.
6. Because of what the Chinese describe as a mischievous, motivated and one-sided projection of the events by most of the Western media.
7. They do not hesitate to call the Dalai Lama, the TYC and their supporters as a pack of dishonest liars who have learnt the techniques of disinformation from their Western---particularly American-- supporters and funders.
8. They point out that while nearly 20 Hans were brutally killed by Tibetan mobs on March 14,2008---with some of them burnt alive--- there was not a single instance of retaliatory killing of Tibetans by the Hans. Even according to the Dalai Lama's version, the Tibetans who were killed died in the action taken by the security forces to quell violence by the Tibetan mobs and not at the hands of Han civilians, who, it is said, conducted themselves with great restraint despite the Tibetan attacks on them.
9. All sections of the Chinese one met were outraged that while the Western media played up what the Chinese describe as the baseless stories of the Dalai Lama's set-up, they blacked out the version of the Chinese Government.
10. Surprise was expressed over the fact that even large sections of the Indian media and analysts mainly accepted the Western and the Dalai Lama's versions, and ignored the Chinese Government's version or played it down.
11. The Dalai Lama----who is contemptuously referred to as Dalai or as the head of the Dalai clique--- is the most distrusted and disliked figure in China. He is seen as a double-dealer, as a man who says one thing, but does another, who keeps changing his position frequently depending on the prevailing circumstances.
12. According to them, the Dalai Lama openly talks of autonomy, but secretly asks the TYC to fight for independence, openly preaches non-violence, but secretly asks the TYC to take to violence, openly supports the holding of the Olympics in Beijing, but secretly asks the TYC to co-operate with Western---particularly American---human rights groups in sabotaging it.
13.How can we seriously deal with a person like him, who does not inspire confidence and trust, they ask. They are outraged by his demand for a Greater Tibet by merging in Tibet other Tibetan-inhabited areas of China, which do not now form part of the Tibet autonomous region and rule out even discussing this with him.
14. It is apparent that while they might be prepared to talk with the representatives of the Dalai Lama about his own future as the leader of the Tibetan Buddhists, they might not be prepared to discuss with him the future of Tibet. They dismiss firmly any suggestions for a Hong Kong or Taiwan style status for Tibet under the one country, two systems formula. They seem to suspect that the Dalai Lama's strategy is to come back to Tibet under an agreement with the Chinese, re-assume his political role and create a Taiwan-like situation by introducing a multi-party liberal democracy on the Indian model.
15. The TYC is widely seen as a terrorist organisation no different from Al Qaeda or the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan or the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). They claim to have captured arms and ammunition from the possession of TYC supporters in Tibet. The argument that the Dalai Lama is a good man, a great admirer of Mahatma Gandhi, a charismatic religious personality and has had no role in the radicalisation of the TYC falls on deaf ears.
16. There is appreciation of the stand taken by the Government of India that it would not allow the Dalai Lama's set-up to indulge in anti-Chinese activities from Indian territory and of the measures taken by the Government to ensure a safe passage for the Olympic Flame through New Delhi.
17. At the same time, one could discern an air of puzzlement over what is apparently perceived as the inaction of the Government of India against the TYC---particularly some American nationals of Tibetan origin, who now seem to dominate its policy-making and activities.
18. The Olympic flame has been successfully taken to the top of the Everest. It is proposed to be taken across the Tibetan-inhabited areas, including Tibet, in the third week of June.If there is a fresh outbreak of violence during that period, one should not be surprised if the Chinese authorities take up with the Government of India the question of arresting and extraditing to China those whom they might perceive as the ring leaders of the TYC-sponsored violence. (10-6-08) To be continued.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
MY SHANGHAI DIARY--I: A MIRACLE WITHIN A MIRACLE
B.RAMAN
(Based on the writer's visit to Shanghai from May 6 to 9,2008, for adiscussion on the "Beijing Olympics & Security" )
This was my second visit to Shanghai. The first was in May,2002, to attend an Asia-Pacific conference on terrorism in the aftermath ofthe 9/11 terrorist strikes. The latest visit was to attend a localdiscussion on terrorism ahead of the forthcoming Olympics at Bejingin August,2008.
2. Growing, growing, growing and still growing. That is the only wayof describing this city of which the Chinese are rightly proud.Shanghai of May,2008, is unrecognisable from the Shanghai ofMay,2002. It has developed horizontally and vertically and continuesto develop.
3. Statistics are irrelevant with regard to Shanghai. The statisticsof today will become outdated next week and so on. That is the paceof its development. Shanghai is proud that every important country ofthe world is represented there--- in its industries, in its businessworld, in its financial centres, in its architecture and in its artsand culture.
4. Shanghai is a miracle within a miracle. If China is rapidlyovertaking the rest of Asia----even the rest of the world---in itseconomic development and modernisation, Shanghai has alreadyovertaken the rest of China many times over in every aspect.
5. The Chinese without any exception and without any hesitation givethe credit to the late Deng Xiao-ping, the father of modern China, forthe economic miracle achieved within a short period of three decadesin the country as whole and even a shorter period of 16 years inShanghai.
6. He not only liberated the Chinese economy from the stranglehold ofthe State, but more important, also simultaneously liberated theChinese mind-set from the stranglehold of past prejudices, suspicionsand outmoded thinking. He made the Chinese overcome their traditionalsuspicions of foreigners and welcome everybody----whatever be his orher nationality--- who wanted to contribute to China's development.Without the liberation of the mind-set, the liberation of the economyalone may not have achieved the kind of miracle, which the world haswitnessed. That is the point which is stressed repeatedly by one'slocal interlocutors.
7. Another point which is equally stressed is that India is still farfrom achieving a similar miracle because the liberation of its economyhas not been accompanied by a similar liberation of the Indianmind-set from the stranglehold of its past prejudices, suspicions andways of thinking. As an example, a reference is made to its inabilityto get over the memories of the Sino-Indian war of 1962 and move aheadin developing co-operation with China much more rapidly than has beenpossible so far.
8. At the same time, one finds an inability even in the Chinese mindto rid itself of its ancient thinking in matters such as recovery ofterritory, which they look upon as rightfully belonging to China.Arunachal Pradesh---particularly Tawang--- is a glaring example. Whysuch rigidity on Tawang?
9. "Because our Tibetan people would not let us accept Indian controlof Tawang," one is told. Why the Tibetans would not agree? In responseto this question, one is told: ' Because Tawang is of religious andemotional importance to them. Tawang is as sacred to the TibetanBuddhists as Jerusalem is to the Jewish people. One of the pastDalai Lamas was born in Tawang. Recognising Tawang as Indian territorywould amount to recognising that he was an Indian citizen. How can the Tibetans do it? "
10.It is recognised that the sensitivities of both the countries areinvolved in Tawang. India cannot agree to a change of the status quo.China, it is said, cannot accept the status quo. A possible solutioncould be status quo plus with both the countries sharing theresponsibility for the administration and development of this area, itis said. It is pointed out that China and Japan are attempting asimilar solution towards the East China Sea islands, which both claim.
11.What strikes one during a short stay of four days is the tremendousnational pride of the Chinese people----pride over their past, prideover their present, pride over their achievements,and pride over thepolicies of their leadership, which have produced the miracle. One candiscern this pride everywhere and in everyone---young or old, man orwoman.
12. One cannot dismiss this pride by calling it simplistically as narrow nationalism, as many sections of the Western media try to do.China's greatest strength is not its military power or economic muscle, but this national pride. This pride has been hurt by what is perceived as the attempts made by some sections of the internationalcommunity to tarnish China's image on the eve of the Olympics. Next to this national pride, the emotion which strikes one is a mixture of anger, sorrow and suspicion due to the recent events in Tibet and insome Western cities during the passage of the Olympic flame.(10-5--08) To be continued
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delh, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre ForChina Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
(Based on the writer's visit to Shanghai from May 6 to 9,2008, for adiscussion on the "Beijing Olympics & Security" )
This was my second visit to Shanghai. The first was in May,2002, to attend an Asia-Pacific conference on terrorism in the aftermath ofthe 9/11 terrorist strikes. The latest visit was to attend a localdiscussion on terrorism ahead of the forthcoming Olympics at Bejingin August,2008.
2. Growing, growing, growing and still growing. That is the only wayof describing this city of which the Chinese are rightly proud.Shanghai of May,2008, is unrecognisable from the Shanghai ofMay,2002. It has developed horizontally and vertically and continuesto develop.
3. Statistics are irrelevant with regard to Shanghai. The statisticsof today will become outdated next week and so on. That is the paceof its development. Shanghai is proud that every important country ofthe world is represented there--- in its industries, in its businessworld, in its financial centres, in its architecture and in its artsand culture.
4. Shanghai is a miracle within a miracle. If China is rapidlyovertaking the rest of Asia----even the rest of the world---in itseconomic development and modernisation, Shanghai has alreadyovertaken the rest of China many times over in every aspect.
5. The Chinese without any exception and without any hesitation givethe credit to the late Deng Xiao-ping, the father of modern China, forthe economic miracle achieved within a short period of three decadesin the country as whole and even a shorter period of 16 years inShanghai.
6. He not only liberated the Chinese economy from the stranglehold ofthe State, but more important, also simultaneously liberated theChinese mind-set from the stranglehold of past prejudices, suspicionsand outmoded thinking. He made the Chinese overcome their traditionalsuspicions of foreigners and welcome everybody----whatever be his orher nationality--- who wanted to contribute to China's development.Without the liberation of the mind-set, the liberation of the economyalone may not have achieved the kind of miracle, which the world haswitnessed. That is the point which is stressed repeatedly by one'slocal interlocutors.
7. Another point which is equally stressed is that India is still farfrom achieving a similar miracle because the liberation of its economyhas not been accompanied by a similar liberation of the Indianmind-set from the stranglehold of its past prejudices, suspicions andways of thinking. As an example, a reference is made to its inabilityto get over the memories of the Sino-Indian war of 1962 and move aheadin developing co-operation with China much more rapidly than has beenpossible so far.
8. At the same time, one finds an inability even in the Chinese mindto rid itself of its ancient thinking in matters such as recovery ofterritory, which they look upon as rightfully belonging to China.Arunachal Pradesh---particularly Tawang--- is a glaring example. Whysuch rigidity on Tawang?
9. "Because our Tibetan people would not let us accept Indian controlof Tawang," one is told. Why the Tibetans would not agree? In responseto this question, one is told: ' Because Tawang is of religious andemotional importance to them. Tawang is as sacred to the TibetanBuddhists as Jerusalem is to the Jewish people. One of the pastDalai Lamas was born in Tawang. Recognising Tawang as Indian territorywould amount to recognising that he was an Indian citizen. How can the Tibetans do it? "
10.It is recognised that the sensitivities of both the countries areinvolved in Tawang. India cannot agree to a change of the status quo.China, it is said, cannot accept the status quo. A possible solutioncould be status quo plus with both the countries sharing theresponsibility for the administration and development of this area, itis said. It is pointed out that China and Japan are attempting asimilar solution towards the East China Sea islands, which both claim.
11.What strikes one during a short stay of four days is the tremendousnational pride of the Chinese people----pride over their past, prideover their present, pride over their achievements,and pride over thepolicies of their leadership, which have produced the miracle. One candiscern this pride everywhere and in everyone---young or old, man orwoman.
12. One cannot dismiss this pride by calling it simplistically as narrow nationalism, as many sections of the Western media try to do.China's greatest strength is not its military power or economic muscle, but this national pride. This pride has been hurt by what is perceived as the attempts made by some sections of the internationalcommunity to tarnish China's image on the eve of the Olympics. Next to this national pride, the emotion which strikes one is a mixture of anger, sorrow and suspicion due to the recent events in Tibet and insome Western cities during the passage of the Olympic flame.(10-5--08) To be continued
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delh, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre ForChina Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, May 3, 2008
AHMADINEJAD'S VISIT: IN PERSPECTIVE
B.RAMAN
In response to an invitation issued by President Mahinda Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka during his visit to Teheran in November,2007. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad of Iran paid a two-day official visit to Sri Lanka on April 28 and 29,2008.
2. Since last year, Sri Lanka has been facing economic difficulties due to the drying-up of economic assistance from countries of the European Union (EU) such as Germany because of what they perceive as the indifferent attitude of the Rajapaksa Government to complaints regarding the violation of the human rights of the Tamils and its refusal to seek a political solution to the problem.
3. Instead of succumbing to the EU pressure on the subject, the Rajapaksa Government turned for increased assistance to other countries such as China and Iran, which did not raise human rights issues as a condition for such assistance. Assistance from Iran was of crucial importance to Sri Lanka because of the Government's inability to pay for its increasingly costly oil imports.The Goverenment of Ahmadinejad readily agreed to provide oil at concessional rates to Sri Lanka and to train a small team of officers of the Sri Lankan Army and intelligence in Iran. It also agreed to provide a low-interest loan to Sri Lanka to enable it to purchase defence-related equipment from China and Pakistan.
4. In addition, it agreed to invest US $ 1.5 billion in energy-related projects in Sri Lanka. One of these projects is for the production of hydel power and the other to double the capacity of an existing oil refinery in Sri Lanka. Work on the construction of the hydel project started during Mr.Ahmadinejad's visit. Iranian engineers have laready been preparing the project report for doubling the capacity of the refinery and for modifying it to enable it to refine in future Iranian crude to be supplied at concessional rates. The existing capacity is 50,000 barrels a day.
5. The interest shown by Iran in Sri Lanka since last year is attributed to its desire to counter the Israeli influence in Sri Lanka and to use Sri Lanka as a base for monitoring the movements of US naval ships between the Pacific and the Gulf. Since Mr.Rajapaksa came to power, the visit of US naval vessels and officers to Sri Lanka has increased. Even before he came to power, Israel had emerged as an important supplier of military equipment, particularly for the Sri Lankan Air Force. The fact that even at the risk of misunderstanding with Israel, Mr.Rajapaksa chose to approach Iran and accepted its ready offer of assistance underlined the serious economic situation in which Sri Lanka found itself.
6. In view of the operation of a NATO Naval task force in the Gulf to provide logistics support to the NATO's military operations in Afghanistan, the officers in charge of Ahmadinejad's security were not in favour of his aircraft flying over the seas on his way to and back from Colombo. They reportedly decided that his aircraft should fly to Colombo over Pakistan and India and use the same route for its return journey.
7. The Iran Air Force has aircraft which can fly directly from Teheran to Colombo without the need for any intermediate halt.However, they are in a poor state of maintenance due to difficulties in procuring spare parts because of the sanctions imposed by the UN and the US against Iran. It was, therefore, decided that his aircraft should stop over briefly in Islamabad on his way to Colombo and in New Delhi on his way back. It is learnt that the initiative for stop-over visits came from Teheran because of considerations relating to the security of Mr.Ahmadinejad's plane.
8. Pakistan, which has not been worried about any adverse reaction from the US, welcomed the proposal and extended to him a high profile welcome while he was on his way to Colombo on April 28.His engagements in Islamabad included separate meetings with President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and a lunch hosted by the Prime Minister. While the local media hype focussed on the reported forward movement in the negotiations for a gas pipeline to supply Iranian gas to Pakistan and India----- a proposal, which has been under periodic discussions since Benazir Bhutto's second term as the Prime Minister (1993-96) withn ups and downs in hype and euphoria--- the real reason for the satisfaction of the Pakistani leadership was the Iranian President's positive response to Pakistan's request for urgent economic assistance.
9. The Pakistani economy has been in a bad shape since the beginning of this year due to shortages of food grains, flour and electricity. The shortages in foodgrains and flour have caused acute economic hardship to the people. The erratic electric supply has affected industrial production,which has also been affected by frequent disruptions in the supply of gas from Balochistan due to attacks on the pipelines from Balochistan to Punjab by the Balochistan Liberation Army(BLA). In response to reportedly desperate requests from Musharraf and Gilani, Mr.Ahmadinejad is learnt to have agreed to supply an unspecified quantity of foodgrains, flour and electricity to Pakistan.
10. On the question of the gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan, there were contradictory versions of the outcome of the talks despite the orchestrated atmosphere of optimism which Mr.Ahmadinejad himself tried to spread in Islamabad and New Delhi. While the "News" and the "Daily Times" gave an optimistic assessment as if all issues involving India, Pakistan and Iran had been sorted out on matters like price, the transit fee etc during the visit of Mr.Murli Deora, the Indian Petroleum Minister, to Pakistan before the Iranian President's visit, the "Dawn" of Karachi, which is better informed and which has its feet firmly on the ground, gave a more guarded picture. Quoting what it described as "diplomatic observers", the "Dawn" (April 29) said: "Several contentious issues remain to be addressed." It did not specify what were those contentious issues.
11. The 'Hindu" of Chennai was even more cautious than the "Dawn". It reported as follows on April 30,2008: " Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon reaffirmed Mr.Ahmadinejad's optimism, but cautioned that a long road lay ahead to ensure that the project was commercially viable, financially acceptable to India and all security concerns were taken care of."
12. There are various dimensions to this castle-building in the air over the gas pipeline from Iran. Among them, the following:
Financial: Both India and Pakistan are reported to have made it clear that Iran has to raise the funds (about US $ 7.5 billion) for the construction of the pipeline. Where is it going to get it when it has been facing difficulty for years in raising in the international market the funds required by it for the modernisation of its own oil and gas industries. The Americans are determined to see that unless and until it winds up its nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz, it is not able to raise a single cent in the international market.
Technical: The proposed pipeline will pass through earthquake prone areas on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border. Iran does not have the required technology for its construction. Only Western pipeline construction companies and those in Russia and China have it. The Western (including Australian) companies would not help because of the US pressure and the UN sanctions. Russia might help, but would want to be paid for it in cash. China would be prepared to help provided it is paid in kind in the form of a share of the gas to be transported. If Iran agrees to it, it would become a four-party project involving Iran, Pakistan, India and China and the entire proposal will have to be re-negotiated.
Security: The pipeline has to pass through Baloch majority areas on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border. The Balochs in Iran, who are Sunnis, are being assisted by the Americans through organisations such as the Jundullah to destabilise the border areas of Iran. The Balochs in Pakistan have also risen in revolt against the Government in Islamabad and are fighting for an independent Balochistan. They are demanding that they should also be a party to the gas pipeline project, which will pass through their homeland, and that they should get a share of the transit fee, which Pakistan hopes to get from India.
13. None of these really major issues has so far been addressed. The only issues addressed so far are the price of the gas and the transit fee to be paid by India to Pakistan. These are the least complex and the least difficult of the issues. The above-mentioned issues are much more complex and difficult. Iran, Pakistan and India have been misleading public opinion by creating an impression that just because an agreement has been reached on the pricing and transit fees, the pipeline is for tomorrow. It is not. There is still a long road ahead.
14. Spins, meant to generate an unwarranted atmosphere of optimism, are not confined to the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. The spins also cover the proposed oil/gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Iran is not involved in this project, which has the total blessing of the US. The idea of this project was originally initiated by the UNOCAL of the US in 1994, when Benazir was the Prime Minister. Since then it has been under discussion. After the Taliban captured power in Kabul in September,1996, UNOCAL lost interest in the project. After 9/11, most Western companies lost interest in the project because of the on-going military operations against Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban in the area. Only the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which is keenly interested in the project, kept the talks going even though there were no takers from major Western pipeline construction companies.
15. In the case of the Iranian pipeline, there is neither money nor construction offers. In the case of the Turkmenistan pipeline,money is available, but concrete construction offers are not forthcoming due to the security situation. As per the current proposal, the pipeline will pass through Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan to Multan in Pakistan. While the security situation in Herat is improving, that in Kandahar is as bad as ever. Till Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban are decisively defeated by the NATO forces, this pipeline is unlikely to take off. In response to an invitation from the sponsors, India has also joined this project and Mr.Deora participated in discussions on this project also during his recent visit to Pakistan. The US was also keen that India should join this project as it could provide an attractive alternative to the Iranian pipeline project. When both the projects are struggling to take off, the question of an attractive alternative does not arise.
16. The "Dawn" wrote on April 19,2008: "Pakistan had planned to start work on the (Turkmenistan) project in 2007 and complete it by 2011. But the target was missed. The project is now envisaged to be completed by 2018."
17. India had no difficulty in accepting Iran's proposal for a stop-over visit by Mr. Ahmadinejad to New Delhi. In view of the slowing-down of the operalionalisation of the India-US nuclear co-operation deal due to opposition from the Communists, likely US sensitivities on Iran were not an inhibiting factor in the way of inviting him. However, caution dictated a low-profile visit, which would not be too jarring to the US. While Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh hosted a private dinner for the Iranian President, he avoided any public fraternisation with him similar to the fraternisation which one saw in Islamabad and Colombo. However, the Iranian Embassy in New Delhi succeeded in giving to the visit a higher profile than what the Government of India had wanted. Mr.Ahmadinejad fully utilised his press conference, which was not attended by the Indian Prime Minister, to taunt and ridicule the US as a bully and a decaying power.
18. As one saw Mr.Ahmadinejad doing it, one's mind went back to the period before 2003 when another West Asian leader was using similar language against the US. He and his country paid a heavy price for it. His name was Saddam Hussein.
19. As one witnessed the demeanour and heard the anti-US rhetoric of Mr.Ahmadinejad during his diplomatic foray into South Asia, one got the impression that he feels that he no longer has to fear any US intervention in Iran over the issue of its uranium enrichment project.More by coincidence than by design, two reports, which should be worrisome for the Iranian leadership, came from Washington DC before the diplomatic foray of Mr. Ahmadinejad. First, the US decision to send a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf. Second, a briefing for a Congressional Committee by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on a mysterious bombing of a construction site in Syria in September, 2007, by an unidentified aircaft. The CIA confirmed what was being speculated about since then, namely, that the construction site was destroyed by an Israeli aircraft because it was to be a nuclear reactor being set up by Syria with North Korean assistance.
20. Was it a message to Mr.Ahmadinejad that what Israel did to Iraq by destroying the Osirak nuclear construction site in the early 1980s and to Syria last September, it could do to the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz in Iran. Of course, it won't be that easy. In Iraq and Syria, the Israelis bombed a construction site and not operational nuclear reactors. Natanz is not a project under construction. It is an already constructed and operational set-up located underground. The Iranians feel confident that Israel will not be able to damage or destroy Natanz. Their confidence also derives from the fact that Iran is a much stronger military power than Iraq or Syria and that the US, in their perception, has to depend on Iran for restoring normalcy in Iraq.
21. But the history of Israel shows that when it genuinely fears a threat to it and its people from the potential nuclear capability of an adversary state, it finds a way of neutralising that threat, whatever be the difficulties. Mr.Ahmadinejad's self-confidence may prove to be short-lived. (4-5-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
In response to an invitation issued by President Mahinda Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka during his visit to Teheran in November,2007. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad of Iran paid a two-day official visit to Sri Lanka on April 28 and 29,2008.
2. Since last year, Sri Lanka has been facing economic difficulties due to the drying-up of economic assistance from countries of the European Union (EU) such as Germany because of what they perceive as the indifferent attitude of the Rajapaksa Government to complaints regarding the violation of the human rights of the Tamils and its refusal to seek a political solution to the problem.
3. Instead of succumbing to the EU pressure on the subject, the Rajapaksa Government turned for increased assistance to other countries such as China and Iran, which did not raise human rights issues as a condition for such assistance. Assistance from Iran was of crucial importance to Sri Lanka because of the Government's inability to pay for its increasingly costly oil imports.The Goverenment of Ahmadinejad readily agreed to provide oil at concessional rates to Sri Lanka and to train a small team of officers of the Sri Lankan Army and intelligence in Iran. It also agreed to provide a low-interest loan to Sri Lanka to enable it to purchase defence-related equipment from China and Pakistan.
4. In addition, it agreed to invest US $ 1.5 billion in energy-related projects in Sri Lanka. One of these projects is for the production of hydel power and the other to double the capacity of an existing oil refinery in Sri Lanka. Work on the construction of the hydel project started during Mr.Ahmadinejad's visit. Iranian engineers have laready been preparing the project report for doubling the capacity of the refinery and for modifying it to enable it to refine in future Iranian crude to be supplied at concessional rates. The existing capacity is 50,000 barrels a day.
5. The interest shown by Iran in Sri Lanka since last year is attributed to its desire to counter the Israeli influence in Sri Lanka and to use Sri Lanka as a base for monitoring the movements of US naval ships between the Pacific and the Gulf. Since Mr.Rajapaksa came to power, the visit of US naval vessels and officers to Sri Lanka has increased. Even before he came to power, Israel had emerged as an important supplier of military equipment, particularly for the Sri Lankan Air Force. The fact that even at the risk of misunderstanding with Israel, Mr.Rajapaksa chose to approach Iran and accepted its ready offer of assistance underlined the serious economic situation in which Sri Lanka found itself.
6. In view of the operation of a NATO Naval task force in the Gulf to provide logistics support to the NATO's military operations in Afghanistan, the officers in charge of Ahmadinejad's security were not in favour of his aircraft flying over the seas on his way to and back from Colombo. They reportedly decided that his aircraft should fly to Colombo over Pakistan and India and use the same route for its return journey.
7. The Iran Air Force has aircraft which can fly directly from Teheran to Colombo without the need for any intermediate halt.However, they are in a poor state of maintenance due to difficulties in procuring spare parts because of the sanctions imposed by the UN and the US against Iran. It was, therefore, decided that his aircraft should stop over briefly in Islamabad on his way to Colombo and in New Delhi on his way back. It is learnt that the initiative for stop-over visits came from Teheran because of considerations relating to the security of Mr.Ahmadinejad's plane.
8. Pakistan, which has not been worried about any adverse reaction from the US, welcomed the proposal and extended to him a high profile welcome while he was on his way to Colombo on April 28.His engagements in Islamabad included separate meetings with President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and a lunch hosted by the Prime Minister. While the local media hype focussed on the reported forward movement in the negotiations for a gas pipeline to supply Iranian gas to Pakistan and India----- a proposal, which has been under periodic discussions since Benazir Bhutto's second term as the Prime Minister (1993-96) withn ups and downs in hype and euphoria--- the real reason for the satisfaction of the Pakistani leadership was the Iranian President's positive response to Pakistan's request for urgent economic assistance.
9. The Pakistani economy has been in a bad shape since the beginning of this year due to shortages of food grains, flour and electricity. The shortages in foodgrains and flour have caused acute economic hardship to the people. The erratic electric supply has affected industrial production,which has also been affected by frequent disruptions in the supply of gas from Balochistan due to attacks on the pipelines from Balochistan to Punjab by the Balochistan Liberation Army(BLA). In response to reportedly desperate requests from Musharraf and Gilani, Mr.Ahmadinejad is learnt to have agreed to supply an unspecified quantity of foodgrains, flour and electricity to Pakistan.
10. On the question of the gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan, there were contradictory versions of the outcome of the talks despite the orchestrated atmosphere of optimism which Mr.Ahmadinejad himself tried to spread in Islamabad and New Delhi. While the "News" and the "Daily Times" gave an optimistic assessment as if all issues involving India, Pakistan and Iran had been sorted out on matters like price, the transit fee etc during the visit of Mr.Murli Deora, the Indian Petroleum Minister, to Pakistan before the Iranian President's visit, the "Dawn" of Karachi, which is better informed and which has its feet firmly on the ground, gave a more guarded picture. Quoting what it described as "diplomatic observers", the "Dawn" (April 29) said: "Several contentious issues remain to be addressed." It did not specify what were those contentious issues.
11. The 'Hindu" of Chennai was even more cautious than the "Dawn". It reported as follows on April 30,2008: " Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon reaffirmed Mr.Ahmadinejad's optimism, but cautioned that a long road lay ahead to ensure that the project was commercially viable, financially acceptable to India and all security concerns were taken care of."
12. There are various dimensions to this castle-building in the air over the gas pipeline from Iran. Among them, the following:
Financial: Both India and Pakistan are reported to have made it clear that Iran has to raise the funds (about US $ 7.5 billion) for the construction of the pipeline. Where is it going to get it when it has been facing difficulty for years in raising in the international market the funds required by it for the modernisation of its own oil and gas industries. The Americans are determined to see that unless and until it winds up its nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz, it is not able to raise a single cent in the international market.
Technical: The proposed pipeline will pass through earthquake prone areas on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border. Iran does not have the required technology for its construction. Only Western pipeline construction companies and those in Russia and China have it. The Western (including Australian) companies would not help because of the US pressure and the UN sanctions. Russia might help, but would want to be paid for it in cash. China would be prepared to help provided it is paid in kind in the form of a share of the gas to be transported. If Iran agrees to it, it would become a four-party project involving Iran, Pakistan, India and China and the entire proposal will have to be re-negotiated.
Security: The pipeline has to pass through Baloch majority areas on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border. The Balochs in Iran, who are Sunnis, are being assisted by the Americans through organisations such as the Jundullah to destabilise the border areas of Iran. The Balochs in Pakistan have also risen in revolt against the Government in Islamabad and are fighting for an independent Balochistan. They are demanding that they should also be a party to the gas pipeline project, which will pass through their homeland, and that they should get a share of the transit fee, which Pakistan hopes to get from India.
13. None of these really major issues has so far been addressed. The only issues addressed so far are the price of the gas and the transit fee to be paid by India to Pakistan. These are the least complex and the least difficult of the issues. The above-mentioned issues are much more complex and difficult. Iran, Pakistan and India have been misleading public opinion by creating an impression that just because an agreement has been reached on the pricing and transit fees, the pipeline is for tomorrow. It is not. There is still a long road ahead.
14. Spins, meant to generate an unwarranted atmosphere of optimism, are not confined to the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. The spins also cover the proposed oil/gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Iran is not involved in this project, which has the total blessing of the US. The idea of this project was originally initiated by the UNOCAL of the US in 1994, when Benazir was the Prime Minister. Since then it has been under discussion. After the Taliban captured power in Kabul in September,1996, UNOCAL lost interest in the project. After 9/11, most Western companies lost interest in the project because of the on-going military operations against Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban in the area. Only the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which is keenly interested in the project, kept the talks going even though there were no takers from major Western pipeline construction companies.
15. In the case of the Iranian pipeline, there is neither money nor construction offers. In the case of the Turkmenistan pipeline,money is available, but concrete construction offers are not forthcoming due to the security situation. As per the current proposal, the pipeline will pass through Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan to Multan in Pakistan. While the security situation in Herat is improving, that in Kandahar is as bad as ever. Till Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban are decisively defeated by the NATO forces, this pipeline is unlikely to take off. In response to an invitation from the sponsors, India has also joined this project and Mr.Deora participated in discussions on this project also during his recent visit to Pakistan. The US was also keen that India should join this project as it could provide an attractive alternative to the Iranian pipeline project. When both the projects are struggling to take off, the question of an attractive alternative does not arise.
16. The "Dawn" wrote on April 19,2008: "Pakistan had planned to start work on the (Turkmenistan) project in 2007 and complete it by 2011. But the target was missed. The project is now envisaged to be completed by 2018."
17. India had no difficulty in accepting Iran's proposal for a stop-over visit by Mr. Ahmadinejad to New Delhi. In view of the slowing-down of the operalionalisation of the India-US nuclear co-operation deal due to opposition from the Communists, likely US sensitivities on Iran were not an inhibiting factor in the way of inviting him. However, caution dictated a low-profile visit, which would not be too jarring to the US. While Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh hosted a private dinner for the Iranian President, he avoided any public fraternisation with him similar to the fraternisation which one saw in Islamabad and Colombo. However, the Iranian Embassy in New Delhi succeeded in giving to the visit a higher profile than what the Government of India had wanted. Mr.Ahmadinejad fully utilised his press conference, which was not attended by the Indian Prime Minister, to taunt and ridicule the US as a bully and a decaying power.
18. As one saw Mr.Ahmadinejad doing it, one's mind went back to the period before 2003 when another West Asian leader was using similar language against the US. He and his country paid a heavy price for it. His name was Saddam Hussein.
19. As one witnessed the demeanour and heard the anti-US rhetoric of Mr.Ahmadinejad during his diplomatic foray into South Asia, one got the impression that he feels that he no longer has to fear any US intervention in Iran over the issue of its uranium enrichment project.More by coincidence than by design, two reports, which should be worrisome for the Iranian leadership, came from Washington DC before the diplomatic foray of Mr. Ahmadinejad. First, the US decision to send a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf. Second, a briefing for a Congressional Committee by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on a mysterious bombing of a construction site in Syria in September, 2007, by an unidentified aircaft. The CIA confirmed what was being speculated about since then, namely, that the construction site was destroyed by an Israeli aircraft because it was to be a nuclear reactor being set up by Syria with North Korean assistance.
20. Was it a message to Mr.Ahmadinejad that what Israel did to Iraq by destroying the Osirak nuclear construction site in the early 1980s and to Syria last September, it could do to the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz in Iran. Of course, it won't be that easy. In Iraq and Syria, the Israelis bombed a construction site and not operational nuclear reactors. Natanz is not a project under construction. It is an already constructed and operational set-up located underground. The Iranians feel confident that Israel will not be able to damage or destroy Natanz. Their confidence also derives from the fact that Iran is a much stronger military power than Iraq or Syria and that the US, in their perception, has to depend on Iran for restoring normalcy in Iraq.
21. But the history of Israel shows that when it genuinely fears a threat to it and its people from the potential nuclear capability of an adversary state, it finds a way of neutralising that threat, whatever be the difficulties. Mr.Ahmadinejad's self-confidence may prove to be short-lived. (4-5-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, May 2, 2008
BEIJING OLYMPICS: MOVES FOR DE-ESCALATION CONTINUE
B.RAMAN
The Olympic torch had an eight-hour successful run around Hong Kong on May 2,2008. It was carried by a relay of 120 localpersonalities.Chinese residents of Hong Kong in large numbers greeted the flame. Chinese concerns that attempts to disrupt the passage ofthe flame might be made by pro-Tibet, pro-democracy and pro-Falun Gong activists were belied. Small groups of pro-democracy (about 12)and pro-Tibet (about 10) activists did demonstrate at two places, but the local Police were able to prevent them from causing anydisruption. The flame was taken to Macau on the evening of May 2,2008.
2. On April 30,2008, the immigration authorities at Hong Kong airport refused entry into the territory to three pro-Tibet activists----one fromthe US and two from Canada---who wanted to join the protest. They had to go back to where they came from.
3. It was announced on April 30,2008, that Mia Farrow, the Hollywood actress who started the movement for the boycott of the Olympicsmore than a year ago to protest against the Chinese assistance to the Government of Sudan and persuaded Hollywood personalities suchas Steven Spielberg not to associate themselves with the arrangements being made by the Organisers of the Olympics for spectacularopening and closing ceremonies, would be arriving in Hong Kong on May 1,2008, to address the local foreign correspondents' club. She wastreated with courtesy by the immigration authorities on her arrival and allowed to enter the territory.
4. In pursuance of their announcement of April 25,2008, about their willingness to talk to representatives of the Dalai Lama, the ChineseEmbassy in Berne, Switzereland, reportedly contacted Mr.Kelsang Gyaltsen, the special representative of the Dalai Lama who is based inZurich, and invited him and Mr.Lodi Gyaltsen Gyari, the special representative of His Holiness in Washington DC, to visit Beijing for ameeting with the Chinese officials, who had been talking with them in the past.
5. The invitation was welcomed by the Western Governments, but His Holiness was not enthusiastic about a visit at this time since he saw itas a tactical move to reduce pressure on Beijing from the international community without any serious purpose. However, the WesternGovernments reportedly advised the set-up of His Holiness not to spurn the Chinese invitation, but to reciprocate the Chinese gesture bysending his representatives to Beijing. The Dalai Lama's set-up in Dharamsala announced on May 2,2008 that Mr.Gyari and Mr.KelsangGyaltsen would reach Beijing on May 3 in response to the Chinese invitation.
6. While doing so, the office of the Dalai Lama has sought to play down unwarranted hopes.The Tibetan Prime Minister-in-exile, Mr.Samdhong Rinpoche, said: ""We don't have much high expectations. Nevertheless, we are happy consultations are taking place.It is not aformal round of talks.It is only an informal consultation."
7. The Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC), which has been repeatedly accused by the Government-controlled Chinese media of being a terroristorganisation, has also made some moves towards de-escalation. The Chinese were particularly outraged by an interview reportedly given byMr. Tsewang Rigizin, the President of the TYC, who is reportedly an US citizen, to an Italian newspaper in which he allegedly threatenedthat the TYC might resort to suicide attacks. This has been strongly denied by him. He has said in a statement from Dharamsala: " The TYC strongly rejects these allegations as baseless and fallacious.We have never planned any suicide attacks. I have always maintained thatviolence is not an option for us.I am not quoted correctly. I never said that we would plan suicide attacks or resort to violence. I havealready written to the Italian news reporter about the allegation. I am yet to receive a reply on that. In the last 38 years of TYC’s existence,we have always campaigned for Tibet's independence based on the historical truth and non-violence and have never resorted to anyterrorist activities or suicide attacks to achieve our goal of Tibet's independence.Since the inception of TYC in 1970, our main goal is toregain Tibet’s independence and restore the dignity of the Tibetan people and we will continue our non-violent struggle until Tibet isindependent. "
8. While the Chinese media and the TYC have kept up their campaign of mutual demonisation of each other, advice for moderation from theWestern Governments and business houses and senior officials on the International Olympics Committee seem to be having an effectslowly. There is a growing conviction in the Western Governments that it would be counter-productive to use the Tibetan and other humanrights issues to hurt the Chinese national pride over the Olympics being held in Beijing. Millions of Chinese people not only in China, but alsoin the overseas Chinese community have been looking forward to this occasion with joy and excitement and it would be wrong to makethem feel humiliated.
9. It remains to be seen whether the hot-heads in the TYC continue to accept the advice to cool it or try to create more incidents when theflame is taken to Tibet. It is also not clear to what extent the Dalai Lama and the TYC are in a position to calm the anger of the Tibetanyouth and monks in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China. (3-5-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Olympic torch had an eight-hour successful run around Hong Kong on May 2,2008. It was carried by a relay of 120 localpersonalities.Chinese residents of Hong Kong in large numbers greeted the flame. Chinese concerns that attempts to disrupt the passage ofthe flame might be made by pro-Tibet, pro-democracy and pro-Falun Gong activists were belied. Small groups of pro-democracy (about 12)and pro-Tibet (about 10) activists did demonstrate at two places, but the local Police were able to prevent them from causing anydisruption. The flame was taken to Macau on the evening of May 2,2008.
2. On April 30,2008, the immigration authorities at Hong Kong airport refused entry into the territory to three pro-Tibet activists----one fromthe US and two from Canada---who wanted to join the protest. They had to go back to where they came from.
3. It was announced on April 30,2008, that Mia Farrow, the Hollywood actress who started the movement for the boycott of the Olympicsmore than a year ago to protest against the Chinese assistance to the Government of Sudan and persuaded Hollywood personalities suchas Steven Spielberg not to associate themselves with the arrangements being made by the Organisers of the Olympics for spectacularopening and closing ceremonies, would be arriving in Hong Kong on May 1,2008, to address the local foreign correspondents' club. She wastreated with courtesy by the immigration authorities on her arrival and allowed to enter the territory.
4. In pursuance of their announcement of April 25,2008, about their willingness to talk to representatives of the Dalai Lama, the ChineseEmbassy in Berne, Switzereland, reportedly contacted Mr.Kelsang Gyaltsen, the special representative of the Dalai Lama who is based inZurich, and invited him and Mr.Lodi Gyaltsen Gyari, the special representative of His Holiness in Washington DC, to visit Beijing for ameeting with the Chinese officials, who had been talking with them in the past.
5. The invitation was welcomed by the Western Governments, but His Holiness was not enthusiastic about a visit at this time since he saw itas a tactical move to reduce pressure on Beijing from the international community without any serious purpose. However, the WesternGovernments reportedly advised the set-up of His Holiness not to spurn the Chinese invitation, but to reciprocate the Chinese gesture bysending his representatives to Beijing. The Dalai Lama's set-up in Dharamsala announced on May 2,2008 that Mr.Gyari and Mr.KelsangGyaltsen would reach Beijing on May 3 in response to the Chinese invitation.
6. While doing so, the office of the Dalai Lama has sought to play down unwarranted hopes.The Tibetan Prime Minister-in-exile, Mr.Samdhong Rinpoche, said: ""We don't have much high expectations. Nevertheless, we are happy consultations are taking place.It is not aformal round of talks.It is only an informal consultation."
7. The Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC), which has been repeatedly accused by the Government-controlled Chinese media of being a terroristorganisation, has also made some moves towards de-escalation. The Chinese were particularly outraged by an interview reportedly given byMr. Tsewang Rigizin, the President of the TYC, who is reportedly an US citizen, to an Italian newspaper in which he allegedly threatenedthat the TYC might resort to suicide attacks. This has been strongly denied by him. He has said in a statement from Dharamsala: " The TYC strongly rejects these allegations as baseless and fallacious.We have never planned any suicide attacks. I have always maintained thatviolence is not an option for us.I am not quoted correctly. I never said that we would plan suicide attacks or resort to violence. I havealready written to the Italian news reporter about the allegation. I am yet to receive a reply on that. In the last 38 years of TYC’s existence,we have always campaigned for Tibet's independence based on the historical truth and non-violence and have never resorted to anyterrorist activities or suicide attacks to achieve our goal of Tibet's independence.Since the inception of TYC in 1970, our main goal is toregain Tibet’s independence and restore the dignity of the Tibetan people and we will continue our non-violent struggle until Tibet isindependent. "
8. While the Chinese media and the TYC have kept up their campaign of mutual demonisation of each other, advice for moderation from theWestern Governments and business houses and senior officials on the International Olympics Committee seem to be having an effectslowly. There is a growing conviction in the Western Governments that it would be counter-productive to use the Tibetan and other humanrights issues to hurt the Chinese national pride over the Olympics being held in Beijing. Millions of Chinese people not only in China, but alsoin the overseas Chinese community have been looking forward to this occasion with joy and excitement and it would be wrong to makethem feel humiliated.
9. It remains to be seen whether the hot-heads in the TYC continue to accept the advice to cool it or try to create more incidents when theflame is taken to Tibet. It is also not clear to what extent the Dalai Lama and the TYC are in a position to calm the anger of the Tibetanyouth and monks in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China. (3-5-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
REVIEW OF MY LAST BOOK BY "WORLD AFFAIRS MONTHLY"
http://www.worldaffairsmonthly.com/article.php?id=7&date=May-2008
ESPIONAGE MOVES FROM THE PUBLIC SECTOR TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR
It is nice to have an enemy, or enemies, for they can prove to be useful and even exciting. This presupposes that we can identify our enemies. Unfortunately, it is not always an easy matter to identify our enemies. If we can, then we are in business. If we can’t, then we have few options – in fact, very few options. One option is to open hostilities with the presumed enemies, but of course this can be self-defeating and even foolhardy. The other option is espionage. There are three original businesses: there was espionage; there was prostitution; and there was religion. Secrets and valued info is sold; sex is sold; and God is sold. Espionage is certainly the most interesting of the three. At least, with espionage we can say that there are few boring moments. Selling sex and God is undoubtedly lucrative, but it is also tiresome and boring.
In New Delhi at the foreign ministry building there is a research and analysis section, and it is sort of kept apart from the regular diplomatic business. The Indians call it the research & analysis wing, or R&AW. This is the place where the spies of the Indian diplomatic corps are found. It is, as we might expect, a kind of a messy place. It turns out that it is the wives of the regular Indian diplomats who are dangerous to the men of R&AW – and I assume it is mostly men in the R&AW (this is South Asia, after all). These ladies are apparently fond of “outing” R&AW spies at dinner parties, etc. It is also evident that the Gandhi family was deeply respected, whereas Singh, the current Indian prime minister, is seen as something rather less desirable. The story of Indian espionage is told by B. Raman, himself a former spy in the R&AW. In 2007 he published a book in India with the title The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane (Lancer Publishers, India). I have had the book since the summer of 2007, but for a number of sensible reasons I delayed and then delayed again the review and interview that I knew I would do. I wanted to give it a serious study, and I did. It is a brilliant piece of writing, and it is easy to come to admire its author.
There is no real habit in the spy business to come out and tell stories or the truth about what went on during the spy’s tenure in the business. This is a shame, argues Raman. And he is absolutely right. I cannot find myself agreeing with his South Asia politics – terrorism is for me a rather unsubtle form of warfare – but it is easy, as I have said, to respect his views and his hard-headed assessment of the importance and value of the spy business. We have to know these things about our enemies, he argues. We have got to do a better job at the spy business. We can avoid war, and we can avoid a lot of unpleasant events, assassinations, etc. Raman’s book is very valuable; I very much recommend it as an indispensable study of politics, international politics, espionage, and South Asian intrigue – and the Indian conflict with the Islamic world. He is a personable man, and quite articulate. He is a natural analyst, he writes, and I do agree. I expect that B. Raman and I will speak regularly. Click here or on the audio icon above to listen to the editor of World Affairs Monthly interview B. Raman.
This kind of book is almost inconceivable in the United States or Europe. We will just not see this open endorsement of scrutiny of a spy agency and its activities. It is all too political, Raman argues. This is certainly true, but I am impressed with this Indian ability to face up to the truth, which is that the spies have an important job and it cannot be treated as just another government bureaucracy. But of course it is, and here lies the problem, and the main issue. The spy business is going to be contracted off to private business, I predict. Government bureaucrats are much too inept and incapable of doing the job well. A government job is desirable because it is a government job. There is no performance; there is no scrutiny; there is little or no competition. So, the government spy agencies are mostly a joke – and we know this from the experience of the CIA. Raman does not agree with me that the spy business will go private, and I can understand his reluctance to endorse such a view. He is likely to be conservative by nature, though throughout his book he speaks with praise of the Indian efforts to bring liberation and freedom to African nations. Raman argues: “Protection of Pakistan from the consequences of its wrong-doing against India has been a consistent element in US policy-making towards India and Pakistan ever since 1947 – whichever party was in power in Washington.” Well, India was more or less in the Soviet bloc during the Cold War, and this is the principal reason for Washington’s favoring of Pakistan over India. This should be obvious, shouldn’t it?
Freedom is indeed the key to settling the conflicts in the world and preventing war and guerrilla war. The more freedom in the world – the more freedom in Kashmir and the more freedom in Palestine and Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia – the less we will see violence and guerrilla war (terrorism). As I have argued repeatedly in WAM, the “war on terror” is a joke, and it is a joke because until we see freedom break out in the Middle East we will see no progress whatsoever made against the secret machinations of men who harbor deep and long-standing grievances against their oppressors. It is a war of total futility and it is a huge expense as well. Raman did agree with me on this, and perhaps we will flesh this thesis out in the next several interviews. I may even ask him he if wishes to write an occasional article for WAM. Thanks so much Raman for the interesting discussion. I look forward to the next one. I have published below the final chapter of Raman’s book, a chapter which is appropriately titled “Looking To The Future.” The future, in my view, is espionage moving from the public sector to the private sector. This is simply inevitable, as inevitable as freedom in the Middle East and indeed throughout the rest of the world.
ESPIONAGE MOVES FROM THE PUBLIC SECTOR TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR
It is nice to have an enemy, or enemies, for they can prove to be useful and even exciting. This presupposes that we can identify our enemies. Unfortunately, it is not always an easy matter to identify our enemies. If we can, then we are in business. If we can’t, then we have few options – in fact, very few options. One option is to open hostilities with the presumed enemies, but of course this can be self-defeating and even foolhardy. The other option is espionage. There are three original businesses: there was espionage; there was prostitution; and there was religion. Secrets and valued info is sold; sex is sold; and God is sold. Espionage is certainly the most interesting of the three. At least, with espionage we can say that there are few boring moments. Selling sex and God is undoubtedly lucrative, but it is also tiresome and boring.
In New Delhi at the foreign ministry building there is a research and analysis section, and it is sort of kept apart from the regular diplomatic business. The Indians call it the research & analysis wing, or R&AW. This is the place where the spies of the Indian diplomatic corps are found. It is, as we might expect, a kind of a messy place. It turns out that it is the wives of the regular Indian diplomats who are dangerous to the men of R&AW – and I assume it is mostly men in the R&AW (this is South Asia, after all). These ladies are apparently fond of “outing” R&AW spies at dinner parties, etc. It is also evident that the Gandhi family was deeply respected, whereas Singh, the current Indian prime minister, is seen as something rather less desirable. The story of Indian espionage is told by B. Raman, himself a former spy in the R&AW. In 2007 he published a book in India with the title The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane (Lancer Publishers, India). I have had the book since the summer of 2007, but for a number of sensible reasons I delayed and then delayed again the review and interview that I knew I would do. I wanted to give it a serious study, and I did. It is a brilliant piece of writing, and it is easy to come to admire its author.
There is no real habit in the spy business to come out and tell stories or the truth about what went on during the spy’s tenure in the business. This is a shame, argues Raman. And he is absolutely right. I cannot find myself agreeing with his South Asia politics – terrorism is for me a rather unsubtle form of warfare – but it is easy, as I have said, to respect his views and his hard-headed assessment of the importance and value of the spy business. We have to know these things about our enemies, he argues. We have got to do a better job at the spy business. We can avoid war, and we can avoid a lot of unpleasant events, assassinations, etc. Raman’s book is very valuable; I very much recommend it as an indispensable study of politics, international politics, espionage, and South Asian intrigue – and the Indian conflict with the Islamic world. He is a personable man, and quite articulate. He is a natural analyst, he writes, and I do agree. I expect that B. Raman and I will speak regularly. Click here or on the audio icon above to listen to the editor of World Affairs Monthly interview B. Raman.
This kind of book is almost inconceivable in the United States or Europe. We will just not see this open endorsement of scrutiny of a spy agency and its activities. It is all too political, Raman argues. This is certainly true, but I am impressed with this Indian ability to face up to the truth, which is that the spies have an important job and it cannot be treated as just another government bureaucracy. But of course it is, and here lies the problem, and the main issue. The spy business is going to be contracted off to private business, I predict. Government bureaucrats are much too inept and incapable of doing the job well. A government job is desirable because it is a government job. There is no performance; there is no scrutiny; there is little or no competition. So, the government spy agencies are mostly a joke – and we know this from the experience of the CIA. Raman does not agree with me that the spy business will go private, and I can understand his reluctance to endorse such a view. He is likely to be conservative by nature, though throughout his book he speaks with praise of the Indian efforts to bring liberation and freedom to African nations. Raman argues: “Protection of Pakistan from the consequences of its wrong-doing against India has been a consistent element in US policy-making towards India and Pakistan ever since 1947 – whichever party was in power in Washington.” Well, India was more or less in the Soviet bloc during the Cold War, and this is the principal reason for Washington’s favoring of Pakistan over India. This should be obvious, shouldn’t it?
Freedom is indeed the key to settling the conflicts in the world and preventing war and guerrilla war. The more freedom in the world – the more freedom in Kashmir and the more freedom in Palestine and Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia – the less we will see violence and guerrilla war (terrorism). As I have argued repeatedly in WAM, the “war on terror” is a joke, and it is a joke because until we see freedom break out in the Middle East we will see no progress whatsoever made against the secret machinations of men who harbor deep and long-standing grievances against their oppressors. It is a war of total futility and it is a huge expense as well. Raman did agree with me on this, and perhaps we will flesh this thesis out in the next several interviews. I may even ask him he if wishes to write an occasional article for WAM. Thanks so much Raman for the interesting discussion. I look forward to the next one. I have published below the final chapter of Raman’s book, a chapter which is appropriately titled “Looking To The Future.” The future, in my view, is espionage moving from the public sector to the private sector. This is simply inevitable, as inevitable as freedom in the Middle East and indeed throughout the rest of the world.
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