B.RAMAN
Since 2005, Prachanda, the leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), has become a lovable mascot of the liberal elite of thecountry----particularly in New Delhi. They see nothing but positive in him. His pre-2005 record has been forgotten---- the brutal massacre ofinnocent civilians in different parts of Nepal by the well-trained, well-armed and well-motivated insurgent army raised by him, his contactswith the Shining Path guerillas of Peru, his role in helping the Maoists in India, particularly in Andhra Pradesh, his fulminations against India,particularly against the Indian Army, his devotion to Mao Zedong's Thoughts, his raising of his insurgent army with the cladestine support ofthe royal family in order to use it against India, his turning the insurgents against the monarchy after having benefited ftom its largesse etc.
2. For the elite, he has undergone a remarkable metamorphosis. From a Maoist, he has become a Dengist---for whom pragmatism and notideological rigidity should guide policy-making. His fulminations against India stopped. He embarked on a charm offensive directed at Indiaand its elite. His supporters from the Indian elite welcomed him with open arms and took him round the corridors of power and the labyrinthof think-tanks in Delhi. They all hailed the born-again democrat, who wants nothing but genuine democracy in Nepal. He made it apparent inmany of his statements in Nepal that he would not consider democracy as genuine unless it enabled him to become the President of arepublican Nepal, but that did not sound a jarring note in New Delhi. The desire to encourage his seeming metamorphosis became thedriving force of policy-making and the negative comments emanating from him from time to time were overlooked.
3. Anybody, who drew attention to his pre-2005 past and urged caution in assessing him and his metamorphosis, was frowned upon andeven abused . I was, therefore, not surprised by the torrent of abusive and denigrating messages, which were triggered off by my earlierarticle titled "Valid Reasons For A Military Take-Over in Nepal." As if I had committed an act of blasphemy by writing that article.
4.Welcoming an insurgent movement into the political mainstream and integrating it in the mainstream is a delicate process, which has tobe handled carefully and gradually so that in our over-eagerness to achieve integration, we do not make the problem worse. We have a goodrecord of managing the process of integration. We did so successfully with the so-called Naga Federal Government (NFG) under IndiraGandhi as the Prime Minister in the 1970s and with the Mizo National Front (MNF) under Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi as Prime Ministers inthe 1980s. Indonesia has recently embarked successfully on a similar exercise for the integration of the Free Aceh Movement.
5.Many issues came up during the long negotiations with the NFG and the MNF--- such as, their giving up the use of violence and acceptingthe Constitution of the country, the Government accepting their legitimate demands relating to greater political and economic role, therehabilitation of their armed cadres after they surrender their weapons and their participation in the elections.
6. Their participation in the elections, winning them and taking over power as part of an over-all peace settlement already arrived at beforethe elections came as the culminating stage of the process. Till the culminating stage, the negotiations were held between the Governmenton one side of the table and the insurgent leaders on the other side. The insurgent leaders were the negotiators of the process and not thedecision-makers. The ground rules for the integration were decided upon by the policy-makers of the Government on the basis of thenegotiations with the insurgent leaders, who had no role in finalising the ground rules and in implementing them.
7. The most difficult stage of the exercise is the integration and rehabilitation of the armed cadres as part of the process. All insurgentorganisations demand that their armed cadres be integrated into the Army or at least the security forces. We did not agree to integrate theminto the armed forces, but the Army was encouraged to make recruitment in the civil societies of the affected states to convince the peoplethat they had been accepted without any mental reservations as part of the national mainstream. Eligible cadres of the insurgentorganisations, who were not involved in murders or assassinations, were inducted into the local police and central police organisations.Alldecision-making was in the hands of the Government till the culminating stage.
8. In Nepal, the reverse has happened. Taking advantage of the popular uprising of 2006 against the widely-detested King , the Maoistsentered the coalition Government, which replaced a Government of royalist stooges, and started dictating terms as to how the integrationshould take place. They themselves became one of the policy-makers to decide on the process of integration. The integration is takingplace not on the basis of negotiations between the Government and the insurgents, but in response to diktats issued from time to time bythe Maoists in return for their continued participation in the Government.They are all the time giving out discreet threats that if their diktatsare rejected, they might quit the Government and revert to insurgency.
9. The holding of the elections to the Constituent Assembly before the ground rules for integration were agreed upon and the victory of theMaoists in the elections----significant, but not spectacular as projected by sections of the media--- have led to a situation where the Maoistswill be at the head of a Government which will take crucial decisions on the post-facto legitimisation of the terrorist infrastructure raised bythe Maoists and on the ground rules for the integration of their ideologically motivated and well-trained cadres. The moment the Maoistsassume leadership in the seats of power and decision-making, will it be possible to resist their demands?
10. If the integration of over 3000 ideologically indoctrinated cadres of the insurgent army into the Nepal Army comes about, we will have to the west of us an army ideologically motivated by jihadi doctrines and to the east of us an army ideologically motivated by Marxism,Leninism and Mao's Thoughts.
11. There are two possible scenarios--- these fears turn out to be baseless and Prachanda turns out to be a genuine democrat and agenuine friend of India or Prachanda after the elections turns out to be different from Prachanda before the elections and takes Nepal on aroad, which would be detrimental to our national interests.
12. While hoping for the first scenario, we must be prepared for the second.
13. Highlighting stark realities is not an act of blasphemy. It is an important component of threat analysis.(28-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Saturday, April 26, 2008
VALID REASONS FOR A MILITARY TAKE-OVER IN NEPAL
B.RAMAN
"Ultimately, we will have to fight with the Indian army. That is the situation. Therefore, we have to take into account the Indian army. When the Indian army comes in with thousands and thousands of soldiers, it will be a very big thing. But we are not afraid of the Indian Army because, in one way, it will be a very good thing. They will give us lots of guns. And lots of people will fight them. This will be a national war. And it will be a very big thing. They will have many difficulties intervening. It will not be so easy for them. But if they stupidly dare...they will dare, they will be compelled. They will do that stupidity. We have to prepare for that. And for that reason we are saying we will also need a particular international situation. And for us this has to do mainly with India, Indian expansionism. When there is an unstable situation in India and a strong mass base there in support of People's War in Nepal and there are contradictions within the Indian ruling class-at that point we can seize, we can establish and declare that we have base areas, that we have a government." ----Prachanda, the Nepalese Maoist leader in an interview to a Latin American journalist. Please see my article titled "THE MAOISTS OF NEPAL: Three perspectives" dated July 13,2001, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers3/paper277.html
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As a successful democracy, India cannot support a military coup in any country.
2. But sometimes, in our national interest, we may have to close our eyes to a military take-over or to the evils of a military rule in a neighbouring country.
3.As we have been doing in the case of Myanmar for over a decade now.
4. As we did in Bangladesh last year when chronic political instability seemed to be pushing the country into the hands of jihadi terrorists of various hues and various vintages.
5. We may be well-advised to do so if the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) decides to prevent the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) led by Prachanda, which has emerged as the leading party in the recent elections, from using its position as the leader of the Government to convert the RNA with its glorious traditions into the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of Nepal patterned after the PLA of China and North Korea and after the Cuban Army.
6. In his statements and interviews before the elections, Prachanda has given clear indications of their priorities if the Maoists came to power. First, have the monarchy abolished and proclaim Nepal as a Republic with a Presidential style of Government. Second, himself assume office as the President of Nepal. Third,abrogate all existing agreements with India and re-negotiate those of them, which are considered to be in Nepal's interests. And four, merge the armed cadres of the Maoists into the RNA to convert a royalist army into a people's army.
7.After Mao Zedong's PLA captured power in China in 1949 and proclaimed the People's Republic of China, the PLA became the army of the State. The leaders of the Chinese Communist Party proclaimed China as the "rear base" for all communist movements in Asia. It assisted North Korea in its war with the US-led coalition, North Vietnam in its war initially against the French and subsequently against the Americans and the South Vietnamese Army and the communist insurgencies in Malaysia, Northern Thailand and Myanmar and helped the Indonesian communists in a big way till the military coup staged by the Indonesian Army under President Suharto saved the country from falling into the hands of the communists. The Burmese Army under Gen.Ne Win similarly captured power in the early 1960s to prevent their country from falling into the hands of the communists and other ethnic insurgent groups. In 1979, after 30 years of trying to export Maoism, Deng Xiaoping changed this policy and stopped exporting the revolution to other countries.
8. After capturing power in Cuba in the early 1960s, Fidel Castro converted his armed guerillas into the army of the state and embarked on a policy of exporting the Cuban revolution to other Latin American countries, with Cuba serving as the rear base. The death of Che Guavera, who was asked to have this policy executed, allegedly at the hands of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) put an end to Cuba's communist dreams in Latin America, but till today, the Cuban Government and Communist Party continue with their attempts at political subversion in the Latin American countries.
9.Only Vietnam proved a refreshing contrast. After they defeated the Americans and the South Vietnamese Army in 1975 and re-united their country, they concentrated on developing the country and avoided all ideological adventures abroad.
10. Which model Prachanda and his Maoist followers will follow---the Chinese, the Cuban or the Vietnamese? If one goes by his past statements and interviews, he is likely to follow a mix of the Chinese and Cuban models and not the Vietnamese. He has always been attracted by the idea of Nepal serving as a rear base for exporting the Maoist revolution to India. He has also viewed a destabilised India preoccupied with internal security as in the long-term interests of Nepal. We should not allow his present charm offensive towards India make us forget his past.
11.Till now, our military planners have been worried over the dangers of India being confronted one day with a two-front war----with Pakistan and China.We now have to think seriously about the dangers of a three-front war with Pakistan, China and Nepal.
12. Once the communists accede to power---through an armed revolution or through the ballot box---- they try to see that nobody else can dislodge them. There have been exceptions, of course. Nicaragua, for example. But, there the communists were prevented from entrenching themselves through strong US support for non-communist elements.
13. It is neither in the interests of Nepal nor of India for the Maoists to entrench themselves in power and convert the RNA into the PLA of Nepal and turn Nepal into a rear base to help the Maoists in India. The plans of the Maoists for a presidential style of Government in Nepal with all powers concentrated in the hands of Prachanda and with the RNA replaced by the PLAN should be thwarted. All genuinely democratic forces in Nepal and the military leadership should join hands to prevent the communists from carrying out their long-term designs.The communists will fight back ferociously all attempts to deny them the fruits of power. The fear of a possibly bloody riposte by the communists should not deter those worried over the implications of the Maoists' plan from acting before it is too late. (26-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventryone2@gmail.com )
"Ultimately, we will have to fight with the Indian army. That is the situation. Therefore, we have to take into account the Indian army. When the Indian army comes in with thousands and thousands of soldiers, it will be a very big thing. But we are not afraid of the Indian Army because, in one way, it will be a very good thing. They will give us lots of guns. And lots of people will fight them. This will be a national war. And it will be a very big thing. They will have many difficulties intervening. It will not be so easy for them. But if they stupidly dare...they will dare, they will be compelled. They will do that stupidity. We have to prepare for that. And for that reason we are saying we will also need a particular international situation. And for us this has to do mainly with India, Indian expansionism. When there is an unstable situation in India and a strong mass base there in support of People's War in Nepal and there are contradictions within the Indian ruling class-at that point we can seize, we can establish and declare that we have base areas, that we have a government." ----Prachanda, the Nepalese Maoist leader in an interview to a Latin American journalist. Please see my article titled "THE MAOISTS OF NEPAL: Three perspectives" dated July 13,2001, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers3/paper277.html
-------------------------------------------------------------
As a successful democracy, India cannot support a military coup in any country.
2. But sometimes, in our national interest, we may have to close our eyes to a military take-over or to the evils of a military rule in a neighbouring country.
3.As we have been doing in the case of Myanmar for over a decade now.
4. As we did in Bangladesh last year when chronic political instability seemed to be pushing the country into the hands of jihadi terrorists of various hues and various vintages.
5. We may be well-advised to do so if the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) decides to prevent the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) led by Prachanda, which has emerged as the leading party in the recent elections, from using its position as the leader of the Government to convert the RNA with its glorious traditions into the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of Nepal patterned after the PLA of China and North Korea and after the Cuban Army.
6. In his statements and interviews before the elections, Prachanda has given clear indications of their priorities if the Maoists came to power. First, have the monarchy abolished and proclaim Nepal as a Republic with a Presidential style of Government. Second, himself assume office as the President of Nepal. Third,abrogate all existing agreements with India and re-negotiate those of them, which are considered to be in Nepal's interests. And four, merge the armed cadres of the Maoists into the RNA to convert a royalist army into a people's army.
7.After Mao Zedong's PLA captured power in China in 1949 and proclaimed the People's Republic of China, the PLA became the army of the State. The leaders of the Chinese Communist Party proclaimed China as the "rear base" for all communist movements in Asia. It assisted North Korea in its war with the US-led coalition, North Vietnam in its war initially against the French and subsequently against the Americans and the South Vietnamese Army and the communist insurgencies in Malaysia, Northern Thailand and Myanmar and helped the Indonesian communists in a big way till the military coup staged by the Indonesian Army under President Suharto saved the country from falling into the hands of the communists. The Burmese Army under Gen.Ne Win similarly captured power in the early 1960s to prevent their country from falling into the hands of the communists and other ethnic insurgent groups. In 1979, after 30 years of trying to export Maoism, Deng Xiaoping changed this policy and stopped exporting the revolution to other countries.
8. After capturing power in Cuba in the early 1960s, Fidel Castro converted his armed guerillas into the army of the state and embarked on a policy of exporting the Cuban revolution to other Latin American countries, with Cuba serving as the rear base. The death of Che Guavera, who was asked to have this policy executed, allegedly at the hands of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) put an end to Cuba's communist dreams in Latin America, but till today, the Cuban Government and Communist Party continue with their attempts at political subversion in the Latin American countries.
9.Only Vietnam proved a refreshing contrast. After they defeated the Americans and the South Vietnamese Army in 1975 and re-united their country, they concentrated on developing the country and avoided all ideological adventures abroad.
10. Which model Prachanda and his Maoist followers will follow---the Chinese, the Cuban or the Vietnamese? If one goes by his past statements and interviews, he is likely to follow a mix of the Chinese and Cuban models and not the Vietnamese. He has always been attracted by the idea of Nepal serving as a rear base for exporting the Maoist revolution to India. He has also viewed a destabilised India preoccupied with internal security as in the long-term interests of Nepal. We should not allow his present charm offensive towards India make us forget his past.
11.Till now, our military planners have been worried over the dangers of India being confronted one day with a two-front war----with Pakistan and China.We now have to think seriously about the dangers of a three-front war with Pakistan, China and Nepal.
12. Once the communists accede to power---through an armed revolution or through the ballot box---- they try to see that nobody else can dislodge them. There have been exceptions, of course. Nicaragua, for example. But, there the communists were prevented from entrenching themselves through strong US support for non-communist elements.
13. It is neither in the interests of Nepal nor of India for the Maoists to entrench themselves in power and convert the RNA into the PLA of Nepal and turn Nepal into a rear base to help the Maoists in India. The plans of the Maoists for a presidential style of Government in Nepal with all powers concentrated in the hands of Prachanda and with the RNA replaced by the PLAN should be thwarted. All genuinely democratic forces in Nepal and the military leadership should join hands to prevent the communists from carrying out their long-term designs.The communists will fight back ferociously all attempts to deny them the fruits of power. The fear of a possibly bloody riposte by the communists should not deter those worried over the implications of the Maoists' plan from acting before it is too late. (26-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventryone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
KEVIN RUDD: ALL THE WAY WITH CHINA
B.RAMAN
"A puzzling question for the Chinese is: How can India put all its strategic policy eggs in the baskets of three sunset leaders, namely, President George Bush, who will be out next year, Mr. John Howard of Australia, who may be out by the end of this year, and Mr. Shinzo Abe of Japan (he is already out) ? A convergence of views and interests with these sunset leaders will be ephemeral and of uncertain benefit to India and its people, whereas any convergence with the Chinese leadership would be durable and of definite benefit to India and its people. So, it is said. " ---Extract from my article titled "Seeing China From Chengdu" of September 19,2007, available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers24/paper2381.html
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Mr.John Howard, the previous Australian Prime Minister, is out after he and his Liberal/National coalition were defeated in the elections held on November 24,2007 . The policy-makers of other countries, including China, knew that Mr.Howard's days were numbered and that they should not put their policy eggs in his basket. They waited for the Australian elections before undertaking any major policy initiative. When Mr.Kevin Rudd of the Australian Labour Party, succeeded Mr.Howard as the Prime Minister and changed the main contours of Australia's foreign policy, they were not taken by surprise.
2. Indian policy-makers, whose decisions are influenced more by wishful thinking than by hard ground realities, rushed into one initiative after another without waiting for new leaders to emerge in the US, Japan and Australia. They embraced the proposal for a so-called concert of democracies involving India, the US, Japan and Mr.Howard's Australia. They engaged in nuclear castle-building in the air in the fond expectation that Mr.Howard's Australia will support the lifting of restrictions on nuclear trade with India by the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) when the Indo-US agreement on civilian nuclear co-operation comes up before it and that it would sell uranium to India as it has been selling to China. They joined the five-power naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal in September,2007, involving the navies of India, the US, Howard's Australia, Singapore and Japan.
3. All their big-power castle-building in the air has come down with a crash after Mr.Kevin Rudd took over as the new Australian Prime Minister. One of his first decisions after taking over as the Prime Minister was that Australia would not sell uranium to India. This decision was publicly announced. Another decision being talked about, but not yet publicly announced was that Australia would not support India in the NSG.
4. His second major decision was that Australia would not participate in the concert of democracies and in any other arrangement which might create in China concerns that it was being encircled. That means, no more Australian participation in joint naval exercises which might cause concern in Beijing.
5. His third major decision was to undertake an 18-day visit to countries considered by him as important to Australian interests in order to explain the policies of his Government. Japan and India were not in the list of countries chosen by him. Subsequently, he and his advisers tried to soothen Japanese sensitivities by stressing that the exclusion of Japan from this list did not mean any down-grading of Japan's importance for Australia.
6.China, China, China, China and more of China was the recurring theme of his speeches in the countries visited by Mr.Rudd, who had spent nearly eight years as an Australian diplomat in Beijing and reportedly speaks the Chinese language fluently. The joke in the English-speaking countries visited by him was that he seemed to be more confident in the Chinese language than in English. His English language is as incomprehensible as the sudden turns in Australian foreign policy introduced by him.
7. The only country not surprised by the Australian foreign policy volte face caused by him is China. It had closely studied him during his long years in Beijing. It had correctly assessed his fascination for China and his seeming contempt for India. His indifference to India was apparent during his first overseas tour. Wherever he spoke, his preoccupation was with Australia's relations with the US and China. Hardly any reference to India.
8. Though there are indications that he would favour India becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council and joining the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) organisation and that he might visit India later this year, he does not envisage any role for India in any new security infrastructure for the Asia-Pacific region. His poor opinion of the ASEAN, the ASEAN Regional Forum,the ASEAN plus three, the East Asia Summit and the APEC was obvious. During his interaction with a select audience in the Brookings Institution of Washington DC on March 31,2008, he indicated his preference for the six-power group----of which China is a member and India is not--- which has been negotiating with North Korea on the nuclear issue being expanded to constitute the hard core of any new security infrastructure for the region.
9. In his interactions at the Brookings,he sought "common ground" between China and the international community in a bid to make the Asian giant a "responsible stakeholder" contributing to a "harmonious" global and regional order. China has always welcomed the emergence of India as a major Asian power, but one rung below it---- not on par with China. Bejing looks upon China as an emerging world power on par with the US and India only as an emerging Asian power on par with Japan. Mr.Rudd seems to agree with this perspective.
10. It has been reported that during his visit to Washington DC, President Bush could not succeed in making Mr.Rudd agree to support the nuclear agreement with India in the NSG. If true, this would put an end to India's hopes of having the NSG restrictions on nuclear trade with India lifted before the end of the term of Mr.Bush.
11. India's action in welcoming a stop-over by the Iranian President Mr.Mahmud Ahmadinejad at New Delhi on his way back to Teheran after a visit to Colombo later this month and New Delhi's strong rebuttal of the remarks of a US State Department spokesperson on the stop-over are a clear indication that New Delhi has come to terms with the ground realities and is trying to restore the status quo ante in India's foreign policy making before the Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh's visit to the US in July,2005, when the nuclear deal was signed. Since then, there have been major distortions in our foreign policy in favour of the US. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of at least some of these distortions? (24-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
"A puzzling question for the Chinese is: How can India put all its strategic policy eggs in the baskets of three sunset leaders, namely, President George Bush, who will be out next year, Mr. John Howard of Australia, who may be out by the end of this year, and Mr. Shinzo Abe of Japan (he is already out) ? A convergence of views and interests with these sunset leaders will be ephemeral and of uncertain benefit to India and its people, whereas any convergence with the Chinese leadership would be durable and of definite benefit to India and its people. So, it is said. " ---Extract from my article titled "Seeing China From Chengdu" of September 19,2007, available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers24/paper2381.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mr.John Howard, the previous Australian Prime Minister, is out after he and his Liberal/National coalition were defeated in the elections held on November 24,2007 . The policy-makers of other countries, including China, knew that Mr.Howard's days were numbered and that they should not put their policy eggs in his basket. They waited for the Australian elections before undertaking any major policy initiative. When Mr.Kevin Rudd of the Australian Labour Party, succeeded Mr.Howard as the Prime Minister and changed the main contours of Australia's foreign policy, they were not taken by surprise.
2. Indian policy-makers, whose decisions are influenced more by wishful thinking than by hard ground realities, rushed into one initiative after another without waiting for new leaders to emerge in the US, Japan and Australia. They embraced the proposal for a so-called concert of democracies involving India, the US, Japan and Mr.Howard's Australia. They engaged in nuclear castle-building in the air in the fond expectation that Mr.Howard's Australia will support the lifting of restrictions on nuclear trade with India by the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) when the Indo-US agreement on civilian nuclear co-operation comes up before it and that it would sell uranium to India as it has been selling to China. They joined the five-power naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal in September,2007, involving the navies of India, the US, Howard's Australia, Singapore and Japan.
3. All their big-power castle-building in the air has come down with a crash after Mr.Kevin Rudd took over as the new Australian Prime Minister. One of his first decisions after taking over as the Prime Minister was that Australia would not sell uranium to India. This decision was publicly announced. Another decision being talked about, but not yet publicly announced was that Australia would not support India in the NSG.
4. His second major decision was that Australia would not participate in the concert of democracies and in any other arrangement which might create in China concerns that it was being encircled. That means, no more Australian participation in joint naval exercises which might cause concern in Beijing.
5. His third major decision was to undertake an 18-day visit to countries considered by him as important to Australian interests in order to explain the policies of his Government. Japan and India were not in the list of countries chosen by him. Subsequently, he and his advisers tried to soothen Japanese sensitivities by stressing that the exclusion of Japan from this list did not mean any down-grading of Japan's importance for Australia.
6.China, China, China, China and more of China was the recurring theme of his speeches in the countries visited by Mr.Rudd, who had spent nearly eight years as an Australian diplomat in Beijing and reportedly speaks the Chinese language fluently. The joke in the English-speaking countries visited by him was that he seemed to be more confident in the Chinese language than in English. His English language is as incomprehensible as the sudden turns in Australian foreign policy introduced by him.
7. The only country not surprised by the Australian foreign policy volte face caused by him is China. It had closely studied him during his long years in Beijing. It had correctly assessed his fascination for China and his seeming contempt for India. His indifference to India was apparent during his first overseas tour. Wherever he spoke, his preoccupation was with Australia's relations with the US and China. Hardly any reference to India.
8. Though there are indications that he would favour India becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council and joining the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) organisation and that he might visit India later this year, he does not envisage any role for India in any new security infrastructure for the Asia-Pacific region. His poor opinion of the ASEAN, the ASEAN Regional Forum,the ASEAN plus three, the East Asia Summit and the APEC was obvious. During his interaction with a select audience in the Brookings Institution of Washington DC on March 31,2008, he indicated his preference for the six-power group----of which China is a member and India is not--- which has been negotiating with North Korea on the nuclear issue being expanded to constitute the hard core of any new security infrastructure for the region.
9. In his interactions at the Brookings,he sought "common ground" between China and the international community in a bid to make the Asian giant a "responsible stakeholder" contributing to a "harmonious" global and regional order. China has always welcomed the emergence of India as a major Asian power, but one rung below it---- not on par with China. Bejing looks upon China as an emerging world power on par with the US and India only as an emerging Asian power on par with Japan. Mr.Rudd seems to agree with this perspective.
10. It has been reported that during his visit to Washington DC, President Bush could not succeed in making Mr.Rudd agree to support the nuclear agreement with India in the NSG. If true, this would put an end to India's hopes of having the NSG restrictions on nuclear trade with India lifted before the end of the term of Mr.Bush.
11. India's action in welcoming a stop-over by the Iranian President Mr.Mahmud Ahmadinejad at New Delhi on his way back to Teheran after a visit to Colombo later this month and New Delhi's strong rebuttal of the remarks of a US State Department spokesperson on the stop-over are a clear indication that New Delhi has come to terms with the ground realities and is trying to restore the status quo ante in India's foreign policy making before the Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh's visit to the US in July,2005, when the nuclear deal was signed. Since then, there have been major distortions in our foreign policy in favour of the US. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of at least some of these distortions? (24-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
IRAN TO TRAIN SRI LANKAN INTELLIGENCE & ARMY OFFICERS
B.RAMAN
(This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of November 13,2007, titled "Iran to Fund Sri Lankan Arms Purchases" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers25/paper2455.html )
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad of Iran is to visit Sri Lanka for two days from April 28,2008, in response to an invitation from President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who had visited Iran in November,2007. His engagements will include the inauguration of the construction of the Iranian-funded ( US $ 450 million) Uma Oya hydroelectricity project at Wellawaya in the Monaragala district. When completed, the project is expected to produce 100 megawatts of electricity. The visit is also expected to result in the finalisation of an agreement for Iranian financial and technical assistance for enabling the Sapugaskanda oil refinery to handle Iran’s light crude. This project is expected to result in a further Iranian investment of US $ one billion.
2. In this connection, quoting Sri Lankan media, the "Teheran Times" of April 20,2008, reported as follows: "Iran will increase its investment in the expansion project of an oil refinery in Sri Lanka up to US$ one billion, Petroleum and Petroleum Resources Development Minister A.H.M. Fowzie said. According to the IRNA office in Tokyo, Fowzie in an interview with Kyodo on Wednesday said: "Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has allocated this amount which would cover 70 per cent of the required investment for the refinery's expansion, in the form of a 10 year loan, with a five year exemption period from payment of the loan's instalments." Fowzie added: "Iran had earlier too provided the oil we need free from interest for four months." According to the report, Iran is the largest provider of crude oil to Sri Lanka. According to the Kyodo report, Managing Director Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) Ashantha De Mel has said that the pilot study for increasing the production of Sri Lanka's only refinery from 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day has been completed by Iranian oil engineers. De Mel added: "Iran would make the major part of the required investment for expansion of this oil refinery (70 per cent) and the CPC would cover the rest (30 per cent)." Fowzie said the project would yield noticeable benefits for its investors. He said: "From the economic point of view my affiliated ministry too is interested in making investments there." According to Kyodo, De Mel who visited Iran in early April 2008, expects the project's executive phase to begin within the next three to four months. Oil experts predict that Sri Lanka's oil refinery would increase its production after the Iranian oil engineers would end their work within the next two to three years."
3. Iran has also agreed to provide low-interest credit to Sri Lanka to enable it to purchase military equipment from Pakistan and China and to train a small group of Sri Lankan Army and intelligence officers in Iran. A team of about 10 officers has already proceeded to Iran for training after a clandestine visit to Sri Lanka by Brigadier Gen. Qassem Suleimani, the Director-General of Iran’s Quds Force, or the Jerusalem Brigade, which is, inter alia, responsible for covert actions against Israel and for liaison with friendly foreign intelligence agencies. He is expected to come again as a member of the entourage of the Iranian President for further discussions on intelligence co-operation between the two countries.
4.According to reliable sources, Israel is reported to have expressed to Colombo its concern over the developing relations between Sri Lanka and Iran and warned that this could come in the way of supply and sale of Israeli military equipment to Sri Lanka in future. It has been reported by these sources that Sri Lanka has already shared with the Iranian intelligence copies of the instructions, training and maintenance manuals of the Israeli equipment purchased by it in the past and allowed some officers of the Quds Force to inspect the Israeli equipment. (23-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
(This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of November 13,2007, titled "Iran to Fund Sri Lankan Arms Purchases" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers25/paper2455.html )
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad of Iran is to visit Sri Lanka for two days from April 28,2008, in response to an invitation from President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who had visited Iran in November,2007. His engagements will include the inauguration of the construction of the Iranian-funded ( US $ 450 million) Uma Oya hydroelectricity project at Wellawaya in the Monaragala district. When completed, the project is expected to produce 100 megawatts of electricity. The visit is also expected to result in the finalisation of an agreement for Iranian financial and technical assistance for enabling the Sapugaskanda oil refinery to handle Iran’s light crude. This project is expected to result in a further Iranian investment of US $ one billion.
2. In this connection, quoting Sri Lankan media, the "Teheran Times" of April 20,2008, reported as follows: "Iran will increase its investment in the expansion project of an oil refinery in Sri Lanka up to US$ one billion, Petroleum and Petroleum Resources Development Minister A.H.M. Fowzie said. According to the IRNA office in Tokyo, Fowzie in an interview with Kyodo on Wednesday said: "Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has allocated this amount which would cover 70 per cent of the required investment for the refinery's expansion, in the form of a 10 year loan, with a five year exemption period from payment of the loan's instalments." Fowzie added: "Iran had earlier too provided the oil we need free from interest for four months." According to the report, Iran is the largest provider of crude oil to Sri Lanka. According to the Kyodo report, Managing Director Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) Ashantha De Mel has said that the pilot study for increasing the production of Sri Lanka's only refinery from 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day has been completed by Iranian oil engineers. De Mel added: "Iran would make the major part of the required investment for expansion of this oil refinery (70 per cent) and the CPC would cover the rest (30 per cent)." Fowzie said the project would yield noticeable benefits for its investors. He said: "From the economic point of view my affiliated ministry too is interested in making investments there." According to Kyodo, De Mel who visited Iran in early April 2008, expects the project's executive phase to begin within the next three to four months. Oil experts predict that Sri Lanka's oil refinery would increase its production after the Iranian oil engineers would end their work within the next two to three years."
3. Iran has also agreed to provide low-interest credit to Sri Lanka to enable it to purchase military equipment from Pakistan and China and to train a small group of Sri Lankan Army and intelligence officers in Iran. A team of about 10 officers has already proceeded to Iran for training after a clandestine visit to Sri Lanka by Brigadier Gen. Qassem Suleimani, the Director-General of Iran’s Quds Force, or the Jerusalem Brigade, which is, inter alia, responsible for covert actions against Israel and for liaison with friendly foreign intelligence agencies. He is expected to come again as a member of the entourage of the Iranian President for further discussions on intelligence co-operation between the two countries.
4.According to reliable sources, Israel is reported to have expressed to Colombo its concern over the developing relations between Sri Lanka and Iran and warned that this could come in the way of supply and sale of Israeli military equipment to Sri Lanka in future. It has been reported by these sources that Sri Lanka has already shared with the Iranian intelligence copies of the instructions, training and maintenance manuals of the Israeli equipment purchased by it in the past and allowed some officers of the Quds Force to inspect the Israeli equipment. (23-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, April 19, 2008
CHINESE LEADERSHIP UNABLE TO CONTROL NEO RED GUARDS
B.RAMAN
It is learnt that the Chinese leadership is facing difficulty incontrolling the Neo Red Guards, who have let loose an anti-foreignersand anti-Buddhists campaign to protest against foreign support to thefreedom struggle of the Tibetans and against the attacks on theOlympic Flame during its recent passage through London and Paris.
2. Whereas the protests in China are till now directed only againstthe French, the protests by the overseas Chinese are directed againstthe authorities of the UK, France and the US and the media of those countries. It is learnt that the protests inside China as well asabroad are being sponsored and directed by the Ministry of PublicSecurity, which is China's internal intelligence and security agency.Mr.Meng Jianzhu, the Minister for Public Security , is viewed by manyas the head of the new group of Neo Red Guards, which is increasinglydictating the Tibet policy after the uprising began in Lhasa on March10,2008, and from there spread to other Tibetan-inhabited areas ofTibet, Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan.
3.There have been demonstrations against the outlets of Carrefour,the French super-market chain, in Beijing and other Chinese cities. A campaign for an economic boycott of France and French products has also been launched by the Neo Red Guards.
4.Hundreds of overseas Chinese studying or working in the UK, Franceand the US have been mobilised to protest against the recent incidentsin London and Paris during the passage of the Olympic Flame andagainst the attempts to organise similar incidents in San Francisco,which were, however, thwarted by the local authorities. The orchestrated Chinese anger against the Western media has been particularly concentrated against the CNN, which has been accused of anti-Beijing bias in its coverage.
5. According to reliable sources, the Chinese leadership is worried that if these protests continue, it may foul the atmosphere in the months leading up to the Beijing Olympics of August,2008. The Chinese leadership's dream of projecting the Games as a spectacular exercise in international harmony has been badly damaged. Its appeals for cooling the anti-foreigner campaign have had no effect so far. The Neo Red Guards are reportedly of the view that countering what they see as an international conspiracy to bring about a splitting-up of Tibet and Xinjiang from China is more important than holding the Olympics in harmony. They are, therefore, not worried about the likely adverse impact of their campaign on the Olympics.
6.As part of its Patriotic Re-education campaign, the Ministry ofPublic Security has ordered all Buddhist monasteries in the Tibetan-inhabited areas to fly the Chinese national flag side by side with their religious flag. The monks have been resisting this order.The number of arrests so far is estimated to be more than two thousand. These figures include those arrested for their suspected participation in the violent incidents after March 10, those detained as a preventive measure and those arrested for refusing to fly the Chinese national flag.
7. The orders issued by the Ministry of Public Security to fly the Chinese national flag do not apply to the places of worship of the Muslims in the Xinjiang province. (20-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
It is learnt that the Chinese leadership is facing difficulty incontrolling the Neo Red Guards, who have let loose an anti-foreignersand anti-Buddhists campaign to protest against foreign support to thefreedom struggle of the Tibetans and against the attacks on theOlympic Flame during its recent passage through London and Paris.
2. Whereas the protests in China are till now directed only againstthe French, the protests by the overseas Chinese are directed againstthe authorities of the UK, France and the US and the media of those countries. It is learnt that the protests inside China as well asabroad are being sponsored and directed by the Ministry of PublicSecurity, which is China's internal intelligence and security agency.Mr.Meng Jianzhu, the Minister for Public Security , is viewed by manyas the head of the new group of Neo Red Guards, which is increasinglydictating the Tibet policy after the uprising began in Lhasa on March10,2008, and from there spread to other Tibetan-inhabited areas ofTibet, Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan.
3.There have been demonstrations against the outlets of Carrefour,the French super-market chain, in Beijing and other Chinese cities. A campaign for an economic boycott of France and French products has also been launched by the Neo Red Guards.
4.Hundreds of overseas Chinese studying or working in the UK, Franceand the US have been mobilised to protest against the recent incidentsin London and Paris during the passage of the Olympic Flame andagainst the attempts to organise similar incidents in San Francisco,which were, however, thwarted by the local authorities. The orchestrated Chinese anger against the Western media has been particularly concentrated against the CNN, which has been accused of anti-Beijing bias in its coverage.
5. According to reliable sources, the Chinese leadership is worried that if these protests continue, it may foul the atmosphere in the months leading up to the Beijing Olympics of August,2008. The Chinese leadership's dream of projecting the Games as a spectacular exercise in international harmony has been badly damaged. Its appeals for cooling the anti-foreigner campaign have had no effect so far. The Neo Red Guards are reportedly of the view that countering what they see as an international conspiracy to bring about a splitting-up of Tibet and Xinjiang from China is more important than holding the Olympics in harmony. They are, therefore, not worried about the likely adverse impact of their campaign on the Olympics.
6.As part of its Patriotic Re-education campaign, the Ministry ofPublic Security has ordered all Buddhist monasteries in the Tibetan-inhabited areas to fly the Chinese national flag side by side with their religious flag. The monks have been resisting this order.The number of arrests so far is estimated to be more than two thousand. These figures include those arrested for their suspected participation in the violent incidents after March 10, those detained as a preventive measure and those arrested for refusing to fly the Chinese national flag.
7. The orders issued by the Ministry of Public Security to fly the Chinese national flag do not apply to the places of worship of the Muslims in the Xinjiang province. (20-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
AN UNDERTAKER'S PROCESSION FOR THE OLYMPIC FLAME
B.RAMAN
That is what the Chinese wanted.
That is what the Government of India gave to them.
It did well to give to them what they wanted--- an undertaker's procession for the Olympic Flame as it passed through New Delhi on April 17,2008.
This is not the first time the world is going to have an Olympics.
This will not be the last time.
This is not the first time before the Olympics that the flame lit in Olympia in Greece has been taken through different countries---- togive the people of those countries the happy feeling of being associated with the Games.
And this will not be the last time.
But, what the world is going to have in Beijing in August is an Olympics with a difference.
What the world has been having since the flame was lit in Olympia is a flame with a difference.
What New Delhi had on April 17 was not a flame of joy, brotherhoodand harmony, which would make the world look forward to the Games in August.
It was a flame of sorrow, shock, disgust and troubled conscience which made us dread the advent of August.
Sorrow over the death of over a hundred Tibetans in the
Tibetan-inhabited areas of China since March 10----for no other reason than that they demanded their rights in their homeland.
Shock over the ruthless manner in which the Chinese troops killed the Tibetans.
Disgust over the so-called Patriotic Re-education campaign unleashed by the Neo Red Guards and over the vilification campaign against the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan youth, who rose in revolt.
A shocked conscience over the world's inability to go to their rescue.
When an Olympic flame is taken through a city, people in their hundreds of thousands flock to see it.
They cherish memories of the occasion so that they can tell their children and grand-children in the years to come that they were the proud spectators of the flame being taken across the world.
Hardly anybody came to see the flame in Delhi except some Government servants, staff of the Chinese Embassy and communists and their fellow-travellers.
One did not have people in their hundreds of thousands.
Instead, one had policemen and para-military forces in their thousands.
More than were deployed for the visit of President George Bush in March 2006 and for the visit of President Hu Jintao in November,2006.
The flame came to Delhi in stealth, was taken through the city in a procession that resembled the procession to a graveyard and quickly taken out of Delhi to Bangkok.
Planes diverted from Delhi, traffic dislocated, all Tibetans kept under surveillance like the Chinese keep them In Tibet.
And what did the Chinese leaders and officials tell their people through their Government-controlled media.
The flame was received and witnessed by the Indian people in their thousands, who shouted slogans in support of the Olympics and the dearly-loved Chinese people.
China has a Government and a party, which do not have the courage to face the truth.
And, which do not have the courage to tell the truth to their people.
China is a great country with a glorious civilisation.
Its people definitely deserve a Government of which they can be proud and which is loved by all sections of their own people.
It is time for the Chinese people to join hands with each other to strive for such a Government. (19-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
That is what the Chinese wanted.
That is what the Government of India gave to them.
It did well to give to them what they wanted--- an undertaker's procession for the Olympic Flame as it passed through New Delhi on April 17,2008.
This is not the first time the world is going to have an Olympics.
This will not be the last time.
This is not the first time before the Olympics that the flame lit in Olympia in Greece has been taken through different countries---- togive the people of those countries the happy feeling of being associated with the Games.
And this will not be the last time.
But, what the world is going to have in Beijing in August is an Olympics with a difference.
What the world has been having since the flame was lit in Olympia is a flame with a difference.
What New Delhi had on April 17 was not a flame of joy, brotherhoodand harmony, which would make the world look forward to the Games in August.
It was a flame of sorrow, shock, disgust and troubled conscience which made us dread the advent of August.
Sorrow over the death of over a hundred Tibetans in the
Tibetan-inhabited areas of China since March 10----for no other reason than that they demanded their rights in their homeland.
Shock over the ruthless manner in which the Chinese troops killed the Tibetans.
Disgust over the so-called Patriotic Re-education campaign unleashed by the Neo Red Guards and over the vilification campaign against the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan youth, who rose in revolt.
A shocked conscience over the world's inability to go to their rescue.
When an Olympic flame is taken through a city, people in their hundreds of thousands flock to see it.
They cherish memories of the occasion so that they can tell their children and grand-children in the years to come that they were the proud spectators of the flame being taken across the world.
Hardly anybody came to see the flame in Delhi except some Government servants, staff of the Chinese Embassy and communists and their fellow-travellers.
One did not have people in their hundreds of thousands.
Instead, one had policemen and para-military forces in their thousands.
More than were deployed for the visit of President George Bush in March 2006 and for the visit of President Hu Jintao in November,2006.
The flame came to Delhi in stealth, was taken through the city in a procession that resembled the procession to a graveyard and quickly taken out of Delhi to Bangkok.
Planes diverted from Delhi, traffic dislocated, all Tibetans kept under surveillance like the Chinese keep them In Tibet.
And what did the Chinese leaders and officials tell their people through their Government-controlled media.
The flame was received and witnessed by the Indian people in their thousands, who shouted slogans in support of the Olympics and the dearly-loved Chinese people.
China has a Government and a party, which do not have the courage to face the truth.
And, which do not have the courage to tell the truth to their people.
China is a great country with a glorious civilisation.
Its people definitely deserve a Government of which they can be proud and which is loved by all sections of their own people.
It is time for the Chinese people to join hands with each other to strive for such a Government. (19-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, April 18, 2008
CHINA--TIBET: FEAR OF CYBER DEMOCRACY INDUCES MOVE FOR DE-ESCALATION
B.RAMAN
Till now, analysts have been talking and writing only of the dangersof cyber-terrorism to States and civil societies.
2. China has, for the first time, experienced the lethal force ofCyber Democracy and has started showing signs of fears of its likelyimpact on the stability of the authoritarian Chinese State and itsclosely-controlled civil society.
3. The uprising of large sections of the Tibetans against what theyperceive as the Han colonisation of their traditional homeland andsuppression of their Buddhist religion, which started in Lhasa onMarch 10,2008, and has been continuing since then in various forms,has been planned and orchestrated by Tibetan youth located indifferent parts of the world. Hundreds of Tibetan youth living indifferent democratic countries, who had never met each other and whocame to know each other only through Internet chat rooms anddiscussion groups, pooled their ideas together and decided to takeadvantage of the year of the Beijing Olympics to launch a movement forTibetan independence and democracy under the leadership of the TibetanYouth Congress (TYC).
4. Even if the movement is ultimately crushed after a few weeks byChina's Neo Red Guards, who are dictating the policy on Tibet, withthe help of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the third TibetanUprising of 2008--- the earlier two having taken place in the 1950sand the 1980s--- will go down in history as the first people'srevolution made possible by the power of the Internet's connectivity.This revolution might be crushed ultimately by the PLA, but neitherthe PLA nor the Chinese intelligence will be able to eradicate thispower.
5.Not only the Chinese, but even His Holiness the Dalai Lama and hisclose advisers were taken totally by surprise by the manner in whichyoung Tibetan boys and girls---- with the help of their youngnon-Tibetan friends in different civil societies--- planned thisuprising sitting behind their personal computers and had their plansexecuted.
6. The Chinese as well as His Holiness and his advisers are worriedover the dilution of their control over the youth and its implicationsfor the future of Tibet. His Holiness was in favour of only a peacefulmovement coinciding with the Olympics in support of the ethnic andreligious rights of the Tibetans. He did not want an anti-BeijingOlympics movement, but young Tibetan boys and girls, wielding thepower of the Internet, turned it into a global movement against theBeijing Olympics. His repeated appeals against any attempts tosabotage the Olympics have fallen on deaf ears till now.
7. The initial Chinese response was to close down all servers beingused by the Tibetans and try to impose an iron curtain on theInternet. They found this very difficult to achieve. There wereseepages through the Iron Curtain They realised that the Iron Curtain,which served the purpose of the USSR, cannot serve the purpose of theChinese State in this age of the Internet.
8. The Ministry of Public Security, which is China's internalintelligence and security agency, then decided to counter-attack theTibetan youth and their foreign supporters doing unto them what theywere doing unto the Chinese. Young Internet-literate Chinese boys andgirls, not only in the overseas Chinese diaspora,, but also in theChinese civil society were mobilised to unleash a counter-campaignagainst the Tibetan youth and their foreign supporters.
9. Young Chinese boys and girls, who were indignant over what they sawas acts of anti-Han brutality of the Tibetans and the distortedprojection of the events by the Western media and human rightsorganisations, joined in the Internet-based campaign against theTibetans and their foreign supporters. The outpouring of theirpatriotism was as impressive as the outpouring of the patriotism ofthe American people after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the UShomeland by Al Qaeda.
10. The beginning of the patriotic campaign was state-inspired anddirected, but after a few days, it assumed a momentum, direction andflavour of its own.There were indications of a xenophobia and all thecontrols, which the Chinese State had been exercising on the use ofthe Internet, started showing signs of melting away. The moderatorsnominated by the Ministry of Public Security to moderate thisInternet-based campaign and to prevent it from taking directions whichcould be detrimental to the Chinese State, found themselves unable tomoderate effectively.
11.Fears that the exercise in controlled Cyber Psywar launched by theMinistry could turn into an uncontrollable exercise in CyberDemocracy with criticism of not only the Tibetans and their foreignsupporters, but also of the Chinese leadership itself for lettingitself be taken by surprise have caused the Chinese authorities to tryto apply brakes on the campaign. The Chinese are also worried that themounting anti-foreigner feelings as a result of this Internet-basedcampaign might lead to unpleasant incidents against foreigners duringthe Olympics.
12.The Ministry of Public Security and the offices of the CommunistParty in different parts of the country have reportedly been tellingthe young Chinese that they have achieved their patriotic purpose andthat it is now time to cool it.
13.But will they be able to? (19-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre ForChina Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
Till now, analysts have been talking and writing only of the dangersof cyber-terrorism to States and civil societies.
2. China has, for the first time, experienced the lethal force ofCyber Democracy and has started showing signs of fears of its likelyimpact on the stability of the authoritarian Chinese State and itsclosely-controlled civil society.
3. The uprising of large sections of the Tibetans against what theyperceive as the Han colonisation of their traditional homeland andsuppression of their Buddhist religion, which started in Lhasa onMarch 10,2008, and has been continuing since then in various forms,has been planned and orchestrated by Tibetan youth located indifferent parts of the world. Hundreds of Tibetan youth living indifferent democratic countries, who had never met each other and whocame to know each other only through Internet chat rooms anddiscussion groups, pooled their ideas together and decided to takeadvantage of the year of the Beijing Olympics to launch a movement forTibetan independence and democracy under the leadership of the TibetanYouth Congress (TYC).
4. Even if the movement is ultimately crushed after a few weeks byChina's Neo Red Guards, who are dictating the policy on Tibet, withthe help of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the third TibetanUprising of 2008--- the earlier two having taken place in the 1950sand the 1980s--- will go down in history as the first people'srevolution made possible by the power of the Internet's connectivity.This revolution might be crushed ultimately by the PLA, but neitherthe PLA nor the Chinese intelligence will be able to eradicate thispower.
5.Not only the Chinese, but even His Holiness the Dalai Lama and hisclose advisers were taken totally by surprise by the manner in whichyoung Tibetan boys and girls---- with the help of their youngnon-Tibetan friends in different civil societies--- planned thisuprising sitting behind their personal computers and had their plansexecuted.
6. The Chinese as well as His Holiness and his advisers are worriedover the dilution of their control over the youth and its implicationsfor the future of Tibet. His Holiness was in favour of only a peacefulmovement coinciding with the Olympics in support of the ethnic andreligious rights of the Tibetans. He did not want an anti-BeijingOlympics movement, but young Tibetan boys and girls, wielding thepower of the Internet, turned it into a global movement against theBeijing Olympics. His repeated appeals against any attempts tosabotage the Olympics have fallen on deaf ears till now.
7. The initial Chinese response was to close down all servers beingused by the Tibetans and try to impose an iron curtain on theInternet. They found this very difficult to achieve. There wereseepages through the Iron Curtain They realised that the Iron Curtain,which served the purpose of the USSR, cannot serve the purpose of theChinese State in this age of the Internet.
8. The Ministry of Public Security, which is China's internalintelligence and security agency, then decided to counter-attack theTibetan youth and their foreign supporters doing unto them what theywere doing unto the Chinese. Young Internet-literate Chinese boys andgirls, not only in the overseas Chinese diaspora,, but also in theChinese civil society were mobilised to unleash a counter-campaignagainst the Tibetan youth and their foreign supporters.
9. Young Chinese boys and girls, who were indignant over what they sawas acts of anti-Han brutality of the Tibetans and the distortedprojection of the events by the Western media and human rightsorganisations, joined in the Internet-based campaign against theTibetans and their foreign supporters. The outpouring of theirpatriotism was as impressive as the outpouring of the patriotism ofthe American people after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the UShomeland by Al Qaeda.
10. The beginning of the patriotic campaign was state-inspired anddirected, but after a few days, it assumed a momentum, direction andflavour of its own.There were indications of a xenophobia and all thecontrols, which the Chinese State had been exercising on the use ofthe Internet, started showing signs of melting away. The moderatorsnominated by the Ministry of Public Security to moderate thisInternet-based campaign and to prevent it from taking directions whichcould be detrimental to the Chinese State, found themselves unable tomoderate effectively.
11.Fears that the exercise in controlled Cyber Psywar launched by theMinistry could turn into an uncontrollable exercise in CyberDemocracy with criticism of not only the Tibetans and their foreignsupporters, but also of the Chinese leadership itself for lettingitself be taken by surprise have caused the Chinese authorities to tryto apply brakes on the campaign. The Chinese are also worried that themounting anti-foreigner feelings as a result of this Internet-basedcampaign might lead to unpleasant incidents against foreigners duringthe Olympics.
12.The Ministry of Public Security and the offices of the CommunistParty in different parts of the country have reportedly been tellingthe young Chinese that they have achieved their patriotic purpose andthat it is now time to cool it.
13.But will they be able to? (19-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre ForChina Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
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