REVOLT IN TIBET---A BLOGGER'S ACCOUNT--4
B.RAMAN
Please visit the following site for a blogger's account of the happenings in Lhasa when its people rose in revolt on March 14,2008.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Zj4pklJBS0g/R9tFeNU0_UI/AAAAAAAAARw/Jdty34J4IPA/s1600-h/IMG_2563.JPG
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies Chennai, He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com )
Saturday, March 15, 2008
REVOLT IN TIBET---A BLOGGER'S ACCOUNT--3
B.RAMAN
Please visit the following site for a blogger's account of the happenings in Lhasa when its people rose in revolt on March 14,2008.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Zj4pklJBS0g/R9p4TNU0_GI/AAAAAAAAAQA/fplITGVNBv0/s1600-h/P1010753.JPG
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies Chennai, He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Please visit the following site for a blogger's account of the happenings in Lhasa when its people rose in revolt on March 14,2008.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Zj4pklJBS0g/R9p4TNU0_GI/AAAAAAAAAQA/fplITGVNBv0/s1600-h/P1010753.JPG
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies Chennai, He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com )
REVOLT IN TIBET---A BLOGGER'S ACCOUNT---2
B.RAMAN
Please visit the following site for a blogger's account of the happenings in Lhasa when its people rose in revolt on March 14,2008.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Zj4pklJBS0g/R9p5ZdU0_HI/AAAAAAAAAQI/LUkXVYlcrWA/s1600-h/P1010746.JPG
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies Chennai, He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Please visit the following site for a blogger's account of the happenings in Lhasa when its people rose in revolt on March 14,2008.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Zj4pklJBS0g/R9p5ZdU0_HI/AAAAAAAAAQI/LUkXVYlcrWA/s1600-h/P1010746.JPG
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies Chennai, He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com )
REVOLT IN TIBET---A BLOGGER'S ACCOUNT
B.RAMAN
Please visit the following site for a blogger's account of the happenings in Lhasa when its people rose in revolt on March 14,2008.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo713QL-DT0BpKI3tgtfYupaxvnNoLy8KwIla28zvtMd-D6N0I6AzJFLoHGPXrNOoEHnZyjyv-nQINBvMeMgmY6fGfD155OnPO7gVhlnsBHKk1L7v1bSuJEgvEsN8vud66brkUiJd4/s1600-h/tIMG_2667.jpg
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies Chennai, He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Please visit the following site for a blogger's account of the happenings in Lhasa when its people rose in revolt on March 14,2008.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo713QL-DT0BpKI3tgtfYupaxvnNoLy8KwIla28zvtMd-D6N0I6AzJFLoHGPXrNOoEHnZyjyv-nQINBvMeMgmY6fGfD155OnPO7gVhlnsBHKk1L7v1bSuJEgvEsN8vud66brkUiJd4/s1600-h/tIMG_2667.jpg
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies Chennai, He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com )
Friday, March 14, 2008
THE SPREADING REVOLT IN TIBET
B.RAMAN
The Chinese media has been silent on the situation in Tibet. In their daily briefings, spokespersons of the Chinese Foreign Office have admitted some protest demonstrations by the Buddhist monks in Lhasa, but have played down the gravity of the situation and have projected it as under control.
2. The only details to the contrary are coming from the CIA-funded Radio Free Asia, foreign diplomats in Beijing, foreign tourists caught up in Tibet, the offices of the Dalai Lama in different parts of the world and the Tibetan diaspora in India and the West. The Chinese have not yet been able to block the Internet as effectively as the Myanmar military junta did when the monks and students staged protest demonstrations in Myanmar last year. As a result, one has been able to get a regular flow of information till the time of writing of this article (10 PM Indian Standard Time on March 14,2008).
3. After allowing for some exaggeration and rumour-mongering in these reports, it is clear that the Chinese military are facing a revolt in Tibet the like of which Tibet has not seen since the Khampa revolt of the 1950s, which was ultimately crushed by the military. Initially, the trouble started with slogan-shouting demonstrations by the monks of three monasteries in Lhasa. They were peaceful and avoided violence. Repeated attempts by them to march in procession were prevented by the police----initially with the use of batons only and subsequently by using tear smoke. On the first three days (March 10,11 and 12), the protests were confined to the monks, with the general population showing little interest.
4. From March 13,2008, sections of the general population of Lhasa, particularly the youth, have joined the protests. Some have been demonstrating on their own separately. Some have joined the demonstrating monks. After the youth came out into the streets, the demonstrations took an increasingly violent turn with targeted attacks on members of the Chinese security forces and Han settlers from outside Tibet. Some Tibetans, who were working for the Government, have deserted their posts and joined the demonstrators. Some Tibetans working in the Police have also deserted their jobs and joined the demonstrations.
5. While the Lhasa Police, which has a mix of Hans and Tibetans, kept its cool and avoided using excessive force, Chinese army units, which consist mostly of Hans, lost their cool and opened fire on the demonstrators twice, resulting in at least two deaths. This infuriated the local people. More Tibetans joined the demonstrations and set fire to at least three military vehicles.
6. Initially, the monks were merely shouting slogans praising the Dalai Lama and calling for the independence of Tibet. The youth, who joined subsequently, shouted slogans against the railway line to Lhasa alleging that it was constructed with forced Tibetan labour and that many of them were killed during the construction. They were also demanding the release of the Panchen Lama designated by the Dalai Lama in accordance with the Tibetan traditions. He has been arrested by the Chinese authorities and replaced by a nominee of the Communist Party.
7. Most of the demonstrators have left the streets at the time of the writing of this report. Lhasa is relatively calm and the streets are deserted but for the security forces, who are patrolling intensely.It remains to be seen whether they demonstrate again tomorrow.
8. News of the firing incidents in Lhasa and the deaths have resulted in protest demonstrations in the rural areas too. The trouble is spreading from Lhasa to the interior areas.
9. The Chinese have been totally taken by surprise and highly embarrassed. During the last one year or more, they had sponsored the visits of many foreign journalists, including from India, to Tibet by the newly-constructed railway line. Some of these journalists duly impressed by what they were shown painted an idyllic picture of Tibet under the Chinese rule.
10. The Chinese authorities are reportedly worried that similar demonstrations might break out in the Xinjiang region, where the security forces have been put on stand-by alert.
11. In the meanwhile, elements identified with the Falun Gong have been spreading allegations that the infrastructure for the Olympics in Beijing were constructed with forced labour brought from the interior provinces and that many of them died in accidents and due to the harsh winter. They are trying to stir up demonstrations by these workers and their relatives in Beijing.
LATEST: THE CHINESE SEEM TO HAVE BLOCKED THE INTERNET IN TIBET EFFECTIVELY. TIBET IS CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD. (13-3-08, 11-30 pm IST)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The Chinese media has been silent on the situation in Tibet. In their daily briefings, spokespersons of the Chinese Foreign Office have admitted some protest demonstrations by the Buddhist monks in Lhasa, but have played down the gravity of the situation and have projected it as under control.
2. The only details to the contrary are coming from the CIA-funded Radio Free Asia, foreign diplomats in Beijing, foreign tourists caught up in Tibet, the offices of the Dalai Lama in different parts of the world and the Tibetan diaspora in India and the West. The Chinese have not yet been able to block the Internet as effectively as the Myanmar military junta did when the monks and students staged protest demonstrations in Myanmar last year. As a result, one has been able to get a regular flow of information till the time of writing of this article (10 PM Indian Standard Time on March 14,2008).
3. After allowing for some exaggeration and rumour-mongering in these reports, it is clear that the Chinese military are facing a revolt in Tibet the like of which Tibet has not seen since the Khampa revolt of the 1950s, which was ultimately crushed by the military. Initially, the trouble started with slogan-shouting demonstrations by the monks of three monasteries in Lhasa. They were peaceful and avoided violence. Repeated attempts by them to march in procession were prevented by the police----initially with the use of batons only and subsequently by using tear smoke. On the first three days (March 10,11 and 12), the protests were confined to the monks, with the general population showing little interest.
4. From March 13,2008, sections of the general population of Lhasa, particularly the youth, have joined the protests. Some have been demonstrating on their own separately. Some have joined the demonstrating monks. After the youth came out into the streets, the demonstrations took an increasingly violent turn with targeted attacks on members of the Chinese security forces and Han settlers from outside Tibet. Some Tibetans, who were working for the Government, have deserted their posts and joined the demonstrators. Some Tibetans working in the Police have also deserted their jobs and joined the demonstrations.
5. While the Lhasa Police, which has a mix of Hans and Tibetans, kept its cool and avoided using excessive force, Chinese army units, which consist mostly of Hans, lost their cool and opened fire on the demonstrators twice, resulting in at least two deaths. This infuriated the local people. More Tibetans joined the demonstrations and set fire to at least three military vehicles.
6. Initially, the monks were merely shouting slogans praising the Dalai Lama and calling for the independence of Tibet. The youth, who joined subsequently, shouted slogans against the railway line to Lhasa alleging that it was constructed with forced Tibetan labour and that many of them were killed during the construction. They were also demanding the release of the Panchen Lama designated by the Dalai Lama in accordance with the Tibetan traditions. He has been arrested by the Chinese authorities and replaced by a nominee of the Communist Party.
7. Most of the demonstrators have left the streets at the time of the writing of this report. Lhasa is relatively calm and the streets are deserted but for the security forces, who are patrolling intensely.It remains to be seen whether they demonstrate again tomorrow.
8. News of the firing incidents in Lhasa and the deaths have resulted in protest demonstrations in the rural areas too. The trouble is spreading from Lhasa to the interior areas.
9. The Chinese have been totally taken by surprise and highly embarrassed. During the last one year or more, they had sponsored the visits of many foreign journalists, including from India, to Tibet by the newly-constructed railway line. Some of these journalists duly impressed by what they were shown painted an idyllic picture of Tibet under the Chinese rule.
10. The Chinese authorities are reportedly worried that similar demonstrations might break out in the Xinjiang region, where the security forces have been put on stand-by alert.
11. In the meanwhile, elements identified with the Falun Gong have been spreading allegations that the infrastructure for the Olympics in Beijing were constructed with forced labour brought from the interior provinces and that many of them died in accidents and due to the harsh winter. They are trying to stir up demonstrations by these workers and their relatives in Beijing.
LATEST: THE CHINESE SEEM TO HAVE BLOCKED THE INTERNET IN TIBET EFFECTIVELY. TIBET IS CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD. (13-3-08, 11-30 pm IST)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, March 13, 2008
THE PRE-OLYMPICS GREAT GAME
B.RAMAN
"The Chinese were also worried that if the saffron revolution succeeded in Myanmar, it could next spread to Tibet........Sections of Burmese political exiles have been advocating that the US should also use the Beijing Olympics for keeping up pressure on China to make the Junta change its policies. Non-governmental elements in the US and West Europe have already been linking the human rights issue in Darfur in the Sudan and Tibet to the Olympics. They want that the issue of Chinese support to the Myanmar Junta should also be linked. They feel that while a call for the boycott of the Olympics by the participating Western countries would not work, a call for the boycott of the Olympics by the Western media in protest against Chinese policies in respect of Darfur, Tibet and Myanmar might. They want that even if the Western media is disinclined to boycott the Olympics, it could at least down-grade the coverage of the Olympics. These Myanmar exiles are also considering the issue of an appeal to foreign tourists not to go to Beijing to watch the games."
Extract from my article dated December 5,2007, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers25/paper2489.html
----------------------------------------------------
Intelligence agencies in China, India, Nepal and other countries seem to have been taken by surprise by the simultaneous protests launched by Tibetans, not only in India, Nepal and the rest of the world wherever there is a Tibetan diaspora, but also in Tibet itself over the continued violation of the human rights of the Tibetans by China. The protest demonstrations broke out on the 49th anniversary of the collapse of the Khampa revolt on March 10,1959, which resulted in the flight of the Dalai Lama to India from Tibet.
2.One of the objectives of the demonstrators is to draw attention to the human rights situation in Tibet as the organisers of the Beijing Olympics are getting ready for taking the Olympic flame from Athens across the countries on the ancient Silk Route. The flame is scheduled to pass through Islamabad and New Delhi on April 16 and 17,2008. The Chinese also propose to take it to the top of the Mount Everest to highlight their professed pacification of Tibet and its economic and social development. The Tibetans are determined to disprove Chinese claims of having pacified Tibet by organising a series of demonstrations and protest rallies all over the world in the period preceding the Olympics.
3. While some form of Tibetan activism in the months preceding the Olympics was expected and the Chinese were mentally prepared for it, the widespread manifestations of this activism has been a matter of surprise. Of greater surprise and concern to the Chinese was the outbreak of demonstrations and rallies by Tibetan monks in Lhasa, who have been out in the streets for the last three days, trying to march to the old Potala Palace of the Dalai Lama. The Chinese Police have repeatedly used tear gas to prevent their march. The demonstrations by the monks and others in Lhasa----synchronised with the demonstrations in other countries, where there is a Tibetan diaspora, including India--- indicate strongly that these demonstrations are only partly spontaneous. There is also an element of orchestration by the Tibetans abroad with the help of the human rights groups in the West, which have been wanting to use Tibet as one of the issues to beat the Chinese with in the year of the Olympics.
4. Interestingly, the news of the demonstrations in Lhasa was first broken by Radio Free Asia, the CIA-funded radio station, which was started under the Clinton Administration, to use against China, North Korea and Myanmar PSYWAR methods similar to those used against the USSR and other Communist countries of East Europe by the CIA-funded Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty in Munich. After the collapse of the Communist regimes in East Europe, Radio Free Europe started functioning in Asia under the name Radio Free Asia. Radio Liberty was shifted to Prague to carry on PSYWAR against Russia and Iran. While Radio Liberty played an active role in fomenting anti-Russia agitations in Ukraine, it has not been that successful against Iran so far. Radio Free Asia, which provided PSYWAR support to the monks and students of Myanmar during their agitation against the miluitary junta last year, is now providing similar PSYWAR support to the Tibetans agitating in Tibet and elsewhere.
5. In India, the response to this campaign has taken the form of an announced march by a group of about 100 Tibetans from Dharamsala, the headquarters of the Dalai Lama, to Tibet. The Government of India has done well to ban this march, but despite this, the Tibetans are likely to create difficulties during the passage of the Olympic flame through Delhi. The Chinese were originally planning to invite some foreign tourists to Tibet to witness the flame being carried to the top of the Everest, but they have now given up the idea and banned the visit of foreign tourists to the foothills of the Everest on their side till the flame was taken up and brought back and taken out of Tibet by Chinese mountaineers.
6. I have been a strong critic of the Govt. of India's recognising Tibet as an integral part of China without insisting on a quid pro quo in the form of the Chinese recognising Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India. I have been a great admirer of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans and a supporter of their human rights. I have also been a strong critic of the Chinese action in imprisoning the Panchen Lama duly appointed by the Dalai Lama in accordance with the Tibetan traditions and replacing him with a bogus Panchen Lama named by the Communist Party. At the same time, I have been of the view that we should not do anything, which might create even the slighest suspicion that our Tibetan policy is influenced by US ideas and machinations. It should be our policy influenced solely by our interests and not by US interests.
7.There is a complex Great Game on the horizon as the Beijing Olympics approach. While the US State Department has toned down the criticism of the human rights situation in China in its annual report on the State of Human Rights in the world, the non-Governmental organisations in the US have stepped up their demonisation of China on this issue. If the US is prepared to use the Olympics card against China, Beijing is prepared to play the North Korean nuclear card and the Myanmar card against the US. After being co-operative in the six-party talks on the nuclear issue, Noth Korea has changed gears and is delaying the fulfillment of its commitment to share information about its nuclear capabilities. After showing some flexibility last year and receptivity to international concerns, the military junta in Myanmar is again back to its old game of rejecting international concerns with scorn. North Korea and Myanmar would not have reverted back to their rigid positions without a nod from Beijing. China feels its policy activism on North Korea and Myanmar to meet US concerns has not had a quid pro quo from the US in the form of discouraging the attempts mounted from US soil to politicise the Games and create an embarrassment for the Chinese leadership not only in the eyes of the international community, but also in the eyes of its own people.
8. India should keep out of this Great Game. The Olympic Games has been a matter of intense national pride for the Chinese people. We should refrain from any action which might hurt their pride. The Dalai Lama must be advised to cool it and not to give the impression of letting himself be used by anti-China elements in the US. The Tibetans should not be allowed to disrupt the passage of the Olympic flame through New Delhi. (13-3-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariatr, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
"The Chinese were also worried that if the saffron revolution succeeded in Myanmar, it could next spread to Tibet........Sections of Burmese political exiles have been advocating that the US should also use the Beijing Olympics for keeping up pressure on China to make the Junta change its policies. Non-governmental elements in the US and West Europe have already been linking the human rights issue in Darfur in the Sudan and Tibet to the Olympics. They want that the issue of Chinese support to the Myanmar Junta should also be linked. They feel that while a call for the boycott of the Olympics by the participating Western countries would not work, a call for the boycott of the Olympics by the Western media in protest against Chinese policies in respect of Darfur, Tibet and Myanmar might. They want that even if the Western media is disinclined to boycott the Olympics, it could at least down-grade the coverage of the Olympics. These Myanmar exiles are also considering the issue of an appeal to foreign tourists not to go to Beijing to watch the games."
Extract from my article dated December 5,2007, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers25/paper2489.html
----------------------------------------------------
Intelligence agencies in China, India, Nepal and other countries seem to have been taken by surprise by the simultaneous protests launched by Tibetans, not only in India, Nepal and the rest of the world wherever there is a Tibetan diaspora, but also in Tibet itself over the continued violation of the human rights of the Tibetans by China. The protest demonstrations broke out on the 49th anniversary of the collapse of the Khampa revolt on March 10,1959, which resulted in the flight of the Dalai Lama to India from Tibet.
2.One of the objectives of the demonstrators is to draw attention to the human rights situation in Tibet as the organisers of the Beijing Olympics are getting ready for taking the Olympic flame from Athens across the countries on the ancient Silk Route. The flame is scheduled to pass through Islamabad and New Delhi on April 16 and 17,2008. The Chinese also propose to take it to the top of the Mount Everest to highlight their professed pacification of Tibet and its economic and social development. The Tibetans are determined to disprove Chinese claims of having pacified Tibet by organising a series of demonstrations and protest rallies all over the world in the period preceding the Olympics.
3. While some form of Tibetan activism in the months preceding the Olympics was expected and the Chinese were mentally prepared for it, the widespread manifestations of this activism has been a matter of surprise. Of greater surprise and concern to the Chinese was the outbreak of demonstrations and rallies by Tibetan monks in Lhasa, who have been out in the streets for the last three days, trying to march to the old Potala Palace of the Dalai Lama. The Chinese Police have repeatedly used tear gas to prevent their march. The demonstrations by the monks and others in Lhasa----synchronised with the demonstrations in other countries, where there is a Tibetan diaspora, including India--- indicate strongly that these demonstrations are only partly spontaneous. There is also an element of orchestration by the Tibetans abroad with the help of the human rights groups in the West, which have been wanting to use Tibet as one of the issues to beat the Chinese with in the year of the Olympics.
4. Interestingly, the news of the demonstrations in Lhasa was first broken by Radio Free Asia, the CIA-funded radio station, which was started under the Clinton Administration, to use against China, North Korea and Myanmar PSYWAR methods similar to those used against the USSR and other Communist countries of East Europe by the CIA-funded Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty in Munich. After the collapse of the Communist regimes in East Europe, Radio Free Europe started functioning in Asia under the name Radio Free Asia. Radio Liberty was shifted to Prague to carry on PSYWAR against Russia and Iran. While Radio Liberty played an active role in fomenting anti-Russia agitations in Ukraine, it has not been that successful against Iran so far. Radio Free Asia, which provided PSYWAR support to the monks and students of Myanmar during their agitation against the miluitary junta last year, is now providing similar PSYWAR support to the Tibetans agitating in Tibet and elsewhere.
5. In India, the response to this campaign has taken the form of an announced march by a group of about 100 Tibetans from Dharamsala, the headquarters of the Dalai Lama, to Tibet. The Government of India has done well to ban this march, but despite this, the Tibetans are likely to create difficulties during the passage of the Olympic flame through Delhi. The Chinese were originally planning to invite some foreign tourists to Tibet to witness the flame being carried to the top of the Everest, but they have now given up the idea and banned the visit of foreign tourists to the foothills of the Everest on their side till the flame was taken up and brought back and taken out of Tibet by Chinese mountaineers.
6. I have been a strong critic of the Govt. of India's recognising Tibet as an integral part of China without insisting on a quid pro quo in the form of the Chinese recognising Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India. I have been a great admirer of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans and a supporter of their human rights. I have also been a strong critic of the Chinese action in imprisoning the Panchen Lama duly appointed by the Dalai Lama in accordance with the Tibetan traditions and replacing him with a bogus Panchen Lama named by the Communist Party. At the same time, I have been of the view that we should not do anything, which might create even the slighest suspicion that our Tibetan policy is influenced by US ideas and machinations. It should be our policy influenced solely by our interests and not by US interests.
7.There is a complex Great Game on the horizon as the Beijing Olympics approach. While the US State Department has toned down the criticism of the human rights situation in China in its annual report on the State of Human Rights in the world, the non-Governmental organisations in the US have stepped up their demonisation of China on this issue. If the US is prepared to use the Olympics card against China, Beijing is prepared to play the North Korean nuclear card and the Myanmar card against the US. After being co-operative in the six-party talks on the nuclear issue, Noth Korea has changed gears and is delaying the fulfillment of its commitment to share information about its nuclear capabilities. After showing some flexibility last year and receptivity to international concerns, the military junta in Myanmar is again back to its old game of rejecting international concerns with scorn. North Korea and Myanmar would not have reverted back to their rigid positions without a nod from Beijing. China feels its policy activism on North Korea and Myanmar to meet US concerns has not had a quid pro quo from the US in the form of discouraging the attempts mounted from US soil to politicise the Games and create an embarrassment for the Chinese leadership not only in the eyes of the international community, but also in the eyes of its own people.
8. India should keep out of this Great Game. The Olympic Games has been a matter of intense national pride for the Chinese people. We should refrain from any action which might hurt their pride. The Dalai Lama must be advised to cool it and not to give the impression of letting himself be used by anti-China elements in the US. The Tibetans should not be allowed to disrupt the passage of the Olympic flame through New Delhi. (13-3-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariatr, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, March 10, 2008
PAKISTAN: COMING TO TERMS WITH REALITY
B.RAMAN
Mr.Asif Ali Zardari, the acting Chairman of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), and Mr.Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister and President of the main faction of the Pakistan Muslim League called PML (N), signed on March 9,2008, an important power-sharing agreement to pave the way for the formation of coalition governments at the centre in Islamabad and in Punjab.
2. Under this agreement, while the PPP would head the Government at the Centre with the PML (N) joining it as an equal partner, the PML (N) would head the provincial Government in Punjab with the PPP joining it as an equal partner.
3.Till March 9, Nawaz was imposing two conditions for joining the coalition at the centre. The first was that his representatives in the Cabinet would not agree to be sworn in by President Pervez Musharraf, whom they regarded as illegally holding the office of the President. As a way out, it was being suggested by them that Musharraf could go on pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia and that , during his absence, Mohammedmian Soomro, the Chairman of the Senate, who will be the acting President, can swear in the Cabinet.
4. The second condition being imposed by Nawaz was that there should be a prior commitment by Zardari that former Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammad Chaudhury and other judges sacked by Musharraf after imposing a State of Emergency on November 3,2007, would be reinstated. Zardari was disinclined to accept this suggestion. Instead, he was suggesting that the matter should be left to the collective wisdom of the Parliament to decide.
5. The agreement signed on March 9,2008, marks a climb-down by Nawaz on both these issues. He is now agreeable to letting his party's Ministers in the central Cabinet being sworn in by Musharraf. He has agreed that the new Parliament would pass a resolution, within 30 days of the new Government assuming office, calling for the reinstatement of the sacked Chief Justice and Judges.
6. A resolution does not mean that the sacked judges would be automatically re-instated. All it means is that the PPP Prime Minister would, on the basis of the resolution, recommend to Musharraf the re-instatement of the sacked judges. Nothing can be done against Musharraf if he chooses to ignore the recommendation or rejects it. The Senate, the upper House of the Parliament, was constituted by Musharraf in 2003. His supporters control it. Six of his supporters belonging to the PML (Qaide Azam), his creation, have defected and formed their own bloc, which would support PML (N). Despite their desertion, Musharraf's supporters still control the Senate for which fresh elections are due only in 2009. Unless there are more desertions from the ranks of Musharraf's supporters in the Senate, Musharraf cannot be removed by impeachment. The Constitution of 1973 clearly lays down that for impeachment to take effect, the resolution recommending it should be passed by the two Houses of the Parliament sitting together in a joint session, with more than two-thirds of the total membership of the two Houses voting for it.
7. The opponents of Musharraf do not have the numbers in favour of impeachment till now. The only option left to Nawaz in these circumstances is to keep humiliating Musharraf in the hope that he would himself get disgusted and quit. Musharraf, the commando that he is, is determined to fight it out for as long as he can.
8. Analyses by many analysts in Pakistan as well as in India and other countries that Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), has started asserting himelf and marking his distance from Musharraf added to the rigidity of Nawaz. These analyses were based on the fact that before the elections of February 18,2008, Kiyani had issued a circular forbidding his officers from having any contacts with political leaders and that he had started withdrawing from civilian departments serving military officers working there. These analyses had overlooked the fact that such circulars were routine and had had been issued periodically even by the predecessors of Kiyani, including by Musharraf himself. One might recall that Musharraf, as the COAS under Nawaz before October,1999, had forced his Corps Commander in Quetta to retire prematurely because he had called on Nawaz, the then Prime Minister, without his permission and had not informed him about the meeting after it had taken place.
9. Similarly, there was nothing new or significant in Kiyani's action in withdrawing many serving military officers from the civilian departments. Musharraf himself had sent back to the Army on his own serving military officers working in the Presidential Secretariat after he had shed his dual charge as the COAS and become a civilian President. The civilian Government, which would come to power after the elections, would have ordered the serving military officers in the civilian departments to go back to the Army. Kiyani had merely avoided an embarrassing situation for himself by anticipating this and recalling them back. The largest single group (about 50) of serving officers recalled was working in the offices of the Accountability Bureau and the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), which were looking into charges of corruption against Benazir Bhutto, Zardari, Nawaz and other political leaders. It would have been embarrassing for these officers to continue to perform such duties after the elections. Moreover, many of the corruption investigations were discontinued under the understanding reached by Musharraf with Benazir for a political reconciliation. These analysts did not notice that Kiyani did not withdraw serving military officers working in civilian departments, which had a national security role such as the Intelligence Bureau of the Ministry of the Interior and the Narcotics Control Bureau.
10. The conclusions based on such defective analyses that differences had developed between Musharraf and Kiyani were incorrect. The two have been steadfast friends for many years and this friendship continues. Kiyani had shown many gestures to Musharraf after taking over as the COAS. He agreed to Musharraf's continuing to live in the Army House in Rawalpindi, where the COAS normally lives. Kiyani continues to live in his old house as the Vice-Chief of the Army Staff. While Musharraf stopped going to the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, he retained his camp or residential office in the Army House where he normally attends to all work relating to the Armed Forces in his capacity as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. While he sent back to the Army the serving military officers in the Presidential Secretariat, he did not send back those working in his camp office. While Musharraf gave Kiyani full freedom of action as the professional head of the Army in all matters concerning promotions, postings, transfers, counter-terrorism operations etc, he continued to perform as actively as before his role as the supreme commander of the Armed Forces. Kiyani kept reporting to Musharraf and not to the acting Prime Minister about all actions taken by him before the elections for maintaining law and order and about the progress of the counter-terrorism operations. The statements issued by the GHQ after the meetings of Kiyani with Musharraf specifically mentioned that Kiyani met Musharraf in his camp office in Rawalpindi. He did not meet him in his Presidential office in Islamabad.
11. Despite all this, the persistent speculation in Pakistan and abroad that Kiyani was marking his distance from Musharraf and striking out independently in matters concerning the Army embarrassed both and created a false sense of confidence in Nawaz and his supporters that the Army would not intervene in support of Musharraf if they carried on their campaign for his ouster. In the first week of March, 2008, Musharraf and Kiyani separately of each other sought to dispel impressions of any differences between them. Musharraf did so during a public interaction and Kiyani during a Corp Commanders' conference on March 6,2008. This had a dampening effect on Nawaz and the PML (N) and contributed to Nawaz's climb-down.
12. Despite Kiyan's denial of differences with Musharraf and his re-affirmation of his continuing loyalty to Musharraf, he is unlikely to intervene in support of Musharraf if there is a confrontation between him and Zardari. But the Army as an institution could intervene in support of Musharraf if there is an unpleasant confrontation with Nawaz, who is intensely disliked by senior army officers because of his perceived attempts to humiliate the Army and Musharraf in October,1999, by sacking Musharraf while he had not yet returned to the country from his visit to Sri Lanka, breaking with the traditions of the Army by nominating Lt.Gen.Ziauddin, the then Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), who was an engineer, as the COAS in place of Musharraf and attempting to force Musharraf's plane to land in an airport in India, which senior officers saw as enemy territory. It was the outraged senior Army officers under the leadership of Lt.Gen.Mohammed Aziz, the then Chief of the General Staff, who physically prevented Ziauddin from taking over, arrested him and Nawaz and seized power. Whereas the coups of Ayub Khan and Zia-ul-Haq were staged by them, the coup which gave political power to Musharraf was staged by his senior officers because of their anger over the way Nawaz treated the Army. This anger had been building up since 1998 when Nawaz forced Gen.Jehangir Karamat to quit as the COAS because of his unhappiness over his public statement calling for the setting-up of a National Security Council.
13. The fear that the Army may not remain quiet if he pushed his confrontation with Musharraf and his personal anger against Musharraf to the point of forcing his exit under humiliating conditions has now made Nawaz moderate some of his demands. Zardari has been more mature on some of these issues. He has hinted at his willingness to work in accommodation with Musharraf provided his powers to dismiss the Prime Minister and dissolve the National Assembly are removed. He has also hinted at his willingness to allow some of the new policy-making institutions set up by Musharraf to continue to function--- such as the NSC, an original idea ofd Karamat. He has also avoided calling for any major changes in Musharraf's policy of co-operating with the US in counter-terrorism. He has marked his distance from Musharraf in matters relating to operations against the Baloch militants, but not against Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban. He has been more attentive to the concerns and views of the US and the rest of the West than Nawaz.
14. The US has stopped its public identification with Musharraf and its lionisation of him. The policy of "Musharraf right or wrong" is being slowly jettisoned without seeming to be so. It would like Musharraf to continue in office, but is longer averse to his quitting if this comes about gradually and not in an abrupt manner, damaging the operations against the terrorists. There are three foreign players actively, but discreetly involved in efforts to avoid a crisis in Pakistan---the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has some influence over Nawaz and the UAE over Zardari. Will their efforts to prevent a crisis in Pakistan succeed? It is too early to say. Whether a crisis is prevented or not would depend on the willingness of Musharraf and Nawaz to forget the perceived humiliation, which they suffered at the hands of each other in October,1999. The majority of public opinion in Pakistan would prefer that Musharraf quits, but how to bring it about in a manner that would not damage Pakistan's national interests?
15.Maqdoom Amin Fahim, the Vice-Chairman of the PPP, had visited the US in 2007. During his interactions with the Pakistani community in the US he was repeatedly asked two questions: Why was Benazir not supporting the campaign of the lawyers and Nawaz for the reinstatement of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury? Why was she discouraging her party cadress from joining the public demonstrations on this issue? According to reports carried by sections of the Pakistani media in the US, he replied that Benazir was not convinced that Nawaz was genuinely interested in the independence of the judiciary. Nawaz was hoping that if he succeeded in getting the Chief Justice reinstated, the latter as a quid pro quo would set aside his conviction under the Anti-Terrorism Act in 2000 thereby paving the way for his becoming the Prime Minister again. The Maqdoom also reportedly stated that Benazir was against a street agitation against Musharraf because she feared that such an agitation could lead to one military dictator being replaced by another just as Yahya Khan replaced Ayub Khan.
16. These reservations of Benazir would continue to influence the policies of Zardari and the PPP despite all the bonhomie exhibited for the media cameras at the time of the signing of the joint declaration on government formation on March 9,2008. ( 11-3-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Mr.Asif Ali Zardari, the acting Chairman of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), and Mr.Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister and President of the main faction of the Pakistan Muslim League called PML (N), signed on March 9,2008, an important power-sharing agreement to pave the way for the formation of coalition governments at the centre in Islamabad and in Punjab.
2. Under this agreement, while the PPP would head the Government at the Centre with the PML (N) joining it as an equal partner, the PML (N) would head the provincial Government in Punjab with the PPP joining it as an equal partner.
3.Till March 9, Nawaz was imposing two conditions for joining the coalition at the centre. The first was that his representatives in the Cabinet would not agree to be sworn in by President Pervez Musharraf, whom they regarded as illegally holding the office of the President. As a way out, it was being suggested by them that Musharraf could go on pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia and that , during his absence, Mohammedmian Soomro, the Chairman of the Senate, who will be the acting President, can swear in the Cabinet.
4. The second condition being imposed by Nawaz was that there should be a prior commitment by Zardari that former Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammad Chaudhury and other judges sacked by Musharraf after imposing a State of Emergency on November 3,2007, would be reinstated. Zardari was disinclined to accept this suggestion. Instead, he was suggesting that the matter should be left to the collective wisdom of the Parliament to decide.
5. The agreement signed on March 9,2008, marks a climb-down by Nawaz on both these issues. He is now agreeable to letting his party's Ministers in the central Cabinet being sworn in by Musharraf. He has agreed that the new Parliament would pass a resolution, within 30 days of the new Government assuming office, calling for the reinstatement of the sacked Chief Justice and Judges.
6. A resolution does not mean that the sacked judges would be automatically re-instated. All it means is that the PPP Prime Minister would, on the basis of the resolution, recommend to Musharraf the re-instatement of the sacked judges. Nothing can be done against Musharraf if he chooses to ignore the recommendation or rejects it. The Senate, the upper House of the Parliament, was constituted by Musharraf in 2003. His supporters control it. Six of his supporters belonging to the PML (Qaide Azam), his creation, have defected and formed their own bloc, which would support PML (N). Despite their desertion, Musharraf's supporters still control the Senate for which fresh elections are due only in 2009. Unless there are more desertions from the ranks of Musharraf's supporters in the Senate, Musharraf cannot be removed by impeachment. The Constitution of 1973 clearly lays down that for impeachment to take effect, the resolution recommending it should be passed by the two Houses of the Parliament sitting together in a joint session, with more than two-thirds of the total membership of the two Houses voting for it.
7. The opponents of Musharraf do not have the numbers in favour of impeachment till now. The only option left to Nawaz in these circumstances is to keep humiliating Musharraf in the hope that he would himself get disgusted and quit. Musharraf, the commando that he is, is determined to fight it out for as long as he can.
8. Analyses by many analysts in Pakistan as well as in India and other countries that Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), has started asserting himelf and marking his distance from Musharraf added to the rigidity of Nawaz. These analyses were based on the fact that before the elections of February 18,2008, Kiyani had issued a circular forbidding his officers from having any contacts with political leaders and that he had started withdrawing from civilian departments serving military officers working there. These analyses had overlooked the fact that such circulars were routine and had had been issued periodically even by the predecessors of Kiyani, including by Musharraf himself. One might recall that Musharraf, as the COAS under Nawaz before October,1999, had forced his Corps Commander in Quetta to retire prematurely because he had called on Nawaz, the then Prime Minister, without his permission and had not informed him about the meeting after it had taken place.
9. Similarly, there was nothing new or significant in Kiyani's action in withdrawing many serving military officers from the civilian departments. Musharraf himself had sent back to the Army on his own serving military officers working in the Presidential Secretariat after he had shed his dual charge as the COAS and become a civilian President. The civilian Government, which would come to power after the elections, would have ordered the serving military officers in the civilian departments to go back to the Army. Kiyani had merely avoided an embarrassing situation for himself by anticipating this and recalling them back. The largest single group (about 50) of serving officers recalled was working in the offices of the Accountability Bureau and the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), which were looking into charges of corruption against Benazir Bhutto, Zardari, Nawaz and other political leaders. It would have been embarrassing for these officers to continue to perform such duties after the elections. Moreover, many of the corruption investigations were discontinued under the understanding reached by Musharraf with Benazir for a political reconciliation. These analysts did not notice that Kiyani did not withdraw serving military officers working in civilian departments, which had a national security role such as the Intelligence Bureau of the Ministry of the Interior and the Narcotics Control Bureau.
10. The conclusions based on such defective analyses that differences had developed between Musharraf and Kiyani were incorrect. The two have been steadfast friends for many years and this friendship continues. Kiyani had shown many gestures to Musharraf after taking over as the COAS. He agreed to Musharraf's continuing to live in the Army House in Rawalpindi, where the COAS normally lives. Kiyani continues to live in his old house as the Vice-Chief of the Army Staff. While Musharraf stopped going to the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, he retained his camp or residential office in the Army House where he normally attends to all work relating to the Armed Forces in his capacity as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. While he sent back to the Army the serving military officers in the Presidential Secretariat, he did not send back those working in his camp office. While Musharraf gave Kiyani full freedom of action as the professional head of the Army in all matters concerning promotions, postings, transfers, counter-terrorism operations etc, he continued to perform as actively as before his role as the supreme commander of the Armed Forces. Kiyani kept reporting to Musharraf and not to the acting Prime Minister about all actions taken by him before the elections for maintaining law and order and about the progress of the counter-terrorism operations. The statements issued by the GHQ after the meetings of Kiyani with Musharraf specifically mentioned that Kiyani met Musharraf in his camp office in Rawalpindi. He did not meet him in his Presidential office in Islamabad.
11. Despite all this, the persistent speculation in Pakistan and abroad that Kiyani was marking his distance from Musharraf and striking out independently in matters concerning the Army embarrassed both and created a false sense of confidence in Nawaz and his supporters that the Army would not intervene in support of Musharraf if they carried on their campaign for his ouster. In the first week of March, 2008, Musharraf and Kiyani separately of each other sought to dispel impressions of any differences between them. Musharraf did so during a public interaction and Kiyani during a Corp Commanders' conference on March 6,2008. This had a dampening effect on Nawaz and the PML (N) and contributed to Nawaz's climb-down.
12. Despite Kiyan's denial of differences with Musharraf and his re-affirmation of his continuing loyalty to Musharraf, he is unlikely to intervene in support of Musharraf if there is a confrontation between him and Zardari. But the Army as an institution could intervene in support of Musharraf if there is an unpleasant confrontation with Nawaz, who is intensely disliked by senior army officers because of his perceived attempts to humiliate the Army and Musharraf in October,1999, by sacking Musharraf while he had not yet returned to the country from his visit to Sri Lanka, breaking with the traditions of the Army by nominating Lt.Gen.Ziauddin, the then Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), who was an engineer, as the COAS in place of Musharraf and attempting to force Musharraf's plane to land in an airport in India, which senior officers saw as enemy territory. It was the outraged senior Army officers under the leadership of Lt.Gen.Mohammed Aziz, the then Chief of the General Staff, who physically prevented Ziauddin from taking over, arrested him and Nawaz and seized power. Whereas the coups of Ayub Khan and Zia-ul-Haq were staged by them, the coup which gave political power to Musharraf was staged by his senior officers because of their anger over the way Nawaz treated the Army. This anger had been building up since 1998 when Nawaz forced Gen.Jehangir Karamat to quit as the COAS because of his unhappiness over his public statement calling for the setting-up of a National Security Council.
13. The fear that the Army may not remain quiet if he pushed his confrontation with Musharraf and his personal anger against Musharraf to the point of forcing his exit under humiliating conditions has now made Nawaz moderate some of his demands. Zardari has been more mature on some of these issues. He has hinted at his willingness to work in accommodation with Musharraf provided his powers to dismiss the Prime Minister and dissolve the National Assembly are removed. He has also hinted at his willingness to allow some of the new policy-making institutions set up by Musharraf to continue to function--- such as the NSC, an original idea ofd Karamat. He has also avoided calling for any major changes in Musharraf's policy of co-operating with the US in counter-terrorism. He has marked his distance from Musharraf in matters relating to operations against the Baloch militants, but not against Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban. He has been more attentive to the concerns and views of the US and the rest of the West than Nawaz.
14. The US has stopped its public identification with Musharraf and its lionisation of him. The policy of "Musharraf right or wrong" is being slowly jettisoned without seeming to be so. It would like Musharraf to continue in office, but is longer averse to his quitting if this comes about gradually and not in an abrupt manner, damaging the operations against the terrorists. There are three foreign players actively, but discreetly involved in efforts to avoid a crisis in Pakistan---the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has some influence over Nawaz and the UAE over Zardari. Will their efforts to prevent a crisis in Pakistan succeed? It is too early to say. Whether a crisis is prevented or not would depend on the willingness of Musharraf and Nawaz to forget the perceived humiliation, which they suffered at the hands of each other in October,1999. The majority of public opinion in Pakistan would prefer that Musharraf quits, but how to bring it about in a manner that would not damage Pakistan's national interests?
15.Maqdoom Amin Fahim, the Vice-Chairman of the PPP, had visited the US in 2007. During his interactions with the Pakistani community in the US he was repeatedly asked two questions: Why was Benazir not supporting the campaign of the lawyers and Nawaz for the reinstatement of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury? Why was she discouraging her party cadress from joining the public demonstrations on this issue? According to reports carried by sections of the Pakistani media in the US, he replied that Benazir was not convinced that Nawaz was genuinely interested in the independence of the judiciary. Nawaz was hoping that if he succeeded in getting the Chief Justice reinstated, the latter as a quid pro quo would set aside his conviction under the Anti-Terrorism Act in 2000 thereby paving the way for his becoming the Prime Minister again. The Maqdoom also reportedly stated that Benazir was against a street agitation against Musharraf because she feared that such an agitation could lead to one military dictator being replaced by another just as Yahya Khan replaced Ayub Khan.
16. These reservations of Benazir would continue to influence the policies of Zardari and the PPP despite all the bonhomie exhibited for the media cameras at the time of the signing of the joint declaration on government formation on March 9,2008. ( 11-3-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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