TSUNAMI & HURRICANE SANDY—LEST WE FORGET

 

B.RAMAN

 

Our prayers are with the people on USA’s Eastern Coast who have been living through nightmarish experiences as they are threatened with hurricane Sandy. It has brought life almost to a standstill, but fortunately there has been no humanitarian disaster of the kind that the Tsunami of December 2004 inflicted on the people of Chennai, coastal Tamil Nadu, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Southern Thailand and some of the islands of Indonesia.

2.Barring Indonesia, the rest of the areas were hit by a Tsunami for the first time in their history. Many of us did not even know what had hit us when we suddenly found huge waves taking away thousands of people who were near the sea shore.

3.As I keep reading the Tweets of Barkha Dutt, Group editor of NDTV, who is presently in the Brown University on the Rhode Island, regarding the progress of the hurricane and its feared aftermath and watching  the brave coverage  of  Sarah Jacob of NDTV from the streets and restaurants of New York, my mind goes back to the hours after the Tsunami struck us.

4.Some brave young journalists and officials were the first to reach the affected areas to assist the disaster-struck people and keep the world informed of the magnitude of the disaster. Sheela Bhatt of Rediff.com and Suhasini Haidar, then working for CNN, New Delhi, rushed to the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, which were practically cut off from the rest of India. Barkha Dutt  rushed to coastal Tamil Nadu where  many villages were swept away by the waves and thousands of poor fishermen were killed by the marauding waves. Lyse Doucet of BBC co-ordinated the coverage from all the affected areas---initially from Tamil Nadu and subsequently from Indonesia.

5. Many young officers of the Governments of Tamil Nadu and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands rose to the occasion in a brilliant manner despite the fact that our Governments had never prepared a crisis management drill for dealing with Tsunamis since we had never experienced a Tsunami before. There was  global recognition of the remarkable work done by them.

6.The Indian and US Navies together mounted a massive humanitarian relief operation in south India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia.

7.When memories of the disaster were still fresh, Governmental and non-Governmental organisations  in the US undertook a systematic documentation of the Tsunami experience so that a data-base of knowledge and experience was available for the future.

8.One would have expected a similar exercise to document our Tsunami experience. Unfortunately, we never did it. In 2005, I was associated as Distinguished Fellow with the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) of New Delhi. I proposed to the late Shri R.K.Mishra, the then head of the ORF, that we in the ORF undertake such an exercise. He reacted positively, but I found within six monthsiof the Tsunami disaster a total lack of interest and co-operation for the project, which failed to take off.

9. I do not know whether the National Maritime Foundation of  our Navy has undertaken such an exercise for documentation. If not, it is time for it to do so. ( 30-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

MY TAKE ON THE CABINET RESHUFFLE OF DR.MANMOHAN SINGH

 

B.RAMAN

 

I would like to make the following points regarding the Cabinet reshuffle carried out by the Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh on October 28,2012.

2.The widespread expectations by many, including me, that the reshuffle would have the stamp of Shri Rahul Gandhi have been belied. The reshuffle has the hotch-potch stamp of Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi. It is a play-it-safe reshuffle to carry on the governance without any major political problems till the 2014 elections to the Lok Sabha.

3. Not only Dr.Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, but even Shri Rahul Gandhi and his young aides have chosen to play it safe lest Shri Rahul Gandhi fall flat on his face as he did after the elections to the  UP State Assembly earlier this year. Once bitten twice shy. That has been the attitude of  Rahul. He is still politically diffident and does not want to project himself in the forefront till the political situation turns in his favour. Public perception is still not  in his favour.

4.The most surprising element in the reshuffle is the elevation of Shri Salman Khurshid as the Minister for External Affairs. Shri Khurshid is a gifted individual and Minister who had done well in whatever responsibility was entrusted to him in the past, but he had recently got involved in an embarrassing controversy due to allegations of misuse of funds sanctioned for the welfare of physically disadvantaged people by a Trust with which he and his wife are associated. He and his wife handled  the allegations in a press conference in a shockingly petulant and insensitive manner.

5. His behaviour definitely created considerable embarrassment for the Government and a negative percepton of him even among those well disposed to him. One would have, therefore, felt that Dr.Singh and Mrs.Gandhi would have played it safe by not giving him a prominent portfolio. Their action in giving him the prized portfolio of External Affairs can be explained only from the point of view of a convergence of the interest of both Dr.Singh and Mrs.Gandhi in having him in that portfolio.

6.Since he became the Prime Minister in 2004, Dr.Singh has been playing an activist role in foreign policy matters whether it be in respect of closer strategic partnership with the US or a thaw in the relations with Pakistan despite the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai or co-operative relationship with China despite the continuing border dispute.

7. He chose Shri S.M.Krishna as the EAM because of the confidence that Shri Krishna would let him play that activist role without any friction and that the two would be on the same wavelength on important foreign policy issues. Shri Krishna totally went along with Dr.Singh in all these matters. Dr.Singh has similar confidence in Shri Khurshid.

8. In the case of Mrs.Sonia  Gandhi, it is not so much her confidence in his foreign policy expertise as her gratitude to him for standing by her in public as the Law Minister in the controversy relating to the allegations of wrong-doing made against Shri Robert Vadra, her son-in-law,   by India Against Corruption (IAC) led by Shri Arvind Kejriwal that has played a role for her backing to his elevation. It must be remembered that on the day the IOC publicly made the allegations against Shri Vadra there was total panic in the Congress Party and in the entourage of Mrs.Gandhi.

9. Shri Khurshid stood in the forefront of the Ministers who openly defended Shri Vadra. It would not be wrong to say that his fierce defence of Shri Vadra and his open proclamation of his loyalty to Mrs.Gandhi added to the venom of the IOC against him. Mrs. Gandhi has thus reasons to be grateful to Shri  Khurshid for diverting the fire away from her and Shri Vadra. These two factors have definitely played an important role in his elevation in total disregard of the public perception against him.

10. Will this Cabinet, which is expected to fight the coming elections to the Loh Sabha, be able to avert a defeat in the elections? I will not be surprised if it does. The BJP has been thinking that the allegations of corruption against the Congress alone will bring it down. The history of our elections since 1950 show that allegations of corruption, however serious, are not crucial in determining the outcome. Despite the Bofors controversy, the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi did not do that badly in the 1989 polls even though it failed to secure a majority. The Congress was back in power within two years. All the allegations of corruption and Emergency excesses made against Mrs.Indira Gandhi could not prevent her return to power with a huge majority in 1980.

11. Relentless demonization of political opponents has played a crucial role only in the elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly .Otherwise, the impact of a demonization campaign is generally marginal as we have been seeing repeatedly in Gujarat and in the elections to the Lok Sabha. If the BJP wants to profit from the existing mood against the Congress, it has to project before the people an alternative policy framework. Instead of doing so, it seems to be thinking that it can rout the Congress by harping on the issue of corruption and by demonising the Sonia Gandhi family. It may not work. ( 28-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

TIBETAN SELF-IMMOLATIONS MOUNT, SPREAD GEOGRAPHICALLY AS CPC CONGRESS NEARS

 

 

 

 

B.RAMAN

As the 18^th Congress of the Communist Party of China scheduled to take place in Beijing on November 8,2012, approaches, members of GenNext of Tibetans are desperately taking to more and more self-immolations in an attempt to awaken the conscience of the international community to the plight of the Tibetans.

2. The fact that during the recent three Presidential debates in the US, neither President Barack Obama nor his challenger Mr.Mitt Romney made even a reference in passing to the human rights situation in the Tibetan areas of China has added to their desperation.

3. In the perception of young Tibetans, only the US political leadership and public opinion are in a position to exercise moral pressure on the Chinese leaders to address the human rights concerns of the Tibetans. The almost total absence of any reference to this issue during the current election campaign in the US is driving more young Tibetans to self-immolation.

4. This  week has seen seven self-immolation attempts---- the largest number in a week since self-immolations started in the beginning of last year. Six of them proved fatal--- the largest number of fatalities in a week. Till now, the total number of self-immolations has reached 62 in all the Tibetan areas put together.

5.While the self-immolations continue to be concentrated in the Sichuan province where monks of the Kirti monastery rose in revolt last year against Chinese suppression by taking to self-immolation, it has been spreading to other Tibetan areas too affecting many youngsters who are not  monks. It is no longer a protest movement confined only to the monks.

6.Of the seven incidents reported this week, five were in the Gansu province and two in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). On October 25,2012, two young Tibetan cousins aged 20 and 25 resorted to self-immolation in front of the local school in Driru (Biru in Chinese) in the Nagchu Prefecture (Naqu in Chinese) of the TAR.

7. According to Radio Free Asia, there have been seven self-immolations so far in the TAR—three in Driru, two in  Lhasa and one each in Chamdo county's Karma township, and in the town of Damshung, just outside Lhasa. Tibetans in Driru have been in the forefront of opposition to Chinese rule in the TAR.

8.The same day, two other young Tibetans aged 21 and 25 committed self-immolation in the Gansu province.

9. The Chinese authorities seem to suspect that the spreading self-immolations across the entire Tibetan belt are not spontaneous, but are being co-ordinated by some clandestine organisation. They have announced a reward of US $ 32000 to anyone giving information as to who are behind  the self-immolations. ( 28-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

LULL IN COMMUNAL RIOTING IN RAKHINE STATE OF MYANMAR

 

 

 

B.RAMAN

 

Since the afternoon of October 26,2012, there has been a lull in communal rioting between the Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in the Rakhine State (Arakan ) of Myanmar.

2. The rioting broke out on October 21,2012, reportedly following demonstrations  by some Buddhists against allowing the OIC to open a humanitarian relief office in Yangon. The Rohingya Muslims wanted the office to be opened.

3. Despite opposition from some Buddhists, the Government of President Thein Sein has continued to accept humanitarian relief from the OIC countries for distribution to both the communities. It has been reported that two planeloads of humanitarian relief material arrived at Yangon from Turkey on October 25.

4. According to Government sources, when the rioting broke out on October 21, the security forces found themselves to be inadequately numbered and had difficulty in controlling the situation. Reinforcements have since reached the State and the security forces are now in a better position to deal with the situation.

5. While official statements continue to estimate the total number of fatalities as about 60, the local “Irrawaddy Journal” and the Xinhua news agency of China have estimated the total number of fatalities till the evening of October 26 as 112.

6. According to local sources, the steep increase in fatalities is partly due to the security forces repeatedly opening fire on the rioting mobs from both the communities. It  has been reported that nearly about 2600 houses have been burnt down.

7. Following expressions of concern by Western and UN sources that if the riots continued it could threaten the process of reforms initiated by President Thein Sein and weaken his position, the National League of Democracy (NLD) of Aung San Suu Kyi, which was maintaining a discreet silence till now on the situation, has bestirred itself and urged the  Government to send more reinforcements to the affected areas of Mrauk U, Minbya, Rathedaung, and Kyauktaw townships, north of the state capital of Sittwe, and southern Rakhine’s Kyauk Phyu city and Mebyon.

8.A member of the “Committee of the Rule of Law and Tranquility,” which is chaired by  Suu Kyi, proposed at the Lower House in Naypyidaw on October 26 that the situation  be discussed in Parliament. Following a debate, Parliament approved a proposal to deploy more security forces to the region.

9. The Chinese have been concerned over the spread of the violence to Kyauk Phyu, where a Chinese company has been constructing a port and a gas/oil pipeline to Yunnan to reduce China’s dependence on the Malacca Straits for energy supplies to China. Chinese officials have expressed the hope that the Thein Sein Government will be able to maintain stability in the area. So far, there are no reports of any threats to the Chinese working in the Rakhine State for oil and gas exploration, port and pipeline construction and the construction of a railway line to Yunnan. (27-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

COMMUNAL CLASHES WORSEN IN RAKHINE STATE OF MYANMAR

 

 

 

 

B.RAMAN

 

The fresh communal clashes  between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in the Rakhine State of Myanmar, which broke out on October 21,2012, have worsened despite the induction of security forces reinforcements by the Government.

2. While local Government sources have put the total number of fatalities so far at 20, a despatch of the Associated Press of the US has put it at 56. Local sources say that many of the latest fatalities seem to have occurred due to the security forces opening fire to bring rioters from both the communities under control. Arson attacks at nights have reportedly led to the destruction of nearly 2000 houses so far.

3. The areas worst affected by the violence and arson attacks are Minbyar,Mrauk-U,Kyaukpyu and Kyauktaw. Reports from the affected areas indicate that the security  forces, though inadequately numbered, have been trying to protect the Muslims by opening fire on rioting Buddhist mobs seeking to attack the Muslims. This should account for the sudden increase in the number of fatalities.

4. The National League for Democracy (NLD) of Aung San Suu Kyi  issued a statement on October 25,2012, urging the Government to take further security measures to stop the ongoing violence  and re-establish peace and security in townships such as Kyaukpyu, Minbyar, Mrauk-U and Ann.

5.The 88 Generation Students group also released a statement calling on all people  to work together to resolve this conflict, stressing that a solution must be based on democracy and human rights. ( 26-10-2012)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

NITIN GADKARI,SONIA GANDHI, NAVEEN JINDAL & MITT ROMNEY

 

B.RAMAN

Shri Nitin Gadkari, President of the BJP, and Shri Naveen Jindal, Member of the Lok Sabha belonging to the Congress, are businessmen who have entered politics and have continued to be associated with decision-making relating to their business companies even while playing their political role.

2. Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, President of the Congress, which is in power in the Government of India, is the mother-in-law of Shri Robert Vadra, who has prospered in business after  marrying Ms.Priyanka Gandhi, daughter of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi.

3.Mr. Mitt Romney is a member of the US Republican Party belonging to a well-known business family of Massachusetts. He entered politics to become the Governor of his State. He is now contesting the US Presidential elections against President Barack Obama.

4. Shri Gadkari has got involved in a huge controversy because of his continued association with his business companies when he was the PWD Minister in the Maharashtra Cabinet in the 1990s and now as the President of the BJP.

5. Shri Jindal has got involved in an embarrassing controversy because of his continued association with his steel business even while serving as a Member of the Parliament belonging to the Congress. He has allegedly benefitted from a coal mining block allotted to him by the Government of India.

6. There is nothing wrong in businessmen entering politics provided they do not profit in their businesses as a result of their political position and they do not allow their political role to influence their business decision-making. How to enforce political and business rectitude when businessmen take to politics?

7.It would be useful to make a case study of Mr.Romney in the US. He was associated with some business companies of his State investing in and trading with China. One of the companies was allegedly even dealing with telecommunications which is a sensitive area from the national security point of view.

8.Before Mr.Romney decided to enter politics and contest as Governor of his State, he made a public statement of all his business interests and holdings, formed a public trust in respect of each of his companies and dissociated himself from all decision-making in respect of these companies.

9. Those who had watched the second Presidential debate between Mr.Romney and Mr.Obama, would have noticed that Mr.Obama questioned Mr.Romney’s association with business companies investing in and trading with China. Mr.Romney replied that the  affairs of these companies are managed by a public trust and that he is not associated with their decision-making.  Mr.Obama was satisfied with his reply and did not pursue the matter.

10.In India, huge controversies have arisen relating to the business background of Sri Gadkari and Shri Jindal because they did not dissociate themselves from decision-making relating to their business companies while functioning as political leaders holding key positions. The public perception is and will be that they have benefitted in their businesses as a result of their political role and influence.

11.Shri Gadkari was a public servant when he was the PWD Minister. He is not a public servant now as the President of the BJP. Shri Jindal is a public servant as a member of the Parliament and is subject to the jurisdiction of the Prevention of Corruption Act. Had he been a member of the US Congress and had he been allotted a coal mining block, the legal and public assumption in the US would have been that he did not get the block on merits, but by virtue of his being in the Congress. To avoid such perceptions, all public servants in the US form public trusts of their businesses and dissociate themselves from decision-making.

12. In the case of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the wrong-doing was of a different kind. When the Congress was elected to power in 2004, political rectitude demanded that she should inform all Government departments of the Government of India and all State Governments where the Congress is in power, that her son-in-law is a real estate businessman and he should not be shown any favours because of his being her son-in-law. She did not do so.

13. When the controversy regarding the real estate wheeling and dealing of Shri Vadra recently broke out, she should have immediately written to the Prime Minister to look into all his real estate dealings in which departments of the Government of India and State Governments were involved and satisfy himself that there was no wrong-doing.

14. She did not do that either. Instead, allegedly at her prodding, a number of senior Ministers of the Cabinet of Dr.Manmohan Singh holding sensitive portfolios embarked on a cover-up and damage control exercise to prevent any political embarrassment to her and to deny any criminal liability of Shri Vadra.

15. The controversies relating to Shri Gadkari,  Shri Jindal and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi call for follow-up action at two levels. An enquiry into all allegations made to rule out civil or criminal wrong-doing and introduction of conflict of interest provisions in our laws to enforce rectitude when businessmen want to enter public life. ( 26-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

BUDDHIST-MUSLIM TENSIONS AGGRAVATE IN RAKHINE STATE OF MYANMAR

 

B.RAMAN

The Myanmar Government headed by President Thein Sein is rushing Army reinforcements to the Rakhine State following  a fresh outbreak of clashes between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in different townships of the Rakhine State since October 21,2012.

2.So far, two Rohingya Muslims and one Buddhist have been killed in the clashes and about 1000 houses, mostly belonging to Rohingya Muslims, have allegedly been burnt down, thereby forcing the Muslim residents of these houses to shift to boats.

3. The fresh anti-Muslim campaign has assumed new disturbing features. Buddhist monks have revived their opposition to the Government accepting humanitarian assistance for the Rohingya Muslim displaced persons from the OIC member-countries. Following bitter opposition from the monks, the Government of Thein Sein has reversed its decision to allow the OIC to set up a branch in Yangon. It has now stated that it will allow the OIC to have only a temporary set-up in Yangon to supervise the distribution of humanitarian relief to the internally displaced Muslims and Buddhists in the Rakhine State. The monks are opposing even this and have been insisting there is no need for any humanitarian assistance from the OIC countries.

4.Buddhist students, who took out a procession ( 800) in Sittwe, the capital of the Rakhine State, on October 24,2012, have demanded the introduction  of an anti-Muslim apartheid policy in the local educational institutions. They have been saying that they will not sit in the same classes and stay in the same hostels as Rohingya Muslim students and have been demanding separate classes and separate hostels for the Rohingya Muslims. The Buddhist students, who participated in the procession, denounced the Rohingya Muslims as Bengali terrorists.

5. The Commission set up by the Government to enquire into the causes for the violence since May has not made much headway in its enquiries due to non-cooperation from both the communities.

6. The anti-Government anger of the Muslims of the Rakhine State has started affecting Muslims of sub-continental origin living in Yangon and other cities of Myanmar outside the Rakhine State. Apart from expressing solidarity with the Rohingya Muslims of the Rakhine State, they have been accusing the Government of Thein Sein of failing to give assurances regarding the security of the Muslims living in other parts of Myanmar during the Eid festival on October 26,2012. Muslim groups in Yangon have called for the non-observance of Eid on the ground that the Government has failed to give satisfactory guarantees for their security during the festival.

7. The Government of President Thein Sein is finding itself in a dilemma. It is under growing pressure from the OIC as well as the Western countries to pay attention to the human rights and security of the Rohingya Muslims. At the same time, the anti-Rohingya  demands of the monks and the Buddhist students have public support, even among Buddhist soldiers of the Army.

8. Till now, the Buddhist soldiers of the security forces have remained disciplined and have been complying with the orders of the Government to enforce law and order and to protect the Rohingya Muslims. But will they continue to do so? That is a question that has been troubling the Government.

9. Unfortunately, there is no political leader ---not even Aung San Suu Kyi---- with any influence over the Buddhist monks and students of the Rakhine State who can persuade them to tone down their anti-Rohingya rhetoric and refrain from acts that could further exacerbate the situation. Aung San Suu Kyi continues to maintain a discreet silence on the plight of the Rohingya Muslims lest she lose the support of the Buddhists.

10. The unabated anti-Buddhist anger among the Rohingya Muslims could add to the radicalisation of the Muslim community in the affected region with unpredictable fall-out on the regional  law and order situation. ( 25-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)