Wednesday, July 7, 2010

THE SHADOWS IN J & K

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.664

B.RAMAN


In his message of February 12, 2007, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No.2 to Osama bin Laden, has spoken of a global Jihadi Intifada. Has he spoken of any special areas of focus for this Intifada?

Whenever he talks of a global jihad or now of a global Jihadi Intifada, Zawahiri makes it clear that this has to cover all lands in the world, which rightfully belong to Islam. After saying so, he specifies certain areas, which he thinks should receive special attention first. Of these, he gives the topmost priority to Afghanistan and Iraq. He says the future of Islam and of the global Intifada itself will be decided in those countries. If they can defeat the Americans there, the jihadis' victory in the rest of the lands will be assured. After mentioning these two countries, he mentions certain other areas specifically. He believes that the victory of the jihadis in these areas would also be crucial for the ultimate victory of Islam. These areas are Palestine, including Gaza, the Lebanon, Somalia, Algeria and Chechnya in Russia. He describes Somalia as the Southern garrison of Islam and Algeria as its Western garrison.

What does he mean by Jihadi Intifada?

A kind of struggle in which the role of motivated individual Muslims will become more important than that of organisations so that the weakening or collapse of an organisation does not result in a collapse of the Intifada. He wants the Intifada to acquire a momentum of its own as a result of the sacrifices of individual Muslims...... The importance of a central command and control in keeping the Intifada going is down-played. The motivation of individual Muslims is more important than any centralised command and control. He also projects the Intifada as a mix of military and non-military struggles. He says in his message of December 20, 2006: "We must bear arms. And if we are unable to bear them, then we must support those who carry them. This support comes in many forms and guises, so we must exploit all Dawah, student and union activities to back the Jihadi resistance....... The Muslim Ummah must exploit all methods of popular protest, like demonstrations, sit-ins, strikes, refusing to pay taxes, preventing cooperation with the security forces, refusing to provide the Crusaders with fuel, hitting traders who supply the Crusader forces, boycotting Crusader and Jewish products, and other ways of popular protest."

----- From my article of February 14,2007, titled JIHADI INTIFADA: QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/common/uploaded_files/paper2135.html

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What we are witnessing in certain areas of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) is the beginning of an intifada of Zawahiri's conception as propounded by him in his messages of February 12,2007,and earlier addressed to the Muslims of the world. One does not know whether Al Qaeda has had any role in the current violence in J&K, but its idea that the time had come to transform the jihad characterised by acts of terrorism into an intifada on a global scale characterised by leaderless street violence and the technique of a mix of military and non-military struggles has had some impact on the thinking and behaviour of some sections of the Kashmiri youth.

2. We are confronted with a situation marked by leaders without followers and followers without leaders. The traditional political leaders of J&K have no influence over the agitating youth. The agitating youth have no identifiable leaders to whom an approach can be made by the Government for bringing down the violence. Whatever be the extent of the Pakistani role in instigating the violence, it has acquired a momentum of its own unrelated to Pakistan. Islamabad has been exploiting the violence, but does not seem to be the originator of it.

3. The root cause is the growing perception among some sections of the youth that the security forces have been insensitive in performing their counter-insurgency duties and have been adopting objectionable methods ( e.g alleged false encounters) and using disproportionate force against the people. The current street violence has had no strategic political objective relating to the future political status of J&K. It is the result of an outburst of anger against the security forces. It does not have a strategic direction as yet, but may acquire one if it continues without the anger of the participating youth being pacified by the Government.

4. The anger of the youth might have been pacified initially if the Governments at Srinagar and New Delhi had shown some understanding of the anger and initiated measures to pacify it such as enquiries into allegations of excesses by the security forces, paying greater attention to complaints of violations of the human rights of the people and better ways of dealing with street protestors without using firearms. The succes of the last general elections in which nearly two-thirds of the voters participated and the perception that the ground situation was coming under control created a feeling of over-confidence in the Government at the centre, which slowed down the efforts to find a political soplution to the demands of the people and showed an increased insensitivity towards the anger of sections of the youth against the security forces.

5. The current movement started due to some anger against the security forces. Perceptions of political indifference to that anger has led to the anger turning against the political leadership. We find ourselves caught in a vicious circle. The more the publicly expressed anger against the security forces, the more the force used against the agitators and the more the force used against the agitators, the more the anger against the security forces.

6. When there was a decline in violence and we should have been taking advantage of it to deal with strategic issues relating to the future political set-up, we did not do so. Now, when the immediate objectiove should be to reduce the anger of the moment due to the grievances against the security forces, we are talking of long-term political issues. Better methods of street control to avoid the use of firearms, prompt and satisfactory attention to the complaints of the people regarding excessive use of force and violations of human rights, greater interactions between the Government and the agitating youth, greater control over our rhetoric to avoid demonisation of the agitators and attempts to remove the impression that the Government tends to bat for the errant elements in the security forces and not for the people are some of the immediate steps required. The use of the Army against the street agitators would be unwise unless the situation turms desperate leaving no other option. ( 8-7-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

AL QAEDA & TERRORIST STRIKES IN INDIA

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.663

B.RAMAN

“The Hindu” of July 7,2010, has carried an article by its terrorism analyst Praveen Swami titled “Pakistan’s Competing Jihadists.” The article refers to a message purported to have been issued before his death (confirmed by Al Qaeda) in a US Drone strike in May last by Sai’d al-Masri (al-Masri means the Egyptian) also known as Mustafa Abu al-Yazid. He was reputedly the No.3 in Al Qaeda and was in charge of operations in Afghanistan.

2.According to Shri Swami, an English translation of this message was made available to him “by the Washington DC based Middle East Media Research Institute”. This Institute is popularly known as MEMRI. It is alleged to have close links with the Israeli Military Intelligence and the Likud Party.

3. Wikipedia comments as follows on MEMRI: “The Middle East Media Research Institute, or MEMRI for short, is a Middle Eastern press monitoring organization. Its headquarters is located in Washington, DC, with branch offices in Jerusalem, Berlin, London, Rome, Shanghai, Baghdad, and Tokyo. MEMRI was co-founded in 1998 by Yigal Carmon, a former colonel in Israeli military intelligence, and another Israeli Meyrav Wurmser. It provides a free source of English language translations of material published in Arabic and Persian script, and publishes its analyses and in-depth reports on its website - although it also offers specialized content for a fee. The organization's translations are regularly quoted by major international newspapers, and its work has generated strong criticism and praise. Some critics have accused MEMRI of selectively choosing for translation and dissemination the most extreme views from Arabic and Persian media, which portray the Arab and Muslim world in a negative light, while ignoring moderate views that are often found in the same media outlets. Other critics charge that while MEMRI does sometimes translate pro-US or pro-democracy voices in the regional media, it systematically leaves out intelligent criticism of Western-style democracy, US and Israeli policy and secularism. MEMRI's current mission statement states the organization "explores the Middle East through the region's media. MEMRI bridges the language gap which exists between the West and the Middle East, providing timely translations of Arabic, Persian, Turkish, and Urdu-Pashtun media, as well as original analysis of political, ideological, intellectual, social, cultural, and religious trends in the Middle East." Until 2001, its Mission Statement stated that the institute also emphasizes "the continuing relevance of Zionism to the Jewish people and to the state of Israel." MEMRI's goals and emphasis have evolved over the years; it originally translated articles in both Arabic and Hebrew. Concerning this change in their ‘mission statement,’ Political Research Associates (PRA), which studies the US political right, notes that it occurred three weeks after the September 11 attacks, and considers MEMRI "was previously more forthcoming about its political orientation in its self-description and in staff profiles on its website." PRA considers that “MEMRI's slogan, ‘Bridging the Language Gap Between the Middle East and the West,’ does not convey the institute's stridently pro-Israel and anti-Arab political bias.” It further notes, that MEMRI's founders, Wurmser and Carmon, “are both hardline pro-Israel ideologues aligned with Israel's Likud party.”

4. So far as one knows, the message of al-Masri disseminated by MEMRI has not yet been authenticated by any official Western agency or non-governmental organization studying messages purported to have been disseminated by Al Qaeda, its leaders and as-Sahab, the propaganda wing of Al Qaeda, but one is subject to correction.

5. In its intro to Shri Swami’s article, “The Hindu” says: “ For the first time, the al-Qaeda has claimed responsibility for an attack in India.” “The Hindu’s” reference is to the explosion in the German bakery in Pune on February 13 last. Mr.Swami himself writes in his article as follows: “ For the first time, though, al-Masri referred to the Pakistan-based jihadist Muhammad Ilyas Kashmiri as an official part of the Al Qaeda--- and made public his role in an attack on India.”

6.According to Mr.Swami, the message as supplied by MEMRI says as follows: “ I bring you the good tidings that last February’s India operation was against a Jewish locale in the West of the Indian capital in the area of the German bakeries--- a fact that the enemy tried to hide---- and close to 20 Jews were killed in the operation, a majority of them from the so-called statelet, Israel. The person who carried out this operation was a heroic soldier from the “Soldiers of the Sacrifice Brigade”, which is one of the brigades of Qaedat al-Jihad ( the al-Qaeda’s formal name) in Kashmir under the command of commander Ilyas Kashmiri, may Allah preserve him.”

7. Commenting on the claim made in the message. Mr.Swami says: “ From the text, it is clear that al-Masri had little knowledge of the bombing of the German Bakery in Pune. Pune is not to the west of New Delhi; it is not Jewish-owned; and no Israelis were killed there. There would thus be no reason to take al-Masri’s claims seriously--- if it weren’t for the testimony of Pakistani-American jihadist David Headley.”

8. al-Masri was born in Egypt on December 17, 1955. Along with Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda’s No.2,he was a founding member of the Islamic Jihad of Egypt, which was alleged to have been involved in the assassination of then Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. He was arrested by the Egyptian authorities along with Zawahiri. They managed to escape and reach Afghanistan in 1988 and join Osama bin Laden. When bin Laden went to the Sudan in 1991 after his passport was reportedly cancelled by the Saudi authorities, al-Masri joined him there and was appointed by bin Laden as an accountant of a business company started by him in the Sudan. In 1996, under US pressure, the Sudanese authorities asked bin Laden to leave the Sudan. He went to Afghanistan accompanied by al-Masri. Zawahiri joined them there. The US National Commission, which enquired into the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland, described him as the Chief Financial Manager of Al Qaeda. In May 2007, bin Laden was reported to have designated him as in charge of Al Qaeda’s operations in Afghanistan. In that capacity, he was responsible for co-ordination of operations with the Afghan Taliban.

9. In February 2009, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) had received a message purported to be from Mustafa Abu-al Yazid, warning of more Mumbai-style attacks. The message, whose authenticity could not be established, sought to create an impression as if the 28/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai were carried out by Al Qaeda.

10.I had commented as follows on that mesaage : “ His warnings of more Mumbai-style attacks should be factored into our security arrangements and that means, strengthening physical security not only for possible Indian targets, but also for possible foreign targets such as those of Israel and the US. A rule of prudence is don’t ignore a threat unless and until it is proved to be false. The message needs careful analysis in co-operation with Al Qaeda experts in the US. The message suspiciously serves the Pakistani agenda of projecting the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai as executed by an international jihadi group based in Europe and inspired by Al Qaeda. There are suspicious elements in the message. Why was it disseminated through the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and not initially through Al Jazeera? Why has it not yet appeared in the web sites associated with Al Qaeda? Why there was no reference to the Mumbai attack in the one message of Osama bin Laden and two of his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri disseminated by Al Qaeda since the beginning of this year? Why the message has not been disseminated through As Sahab, the official propaganda organ of Al Qaeda.”



11. Subsequently, in April,2009, another message purporting to be from al-Masri circulated through the Internet. It read as follows: “. “We send a short and succinct message to the Indian Government. The Mujahideen will never allow you to invade the Muslims and their lands in Pakistan. If you beguile yourselves into doing this, know well that you will pay a very heavy price, which you will regret much. We will call upon our whole Muslim nation, its Mujahideen and its martyrdom squads against you. We will strike your interests and your economic lifelines wherever they may be until you are demolished and bankrupt as America is being demolished and going bankrupt today. The Islamic nation which produced the audacious and heroic martyrs of Bombay, who struck you in the midst of your homes and humiliated you, is able to produce thousands more like them. You cannot be more powerful or have more ability than the Soviet Union which was destroyed on the rocks of the Afghanistan mountains nor Americans whose nose we rubbed in the dirt of Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.”



12. This message added to the suspicion that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence might be behind the dissemination of these messages in order to draw suspicion away from the LET for the terrorist strikes of 26/11 in Mumbai. After the Pune Bakery attack, Syed Saleem Shahzad , the Karachi correspondent of “Asia Times Online”, received an E-mail message purporting to be from Ilyas Kashmiri threatening terrorist strikes in India during the World Cup Hockey League and IPL cricket matches as well as during the forthcoming Commonwealth Games. In his dispatch to the Asia Times on this, Mr.Shahzad reported as follows: “ Asia Times Online has received a message from top guerrilla commander Ilyas Kashmiri, whose 313 Brigade is an operational arm of al-Qaeda. The message arrived on Monday morning (Feb.15), shortly after the deadly weekend bombing of the German Bakery in the western Indian city of Pune. The message does not specifically claim responsibility for the bombing, but implies the Brigade's involvement.”

13. Even after the July,2006, explosions in the Mumbai suburban trains, a person, who gave his name as Abu al Hadeed, had rung up the office of the Current News Service (CNS) in Srinagar claiming responsibility in the name of what he described as Al Qaeda of J&K. However, indigenous Kashmiri organisations ridiculed the claim and said that there was no such organisation in the State.

14.On June 8, 2007, the same news agency is reported to have received a statement in Urdu recorded in a CD in the name of one Abu Abdal Rehman al-Ansari, described as the Amir of Al Qaeda fil Hind (Al Qaeda in India). The statement was read out by a masked gunman, who gave his name as Abu Ibrahim al-Asim before a camera. Whereas the 2006 statement was in the name of Al Qaeda of J&K, the statement of June 8, 2007, was in the name of Al Qaeda of India. Both the statements had referred to al-Ansari as the Amir of Al Qaeda. The June 8 statement pledged to wage jihad not only on India, but also against all infidels, apostates and hypocrites and against "enemies masqueradng as friends" . It criticised both the factions of the Hurriyat Conference and the Pakistan-based United Jihad Council headed by Syed Salahuddin of the Hizbul Mujahideen.

15. There are two types of messages purporting to be from Al Qaeda relating to India. The first are video or audio messages of Osama bin Laden and Zawahiri relating to the global jihad and the global intifada in which there are references to India, including Kashmir. These have been authenticated by Western intelligence agencies on the basis of voice recognition. They are in the form of general criticism of India or general threats and not specific.

16. The second are messages claiming responsibility on behalf of Al Qaeda for specific acts of terrorism in India such as the Mumbai suburban train explosions of July 2006, the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 and the Pune German bakery explosion and warning of future acts of terrorism against global sports events in India. These are messages circulated through the Internet or through phone calls by persons whose voices could not be identified. There is no way of establishing the authenticity of these messages. We must take them seriously for further investigation and strengthening physical security. At the same time, we should take care not to walk into any trap of the ISI to divert suspicion away from the LET and other Pakistani jihadi organizations and from the ISI for serious acts of terrorism in Indian territory by creating an impression that those were carried out by Al Qaeda.

17. It is quite possible that there was an active role of Al Qaeda in acts of terrorism in Indian territory, including Jammu & Kashmir. It has been particularly keen to attack Jewish targets in India, including the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi. Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, who had orchestrated the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US, had admitted to have once visited India and had told US interrogators of Al Qaeda’s intention for an attack on the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi. But it is doubtful whether Al Qaeda is as yet in a position to organize a major strike in Indian territory on its own without the collaboration of the LET and other Pakistani organizations. We should not walk into any ISI trap for creating an impression that Al Qaeda has supplanted the ISI’s surrogates such as the LET. ( 7-7-10)



( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

SINGAPORE AND AL QAEDA

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO.662

B.RAMAN



While the main wing of Al Qaeda based in Pakistan’s tribal areas continues to draw its recruits, volunteers and supporters from the Arabic-speaking residents of West Asia and North Africa, with little command of the English language, its branch based in Yemen known as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been drawing its adherents not only from the Arabic-speaking population of the region, but also from the community of Muslims in the English-speaking world who feel more comfortable with English than with Arabic.



2. its recently started English web journal called “Inspire” is directed to the Muslims of the English-speaking world. It will serve the dual purpose of acting as the propaganda journal of AQAP and on line training facility for enabling self-radicalised jihadis in the English-speaking world to acquire expertise in the use of weapons and explosives and techniques of waging a jihad without having to visit the training camps of AQAP in Yemen.



3. The difficulties hitherto faced by self-radicalised Muslims of the English-speaking world due to their poor command of the Arabic language are sought to be removed through ideological and technical manuals and instructions in the English language.



4. The idea of propaganda, ideological indoctrination, motivation and self-acquired expertise through the medium of the English language seems to have been inspired by Anwar al- Awlaki, the ideological mentor of the AQAP, who is of US-origin and reportedly feels as comfortable with the English language as he does with Arabic unlike Osama bin Laden, his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri and other Al Qaeda leaders based in Pakistan and Yemen who feel more comfortable with Arabic than with English. Their poor command of English comes in the way of their direct communications with their followers in the English-speaking world.



5.Under the guidance of Awlaki, the AQAP is seeking to capitalize on the interest of self-radicalised elements in the English-speaking world to take to jihad. An example of such interest has come from Singapore where the local security authorities are reported to have detained for two years under the Internal Security Act a 20-year-old Singaporean Muhammad Fadil Abdul Hamid, who has been described by Singapore’s Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) as a full-time national serviceman in the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF).He was actually detained on April 4,2010, but his detention has been officially revealed only now.



6.News agency reports giving the official account of his detention have given the following details of the case: Muhammad Fadil, who was a student in a local polytechnic before joining the SAF, had been surfing the Internet for jihadist propaganda material. It is not known whether he continued his Internet search for jihadi material even after joining the SAF. Most probably, he did. It is possible his interest in jihadi material had not come to notice before he joined the SAF. Otherwise, if it had come to notice even then, he might not have been taken into the SAF on a full-time basis.



7.According to the news agency accounts, he got radicalized through the Internet, convinced himself of his religious obligation as a Muslim to join other radicalized Muslims for an armed jihad and established online contact with Awlaki and expressed his wish to join him in his jihad. He was also reported to have contacted through the Internet an Al Qaeda recruiter whose identity has not been indicated by the Singapore authorities. He collected material on bomb-making through his Internet search and produced and posted a video justifying suicide bombing.

8.According to Singapore’s MHA, as reported by the news agencies, Muhammad Fadil did not undertake nor did he have any plans to undertake jihad-related activities in Singapore. He intended to pursue such activities in places like Palestine, Afghanistan and Iraq.



9.In response to media queries, Singapore's Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) has stated that Muhammad Fadil was a trainee undergoing section leader training in the Pasir Laba Camp at the time of his arrest. He attended but did not complete his polytechnic course prior to his enlistment for national service in September 2009.



10.According to the MHA, two other Singaporeans have been placed under Restriction Orders (RO) for two years from June 23, 2010. One of them is 44-year-old Muhammad Anwar Jailani, who has been described as an unaccredited religious teacher. He had distributed to his students, contacts and the general public numerous copies of CDs containing audio recordings of Anwar al-Awlaki's lectures, which called on Muslims to undertake militant jihad against non-Muslims and other "enemies" of Islam. The other is 27-year-old Muhammad Thahir Shaik Dawood. He runs a small business and is one of Muhammad Anwar's students who became radicalised mainly through his influence. Muhammad Thahir had allegedly travelled to Yemen to enrol in an educational institution run by an associate of Osama bin Laden. He also sought out Anwar al-Awlaki and other radicals with a view to participating in armed jihad overseas if the opportunity presented itself. While still in Yemen, he began to have second thoughts about the wisdom of undertaking an armed jihad, gave up his idea and returned to Singapore.



11.There are some loose-ends in the official account as given by the Singapore authorities. Some questions remain unanswered. Was Muhammad Fadil connected to these two individuals? When and how Muhammad Anwar developed interest in Awlaki? Was it also through the Internet or whether Awlaki’s men have been visiting Singapore? Did the authorities come to know of Muhammad Fadil’s self-radicalisation and interest in Awlaki independently even before Muhammad Thahir returned to Singapore and was questioned by the authorities or did Thahir tell them about Fadil during his questioning.



12.The case speaks well of the alertness of the Singapore intelligence and security authorities and their ability to detect radicalizing trends before they assume threatening proportions. At the same time, it should be a matter of concern that despite the prosperity of the Muslim community of Singapore and the interest taken by the authorities in promoting their welfare, there are elements which are amenable to extra-territorial indoctrination and inclined to take to jihad. Despite the confidence of the local authorities that Fadil wanted to wage jihad abroad and not in Singapore, one should not lose sight of attempts being made by the AQAP to recruit Muslims who can travel freely across the Western world and use them for acts of terrorism against the West similar to its attempts to blow up an American plane over Detroit in the US on Christmas Day by using a Nigerian student studying in London with a valid visa for the US.



13.Since 2001, Al Qaeda has shown an interest in organizing an act of terrorism in Singapore against a US ship touching at the local port similar to the attack on USS Cole at Aden in October 2000. Self-radicalised volunteers like Fadil would come in handy for such operations. Self-radicalised elements in the Singapore Muslim community may not have any grievance against the Singapore Government and may not let themselves be used by Al Qaeda against Singaporean targets, but they could be brain-washed by Al Qaeda to undertake operations against US or other Western targets in Singapore territory. ( 6-7-10)



( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Sunday, July 4, 2010

PAK LEADERS QUARREL AS LAHORE CONTINUES TO BLEED

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 661

B.RAMAN



An unidentified Barelvi group of Pakistan has disseminated the following through the Internet after the twin suicide explosions in the Data Darbar sufi shrine of Lahore on the evening of July 1,2010, resulting in the death of 42 worshippers, the majority of them reportedly followers of the tolerant Barelvi sect which believes in Sufism : "Extremist Deobandis of the Sipah-e-Sahaba have once again attacked the Data Di Nagri (Data’s city), Lahore. This time their target was the sacred shrine of Hazrat Data Ganj Bakhsh Ali Hajveri, a Persian Sufi and scholar during the 11th century who significantly contributed to the spreading of Islam in South Asia. According to puritanical beliefs of extremist Deobandis and Wahhabis of the Sipah-e-Sahaba and Taliban, ordinary Sunni Muslims of the Barelvi belief are considered as polytheists (mushrik) because of their devotion to a peace loving Sufi (mystic) tradition of Islam. Therefore, narrow minded supporters of the Taliban and Sipah-e-Sahaba consider Barelvi / Sufi Muslims as grave worshippers and inferior Muslims. In the past, the Taliban / Sipah-e-Sahaba alliance have attacked a number of shrines in various parts of Pakistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA (Federally-Administered Tribal Areas). In March 2009, the Taliban / Sipah-e-Sahaba militants detonated the shrine of Rehman Baba, a 17th Century Sufi poet of the Pashtun language. In March 2010, terrorists of Sipah-e-Sahaba attacked Eid Milad-un-Nabi processions in Faisalabad and D.I. Khan killing at least seven people. Only last week, in June 2010, the Deobandi terrorists of the Taliban / Sipah-e-Sahaba attacked and blew up the shrine of Mian Umar Baba in the jurisdiction of Chamkani police station."

2.The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has strongly denied any responsibility for the attack on the Sufi shrine which has caused considerable anger among the common people of Pakistan. In the past, anger over terrorist attacks used to be largely confined to the urban elite. For the first time, there is now widespread anger among large sections of the common people in Pakistan. In view of this, no organisation in Pakistan has claimed responsibility for the suicide blasts. On the contrary, the TTP and the various jihadi organisations of Punjab, which are often referred to as the Punjabi Taliban, have taken care to deny responsibility.

3. Among the organisations which have maintained a silence are the Sunni extremist Sipah-e-Sahaba (SES) and its off-shoot the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, both of which closely collaborate with the TTP, the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda and have hide-outs in South and North Waziristan. It is generally believed by Pakistani police officers that Qari Hussain Mehsud, who runs the suicide bomber training school of the TTP, started his career as a jihadi in the SES and now trains the volunteers for suicide missions belonging to the LEJ too in addition to training those of the TTP. The TTP projects the so-called martyrs of the LEJ, who die in suicide missions or in encounters with the security forces, as its own “martyrs”.

4.Qari Mohammad Zafar, described as the head of the LEJ was reported to have been killed by a US drone air strike in North Waziristan on February 24 last. He was reportedly succeeded by one Mufti Abuzar Khanjari.Zafar was wanted by US and Pakistani authorities over a March 2006 attack near the US consulate in Karachi shortly before the visit of the then US President, Mr.George Bush to Pakistan from India.The US had offered a $5m (£3.3m) reward for information leading to his arrest or capture. It was reported that he had been given shelter in South Waziristan by the TTP.

5. Even though the US authorities did not issue a statement authenticating the reports of his death in a Drone attack, a statement attributed to the TTP on this subject was disseminated in the tribal areas of Pakistan in March. The statement described him as a “martyr” of the TTP without mentioning his LEJ origin and threatened that the TTP "will soon take revenge for his killing from the Government of Pakistan anywhere in the country." The warning added: "The Government of Pakistan is responsible for the killing (of militant commanders) in Drone strikes and the arrest of Afghan Taliban leaders Mullah Baradar, Mullah Kabir, Mullah Abdul Salam, ( Iran Jundullah chief) Abdul Malik Rigi and Afia Siddiqi, a Pakistani doctor now in the custody of the US."

6. Despite the TTP’s denial of responsibility for the attacks on the Sufi shrine, reliable Barelvi sources are convinced that the LEJ carried out the recent mass casualty attacks in Lahore on Ahmedia worshippers as well as on the followers of the Sufi saint in Data Darbar and that the LEJ must have carried out the attacks with the prior knowledge and approval of the TTP.

7. There are two Deobandi-Wahabi terrorist combines operating in Pakistan---the first consisting largely of Pashtuns belonging to the TTP and the so-called Ghazi force made up of surviving ex-students and teachers of the two madrasas attached to the Lal Masjid in Islamabad which was raided by the Special Services Group (SSG) of the Pakistan Army in July 2007 and the second consisting largely of Punjabi recruits belonging to the SES, the LEJ, the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) and the 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri of HUJI origin, who are referred to as the Punjabi Taliban.

8.The leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister, are not prepared to admit the presence and activities of the second combine in Punjab. In the past, many leaders of the PML (N) have had contacts with the SES and the LEJ and had taken the help of their cadres during election campaigns. They also hesitate to come out strongly against the two Wahabi-Deobandi combines in order to placate Saudi princes and charity organizations, which have been the main sources of funding for the Punjabi Taliban. The result has been a lack of effective action against the hide-outs of the jihadi organizations in Punjab---particularly in Southern Punjab---- by the Punjab Police.

9. After the suicide blasts of July 1, there has been a slanging match between Mr.Rehman Malik, Pakistan’s Interior Minister,of Mr.Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), who accuses the Punjabi Taliban of being responsible for the terrorism in Punjab and Mr.Shabaz Sharif, the brother of Mr.Nawaz, who is the Chief Minister of Punjab. Mr.Shabaz denies that there is any Punjabi Taliban operating from sanctuaries in southern Punjab and accuses Mr.Malik of not co-operating with the Punjab Police and of withholding intelligence from the Punjab Government.

10. The Army has maintained a studied silence on this subject and has refrained from involvement in operations in Southern Punjab---particularly against the SES and the LEJ. There have been instances in the past of deserters from the Army and para-military forces joining the TTP, the SSP and the LEJ, but there have been no confirmed instances of the Deobandi-Wahabi vs Barelvi and the Deobandi-Wahabi vs Shias viruses affecting serving personnel of the Armed Forces. The Army wants to keep the serving soldiers immunized against these sectarian viruses. It fears that its active involvement in operations against sectarian terrorists could damage the unity of the armed forces.

11. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of June 1,2010, titled “Bleeding Lahore” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers39%5Cpaper3840.html .



( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Saturday, July 3, 2010

XINJIANG: CHINESE ON THE GUARD, BUT FRIDAY PRAYERS ALLOWED

B.RAMAN

Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, is tense a day before the first anniversary of the outbreak of anti-Han violence by some Uighurs of the city on July 5 last year. The anti-Han violence had led to retaliatory attacks by some Hans against the Uighurs and to protest demonstration by large sections of the Hans against the local authorities for failing to protect them from alleged attacks by the Uighurs.

2.In their precautionary measures to prevent a repeat of last year's incidents, the Chinese have deployed a large number of extra police personnel all over the city. These extra forces have been brought from adjoining provinces.They have installed closed circuit TV cameras at all sensitive points in the city. They have closed the People's Square, where large violent mobs had gathered last year, to the public for a week under the pretext of having to carry out repairs.

3.The Xinhua news agency has quoted a spokesman of the municipal government of Urumqi as saying on July 1 that security cameras with special "riot-proof" protective shells have been installed in the city. Police would monitor the cameras, which have been installed on 3,400 buses, and at 200 bus stops, 4,440 streets and lanes, 270 schools and kindergartens, 100 shopping malls and supermarkets, and other places, he said. The cameras are part of a security reinforcement ahead of the anniversary.Urumqi police bureau chief Wang Mingshan said police had started drills to deal with emergencies, initiated campaigns to confiscate guns and explosives, and launched a crackdown on violent crime.The local government plans to spend about 2.9 billion yuan ($426 million) on public security this year, an increase of 87 per cent from last year.

4. According to independent sources, the Chinese authorities allowed the Friday prayers to be held in all the mosques of the city on July 2. The mosques were packed with worshippers. Police were posted outside all mosques to prevent any incident. They had erected huge banners putside the mosques reading "Uphold The Unity of the Motherland."

5. The police are concerned as much over the dangers of sections of the Hans indulging in violence against the Uighurs as over Uighur violence against the Hans. They have been discouraging people from moving around in the city without imposing a curfew. Police vans have been advising people in both Han and Uighur areas not to move around unless absolutely necessary to purchase food articles and medicines.

6. The Chinese authorities are also reported to have stepped up physical security in the Shanghai Expo and for all Chinese diplomatic and consular missions in Pakistan and the Central Asian Republics. Pakistani sources say that Pakistan's Ministry of the Interior has been requested by the Chinese Embassy to increase their surveillance on the members of the Uighur community living in different parts of Pakistan. These sources also say that the Chinese have taken precautions to prevent attacks on Chinese nationals and property by the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

7. In the meanwhile, about 200 members of Pakistan's Special Services Group (SSG)---- many of them US trained and US equipped---- are reported to have arrived in China with their equipment of US origin for participating in the third joint counter-terrorism exercise between the armies of the two countries.

8.The Agence France Press (AFP) has quoted Mr.Mark Toner, a spokesman of the US State Department, as stating as follows:"We continue to urge China to handle all detentions and judicial processes relating to last year's violence in Urumqi in a transparent manner.We have urged China to ensure that the legal rights of all Chinese citizens are respected in accordance with international standards of due process.The United States has discussed its concerns repeatedly with China via its embassy in Beijing. " ( 4-7-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinert Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Friday, July 2, 2010

INDIA'S NSA: A FEEL GOOD VISIT TO CHINA

B.RAMAN

Mr.Shiv Shankar Menon, the National Security Adviser, is undertaking a three-day visit to China from July 3,2010, as a special envoy of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh. He is going there not specifically in his capacity as the designated representative of the Prime Minister to discuss with his Chinese counterpart Mr. Dai Bingguo, State Councillor, ways of solving the pending border dispute between the two countries. He is going with a broader mandate in his capacity as the strategic adviser to the Prime Minister on national security matters, including India's relations with China and their implications for India's national security.

2. Since the Copenhagen climate summit of last year in which India and China interacted closely with each other for mutual benefit, there have been many positives and negatives in the bilateral relations. The positives have contributed to a budding feel good factor in the bilateral relations. The negatives could come in the way of a further development of the feel good atmosphere if not handled with sensitivity and understandng of each other's misgivings, if not concerns.

3. Among the positive developments, one could mention the absence of unwise rhetoric and mutual demonisation in public statements, Indian efforts to delink India's relations with the US and Japan from any strategic designs relating to China and the attempt on both sides not to allow developments relating to Tibet and His Holiness the Dalai Lama to inject poison in the bilateral relations. The trade has continued to develop despite the global economic melt-down though no longer as rapidly as it was developing before the onset of the global economic crisis.An important positive was that the two countries have refrained from projecting the negative factors, which have recently appeared in the bilateral relations, in an over-dramatic manner despite alarming interpretations by some think-tanks and analysts in both countries.

4.Among the negative factors, which are not insignificant, one could mention China's decision to help Pakistan in the construction of hydel projects in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan and the reported undertaking of a feasibility study on the construction of a railway line between Pakistan and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, which will pass through the Gilgit-Baltistan area. China's action in starting the issue of stapled visas on a separate sheet of paper to Indian citizens resident in J & K and its action in not following this practice in respect of the residents of POK and Gilgit-Baltistan have added to India's misgivings. All these developments indicated, in India's interpretation, that while China was not prepared to treat J&K as an integral part of India, it has no qualms about treating POK and Gilgit-Baltistan as integral parts of Pakistan.

5. China's relations with Pakistan have become another cause for worry to India due to the recent decision of Beijing to accept Pakistan's requests for the construction of two more-Chinese aided nuclear power reactors at Chashma in Pakistan without seeking the formal clearance of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group. This special gesture by China to Pakistan, which came in the wake of its disturbing actions relating to J&K, has rekindled Indian misgivings that China has been reverting to its pre-1999 (Kargil conflict) policy of balancing Pakistan with India and strengthening Pakistan's military-related capacity against India.

6. Though the economic relations continue to progress, there are misgivings here too. China has misgivings arising from Indian suspicions of Chinese telecommunication companies. India's unhappiness could be attributed to the failure of any action by China to make the bilateral trade more balanced. It is now considerably in favour of China. Another cause for unhappiness has been what many in India consider as the shabby treatment meted out by the Chinese authorities to some Indian retail diamond merchants, who have been detained in China for allegedly violating Chinese laws.

7. Some Indian analysts continue to voice concern over what they interpret as Chinese plans to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra river which flows from China to India. Though the Chinese have denied their allegations, suspicions remain.

8. There has been no transparency in the talks over the border dispute. But from media accounts, one could conclude that there has been no forward movement because of the Chinese insistence on their claims relating to Arunachal Pradesh, which the Chinese call Southern Tibet. As a result, both the countries have been strengthening their military-related infrastructure in the border areas----China more rapidly and with greater determination than India.

9. It goes to the credit of the political leaderships of the two countries that they have not allowed the negative factors to overshadow the emerging feel good atmosphere. However, it has to be underlined that there is a limit beyond which this feel good atmosphere cannot be expanded and strengthened if these negative factors persist. Over-all healthy relations between the two countries would be a sum total of over-all healthy development of the various components of the bilateral relations. If the components are affected by misgivings and concerns, it cannot but have an impact on the over-all relations whatever be the goodwill between the political leaderships.

10. The goodwill between the people of the two countries has not kept pace with the growing goodwill between the political leaderships because for large sections of the people the components are as important as the whole. Adequate attention has to be paid to all these factors during the forthcoming discussions of Mr.Menon with his Chinese interlocutors. (3-7-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Thursday, July 1, 2010

DATA DARBAR BLASTS:PAKISTAN IS IMPLODING, SAY SHOCKED PAKISTANIS

B.RAMAN

The death of 40 worshippers in twin suicide blasts in a highly venerated sufi shrine of Lahore popularly known as Data Darbar on the night of July 1,2010 has outraged many Pakistanis, who have started wondering whether their Government has lost control over terrorists of its own creation, whether Pakistan is imploding due to religious hatred and violence. Annexed are some of the comments taken from the web site of an organisation called All Things Pakistan (http://pakistaniat.com/2010/07/01/data-darbar-blast/ ).

2.Thursday is the congregation day in the shrine when the maximum number of worshippers gather at night (jumaraat). The shrine is considered sacred not only by all Muslims----Shias, Sunnis and Ahmadias--- but also by Hindus . In fact, before Pakistan was born in 1947 a large number of Hindus from all over India used to visit the shrine.

3.The shrine was, in fact, electrified by a Hindu landlord living near the shrine in gratitude for the recovery of his sons from a severe attack of flu. Doctors had given up hopes for their recovery. The landlord believed that it was the saint in whose honour the shrine had been built, who came to his house at night and touched his sons who were in their deathbed. They recovered the next day.

4.Data Darbar is one of the oldest Muslim shrines in the subcontinent. It houses the remains of a Sufi saint, Abul Hassan Ali Hajvery. He was of Persian origin and was born in the 11th century in Ghazni, Afghanistan. From there he migrated to Iraq and spent the last years of his life in Lahore where he died and is buried.

5.No organisation has so far claimed responsibility for the suicide blasts, but the needle of suspicion points to its probably being an act of reprisal against the Pakistan Government by the Jundullah of Iranian Balochistan and the anti-Shia and anti-Iran Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) of Pakistan in retaliation for the suspected collaboration of Pakistan with Iran in the arrest of Abdolmalek Rigi , the Amir of the Jundullah, who was captured by the Iranian intelligence as he was flying to Kyrgyzstan from Dubai and executed last month after a short trial.

6.The "Dawn" of Karachi has reported as follows on the suicide blasts:

"In the first terrorist attack of its kind in the Punjab capital, two alleged suicide bombers blew themselves up at the Data Ganj Bakhsh shrine on Thursday night, killing at least 40 people and injuring 170 others. The first explosion took place in the basement reserved for ablution and the second in front of the shrine’s main building where a large number of people from across the province gather for worship on Thursdays.

" At first, police announced that some crackers had exploded near the shrine. The two bombers entered the shrine and exploded themselves three minutes apart. Surveillance cameras, walkthrough gates and metal detectors turned out to be ineffective. Around 100 volunteers and several policemen were present in and around the shrine, searching visitors thoroughly.

"Senior Superintendent of Police (Operations) Chaudhry Shafiq Ahmad told Dawn that two suicide attacks had been carried out and investigators had found the bombers’ skulls and limbs. He said ball-bearings and other material used in the blasts had also been collected. Lahore Commissioner Khusro Pervaiz Bakhtiar told journalists at the spot that the bombers had blown themselves up during a large congregation. In reply to a question about involvement of a foreign hand in the attack, he said the strike was a horrible conspiracy but “our own people become instruments in the hands of others”.

" The official said an investigation had been launched about the breach in security measures. According to witnesses, the explosions were so powerful that a large number of people fell down and several of them were injured in a stampede. The shrine’s administration announced seconds after the first blast that a generator had exploded in the basement and they might continue their activities. The bomb disposal squad estimated that 10-15kgs of explosives had been used in each suicide jacket.

" Ambulances of Rescue 1122 and the Edhi Foundation took the bodies and injured people to hospitals. According to a devotee, two gates on the north and south side of the shrine, which usually remain closed, were open on Thursday. He suspected that the bombers had entered through those gates. Scores of enraged people gathered outside the shrine and protested against terror attacks. They also damaged public and private property. There were reports that a cracker was exploded before the suicide blasts to create a panic.

"Police evacuated Data Darbar to collect evidence and carry out rescue work. All commercial and residential buildings adjoining the shrine were also searched for suspects. Following the blasts, an extensive crackdown was launched across the city and several people were detained for interrogation. A suspect was also taken into custody near the Darbar. Rumours of terror attacks on other shrines in the city panicked devotees and police also launched a search operation there. Security was beefed up in and around all shrines and religious places." (2-7-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretarty( retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )


ANNEXURE

( COMMENTS FROM THE PAKISTANI WEB SITE MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARA)

"That Lahore’s single most iconic and revered location has been attacked - and on a jumaraat, which many consider to be sacred - reeks with symbolism and speaks volumes about the depth of hatred that these murderers have for all things Pakistan. Yes, I take this personally. Just as I have taken every murder of innocent Pakistanis anywhere in Pakistan, personally. Anyone who loves Lahore cannot hear of this and not have a shiver go down the spine; as it went mine. But that shiver is now a nearly daily occurrence. Whatever the symbolism of Data Sahib may be, it is paled by the outrage at the murder - yet again - of innocent people: the begunah, the masoom!

I would like to find the words to express that outrage, to express what Data Darbar means to so many, to describe the pain that pounds me once again as it has each time these murderers have hit Pakistanis anywhere. I would like to do that but - quite literally - my hands are trembling, my eyes have swelled up, and that shiver up my spine has gripped my entire body. Maybe later I will find the words to say what I need to say, but right now I ponder only on the darkness that resides in the hearts of the men who commit these acts, those who plan them, and those who choose to justify them.

Eidee Man says:
July 1st, 2010 10:49 pm

It is often said that nations are not destroyed by outsiders; they implode. If the fact that this attack happened on a religious gathering doesn’t cause a national outrage against the terrorist groups, then I really don’t see how our society can survive.

ATP Administrator says:
July 1st, 2010 10:43 pm

Some comments from the ATP Facebook Page:

- “How inhuman these cursed Taliban are. They kill Muslims everywhere they find us.”
- “That was not done by Talibans, Its for Sure Blackwaters, American backed terrorist organization, and this bloody Govt. of Zardari is allied with it.
Can’t you ever think all these events happen within Lahore, so neatly, that non of our so called ISI, CIA or Punjab police can even trace their back. Talibans can never be so organised and so trained….
No one get captured, because these people are safely transported into Lahore by Federal Govt. and they most probably reside in Balawal house or Governor house Lahore…
Google Sirilankan team attack in Lahore you would get some pretty fine articles stating that attackers went all the way till Bilawal house In model town Lahore and then disappeared….. If your president can kill his wife for money, then who are ordinary people not to be killed for the sake of money……”
- “i dnt agre wid u all that was a revnge by the qadiani.s………”
- “[above comments] an excellent example of “Parha Likha Jahil”.”
- “it is done by Pakistani talibans which are created by CIA and RAW to give a bad name to Afghani talibans.. Pakistani talibans have nothing to do with Islam.. they are non religious people who are working for CIA and RAW and our poor puppet government is doing nothing about it.. people are dying due to poverty and inflation and our government is still fighting to gain power over judiciary..
Long live PAK Army and Intelligence.. and Long Live Pakistan”

- “For Sure it was not done by Qadiani, they were already under greaf…”
- “being muslim is a distant thing, wahabis and taliban are not even human. The extremist version of sunni islam has gotten out of hand and we need to start making amends straight away. wahabism is zaleelism. it will drag us down into oblivion.”
- “There is but only ONE solution to all the violence in Pakistan - declare it a secular state, ban all the religious parties (political or non-political), ban all the public display of any religion .. and change the education to secular thoughts .. otherwise be prepared to live in 7th century”
- “”Taliban can never be so organised or trained”..Doesnt take much organisation to use children as bombs..All you need is a good deal of brainwashing which the taliban and taliban loving madrassas r extremely good at. There might be a hidden hand but taliban is not an innocent lot. We should learn to recognize the enemy within us…”
- “They say never happened in 800 years ,,, and i am sure its a foreign hand in it ,, dumbo security”
- “and the typical rhetoric goes on - CIA, RAW, Musad, Hindu Jewish lobby, Zardari, Qadiani .. as many fingers as many directions .. cant you all open your eyes and see it is the militant religious zealots who are doing all this .. and the only way to delete the word “Islamic republic” from Pakistan and start to live in the 21st century”
- “My blood boils at all the idiots and traitors who come to defend the Taliban who are the enemies of Pakistan. ALll the people who are defending the Taliban and giving stupid conspiracy theories, how many Pakistanis do you want to kill? Why do you hate Muslims? I say anyone defending the Taliban and these killers or trying to distract attention by stupid theories about foreign hands etc., they are all traitors and enemies of Pakistan themselves because they are supporting the killers of Pakistan.
PAKISTAN ZINDABAD.”

Muhammad Usman Ghani says:
July 1st, 2010 10:15 pm

The event makes one speechless but more speechless I get over the conspiracy theorists comments we will face over this issue in days to come.

Praful Shah says:
July 1st, 2010 10:02 pm

Looking the photos, reading the news makes me angry as well as sad. These monsters were created and nurtured to kill Indians, especially Hindus. These were Pakistan army’s additional wing with blessing from Mr. Nawaz Sharif & Mrs. Bhutto. Now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Sadly, neither Pakistanis politicians nor Pakistani army (ISI) does not give a damn. If they stop sheltering these sobs, the war will be over in very short time.
What scares me most if they attack US as they did in 2001, I do not think US and The West will take lightly. It is matter of time they will have access to Pakistani Nukes. Than what?
God only can help. ( 2-7-10)