B.RAMAN
John O. Brennan, a former career intelligence officer of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who now functions as President Barack Obama's Assistant for Homeland Security and Counter-terrorism, has in two interactions on August 5 and 6,2009, unveiled the first details of what will be the counter-terrorism doctrine of the Obama Administration.
2. The first interaction on August 5,2009, was with a select group of Washington-based journalists. The second on August 6 was in the form of a presentation before the Centre For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC. Salient points from his presentation at the CSIS are given in Annexure I. His bio-data as carried by Wikipedia is at Annexure II.
3. The new policy as outlined by him will be a mix of hard and soft power, the professional and political options and treating terrorism as a threat and at the same time as a phenomenon, which requires a multi-dimensional approach. He was critical of attempts to make the entire foreign policy hostage to counter-terrorism. It will no more be a war on terror as projected by the previous administration of George Bush.Instead, it will be a campaign against terrorism.
4. The "Washington Post" of August 6,2009, has quoted him as saying during his interaction with the media: "It (counter-terrorism) needs to be much more than a kinetic effort, an intelligence, law enforcement effort. It has to be much more comprehensive,.This is not a 'war on terror.' . . . We cannot let the terror prism guide how we're going to interact and be involved in different parts of the world."
5. The message, which he has sought to convey through his two interactions is: Counter-terrorism will continue to be an important priority of the administration, but not an obsessive priority. One cannot ignore other issues requiring attention under the pretext of preoccupation with counter-terrorism.
6. Speaking on a day when there were unconfirmed reports from Pakistan that Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) might have been killed in a strike by an unmanned aircraft of the CIA in South Waziristan,Brennan has made it clear that the new doctrine will not mean the slowing down of the operations against Al Qaeda and other terrorists operating from the Af-Pak area. What he means is that while continued military operations are necessary, military operations alone cannot eradicate terrorism. There is and there ought to be a role for other components of counter-terrorism.
7. Comprehensive counter-terrorism combining all facets of national power----political, economic and military---- will be the policy from now onwards. The "Washington Post" has quoted him as saying: "We are not saying that poverty causes terrorism, or disenfranchisement causes terrorism, but we can't mistake there are certain phenomena that contribute to it.Terrorism needs to be fought against and certainly delegitimized or attacked, but some of the underlying grievances that might in fact lead individuals astray to terrorism cannot be ignored."
8. He also reportedly told the journalists: "It's important to maintain the offensive against what are clearly terrorist training facilities and camps, and we're working closely with the Afghanistan and Pakistan governments to root out these facilities.. At the same time, the use of lethal force must be very focused, and ensure that we are not incurring any type of collateral damage."
9. In his presentation at the CSIS, he deplored the use of the expression 'jihadi terrorism" and said:"Describing terrorists in this way—using a legitimate term, “jihad,” meaning to purify oneself or to wage a holy struggle for a moral goal—risks giving these murderers the religious legitimacy they desperately seek but in no way deserve. Worse, it risks reinforcing the idea that the United States is somehow at war with Islam itself. " However, he did not indicate how else to characterise the terrorism of Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations. Just
terrorism? Without saying Islamic or jihadi terrorism? He was not clear, but that is probably what he meant.
10.Obama's detractors describe the new approach to counter-terrorism as the Jesuit approach. Will it succeed? Obama and Brennan want to give the new policy a try.
11.Ultimately, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
12.It needs to be noted that the remarks of Brennan and the new policy as outlined by him related to the campaign against Al Qaeda and other pro-Al Qaeda organisations. He avoided any detailed remarks on the campaign against the Taliban.(7-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE I
Salient points from John Brennan's talk at the CSIS on August 6,2009, as collated from open sources
There is a need for “a new era of engagement with the world, including committing the United States to a new partnership with Muslims around the world—a partnership based on mutual interests and mutual respect.”
Keeping the American people safe is Obama’s most important responsibility. Other priorities include:Nonproliferation, food security, cybersecurity,repudiating torture and ending the Iraq war and “defeating al Qaeda and its allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
“Tactics such as waterboarding were not in keeping with our values… and should not, and would not, happen again.”
The new policy would mean neither a “wholesale dismantling” of the Bush approach nor a “wholesale retention.” No “absolutist approach” nor “rigid ideology.” Obama’s views are “nuanced, not simplistic.”
Obama understands that preventing terrorists from slaughtering the innocent sometimes requires making very difficult decisions—deployment of military forces, authorization of sensitive intelligence activities, the handling and disposition of terrorists that we capture and detain; and the policies we make and the measures we take to protect our homeland.
Immediate “near-term” challenge is “destroying al-Qaeda and its allies."
Al Qaeda and its affiliates are under tremendous pressure. After years of U.S. counterterrorism operations, and in partnership with other nations, al Qaeda has been seriously damaged and forced to replace many of its top-tier leadership with less experienced and less capable individuals. It is being forced to work harder and harder to raise money, to move its operatives around the world, and to plan attacks.
Al Qaeda has safehaven in Pakistan’s tribal area, with its capabilities “leveraged” by allies in “the Arabian Peninsula, from East Africa to the Sahel and Maghreb regions of North Africa.”
“We have presented President Obama with a number of actions and initiatives against al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.” Obama has encouraged his team “to be even more aggressive, even more proactive, and even more innovative, to seek out new ways and new opportunities for taking down these terrorists.”
"We are continuing to adapt and strengthen the intelligence community by expanding human intelligence; strengthening operations;enhancing the workforce with improved linguistic and cultural skills; filling intelligence gaps; improving collaboration across the intelligence community; and promoting greater coordination with foreign intelligence partners."
The long-term challenge: “the threat of violent extremism generally, including the political, economic, and social factors that help put so many individuals on the path to violence.”
"Rather than looking at allies and other nations through the narrow prism of terrorism—whether they are with us or against us—the administration is now engaging other countries and peoples across a broader range of areas. Rather than treating so many of our foreign affairs programs—foreign assistance, development, democracy promotion—as simply extensions of the fight against terrorists, we will do these things—promote economic growth, good governance, transparency and accountability—because they serve our common interests and common security; not just in regions gripped by violent extremism, but around the world."
"Why should a great and powerful nation like the United States allow its relationship with more than a billion Muslims around the world be defined by the narrow hatred and nihilistic actions of an exceptionally small minority of Muslims? After all, this is precisely what Osama bin Laden intended with the Sept. 11 attacks: to use al Qaeda to foment a clash of civilizations in which the United States and Islam are seen as distinct identities that are in conflict."
No more “war on terrorism.” It would focus on tactics & confusing ends and means. Self-defeating because you can’t win a war on a tactic.Similarly, no talk of a “global war” which “plays into the warped narrative that al Qaeda propagates. It plays into the misleading and dangerous notion that the U.S. is somehow in conflict with the rest of the world.” But global operations against al-Qaeda will continue.
"The counterinsurgency lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan apply equally to the broader fight against extremism: we cannot shoot ourselves out of this challenge. We can take out all the terrorists we want—their leadership and their foot soldiers. But if we fail to confront the broader political, economic, and social conditions in which extremists thrive, then there will always be another recruit in the pipeline,
another attack coming downstream."
"It is people in these countries, not the United States, who ultimately will isolate these extremists: governments that provide for the basic security and needs of their people; strong and transparent institutions free from corruption; mainstream clerics and scholars who teach that Islam promotes peace, not extremism; and ordinary people who are ready to choose a future free from violence and fear. Still, the United
States can and must play its part. For even as we condemn and oppose the illegitimate tactics used by terrorists, we need to acknowledge and address the legitimate needs and grievances of the ordinary people those terrorists claim to represent."
"The most effective long-term strategy for safeguarding the American people is one that promotes a future where a young man or woman never even considers joining an extremist group in the first place; where they reject out of hand the idea of picking up that gun or strapping on that suicide vest…”
There is a need for “negotiations to achieve the goal of two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security” .
“And at home, we know that we can rely on the extraordinary capabilities of the American people to be fully engaged in our shared effort to protect ourselves. We will not live our lives in fear, but rather in confidence, as we strengthen our ability to prevent attacks and reduce our
vulnerabilities wherever they exist.”
ANNEXURE II
JOHN BRENNAN'S BIO (From Wikipedia)
John O. Brennan is the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism. An "Assistant to the President" is the highest rank that any White House staffer can hold. He was interim director of the National Counterterrorism Center immediately after its creation in 2004 through 2005, and since 2005 has served as CEO of The Analysis Corporation. He advised Obama on foreign policy and intelligence issues. Since 2007, Brennan has served as Chairman of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance. It was assumed early on by some that Brennan would be appointed next Director of the Central Intelligence Agency by Obama. Brennan withdrew his name from consideration in November 2008, however, over concerns that his nomination would be a distraction, due to his previous associations with controversial harsh CIA interrogation techniques. Brennan's responsibilities as Deputy National Security Advisor include overseeing plans to protect the
country from terrorism and respond to natural disasters.
CAREER HIGHLIGHTS
CEO of The Analysis Corporation
Chairman of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA)
Interim director, National Counterterrorism Center[6]
Director, Terrorist Threat Integration Center
Deputy Executive Director, CIA
Chief of Staff to Director of Central Intelligence, CIA
Chief of Station, Middle East, CIA (1996 - 1999)
Executive Assistant to the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, CIA
Deputy Director, Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis, CIA
Daily Intelligence Briefer at the White House, CIA
Deputy Division Chief, Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis, CIA
Chief of Analysis, DCI's Counterterrorism Center, CIA
Middle East Specialist and Terrorism Analyst, Directorate of Intelligence, CIA
Political Officer, U.S. Embassy in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Department of State
Thursday, August 6, 2009
CHINESE-ALGERIAN CLASHES IN ALGIERS
B.RAMAN
According to belated reports, there were violent clashes between Chinese and Algerian retail traders in Algiers on the evening of August 3,2009, following a heated argument between a Chinese and an Algerian over the former wrongly parking his car outside the shop of an Algerian.
2. It is alleged that the Algerian and his brother beat up the Chinese owner of a shop. Following this, there were widespread clashesbetween Algerian and Chinese traders. A number of shops were destroyed. Ultimately, the police intervened and restored order. All Chinese shops have remained closed in Algiers since the clashes. The Chinese Embassy in Algiers has reportedly issued an advisory to the Chinese
living and working in Algeria---- estimated to be about 25,000---- to stay at home till the anti-Chinese anger has subsided.
3. The Algerian traders affected by the riots have started a campaign to demand the expulsion of all Chinese from Algeria. They have accused the Chinese of not respecting Islam and of drinking in public and moving around in shorts. Muslims regard shorts as indecent.News agencies have quoted one of the Algerian traders as saying as follows: "The Chinese have taken advantage of the kindness of the
Algerians. They were accepted despite their faults, today they are attacking us.They drink alcohol in front of their shops and in full view of the Algerians and often parade about in shorts in the area. This sort of behaviour is against our religion and our culture,"
4. The Algerian authorities and the Chinese Embassy in Algiers have been trying to reduce the anger in the two communities against each other. They have been trying to play down the clashes as isolated incidents. The "Global Times" of Beijing, an English daily of the "People's Daily" group of newspapers, admiited the violent incidents in a report dated August 5 carried by it on August 6,2009. The report said as follows:
"A fight involving about 100 people in the Algerian capital, Algiers, between Chinese workers and Algerian residents is under investigation,Chinese Embassy staff told reporters yesterday (August 4). The clash happened Monday evening in an area called Chnaoua (Chinatown). A Chinese resident allegedly tried to park his car in front of an Algerian shop but was prevented from doing so. The Algerian owner of the shop later admitted that he beat the Chinese after turning him away.The Chinese man then fought back, along with about 50 companions,triggering the brawl that resulted in dozens injured and five Chinese shops looted. There were about 60 locals involved.
“This is a typical criminal case that has nothing to do with anti-China sentiment or terrorism,” Shao Tian, an official of the Chinese Embassy,told the Global Times, adding that the Embassy is working on it and helping local investigation.
“We trust the Algerian police to shed light on what happened,” Ling Jun, another diplomat from the Chinese Embassy, told Reuters.
“Both sides made mistakes in this case, but the Chinese workers should have shown more class,” said He Wenping, research chief at the Western Asia and Africa Research Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
“They are representing China there, but what they have done is disgraceful. They should have used the local law to protect them, not violence,” she added.
"Depression-stricken Algeria has been hit hard by high unemployment, as seven out of 10 adults under 30 are out of work, according to Reuters. An analyst said that some jobless Algerians are blaming foreign workers for the conditions, especially the estimated 35,000 Chinese workers.
“Some Algerians are emotional under the harsh economic conditions,” he said. “Chinese workers there should show their sympathy and discipline themselves more. Behavior such as drinking in public, which is not welcomed by Muslim people, should be stopped.”
"China warned its citizens in Algeria last month about possible attacks by Al Qaeda’s North African wing after the July 5 riots in Urumqi,capital of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
"Apparently there was no evidence of any direct link between the brawl and the infamous terrorist group. “China and Algeria will continue their friendly relations and overcome the financial crisis together,” he added. (End of the "Global Times report)
5. While there is no evidence so far to indicate any link between the North African wing of Al Qaeda and the anti-Chinese violence in Algiers,the Algerian outburst against the Chinese on August 3 came at a time when there is some anger against the Chinese in Turkey and North Africa over the violent incidents involving clashes between the Uighurs and the Han Chinese at Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang province of China, in the first week of July 2009. The action taken by the Chinese against the Uighurs is being seen as anti-Muslim. The Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan enjoys the support of Al Qaeda. It has called for attacks on Han Chinese wherever found in reprisal for the Urumqi incidents. (6-8-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
According to belated reports, there were violent clashes between Chinese and Algerian retail traders in Algiers on the evening of August 3,2009, following a heated argument between a Chinese and an Algerian over the former wrongly parking his car outside the shop of an Algerian.
2. It is alleged that the Algerian and his brother beat up the Chinese owner of a shop. Following this, there were widespread clashesbetween Algerian and Chinese traders. A number of shops were destroyed. Ultimately, the police intervened and restored order. All Chinese shops have remained closed in Algiers since the clashes. The Chinese Embassy in Algiers has reportedly issued an advisory to the Chinese
living and working in Algeria---- estimated to be about 25,000---- to stay at home till the anti-Chinese anger has subsided.
3. The Algerian traders affected by the riots have started a campaign to demand the expulsion of all Chinese from Algeria. They have accused the Chinese of not respecting Islam and of drinking in public and moving around in shorts. Muslims regard shorts as indecent.News agencies have quoted one of the Algerian traders as saying as follows: "The Chinese have taken advantage of the kindness of the
Algerians. They were accepted despite their faults, today they are attacking us.They drink alcohol in front of their shops and in full view of the Algerians and often parade about in shorts in the area. This sort of behaviour is against our religion and our culture,"
4. The Algerian authorities and the Chinese Embassy in Algiers have been trying to reduce the anger in the two communities against each other. They have been trying to play down the clashes as isolated incidents. The "Global Times" of Beijing, an English daily of the "People's Daily" group of newspapers, admiited the violent incidents in a report dated August 5 carried by it on August 6,2009. The report said as follows:
"A fight involving about 100 people in the Algerian capital, Algiers, between Chinese workers and Algerian residents is under investigation,Chinese Embassy staff told reporters yesterday (August 4). The clash happened Monday evening in an area called Chnaoua (Chinatown). A Chinese resident allegedly tried to park his car in front of an Algerian shop but was prevented from doing so. The Algerian owner of the shop later admitted that he beat the Chinese after turning him away.The Chinese man then fought back, along with about 50 companions,triggering the brawl that resulted in dozens injured and five Chinese shops looted. There were about 60 locals involved.
“This is a typical criminal case that has nothing to do with anti-China sentiment or terrorism,” Shao Tian, an official of the Chinese Embassy,told the Global Times, adding that the Embassy is working on it and helping local investigation.
“We trust the Algerian police to shed light on what happened,” Ling Jun, another diplomat from the Chinese Embassy, told Reuters.
“Both sides made mistakes in this case, but the Chinese workers should have shown more class,” said He Wenping, research chief at the Western Asia and Africa Research Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
“They are representing China there, but what they have done is disgraceful. They should have used the local law to protect them, not violence,” she added.
"Depression-stricken Algeria has been hit hard by high unemployment, as seven out of 10 adults under 30 are out of work, according to Reuters. An analyst said that some jobless Algerians are blaming foreign workers for the conditions, especially the estimated 35,000 Chinese workers.
“Some Algerians are emotional under the harsh economic conditions,” he said. “Chinese workers there should show their sympathy and discipline themselves more. Behavior such as drinking in public, which is not welcomed by Muslim people, should be stopped.”
"China warned its citizens in Algeria last month about possible attacks by Al Qaeda’s North African wing after the July 5 riots in Urumqi,capital of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
"Apparently there was no evidence of any direct link between the brawl and the infamous terrorist group. “China and Algeria will continue their friendly relations and overcome the financial crisis together,” he added. (End of the "Global Times report)
5. While there is no evidence so far to indicate any link between the North African wing of Al Qaeda and the anti-Chinese violence in Algiers,the Algerian outburst against the Chinese on August 3 came at a time when there is some anger against the Chinese in Turkey and North Africa over the violent incidents involving clashes between the Uighurs and the Han Chinese at Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang province of China, in the first week of July 2009. The action taken by the Chinese against the Uighurs is being seen as anti-Muslim. The Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan enjoys the support of Al Qaeda. It has called for attacks on Han Chinese wherever found in reprisal for the Urumqi incidents. (6-8-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
ARRESTS OF TERRORIST SUSPECTS IN AUSTRALIA
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO. 546
B.RAMAN
The police authorities of Melbourne charged before a local court on August 5,2009, four Muslims with "conspiring to commit an act in preparation or planning a terrorist act." The police alleged that the charged persons were planning to carry out an act of suicide terrorism on some barracks of the Australian Army located at a place called Holsworthy on the outskirts of Sydney. In addition to army units, the
Holsworthy base, according to the Australian media. also houses an anti-extremism unit.
2.The names of the arrested and charged persons were given out as Nayef El Sayed, Saney Edow Aweys, Wissam Mahmoud Fattal and Yacqub Khayre. According to the police, a fifth suspect, who was already in custody in connection with some other offence, was also expected to be charged along with them. The arrested persons have been described as of Somali or Lebanese origin. Khayre has also been accused of travelling to Somalia to train and fight with the Al-Qaeda-inspired Al Shabab, which is fighting against the pro-government forces and controls large parts of Somalia.
3.Tony Negus, acting Chief Commissioner of the Australian Federal Police, told the media: "The men's intention was to actually go into the army barracks and to kill as many soldiers as they could before they themselves were killed.Members of the group have been actively seeking a fatwa or religious ruling to justify a terror attack on Australia." A Victoria ( provincial ) police statement said that "police believe
members of a Melbourne-based group have been undertaking planning to carry out a terrorist attack in Australia and are allegedly involved in hostilities in Somalia." Peter Dein, the counter-terrorism chief of the New South Wales Police, said that the planning was probably getting to the point where the act of terrorism would have happened within weeks.
4.There are about 16,000 residents---many of them Australian citizens--- of Somali origin in Melbourne. Many of them came as refugees after civil strife broke out in Somalia in 1991. These Somalis belong to different Somali clans including the two principal Daarood and Hawiye clans which have been fighting for the control of Somalia. Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG), which drew its support mainly from the Daarood clan, was overthrown in 2004 by a pro-Al Qaeda group called the Islamic Courts Union, consisting largely of members of the Hawiye clan. The ICU was defeated by the TFG in late 2006 with the help of US-backed forces from Ethiopia. The defeated remnants of the ICU, emulated the Afghan Taliban, and formed a new organisation called al-Shabab, which has been fighting for the control of the
country with the support of Al Qaeda.
5. As stated in the Chapter titled " Global Jihadi Terrorism As Seen by Al Qaeda" in my book titled "Terrorism---Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow" (www.lancerpublishers.com) , Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No.2 to Osama bin Laden in Al Qaeda, has been speaking of a global jihadi Intifada in which the Somali Muslims will play an important role. By jihadi Intifada he means a kind of a struggle in which the role of motivated individual Muslims will become more important than that of organisations so that the weakening or collapse of an organisation would not result in a collapse of the Intifada.
6. In a message of December 20,2006, he said: " Brothers in Islam and Jihad in Somalia, know that you are on the southern garrison of Islam,so don't allow Islam to be attacked from your flank......Know that you are fending off the same Crusade which is fighting your brothers in Islam in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon."
7. In Al Qaeda's portrayal, among the alleged Crusaders fighting against the Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan are the 1550 Australian troops in Afghanistan and Australian personnel helping the US in its campaign in Iraq. Thus, Australia is a legitimate target for acts of reprisal for its role in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as for its earlier alleged role in helping East Timor break away from the Islamic Ummah.The targeted attacks on Australians in Bali and Jakarta since 2002 by terrorists allegedly belonging to the Jemaah Islamiyah are justified as legitimate acts of reprisal.
8.While pro-Al Qaeda elements have been able to carry out acts of reprisal against Australian nationals and interests outside Australia in Indonesia, they have till now not succeeded in mounting any act of reprisal in Australian territory itself for want of support in the local Muslim population. The present arrests indicate that Al Qaeda has succeeded in motivating individual elements of Somali and Lebanese origin in Australia to join the jihad through acts of reprisal mounted in Australian territory. Just as the Pakistani supporters of Al Qaeda in the diaspora in the UK were recruited during their visits to their relatives in Pakistan, the arrested persons from the Somali community in Australia would appear to have been motivated and recruited during their home visits to Somalia.
9.The Somali Muslims have had a long history of contacts with Pakistani jihadi organisations. Pakistani jihadi elements, to escape arrest by the police, often take shelter in Yemen or Somalia. The Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) of Pakistan has been very active among the Somalis in Somalia itself as well as among the Somalis residing abroad. In the early 1990s, Somalia had banned the TJ as an extremist organisation.
Despite this, by taking advantage of the civil strife in Somalia, it continues to be active. It has been bringing a number of Somalis to Pakistan for studying in the madrasas controlled by different jihadi organisations. According to Pakistani sources, the Tablighi Jamaat is the only Pakistani organisation, which has an organisational presence in Australia. The February 1998, issue of the "Newsline", a monthly of Pakistan, had quoted workers of the TJ as saying that the TJ had many offices in the US, Russia, the Central Asian Republics, South Africa,Australia and France. Its active presence in Somalia was utilised by Al Qaeda for years to motivate and recruit Somalis for the jihad. If its presence in Australia continues, it could similarly help Al Qaeda in motivating and recruiting from the Somali community in Australia.
10. Sections of the Australian media have been drawing attention for some months to indications of a radicalisation of some sections of the Somali community. This radicalisation was seen more as an echo of the civil strife in Somalia and not as an echo of what was happening in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The arrests made by the Melbourne Police indicate that the radicalisation in the Somali community in
Australia is acquiring a pan-Islamic momentum instead of remaining a purely Somalian sectarian phenomenon as it was till now. Another point of concern to the Australian security agencies since September last has been any contacts between members of the Somali community in Australia and the Somali pirates. These concerns were the result of the spurt in acts of piracy by Somalis and unrelated to the
activities of Al Qaeda. With the arrest of these persons allegedly planning an act of suicide terrorism in Australia, there will be new concerns about the likelihood of a nexus between Somali radicals and Somali pirates, each helping and keeping the other sustained.
11. The following articles of mine may be of interest:
(a).My article of 15-91999 titled "DAGESTAN: FOCUS ON PAKISTAN'S TABLIGHI JAMAAT" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers%5Cpaper80.html .
(b). My article of 13.11.2003 titled "JIHADI ANGER: After Italy, Australia?" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers9/paper838.html .
(c).My article of 28-12-2006 titled "SOMALIA: JIHADIS EMULATING TALIBAN'S TACTICS" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers21%5Cpaper2075.html .
(d). My article of 4-8-09 titled "Pro-Al Qaeda Elements Regrouping For Fresh Strikes" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers34/paper3329.html .
6-8-2009
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,
Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The police authorities of Melbourne charged before a local court on August 5,2009, four Muslims with "conspiring to commit an act in preparation or planning a terrorist act." The police alleged that the charged persons were planning to carry out an act of suicide terrorism on some barracks of the Australian Army located at a place called Holsworthy on the outskirts of Sydney. In addition to army units, the
Holsworthy base, according to the Australian media. also houses an anti-extremism unit.
2.The names of the arrested and charged persons were given out as Nayef El Sayed, Saney Edow Aweys, Wissam Mahmoud Fattal and Yacqub Khayre. According to the police, a fifth suspect, who was already in custody in connection with some other offence, was also expected to be charged along with them. The arrested persons have been described as of Somali or Lebanese origin. Khayre has also been accused of travelling to Somalia to train and fight with the Al-Qaeda-inspired Al Shabab, which is fighting against the pro-government forces and controls large parts of Somalia.
3.Tony Negus, acting Chief Commissioner of the Australian Federal Police, told the media: "The men's intention was to actually go into the army barracks and to kill as many soldiers as they could before they themselves were killed.Members of the group have been actively seeking a fatwa or religious ruling to justify a terror attack on Australia." A Victoria ( provincial ) police statement said that "police believe
members of a Melbourne-based group have been undertaking planning to carry out a terrorist attack in Australia and are allegedly involved in hostilities in Somalia." Peter Dein, the counter-terrorism chief of the New South Wales Police, said that the planning was probably getting to the point where the act of terrorism would have happened within weeks.
4.There are about 16,000 residents---many of them Australian citizens--- of Somali origin in Melbourne. Many of them came as refugees after civil strife broke out in Somalia in 1991. These Somalis belong to different Somali clans including the two principal Daarood and Hawiye clans which have been fighting for the control of Somalia. Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG), which drew its support mainly from the Daarood clan, was overthrown in 2004 by a pro-Al Qaeda group called the Islamic Courts Union, consisting largely of members of the Hawiye clan. The ICU was defeated by the TFG in late 2006 with the help of US-backed forces from Ethiopia. The defeated remnants of the ICU, emulated the Afghan Taliban, and formed a new organisation called al-Shabab, which has been fighting for the control of the
country with the support of Al Qaeda.
5. As stated in the Chapter titled " Global Jihadi Terrorism As Seen by Al Qaeda" in my book titled "Terrorism---Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow" (www.lancerpublishers.com) , Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No.2 to Osama bin Laden in Al Qaeda, has been speaking of a global jihadi Intifada in which the Somali Muslims will play an important role. By jihadi Intifada he means a kind of a struggle in which the role of motivated individual Muslims will become more important than that of organisations so that the weakening or collapse of an organisation would not result in a collapse of the Intifada.
6. In a message of December 20,2006, he said: " Brothers in Islam and Jihad in Somalia, know that you are on the southern garrison of Islam,so don't allow Islam to be attacked from your flank......Know that you are fending off the same Crusade which is fighting your brothers in Islam in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon."
7. In Al Qaeda's portrayal, among the alleged Crusaders fighting against the Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan are the 1550 Australian troops in Afghanistan and Australian personnel helping the US in its campaign in Iraq. Thus, Australia is a legitimate target for acts of reprisal for its role in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as for its earlier alleged role in helping East Timor break away from the Islamic Ummah.The targeted attacks on Australians in Bali and Jakarta since 2002 by terrorists allegedly belonging to the Jemaah Islamiyah are justified as legitimate acts of reprisal.
8.While pro-Al Qaeda elements have been able to carry out acts of reprisal against Australian nationals and interests outside Australia in Indonesia, they have till now not succeeded in mounting any act of reprisal in Australian territory itself for want of support in the local Muslim population. The present arrests indicate that Al Qaeda has succeeded in motivating individual elements of Somali and Lebanese origin in Australia to join the jihad through acts of reprisal mounted in Australian territory. Just as the Pakistani supporters of Al Qaeda in the diaspora in the UK were recruited during their visits to their relatives in Pakistan, the arrested persons from the Somali community in Australia would appear to have been motivated and recruited during their home visits to Somalia.
9.The Somali Muslims have had a long history of contacts with Pakistani jihadi organisations. Pakistani jihadi elements, to escape arrest by the police, often take shelter in Yemen or Somalia. The Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) of Pakistan has been very active among the Somalis in Somalia itself as well as among the Somalis residing abroad. In the early 1990s, Somalia had banned the TJ as an extremist organisation.
Despite this, by taking advantage of the civil strife in Somalia, it continues to be active. It has been bringing a number of Somalis to Pakistan for studying in the madrasas controlled by different jihadi organisations. According to Pakistani sources, the Tablighi Jamaat is the only Pakistani organisation, which has an organisational presence in Australia. The February 1998, issue of the "Newsline", a monthly of Pakistan, had quoted workers of the TJ as saying that the TJ had many offices in the US, Russia, the Central Asian Republics, South Africa,Australia and France. Its active presence in Somalia was utilised by Al Qaeda for years to motivate and recruit Somalis for the jihad. If its presence in Australia continues, it could similarly help Al Qaeda in motivating and recruiting from the Somali community in Australia.
10. Sections of the Australian media have been drawing attention for some months to indications of a radicalisation of some sections of the Somali community. This radicalisation was seen more as an echo of the civil strife in Somalia and not as an echo of what was happening in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The arrests made by the Melbourne Police indicate that the radicalisation in the Somali community in
Australia is acquiring a pan-Islamic momentum instead of remaining a purely Somalian sectarian phenomenon as it was till now. Another point of concern to the Australian security agencies since September last has been any contacts between members of the Somali community in Australia and the Somali pirates. These concerns were the result of the spurt in acts of piracy by Somalis and unrelated to the
activities of Al Qaeda. With the arrest of these persons allegedly planning an act of suicide terrorism in Australia, there will be new concerns about the likelihood of a nexus between Somali radicals and Somali pirates, each helping and keeping the other sustained.
11. The following articles of mine may be of interest:
(a).My article of 15-91999 titled "DAGESTAN: FOCUS ON PAKISTAN'S TABLIGHI JAMAAT" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers%5Cpaper80.html .
(b). My article of 13.11.2003 titled "JIHADI ANGER: After Italy, Australia?" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers9/paper838.html .
(c).My article of 28-12-2006 titled "SOMALIA: JIHADIS EMULATING TALIBAN'S TACTICS" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers21%5Cpaper2075.html .
(d). My article of 4-8-09 titled "Pro-Al Qaeda Elements Regrouping For Fresh Strikes" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers34/paper3329.html .
6-8-2009
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,
Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
NORTH KOREA:OBAMA'S SEARCH FOR NEW DIPLOMATIC OPTIONS
B.RAMAN
Former President Bill Clinton paid a surprise one-day visit to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, on August 4,2009, and met among others
President Kim Jong-il.
2. The visit had an ostensibly humanitarian purpose---namely, to seek the release of Laura King and Euna Lee, two women journalists of
the US, who had been convicted by a North Korean court and sentenced to a long period of imprisonment on a charge of illegally entering
North Korea in March. The fact that Kim Jong-il issued a State pardon of the convicted journalists shortly after Clinton's meeting with him, thereby enabling Clinton to leave for the US the same night with the pardoned journalists indicated that North Korea had most probably agreed to the pardon even before Clinton's arrival and that Clinton went to Pyongyang not to seek their release, but to accept them.
3. Even though the US does not have diplomatic relations with North Korea, US officials had been visiting North Korea in the past. Madeleine
Albright, the US Secretary of State during Clinton's second term as the President, had visited Pyongyang. US diplomats associated with the six-party talks on North Korean denuclearisation had also been visiting Pyongyang off and on.
4. However, Clinton's visit has a special significance which none of the previous visits of other American emissaries had. This significance arises not merely from the fact that he is a former President of the US, but also from the fact that he is reputed to be playing an important role in advising the administration of President Barack Obama on important foreign policy matters.
5. The humanitarian purpose of the visit, which even hardline anti-Pyongyang hawks in the US cannot criticise, conceals an underlying political purpose---- namely, to begin an exploration of new diplomatic options for pressurising or persuading North Korea to agree to denuclearisation. The developments after North Korea carried out its nuclear test of May 25,2009, and the intransigence of North Korea have clearly brought out two things: firstly, China's unwillingness or inability to exercise pressure on North Korea beyond a limit. Secondly, the six-power talks on the denuclearisation issue on which the US had put all its eggs till now appeared to have run out of steam.
6. Instead of continuing to depend on China to bring about a moderation of North Korean policies, the Obama Adminstration would appear to have decided to try a direct diplomatic approach by using the Clinton visit to see whether other options---more productive than the six-power talks-- are available.
7. Three things are certain. Firstly, it was a political visit under a humanitarian cover. Secondly, the visit must have been undertaken with the knowledge and prior approval of Obama. Thirdly, when Clinton met Kim they must have discussed not only the release of the two journalists but also political issues of concern to the two countries such as US concerns over North Korea's nuclearisation and North Korea's concerns over a US-Japan-South Korea threat to its security.
8. The fact that Clinton was in Pyongyang only for a few hours would indicate that any discussions of a political significance would have been of a general, ice-breaking nature without going into details.
9. Kim's decision to receive Clinton and to respond positively to the request for the release of the journalists would clearly show that his hold over power is as strong as ever despite recent reports of a decline in his health.
10. Will the visit turn out to be of only one-shot significance relating to the release of the journalists or will there be a political follow-up? One has to wait and see.
11. Certain other questions of considerable interest are: How was the ground prepared for the visit? Did China play a role? If not, who
did? Why have the relatives of the released journalists thanked Clinton as well as Al Gore, his Vice-President, for making the release possible? Were Japan and South Korea kept in the picture? (5-8-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Former President Bill Clinton paid a surprise one-day visit to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, on August 4,2009, and met among others
President Kim Jong-il.
2. The visit had an ostensibly humanitarian purpose---namely, to seek the release of Laura King and Euna Lee, two women journalists of
the US, who had been convicted by a North Korean court and sentenced to a long period of imprisonment on a charge of illegally entering
North Korea in March. The fact that Kim Jong-il issued a State pardon of the convicted journalists shortly after Clinton's meeting with him, thereby enabling Clinton to leave for the US the same night with the pardoned journalists indicated that North Korea had most probably agreed to the pardon even before Clinton's arrival and that Clinton went to Pyongyang not to seek their release, but to accept them.
3. Even though the US does not have diplomatic relations with North Korea, US officials had been visiting North Korea in the past. Madeleine
Albright, the US Secretary of State during Clinton's second term as the President, had visited Pyongyang. US diplomats associated with the six-party talks on North Korean denuclearisation had also been visiting Pyongyang off and on.
4. However, Clinton's visit has a special significance which none of the previous visits of other American emissaries had. This significance arises not merely from the fact that he is a former President of the US, but also from the fact that he is reputed to be playing an important role in advising the administration of President Barack Obama on important foreign policy matters.
5. The humanitarian purpose of the visit, which even hardline anti-Pyongyang hawks in the US cannot criticise, conceals an underlying political purpose---- namely, to begin an exploration of new diplomatic options for pressurising or persuading North Korea to agree to denuclearisation. The developments after North Korea carried out its nuclear test of May 25,2009, and the intransigence of North Korea have clearly brought out two things: firstly, China's unwillingness or inability to exercise pressure on North Korea beyond a limit. Secondly, the six-power talks on the denuclearisation issue on which the US had put all its eggs till now appeared to have run out of steam.
6. Instead of continuing to depend on China to bring about a moderation of North Korean policies, the Obama Adminstration would appear to have decided to try a direct diplomatic approach by using the Clinton visit to see whether other options---more productive than the six-power talks-- are available.
7. Three things are certain. Firstly, it was a political visit under a humanitarian cover. Secondly, the visit must have been undertaken with the knowledge and prior approval of Obama. Thirdly, when Clinton met Kim they must have discussed not only the release of the two journalists but also political issues of concern to the two countries such as US concerns over North Korea's nuclearisation and North Korea's concerns over a US-Japan-South Korea threat to its security.
8. The fact that Clinton was in Pyongyang only for a few hours would indicate that any discussions of a political significance would have been of a general, ice-breaking nature without going into details.
9. Kim's decision to receive Clinton and to respond positively to the request for the release of the journalists would clearly show that his hold over power is as strong as ever despite recent reports of a decline in his health.
10. Will the visit turn out to be of only one-shot significance relating to the release of the journalists or will there be a political follow-up? One has to wait and see.
11. Certain other questions of considerable interest are: How was the ground prepared for the visit? Did China play a role? If not, who
did? Why have the relatives of the released journalists thanked Clinton as well as Al Gore, his Vice-President, for making the release possible? Were Japan and South Korea kept in the picture? (5-8-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
INDIA-CHINA TRUST DEFICIT
B.RAMAN
These are the comments made by me in response to an E-mailed query from a South-East Asian journalist on the next round of border talks between India and China to be held shortly:
The deadlock in the border talks seems to continue over the issue of Arunachal Pradesh, which the Chinese call Southern Tibet. The Chinese are reported to be demanding that at least the Tawang Tract of Arunachal Pradesh, if not the whole of it, should be transferred to China. They are apparently adamant that there will be no border settlement without the transfer of at least Tawang to China.
2.Their claims to Tawang are based on the fact that the monastery at Tawang, according to them, has had historic relations with the monastery at Lhasa and that one of the previous Dalai Lamas was born in Tawang. India's position has been that any border settlement should not involve the transfer of populated areas. Tawang is a populated town. Its residents are Indian citizens. The Chinese had originally agreed to the principle that there should be no transfer of populated areas, but now they are reportedly insisting that this principle cannot apply to Tawang.
3. The atmosphere over the border issue has become somewhat tense recently following media reports that the Government of India had sanctioned the raising of two more Mountain Divisions for deployment in Arunachal Pradesh and that some planes of the Indian Air Foce had been deployed for the defence of Arunachal Pradesh. The Government of India has also embarked on a crash programme for the development of the road infrastructure in the Arunachal Pradesh area.
4. All these measures, which are of a purely defensive nature, were decided upon by the Government of India in reaction to the development of the road infrastructure in Tibet, the construction of the railway line to Lhasa and reports that China plans to extend this railway line from Lhasa to the Indian border and to connect its road network in Tibet with the Nepalese road network.
5.Till four years ago, the Government of India had given low priority to the development of road and other military-related infrastructure in Arunachal Pradesh in order to avoid bilateral tensions on this issue when the border talks were going on. But reports that China was strengthening its military-related infrastructure in Tibet led to a decision to take defensive measures in the Arunachal Pradesh area.
6. An increase in the number of Chinese troop intrusions into the Indian territory in this area also contributed to this decision.
7. In recent weeks, sections of the Chinese media, with the Global Times of the People's Daily group at the forefront, have started an angry campaign against India on this issue. They have not only been critical of alleged Indian actions in Arunachal Pradesh, but also very sarcastic about India's aspirations of becoming a major power. This sarcasm has annoyed Indian public opinion.
8.India has bilateral disputes with Pakistan as well as China. However, large sections of the civil societies in India and Pakistan are well disposed towards each other and want close relations. This is particularly true of the younger generation in India and Pakistan. This enables the political leaders of the two countries to make political gestures to each other.
9. In the case of China, large sections of the Indian civil society in all age groups---except in the leftist parties--- are suspicious of the Chinese military intentions and would not approve of any concessions or gestures of a political nature to Beijing. In China, the older generation has nostalgic memories of the good old days of Sino-Indian friendship, but the younger generation, which is very nationalistic, does not think well of India and is very critical of it. This suspicious attitude of the two civil societies would come in the way of any gestures or concessions by either side on the border issue for the present.
10. Despite this, the political leaders of India and China have shown wisdom in not allowing the border dispute to affect bilateral relations in other fields. Bilateral trade continues to gallop. China has overtaken the US as India's second largest trading partner. Chinese companies are winning an increasing number of construction contracts in India. An increasing number of Chinese students are coming to India for improving their English. The Chinese are less and less suspicious of Indian IT companies doing business in China as possible surrogates of the Indian intelligence. The Indians are less and less suspicious of Chinese construction companies winning contracts in India as possible surrogates of the Chinese intelligence. More and more Indian students are going to China to study medicine. There is a steadily developing military-to-military relationship with two joint counter-terrorism exercises, exchange of port visits by naval ships etc
11. Despite this increasing comfort level , there is still a trust deficit. Suspicions of each other's intentions and motives in matters such as China's military and nuclear related relationship with Pakistan and India's strategic relationship with the US and Japan continue to cast a shadow on the political relations and come in the way of a mutually acceptable border compromise.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
These are the comments made by me in response to an E-mailed query from a South-East Asian journalist on the next round of border talks between India and China to be held shortly:
The deadlock in the border talks seems to continue over the issue of Arunachal Pradesh, which the Chinese call Southern Tibet. The Chinese are reported to be demanding that at least the Tawang Tract of Arunachal Pradesh, if not the whole of it, should be transferred to China. They are apparently adamant that there will be no border settlement without the transfer of at least Tawang to China.
2.Their claims to Tawang are based on the fact that the monastery at Tawang, according to them, has had historic relations with the monastery at Lhasa and that one of the previous Dalai Lamas was born in Tawang. India's position has been that any border settlement should not involve the transfer of populated areas. Tawang is a populated town. Its residents are Indian citizens. The Chinese had originally agreed to the principle that there should be no transfer of populated areas, but now they are reportedly insisting that this principle cannot apply to Tawang.
3. The atmosphere over the border issue has become somewhat tense recently following media reports that the Government of India had sanctioned the raising of two more Mountain Divisions for deployment in Arunachal Pradesh and that some planes of the Indian Air Foce had been deployed for the defence of Arunachal Pradesh. The Government of India has also embarked on a crash programme for the development of the road infrastructure in the Arunachal Pradesh area.
4. All these measures, which are of a purely defensive nature, were decided upon by the Government of India in reaction to the development of the road infrastructure in Tibet, the construction of the railway line to Lhasa and reports that China plans to extend this railway line from Lhasa to the Indian border and to connect its road network in Tibet with the Nepalese road network.
5.Till four years ago, the Government of India had given low priority to the development of road and other military-related infrastructure in Arunachal Pradesh in order to avoid bilateral tensions on this issue when the border talks were going on. But reports that China was strengthening its military-related infrastructure in Tibet led to a decision to take defensive measures in the Arunachal Pradesh area.
6. An increase in the number of Chinese troop intrusions into the Indian territory in this area also contributed to this decision.
7. In recent weeks, sections of the Chinese media, with the Global Times of the People's Daily group at the forefront, have started an angry campaign against India on this issue. They have not only been critical of alleged Indian actions in Arunachal Pradesh, but also very sarcastic about India's aspirations of becoming a major power. This sarcasm has annoyed Indian public opinion.
8.India has bilateral disputes with Pakistan as well as China. However, large sections of the civil societies in India and Pakistan are well disposed towards each other and want close relations. This is particularly true of the younger generation in India and Pakistan. This enables the political leaders of the two countries to make political gestures to each other.
9. In the case of China, large sections of the Indian civil society in all age groups---except in the leftist parties--- are suspicious of the Chinese military intentions and would not approve of any concessions or gestures of a political nature to Beijing. In China, the older generation has nostalgic memories of the good old days of Sino-Indian friendship, but the younger generation, which is very nationalistic, does not think well of India and is very critical of it. This suspicious attitude of the two civil societies would come in the way of any gestures or concessions by either side on the border issue for the present.
10. Despite this, the political leaders of India and China have shown wisdom in not allowing the border dispute to affect bilateral relations in other fields. Bilateral trade continues to gallop. China has overtaken the US as India's second largest trading partner. Chinese companies are winning an increasing number of construction contracts in India. An increasing number of Chinese students are coming to India for improving their English. The Chinese are less and less suspicious of Indian IT companies doing business in China as possible surrogates of the Indian intelligence. The Indians are less and less suspicious of Chinese construction companies winning contracts in India as possible surrogates of the Chinese intelligence. More and more Indian students are going to China to study medicine. There is a steadily developing military-to-military relationship with two joint counter-terrorism exercises, exchange of port visits by naval ships etc
11. Despite this increasing comfort level , there is still a trust deficit. Suspicions of each other's intentions and motives in matters such as China's military and nuclear related relationship with Pakistan and India's strategic relationship with the US and Japan continue to cast a shadow on the political relations and come in the way of a mutually acceptable border compromise.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Monday, August 3, 2009
PRO-AL QAEDA ELEMENTS REGROUPING FOR FRESH STRIKES
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO. 545
B.RAMAN
Though there have been no reports of any violent incidents in the Xinjiang province of China for over three weeks now, the Chinese
authorities are taking no chances with internal security and law and order in the province.
2. The army units, which were inducted into the province after the violent disturbances from July 5 to 8,2009, in which over 190 persons, the majority of them Hans, were killed, continue to be in over-all charge of security and law and order. In recent days, President Hu Jintao has been travelling in the Yunnan province which has sizable Tibetan and Uighur populations and a number of other non-Han minority tribal communities. The Chinese media has projected the purpose of his visit to Yunnan as to study the economic situation there and the action taken by the local authorities to deal with the difficulties of the people.
3. While this may be so, there is a strong possibility that another purpose could have been to re-assure the non-Han minorities that Beijing was sympathetic to their problems. Last year, before the Olympics, there was an explosion in a bus in Kunming, the capital of the Yunnan province. Even though the Chinese authorities did not give any details of the subsequent investigation, the suspicion was focused on the local Tibetan and Uighur population. There are no indications that Hu went to Xinjiang from Yunnan.
4.The Chinese have been shaken by the recent disturbances in Urumqi, but they are not prepared to concede that the Uighur anger was triggered off by their discriminatory policies towards the non-Han minorities. They see no need for any change in their policy relating to the ethnic minorities. In other words, they see no need for re-visiting their present policy of encouraging the Hans to settle in the minority areas in large numbers. They believe that the Hans have the right to settle down and live in any part of the Chinese territory, including in the areas which are looked upon by the minorities as their traditional homeland, just as the Tibetans, the Uighurs and other non-Han minorities have the right to settle down and live in any part of China. They do not accept the argument that the Hans moving into non-Han areas amounts to a Han colonisation of these areas. They have thus totally ruled out any change in their present policies, which are viewed by the minorities as meant to change the demographic composition of the non-Han areas.
5. There are strong indicators from independent sources in the Uighur diaspora in Pakistan that the disturbances in Xinjiang in the first week of July were initially externally-instigated by the Munich-based and US-funded World Uighur Congress (WUC) headed by the US-based Rebiya Kadeer and subsequently exploited by the North Waziristan (in Pakistan) based Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan (IMET), which operates in tandem with Al Qaeda as a member of its International Islamic Front (IIF) for Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish
People formed in 1998.
6. The Chinese have been greatly concerned over threats purported to have been disseminated by the IMET through the Internet calling for opportunistic acts of reprisal against Han Chinese wherever found. The Chinese diplomatic missions in Pakistan and Turkey have cautioned their citizens working in these countries to cut down their movements to the absolute minimum that is necessary. The Chinese Foreign Office has also issued advisories to its citizens to avoid traveling to Turkey for some time till the anti-Chinese anger in Turkey subsides.
7.The Chinese concerns over the security situation in Tibet and Xinjiang have been increased by the forthcoming 60th anniversary of the October Revolution, which they plan to observe in a big way all over China . While there are no reports at present of the likelihood of any fresh violence in the Tibetan areas, Chinese security authorities do not rule out the possibility of fresh acts of violence by the Uighurs in China itself as well as in other countries. They have stepped up preventive arrests in Xinjiang. Nearly 1900 Uighur suspects are estimated to be in preventive custody in jails in Xinjiang itself as well as in Sichuan.
8. The Chinese are closely monitoring the movements of Rebiya Kadeer, who has gone to Australia after a visit to Japan and is expected to go to Turkey. Despite strong opposition from Beijing, the authorities in Japan and Australia issued her a visa. The Chinese have been gratified by media reports that India declined her request for a visa.
9. Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have been closely monitoring the activities of various pro-Al Qaeda groups operating in Xinjiang, the Central Asian Republics (CARs), Chechnya and Dagestan in Russia. Recent reports indicate that the Uzbecks, Chechens and Uighurs trained in Al Qaeda training camps in North Waziristan have started moving towards their home bases in order to step up their jihad against the Governments of these countries and to disrupt the movement of logistic supplies to the US and other NATO troops through their territory.
10. It is the assessment of well-informed Pakistani Police sources in the Pashtun areas that during the last two weeks there has been a decrease in the activities of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan because trained TTP elements have been moving into Afghanistan to help the Afghan Taliban in its operations against the US-UK offensive in the
Helmand province of Afghanistan. The TTP cadres are going in replacement of the Uighurs, Uzbeks and Chechens who are being moved towards Central Asia, Xinjiang and Chechnya. This also suits the Pakistan Army since it relieves pressure on it.
11.An upsurge in acts of terrorism in this region is apprehended. Russia cannot afford to be complacent over the situation in Chechnya and Dagestan. As the fighting in Afghanistan escalates, reprisal attacks by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations in areas such as South-East, South and Central Asia and in the Muslim majority regions of Russia is a possibility to be reckoned with. (4-8-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associate with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Though there have been no reports of any violent incidents in the Xinjiang province of China for over three weeks now, the Chinese
authorities are taking no chances with internal security and law and order in the province.
2. The army units, which were inducted into the province after the violent disturbances from July 5 to 8,2009, in which over 190 persons, the majority of them Hans, were killed, continue to be in over-all charge of security and law and order. In recent days, President Hu Jintao has been travelling in the Yunnan province which has sizable Tibetan and Uighur populations and a number of other non-Han minority tribal communities. The Chinese media has projected the purpose of his visit to Yunnan as to study the economic situation there and the action taken by the local authorities to deal with the difficulties of the people.
3. While this may be so, there is a strong possibility that another purpose could have been to re-assure the non-Han minorities that Beijing was sympathetic to their problems. Last year, before the Olympics, there was an explosion in a bus in Kunming, the capital of the Yunnan province. Even though the Chinese authorities did not give any details of the subsequent investigation, the suspicion was focused on the local Tibetan and Uighur population. There are no indications that Hu went to Xinjiang from Yunnan.
4.The Chinese have been shaken by the recent disturbances in Urumqi, but they are not prepared to concede that the Uighur anger was triggered off by their discriminatory policies towards the non-Han minorities. They see no need for any change in their policy relating to the ethnic minorities. In other words, they see no need for re-visiting their present policy of encouraging the Hans to settle in the minority areas in large numbers. They believe that the Hans have the right to settle down and live in any part of the Chinese territory, including in the areas which are looked upon by the minorities as their traditional homeland, just as the Tibetans, the Uighurs and other non-Han minorities have the right to settle down and live in any part of China. They do not accept the argument that the Hans moving into non-Han areas amounts to a Han colonisation of these areas. They have thus totally ruled out any change in their present policies, which are viewed by the minorities as meant to change the demographic composition of the non-Han areas.
5. There are strong indicators from independent sources in the Uighur diaspora in Pakistan that the disturbances in Xinjiang in the first week of July were initially externally-instigated by the Munich-based and US-funded World Uighur Congress (WUC) headed by the US-based Rebiya Kadeer and subsequently exploited by the North Waziristan (in Pakistan) based Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan (IMET), which operates in tandem with Al Qaeda as a member of its International Islamic Front (IIF) for Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish
People formed in 1998.
6. The Chinese have been greatly concerned over threats purported to have been disseminated by the IMET through the Internet calling for opportunistic acts of reprisal against Han Chinese wherever found. The Chinese diplomatic missions in Pakistan and Turkey have cautioned their citizens working in these countries to cut down their movements to the absolute minimum that is necessary. The Chinese Foreign Office has also issued advisories to its citizens to avoid traveling to Turkey for some time till the anti-Chinese anger in Turkey subsides.
7.The Chinese concerns over the security situation in Tibet and Xinjiang have been increased by the forthcoming 60th anniversary of the October Revolution, which they plan to observe in a big way all over China . While there are no reports at present of the likelihood of any fresh violence in the Tibetan areas, Chinese security authorities do not rule out the possibility of fresh acts of violence by the Uighurs in China itself as well as in other countries. They have stepped up preventive arrests in Xinjiang. Nearly 1900 Uighur suspects are estimated to be in preventive custody in jails in Xinjiang itself as well as in Sichuan.
8. The Chinese are closely monitoring the movements of Rebiya Kadeer, who has gone to Australia after a visit to Japan and is expected to go to Turkey. Despite strong opposition from Beijing, the authorities in Japan and Australia issued her a visa. The Chinese have been gratified by media reports that India declined her request for a visa.
9. Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have been closely monitoring the activities of various pro-Al Qaeda groups operating in Xinjiang, the Central Asian Republics (CARs), Chechnya and Dagestan in Russia. Recent reports indicate that the Uzbecks, Chechens and Uighurs trained in Al Qaeda training camps in North Waziristan have started moving towards their home bases in order to step up their jihad against the Governments of these countries and to disrupt the movement of logistic supplies to the US and other NATO troops through their territory.
10. It is the assessment of well-informed Pakistani Police sources in the Pashtun areas that during the last two weeks there has been a decrease in the activities of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan because trained TTP elements have been moving into Afghanistan to help the Afghan Taliban in its operations against the US-UK offensive in the
Helmand province of Afghanistan. The TTP cadres are going in replacement of the Uighurs, Uzbeks and Chechens who are being moved towards Central Asia, Xinjiang and Chechnya. This also suits the Pakistan Army since it relieves pressure on it.
11.An upsurge in acts of terrorism in this region is apprehended. Russia cannot afford to be complacent over the situation in Chechnya and Dagestan. As the fighting in Afghanistan escalates, reprisal attacks by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations in areas such as South-East, South and Central Asia and in the Muslim majority regions of Russia is a possibility to be reckoned with. (4-8-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associate with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ROBIN RAPHEL: OLD ANTI-INDIA HAND TO JOIN HOLBROOKE'S TEAM ?
B.RAMAN
The “News”, the Pakistani daily, has reported on August 3,2009, that the Barack Obama Administration has decided to appoint Robin Raphel, who was a Counselor for Political Affairs in the US Embassy in New Delhi from 1991 to 1993 and subsequently became the Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs in the Bill Clinton Administration, as a member of the team of Richard Holbrooke, the Special Representative to the Af-Pak region.
2.According to the paper, she will be based in Pakistan and will co-ordinate the implementation of the plan for non-military assistance to Pakistan. She is expected to arrive in Pakistan on August 14,2009. Her bio-data as taken from the Wikipedia is annexed.
3. During her posting in the US Embassy in New Delhi, she was actively interacting with the various anti-India groups in Jammu & Kashmir and it was reportedly on her advice that the Hurriyat, as an umbrella organization of these groups, became very active.
4.After Bill Clinton assumed office as the President in January,1993, she joined the State Department as the Assistant Secretary of State in charge of South Asian Affairs under Warren Christopher, who was the Secretary of State. It used to be said that she knew the Clintons from her younger days and this gave her easy access to the President despite her junior position in the State Department. She exploited this to prevent Pakistan being declared as a State sponsor of terrorism after the Mumbai blasts of March,1993.
5. It was during her tenure as the Assistant Secretary of State that the Clinton Administration declared Jammu & Kashmir as a “disputed territory” and started calling for the resolution of the dispute between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir issue in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiri people. This refrain has once again been taken up by the Obama Administration.
6. Towards the end of 1993 , during a non-attributable discussion with some Indian journalists in Washington DC she reportedly defended this formulation and contended that the US considered the Kashmiri territory transferred by Pakistan to China in 1963 when Ayub Khan was the President also as disputed territory, whose future was yet to be decided.
7. The “Times of India” prominently carried this story on the front page without identifying the official of the State Department who had talked to the Indian journalists on the Kashmir issue. Enquiries made by the Government of India identified the official as Robin Raphel.
8. It was during her stewardship of the South Asian Affairs portfolio in the State Department that the Taliban under Mulla Mohammad Omar came into existence in 1994 with the joint support of the Pakistan and US Governments. The Taliban was prepared to support the construction of an oil and gas pipeline by UNOCAL, an American oil company, from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan and she had met Mulla Mohammad Omar in this connection. This period also saw Osama bin Laden shift from Khartoum to Jalalabad in 1996 without any objection from the US. The Taliban later shifted him to Kandahar.
9. Even after she left the State Department and joined the faculty of the National Defence University, she reportedly maintained active contacts with anti-India elements in J&K.
10. The “News” has correctly described her as “one known to be Pakistan’s friend”.
11.She is.
12. The text of the “News” report is also annexed. (3-8-2009)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE I
BIO OF ROBIN RAPHEL FROM WIKIPEDIA
Robin L. Raphel is a career diplomat who served as Ambassador to Tunisia and Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs during the Clinton administration. In this capacity she managed U.S. relations with the newly formed Taliban government in Afghanistan. She also served as a member of the Iraq Reconstruction Team during the Bush administration.
She began her career as a lecturer in history at Damavand College in Tehran, Iran. She first worked for the United States Government as an economic analyst for the CIA from 1973 to 1975. She then moved to Islamabad, Pakistan where she worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development as an economic/financial analyst. She then joined the State Department.
Upon her return to Washington, DC in 1978, Ambassador Raphel worked in the Office of Investment Affairs in the Economic and Business Bureau; on the Israel Desk; Staff Aide for the Assistant Secretary for the Near East and South Asian Affairs Bureau; and as Special Assistant to the Under Secretary for Political Affairs. In 1984 she was assigned to the U.S. Embassy in London where she covered Middle East, South Asia and East Asia, and Africa.
She served as Counselor for Political Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria (1988-1991), and at the U.S.Embassy in New Delhi (1991-1993). In August 1993, she was named the first Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs. She retired
from the State Department in 2005 after 30 years of service.
Ambassador Raphel received a B.A. in history and economics from the University of Washington. She pursued graduate studies in history at Cambridge University and earned an M.A. in economics from the University of Maryland. Her foreign languages are French and Urdu. She was at one time married to the late ambassador Arnold Lewis Raphel, but they divorced prior to his death in 1988.
She is currently the Senior Vice President at Cassidy & Associates, a firm that works on consultancy in international relations. She was responsible for the lobbying for Pakistan in the State Department and the firm had a $1.2 million contract with the Govt of Pakistan. This contract was withdrawn by the firm due to the martial law in Pakistan. ( My comment: Not martial law, but the state of emergency)
ANNEXURE II
REPORT CARRIED BY THE “NEWS” OF PAKISTAN ON AUGUST 3,2009
Robin Raphel gets key job in Pakistan
Monday, August 03, 2009
By Qudssia Akhlaque
ISLAMABAD: The Obama administration in an astute move has decided to appoint former US assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, Robin Raphel, an old South Asia hand and one known to be Pakistan’s friend, as coordinator for non-military assistance to Pakistan, it was learnt.
Appointed as a key member of Obama’s Pakistan team, Ambassador Raphel’s mandate will be to coordinate the effort to determine, in consultation with the Pakistani authorities, how best to allocate the increased US funding for non-military assistance, informed diplomatic sources in Washington and Islamabad told The News.
Raphel will be a new member of the US special envoy Richard Holbrooke’s expanding team and she will be based in Pakistan.
Holbrooke was appointed Special Representative to Pakistan and Afghanistan by the Obama administration in January to coordinate US government’s efforts in the region. Raphel will be reporting to Holbrooke in Washington, and at Islamabad to the US ambassador. A formal announcement about her appointment is expected shortly.
In her new position she is expected to cohesively carry together the different strands of non-military US engagement with Pakistan — economic, development, political and civilian security. Ambassador Raphel will be “also overseeing the ramp up of US civilian assistance effort in anticipation of the final passage of the Kerry-Lugar Bill 2009,” an insider explained.
The passage of the Kerry-Lugar bill means approval of tripling of civilian US aid to Pakistan to about $1.5 billion per annum for each of the next five years in a key part of a strategy to combat extremism with economic and social development. The $1.5 billion in annual funding includes money for schools, judicial system, parliament and law-enforcement agencies in Pakistan.
As Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs during the Clinton administration in the 90s, Raphel had a similar role within the region. She particularly played an important part in managing US relations with the newly formed Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Ambassador Robin Raphel is currently the senior vice-president of a Washington-based lobbying consulting firm Cassidy & Associates that provides counselling to multinational corporations, foreign countries and other organisations to advocate their US-based interests in Washington, and US corporations to meet business challenges abroad.
Raphel will be coming here on August 14 for initially a couple of weeks for consultations with the top political leadership after which she will go back to Washington, sources told The News. She will then return around mid September and be stationed here for one whole year.
This is not the first time that Raphel will be based in Pakistan. In mid 70s she was here in Islamabad working as an Economic and financial analyst for the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
Ambassador Robin Raphel is generally considered to be very sympathetic towards Pakistan and enjoys goodwill in the country’s civilian as well as military circles. Even after her retirement from the State Department in 2005 after 30 years of service, Ambassador Raphel has been in touch with Pakistan through participation in seminars and conferences.
More recently she was responsible for lobbying for Pakistan in the State Department and her firm had a $1.2 million contract with the government of Pakistan. However, this contract was abruptly terminated by the firm following the declaration of emergency rule in Pakistan by President Gen (retd.) Pervez Musharraf on Nov 3, 2007.
The “News”, the Pakistani daily, has reported on August 3,2009, that the Barack Obama Administration has decided to appoint Robin Raphel, who was a Counselor for Political Affairs in the US Embassy in New Delhi from 1991 to 1993 and subsequently became the Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs in the Bill Clinton Administration, as a member of the team of Richard Holbrooke, the Special Representative to the Af-Pak region.
2.According to the paper, she will be based in Pakistan and will co-ordinate the implementation of the plan for non-military assistance to Pakistan. She is expected to arrive in Pakistan on August 14,2009. Her bio-data as taken from the Wikipedia is annexed.
3. During her posting in the US Embassy in New Delhi, she was actively interacting with the various anti-India groups in Jammu & Kashmir and it was reportedly on her advice that the Hurriyat, as an umbrella organization of these groups, became very active.
4.After Bill Clinton assumed office as the President in January,1993, she joined the State Department as the Assistant Secretary of State in charge of South Asian Affairs under Warren Christopher, who was the Secretary of State. It used to be said that she knew the Clintons from her younger days and this gave her easy access to the President despite her junior position in the State Department. She exploited this to prevent Pakistan being declared as a State sponsor of terrorism after the Mumbai blasts of March,1993.
5. It was during her tenure as the Assistant Secretary of State that the Clinton Administration declared Jammu & Kashmir as a “disputed territory” and started calling for the resolution of the dispute between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir issue in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiri people. This refrain has once again been taken up by the Obama Administration.
6. Towards the end of 1993 , during a non-attributable discussion with some Indian journalists in Washington DC she reportedly defended this formulation and contended that the US considered the Kashmiri territory transferred by Pakistan to China in 1963 when Ayub Khan was the President also as disputed territory, whose future was yet to be decided.
7. The “Times of India” prominently carried this story on the front page without identifying the official of the State Department who had talked to the Indian journalists on the Kashmir issue. Enquiries made by the Government of India identified the official as Robin Raphel.
8. It was during her stewardship of the South Asian Affairs portfolio in the State Department that the Taliban under Mulla Mohammad Omar came into existence in 1994 with the joint support of the Pakistan and US Governments. The Taliban was prepared to support the construction of an oil and gas pipeline by UNOCAL, an American oil company, from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan and she had met Mulla Mohammad Omar in this connection. This period also saw Osama bin Laden shift from Khartoum to Jalalabad in 1996 without any objection from the US. The Taliban later shifted him to Kandahar.
9. Even after she left the State Department and joined the faculty of the National Defence University, she reportedly maintained active contacts with anti-India elements in J&K.
10. The “News” has correctly described her as “one known to be Pakistan’s friend”.
11.She is.
12. The text of the “News” report is also annexed. (3-8-2009)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE I
BIO OF ROBIN RAPHEL FROM WIKIPEDIA
Robin L. Raphel is a career diplomat who served as Ambassador to Tunisia and Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs during the Clinton administration. In this capacity she managed U.S. relations with the newly formed Taliban government in Afghanistan. She also served as a member of the Iraq Reconstruction Team during the Bush administration.
She began her career as a lecturer in history at Damavand College in Tehran, Iran. She first worked for the United States Government as an economic analyst for the CIA from 1973 to 1975. She then moved to Islamabad, Pakistan where she worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development as an economic/financial analyst. She then joined the State Department.
Upon her return to Washington, DC in 1978, Ambassador Raphel worked in the Office of Investment Affairs in the Economic and Business Bureau; on the Israel Desk; Staff Aide for the Assistant Secretary for the Near East and South Asian Affairs Bureau; and as Special Assistant to the Under Secretary for Political Affairs. In 1984 she was assigned to the U.S. Embassy in London where she covered Middle East, South Asia and East Asia, and Africa.
She served as Counselor for Political Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria (1988-1991), and at the U.S.Embassy in New Delhi (1991-1993). In August 1993, she was named the first Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs. She retired
from the State Department in 2005 after 30 years of service.
Ambassador Raphel received a B.A. in history and economics from the University of Washington. She pursued graduate studies in history at Cambridge University and earned an M.A. in economics from the University of Maryland. Her foreign languages are French and Urdu. She was at one time married to the late ambassador Arnold Lewis Raphel, but they divorced prior to his death in 1988.
She is currently the Senior Vice President at Cassidy & Associates, a firm that works on consultancy in international relations. She was responsible for the lobbying for Pakistan in the State Department and the firm had a $1.2 million contract with the Govt of Pakistan. This contract was withdrawn by the firm due to the martial law in Pakistan. ( My comment: Not martial law, but the state of emergency)
ANNEXURE II
REPORT CARRIED BY THE “NEWS” OF PAKISTAN ON AUGUST 3,2009
Robin Raphel gets key job in Pakistan
Monday, August 03, 2009
By Qudssia Akhlaque
ISLAMABAD: The Obama administration in an astute move has decided to appoint former US assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, Robin Raphel, an old South Asia hand and one known to be Pakistan’s friend, as coordinator for non-military assistance to Pakistan, it was learnt.
Appointed as a key member of Obama’s Pakistan team, Ambassador Raphel’s mandate will be to coordinate the effort to determine, in consultation with the Pakistani authorities, how best to allocate the increased US funding for non-military assistance, informed diplomatic sources in Washington and Islamabad told The News.
Raphel will be a new member of the US special envoy Richard Holbrooke’s expanding team and she will be based in Pakistan.
Holbrooke was appointed Special Representative to Pakistan and Afghanistan by the Obama administration in January to coordinate US government’s efforts in the region. Raphel will be reporting to Holbrooke in Washington, and at Islamabad to the US ambassador. A formal announcement about her appointment is expected shortly.
In her new position she is expected to cohesively carry together the different strands of non-military US engagement with Pakistan — economic, development, political and civilian security. Ambassador Raphel will be “also overseeing the ramp up of US civilian assistance effort in anticipation of the final passage of the Kerry-Lugar Bill 2009,” an insider explained.
The passage of the Kerry-Lugar bill means approval of tripling of civilian US aid to Pakistan to about $1.5 billion per annum for each of the next five years in a key part of a strategy to combat extremism with economic and social development. The $1.5 billion in annual funding includes money for schools, judicial system, parliament and law-enforcement agencies in Pakistan.
As Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs during the Clinton administration in the 90s, Raphel had a similar role within the region. She particularly played an important part in managing US relations with the newly formed Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Ambassador Robin Raphel is currently the senior vice-president of a Washington-based lobbying consulting firm Cassidy & Associates that provides counselling to multinational corporations, foreign countries and other organisations to advocate their US-based interests in Washington, and US corporations to meet business challenges abroad.
Raphel will be coming here on August 14 for initially a couple of weeks for consultations with the top political leadership after which she will go back to Washington, sources told The News. She will then return around mid September and be stationed here for one whole year.
This is not the first time that Raphel will be based in Pakistan. In mid 70s she was here in Islamabad working as an Economic and financial analyst for the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
Ambassador Robin Raphel is generally considered to be very sympathetic towards Pakistan and enjoys goodwill in the country’s civilian as well as military circles. Even after her retirement from the State Department in 2005 after 30 years of service, Ambassador Raphel has been in touch with Pakistan through participation in seminars and conferences.
More recently she was responsible for lobbying for Pakistan in the State Department and her firm had a $1.2 million contract with the government of Pakistan. However, this contract was abruptly terminated by the firm following the declaration of emergency rule in Pakistan by President Gen (retd.) Pervez Musharraf on Nov 3, 2007.
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