B.RAMAN
The campaign web sites of Mr.Mitt Romney, the
Republican candidate for the US Presidential elections, discuss his likely
foreign policy under the following heads:
•Afghanistan & Pakistan
•China &
East Asia
•Iran
•Israel
•Latin
America
•Middle East
•Russia
2.In the geographical areas of priority indicated
by his campaign aides, the Af-Pak region figures on top followed by China and
East Asia. Russia is the last. Surprisingly, India and South Asia do not figure
in these areas of priority.
3. During the Presidential primaries and
subsequently, there were not many strong indicators from Mr.Romney personally
regarding what would be his policy towards India, the Pakistani use of
terrorism against India and the Indian interests in Afghanistan.
4.The only strong indicators regarding his view of
Indo-US relations have come from his senior aides. Mr.Mitchell B Reiss, a
senior foreign policy advisor to Mr. Romney,
who had worked as Director of Policy Planning at the State Department
under Gen .Colin Powell during the first term of Mr.George Bush and as special
envoy to Northern Ireland peace process under Ms.Condoleezza Rice during
Mr.Bush’s second term, has said: “The strategic partnership between India and
the United States `retreated' under the Obama Administration. A momentum was
built under the presidency of George Bush, which was lost during Obama's tenure
at the White House. There is a need to find more areas of cooperation between
the two countries that will be mutually beneficial. The two countries share a
mutually beneficial relationship in different fields including economy,
diplomacy as well as military and security. There is a retreat under the
current administration. The Romney Administration will look to restore the
relationship and forge a strong strategic partnership with India, which is the world's largest democracy. “
5. Mr.Romney’s campaign rhetoric has been muted on
the question of continued Pakistani state sponsorship of terrorism against India and what kind of pressure his
Administration might be inclined to exert against Pakistan on this issue.
6.As against this, Mr.Romney has been personally
very forthcoming on the likely policies of his Administration towards Pakistan
in the context of the developments in Afghanistan. He has not left the
articulation of his views to his senior aides as he seems to have done in the
case of India.
7. During a TV debate on November 11,2011,
Mr.Romney said: “The right way to deal with Pakistan is to recognize that
Pakistan is not a country like other countries, with a strong political centre
that you can go to and say, "Gee, can we come here? Will you take care of
this problem?" This is, instead, a nation which is close to being a failed
state. I hope it doesn't reach that point, but it's a very fragile nation. It
really has four centres of power: the ISI, which is their intelligence
services, the military, separate group. You have the political structure, and
of course, the fundamentalists. And so we have to work with our friends in that
country to get them to do some of the things we can't do ourselves. Bringing
our troops into Pakistan and announcing at a stage like this that, as President,
we would throw American troops into Pakistan, could be highly incendiary in a
setting like that. Right now, they're comfortable with our using drones to go
after the people that are-- that are representing the greatest threat.”
8. Mr.Romney further said in the same debate: “We
have agreement with the people that we need to have agreement with to be able
to use drones to strike at the people that represent a threat. And one of the
things we have to do with our foreign aid commitments, the ongoing foreign aid
commitments. You start everything at zero. But one of the things we have to do
is have understanding with the various power bases within the country that
they're gonna have to allow us, or they themselves go after the Taliban and
Haqqani network to make sure they do not
destabilize Afghanistan, particularly as we're pulling our troops out.”
9. During a national security debate
on Afghanistan in the CNN on November 22,2011,,Mr.Romney said: “We spent about
$450 billion so far, 1,700 or so service men and women have lost their lives there,
and many tens of thousands have been wounded. Our effort there is to keep
Afghanistan from becoming a launching point for terror against the United
States. We can't just write off a major part of the world. Pakistan is the
sixth largest country in the world. We can't just say goodbye to all of what's going on in that part of the world. Instead,
we want to draw them toward modernity. And for that to happen, we don't want to
literally pull up stakes and run out of town after the extraordinary investment
that we've made. And that means we should have a gradual transition of handing
off to the Afghan security forces the responsibility for their own country. And
for the region, what happened in Indonesia back in the 1960s, where we helped
Indonesia move toward modernity with new leadership. We brought them in the technology that allowed
them to trade in the world. We need to bring Pakistan into the 21st century --
or the 20th century, for that matter, so that they can engage throughout the world with trade
and with modernity. Right now, American approval level in Pakistan is 12 per cent. We're not doing a
very good job with this huge investment we make of $4.5 billion a year. We can
do a lot better directing that to encourage people to take advantage of the
extraordinary opportunities the West and freedom represent for their people.”
10. A paper on Mr.Romney’s likely foreign policy
prepared by his aides in November,2011, said:
“Our mission in Afghanistan is to eliminate al
Qaeda from the region and degrade the Taliban and other insurgent groups to the
point where they are not existential threats to the Afghan government and do
not destabilize Pakistan, with its stock of nuclear weapons. Our objective is to
ensure that Afghanistan will never again become a launching pad for terror and
to send a message to any other nation that would harbour terrorists with
designs on the American homeland.
“Mitt Romney will never make national-security
decisions based upon electoral politics. Upon taking office, he will review our
transition to the Afghan military by holding discussions with our commanders in
the field. He will order a full interagency assessment of our military and
assistance presence in Afghanistan to determine the level required to secure
our gains and to train Afghan forces to the point where they can protect the
sovereignty of Afghanistan from the tyranny of the Taliban. Withdrawal of U.S.
forces from Afghanistan under a Romney administration will be based on
conditions on the ground as assessed by our military commanders.
“To defeat the insurgency in Afghanistan, the
United States will need the cooperation of both the Afghan and Pakistani
governments. It is in the interests of all three nations to see that
Afghanistan and the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region are rid of the Taliban
and other insurgent groups. Mitt Romney will work with both the Afghan
government and Pakistan to ensure that those nations are fully contributing to
success in Afghanistan. But we will only persuade Afghanistan and Pakistan to
be resolute if they are convinced that the United States will itself be
resolute. Only an America that appears fully committed to success will
eliminate the incentives for them to hedge their bets by aligning with opposing
forces.
“The United States must be clear in what we require
of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghan President Hamid Karzai should
understand that our commitment must be met with reciprocal efforts to crack
down on corruption in his government, respect free and fair elections as
required by the Afghan constitution, and coordinate with the United States on
fighting the narcotics trade that fuels the insurgency. Pakistan should
understand that any connection between insurgent forces and Pakistan’s security
and intelligence forces must be severed. The United States enjoys significant
leverage over both of these nations. We should not be shy about using it."
11. Before the New
Hampshire primary in January 2012, Mr.Romney said: “Pakistan is playing both
sides -- going after the Taliban within its borders in some cases and helping
it in others. That's unacceptable. It's pretty straightforward to say, `Listen
guys, you can't play both sides of this game. You've got to decide if you're
with us or with them. If you're with them, that will have a very significant
consequence. If you're with us, that's very good thing.' He did not clarify
what those consequence might be.
12. It is evident that Mr.Romney will follow a
two-pronged policy on Afghanistan. Firstly, a review of the Af-Pak strategy to
decide what should be the level of US troop commitments and presence there.
Secondly, using the leverages available to the US against Pakistan and
Afghanistan to make them co-operate in the implementation of the new strategy
drawn up by him. On the fight against Al Qaeda he has expressed himself in
favour of continuing with Mr.Obama’s use of Drone strikes while avoiding the
involvement of US ground troops against the terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistani
territory.
13.It would be wrong to interpret the meagre
indicators on the likely policy towards India and on the question of continued
Pakistani use of terrorism against India as indicating his lack of interest or
indifference on this issue. It is more due to the fact that the US TV
moderators and anchors are hardly interested in Indo-US relations and don’t try
to draw him out on this subject.
14.It is, however, evident that his main foreign
policy priority in this region is going to be the stabilisation of the ground
situation in Afghanistan and keeping up the campaign of attrition against Al Qaeda
elements operating from Pakistani territory with the co-operation of
Afghanistan and Pakistan. He gives the impression of not being in a hurry, as
Mr.Obama is, to thin out the US military presence in Afghanistan. ( 7-10-12)
(The writer
is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,
and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate
of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter @SORBONNE75)
