ANTI-US PROTESTS BY SOME MUSLIMS IN CHENNAI

 

B.RAMAN

A group of about 1500 Muslims staged an ugly demonstration outside the US Consulate-General in Chennai on the evening of September 14,2012, in protest against a derogatory film on Islam and its Holy Prophet  produced by an unidentified person in the US.

2.A video clip from the film with Arabic sub-titles uploaded on to the Internet has led to a series of anti-US demonstrations by Muslims in some countries of the world, with the demonstrations taking violent form in some places. During a demonstration outside the US Consulate in Benghazi in Libya on September 11,2012, a small group of heavily armed Muslims launched a commando-style attack on the Consulate resulting in the death of the US Ambassador to Libya and three other US officials.

3. The involvement of the Ansar al-Sharia (Supporters of the Sharia), an affiliate of Al Qaeda, is suspected in the Benghazi attack. The Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, is also called Ansar al-Sharia. One does not know as yet whether the Ansar suspected in the Benghazi attack is the Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda or whether it is a different organisation of Libyan roots.

4. The Bengaluru Police are presently interrogating 18 educated Muslim youths arrested in Bengaluru, Hubli, Hyderabad and Maharashtra on charges of conspiring to assassinate a number of Hindu personalities believed sympathetic to the Hindutva movement. According to the Bengaluru Police, the Muslim suspects in their custody were self-motivated by visiting the web site of AQAP in Yemen, also known as the Ansar al-Sharia.

5. Muslim fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan and West Asia , including the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the parent organisation of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), responsible for the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai, had called for world-wide anti-US protest rallies against the film by Muslims after the Friday prayers on September 14.Media reports indicate that there was some response to this call in Jammu & Kashmir. Surprisingly and disquietingly, some Muslims of Chennai appear to have responded to this call after the Friday prayers in a local mosque.

6. To quote from the report carried by “The Hindu” on the protest rally in Chennai: “ A protest against controversial American film Innocence of Muslims turned violent on Friday when the US Consulate-General on Anna Salai here was attacked by hundreds of protesters who breached police security cordon with ease. A crowd of 1500 people from the Tamil Nadu Muslim Munnetra Kazhagam (TNMMK) and a few other Muslim outfits targeted the mission. They pelted it with stones, burnt the American flag and pictures of President Barack Obama and damaged CCTV cameras, a police booth and instructions boards for visitors…. A large group raising anti-US slogans marched from outside New College in Royapettah towards the Consulate. Consulate security personnel shut the doors to bar their entry. Iron railings and paintings on the building’s compound wall were ruined. A small group tried to scale the Consulate’s wall on Cathedral Road and damaged the doors and glass panels of the security chamber.”

7. “The Hindu” has further reported as follows: “ The State Intelligence had communicated a specific input on the possibility of an attack on the US Consulate in Chennai. However, the attack on the Consulate caught the police unawares as it was planned and well-organised with the protesters deviating from the original route to reach the target and having come armed with stones. Preliminary investigation revealed that a sizeable number of protesters came from the Tambaram side to join the main group of TMMK agitators. After burning a couple of US flags, they ran towards the Consulate raising slogans and stoned the building. They were joined by a few more youths from the Thousand Lights area.”

8. The details of what happened in Chennai disturbingly resemble what happened in the Azad Maidan in Mumbai last month and what took place in Benghazi on September 11.While a large number of Muslims were peacefully demonstrating or holding a meeting, small groups of violent Muslim youth entered the scene and tried to indulge in violence. While in Mumbai and Chennai, the Muslim youth who indulged in violence were armed only with stones, in Benghazi they carried rifles and rocket-propelled grenades resulting in fatalities.

9. South India has had a history of Islamic radicalism. A founding father of the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) was from Kerala. During the 1990s, a jihadi terrorist organisation called Al Umma was very active in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. It carried out a number of acts of terrorism in Tamil Nadu, including the serial blasts in Coimbatore in February,1998, coinciding with a visit of Shri L.K.Advani, the BJP leader, to that town. The Tamil Nadu Police managed to arrest the leaders of the organisation and prosecute them. It has become dormant as a terrorist organisation, but it is believed that some of those presently associated with the TNMMK were originally associated with Al Umma when it was active.

10. Ten years ago, the Tamil Nadu Police discovered an attempt by a Saudi Arabia based cadre of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) to float a new jihadi organisation in Tamil Nadu called the Muslim Self-Defence Force. It did not make much progress. It was reported that the investigations made by the Police in North India brought out that at least one training/motivational  camp of the Indian Mujahideen was held in Kerala.

11. After the recent anti-Muslim violence in the Rakhine State of Myanmar and our Assam, an organisation based in Hyderabad , Andhra Pradesh, came to notice for disseminating exaggerated accounts of the violence with the help of morphed images. The recent exodus of a large number of our citizens from the North-East working and living in Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad followed dissemination of motivated rumours warning of retaliatory attacks on people from the North-East. The people and cells behind this conspiracy have not yet been identified, arrested and prosecuted. And then, we had the arrest of 18 Muslim suspects with ideological vibrations for AQAP of Yemen.

12. The chain of developments outlined above indicate a web of Islamic radicalism in the South the full ramifications of which seem to have defied detection by the police and the central intelligence agencies. The well-organised and ugly protests outside the US Consulate in Chennai draw attention to the need to unravel and neutralise this web before it gets out of control and embarks on a path of AQAP style jihadi terrorism.( 15-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

WILL PM PRESS AHEAD WITH HIS ECONOMIC DECISIONS?

 

B.RAMAN

The three important economic decisions taken by the Government of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh on September 13 and 14,2012, are not going to herald an economic  miracle for tomorrow.

2. These decisions relate to a significant increase in the price of diesel and permitting foreign direct investment in the civil aviation and retail sectors. The decision on civil aviation was expected by the political class as whole, but that relating to the retail sector was not. The Government’s earlier attempt some months ago to permit FDI in the retail sector had to be given up due to strong opposition from some constituents of the ruling coalition as well as from the opposition BJP.

3. Despite the persisting slide-down in the economy, the Government of Dr.Manmohan Singh was avoiding taking these important decisions till now due to fears of adverse political consequences. Such adverse consequences might have been in the form of a break-up of the ruling coalition and consequent mid-term polls.

4. Another reason for the earlier hesitation of Dr.Manmohan Singh was the lack of enthusiasm for the proposal to permit FDI in the retail sector and to increase the diesel price from Shri A.K.Antony, the Defence Minister, who is perceived to be close to Mrs.Sonia Gandhi and enjoys her total political support despite his lack-lustre performance as the Defence Minister. The strong backing reportedly enjoyed by him from Mrs.Sonia Gandhi  came in the way of the Prime Minister overruling him.

5. Shri Pranab Mukherjee, former Finance Minister, had little access to Mrs.Sonia Gandhi and did not enjoy her confidence. He was, therefore, not in a position to impart strength to Dr.Manmohn Singh in overcoming Shri Antony’s foot-dragging on important issues of economic reforms.

6. The induction of Sri P.Chidambaram, who is believed to enjoy the confidence of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi to the same extent as Shri Antony, has given new confidence to the Prime Minister that he might be able to push ahead with at least some of the economic reforms because Shri Chidambaram shares the Prime Minister’s views on the urgent need for some economic decisions, even if they be controversial, and his views will carry conviction to Mrs.Sonia Gandhi.

7.The immediate significance of the three economic decisions taken are more political than economic. Firstly, the negative drag that Shri Antony used to exercise with the backing of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi has now been neutralised by Shri Chidambaram.

8.Secondly, the Government and the Congress have realised that the impression of policy and governmental paralysis was not only adding to the negative drag on the economy, but was also creating a very poor image of the Government and the party in India and abroad. The “Washington Post’s” negative projection of a worse-than-Hamlet Prime Minister has given a healthy shake-up to the Government.

9. The Government can afford to ignore the negative assessment of the “Time” magazine which is often prejudiced against India. Moreover, “Time” does not enjoy the same attention and respect in international financial circles as the WP does. The WP’s assessment cannot be dismissed lightly as of no consequence.

10.Thirdly, as a result of the shake-up, the Government and the Congress decided to re-launch the stalling economic reforms even if there are negative political consequences. The Government has decided that the fear of a mid-term poll should not be allowed to stand in the way of important policy decisions relating to the economy.

11. Taking the important decisions is only the first step. Going ahead with their implementation despite the demand for a roll-back from coalition allies will be a more important second step. Even in the past, the Government had announced bold decisions, but subsequently abandoned or diluted them because of the threats and demands from the coalition partners. When there is a surge of such threats and demands, the Congress party tries to exercise pressure on the Government to roll back. When faced with mounting pressure from the party, Mrs.Sonia Gandhi had in the past shown a tendency to succumb to it. If she and her Party do it again and pressure the Government to roll back, the resulting loss of face for the Government and the Party could have incalculable consequences for the economy and for the political fortunes of the Congress.

12. There is a lot of unwarranted euphoria on the likely economic impact of the decisions, particularly  those relating to the FDI. It will take at least five years or more for the beneficial economic impact to be felt. There is unlikely to be any poll dividends for the Congress as a result of these decisions.

13.These decisions are required to reverse the economic slide-down in the medium and long-terms. The Government should show a determination to implement them in the national interest even if the political consequences for the Congress may not be beneficial.( 15-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

COMMANDO-STYLE ATTACK ON THE US CONSULATE IN BENGHAZI

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR : PAPER NO.766

B.RAMAN

Since September 11,2012, the 11^th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in the US Homeland, there have been violent incidents outside the US Embassies in Cairo and Sanaa in  Yemen and outside the US Consulate in Benghazi in Libya.

2. The incidents were triggered off by protests by some of the local Muslims against a video clip believed to have been uploaded by an unidentified person in the US projecting Islam and its Holy Prophet in negative colours.

3.According to speculative reports of the British and American media, a person, suspected to be a Coptic Christian of Egyptian origin living in the US is reported to have produced a film on Islam which was shown to a small audience in California in June 2012. A video clip of this with no Arabic sub-titles was allegedly uploaded by him on the Internet on July 1.Nobody in the Islamic world noticed it. Subsequently, he had the same clip uploaded with Arabic sub-titles. It was noticed by an Islamic TV channel of Egypt which drew attention to it. This led to the first demonstration in Cairo. Thereafter, it spread to Benghazi and Sanaa. Demonstrations are being reported from other Islamic countries too.

4.The crowds which demonstrated outside the US Embassies in Cairo and Sanaa were reportedly unarmed. They threw stones  and Molotov cocktails at the security forces guarding the missions whom they tried to overpower in order to pull down the US flag. The security forces were able to control the demonstrators by using tearsmoke.

5. In Benghazi too, outside the US Consulate, there was a similar demonstration against the US by a group of unarmed local Muslims. The US Ambassador  to Libya, Chris Stevens who is based in Tripoli, was then on a visit to  Benghazi and was inside the Consulate. The demonstrators did not appear to have been aware of this.

6. While this demonstration was going on without posing any major problem to the security guards, another group of armed Muslims carrying fire-arms and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) appeared on the scene and launched a commando-style attack on the Consulate. There was a heavy exchange of fire and use of grenades. The armed intruders with others entered the Consulate complex and tried to set fire to the buildings.

7. By the time their attack could be brought under control after four hours, the Ambassador and three other American employees were killed. The circumstances under which they were killed  are not clear.

8. The CNN TV channel quoted State Department officials as saying that the two incidents at the diplomatic missions in Cairo and Benghazi were not related and that  they believed the Benghazi violence was a "clearly planned attack." The CNN quoted a senior official as saying: "It was not an innocent mob.  The video or 9/11 made a handy excuse and could be fortuitous from their perspective but this was a clearly planned military-type attack."

9.On September 10, Al Qaeda had released a video message by Ayman Al-Zawahiri, its Amir, who is an Egyptian, confirming that his No.2  Abu Yahya al-Libi, a Libyan cleric who handled Al Qaeda’s motivational and propaganda work, had been killed in a US Drone strike in Pakistan’s North Waziristan on June 4,2012. The US had announced his death in June itself but Al Qaeda confirmed it only on September 10. This has given rise to speculation that the commando-style attack on the US Consulate might have been in retaliation for the death of the Libyan cleric, but Al Qaeda itself has not come out with any statement on the Benghazi attack so far.

10.The speculation in Benghazi is that the commando-style attack was probably carried out by Ansar al-Sharia (Supporters of the Sharia).The Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which operates from Yemen, has also been calling itself since last year as the Ansar al-Sharia. It is not yet clear whether the Ansar suspected in the Benghazi attack is the same as the Yemen-based wing of Al Qaeda or is an indigenous Libyan organisation.

11. In the protest movement in Egypt that preceded  the resignation of Hosni Mubarak last year, there was no participation by external jihadi elements. It was a purely Egyptian movement with no involvement by Al Qaeda or its supporters. Moreover, the overthrow of Mubarak did not affect the command and control of the Egyptian Army and the Egyptian intelligence, which continued to monitor the activities Al Qaeda. There was no intelligence and security vacuum in Egypt.

12. When Qaddafi put up a stiff resistance to the US-sponsored external intervention to bring about a regime change in Libya, the US and other NATO countries recruited, trained and armed a number of external radical elements for using them against Qaddafi’s army. The brutal massacre of Qaddafi and his aides resulted in a collapse of the command and control of the Libyan Army and intelligence. As a result, there has been a security and intelligence vacuum in Libya. Apparently, taking advantage of this, Al Qaeda and its affiliates have set up sleeper cells in Libya.

13. The  events in the coming days and weeks may take a course similar to what happened in the Islamic world after the publication of caricatures of the Holy Prophet in a Danish journal on September 30,2005. Starting from April 2006, for a little over two years there was a rash of violent incidents in different parts of the Islamic world including an explosion outside the Danish Embassy in Islamabad in June 2008.

14. The present demonstrations are in protest against the film. It is likely that Islamic fundamentalist elements may demand the identification, arrest and prosecution of the person living in the US who produced the film. The US may not agree to this just as the Danish Government refused to act against the cartoonist on grounds of his freedom of expression. The US refusal to act might become a cause for further anger.(13-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

 

NAMO VS NAMO

 

B.RAMAN

Shri Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, never allows grass to grow under his feet. While the Congress Party is still confused as to what should be its strategy and tactics for the forthcoming elections to the State Assembly later this year, Shri Modi, like the proverbial hare, has already started racing ahead. He has inaugurated his and the BJP’s State election campaign with a powerful indictment of the state of corruption in the Government of India.

2. It is evident Shri Modi will have a two-pronged election strategy which will focus on his record as the Chief Minister and highlight what he projects as the injustices and step-motherly policies of the Government of India towards his Government.

3.Will the Congress tortoise be able to catch up with the hare and overtake it ultimately? The answer to this will depend not only on its stamina and winner instinct, but also on its ability to project before the voters of Gujarat a credible alternative to Shri Modi in terms of individuals and policies. One sees no clear sign of any logical thinking  in the Congress.

4.The 2009 elections to the Lok Sabha clearly showed that demonization and denigration of an individual does not bring in poll dividends. Instead of placing before the voters an attractive policy alternative package, Shri L.K.Advani focussed the entire campaign  of the BJP on an attempt to demonise and denigrate Dr.Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. It did not pay.

5. Similarly, the BJP’s current campaign of demonization and denigration of the Prime Minister is not showing signs of bringing in any significant poll return. The people are increasingly disillusioned with the Prime Minister and the Congress because of their perceived sins of commission and omission.

6. This disillusionment with the Congress and the PM has not been translated into a fascination for the BJP and its leaders. There has been a definitive corrosion of the support enjoyed by the Congress, but this corrosion has not been to the significant benefit of the BJP and its leaders. There are no signs of a gathering pro-BJP wave in the country. Disillusionment with the Congress and scepticism towards the BJP are the defining characteristics of the current public mood in the country.

7.Against this background, the Congress has to realise that any election campaign in Gujarat based on a continuing demonization of NaMo for the communal violence of 2002 will bring in ever-diminishing returns. The time has come to jettison the policy of demonization of NaMo.

8. The Congress election campaign has to be based on a clear understanding of the ground situation in Gujarat and the electoral strategy of NaMo and his supporters in his party and from the diaspora.

9. NaMo enjoys three formidable assets---- his record as an effective administrator, his achievements in developing the economy of the State and his reputation as an honest leader who has not allowed corruption to flourish under his watch. The public perception of his record as the Chief Minister is going to be his best poll ally.

10. But NaMo is not a paragon of all positive qualities. There are two negatives in his personality and leadership which have not been brought out by the Congress. The first is his drive to build a personality cult around him by skilfully exploiting the modern means of communication and the virtual world and the backing of a group of IT-savvy individuals from the diaspora  about whose background and credentials the voters of this country know very little.

11. The entourage of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi and Dr.Manmohan Singh is a relatively open book. One cannot say the same thing about the entourage of NaMo, particularly the diaspora members of his entourage. This entourage, with the diaspora members driving from the back seat, has been seeking to bulldoze NaMo’s way forward towards winning another term as the Chief Minister and ultimately occupying the Chair of the Prime Minister.

12. This lack of transparency regarding his entourage and particularly of the NRIs who have flocked to his flag should be a matter of concern to the right-thinking persons in our country. In the attempt to build a personality cult around him and make him seem 15 feet tall, his entourage has been quietly trying to identify and undermine the potential challengers to his way forward.

13. NaMo has been in power for a decade now. Has the time not come to discourage the trend towards a personality cult by trying an alternate leader? An accepted principle in many democracies is that a personality cult would prove detrimental to the health of democracy. That is why many democracies have put a limit to the number of years  a head of Government or State can hold office. There are two-term limits in the US and France where the head of State/Government is directly elected. Even in authoritarian societies such as Russia and China there are two-term limits. No leader, however brilliant, should be allowed to occupy the chair of the head of the Government for a long period.

14. In countries such as the UK, where the head of Government is not directly elected, there is no constitutionally laid down limit, but their political culture sees to it that there is no bulldozed attempt to build a personality cult. The most worrisome aspect of NaMo’s personality is not his attitude to the religious minorities which has become more benign and positive now than it seemed to be in 2002, but his attempt, with the backing of his entourage, to build a personality cult around him.

15.Secondly,NaMo’s economic achievements seem so dazzling that nobody has gone into them in depth. Who are the ultimate beneficiaries of his economic policies---- certain corporate houses or the common people as a whole? Is his gathering support thanks to people-friendly policies or corporate-friendly ones? These are questions that have not been posed and discussed in depth.

16. Nobody can question NaMo’s achievements. They are there for all to see. But, nobody can fail to be disturbed by the personality cult being built around him. And one should not hesitate to raise questions about the ultimate beneficiaries of his economic policies.

17. Has the time come to seek an alternative to NaMo and his policies? That question has to be addressed in the weeks ahead before the Gujarat elections. ( 13-9-12)

 

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW WINDS OF JIHAD: SIMPLIFIED & FROM THE GLOBAL TO THE LOCAL

 

 

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.765

B.RAMAN

As the world observes the 11^th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland, one hears less and less the pre-2001 calls of Al Qaeda for a global jihad against the Crusaders and the Jewish people and for the re-establishment of an Islamic Caliphate and one hears more and more calls for local jihads against local rulers and local enemies of Islam. This is so whether it be in Pakistan or Yemen or Somalia, or Iraq or  Algeria or Mali or Nigeria. Al Qaeda talks no more of the International Islamic Front formed by Osama bin Laden in 1998.

2.The call now is no longer for an international Caliphate. It is now for myriad Islamic States ruled according to the Sharia and for waging a jihad against what they look upon  as the pollution of Islam by enemies of Islam masquerading as Muslims. Whereas in the past, the Christians and the Jewish people were projected as the principal non-Muslim enemies of Islam, the Shias are now projected as an equally despicable enemy to be ruthlessly eliminated.

3.One increasingly finds this growing anti-Shia dimension of the Sunni/Wahabi terrorist ideology in Pakistan. The Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), an affiliate of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, which has been spearheading the jihad against the Shias in Balochistan, Karachi, Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab and the Kurram Agency, has declared them “wajib-ul-qatl”  meaning deserving of death.

4. Pakistan has had a long history of anti-Shia violence from its birth in 1947. In Afghanistan too, when the Taliban was in power before October 2001, there were brutal attacks on Hazara Shias. But this anti-Shia violence has now acquired an ideological approval and a religious sanction.

5. The worrisome development is that Pakistan’s elite and other so-called liberal sections, which occasionally even condemn the atrocities against the Balochs and the Ahmadias, have been silent on the atrocities against the Shias. Newspapers like the “Daily Times” of Lahore do draw attention to the anti-Shia acts of terrorism, but large sections of the media are maintaining a silence.

6.Over 300 Shias are reported to have been massacred since the beginning of this year, many of them dragged out of buses, lined up and shot dead. The so-called elite of Pakistan, barring some individual exceptions, has hardly protested.

7. The systematic and ruthless elimination of the Shias by the pro-Al Qaeda LEJ and the inaction of the State against the perpetrators are accepted as unavoidable by the elite and other liberal elements. The human rights of the Shias do not get the same support as the human rights of other minority groups.

8.Even the judiciary’s tolerant attitude to the perpetrators of anti-Shia atrocities in the name of pure Islam has escaped strong condemnation. On September 11, 2012, a Lahore court granted bail to Lashkar-e-Jhangvi’s chief Malik Ishaq, who had been recently arrested by the police for instigating attacks on the Shias. The leniency of the court reminded one of a similar lenient attitude by the judiciary towards Hafiz Mohammad Sayeed of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) last year, when he was ordered to be released from police custody despite the evidence of his role in the organisation of the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.

9. The increasing violence by pro-Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan has taken two forms----against the security forces by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and against the Shias by the LEJ. These are Pakistani organisations dominated largely by Punjabi Sunnis and Sunni Pashtuns.

10. There has, however, been a decrease in violence against Pakistani targets and interests by the Arab-dominated Al Qaeda operating from North Waziristan and headed by Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian. After the death of Osama bin Laden (OBL) in the US raid on Abbottabad on May1/2 last year, the Arab Al Qaeda suffered one more major set-back on June 4,2012, when its No.2 and ideologue Abu Yahya al-Libi was killed in a US Drone strike in North Waziristan. His death was confirmed by Zawahiri in a special video message released on September 11, 2012, coinciding with the 11^th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks in the US Homeland.al-Libi was a cleric and a good religious motivator and his absence is being felt by Al Qaeda based in North Waziristan.

11. The repeated successes of the Drone Strikes are having an impact on Al Qaeda of North Waziristan, which has not been able to carry out any major strike in the West for nearly two years now.

12. Next to the Afghan and Pakistani Talibans, the LET and the LEJ, the most capable and lethal terrorist organisation today is the Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).Its reach, motivation, reservoir of cadres for suicide terrorism and lethality  were demonstrated on the 9/11 anniversary on September 11.A car bomb targeting Yemeni Defence Minister Major General Muhammad Nasir Ahmad exploded outside the Prime Minister’s office in Sanaa , killing at least five bodyguards but the Minister reportedly escaped. The attack was reportedly in retaliation for  the death of AQAP’s No.2  Said al-Shehri, in an attack in eastern Yemen last week.

13. The AQAP, which is also called the Ansar al-Shria (Supporters of the Sharia), operates from Yemen. It used to be headed by Anwar al-Awlaki, a US citizen of Yemeni origin. After his death in a US Drone strike in September last year, it is reportedly led by Nasir al Wuhayshi, who was the chief of staff of OBL in Kandahar before 9/11.

14.The AQAP differs from Al Qaeda of North Waziristan of Afghan Mujahideen and OBL vintage in the following respects:

( a ). It focusses its recruitment drive through the Net on English-knowing young Muslims of non-Arab extraction. Many young  non-Arab Muslims, including Pakistanis and members of the Pakistani diaspora in the West, are now believed to be going to the training camps of the Ansar in Yemen and not to the training camps of the old jihadi organisations of Afghan vintage in the Af-Pak region.

( b ). It advises its supporters in different countries to adopt not the catastrophic or mass casualty terrorism favoured by OBL and his advisers, but a simplified form of jihad that could be easily or self-learnt, with the use of modus operandi such as assassinations of targeted individuals, driving a motor car over the target etc.

( C ).It produces its propaganda and motivational literature in English and disseminates them through the Net.

15. The available details of the interrogation of the 18 Muslims arrested in Bengaluru, Hubli, Hyderabad and Maharashtra indicates more the influence of AQAP and the Ansar on their motivation and operational thinking than that of jihadi organisations of Afghan vintage.

16. The Al Qaeda of Afghan vintage was never able to win much influence over young Indian Muslims. The motivation of these 18 Muslims through the Net would indicate that the AQAP/Ansar may be having a greater impact on the minds of the educated and English-proficient young members of our Muslim community.

17. While continuing to keep up their watch on the Pakistani jihadi organisations, our intelligence agencies should pay more attention to the new winds of jihad from Yemen. (12-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPERATION NEPTUNE SPEAR : MY COMMENTS

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO 764

B.RAMAN

 

RedState, a largely visited  web site of the US, describes itself as “ the most widely read right of center blog on Capitol Hill, is the most often cited right of center blog in the media, and is widely considered one of the most influential voices of the grassroots on the right….At RedState, we are conservatives in primaries and Republican in general elections and we aim to win. RedState’s day to day efforts are led by its Editor, Erick Erickson.”

2.Coinciding with the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in the US homeland, it has carried an article dated  September 10,2012, by one Jeff Emanuel titled “India, Abbottabad, and Osama bin Laden: Did New Delhi Assist the U.S. on Operation Neptune Spear?’

3. The article is a commentary on the book titled “No Easy Day” written by Mark Owen ( assumed name), one of the Navy Seals who formed a member of the team that successfully raided the hide-out of Osama bin Laden at Abbottabad in Pakistan on the night of May 1/2,2011, and killed OBL. The book is his account of the operation code-named Neptune Spear carried out by a team of the Navy Seals under the supervision of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), then headed by Mr.Leon Panetta, the present Defence Secretary.

4. After the successful raid, Owen was decorated along with other members of the team, but seems to have taken premature retirement. The reasons for his premature retirement are not known. It is not clear whether it was due to any grievances he might have had in connection with the recognition of his role in the raid.

5.Mr.Panetta has been quoted by the US media as having demanded action against Owen for having disclosed sensitive operational secrets in his book. This would indicate a large measure of truth in his account, if not the entire truth.

6.The article by Jeff Emanuel has caused  considerable interest in India because of its inference, after studying the flight path of the helicopters that carried the Navy Seals as indicated by Owen, that one of the helicopters crossed Indian air space over Jammu and Kashmir on its way to and back from Abbottabad.

7. To quote the relevant observations of Emanuel:

“The fourteenth page of images in No Easy Day contains a map showing the routes taken by the two flights of helicopters: the Black Hawks taking the assaulters to Abbottabad, and the MH-47 Chinooks carrying a quick reaction force (QRF) and forward area refueling point (FARP) team. While the latter flew due east to a staging area northwest of Abbottabad, the former flight is shown on Owen’s map as crossing over Pakistan’s eastern border with India before looping around and approaching Abbottabad from the southeast, rather than approaching directly from the west (or west-northwest).

“This apparent use of Indian airspace on the infiltration route raises some obvious questions, including:

 1.What foreknowledge (if any) did the Indian government have about the mission into Pakistan?

 2.If clearance to use Indian airspace was requested (and granted), what was the Indian government told, either about the real objective of Operation Neptune Spear or as a cover story?

“What other assistance did India provide, either in terms of aerial diversion or supplying the U.S. with guidance on the best route back into Pakistan? (It seems clear that the latter would involve providing the U.S. some insight into India’s intelligence and route planning for a possible strike on Pakistan should hostilities resume between the two states.)

“It’s important to note at this point that this discussion is based on a single low-detail graphic  from an account that was neither vetted nor confirmed by the U.S. government. At no  point in the text of No Easy Day is the route to Abbottabad discussed (as opposed to the return trip, which is dealt with in some detail); in fact, Owen writes, most of the team slept on the way in.

 

“Owen’s map appears to define Pakistan’s eastern border as the western boundary of Kashmir, the disputed territory that is bisected into Pakistani- and Indian-administered territories by the Line of Control, established in 1972, and it is difficult to tell whether the image was intended to show that the helicopters’ route crossed the LOC. However, the route appears to take the Americans in the vicinity of Uri, in Indian territory.

“It goes without saying that crossing over the LOC would have been an exceedingly dangerous undertaking, and one which, while crossing eastward, would almost certainly have required providing prior notice to the Indian government. Likewise, passing back across the LOC into Pakistan would have been a dangerous undertaking, as that is the direction in which Pakistan’s air defenses are largely oriented. This goes back to point 3 above: if the assaulters’ route to Abbottabad included crossing over the Indian border and back again, it seems likely that weaknesses in Pakistan’s eastward-oriented air defences known to India were communicated to the U.S. and exploited on this mission.”

8. I have the following comments on the analysis of Emanuel:

(a). In covert operations of this kind, the principle of restrictive security is strictly followed. The crew of the helicopters would not know what the Navy Seals would be doing after they are dropped on the ground. The Navy Seals would not know what flight path the crew would be following. How did Owen come to know the details of the flight path and the exact points at which the helicopter would be crossing the Line of Control (LOC) twice while going to Abbottabad ?

( b ).In planning operations of this nature involving air and missile action, the US is always worried that if the Pakistanis detect the action they may misinterpret that the action had been originated by India and this could lead to a war between the two nuclear powers. They never undertake any secret action from the Indian side. When the US launched the Cruise missile attacks on OBL’s camps in Afghanistan in October 1998, Anthony Zinni, the then head of the Central Command, flew to the Chaklala Air Force base in Pakistan and informed Gen.Jehangir Karamat, the then Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), of the impending action. He later said that he did not want the Pakistanis to think that the missiles were of India and launch a counter-attack on India.

( C).After the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland, the A.B.Vajpayee Government then in power had offered to the US the secret use of Indian Air Force bases for retaliatory strikes against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The Bush Administration declined the offer due to fears of unpredictable reaction by Pakistan resulting in a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

( d ). The anxiety not to  undertake any operation from the Indian side that might trigger off panic reactions by Pakistan against India continues to be an important element in US covert action planning in this region.

( e ).Any operation of this nature involving an approach from the Indian air space  contained in it, whether the Government of India was kept informed or not, the seeds of the danger that Pakistan might detect the approach of the helicopter from the Indian air space and react unpredictably against India.

( f). After the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai, there was a discussion in India by well-informed persons about India’s option of mounting a copter strike on the training camps of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. The US pressured India not to undertake such an operation due to its fears of unpredictable reactions of Pakistan. It was reported at that time that the Indian Special Forces were confident that they would be able to undertake copter-borne strikes in POK without being detected by Pakistani radars. Were the details of the flight path which the Indian Special Forces intended using if they had been permitted by the political leadership to undertake the strikes shared with the CIA for its operation on Abbottabad?

9. Owen’s account will neither be proved correct nor disproved till the US one day declassifies the details of the operation. Till then, it will be difficult to find definitive answers to the points raised by me.

10.The account of Owen would make sense only if the US had kept both India and Pakistan informed beforehand, taken India’s consent for the copter to cross into Indian air space and Pakistan’s consent for the copter to take a flight path across Indian air space.

11. In this connection, please see my following comments in my article dated May 3,2011, on the operation at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers45/paper4463.html

“Till now the indications are that it was an exclusive US operation. Since it involved the ingress of the US specal forces into Pakistani territory by air in helicopters, it was likely that Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), was informed before the helicopters with the special forces took off from Afghanistan for the raid even though US officials have reportedly been asserting that Pakistan was informed only after the helicopters had taken off at the end of the operation. When the Bill Clinton Administration launched the Cruise missile strikes on the training camps of Al Qaeda in the Jalalabad area of Afghanistan in 1998 they followed a similar procedure. Gen Anthony Zinni, the then Commanding Officer of the US Central Command, flew to Islamabad from a US naval ship and informed Gen.Jehangir Karamat, the then COAS, about the impending raid. The US did so to make sure that Pakistan did not interpret that the missile had been launched by India and order a missile strike against India. A similar precaution was likely to have been taken this time too. Moreover, Abbotabad, an important military garrison town, has high air defence cover. It was important to prevent   a messy air defence action by Pakistan against the US helicopters if its radars had  detected their approach. The entire operation lasted a little over two hours. During this period, one of the helicopters crashed. It was blown up and destroyed by the special forces. A newsletter disseminated by a retired US naval officer says: "Source says actual crash sight was on Kakul Road, Abbottabod, Pakistan just down from the Pakistan Military Academy exercise grounds. See image for road, which was reportedly blocked off by local security after the incident. Folks in the city mentioned on Twitter at the time that the action was very, very close to the PMA." This would indicate that during the entire operation on the ground, which lasted over 90 minutes if one excludes the time taken by the choppers for their to and fro journey, the Pakistani security forces did not intervene and try to find out what was going on. The local police blocked the stretch of the road where the helicopter had crashed to prevent onlookers rushing there till the Americans had destroyed the chopper. All this clearly shows that the Pakistanis must have had advance knowledge of the operation and had instructions from above not to intervene.”( 11-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

 

MY TAKE ON XI RUMOURS

 

 

 

B.RAMAN

Xi Jinping,59, Chinese Vice-President, who is expected to take over from Hu Jintao as the head of the Communist Party of China (CPC) at the 18^th Party Congress next month, has not been attending to his protocol duties for a week now.

2.During the last one week, the Chinese Foreign Office is reported to have cancelled his pre-scheduled meetings with Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, (scheduled for September 5), Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong,a Russian official and Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt of Denmark (scheduled for September 10).

3.While Chinese officials have not given any reason for the cancellation of these appointments, a U.S. official was quoted by the media as saying that Mr. Xi cancelled his meeting with Mrs. Clinton  because of a back problem.

4. These cancellations have given rise to considerable rumours in Chinese microblogs and in web sites of overseas Chinese organisations. Despite the attempts  of the Chinese authorities to block these microblogs and web sites, rumours and speculation regarding Mr.Xi continue to circulate.

5. These rumours and speculation fall under two categories. The first is that he is undergoing treatment for a back problem either due to natural causes or as a result of an accident. The second is that he escaped with minor injuries in an assassination attempt.

6.  Radio Free Asia (RFA), which is funded by the US Congress, reported, inter alia, as follows on September 10 while discussing the various rumours under circulation:

“China's Internet censors on Monday blocked searches about vice-president and presumed leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping and the ruling Chinese Communist Party's discipline czar He Guoqiang following rumors that they had been injured in separate car accidents.

“The U.S.-based Chinese news website Boxun reported over the weekend that Xi and He were being treated at Beijing's 301 Military Hospital after being injured in two separate road accidents on the evening of Sept. 4, sparking media speculation and rumours that the two were the targets of assassination attempts by allies of ousted Chongqing Party boss Bo Xilai and national security chief Zhou Yongkang.

“In an article that was removed within hours of being posted, Boxun reported that Xi's car was sandwiched by off-road vehicles, leaving him in hospital with a spinal injury.

 “It said He Guoqiang, the secretary of the Commission for Discipline Inspection, was also involved in a separate road accident on the same night, when a truck traveling at high speed hit his car from behind, causing it to turn over.

“The website, whose reports are not always validated, said He was in critical condition, while Xi sustained minor injuries.

“However, the report sparked a wave of rumours that military officers and supporters of Bo and Zhou may have carried out attacks on the two officials.

“Such reports about the whereabouts and plans of China's heavily-guarded top officials are notoriously hard to confirm, and RFA was unable to do so.

“Boxun reported that two military officers have since been detained for questioning.”

7. I am disinclined for the present to accept the credibility of the rumours regarding a possible assassination attempt. In view of the forthcoming 18^th Party Congress, physical security had been considerably stepped up in Beijing and Chongqing for the last one month. It would have been difficult for any group of conspirators to plot an assassination undetected and attempt to carry it out.

8.If an attempt had been made on September 4 as alleged by the rumours, there would have been a further upgradation of security after the alleged attempt. My impression is that the security alert in Beijing and Chongqing continues to be at the same level as it was before September 4.One does not notice any sign of security nervousness or panic in Beijing. ( 11-9-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)