SPECTRE OF A NEO AL QAEDA CONFRONTS AFRICA

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO. 754

B.RAMAN

Since April last, a new brand of jihadists called Ansar Dine (Defenders of Faith) has been spreading jihadist mayhem in  northern Mali, reminding one of the brutalities and vandalism perpetrated by the Taliban under Mulla Mohammad Omar from 1994 and before it was overthrown by the US in October 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in the US.  Mali, a land-locked country in Western Africa, borders Algeria on the north, Niger on the east, Burkina Faso and the Côte d'Ivoire on the south, Guinea on the south-west, and Senegal and Mauritania on the west

2. The Taliban, which carried out indescribable cruelties in the name of Islam against fellow-Muslims---particularly the Hazara Shias---- and destroyed the historical Buddhist shrine of Bamiyan,  initially consisted of Pashtun tribals radicalised, trained and armed by the intelligence agencies of the US, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan for use against the Soviet troops and pro-Soviet Afghan security forces in Afghanistan.

3.After the post-1988 withdrawal of the Soviet troops, these anti-communist jihadists  turned into anti-West, anti-Israel and anti-democracy radicals and spread mayhem in the name of Al Qaeda in the Af-Pak region, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, Algeria and Indonesia.

4.Even before their activities could be brought under control by the international community, a new brand of jihadists---- more radical, more brutal and more vandalists than even Al Qaeda and the Taliban of anti-Soviet vintage-- has made its appearance in  northern Mali and joined hands with the remnants of Al Qaeda in Algeria and Mauritania in the name of Al Qaeda of Islamic Maghreb.

5.They have been carrying out acts of brutality and vandalism against  fellow-Muslims and the widely-practised Sufism in Northern Mali. The Ansar Dine has been destroying  the Islamic heritage sites in Timbuktu, including the burial sites of many Sufi saints in the name of establishing a pure Islamic state. Their attack on Sufism and their destruction of Sufi sites indicate a strong Wahabi influence on them

6.The brutalisation of Islam in the name of Sharia, which first made its appearance in the Af-Pak region after the withdrawal of the Soviet troops, is now threatening to infect Northern Mali  after the overthrow and elimination of Qaddafi and his Army in Libya by a Western trained and armed army of mercenaries, many of them Wahabi jihadists of Af-Pak vintage .

7.Just as many of the  weapons so generously given by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to the Afghan Mujahideen ultimately fell into the hands of Al Qaeda and the Taliban and were used by them to spread death and destruction in the civilised world, the weapons from Libya---some accumulated by Qaddafi’s Army and others given to his opponents by the intelligence agencies of the US and other NATO countries--- are now finding their way into the hands of the new post-Libya crop of jihadists in Northern Mali, Niger, Algeria and Mauritania.

8. The West under the leadership of the US meddled in Afghanistan in the 1980s in the name of containing communism and preventing its spread in the Islamic world. The result: over two decades of international jihadi terrorism from which the world has not yet fully recovered despite successes in eliminating Osama bin Laden and other important leaders of Al Qaeda. The Afghan and Pakistani Talibans, and the plethora of jihadi organisations of Pakistan, with the Lashkar-e-Toiba in the forefront, are yet to be brought under control due to the complicity of the Pakistani State with them.

9.Now, new waves of anger, radicalisation and chaos caused by the Western meddling in Iraq, Libya and Syria in the name of promoting democracy are not only threatening to give a new lease of life to the remnants of Al Qaeda of the Afghan vintage, but are also creating a new crop of jihadists determined to keep the blood flowing in the name of Islam till an Islamic Caliphate ruled according to the Sharia comes into being in Northern and Western Africa.

10.The brutal elimination by the US-led forces with the complicity of Iran of Saddam Hussein, who strongly countered the activities of Al Qaeda, facilitated the ingress of Al Qaeda into Iraq, where it has been spreading death and destruction. Similarly, the equally brutal elimination of Qaddafi, who strongly countered Al Qaeda in North Africa and the Saharan region, has led to the rise of Neo Al Qaeda in Northern Mali.

11.The process of destabilisation in Northern Mali has got aggravated following the May 26 decision of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), an organisation of secular Tuareg tribes,  to merge with the  Ansar Dine and  declare the formation of a separate state in northern Mali to be called the Islamic Republic of Azawad.

12. After the signing of the accord on May 26, "Colonel" Bouna Ag Attayoub, an MNLA commander in Timbuktu, told the BBC that "the Islamic Republic of Azawad is now an independent sovereign state." The Ansar Dine did not in the past support the creation of an independent State in Northern Mali, which is the goal of the MNLA. It wanted to establish an Islamic State in the whole of Mali. Now, to strengthen its position, it seems to have tactically decided to support the MNLA’s demand for the secession of Northern Mali. It remains to be seen how far the hitherto secular MNLA and the increasingly Wahabi Ansar Dine will remain united.

13. Both the organisations draw their followers from the Tuaregs, who are a nomadic tribe found in the Sahara Desert,in Niger, Mali, Algeria and Libya. The Qaddafi regime allegedly supported for many years the secular elements in the tribe and armed them to counter the pro-Al Qaeda elements in the tribe. His regime supported  a movement for an independent  Tuareg State consisting of the Tuareg-inhabited areas of Niger and Northern Mali. His overthrow and brutal murder by the pro-Western armed mercenaries have weakened the secular elements in the tribe and strengthened the hands of the Wahabi elements.

14.Many Tuaregs, who were fighting in Libya either with Qaddafi’s Army or with the anti-Qaddafi mercenary forces trained and armed by the Western  intelligence agencies, returned to Mali in March with the weapons acquired by them in Libya. Since then, Mali, which had a tradition of democratic rule, has been going through increasing instability following a short-lived military coup in March, which overthrew the elected government of President Amadou Toumani Touré .A month later, Dioncounda Traoré, 70, the leader of the country’s National Assembly, was sworn in as interim President. He has not been able to impose his authority

15. In a statement disseminated from Mauritania on July 7, Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) warned against anyone in Mali collaborating with a foreign military force that might intervene in north Mali. Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a leader of AQIM,  warned  that no one should be tempted to “profit from the situation” in north Mali “by collaborating with the foreign forces who are eyeing the region.”

16.The previous day, another jihadist group calling itself the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), threatened countries who  joined a military intervention force.(11-7-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

MY TAKE ON TATA’S REMARKS ON CHINA

B.RAMAN

Shri Ratan Tata, Chairman of the Tata Group of companies, has made some interesting remarks on India’s relations with China in an interview with Bloomberg UTV. Extracts of the interview can be seen at http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-china-a-second-class-enemy-could-be-a-strong-ally-ratan-tata/20120709.htm

2. He has been quoted inter alia as saying:" No, I am not worried (about China). I wish we could find a way to be allies with China. I would prefer to use China as a very strong ally, to forge a relationship with China which would be a sustaining one and I think it could be done.  India-China relationship is not adversarial, but it is not the best. You know China has never done anything adversarial to India. China has of course been assisting and arming Pakistan, which is like a red flag to India, and that already makes it a second class enemy."

3.His remarks may be read in continuation of my article of June 6,2012 titled “THE JUGULAR REALITY: INDIA’S STRATEGIC DEBATE” available at http://www.c3sindia.org/india/2932

4. According to a report carried by the “Times of India” on June 30,2012, “ Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has announced that its Chinese subsidiary, TCS China, has been listed among the '2012 Top 10 Global Service Providers in China.' The award was presented by the China Council for International Investment Promotion (CCIIP) in an award ceremony held at Nanjing, China.”

5. Speaking at the function, Qiqi Dong, CEO, TCS China, said: "We will continue to strengthen relationships with our local and multinational customers and we will keep building the right infrastructure to help drive China's full potential as a global player in IT services, outsourcing and consulting."

6. TCS, Infosys and Reliance are among the Indian companies that have been doing well in their business relations with China. The TCS web site says: “Having pioneered the Global Delivery Network Model, TCS commenced its China operations in 2002, bringing its three decades of domain experience. In 2005, TCS established a landmark joint venture in Beijing with the Chinese Government, which is considered as the role model for Chinese IT industry. Currently, TCS has three Global Delivery Centers (GDC) in China (Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai) operating at the highest quality standards. TCS has also invested in a number of technology centers in China.”

7.In the strategic debate presently on in the country to which I had drawn attention in my article, the views and assessment of Shri Tata have to be given importance. At the same time, one should not overlook the growing business interests of the TCS in China.

8. India has reasons to be gratified by the excellent name that the TCS has made in China, its winning the trust of the Chinese Government and public and the expansion of its presence in China. The increasing presence of Indian business houses in China will definitely help us in expanding our economic relations with China and in improving the State-to-State and people-to-people trust level between the two countries. One has to salute the TCS for what it has already achieved in China and wish it more success.

9. At the same time,  our respect and admiration for Shri Tata should not distort the strategic debate  and induce self-complacency in our national security related decisions vis-à-vis China. No Indian national security manager can afford to overlook the conscious role being played by China in strengthening Pakistan’s nuclear and missile capabilities, its ambivalence, if not double standards, on the question of  sovereignty over Jammu & Kashmir, its strengthening its military capabilities in Tibet and its insistence on changing the status quo in Arunachal Pradesh. The deadlock in the negotiations over the border dispute is largely attributable to its waiting for the day when it can force upon us a change in the status quo.

10. There is no historical enmity between India and China. We do not find in China and its Armed Forces the kind of anti-India mindset that we find in Pakistan and its Armed Forces. China does not fight shy of admitting its cultural and civilisational links with India and has not been rewriting its history to erase references to such links as Pakistan, its rulers and many of its scholars have been doing.

11. Intrinsically, there is no reason why India and China should not be able to get closer together provided China changes those aspects of its policies on Pakistan which  India sees as directed against its national and strategic interests. So long as it does not do so and so long as it does not show a more accommodating stand on the border dispute, we have to treat China in our national security planning and strategizing as a country of major concern.

12.We paid a heavy price for neglecting our national security interests  in our relations with China when Jawaharlal Nehru was the Prime Minister. We should not repeat that folly.

13. Yes, it is in the mutual interest to continue to strengthen the economic relations. Yes, it is necessary to increase the trust level between the two countries. But just as China all the time keeps in view what it calls its core interests in its policy-making towards India, we should all the time keep in view our core interests in our policy-making towards China.

14.I have been an advocate of improving even our security co-operation with China in certain fields such as maritime security and maritime counter-terrorism and counter-piracy. But we should see that our adherence to our core interests and our determination to protect them do not get diluted by any tendency towards romanticisation of  China. ( 10-7-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

WTP: A CHAT OF BEAUTY & GRANDEUR

B.RAMAN

As a cancer patient myself since September,2009, I feel the urge to share with my readers my thoughts after seeing the We The People discussion on cancer  anchored by Barkha Dutt, of NDTV, on the night of July 8,2012.

It had Barkha’s brilliant professional touch. She needs to be complimented for keeping it in the heart-to-heart chat format and avoiding the usual format of an elitist debate.

Cancer, like other serious diseases, is a great leveller.

It doesn’t make a distinction between the rich and the poor, between the young and the old, between men and women.

When it strikes, it strikes brutally.

Barkha’s WTP chat brought this out beautifully.

There were many moving moments during the one hour the chat lasted.

Like for example, when Pranav Arora, a young boy of 16, laughingly explained how he had forgotten his cancer.

Like for example, when a charming lady laughed and laughed---naturally and spontaneously and not compulsively--- when talking of her reaction to cancer and of her process of recovery.

Like for example, when a man who is bravely trying to recover his voice after having lost it due to throat cancer, valiantly tried to share his experiences with the viewers.

There were many other such moments of indescribable  beauty and grandeur.

When you see others heartily laughing, your natural inclination is to join them in laughing.

When I saw the big and enchanting smile of the young boy or the uproarious laughter of the charming lady, my reaction was not to join them in their smile and laughter.

It was to shed tears and cry.

Cry over the fact that these people are able to take their cancer in their stride.

Cry over the fact that these people have not allowed cancer to become a tragedy in their lives.

Cry over the fact that these people have not allowed their cancer to become the end of their world.

Cry over the fact that these people are handling their cancer with such detachment.

It requires human spirit of a tremendous order to develop such an attitude to a dreaded disease. Once you develop that attitude, the dread vanishes.

These people may not have as yet totally conquered cancer.

But they have vanquished the dread of cancer.

They have not meekly submitted to their pain.

They are defiantly staring at their pain in its face and have not allowed it to change the way they live, smile and laugh.

Let us salute them.

Let us salute Yuvraj Singh for not letting himself be overwhelmed physically and mentally by his cancer and for not letting his cancer distort his image and vision of himself and the world.

Let us salute Yuvi too for coming forward to share his pain,tears, smile and laughter with others recovering from the blow of cancer.

Let us salute Barkha and her team for giving a movingly human touch to the chat.

I have always believed in sharing.

I share readily everything with others---my joys, my sorrows, my pain, my pleasure.

When you so share, you rise sky high and feel a colossus in your mind.

We saw many colossuses last night in Barkha’s programme.

It was more than a programme.

It was a humanising experience.

( The writer has been under treatment since 2009 for a metastasised cancer of the urinary tract and nearby bones and lymphnodes. Pl. see, if you wish, his article on his cancer titled Living & Sleeping With My Cancer at

http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.in/2012/06/living-sleeping-with-my-cancer.html  )

BALOCH FREEDOM-STRUGGLE: TIME FOR NEW STRATEGY

B.RAMAN

Against great odds, the Baloch freedom-fighters, who started their second war of independence in 2005, have managed to keep up their valiant struggle for the independence of their homeland.

2.Despite repression and torture by the Pakistani Army, its Frontier Corps and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the freedom-fighters, operating in different groups under different names, have managed to steadily weaken the hold of the Pakistani security forces and intelligence in their homeland and challenge the attempts of the Pakistani authorities to deprive the Balochs of their natural resources such as the Sui gas which were being diverted for the benefit of the Punjabis.

3. Despite repeated expressions of their interest in finding a political solution to the grievances of the Balochs ranging from greater and genuine autonomy to independence, the mainstream political parties of Pakistan such as the Pakistan People’s Party of President Asif Ali Zardari and the two factions of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led by Mr.Nawaz Sharif and Chaudhury Shujat Hussain have not taken any action to withdraw the security forces from Balochistan, release all political prisoners and put an end to the obnoxious practice of missing persons.

4. Under this practice, Baloch youth perceived as hostile to the Army and the ISI are kidnapped by the intelligence agencies for illegal detention. They are projected by the police as having joined the militancy and hence missing from their homes. Weeks and months later, their mutilated bodies are found thrown in remote areas of the province.

5.The Pakistani Supreme Court as well as Pakistani human rights organisations and activists have increasingly drawn attention to the serious violations of the human rights of the Balochs and to the continuing obnoxious practice of missing persons. The Baloch grievances now receive greater attention from enlightened sections of the Pakistani society as well as political elements and human rights activists in the US and the European Union countries. In recent months, there was greater sympathy for Baloch rights in some sections of the US Congress.

6. The Baloch freedom-fighters operating from Balochistan and Baloch political activists in the Baloch diaspora in the US and Europe have for the first time succeeded in creating a growing understanding of the Baloch cause and the Baloch political and economic grievances.

7. The deterioration in the relations between Washington DC and Islamabad after the Abbottabad raid of May 2 last year by the US Navy Seals to kill Osama bin Laden also created for the first time greater empathy for the Baloch cause in sections of the US political circles. There was greater interest in what was happening in Balochistan and a greater dissemination of correct information regarding the real state of affairs in Balochistan. This was a positive gain for the Baloch freedom-struggle and a  significant strategic step forward. From a war of tactics, the freedom-struggle seemed to be moving towards a strategic war with greater thinking and debate on a Baloch vision of the future.

8. No country in the world was officially prepared to support the Baloch freedom struggle. No State could have supported the freedom struggle and the objective of an independent Balochistan. That could have been projected by Islamabad as amounting to interference in the internal affairs of Pakistan. But there was growing sympathy for the Baloch cause and vision in sections of the civil societies of different countries.

9. Despite these strategic gains of recent months, the Baloch freedom-fighters are still far from their ultimate objective of an independent Balochistan. Lack of unity among different organisations in Balochistan itself and among different diaspora groups abroad continue to stand in the way of unity of action to give a final decisive push forward to the independence struggle. Unless the persisting factionalism and ego clashes among different Baloch leaders is put an end to and a unified leadership starts guiding the movement, the enormous sacrifices being made by Balochistan’s GenNext may prove to be in vain. This is an issue that needs attention from all Baloch leaders and activists.

10. They don’t have the luxury of time. They already seem to have missed the window of opportunity provided by the intense distrust of the Pakistani Army and Intelligence in the US political and administrative circles after the Abbottabad raid and the US discovery that the Pakistan Army and its ISI, while pretending to fight against Al Qaeda and its associates, have actually been acting in collusion with them.

11. As the US Presidential elections approach in November next, the US itself as well as other NATO countries seem to be in a hurry to start the process of disengagement from Afghanistan. The recent  decision by the US to mend fences with Pakistan at least tactically if not strategically to facilitate the on-coming process of disengagement is likely to have unfortunate consequences for the Baloch freedom struggle. Those in the US, who had started evincing increasing interest in the Baloch cause and struggle, may start developing second thoughts about the wisdom of continuing to show empathy for the Balochs at a time when the US might need the co-operation of the Pakistani State to disengage from Afghanistan. At this time, when greater Baloch unity is needed, if the different groups continue to indulge in ego clashes, the State of Pakistan might be the beneficiary.

12. Since the beginning of this year, the Pakistani Army and ISI have been following an insidious new policy in Balochistan in an attempt to discredit the Baloch freedom-fighters in the eyes of Western public opinion as terrorists. There has been a wave of massacres of Shias in Balochistan---some settlers from Punjab and many members of the Hazara tribal community. Over 80 Shia fatalities have been reported in the last six months as a result of the targeted attacks on the Shias.

13. The Sunni extremist Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) of Pakistan, which had helped the Afghan Taliban in carrying out massacres of the Hazara Shias of Afghanistan before the Taliban was overthrown in 2001, has claimed responsibility for some of these massacres in Balochistan. The Pakistan Army and ISI have not taken any action against the LEJ and to protect the Shias. Instead, one could discern the beginning of an insidious campaign by the ISI to project these massacres as carried out by sections of the Baloch freedom fighters because many of the Shias had migrated from Punjab. This insidious campaign needs to be effectively countered by the Baloch activists.

14. As the NATO powers start the process of disengaging from Afghanistan and seek the co-operation of the Pakistan Army and ISI for this purpose, support for the Baloch cause in sections of Western societies may freeze and even start declining. How to prevent this is a question that needs the serious attention of the strategists of the Baloch freedom struggle. The Baloch vision will remain the same, but there is going to be a need for a new Baloch strategy to give shape to this vision at a time of unpredictable transition in Afghanistan.

15.The previous Baloch freedom struggle petered out after the Soviet disengagement from Afghanistan post-1988.History could repeat itself after the forthcoming NATO disengagement, unless the Baloch leaders unite and evolve a new strategy to meet the newly-developing situation. It has to be an indigenous strategy and not one spoon-fed from outside. (8-7-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )