MY TAKE ON TATA’S REMARKS ON CHINA

B.RAMAN

Shri Ratan Tata, Chairman of the Tata Group of companies, has made some interesting remarks on India’s relations with China in an interview with Bloomberg UTV. Extracts of the interview can be seen at http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-china-a-second-class-enemy-could-be-a-strong-ally-ratan-tata/20120709.htm

2. He has been quoted inter alia as saying:" No, I am not worried (about China). I wish we could find a way to be allies with China. I would prefer to use China as a very strong ally, to forge a relationship with China which would be a sustaining one and I think it could be done.  India-China relationship is not adversarial, but it is not the best. You know China has never done anything adversarial to India. China has of course been assisting and arming Pakistan, which is like a red flag to India, and that already makes it a second class enemy."

3.His remarks may be read in continuation of my article of June 6,2012 titled “THE JUGULAR REALITY: INDIA’S STRATEGIC DEBATE” available at http://www.c3sindia.org/india/2932

4. According to a report carried by the “Times of India” on June 30,2012, “ Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has announced that its Chinese subsidiary, TCS China, has been listed among the '2012 Top 10 Global Service Providers in China.' The award was presented by the China Council for International Investment Promotion (CCIIP) in an award ceremony held at Nanjing, China.”

5. Speaking at the function, Qiqi Dong, CEO, TCS China, said: "We will continue to strengthen relationships with our local and multinational customers and we will keep building the right infrastructure to help drive China's full potential as a global player in IT services, outsourcing and consulting."

6. TCS, Infosys and Reliance are among the Indian companies that have been doing well in their business relations with China. The TCS web site says: “Having pioneered the Global Delivery Network Model, TCS commenced its China operations in 2002, bringing its three decades of domain experience. In 2005, TCS established a landmark joint venture in Beijing with the Chinese Government, which is considered as the role model for Chinese IT industry. Currently, TCS has three Global Delivery Centers (GDC) in China (Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai) operating at the highest quality standards. TCS has also invested in a number of technology centers in China.”

7.In the strategic debate presently on in the country to which I had drawn attention in my article, the views and assessment of Shri Tata have to be given importance. At the same time, one should not overlook the growing business interests of the TCS in China.

8. India has reasons to be gratified by the excellent name that the TCS has made in China, its winning the trust of the Chinese Government and public and the expansion of its presence in China. The increasing presence of Indian business houses in China will definitely help us in expanding our economic relations with China and in improving the State-to-State and people-to-people trust level between the two countries. One has to salute the TCS for what it has already achieved in China and wish it more success.

9. At the same time,  our respect and admiration for Shri Tata should not distort the strategic debate  and induce self-complacency in our national security related decisions vis-à-vis China. No Indian national security manager can afford to overlook the conscious role being played by China in strengthening Pakistan’s nuclear and missile capabilities, its ambivalence, if not double standards, on the question of  sovereignty over Jammu & Kashmir, its strengthening its military capabilities in Tibet and its insistence on changing the status quo in Arunachal Pradesh. The deadlock in the negotiations over the border dispute is largely attributable to its waiting for the day when it can force upon us a change in the status quo.

10. There is no historical enmity between India and China. We do not find in China and its Armed Forces the kind of anti-India mindset that we find in Pakistan and its Armed Forces. China does not fight shy of admitting its cultural and civilisational links with India and has not been rewriting its history to erase references to such links as Pakistan, its rulers and many of its scholars have been doing.

11. Intrinsically, there is no reason why India and China should not be able to get closer together provided China changes those aspects of its policies on Pakistan which  India sees as directed against its national and strategic interests. So long as it does not do so and so long as it does not show a more accommodating stand on the border dispute, we have to treat China in our national security planning and strategizing as a country of major concern.

12.We paid a heavy price for neglecting our national security interests  in our relations with China when Jawaharlal Nehru was the Prime Minister. We should not repeat that folly.

13. Yes, it is in the mutual interest to continue to strengthen the economic relations. Yes, it is necessary to increase the trust level between the two countries. But just as China all the time keeps in view what it calls its core interests in its policy-making towards India, we should all the time keep in view our core interests in our policy-making towards China.

14.I have been an advocate of improving even our security co-operation with China in certain fields such as maritime security and maritime counter-terrorism and counter-piracy. But we should see that our adherence to our core interests and our determination to protect them do not get diluted by any tendency towards romanticisation of  China. ( 10-7-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

WTP: A CHAT OF BEAUTY & GRANDEUR

B.RAMAN

As a cancer patient myself since September,2009, I feel the urge to share with my readers my thoughts after seeing the We The People discussion on cancer  anchored by Barkha Dutt, of NDTV, on the night of July 8,2012.

It had Barkha’s brilliant professional touch. She needs to be complimented for keeping it in the heart-to-heart chat format and avoiding the usual format of an elitist debate.

Cancer, like other serious diseases, is a great leveller.

It doesn’t make a distinction between the rich and the poor, between the young and the old, between men and women.

When it strikes, it strikes brutally.

Barkha’s WTP chat brought this out beautifully.

There were many moving moments during the one hour the chat lasted.

Like for example, when Pranav Arora, a young boy of 16, laughingly explained how he had forgotten his cancer.

Like for example, when a charming lady laughed and laughed---naturally and spontaneously and not compulsively--- when talking of her reaction to cancer and of her process of recovery.

Like for example, when a man who is bravely trying to recover his voice after having lost it due to throat cancer, valiantly tried to share his experiences with the viewers.

There were many other such moments of indescribable  beauty and grandeur.

When you see others heartily laughing, your natural inclination is to join them in laughing.

When I saw the big and enchanting smile of the young boy or the uproarious laughter of the charming lady, my reaction was not to join them in their smile and laughter.

It was to shed tears and cry.

Cry over the fact that these people are able to take their cancer in their stride.

Cry over the fact that these people have not allowed cancer to become a tragedy in their lives.

Cry over the fact that these people have not allowed their cancer to become the end of their world.

Cry over the fact that these people are handling their cancer with such detachment.

It requires human spirit of a tremendous order to develop such an attitude to a dreaded disease. Once you develop that attitude, the dread vanishes.

These people may not have as yet totally conquered cancer.

But they have vanquished the dread of cancer.

They have not meekly submitted to their pain.

They are defiantly staring at their pain in its face and have not allowed it to change the way they live, smile and laugh.

Let us salute them.

Let us salute Yuvraj Singh for not letting himself be overwhelmed physically and mentally by his cancer and for not letting his cancer distort his image and vision of himself and the world.

Let us salute Yuvi too for coming forward to share his pain,tears, smile and laughter with others recovering from the blow of cancer.

Let us salute Barkha and her team for giving a movingly human touch to the chat.

I have always believed in sharing.

I share readily everything with others---my joys, my sorrows, my pain, my pleasure.

When you so share, you rise sky high and feel a colossus in your mind.

We saw many colossuses last night in Barkha’s programme.

It was more than a programme.

It was a humanising experience.

( The writer has been under treatment since 2009 for a metastasised cancer of the urinary tract and nearby bones and lymphnodes. Pl. see, if you wish, his article on his cancer titled Living & Sleeping With My Cancer at

http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.in/2012/06/living-sleeping-with-my-cancer.html  )

BALOCH FREEDOM-STRUGGLE: TIME FOR NEW STRATEGY

B.RAMAN

Against great odds, the Baloch freedom-fighters, who started their second war of independence in 2005, have managed to keep up their valiant struggle for the independence of their homeland.

2.Despite repression and torture by the Pakistani Army, its Frontier Corps and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the freedom-fighters, operating in different groups under different names, have managed to steadily weaken the hold of the Pakistani security forces and intelligence in their homeland and challenge the attempts of the Pakistani authorities to deprive the Balochs of their natural resources such as the Sui gas which were being diverted for the benefit of the Punjabis.

3. Despite repeated expressions of their interest in finding a political solution to the grievances of the Balochs ranging from greater and genuine autonomy to independence, the mainstream political parties of Pakistan such as the Pakistan People’s Party of President Asif Ali Zardari and the two factions of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led by Mr.Nawaz Sharif and Chaudhury Shujat Hussain have not taken any action to withdraw the security forces from Balochistan, release all political prisoners and put an end to the obnoxious practice of missing persons.

4. Under this practice, Baloch youth perceived as hostile to the Army and the ISI are kidnapped by the intelligence agencies for illegal detention. They are projected by the police as having joined the militancy and hence missing from their homes. Weeks and months later, their mutilated bodies are found thrown in remote areas of the province.

5.The Pakistani Supreme Court as well as Pakistani human rights organisations and activists have increasingly drawn attention to the serious violations of the human rights of the Balochs and to the continuing obnoxious practice of missing persons. The Baloch grievances now receive greater attention from enlightened sections of the Pakistani society as well as political elements and human rights activists in the US and the European Union countries. In recent months, there was greater sympathy for Baloch rights in some sections of the US Congress.

6. The Baloch freedom-fighters operating from Balochistan and Baloch political activists in the Baloch diaspora in the US and Europe have for the first time succeeded in creating a growing understanding of the Baloch cause and the Baloch political and economic grievances.

7. The deterioration in the relations between Washington DC and Islamabad after the Abbottabad raid of May 2 last year by the US Navy Seals to kill Osama bin Laden also created for the first time greater empathy for the Baloch cause in sections of the US political circles. There was greater interest in what was happening in Balochistan and a greater dissemination of correct information regarding the real state of affairs in Balochistan. This was a positive gain for the Baloch freedom-struggle and a  significant strategic step forward. From a war of tactics, the freedom-struggle seemed to be moving towards a strategic war with greater thinking and debate on a Baloch vision of the future.

8. No country in the world was officially prepared to support the Baloch freedom struggle. No State could have supported the freedom struggle and the objective of an independent Balochistan. That could have been projected by Islamabad as amounting to interference in the internal affairs of Pakistan. But there was growing sympathy for the Baloch cause and vision in sections of the civil societies of different countries.

9. Despite these strategic gains of recent months, the Baloch freedom-fighters are still far from their ultimate objective of an independent Balochistan. Lack of unity among different organisations in Balochistan itself and among different diaspora groups abroad continue to stand in the way of unity of action to give a final decisive push forward to the independence struggle. Unless the persisting factionalism and ego clashes among different Baloch leaders is put an end to and a unified leadership starts guiding the movement, the enormous sacrifices being made by Balochistan’s GenNext may prove to be in vain. This is an issue that needs attention from all Baloch leaders and activists.

10. They don’t have the luxury of time. They already seem to have missed the window of opportunity provided by the intense distrust of the Pakistani Army and Intelligence in the US political and administrative circles after the Abbottabad raid and the US discovery that the Pakistan Army and its ISI, while pretending to fight against Al Qaeda and its associates, have actually been acting in collusion with them.

11. As the US Presidential elections approach in November next, the US itself as well as other NATO countries seem to be in a hurry to start the process of disengagement from Afghanistan. The recent  decision by the US to mend fences with Pakistan at least tactically if not strategically to facilitate the on-coming process of disengagement is likely to have unfortunate consequences for the Baloch freedom struggle. Those in the US, who had started evincing increasing interest in the Baloch cause and struggle, may start developing second thoughts about the wisdom of continuing to show empathy for the Balochs at a time when the US might need the co-operation of the Pakistani State to disengage from Afghanistan. At this time, when greater Baloch unity is needed, if the different groups continue to indulge in ego clashes, the State of Pakistan might be the beneficiary.

12. Since the beginning of this year, the Pakistani Army and ISI have been following an insidious new policy in Balochistan in an attempt to discredit the Baloch freedom-fighters in the eyes of Western public opinion as terrorists. There has been a wave of massacres of Shias in Balochistan---some settlers from Punjab and many members of the Hazara tribal community. Over 80 Shia fatalities have been reported in the last six months as a result of the targeted attacks on the Shias.

13. The Sunni extremist Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) of Pakistan, which had helped the Afghan Taliban in carrying out massacres of the Hazara Shias of Afghanistan before the Taliban was overthrown in 2001, has claimed responsibility for some of these massacres in Balochistan. The Pakistan Army and ISI have not taken any action against the LEJ and to protect the Shias. Instead, one could discern the beginning of an insidious campaign by the ISI to project these massacres as carried out by sections of the Baloch freedom fighters because many of the Shias had migrated from Punjab. This insidious campaign needs to be effectively countered by the Baloch activists.

14. As the NATO powers start the process of disengaging from Afghanistan and seek the co-operation of the Pakistan Army and ISI for this purpose, support for the Baloch cause in sections of Western societies may freeze and even start declining. How to prevent this is a question that needs the serious attention of the strategists of the Baloch freedom struggle. The Baloch vision will remain the same, but there is going to be a need for a new Baloch strategy to give shape to this vision at a time of unpredictable transition in Afghanistan.

15.The previous Baloch freedom struggle petered out after the Soviet disengagement from Afghanistan post-1988.History could repeat itself after the forthcoming NATO disengagement, unless the Baloch leaders unite and evolve a new strategy to meet the newly-developing situation. It has to be an indigenous strategy and not one spoon-fed from outside. (8-7-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

MY TAKE ON INDO-PAK FOREIGN SECRETARIES’ TALKS

B.RAMAN

As expected, the two-day talks between our Foreign Secretary Shri  Ranjan Mathai and his Pakistani counterpart Mr. Jalil Abbas Jilani concluded at New Delhi on July 5,2012, with an aggravation of the slanging match between the two countries on the question  of Pakistani inaction against those involved from Pakistani territory in the planning and execution of the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.

2. We already had a large volume of irrefutable evidence against elements in Pakistan which were involved in these strikes. These elements consisted of the leadership of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), one Indian  Muslim ( Abu Jundal) who had joined the LET in Pakistan, and some officers of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), who had directly or indirectly helped the LET in carrying out the terrorist strikes.

3. Fresh additions to this evidence have now come from the interrogation of Zabiuddin Ansari aka Abu Jundal aka Abu Jindal aka Abu Hamza, the Indian Muslim who was one of the fellow-conspirators along with the LET leaders and the ISI officers. After the terrorist strikes, Abu Jundal had taken up residence in Saudi Arabia posing as a Pakistani national by name Riasat Ali holding a Pakistani passport and a Pakistani national identity card.

4. He was arrested by the Saudi authorities from his hide-out in Saudi Arabia last year and was handed over to the Indian police last month after India had established on the basis of DNA tests that Riasat Ali, the so-called Pakistani national, was none other than Zabiuddin Ansari, the Indian national, who had joined the LET and participated in the 26/11 strikes.

5. The details of the conspiracy given by him have strengthened the case against seven leading cadres of the LET whom the Pakistani authorities had claimed to have arrested in a statement made by their then Interior Minister, Mr.Rehman Malik on February 12,2009, for their involvement in the strikes.

6. Pakistan’s tactics in this case has been three-fold. Firstly, to admit that the conspiracy was hatched by some members of the LET based in Pakistan and carried out with a promise to prosecute  them. Secondly, to deny that Hafiz Mohammad Sayeed, the Amir of the Jamatt-ud-Dawa (JUD), had any role in the conspiracy. They dispute India’s contention that the JUD is the political wing of the LET and insist that the JUD has nothing to do with the LET. Thirdly, to deny the involvement of the ISI as an institution or any of its officers in the conspiracy.

7. In the wake of their admission of the role of seven members of the LET in the conspiracy, they have filed a charge-sheet against them before an Ant-Terrorism Court in Pakistan. It is almost three years now since the charge-sheet was filed, but the trial has not even started. The case is being delayed due to frequent transfers of the Judge and frequent adjournments given by the Judge in disregard of the provisions of Pakistan’s Anti-Terrorism laws which lay down that no adjournments should be given in terrorism cases and that the trial should be held on a day-t-day basis in order to complete it quickly.

8. This has not been done by the Pakistani authorities who have been dragging their feet, under some pretext or the other, and avoiding a trial. In the meanwhile, there have been source reports that the arrested cadres of the LET have been active in guiding the activities of the LET in Jammu & Kashmir from their jail. The Pakistani authorities have not given a satisfactory explanation to the question as to how Abu Jundal aka Abu Hamza, whom they had arrested and charge-sheeted, managed to go to Saudi Arabia with a Pakistani passport and resume his activities on behalf of the LET even while the trial is on.

9. On the basis of the additional evidence obtained from Abu Jundal, the Government of India has renewed pressure on Pakistan to expedite the trial of the LET cadres in their custody. They have been showing no seriousness in the matter and continue to drag their feet.

10. India should not allow the matter to rest there. It should continue to step up pressure on Pakistan for an early conclusion of the trial. In the terrorist strikes of 26/11, not only many Indian nationals, but also nationals of other countries, including the US and Israel, were killed. They too have a strong interest in ensuring that the trial was quickly completed and sentence pronounced.

11. India should share with those countries the details of the disclosures of Abu Jundal and find ways of associating their investigators with the interrogation. We should also draw the attention of the UN Security Council Monitoring Committee to the non-compliance by Pakistan of the provisions of the UN Security Council Resolution No 1373 passed by the UNSC immediately after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US calling on the member-countries, inter alia, not to allow terrorists to operate from safehaven in their territory.

12. Thus, India’s follow-up action on the Abu Jundal disclosures has to be bilateral by way of stepped-up pressure on Pakistan as well as multilateral by way of pressure on the international community and action in the Minitoring Committee of the UNSC

13. Pakistan continues to deny the involvement of Hafiz Mohammad Sayeed. He was initially detained for some weeks, but ordered to be released by a court on the ground that there was no evidence against him. The US has recently announced a heavy cash reward for anyone who provides evidence that could lead to the arrest and prosecution of Sayeed. Abu Jundal must be made aware of this reward offer and told that his family in India could be eligible for this if he co-operates in the collection of evidence regarding the personal involvement of Sayeed in the 26/11 strikes.US investigators should also be encouraged to join in the interrogation of Abu Jundal on the role of Sayeed. The pressure for action against Sayeed should be kept up bilaterally as well as in association with the US Government and the relatives of the US nationals killed by the LET.

14. The problem arises with regard to the involvement of the ISI as an institution and some ISI officers in helping the LET in carrying out the terrorist strikes. Except the US, no other country of the world has any law providing for action against State-sponsors of international terrorism. When the A.B.Vajpayee-led NDA Governmenmt came to office in 1998, it had promised to issue a White Paper on Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism against India and to enact necessary laws in this matter. As Shri Vajpayee got interested in peace talks---initially with Mr. Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistani Prime Minister in 1999, and subsequently with Gen.Pervez Musharraf--- the NDA Government played down this promise, which was never implemented. Even a White Paper was not issued even though the intelligence agencies had prepared a draft.

15. There were occasions in the past---as after the March 1993 strikes in Mumbai--- when we were able to get very strong evidence against the ISI. Despite this, we were not able to act against Pakistan on this issue since the US and other members of the international community were not prepared to treat Pakistan on par with East Germany, Cuba, Iraq, Iran, Sudan and North Korea in respect of action for the involvement of their intelligence agencies in acts of terrorism.

16.It would be naïve on our part to think that the State of Pakistan would incriminate itself and its intelligence agencies by accepting the correctness of the disclosures of Headley of the Chicago cell of the LET and now Abu Jundal in this matter.

17. Countries which are the targets of terrorism sponsored by the intelligence agencies of other countries have the diplomatic and operational options. Only the US and France were able to use the diplomatic option against Libya in response to the role of the Libyan intelligence in the blowing-up of their civilian aircraft. No other country in the world has ever succeeded in dealing with the problem of State-sponsored terrorism through the diplomatic option alone. India does not have the diplomatic clout either with Pakistan or with the international community. Hence, it is unlikely to succeed.

18. Israel too is repeatedly the target of State-sponsored terrorism. It too does not have the diplomatic option. It, therefore, relies on the operational option provided by its intelligence agencies. It uses the covert action capability of its intelligence agencies as a deniable deterrent power to deter acts of terrorism mounted against Israel from other countries. This deniable deterrent power consists of the ability to carry out  decapitation strikes against anti-Israeli foreign terrorists operating from sanctuaries in foreign countries.

19.We had a deniable deterrent power in the form of a limited covert action capability till 1997.This capability was used with some effectiveness by Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Chandrasekhar and Narasimha Rao.It has not been used after Narasimha Rao and was discarded by I.K.Gujral. Subsequent Prime Ministers did not have the stomach to revive  and use it. Unless we do so, we will continue to project a pathetic picture of ourselves in our helplessness in the face of the continued use of terrorism by Pakistan against India.

20. No dossier, no Headley, no Abu Jundal and no amount of dramatic TV debates will help in countering Pakistan’s use of terrorism against India. Only an effective and deniable deterrent power in the form of our capability to carry out deniable covert actions against terrorists based in Pakistani territory can help. It would be a justified act of self-defence for which there is considerable support in international law.( 6-7-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )