ZARDARI IN CHINA: FOCUS ON SINDH

B.RAMAN

President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan was in Beijing from June 5 to 7,2012, to attend the summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) of which Pakistan, like India, Iran and Afghanistan, is an observer. It has sought regular membership of the SCO on which no decision has so far been taken.

2. Zardari combined his visit for the SCO summit with a bilateral visit for talks with Chinese leaders and businessmen on bilateral relations. Among the Chinese leaders he met for bilateral discussions were President Hu Jintao and Vice-President Xi Jinping.

3. The official Xinhua news agency reported that during his meeting with  Zardari on June 7, Hu said  that China encouraged and supported its enterprises to participate in energy and electric power projects in Pakistan. He hoped that the two countries would deepen pragmatic cooperation, especially in the sectors of trade, energy, transportation infrastructure construction, agriculture, telecommunications, aerospace and technology. Xinhua quoted Hu as saying: “China will continue to provide assistance for Pakistan's economic and social development within our capacity."

4.According to the Agency, Hu called on the two countries to improve law-enforcement and security cooperation, and jointly fight the "three evil forces" of terrorism, separatism and extremism.

5.Zardari thanked China for its support of Pakistan's maintenance of domestic stability and development as well as China's assistance to Pakistan when the country was affected by floods and earthquakes. He invited  Chinese enterprises to expand their investments in Pakistan, especially in infrastructure construction and the energy sector.

6.As Pakistani leaders normally do during their interactions with their Chinese counterparts, Zardari was reported to have re-affirmed continued Pakistani support to China’s core interests without specifying what those interests are. The Associated Press of Pakistan reported that during his meeting with Hu, Zardari proposed the creation of an Energy Fund to finance energy-related projects in Pakistan to be undertaken by Chinese companies.

7.During Zardari’s stay in Beijing, officials of the two countries signed three  memoranda of understanding (MoUs) covering supply of water from Tarbela to Islamabad, the establishment of a Special Economic Zone in the proposed new city Zulfikarabad in Sindh and the building there of 6,000 flats   on private public partnership basis. They also signed  an agreement for Chinese assistance in the  de-silting of canals and barrages in the Sindh province.

8.The APP reported that during his meeting with Vice-President Xi, Zardari conveyed  the gratitude of the people and the Government of Pakistan for China’s unflinching support to Pakistan’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.

9.During the previous visits of Zardari to China, the focus of the discussions was on Chinese assistance to Pakistan for infrastructure development in Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan and for the construction of oil-gas pipelines and a railway line connecting   Xinjiang with the Chinese-constructed Gwadar port on the Mekran coast of Balochistan.

10.During the present visit, the focus was on possible Chinese assistance for infrastructure and development projects in Sindh. Due to the deteriorating  security situation in Balochistan, the proposed projects to connect Gwadar with Xinjiang seem to be held up. The Chinese appear to be going ahead only with the upgradation of the Karakoram Highway across Gilgit-Baltistan and construction of roads to improve connectivity inside Gilgit-Baltistan.

11.Due to the continuing activities of the Uighur separatists in Xinjiang from sanctuaries in Pakistan’s Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the Chinese have restrained their enthusiasm for projects to improve connectivity between Xinjiang and the jihadi belt in Pakistan. ( 8-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

US SEARCH FOR PILOTS MISSING IN ACTION IN ARUNACHAL PRADESH

B.RAMAN

According to JPAC (Joint POW/MIA Accounting Command)   of the US, 78,000 Americans are still missing from World War II, 1,632 of them in the China/Burma/India theatre. It is believed that about 430 of these, mainly World War II pilots of the US Air Force, died in plane crashes in India’s Arunachal Pradesh while carrying out air-drops in the Kachin State of North Burma and ferrying supplies to the KMT troops in Yunnan.

2. In the beginning of 2008, when Mr.George Bush was the President of the US, the BBC reported that a US team was visiting  Arunachal Pradesh  to search for the remains of the US pilots. It quoted the then US Consul-General in Kolkata, Mr.Henry Jardine, as saying that the mission  "was in its preliminary stages". He added: "We are just going to Arunachal Pradesh to speak to various people in the government who could help in the search." The BBC reported that the groundwork for the investigation mission to Arunachal Pradesh was done during a meeting between US and Indian officials in New Delhi in March, 2008.

3.JPAC spokesman Major Brian DeSantis  was quoted by the BBC as saying that during the New Delhi meeting, the officials of the two countries discussed a tentative timeline for future investigations and identification of aircraft crash sites. He added: "Now our team is going to Arunachal Pradesh to discuss details of future operations with Ministry of Defence and Arunachal Pradesh officials. This will be followed by site visits in early fall [autumn] to determine the scope of debris fields and evaluate unique logistical requirements associated with each site. This process sets the groundwork for future recovery teams."

4.These developments caused concern in Beijing which interpreted them as implying  US recognition of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as its territory and describes as southern Tibet, as Indian territory.

5.A commentary broadcast on March 25,2008, by the China Radio International  criticised the US for its plans to search for American airmen missing in action during the Second World War, in “Arunachal Pradesh, the so-called Province set up forcibly and illegally by India in Chinese territory”. Declaring that the  ‘Chinese Government has never recognised the legality of this province’, it alleged that after a change in its  stand ( of allowing the US to undertake searches) in January 2008, India was cooperating with US in this regard, scheduling a meeting between the two sides in New Delhi in March 2008.

6.The commentary claimed that the Indian Intelligence Bureau had opposed the US idea from the point of view of the region’s sensitivity, particularly in respect of entry of foreigners, but the Ministry of Home Affairs of the Government of India had rejected the IB’s reservations.  

7.The Commentary described New Delhi’s motivations in this regard as attempting to strengthen military ties with Washington and legalise the status of Arunachal Pradesh as an Indian province, expecting that this would  contribute to an increase in India’s weight in the ongoing negotiations with China on the disputed border. The US motivations, according to the Commentary, were to further develop its military relations with India and use the Arunachal issue as means to restrain China’s intentions.

8.An Indian news agency report of February 25,2010, quoted US Consular officials in India as appreciating the cooperation of the Indian government, the Indian Air Force and the state government of Arunachal Pradesh with US defence teams searching for the remains of US  pilots  in Arunchal Pradesh.

9.The agency report said that the searches under the Joint POW/missing-in-action Accounting Command were being conducted in different parts of Arunachal Pradesh as a humanitarian mission. The report further quoted a US Consular official as saying: "No remains have so far been found, but we will continue the search.”

10.The weekly “India Today” reported on July 22,2011, that President Barack Obama  had suspended search and recovery expeditions into Arunachal Pradesh after complaints from the Chinese. The “India Today” reported as follows: “Chinese concerns over what it sees as American “intrusion” into Arunachal Pradesh have prompted the Obama administration to suspend plans for recovering bodies of crewmen who went missing there during the Second World War. Two expeditions planned in 2010 and 2011 were cancelled ostensibly because of the Chinese claiming that this was disputed territory. China considers the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as ‘South Tibet’ and protested expeditions by India and the US to recover the bodies of over 400 US aircrew who died in crashes while flying resupply missions between Assam and Kunming, China, during the war.”

11.It added: “After pressure from the families of those who perished, joint operations to recover the remains of servicemen were started by the US and India in late 2008. The operations were, however, inexplicably cancelled by both governments in 2010 and 2011. The US has also put on hold joint military exercises in Arunachal Pradesh.”

12. Coinciding with the two-day visit of Mr.Leon Panetta, US Defence Secretary, to New Delhi that concluded on June 6,2012, sections of the media in India and the US have reported that the Obama Administration has made a fresh request to New Delhi for permission to resume the searches in Arunachal Pradesh.

13.They have quoted  Syed Akbaruddin, spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs of the Government of India, as saying as follows: " (There has been )a request by the US, in the North East they perhaps would like to visit some places where there are remains of perhaps  what they feel   pilots who were involved in WWII. This is not a new request. We have had a similar request several years ago and at that stage we did permit some officials to visit there. They did not find anything at that time. Perhaps they have some further information (now). It is a humanitarian cause and it is dealt as humanitarian issue not only by us but by several neighbours. We need to respond in a humanitarian manner."

14.There has been no official announcement on this so far, but the reported media briefing by the spokesperson confirms the receipt of a request from the Obama Administration for permission to resume the searches and indicates that the Government of India’s response would be positive.

15.This is a significant development indicating that the Obama Administration has overcome  its reservations of the last two years because of the Chinese sensitivities  in this matter and decided to send US search teams back into Arunachal Pradesh. It would be interesting to see how China reacts to it. ( 7-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

THE JUGULAR REALITY: INDIA’S STRATEGIC DEBATE

B.RAMAN

For over a year now, a strategic debate has been going on in Delhi on future threat scenarios relating to State and non-State actors.

2. Our preoccupation till now has been with the continuing threats from the State of Pakistan and from the jihadi terrorist organisations nursed by it. It has also been with China’s continuing collusion with Pakistan and the dangers of a two-front war arising therefrom.

3. The debate has been between a group of classical thinkers and a new generation of thinkers who perceive themselves to be forward-looking and visionary.

4. The classical thinkers do not underestimate the implications of increasing Chinese military and cyber activism. They are worried over the sustained pace of modernisation of the Chinese armed forces and Bejing’s economic clout which enables it to pursue its agenda of power projection.

5.They are equally worried over the increasing Chinese military capabilities in the outer and cyber space . They are, therefore, all for paying additional attention to measures required for strengthening our capabilities vis-à-vis China----by way of infrastructure development, modernisation of our Armed Forces, intelligence agencies and cyber capabilities and revamping our diplomatic skills required to deal with a rising China.

6. To some measure, there is  a convergence of thinking between the classical thinkers and the forward-looking. The forward-looking thinkers are even more worried about China than about Pakistan and want India to take not only the conventional measures outlined above, but even go far ahead by way of building up strategic convergences and co-ordinated thinking with other powers  such as the US, Japan. South Korea and Australia.

7. The new generation of strategic thinkers looks upon our present focus on Pakistan to be over-done and advocate mid-course corrections in order to be able to divert more resources for coping with China.

8. Both the classical and new generation thinkers are agreed  that “how to cope with the rising China---politically, economically and militarily” should be the central question in our strategic debates. However, whereas the new generation of thinkers tends to take a more relaxed attitude towards Pakistan without letting an obsession with Pakistan distort our strategic thinking, the classical thinkers keep cautioning that in our anxiety over the implications of a rising China, we should not forget our painful historical experiences because of the compulsive hostility of the Pakistani State and non-State actors towards India.

9. According to the classical thinkers, there has been no historical enmity between India and China. China’s interests are limited to asserting  what it claims to be   its sovereignty over certain border areas as in Arunachal Pradesh. It also wants to ensure that no threats could arise to its control over Tibet from the Tibetan diaspora in India. Beyond that, they feel, it has no objective of wanting to keep India weak and divided by adding to its internal security problems.

10. On the other hand, Pakistan’s hostility to India is historical and multi-dimensional relating to Jammu & Kashmir and its objective of keeping India weak and divided by constantly adding to its internal security problems.

11. Whoever may be the ruler of Pakistan and whatever may be the overtures and concessions made by India, the “go for India’s jugular” instinct of Pakistan should remain the constant worrisome factor in India’s strategic thinking and planning. So, the classical thinkers feel. That is what an operational and intellectual giant of the R&AW whom I worship told me during a chat.

12. By all means, we should be able to cope with China better so that we don’t become a second rate power of Asia, but in our anxiety on this count, we should not let our capability to protect our jugular from Pakistan be weakened.

13. It is a timely and healthy debate. It is hoped it will lead to a healthy mix of our strategic priorities. (6-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

TIBETANS FRUSTRATED BY OBAMA’S AMBIVALENCE ON TIBET

 

B.RAMAN

Tibetans, both in the occupied Tibetan areas of China and in the diaspora, are increasingly frustrated by what they perceive as the ambivalent attitude of President Barack Obama on the continued unrest in the Tibetan areas of China and the violations of the human rights of the Tibetans by Beijing.

2.The Obama Administration, like its predecessor administrations, treats His Holiness the Dalai Lama with due courtesies during his periodic visits to Washington DC. These courtesies include unofficial meetings between the President and His Holiness.

3. The Obama Administration has also been periodically voicing its unhappiness and concern over the continued violations of the human rights of the Tibetans by Beijing and urging it to resume  the now-stalled  talks with the representatives of His Holiness.

4. But the Tibetans expected  a greater activism by the US in view of the increasingly grim situation prevailing in the Tibetan areas since March 2011 following the protests of the monks of the Kirti monastery in Sichuan against the continued Han colonisation of the Tibetan areas. The monks have also been demanding the return of His Holiness to Lhasa to take over the religious leadership of his people.

5. This grim situation has been marked by nearly 40 self-immolation attempts by both Tibetan men and women, detention without trial of defiant monks of the Kirti monastery in a military camp of Sichuan and forcibly subjecting many monks and others to what the Chinese call re-education. During these re-education classes, they are forced to denounce His Holiness and swear loyalty to the Chinese Government and Communist Party.

6. This grim situation, which initially started in Sichuan, subsequently spread to Qinghai and Gansi and is recently showing signs of spreading to Lhasa in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) bordering on India and Nepal. Lhasa saw two self-immolation attempts on May 27 by monks who had come from outside the TAG.

7. Sources say that following the incidents in Lhasa, nearly about 3000 members of the Chinese security forces have undertaken house-to-house enquiries to locate and arrest Tibetans who had come to Lhasa  from outside the TAG and send them back to their provinces. About 600 local monks and others have reportedly been rounded up and shifted to a military camp of Lhasa for so-called re-education.

8. The details of the grim situation are well known to international human rights organisations, including the Human Rights Watch of the US. They have been highlighting these violations and demanding for over a year that international human rights observers should be allowed to visit the detention camp set up by Beijing in Sichuan, but the Chinese authorities have ignored these demands with contempt.

9. They have also been ignoring with contempt the periodic exhortations from Washington DC to resume talks with the representatives of His Holiness. The Chinese have repeatedly made it clear that any talks with the representatives of His Holiness will be on the personal future of His Holiness and not on the future of the Tibetan areas under Chinese occupation. They do not recognise the right of His Holiness to negotiate on behalf of the Tibetan people.

10. In the face of this political deadlock and deteriorating human rights situation, Tibetan hopes that during her recent visit to Beijing  Mrs. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, would take up vigorously the grim human rights situation in the Tibetan areas were belied.

11. It is this disappointment and frustration that are reflected in the decision on May 31,2012, of two senior advisers of His Holiness ---- Lodi Gyari and Kelsang Gyaltsen--- to resign from leadership positions in the team constituted by His Holiness to hold talks with the authorities of the Chinese Communist Party from time to time.

12.In an announcement, they  "expressed their utter frustration over the lack of positive response from the Chinese side.” While they have attributed their resignations, which have been accepted by the Tibetan Government-in-exile, to their frustration over the negative Chinese attitude, it is reliably understood that the hesitation of the Obama Administration to vigorously take up with Beijing the grim human rights situation has also contributed to their frustration, but they have not mentioned so in public.

13.His Holiness, who is no longer involved in the day-to-day running of the Government-in-exile, has not so far commented on the resignations, but it is unlikely that the two would have taken the decision without informally consulting His Holiness beforehand. Beijing is unlikely to be moved by their resignations. It is to be seen what impact it has on the Obama Administration.

14.A statement issued by the Government-in-exile after accepting their resignations  urged Beijing to accept the Dalai Lama's "middle-way" approach, which seeks genuine autonomy for Tibetans within China and within the framework of the Chinese constitution. It said: "This is a win-win proposition, which contributes to PRC’s unity, stability, harmony and its peaceful rise in the world."

15.The Tibetan task force on the negotiations with Beijing will be expanded and will meet again in December to discuss the Chinese leadership transition with the hope of continuing a dialogue with the new Chinese leaders to peacefully resolve the issue of Tibet, the statement said.

16. The Tibetans see no likelihood of any forward movement in addressing the grievances of the Tibetans in view of the forthcoming leadership transition in Beijing and the US Presidential elections. The Government-in-exile has, therefore, decided to wait till the end of the year. What impact this will have on the grim ground situation in the Tibetan areas  remains to be seen.(5-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )